Major League Ready

I was against doing anything beyond shoring up the BP last year. I share your opinion that being in first place in a very bad division does not make them a real contender. It will put such a team in the playoffs and there is the argument that anything can happen but hoping a bad team is all the sudden good is not a good plan. I would have never made the Mahle trade. The thing that remains the same is that they do have a roster with potential, but they don't have much of a chance against the elite teams in the playoffs. While I would not invest a lot in such a team, I also would not be inclined to sell.

I could see it if they could get a big overpay but they are not going to just sell off. This team is underperforming offensively and there are a couple teams most years that get on track the 2nd half of the season.

IDK if it's his pace but I definitely noticed he left too many pitches over the heart of the plate.

No doubt we can't change what has happened. I also agree there is a good chance of different results going forward. However, I responding to your post that suggested "This team would be 3-5 games under .500 without him." That's where we disagree. I think Julien or Wallner would have produced at least as well if not better.

If we use your mid point of 4 wins he would produce 9 wins for the season should he repeat his production to this point for the rest of the season. His wRC+ is 101 so he has been an average offensive player with no defensive value. Do you think we could produce league average offense or better out of the DH spot between Wallner / Julien or Larnach or a combination of those three and others? The way I see it he has had virtually no value this season. His .5 WAR also suggests he has produced very meager value this year.

Buxton was good the 1st 5 weeks of the season. Since 5/5 his wRC+ is 41. Willi Castro is 108. I am not inclined to say we are getting "plenty of value from Buxton just hitting". He is a black hole in the lineup the past 6 weeks.

Remember how insistent some people were that Buxton would never resign here either.

Agree completely with every part of this post. I have wanted to get rid of Kepler for the last year. I just don't think creating a spot for Larnach is a reason to DFA him.

You might be right. None of us really knows but I tend to believe players are going to be very sympathetic to career preservation. That's the boat they are all in. Sure, they like to win but the opportunity for enormous money is their common interest. Kepler has proven to be an average or even slightly above average player. DFAing a proven player at this point in the season for an unproven rookie is questionable. Players definitely feel you earn the right to be there and Kepler has earned the right as compared to a player with 600 major league ABs and a career 2 WAR. Let me say again, it would not bother me one bit if they DFAed Kepler. I have been advocating trading him since last year. However, I also understand why they optioned Larnach instead of DFAing Kepler. Also keep in mind this tangent started with someone bitching about them "jacking around" Larnach. He has not earned the right to be here over a proven veteran just yet. I wish he would.

I wouldn't mind if they DFAed Kepler but that is not without ramifications. Other players probably would not react well to one of the longest tenured players on the team being cut in that matter. Especially given Larnach's performance is just not all that different from Kepler's if we consider Kepler's defense in the equation. It also could be the death of his career and other players are going to be sympathetic and biased. It also a permanent move. Depth will be lost. It's a somewhat reckless move given the much safer alternative of optioning Larnach.

He has been getting better and better offensively. The last 4 weeks his line is 286 / 400 / 531 with a 931 OPS. Who else do we have anywhere near a 400 OBP? The defense is bad and will hurt in run prevention, but the run creation will hopefully significantly outweigh the defense short cummings. It would appear that he has a better eye than a lot of the umpires. He has had a lot of bad calls. He will be even better if that does not happen quite as often as it has lately. BTW .... Coirrea's OPS over the past 4 weeks is .895. That's helping too. Now, if Buxton can get going we will really have something.

Larnach is 13th on the team in wRC+. Why should that level of performance guarantee him a roster spot? What roster move would you have made instead? Are you going DFA Kepler / Gallo / Salano / Farmer or MAT instead of sending Larnach down. Julien has been one of our best Offensive players and it makes sense that he be on the roster while Polanco is on the IL. Castro has been valuable in a number of ways. So, what would you have done? 1 Matt Wallner 215 2 Alex Kirilloff 143 3 Edouard Julien 139 4 Joey Gallo 124 5 Ryan Jeffers 119 6 Donovan Solano 117 7 Byron Buxton 114 8 Royce Lewis 110 9 Jorge Polanco 104 10 Kyle Farmer 103 11 Carlos Correa 101 12 Michael A. Taylor 97 13 Trevor Larnach 94 14 Willi Castro 94 15 Kyle Garlick 78 16 Max Kepler 76 17 Jose Miranda 66 18 Christian Vazquez 59

Why not just use Maeda in the BP?

Sure are a lot of people who want to compare Rosario after leaving to Rosario prior to leaving which is absolutely irrelevant. How has he been since leaving. The answer is he has been one of the worst corner OFers in the league. How could it possibly be a mistake to have moved on from a player that has absolutely sucked? We have not had great replacements for Rosario but pretty much everyone they have put out there have been better than Rosario has played since leaving. BA is a very incomplete measure of run production. It's actually pretty useless. Gallo's wRC+ is 123 this year. Rosario's is 84. Not only does his slugging justify the the BA discrepency, Gallo is a grossly superior defender. It's just shocking anyone can look at how Rosario has performed since leaving and come up with moving on from Rosario was a bad thing.

I am in the tough call camp. I would not rely on any of the potential replacements to be his equal. I have modest confidence if Lewis were to be the replacement. It comes down to return for me. Trading him at the deadline this year would require a nice return package. We can always revisit this next year. There is the depth argument. The replacements are all players that could contribute. If we can get a good return, building from within is ideal. That's how Tampa has been putting a great product on the field.

Everyone is raving about Skenes. Hard to imagine the two prep bats going in front of Skenes. Someone might get cute with an under slot signing in the first couple picks. However, he also might just go first overall, and he does not make it past the 3rd pick.

Less than a month away. Really excited to see what they get with those first 3 picks. It looks like they are going to get a prep player at 5. I am hoping a great college bat is there at 34. Yet, I would be happy to get Dillion Head (HS). My dream scenario is Langford falls in our lap at 5 and we get Dillion Head at 34. There are several pitchers that look good that generally mock from 42-55. Add Sykora/Owens or Sanders at 49 and that's one heck of a draft. I guess if we are dreaming of the perfect scenario Cameron Johnson is still there at 49.

I think playoff revenue could influence what they do. I agree with those you listed including Gray but I think they might hold onto Gray and extend a qualifying offer. This helps them get to the playoffs and gives them a shot at signing Gray to a 2-3 year deal. Now, if they get the right haul, I am totally with you on moving him. Kepler is the one they really need to move to give Wallner and Larnach a shot. They won't get much but I think they will find a partner if he hits slightly above league average. Would they trade both Gallo and Kepler. I could see Gallo bring a pretty decent return. IDK if they will let Polanco go. It would be an entirely different story if Julien was not so rough at 2B. I could get behind if the return is right because there is a decent chance Miranda ends up back at 3B and they could move Lewis / Julien to 2B. Lee could be a year or more out but his presence in the not-too-distant future also makes trading Polanco more palatable. Severino could be in the mix as well. We also could have one heck of a versatile bench in the near future. Farmer / Gordon / Castro and hopefully Martin would allow the Twins to be more aggressive in making changes.

Dillion Head looks great. I would also add Colton Ledbetter to this list.

There you go being objective again. Perhaps you are unfamiliar with the tactic of only looking at the instances that support a narrative. Just to expand on where you went with this ... The biggest failures of this team to this point in the season are Correa and Buxton. Both signings were very popular here. One could even say that most posters here were quite insistent the front office sign these players. Their additions Gallo / MAT / Solano / Farmer and Stewart have all been quite good. The best performing player ( Kirilloff) was written off by the majority here and many called for them to sign a replacement. The one decision we as a group had right was Pagan. Then again, posters here would have supported resigning Fulmer and dumping Pagan. Fulmer has been worse.

Mahle has had one season where he resembled a top of the rotation arm. It's a problem if they can't replace Mahle from within between Raya / Prelipp / Festa / SWR and perhaps even Canterino. At this stage in the building process, they need to aim higher in free agency. The best use of available funds might turn out to be an impact bat and/or back of the BP additions.

Why would you assume they would trade all seven. The context seems pretty clear you could trade any of those seven or even two or three of them. None of them are core players beyond this year so trading any of them or even all of them would be irrelevant in any long-term rebuild.

Selling in a given season does not equate to a tear down. Did they go into a rebuild when they traded Cruz for Joe Ryan? They could trade expiring players in Gallo / Kepler / Solano and Maeda. Mahle is coming off at the end of the year as well so that's five 40 man spots going away. They could also trade Polanco and play Castro or Farmer or Julien at 2B. They could trade Gray if the offer was good enough.

Most people here would hate their practices. They draft pretty well but the largest portion of their WAR comes from acquiring prospects or players that have reached the ML level but are not proven. I define this as never having produced 1.5 War prior to being acquired. If we were to follow their practices, we would have the added advantage of spending an extra $70M/year on extending core players and signing free agents. Many say we can’t draft and develop like them but the difference is not in drafting. They make Arreaz / Berrios like trades and get great value. They constantly cycle RPs that have failed elsewhere. They also indentify and acquire older prospects like Raley / Arozarena and get them to perform. Here is a breakdown of their top players by WAR and how they were acquired. BTW .... TfP signifies Trade for Prospect. Source WAR Wander Franco Intl 3.2 Yandy Diaz TfP 2.1 Randy Arozarena TfP 2.1 Josh Lowe Draft 1.9 Luke Raley TfP 1.8 Jose Siri TfP 1.4 Isaac Paredes TfP 1.4 Taylor Walls Draft 0.9 Harold Ramirez TfP 0.9 Christian Bethancourt TfP 0.6 Brandon Lowe Draft 0.6 Shane McClanahan Draft 1.5 Zach Eflin FA 1.5 Drew Rasmussen TfP 1.4 Taj Bradley Draft 1.1 Jeffrey Springs TfP 0.7 Kevin Kelly TfP 0.5 Acquired by: WAR % of WAR Drafted 6 26.8% International Draft 3.2 14.3% Trade for Prospect 11.7 52.2% Free Agent 1.5 6.7% Trade for Proven 0 0.0%

He was also fired by Detroit when he managed the Mud Hens and no other team has employed him since then. The facts do not exactly support your conclusion.