Dman

Emmanual Rodriguez was quite the pleasant surprise last year. I mean you could see it coming to some degree as he had an .870 OPS in the FCL but that came with a hefty 37% K rate. The walk rate was good (15%) as well but at that time it looked like there might be a massive hole in his swing/contact issues. It wasn't completely surprising given he was just 18 years old having skipped the DSL due to Covid and starting in the FCL. He still put his name on the prospect map with those numbers but it usually takes a while to fix contact issues and sometimes they never get fixed (i.e. Keoni Cavaco). How did he get so good so fast? He dropped his K rate to 26% and increased his walk rate to 29%. So he took more walks than he struck out and that raised his OnBase percentage and IMO increased his BABIP because he waited for good pitches to hit and he made more contact. Interestingly his slugging wasn't all that different from the year before. His plate discipline turned him from a flawed batter to an elite batter. There is a long way to go with tougher changeups and curves to face but he is far ahead of players his age at this point. If he continues to rake at High A and makes AA this year he could have super star potential as I believe he has an elite hard hit rate right now and if he controls the zone and doesn't get himself out he is going to be tough for pitchers to get out. I see lot's more walks in this man's future. Law had him number 1 in his Twins top 30 list and I think he is worthy but would like to see one more elite season out of him before going there. Emmanual Rodriguez could be the difference making bat the Twins have been looking for since Justin Morneua.

I might be in the minority but I don't mind the runner on 2nd rule. Technically if they want to speed things up it should probably be the runner on 1st and 2nd rule as most teams walk the next batter to have force outs in play. There are lot's of ways they could do it but I am fine with the rule that helps bullpens stay intact. I mean if they really wanted to not go past 9 innings they could just give the team with the most hits the victory. That would promote more batters that can just get hits versus the occasional HR. If hits are tied go to the team with the most walks wins it. .That gives walks more value as well. Don't like walks then the team with the fewest K's wins it to promote less striking out. Anyway for the regular season to stop games from going long I am fine with the man on second rule. I also think putting some limit on position players pitching isn't a horrible thing. Don't want to promote using it as a strategy IMO. Rules change in sports all the time and generally they make the game better.

I think an extra lefty wouldn't be a bad idea. I am not sure Hand would have been my ideal candidate but one more lefty reliever seems like a good idea for a club that wanted to add depth to all positions. I don't love Hand's peripherals but the sub 3 ERA outcome I could certainly live with. If the price is right and it is Hand or no one else then I would grab him. Vets can be valuable and having another lefty in case of injury makes a good deal of sense IMO. Hopefully the Twins help him find something extra and he rebounds finding more bat missing K's

I wasn't able to really watch him much so just have box scores to go on. He was young for the A ball level and pitched like a guy drafted out of the college ranks there. Stat line looks good all across with an excellent K\9 and WHIP solid ERA and not quite so kind FIP. Would have liked to see that ERA a bit lower as pitchers are protected somewhat in A ball but this being his first full year it makes sense to have more variation. The HR ball bit him a little, not horribly bad, but that is what brought his ERA and FIP up. If he cleans that up the stat line looks elite. He has solid command of all of his pitches and just needs more experience pitching at higher levels to sharpen his skills. If he is who the Twins seem to think he is he could be a mid to top of rotation starter. Hoping that arm stays healthy and can go the distance. This system needs all the potential high end starters they can find.

Those rules make sense to me. It always stinks when a team is down to position players pitching. I don't mind the ghost runner rule as it adds more consistency to when a game ends. Unless baseball just wants to go with tie games then I think the ghost runner rule is an acceptable solution. If your team can't get a guy in from second with three chances you probably don't deserve to win anyway. Also you had 9 innings to prove you were the better team and you didn't so I guess I don't feel too bad about the results for ghost runner games. Lot's of sports have tie breaker rules it is what it is IMO.

Not sure what to think about the pen. I have been back and forth pretty much on the fence about it all offseason. My only thought is that it would have been nice to find a solid to elite lefty just in case Theilbar gets injured or falls off a cliff and or Moran falls apart. For righties they have some depth with Henriquez, Winder, Sands, Dobnak, Varland, SWR, etc. So there are arms back there for them to use and if they are using 40 man spots on those guys they should try to figure out if they can play or be useful at the MLB level or not. There will be more players that need to added for next year and 40 man spots are valuable. I just hope the pen will stay in the top 4 all year this year. This team might have trouble scoring runs so the pen is going to be important IMO.

It is all about the bat for Jullien. Defense is never going to be plus it doesn't look like. He is an interesting bat and I can't say I have seen a player quite like him before. He walks (20%) Almost as much and he K's (25%). He hits for Average (.300) with incredibly high and usually unsustainably high BABIP's (.393) and yet he slugs around .490. It is an unconventional approach if you ask me and yet level after level he appears to be sustaining it. I have my doubts he can continue to be "that" good but it certainly seems like his eye at the plate is going to lift all stats so to speak. He has been incrediably consistent with his offensive approach so far and it will be interesting to see how it plays out at AAA and likley MLB. I hope he can keep this up and become an elite bat for the Twins but these last two levels are tough. Hopefully his approach wins out.

I thought Law gave good honest evals for his rankings. I agree with others that I was surprised he kept Martin where he was for the most part. He clearly thinks Martin's wrist hasn't been healthy and feels his and others initial evaluations from the draft have him as an elite contact hitter and he obviously still believes his initial assessment of the player is correct. Have to give him props for hanging in there with initial evals and not falling for possible growing pains. He might be the only one. I know I am losing my confidence in Martin but as all us prospect watcher's say let's see if he can break out this year. Again he hangs with Balazovich who from past evals I didn't think he was overly sold on. I thought for sure he would drop him maybe even out of the top 20 as I thought in the past he always questioned Jordon's ability to repeat his delivery and maintain his control. Seemed like a told ya so moment, but he passed on it. So yeah definitely confused by him giving those players the benefit of the doubt but if they were injured then he has a solid point. I thought his eval for Lee was spot on. I too question Lee's ability to get to his power and short isn't likely his long term home. He still liked Lee's eye and bat and I do as well. Number 2 isn't bad. Still I was surprised he jumped Rodriguez to number 1. I haven't really got to see Rodriguez play so hard to evaluate anything but the numbers. It seems those who have seen him play though come away impressed and Law is no exception. On paper he looks like a five tool player in right field with an elite OBP percentage, plus power, plus arm, plus runner and fielder. The only player that could rival him at this point would be Lewis who Law is undecided on giving him the number 3 spot and not including him in the top 100. I know he is kind of low man on Wallner but I am with him there to some degree. Wallner has improved his eye at the plate getting the walks he needs to offset the K's but there is still a lot of contact missing Swings in Wallner's stroke and he will see fewer fastballs at the MLB level. Just ask Larnach and Kirillioff. Has to find a way to get better contact on pitches other than fastballs. Still Wallner is starting to make me a believer. He improved his eye the plate now he just needs to work on contact. Hopefully this is the year it all comes together. While he ranked him at 19 I thought he gave De Andrade a nice review. He certainly views him more favorably than I do. Lot's of guys in our system that need better quality contact. Law was kind to a few guys with down years. Will be fun to see what these guys do this year.

He has the pitches to be a starter. His stats at AA can't be dismissed and they are really good especially for a hitter's league. The changeup looks like it will be plus and curve and slider could end up plus with more work but the fastball velocity is far from elite. Still I can't argue with the 2.77 ERA and 1.05 WHIP at AA. He is hard to hit and while it would be nice if he had a bit better control he got the job done last year. Still he got sick mid season and in the past we have seen his arm wear down. If he can't keep it going then he looks more reliever than starter. He did manage 107 innings last year and hopefully he can add on to that at AAA this year. I want to say he is a starter but I need to see more stamina to be confident saying that. Even Law felt uncertain of his status as a starter and he didn't feel he had a plus pitch though I disagree with that. He could be special if he puts it all together. I will be watching him closely this year.

Yes and despite all his flaws that evaluators talked about he became the American League batting Champion. Just an amazing bat and eye for contact. He will be missed by all the fans who enjoyed what he brought to the team. As others have said these lists are just somewhat educated guess's and hopeful projection. A good number of top 100 players do make a difference but a lot of guys that were somewhat written off for one reason or another impact teams as well. It is an inexact science but I still love following the players and hope everyone of them finds a way to get to the majors. Unfortunately I have seen more of them not make it than make it.

First let me say I love your optimism and it certainly beats pessimism. When I first found TD I didn't really know how to follow prospects and I dreamed that pretty much every prospect in the top 30 was going to make it. It took a while but reality eventually settles in. Most of these guys don't make it. Some get too injured to keep going, some hang onto the fringes of rosters but eventually bite the dust and then yes some make it as OK to average players and a few make it as Stars or super stars. Here is a good little article that gives a few stats on top 100 players. Below is a screen shot of the Twins top 10 prospects in 2018. There were times we were talking about Romero and Gonsalves being mid rotation starters. Javier as the Twins Shortstop of the future. Rooker and Diaz as light tower power bats looking to bat cleanup at the MLB level. As you can see all of these players are still out their on the fringes but the outlook is grim. Lewis has yet to play a full heathy season since 2019. Gordon isn't considered a starter yet but is a super utility player. Kirilloff hasn't been healthy in several years now. Graterol was traded and is a good reliever but I don't know about great. Enlow isn't even on the 40 man anymore. There is still some hope left in this list especially Lewis but most of these players just were not the difference makers we all hoped they would be. To me that is the reality of prospects. It is really, really hard to become an MLB player. Those that do are special IMO. Still given my fairly brief glimpse into the prospect world hope and reality can collide quickly and the outcome generally is another player that didn't make it. Still it is fun to dream on these guys and how they might help the Twins. It is why we come to TD to talk about and share what we think players might become. Still the element of reality is far to few work out the way we hoped. FWIW Arraez was ranked 23rd on this list.

Yeah MLB.com had him around 25 on their list so late 1st round. He was hard to evaluate in his draft year for the same concerns being brought up on the board. He just hadn't pitched competitively in a long time so with less of a track record you take on more risk. Teams let him slide until the Twins grabbed him. I think Horton had been injured as well (rated 24) but pitched well down the stretch and the Cubs grabbed him at number 7. He was more of a power pitcher with a plus fastball and three pretty legit pitches IIRC. I think the concern on Prielipp beyond not throwing competitively was teams hadn't seen a big time fastball and that he might only be a two pitch pitcher so possibly more likely a reliever than starter. With so little track record it is impossible to know how this goes but we should have a better idea at the end of this year. He was elite his first year in a tough conference so he has the stuff IMO but like with most of these guys can the arm hold up to starting? We will see.

So far he Prielipp is living on past results. He has looked elite in the past but we have no idea what his arm can take at this point. I am hoping that the Twins found a top of the rotation lefty with tons of bat missing stuff. Still he could just be a two pitch pticher that ends up in the pen. We should know more after his first year but it will likely take up to his second year to know if the gamble paid off. If the arm holds up I have to believe he can be a difference maker but will have to wait and see. I liked the pick when they made it and still like it now. I believe he will be back just have to wait and see how it all plays out.

I still think it wouldn't be a bad idea to bring in a veteran arm, but lots of people on the board see room for the young guys to make noise if given opportunity. It is a tough call, but for me I would like a proven lefty to fall back on. Not sure how long Thielbar can work that magic and Moran was really good when up but the WHIP concerns me. They traded away Sisk so there isn't much for lefties left. Still given what we know about this FO and given they seem to have publicly said they are not likely adding to the pen adding a reliever seems unlikely IMO. Given the cost mentioned it seems even less likely. I think in the end I am fine either way they go, but do prefer paying a vet who has proven they can get it done.

I don't necessarily disagree as Salas's ratings appear to be a bit all over the place right now. MLB.com had him as the Marlins number 5 prospect but now has him as the Twins number 13 prospect. So essentially in the range you suggested. According to this Fangraphs article they have him rated 3rd in the Twins system (Per The Board, "Salas is now the Twins’ third-best prospect"). Some have him in the top 100 others don't. He is tough to gauge after those rough High A numbers. Still for perspective Rodriguez hasn't even made it to High A ball yet and he and Salas are around the same age. I definitely think Salas needs more polish to shine, but I still think he deserves top 10 status given his tools potential.

Salas should be OK on the defensive side as he was drafted as a shortstop and he doesn't look too bad there at least right now IMO. Some think he can stay there some seem to think he is more likely to end up at 2nd or 3rd. At any rate he should be an average to plus fielder no matter the position. I don't think defense is the worry point for him. His value like a lot of players is tied to his bat. He looked really good at A ball for a 19 year old and he did get promoted to High A but the batting numbers there don't look quite so nice. Still he is only 19 and two years younger than the average player there and he held his own for the most part. His slugging was down in High A and yet his body looks big and strong for a 19 year old. He looks like he can be projected to hit for more power. This coming year is a big one for Salas. If he masters High A and adds to his power he has star upside IMO. He still has a lot to prove but he does have time on his side right now. I am hoping for a breakout with the bat as that would put him on the fast path to MLB.

I think you make a good point. We need to go back in time a little bit to understand the Urshela decision. At the time Arraez was penciled in at first as his trade was not a "fait accompli" so if kept, it would have been some type of time share between. Arraez, Kirilloff and Miranda at first. Far from ideal. Also the Twins wanted a viable shortstop backup and Urshela for all intents and purposes was a third baseman only. Miranda seemed blocked in that situation and his bat was valuable in the lineup. They removed Urshela for the swiss army knife Farmer and things looked better. In the end they did move Arraez as well and I guess that is where we come back to the Urshela controversy to some degree but it all looked very different before the Arraez trade IMO. There really wasn't room for Urshela if the Twins were keeping Arraez. Farmer also filled more defensive holes which was needed as well. I like Urshela and he is a very good player. I wish the Twins could have found a better return but he didn't fit this roster all that well IMO.

Yep I agree with you. I don't think he has great fastball velocity and I know literally nothing about his secondary stuff. I just thought it a bit odd that the numbers at the exact same level and same time could be so close and they are rated vastly different. If Seth reads this maybe he can fill me in. Thanks for the well thought out response!

It doesn't look like Miranda will be an elite defender at third but his arm can't be any worse than Arraez's was. Last I checked he checked in with a average (50) arm on MLB.com. He is a 40 runner so range is an issue though lot's of stuff hit to third comes in hard. Still hopefully the slimmed down version is ready for those slow rollers as well. I don't know how he will do at third but we are going to find out. I guess I still don't see the angst about Urshela. Farmer replaced him and he can play third if Miranda can't hold it down. Nice thing about Farmer over Urshela is he can hold down short, 2nd, catcher and left if needed. Urshela can't do that. Might lose a bit on the bat with Farmer but if he is platooned properly he can make up for some of that. Given the roster and the guys coming up Urshela didn't seem like a great fit to me and the Twins must have felt the same way. They might not be ready this year but Lewis and Lee are hopefully not that far away and could take over at third if Miranda can't hold it down. The Twins obviously feel Miranda can get the job done or else he would be at 1st base already likely in some sort of platoon role with Kirilloff between 1st and DH. They must not like that idea thus they are playing him at third. Like I said I don't see him as a plus defender at third but I think he can hold his own there and if the bat plays like last year or better he is fine there IMO. I don't think playing MIranda at third is a misstep but with so little to go on will have to wait and see.

Excellent article! Thanks!

I love Varland and what he has done. Absolutely amazing story and just a great man giving it everything he has to get this far. NIck that was a brutally honest assessment of Varland and I agree with it. Just for reference below are last years 2022 AA numbers for Louie Varland and Kody Funderburk. Their numbers are very similar with Varland having a better K rate and WHIP and Funderburk with the better ERA and FIP. One of these pitchers is rated in Minnesota's top 10 the other isn't even mentioned in the top thirty. What does that tell me? One of these players is either overrated or underrated. I am rooting hard for Varland even if he is a 5th starter as we need controllable pitchers that can take the mound every turn and provide Quality work. Here's hoping Louie is a Twin and in the rotation for a good long time.

He is pretty under rated. I know I don't always appreciate him as much as I should. Gonna be an interesting year this year to see how the players behind him do. Twins might need Polo one more year after this one but will have to wait and see. The Guardian's playbook would have him traded while he can return something of value. Have to wait and see how the Twins play it.

That first pic looks like a more open stance and with the bat close that looks like a good short to the ball all fields approach to my amateur eye. The second looks just a little more closed but not that much different to me. I can't say I have ever seen the stance in the third picture. It almost looks like he is cocking that foot back to make sure his hips gain some whip and the bat is further back so it seems like that would be more geared toward more power but again I am not a professional so just my personal questioning observations. Maybe we will see more power out of Martin in the future but to this point he has been more of an all fields slap hitter with a good eye at the plate. He hasn't cracked .400 slugging in full season ball yet but a power breakout would be nice. Still I am fine if he gets on base at his fairly normal .400 clip as well. We have seen how valuable that can be as well.

He could be a sort of Arraez type player with speed. A tough out who can take walks and makes contact as he only struck out at a 13% Clip. For teams looking for contact hitters along with working counts he is rock solid there. He also has been able to steal bases so his speed plays as well. He needs a good year at the plate as his value is now tied up in OBP IMO. Still we all know what a catalyst Arraez could be and while the current trend is power we are starting to see cracks in that line of thinking as contact seems to be making a comeback. He is a nice piece of the puzzle if he can put things together and just excel at what he does well which is get on base.

I was hoping for the Twins to double down on pitching with that pick but they went with a bat they all really liked. They saw that he could sell out for power when he picked his spots and he already had good contact skills and I think those are players they like to work with. They have to be betting on his hit tool to make this pick work. In time he might be a player that keeps his walks and K's pretty even and if he does tack on power to his solid contact skills I think he could be a solid MLB second baseman. That is a lot of hopeful projection on my part but that had to be the plan when they picked him.