Dman

Even though Texas took Rocker if the Mets are buying Green to drop down Twins still could miss out on top 7. Next three picks and we will know.

It is going to be best player available of coarse. lol. It will be interesting to see who is there when they pick and then even more interesting who they pick. Odds are it is Cross but will have to wait and see who ends up available there. The Cubs have been mocked taking Neto and he makes sense for them as they seem to prefer college bats and it is hard to find up the middle prospects. Something tells me we miss out on Neto and Green falls, but we will see. I still like Jett and making a deal there could go a long way to grabbing one of the better pitchers in the second round. So many things they can do or that can happen at 8. Sunday will be fun but my money is on Cross as he is seems the kind of player the Twins pick most every year.

Nice to see Neto get the love he deserves moving into that top 7 range. Fangraphs is pretty harsh on Green they have a nicer writeup for Crawford IMO and he doesn't have any power at all. It sure looks like Green could fall to me. I wonder how the Twins feel about taking him? They don't seem sold on Collier either although they acknowledge he is very young so hard to project but they seem to see holes in the swing right now. They seem more Bullish on Berry than almost any other outlet having him at 50AV even with just the hit tool to fall back on. They really, really like the swing and think it is close to MLB ready. Gotta believe the Marlins take him if he falls to them unless Prado is there as well. They also don't love Prado's chance to stick behind the plate likening him to Schwarber (ouch!). That seems a bit harsh IMO but they do love his bat and give him a non zero chance to stick behind the plate. They site his weak arm as the their main concern. So I don't know. With those evals it makes the top 8 more interesting.

Well the Twins are stuck in 1st place until the All Star break so at least they will be leading the division after the break. The White Sox have the easiest schedule come September so the Twins were always likely to get reeled in at some point. Maybe the arms just need some rest and the All Star break will give them what they need to be more effective down the stretch. Will have to wait and see. Still they are in first place and I have enjoyed this season much more than last season. They still have a chance to turn things around just have to get healthy and play just bit better than the rest of the division.

Good point they are un-usable as well essentially making it a 35 man instead of 40.

That was great! Love this format as it can take some of the bias out of the rankings. Given what you said about Cross's rankings and the fact he is the one player that fit's Minnesota's model and provides likely above average defense sure seems to give him the edge. Berry having that switch hitting advantage is a nice thing to have as well. Call me crazy but I still kind of like Neto and Jett a bit better as selections. However, I am biased about up the middle prospects. I know teams have a lot more info on these guys than I do and I think no matter who the Twins pick at 8 they should come away with an elite bat. Here's hoping they pick the guy who has the greatest success at 8.

Yeah I don't get it either. I really don't understand how he could be this bad. I mean crazy bad. At this point I am hoping this is something similar to Gore last year where he couldn't find the plate and was horrible and then ends up fine the next year. Covid really messed things up as guys couldn't get promoted fast enough or pitch enough innings to see where they were at, at the highest levels. Now we have Balazovich, Sands and Strotman taking up valuable 40 man space and they shouldn't even need to be on the 40 man as no team would want any of those three on their roster for the year. Their poor performance is killing this team in more way than one

I went to the Kernals game in Beloit last night to watch David Festa pitch and he pitched well only giving up one run through 6 innings. I have to say I knew he was a skinny\lanky guy but I still was surprised at just how thin he is. Still at the start of the game he was really popping the catchers glove with the fastball. I guess with the slight frame I can see why some think he is likely more destined for the pen than starter. Last night I wouldn't say his stuff looked overly impressive to be honest and yet he was very effective. The Beloit hitters really had a hard time getting solid contact so he must be doing something right. All in all it was a joy to watch him pitch. I watched Javier a few years back and he looks different now. Looks more confident and I felt he had a good eye at the plate. He didn't get a hit last night but I still think that he can become a solid hitter. Looking at him I don't see the elite player we might have been hoping he would become but he still could be a valuable utility player and if the bat heats up then a solid regular. He has a ways to go but this is the best he has looked in a long time to me. While I was hoping to see Christian Encarnation-Strand they promoted him one game before I got the chance. At any rate to me the most impressive hitter last night was Kyler Fedko. This guy has legs like tree trunks and looks like he could deadlift a bus with good speed as well. Maybe he just had a good night as he started the game with what looked like a double but just cleared the fence for a home run and went 2 for 5 with no K's. His stance is odd as his crouch is low and he sticks his butt out but he puts the bat through the zone well and made good contact all night. I know he was a lower pick but he kind of reminds me of Spencer Steer somewhat in that he has good plate discipline, makes solid contact and just looks good in the box. I think the Twins might have something in Fedko. While I wasn't impressed with Winkel's defense as he looked slow trying to throw runners out he was making good contact at the plate. I think his bat might play and guessing the D will improve. He looked like the second best hitter on the team to me. Granted based on just one night just a few at bats. Soularie has a slighter build than I thought he would have but he was making good contact last night as well. I guess I can see why other scouts thought the Twins picked him too high. He looks OK just not sure about him though. Was a great night for baseball and the Kernals had some clutch hits and defensive plays to round out the win. They look like a pretty solid team even without CES.

Congrats to Wallner and Christian Encarnation-Strand!! They are both well earned promotions. Hoping they both don't skip a beat and keep on performing at a high level. The more hitters ready to go the better.

I think he is saying a Sano type bat which is a lot of K's, low batting average but a good number of Homers as well so hopefully around a 750 to 800 OPS even with the low batting average. Most everyone has him pegged as elite defense and if the other team does decide to walk him probably an automatic double. If he can do that it is still a good pick at 8. If you don't like the Sano like offensive profile Green might not be the guy you want. Still that offensive profile with elite defense could be very useful and if he did happen to figure it out on offense then as others have stated he has the highest ceiling in the class. The other side of that though is he also has the lowest floor. If there is too much swing and miss he could be Corey Ray or Keon Broxton. If he can't hit at all that will be a problem and that is why he might fall to 8. No one knows for sure how he will develop but the odds are worse that things improve with his current hit tool profile IMO. The guys ahead of him are more sure things with the bat and that should allow them to move faster through the system and less likely to be a complete bust. I think he falls somewhere in between his floor and Ceiling so feel that chpettit19 probably isn't that far off. He will always have his elite defense to build WAR he just has to have some offensive value to be valuable.

If you ask me the Twins have a lot of young bats breaking into the major's right now with more on the way at AA and AAA. Even at the lower levels they have guys like Rodriquez, Rosario, Urbina, Miller, Aguier and Cespedes not to mention CES a level above in his first pro year. If they wanted to they could go all in on arms this year. They could take pitchers in the first three picks and go from there. For as great as the pitching pipeline has been there are signs it is backing up. Balazovich looks lost. Henriquez looks lucky to be a pen arm. Canterino looks bound for the pen. Sands can't seem to put things together. SWR has been average at best. Strotman appears to be a bust. Enlow who knows. So there doesn't seem to be much at the top anymore that I can see. Pitching went from strength to weakness in a hurry. So yeah if the Twins wanted to change approach I think this would be a good year to take chances on pitchers especially arms that have already had TJ as that is one less thing to worry about once they get started in the system. Certainly the safe play is a hitter as it is a strong group through about the first 12 picks IMO. You could lose out on an elite bat if you went pitcher at 8 but you would also get first pick of whatever pitcher you wanted as well. If they could do a deal with Jet and get a top line starter in the second saving money on the 1st round pick that sounds like a best case scenario but I would do that if possible as well. At any rate the system is strong enough with hitters that they could go all in on pitching to try and strengthen the weakest part of the system.

Yeah I agree I don't see a meaningful starter in the cards at the deadline for the Twins. The cost will be too high and they are more about value long term and short term than overpaying with elite prospects. They will Roll with Ryan and Gray and whoever else proves to be the best third starter. They have Maeda and Paddack coming back next year as well so a pretty full rotation right there with Winder, Ober and Smeltzer still in the mix. There are going to be a lot of teams battling for the best starters at the deadline I see the Twins likely getting squeezed out in the end. That being said I think they have the capital to get relievers and they generally are the best value at the deadline. I wouldn't be surprised if they added someone with extra years of control either if there is value there. The pen is the teams biggest weakness and they will address it at the deadline as they have done in past years.

So I know it is only a month and a half of at bats but Tim Beckham is hitting .402 at AAA with a 1.104 OPS. What does a guy have to do to get noticed these days, Wow! Cave is still chugging along and Sano has been money so far in AAA as well. Lot's of good hitters at AAA right now. I never thought Wallner could hit .300 at any level given his generally high K rate but here he is knocking on the door with a .299 average and 1.033 OPS. Man what a season he is having. He is blowing my negativity away. Really would like to see him move up to AAA so that he can be an option for the team next year as they are definitely going to add him to the 40 man after a year like this one. Jullien is still looking good at AA as is the pesky Prato who started the year at High A. Kiersey has been coming on strong as well so lot's to like at AA right now. CES is the only real big bat at High A right now. He is hitting almost .300 again with a .969 OPS. Other than one month he has been a consistently strong bat all season long. He should move up to AA when they move Wallner and or Jullien or Prato to AAA. I was a doubter on CES as a 4th round pick but he has been far better than Sabato so likely a steal in the 4th round as he hits like a 1st round pick. Some really great bats in the system having excellent years so far. There is going to be a lot of hitting talent at AAA next year.

I generally don't like taking guys with subpar bats in the 1st round. Keoni Cavaco should be a cautionary tale and there are many others out there as well In the first round the hit tool is the most important tool IMO. That being said we have also seen first hand what elite centerfield defense can do for a major league team with Buxton out there even when he had a subpar bat his defensive WAR made him valuable. Green is Buxton V2.00. There is a lot of swing and miss but he does have time to get there. If the Twins do make that pick let's just hope he turns out better than Corey Ray did for the Brewers. If there is a player that could and most likely would fall it is Green because teams won't want to possibly come away with nothing picking that high in the draft. Still he has elite tools in every other category so I guess it just depends on how you feel the bat will develop because if it does develop you likely have a long time All Star on your team. It is a big gamble though so will be interesting to see if he goes top 7 or if he is the one to fall.

I don't believe he is. His MiLB page is below.

Bummer. Thanks for the info! Wonder why they have CF as his position on the MiLB page?

Lot's of people on this board were hoping he might fall to the Twins from the very beginning of the Mocks this year. He has been too good this year to fall to 8. If he did fall out of the top 5 it would be almost impossible for MIami not to take him at number 6. He would be an elite fast moving bat that can play 2nd or third at likely a plus level. That is exactly what Miami needs and there is a chance he falls to 6 but I can't see him falling further than being Miami's dream scenario pick. Even the Cubs would likely want him. If he was one of the top 7 to fall to the Twins it would be an easy call even though we already have a glut of 2nd/3rd baseman type players. The bat is just too good to pass up.

Have you looked at Wander Javier's splits for June and July? June .278/.374/.506 so far in July .333/.447/.600. I know you have always been a believer and right now he looks like the player everyone hoped he could be. Good batting average. Very nice OBP. Hitting for power and supposedly plays good defense. He is slightly old for the level right now but if he keeps this up he still has a chance to be a difference maker type of player. AA is the real test but those are very encouraging numbers the last two months. He still needs to remain consistent and hold those numbers but maybe just maybe he is a late bloomer that eventually puts it all together.

That could end up being a pretty accurate top 10 of the draft. Berry has pretty much been included in the top 8 of most mocks since the beginning of the year so would not be surprised if the Twins took him there. Still hoping and or thinking the Marlins might grab him at number 6. He is a switch hitter with power and a fast mover which is just what Miami needs. Seems like an almost perfect value and need to me but who knows what they think. The Twins have a glut at 1st base and DH so not really a need and no need for a fast mover to one of those positions either. It isn't the best fit for the Twins IMO but he still might be the best all around bat available at 8. If you believe in best available and that hit tool is the most important tool then Berry might be it. Cross would still be in the mix there as well since he can play defense so might be the likely play for Minnesota. I still think Neto has an outside chance. I know his potential lack of power will likely not meet the Twins model but a 6% K rate has to perk their ears up as contact is so key for success and the lower the K rate the better the odds for a higher batting average. He also should be able to stick at short a position of need in the system. I wouldn't mind taking a chance on Jett Williams who is rising up boards. He might take longer to get there but he would stack in nicely with the next big wave of hitters the Twins have coming up.

I just mentioned the other day that Povich needed to be more consistent. Walk fewer guys and give up fewer hits. I guess he must have read my post or maybe just wanted to shut me up. At any rate that was a heck of a performance and I am back on the bandwagon again. When he is on he is one awesome pitcher. Too many good hitting performances to comment on all of them but wanted to say Carlos Aquiar had a big night for Fort Myers going 4 for 4 with a HR. He is listed as a center fielder but not sure what kind of speed he has. If he can stick in center he is one to watch as he has power and seems like he can hit. He is aggressive at the plate right now and a very SSS but someone to dream on if he can stick in center as the Twins don't have a ton of depth there. Also nice to see Urbina back and am hoping for good things with the bat from him as well. A very good night on the farm for lot's of players hope these young guys can keep it going.

I don't love the low average but I think you have to remember Buxton has been playing through injury and is still one of the better players in baseball. I think this Graphic from Gleeman should summarize the value of what Byron brings versus someone like Arraez who has the best batting average in baseball.

Yeah I don't disagree. His WHIP is up and K's are down. His ERA looks real good but FIP and xFIP say it is smoke and mirrors at this point. The issue is though the contract is structured for a starter, He has always been a starter. When you do incentive laden contracts and don't follow through in good faith then nobody wants to sign incentive laden contracts with that FO\Club. The Twins have always operated in good faith I don't see that changing in this scenario. They are operating in good faith with Buxton as well. I guess if his performance level falls to his expected FIP rate then maybe the Twins have a case to try and change course but with Archer having a decent 3.08 ERA he seems to be holding up his end for the most part. Yeah he needs to go longer but when you do contracts like that there has to be a little dance around those incentives. I think if Archer can continue to do what he is doing he can find a 10M or more per year contract as a starter. He hadn't done much of anything in the past few years and is still on track for his 9.5 Million incentive laden contract for this year. He would have to be lights out in the pen to get that as a reliever and I don't know how he would fare coming out of the pen. I think he is who he is with plenty of warts but somehow he has made things work more often than not this season. We will see if that holds or not.

I don't disagree and if the Twins were willing to change the reading of the contract from starts to just appearances I am guessing all would be well on that front from a money standpoint. As things stand you can see the Twins have done everything they can to give him starts and so far have barely pushed him over the 9 outs threshold. They are holding up their end of the bargain in good faith so far. I assume they will continue to and hope Archer can start getting to 5 innings or more from here on out. I think given the walks and inability to go five innings he looks much better as a pen arm but he leaves a lot of money on the table if he gives up now. He is playing for a contract next year as well so I don't think a reliever role will go over well with him. I think he is a starter unless he does get a season ending injury. It also looks like with the 9 outs per appearance language they thought about piggy backing him so while that doesn't completely solve the problem it does provide for some flexibility in how they use him.

Yeah I don't know if Archer would be inclined to move to the pen given the incentives in the contract unless the Twins were willing to amend it. According to ESPN's Jeff Passan, the team reached an agreement with right-hander Chris Archer on a one-year, $3.5 million contract. The deal can reach as high as $9.5 million with performance bonuses "based on games started or outings with nine or more outs." The way I read that is If in the bullpen he won't be starting games and if they don't let him go three innings from the pen it is going to be hard for him to get 9 or more outs per outing. The Twins need to and will operate in good faith to allow him to reach those incentives that is why I think Archer to the pen is a long shot.

Yeah I am probably over exaggerating the few more memorable failures or success's as you said but still it is the way I feel. It probably isn't rational but this darn game defies all logic a good portion of the time anyway so yeah you are probably right more than likely just random luck. I know in some of the games we lost to lessor pitching we hit balls hard they just didn't fall in or or go out. Sometimes things just don't work out. At any rate I know not to take a good team like the Brewers for granted. I hope the bats are hot and the pitching great but who knows what will happen until they play the game.