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Dman

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Everything posted by Dman

  1. Dman
    That is pretty much take as well. Pad's get a veteran pitcher in return in Paddack they'll want the money to be neutral so Twins will have to pay down some salary. They'll also want want a young pitcher close to ready to help them this year for depth so looking at Matthews, Morris, Maybe Lewis which will hurt as those guys will be cost controlled for 5 years most likely. But they'll need that to cover the comp pick they would get if they kept him (although given their payroll situation not sure if they would get a 1st or 2nd). They might want a lower level flyer as well. I guess we'll have to wait and see how it all works out but I like your approach on this one. Not sure if I love this deal for just one year of Cease but that would be a formidable rotation for this year.
  2. Dman
    I was wondering last year if he might be the answer to a dominant lefty pen arm, but he was pretty erratic outing to outing. While his K rate was amazing last year just going into the second or third inning he ran into trouble every other game or so. Such a small sample last year hard to see trends but coming back from TJ it looked like starter innings were out of the question. Granted this year hopefully he could build up better, but if not what a weapon he would be in the pen. the stuff is real as you don’t see many arms with that kind of K rate even at the lower levels. After essentially two TJs I have to believe they will be extremely careful with him no matter what. The pen sure looks like a good place for him IMO.
  3. Dman
    I'd want something fairly decent if they decided to trade him since he is kind of critical to the club playing pretty much every position. And yet I can't see them keeping him past this year so if the return gave them something they need like an elite lefty reliever or right handed power corner bat I could see it making sense. They have other players that can fill in just not many that fill every role like Castro can. I assume they would want to be like Cleveland and get something before he leaves but will have to wait and see. If the offer isn't good enough might as well just keep him.
  4. Dman
    Thanks Jamie was hoping someone would clarify this class after so much late movement. It sure seems like we essentially traded Taveras for Serrano as I don't see how they would sign their entire class and then add another 1.3 Mil at the end. Obviously wait and see just how strong that relationship is but the Blue Jays are going to have some serious international money to spend after losing out on Rosaki so I have to believe since he isn't singed Taveras moves on and possibly to a bigger payday unless the Twins trade for some international dollars. Going to be interesting to see what happens. Nice class though as I really love Leon's skillset (I thought he signed for 1.7M) and getting the speedy contact hitting Serrano from the Dodgers is a nice get. Twins need more elite speed in the system and at 16 its gonna be a while till he gets there if he gets there but I still like the decision there. Also happy to see they got one of the better pitchers this year as we always complain they rarely go for arms. As stated it is a well rounded class for upside. Now let's hope these guys work out.
  5. Dman
    I think your analysis is pretty spot on. Having not proven himself with no options left puts him in a tough spot. He did improve a fair bit last year though so I would like to see if he could make some slight adjustments to be even better this year, but is there going to be room for him on the 26 man? I guess we'll find out.
  6. Dman
    I guess the one question I have is who are the Twins dropping to add these players. It looks like Serrano form the Dodgers is going to cost 800,000 to 900,000 and now Diaz another 400,000 that's 1.2 or 1.3 Million on top of the approximately 3.7 to 4 Mil for Leon, Taveras and Castillo. So that could be 5.3 Mil already spent on just 5 players and another 400,000 is for Barrios and they need to sign the one excellent pitcher Castellanos they found. The money is starting to look pretty tight. Even with 7.3 Mil to spend.
  7. Dman
    Yeah I saw that. too. MLB.com shows they got 4 guys in their top 50 after adding the player that was predicted to go to the Dodgers. Looking at it that way it feels like they did well. BA just ranks via Salary which makes some sense as those are the players teams feel have the most talent to make it. Also BA notes the Twins got one of the better pitchers in this class. They say the following "Venezuelan righthander Santiago Castellanos has been a significant up-arrow pitcher. He’s a 6-foot righthander whose stuff has taken off over the past year to where he has become one of the best pitchers in the class. He’s 16 with outstanding arm speed and already reaching 97 mph with a lively fastball. He shows feel to spin a hard curveball with good depth and will flash an occasional changeup." So for those of us who think the Twins should find better international pitching it looks like they checked that box this year. I like the class as they chose guys with contact skills over power. They got a power hitter that might be a 5 tool player. They stole a speedy outfielder from the Dodgers and the Twins seem allergic to speed guys, And the cherry on top one of the better pitchers so far for this class. I do agree with @nicksaviking and @chpettit19 that all these projections mean very little, but they took a fair number bites at the top 50 to 100 players and got a well rounded group. That's about as much as I could ask even if this class isn't as loaded with top tier talent as most years.
  8. Dman
    Things always looked tight payroll wise for 2025 to me. I don't see any "big" moves on the horizon for the Twins this year as they are in the process of an ownership change and Payroll feels tight for them without a full understanding of TV revenue. Couple that with Correa's highest salary and Lopez's increase and the arb raises and it always felt like it would be hard to maneuver in 2025. This team needs its young players to step up and take over to be successful this year and I think that was the plan when they made those past moves. You were thinking some of the players like Lewis, Miranda, Lee, Martin and Wallner were going to be there for 2025. Maybe Rodriquez and Keaschal can be in that mix as well at some point, but to offset what they are paying Correa, Buxton and Lopez they knew they were going to need young players to step up to make it all work. This is the year it needs to happen as they don't have much room for moves.
  9. Dman
    For me first cut would be Helman as the Twins have a ton of middle infield depth. I think he has lots of potential but at 28 it feels like he is a long shot right now. With Keaschal in the wings I think they could let him go if needed. If Canterino can't stay healthy he would be next on my list but if he gets healthy and pitches he would be last on this list for me. Hard to say what happens with him this year but way to early to tell right now. I'm assuming the arm doesn't hold up since it hasn't since he turned pro. I just haven't been a big Henriquez believer and it feels like the Twins have some younger arms coming up with options so I could see them moving on. He has some decent stuff but the results have been underwhelming IMO. He could use another year to prove he belongs as he improved last year but I could see them letting him go if they needed space badly. Gasper would be next as he seems like a decent bet at 1st Base if needed and he can play elsewhere. Not sure he is needed badly so they could move on from earlier but they did trade for him so assuming they would try to keep him at least this year. Other wise he would right behind Helman for me. Camargo would be last on my list. I have rarely had good things to say about his bat or approach since he K's a ton but he can catch and he can hit home runs. When healthy he looks like a solid backup catcher IMO. It's just hard to find even slightly less than decent catchers so I think his value is higher than most think. He also has two options years left allowing him to easily be sent up and down. I still think there will be trades and they might not bring back MLB players in return so there could be more room if that happens. Injuries also create room once spring training starts so that will be in play as well. Twins usually work their magic late so might be a while before we have to worry about room.
  10. Dman
    First let me say they always knew this was going to be a challenging year financially with Correa's highest annual payday and Lopez's big bump. Once they get through that though it feels like things even out. I always felt for all those years ownership didn't spend when the team was bad that they should be a able to go a year a two without making as much money or maybe even losing a little. But yeah I get it Baseball is a business so it is what it is. I haven't read all the comments but this seems like a pretty typical Twins offseason to me. They just don't do much early in the process as they wait until the end for trades and bargains. I still think they could trade Vasquez or Castro or Paddock but those kinds of deals usually happen late in the process IMO. Once the dust settles on Free Agency I wouldn't be surprised to see some moves by the Twins. Maybe with new ownership moving in they move the bar on payroll will just have to wait and see I guess. This FO has done some surprising things late like signing Donaldson, Correa, and getting the Lopez trade done. So I wouldn't worry too much yet.
  11. Dman
    He has fastball issues but his changeup looks elite already. If he gets the slider going I think he can be something special. The cool thing is the Twins have a nice group of arms 20 and under with Carpenter, Bohorquez, Soto, Hill and the 17 year old Roque. That's 5 young arms to pair with whatever College arms the Twins find. I'm a Soto believer. They let him pitch 70 innings as an 18 year old and he held his own at A ball. The future looks bright IMO.
  12. Dman
    There normally are more guys to worry about but with only 5 rounds in the Covid draft of 2020 where they grabbed high schoolers Raya and Rosario they only added Raya. They also pretty much traded away the high draft picks in the 2021 draft (i.e their first 5 picks in Petty, Miller, Hajjar, Povich and CES). If they still had those players there would be more players to add. Also Festa was added earlier in the season as was Lee, and Matthews. They have added plenty of guys from the farm even before Rule V. So the farm is healthy they just added some guys early and traded away some of their talent so fewer players were needed to be added this year.
  13. Dman
    I think it was good to hang onto Adams as a pen arm. He improved quite a bit last year and they might as well give him a shot. Raya was a sure thing to be added no surprise there. I don't see Rosario as MLB ready especially with his K rate, but given their lack of right handed outfielders and Rosario's power potential I thought they would add him. I guess if some team would take a chance and they would lose him they have Keaschal in that spot anyway so they can afford to live dangerously. It's hard for teams to carry Rule V bats all year so it makes sense they didn't add him I just thought they might. Olivar couldn't handle AA pitching and until recently I never heard about him even being good behind the plate. He always seemed to be pegged as a slightly below average receiver. I think that was a good no add. Odds are he might not be ready even at the end of next year anyway. He has a good eye and solid contact to this point but AA is a major step and we saw what happened to Schobel, Ross and Cardenas their first year there. The catchers that get taken in Rule V tend to be elite defenders. I don't see Olivar as one of those. Also interesting on Moran. I assume his fastball still isn't up to par for them to keep him off. He has an elite changeup though and he is a lefty so I thought he was a pretty certain add, but I have no insight into his recovery so they must not like him enough just yet. I think they made good choices. I like what they did for the most part.
  14. Dman
    Yeah I don't know what Gleeman see's that we don't. He's been a solid hitter with good plate discipline since he got started, but there is no standout tool that I can see other than plate discipline and maybe contact rate? With a .626 OPS at AA and below average catching skills I don't see him getting taken in Rule V. He needs more time in the minors to see if he can master the breaking stuff they throw there. I guess if you think he has elite contact skills and you believe he can be backup catcher you can squint your way there, but he isn't fast and he doesn't look ready for MLB to me.
  15. Dman
    It's one heck of an accomplishment to make the Majors as an 11th round pick. No matter what happens he can always say he made it. He has had a nice batting line the last two years and is versatile in the field. He should be a good fit for a utility role. Just have to wait and see how he does against the best pitching there is.
  16. Dman
    I have been waiting for him to regress for quite a while now and he keeps defying statistical logic IMO. His Barrel rate is really helping him out IMO., as when he does hit something he hits it extremely hard. It has been nice to see him adjust to the tougher pitches he is seeing as that bodes well for his future. It's just hard to feel comfortable with a guy who strikes out 36% of the time, but right now the results speak for themselves. For the most part I like players with excellent contact skills as they generally are fast movers up the system and transition better to MLB. I have decried the FO\Draft team for going after just exit velocity in drafts and those types of hitters generally don't have good contact rates. While it seems those players take much longer to make their MLB debuts the strategy is starting to look more successful recently with Rooker, Larnach and Wallner all with high OPS's and Rooker and Wallner currently top ten OPS MLB bats which are hard to come by. If those types of profiles are going to work out I guess I will have to rethink how I feel about contact rate versus exit velocity.
  17. Dman
    Nice to see Adams settle in and make it 5 innings after that rough first inning, Still glad they moved him to AAA. I don't know much about his stuff as he has never been on a top 30 list and Fangraphs rates most all his pitches as average, but he has been lights out in AA the past month. Hope he continues to pitch well at AAA. While it looks like he could make it as a starter I still think he would\could be a nice relief arm for them as well.
  18. Dman
    I was guessing that is was because because Helman was a right handed bat but looking at his splits against lefties this year his 640 OPS to Keirsey's .803 OPS I don't think that is the reason. Granted Helman has a .977 OPS against righthanded pitching with a .570 slugging so maybe they feel he can be a catalyst bat when given the chance since he hits righties so well? He has hit lefties better in 2023 and 2022 so maybe this year is an anomaly? Not sure. He does offer them a ton of positional flexibility though as well so maybe they just value that more than having Keirsey up.
  19. Dman
    MaCleod has been consistently impressive. Hard to believe he is not in the top 30 at this point. FIP and XFIP don't agree with his ERA so probably some regression there, but the K rate is really good for that level. Kind of like Headrick in 2022 it looks like MaCleod might end up looking to good to not be on the 40 man. I think they will have to protect him from Rule V at this point. I agree with @FlyingFinn they should probably move him up to AAA so he can get a few more innings as he started late this year. I don't know what he throws or if he has a plus pitch, but the results are impressive and he is a lefty. McCusker's 40% K rate last year made it tough to consider him as a viable hitter, but he moved that down to 27% at AA which is a much tougher level. With the K rate drop and the walk rate up his slugging was the lowest it has been but still almost at .500 which is very, very good for AA. He has rounded out his hitting profile and deserved the promotion to AAA. It feels like he has figured more of the breaking stuff out and that bodes well for his future success. He is an incredible athlete with a ton of power. It would be awesome to have a right handed version of Wallner if he makes it.
  20. Dman
    Only two games so not as much going on. Nice to see Jenkins showing more power. That seemed like the last thing to conquer on his todo list for this year. After a tough start his OPS just keeps climbing. He's looking more and more like the player we thought he would be.
  21. Dman
    Absolutely awesome to see Festa go 6 and dominate. These rookie pitchers have really held the team together this year. Have to agree with @USAFChief on sending a guy out that they don't generally trust the second time through let alone a third or fourth. I guess the confidence in the pen is soooo bad Baldelli felt he had no choice? Anyway this team is officially in freefall right now. The baseball gods are toying with them. Hopefully the players focus and get things moving in the right direction, but getting Correa and Buxton back can't happen soon enough IMO.
  22. Dman
    I've always been a big Larnach fan, but after last year he had me wondering if he was going to make it. Really happy to see the improvements he has made pay off and it feels like he has been cheated on some hard contact for outs as well. The defense will never be elite, but good enough for left IMO. The bat is a difference maker though and should only get better as he gains confidence in his approach.
  23. Dman
    I liked the solid base of skills Jenkins had at low A. He wasn't chasing a ton. His OBP was really good. It was a nice solid base that most great hitters have. The only thing missing were more extra base hits as he wasn't generating hard contact at a rate that would have him at an elite status. It looks like he is getting there at High A with an .800 OPS which as you stated isn't elite, but definitely shows improvement and at a higher level. I guess what I am getting at is I think given what we are seeing at the end of the season here he could break out next year. AA is a tough level but if he has a good eye at the plate hopefully it only takes one year to conquer that level. The base is solid he really just needs to work on exit velocity and once that is conquered and he has better control of all five tools it should be just a matter of time before we are asking for him to be called up. Even if it is still one level per year for him it will still be a good time frame, but I think next year he could wow us. Will be fun to see what he does next year.
  24. Dman
    Really nice to see Rosario back with a vengeance. Stinks that he had to miss so much of the season, but he looks ready to move back up to AA which is good., Will echo others on Adams that he has seemed too hittable at AA and then add in the walks giving him a 1.47 WHIP last year. This year he was very inconsistent early in the year having games giving up 5, 6 and 4 runs mixed in with much better outings. It looks like I have underestimated his ability as he has a good K/9 this year. His FIP and xFIP is lower than his ERA and his WHIP is down to 1.15 and those numbers include his rough start to the year. I don't know if it is the Zebby affect or maybe a pitch change, but Adams is starting to dominate. Will have to see until next year if this is an Ohl like half year domination or something more solid. Still it is nice to see him looking this good. Also want to shout out Winokur for coming up clutch. He has been so fun to watch this year. Just hoping for a bit more contact and bit less chase next year and I think his numbers will be even better.
  25. Dman
    I've lost my faith in Winder over the years, but I will say he has been better the last month or so at AAA and MLB. I don't know if he figured something out or is on a lucky BABIP streak, but probably worth it to find out. At one time he looked like a 5th starter type. You'd like to think with three pitches he could make the bullpen. They should probably find out one way or the other as there are a number of arms next year that might need spots on the 40 man. It kind feels like now or never for Winder as a Twin. If his current numbers are who he really is he could be a nice weapon down the stretch. Pretty small sample size of success right now though.
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