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Dman

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Everything posted by Dman

  1. Dman
    Absolutely awesome to see Festa go 6 and dominate. These rookie pitchers have really held the team together this year. Have to agree with @USAFChief on sending a guy out that they don't generally trust the second time through let alone a third or fourth. I guess the confidence in the pen is soooo bad Baldelli felt he had no choice? Anyway this team is officially in freefall right now. The baseball gods are toying with them. Hopefully the players focus and get things moving in the right direction, but getting Correa and Buxton back can't happen soon enough IMO.
  2. Dman
    I've always been a big Larnach fan, but after last year he had me wondering if he was going to make it. Really happy to see the improvements he has made pay off and it feels like he has been cheated on some hard contact for outs as well. The defense will never be elite, but good enough for left IMO. The bat is a difference maker though and should only get better as he gains confidence in his approach.
  3. Dman
    I liked the solid base of skills Jenkins had at low A. He wasn't chasing a ton. His OBP was really good. It was a nice solid base that most great hitters have. The only thing missing were more extra base hits as he wasn't generating hard contact at a rate that would have him at an elite status. It looks like he is getting there at High A with an .800 OPS which as you stated isn't elite, but definitely shows improvement and at a higher level. I guess what I am getting at is I think given what we are seeing at the end of the season here he could break out next year. AA is a tough level but if he has a good eye at the plate hopefully it only takes one year to conquer that level. The base is solid he really just needs to work on exit velocity and once that is conquered and he has better control of all five tools it should be just a matter of time before we are asking for him to be called up. Even if it is still one level per year for him it will still be a good time frame, but I think next year he could wow us. Will be fun to see what he does next year.
  4. Dman
    Really nice to see Rosario back with a vengeance. Stinks that he had to miss so much of the season, but he looks ready to move back up to AA which is good., Will echo others on Adams that he has seemed too hittable at AA and then add in the walks giving him a 1.47 WHIP last year. This year he was very inconsistent early in the year having games giving up 5, 6 and 4 runs mixed in with much better outings. It looks like I have underestimated his ability as he has a good K/9 this year. His FIP and xFIP is lower than his ERA and his WHIP is down to 1.15 and those numbers include his rough start to the year. I don't know if it is the Zebby affect or maybe a pitch change, but Adams is starting to dominate. Will have to see until next year if this is an Ohl like half year domination or something more solid. Still it is nice to see him looking this good. Also want to shout out Winokur for coming up clutch. He has been so fun to watch this year. Just hoping for a bit more contact and bit less chase next year and I think his numbers will be even better.
  5. Dman
    I've lost my faith in Winder over the years, but I will say he has been better the last month or so at AAA and MLB. I don't know if he figured something out or is on a lucky BABIP streak, but probably worth it to find out. At one time he looked like a 5th starter type. You'd like to think with three pitches he could make the bullpen. They should probably find out one way or the other as there are a number of arms next year that might need spots on the 40 man. It kind feels like now or never for Winder as a Twin. If his current numbers are who he really is he could be a nice weapon down the stretch. Pretty small sample size of success right now though.
  6. Dman
    After a bit of slow start to the season MacLeod has pitched consistently the rest of the way. It's a nice K rate. good ERA (2.45) and very good WHIP. Guys are really struggling to get hits off of him so if it wasn't for the walks his WHIP might be even lower. The only concern is that FIP has his ERA two points higher at 4.24 while xFIP looks better at 3.21, but there is likely going to be some regression there at some point. If you like RA9 better he is at 2.85 there which puts him pretty much in line with his ERA. I don't have him as a lock to be protected from Rule V as he isn't in the top 30 and most teams don't protect players not in the top 30, but given the numbers and consistency I do wonder if they will add him. Does anyone remember if Headrick was on the top 30 the year he was added? I know he was a surprise add in 2022. Starting to wonder if MacLeod just might end up on the 40 man in the end.
  7. Dman
    A much needed win to keep us in front of KC and Boston. With KC and Cleveland facing each other 4 times if we can get some wins we should make up some ground on one of them. Really nice to see Larnach get rewarded for the good swings he has been putting on the ball. He seems to be getting better and better. Wallner, it's a crazy K rate (38%) and high BABIP but its working so keep hitting the ball hard Matty. Another massive HR for Wallner and also a three hit night. Pablo with the shutout was really nice to see no mistake pitches especially with men on. We needed this win and he was the key to getting it and he didn't disappoint.
  8. Dman
    I agree. Currently right now, as of today no way he has 60 power IMO. Could he get there? Yeah I think he can. He is only 19 and guys grow into power all the time. He has a great build and his man muscles will be there soon enough. I do like @2wins87 comp of Mauer right now. Jenkins has been really good at drawing walks, getting in zone contact and going the other way. Those were all things Mauer had in his tool box as well. Jenkins has a very balanced approach and that really excites me as he will be hard to defend against making him a tough out. I still really love the player maybe even more than I thought I would given the plate discipline he has, but power hasn't been a big part of his game so far. I would go with Rodriguez or Severino or someone else who has higher exit velo's for now.
  9. Dman
    I'd agree the Twins aren't particularly young, but most everyone is in their prime years right now which is a good place to be. We'll see how the arb raises go but they will need to trade some of these guys and replace them with younger players so I don't see that number going up much. I agree Rodriguez most likely set himself back with the injury this year and won't likely get a shot with the MLB club until mid season next year. Still if he has a good spring and someone goes down I also wouldn't be surprised if he started with the MLB team next year. I agree he has warts in his batting profile, but so does Wallner and they made that work. I also agree arms are very volatile year to year, game to game. However, I do like the strength of this group better than the one you named. Canterino never pitched a full season. Enlow was barely a top 30 prospect by the time he made AA. There was always hope he'd find an out pitch, but it never happened. Winder wasn't the same after the neck injury in AA, but he was thought of as a likely 5th starter type. Jordan I did think was going to be a mid rotation guy for sure, but once the rails came off he never found that magic again. Duran was going to be our ace and he fell to the bullpen so those last two in particular are good call outs. Anything can happen between AA and the Majors with arms. Still I think I see about 10 arms in the current system that have pretty high upside if just a few make it we'll be OK and Festa and Mathews look like they might make it already. SWR seems to have made it this year that's a good bit of success right there to give more hope for future arms. If the Twins aren't moving off the 130M mark it is going to be really tough to keep this team together. I agree with your assessment that some tough decisions will likely have to made unless they increase the budget.
  10. Dman
    I'm a little surprised they let Soto pitch all year at A ball. He is only at 66 IP and might make it to 75 by the end of the year, but a lot of first timer high school guys only go 40 to 50 innings tops. He must not be having any recovery issues with the arm which is good. It seems like night and day improvement for Soto this year which I guess is to be expected given he is coming in from High School and this being his first pro year. It still feels like there is more there to work on, but the Twins have to be thrilled with how things have gone this year. I loved the Winokur pick as he brings a ton of big tools. I still think the swing needs some work, but for his first year in pro ball in a league where guys that were much older than him did worse at the plate the future looks bright IMO. I still think there are plate discipline issues to work on, but he got better there as the year went on. As he grows more into his body he could be a beast of a player. He just needs to keep working on that hit tool and he looks like a good one.
  11. Dman
    Adams has had a sneaky good year. I believe I underestimated his abilities after last years numbers. He got his WHIP back down to about 1 and his K9 a tick higher than last year, but he hasn't been dominant like Mathews and Morris this year. HIs FIP and xFIP say he has been unlucky and that his ERA should look better. He has been the only Windsurge arm at AA that still qualifies for season stats as he has taken the ball every time it was his turn this year. So the mechanics must be good. I still like him better as a pen arm, but given his improvement this year I can see Keeping him as a starter. He's never been on a top 30 list yet so far as his stuff is pretty average except for his plus slider. Still he's got to be pretty happy with the year he has had and last nights game really speaks to what he can do when he is on.
  12. Dman
    That's a great writeup Doc! I pretty much agree all the way. Everything he has done looks great so far but let's see if he can keep it going after they start pitching him differently. He'll most likely need to make adjustments. I think the Twins will help him develop pull side power and we'll have to see if or how that impacts his swing. I agree wit you though that if he wants his chance at the Majors his best way to get there is to develop more power/higher exit velocities. It's just incredibly exciting to have a guy come out of nowhere and be this good. I do still think there is some up and down coming as teams adjust. I just feel strongly that with his approach he will find a way to make it all work. We'll know more in the next year or two.
  13. Dman
    Defense is so hard to judge unless you can watch a guy almost every inning of every game because I don't see many errors or miss played balls that much. My eye test says he looks OK at second. He has good speed for second. I don't think he will be an elite defender anywhere as he looks more average at best to me, but as I said it's so hard to judge that kind of stuff. I like that they are giving him some time in left field. He has good speed for an outfield spot. I think that is his best bet to break in. Depending on how things go it might be between him and Jullien down the line at some point. Hopefully Seth answers your question as he is pretty connected and he just interviewed him.
  14. Dman
    I know this was directed at Seth, but it looks like he declined to answer so I'll give my two cents mainly because I have been giving it a lot of thought as well. I don't think most sites will have Eeles in their top 30 for a variety of reason that likely include. Really small sample sizes at every level he has played. Unknown guys that aren't drafted generally are slow to move onto lists because a fair bit of the time they come down to earth after teams find weaknesses to exploit. It is just safer to wait and see rather than look like an idiot believing in a pop up player if he doesn't pan out. To be honest the sample size is still too small, but I am not afraid to be a believer and my reasons are as follows. Every level he has been at he has a fairly equal walk to K rate. His batting average has been pretty much the same at each level and his BABIP is normalized except for low A where it is high, but he had his best slugging percentage at that level. He also has kept his OPS at essentially .900 for each level. Eeles has been remarkably consistent at each level he has been at with an approach that has given him consistent results. That leads me to believe he sort of is who he is and that looks like an elite bat to me. Having said all that teams haven't seen him that much. They will likely develop better strategies to get him out. I've seen recently that they are pitching him away more instead of inside. We'll have to see if he can adapt to the different approaches teams throw at him and small sample sizes dont'\won't account for that just yet. Still I currently have him as 23 on my top 30 list ahead of guys like Schobel, Gonzalez, Amick, Diaw and Cespedes. If his numbers continue to stay close to where they are now at the end of year I would move him inside the top 20 and possibly just outside the top 10. If he continues to be this consistent after a couple of months into next year I could see him inside the top 10 maybe top 5 if some guys graduate off this list. There are too many unknowns to rate him highly yet, but he has put himself in a spot to break into the top 30 which is amazing in itself especially for an undrafted player.
  15. Dman
    I was thinking the same thing. Hoping to see the 3 Central teams in the playoffs this year, but Boston taking 2 out of 3 against Houston changes things. Then on Monday they get get Toronto for 5 games so they look primed to move up into one of those wild card spots. Have to wait and see how they hold up. KC has a really tough two to three week stretch that likely makes or breaks them. If they can play 500 ball the next two weeks their schedule gets a little easier after that, but they still play teams that aren't gimmee's in Pit, Detroit, San Fran and Atlanta. If KC makes it they will have proved they belong in the playoffs.
  16. Dman
    Nice to see Lewis with the walk rate down. It's the kind of performance that makes me think he is ready for AAA. Since he started the year late I wonder if they will bump him up to AAA yet this year? At any rate that is the Lewis I remember from last year. Nice to see De Los Santos finish the season strong with a 5 for 5 day. He was the Twins top international pick this year He has 5 tool potential with the hit tool being the weakest link so nice to see him finish with an .800 OPS. He has good power and good speed and plays short so it would be awesome if he turns out. Still a long way to go. One minor league season done and two more with less than two weeks to go. The stats to be analyzed will be in the books for 2024 soon.
  17. Dman
    I feel like that was a pretty spot on write up. There does seem to be a wide range of opinions on his skillset but bottom line he generally puts up a .900 OPS where ever he plays. He has looked good in the field anytime I have watched games. I get that "maybe" be will need to move off center, but he looks OK there to me. He does have a 30% K rate but that also comes with 20% walk rate. It's an unusual profile for a quality hitter as usually the K rate is low (in the teens) and the Walk rate around double digits which shows a higher contact rate. Still his approach has worked for him all the way up so far. Maybe Rodriguez doesn't get the respect he deserves, but given the unusual batting profile and potential to move off of center he doesn't seem like a number 1 prospect. He currently appears to be a five tool player with speed being the most questionable plus tool, but even as a 4 tool player he is very valuable. It is just that when comparing him to other 5 tool players he seems at a slight disadvantage. I have loved, loved watching him play from A ball to AA. Always a smile. Always hustling. Has come up big in big moments. He's a really good baseball player but number 1 is another animal going against players with high impact tools. I'm not sure he belongs there, but he has defied the doubters so far. I guess we'll have to see once he gets back on the field.
  18. Dman
    Beltre has been amazing all year showing his power and patience at the plate. Two very nice building blocks for future success. He is third in the entire DSL in OPS and tied for 2nd in Home Runs., DSL numbers don't mean much as the pitching isn't the greatest there, but it sure is nice to have a top performer there. His batting line as it stands is solid all the way around. We'll see how he does against much better breaking balls and pitch sequencing in the FCL. It's a big jump from the DSL to the FCL and it will be interesting to see how he does. As everyone knows I am a big Eeles backer\believer. What he has been able to do I have never seen before and likely never will again. A player outside the top 20 rounds of the draft making it to AAA in less than a full year of pro ball. It should be impossible, but I guess no one told Peyton Eeles that. Tough to see Morris have a tough game but I am glad they moved him up to get some AAA experience so he has an idea what to work on over the offseason. It's also the end of the season when most arms are tired so not too surprised that there might not be much gas left in the tank this late. It's been a fun year watching the farm system rise up the ranks. Let's hope the new guys keep it going.
  19. Dman
    I wish we had a bullpen full of Jax type arms. In fact I think they should start a Griffan Jax camp and force all the minor league arms to attend. Or at least start drafting arms that get really good velocity along with great secondaries. What he has done to improve is remarkable. He is one of the leagues best relief arms IMO. That being said it's hard for me to go with MVP for a player that controls one inning. Is that high leverage inning important? Yes it is. He draws the toughest assignments and is elite. Still a starter generally goes through that same lineup multiple times and puts plenty of zero's on the board as well. I would certainly give him MVR ( Most Valuable Reliever). MVP to me means most valuable player on the team and 1 inning out of 9 is only one ninth of the way to a win. Every out is important and Jax's consistency truly sets him apart I don't want to diminish what he has been able to do. I just don't see MVP as a real option for any reliever.
  20. Dman
    I was thinking the same thing and I think this is why it was a good thing to promote him AAA essentially a little early. He can get acclimated to what he will need to do to be successful at this level and then work on tweaks over the offseason. Seems like everyone struggles when moving up to AAA Festa, Matthews doesn't matter. There are skilled veteran hitters there so the approach generally needs to be more refined IMO. I agree with you he's really young for the level at age 22 so plenty of time to work out the kinks at the highest minor league level before the big jump. It will be good to see how he responds.
  21. Dman
    Some context on Hoffman. IRRC I thought he had some control problems (walks) that spring and looked like he needed a bit more time, but beyond that the Twins had a ton of young bullpen arms taking up 40 man space and we had all lamented that they didn't have enough arms they could send up and down when they needed a long reliever. As well as a lot of us wanting them to play the young guys to see what they could do at the MLB level (i.e find out if they should be kept on the 40 man). Hoffman and Coloumbe looked OK that spring, but they didn't look all that special. I think there was more chatter about keeping Coloumbe on the roster than Hoffman at the time. Again I might not remember correctly but several people on the board felt Coloumbe had earned a spot, but when he cleared it was no big deal. Then the Orioles came calling early in the season and they did the right thing and let Coloumbe get his chance elsewhere. Hoffman had been solid the year before with Cincinnati but his WHIP was high due to walking too many guys and like I said earlier in the spring he didn't give a great vibe that he had conquered that issue and the Twins don't love guys that give up too many walks. It was combination of things that led them to not giving him a true chance and he proved a lot of teams wrong. Cincinnati I would think would have to be feel even more unfortunate as they let him get away for nothing and they had him.
  22. Dman
    If Eeles holds those numbers at AAA he really should be considered top 10 IMO. He currently walks more than he K's, bats for decent average. His BABIP is normalized and while you'd like to see the slugging a tick higher it's still really good for that level. Given his college numbers it is kind of crazy he didn't get drafted but Kudos to the Twins scouts on finding this guy and bringing him in. I thought what Lee did was amazing in technically his second year of pro ball but really his first full year making it to AAA. Although he started that year in AA and Eeles started in A ball and wasn't even on a pro team until May 7th of this year. Eeles also has better speed than Lee. Again if Eeles holds his numbers they will be better than what Lee put up last year at AAA by a wide margin. He'd have to work harder on this slugging to beat Lee's AAA numbers from this year though. There is a lot of season left and he's only been at AAA a little over a months worth of games, but if those numbers are even close to the same at the end of the year it would be like taking a player in the first round of the draft last year but getting him outside your top 20 picks. It would be like winning the lottery the odds are so slim. It's still too small of a sample to say he's going to be as good as his current numbers indicate, but given his numbers have essentially been the same at every level so far there's a good chance his approach is just solid and will allow him to continue to be successful. Just because he wasn't drafted doesn't mean he doesn't deserve to be a high level prospect. His numbers will do the talking for him and they have been really good at every level so far. It's still a bit wait and see as there needs to be a larger sample size to make sure he is who the numbers currently say he is, but right now what he is doing seems unprecedented.
  23. Dman
    There's enough talent in front and behind him that I don't think they "need" to keep Kirilloff, but if he really is a near .800 OPS bat when healthy just giving that away seems wasteful. He has an option year left and time to build his value back up at AAA. It seems prudent to give it one more shot. We write off players too fast IMO. Like others have said given the state of the talent on the farm and the team I don't really see a place for him as a starter on this team given his defensive limitations. It's going to be a tough call for the FO. They know him best, but if it were up to me I would just keep him and try and build his value back up. Then likely trade him for future pieces. Or if he doesn't perform then they can DFA him but would be on the hook for the money,. Probably have to wait and see how the Arb raises turn out to see how deep they decide to cut.
  24. Dman
    I agree Richards, Margot, Farmer, and, Kepler are gone at the end of the year. Not quite as sure about Santana but if they are keeping Kiriloff and they want a place for Jullien then I guess they let him walk. He also might cost more next year given the season he is having. Have to wait and see on that one IMO. Duarte, DeSclafani aren't really on the 40 man right now (60 day IL) and likely won't be added back on. Stewart and Topa are on the 60 day IL and will need to be added at the end of the season. so that's two more spots that will be filled at the end of the season. If they were going to take Canterino off the 40 man I think they would have done it by now. They haven't so I assume they give him one more year to see where his arm is at. Kiriloff is a tough one. No idea what they will do but I assume if there is room they will keep him on the 40 man. Same with Winder. While he hasn't been that good this year he just started having some success at the MLB level. He's close so they might want to keep him. Dobnak will end up going through waivers and they will take him off the 40 man at the end of the year if not sooner to save a spot. Severino still has a good bat and it's better than anyone they would need to protect in Rule V he isn't going anywhere. I am hoping they can trade Okert for something, but I don't know if they can. I think his spot is in danger but again it depends on how tight the 40 man gets. For as bad as Okerts are they are better than Funderburks and Thielbars so there's that. The Twins don't really have an elite Lefty so don't count Okert out just yet. Thielbar is finally starting to look his age and while still serviceable with his injuries being more frequent and his level of play more variable I think they might cut the cord, but we'll see. I know they really like him. They might want to hang onto him and see how he looks this spring. I don't think the Twins likely see the same level of space that you do.
  25. Dman
    I am really only talking about locks to be added with Raya. When it comes to adds it isn't always about performance as projection plays a large role as well. Raya is inside the top 10 in team prospect rankings with some plus pitches he needs to control better, but it's top of the rotation stuff if he can figure it out or elite pen arm if his arm can't take a starters load. Olivar is a possibility. He also is in the top 30. Teams have taken risks with catchers before as they don't generally hit that well at the MLB level anyway. Generally though it has been good to great defensive catchers that get taken. I am not sure Olivar's Defense is good enough to get him selected and he hasn't been as good with the bat at AA. They might add him, but I wouldn't call it a lock. MacLeod, Adams and Holland aren't even on the Twins top 30 and I can't remember them adding a player that hasn't been in the top 30 (Maybe a relief arm?). I doubt any of those players would be added despite their solid performances. I really like Adams as a relief arm and I think that is where MaCleod will end up as well, but he has time to change my mind. He's been K'ing guys so there's a chance there as a starter, but I don't see the Twins adding them especially with the 40 man as tight as it is.
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