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Dman

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  1. Dman
    I would pull up destination the show episode 47 and go to the 57 minute mark. They have a good discussion about him there. I thought he was mainly a second baseman and I know they had him out in left field as well. If he holds those numbers at AAA I think he will make the end of the top 30 list for the Twins. Lacking some power but has everything else.
  2. Dman
    I think the main reasons Culpepper dropped were concerns about power and chase rate. He was one of the few college players that looked legit at short and I don't know if you have watched him yet but he has looked good at short in his SSS at Fort Meyers. Unless he balloons up I don't see why he couldn't stick there. I think I like his actions their better than Lee's but they appear close to the same there IMO again SSS. Probably not elite there but very few are. I still he think he could be in the very good category yet though. I don't know what the lemon test is exactly but to me it is someone like Cavaco who never could hit and or maybe even Sabato who has had an above 30% K rate every year since he was drafted. Granted Sabato was able to draw walks at a good clip until AA. I don't know how Culpepper would fit as a lemon in any way to this point with his 6% K rate 9% walk rate and .892 OPS. It's a really small sample right now, but he was projected to have a plus hit tool when drafted and he has done nothing to suggest those projections are wrong to this point. As you said power was a question mark for him with wooden bats, but so far in A ball in 29 at bats he has a home run and three doubles for a .517 SLG percentage. It doesn't look like wooden bats are going to keep him down. I'm not saying he is ever going to have Amick like power, but he'll grow into more power most every player does. I believe he has pull side power and the Twins have been good at helping their players get to more power. I think he will hold his own there. Too your point though we won't know anything about how good he will be or if he can make it until AA. That is the first level where they face much more consistently good to great pitchers with good to elite pitches more often than not. Guys like Rodriguez and Keaschall who handle that level end up on top 100 lists. Guys like Schobel and others who falter start falling down team top 30 lists. Still I don't think that means we can't celebrate when players are doing really well. We don't know what the timelines might be for players to figure it out. We all pretty much gave up on Brent Rooker myself included and now I believe he is top 5 or 10 in OPS in the majors. He was old for every level and passed to three different teams before making it. Yes the odds are lower for those types of players, but it just shows despite what stats and trends tell us players can beat the odds. I don't know how Culpepper will do, but I have been very impressed with what I have seen so far.
  3. Dman
    What a difference a day makes. Winokur had a nice .726 OPS which is really good for 19 year old in that league, but after last night he propelled himself into the top 10 of qualified players for an OPS of .767. Granted there are only about 45 qualified players left as so many move on from A ball half way through. Still he is young for the level and at the top of the league for hitting. A very impressive first year for Winokur. They mentioned on the broadcast that they talked to him about staying at shortstop and he felt that as long as he stayed limber enough he didn't see any reason he couldn't stay there. I think O'Neil Cruz is 6'6" and there have been other larger shortstops to make it. It will just depend on how his body develops, but he likes playing short and see's himself playing there. With the Draftee's at Fort Meyer's it has become a special team to watch. Culpepper looks great at short and 3rd. Amick has looked good in the field when I watched him and last night at the plate he he was 0-2 and came back to draw the walk which really impressed me. That walk started a rally. He is looking better than I thought so far. It is kind of a nightmare lineup for a pitcher to get through. The pitcher has to throw strikes as they don't expand the zone much and they all are good hitters That should be quite the group as they move up together. Winokur stole the show. Hopefully another top 100 prospect in the making.
  4. Dman
    This year the only must add to the 40 man looks like Raya. Next year though they have a fair number of arms to consider as it is with Morris, Lewis, Prielipp and Culpepper. That's a lot of arms they might need to potentially add in 2025 it would be even harder to find room for a 5th. He'll have to be really good to move past one of those 4 arms. If he ends up needing to be added it might take a trade to make room. Nowlin or MacCleod might need spots as well if they improve. Lot's of if's I know, and it would be great if Oliveros is in the mix to be added next year. It all usually works itself out I just see a tougher road than normal for him right now. So too your point, yes tricky.
  5. Dman
    His first three strikeouts were with pitches down the middle, but they looked like changeups and dropped right at the plate and all three guys swung over the top. I don't know maybe there were ready for that pitch and eliminated it as an out pitch? Not that you can completely trust the pitch tracker and it is hard to see on camera but it didn't seem like he moved the ball around enough after two strikes. Maybe he knew he was on a pitch limit and was looking for quick K's hard to say, but that is some of the harder contact I have seen a team get off of him when I have been watching.
  6. Dman
    I don't know how important .04 and .06 are, but that seems pretty close to plus IMO. Having watched Keirsey I am surprised by those numbers. I haven't seen every game or every play but I have never seen him miss a catch and he has made some amazing ones at the wall. His throws in look good too. Not sure why he would be in the average range but maybe the injury has sapped some ability? If he and Martin really are that close there would be literally no reason to add him. Martin is younger and can move up and down. He has the speed to steal bases and can also be used in the infield. Martin is also a right handed bat which are in short supply for the outfield. I think their bats would likely be similar with Keirsey having a slight slugging advantage. If there isn't much separating them and they have Rodriguez in the wings with Keaschall as a potential right handed bat for the outfield not too far away Keirsey might not make it to the 40 man,.
  7. Dman
    Even at his reasonable Salary I don't know if it would be all that easy to trade Paddack. It's essentially a 5.00 ERA with slightly below average K rate and he is a fly ball pitcher. I get that he might be better a year after TJ, but looking back at his numbers this year pretty much matches who he has always been. Add in the forearm strain that has him missing time right now and I think most teams would feel they can do better. Even if they could unload him say to the Angels would they really want to take another risk on Desclafani? I get that it's not ideal to have two rookies in the back end, but shouldn't the Twins be trying to develop those guys in season? With some refinement Festa looks like he could do as well as Paddack did this year if not better. Festa's K rate at the MLB level is really good he just needs better control and keep the ball in the park. Zebby has elite control and simply needs to work on command. He looks ready for MLB to me. Why make him wait? Morris is right behind them and likely one of Lewis, Prielipp, Raya, or Culpepper will be ready mid next year as well. There is enough depth and enough financial concern that now seems more like the time to develop the in house talent you have than searching for a wild card. If it were me I would try and build with the young guys. Let's see what we have or don't have using those last two spots on young arms. Give them the experience they need to get better. It might be a bit risky but if it works out you might have a pretty elite rotation and a young one at that.
  8. Dman
    We'll know how the Twins feel about Keirsey come the Rule V draft. With Kepler and Margo likely gone they should have room to add him unless they want to go the veteran route and or look for a right handed outfield bat. The choice might come down to Keirsey versus Rodriguez. With Wallner and Larnach as lefty corner outfielders and then Rodriguez who is a lefty who can play center or a corner do they need\want another lefty outfielder on the 40 man? That is what the FO will have to decide. If Lewis would/Could play in left or right it sure could balance the team better IMO. It would also make it more likely they add Keirsey as they would have another right handed bat for the outfield along with Martin and Castro when needed. Keirsey should bring plus defense to all three spots and while it is always hard to say how the hit tool will work out at the MLB level I think he can OPS around 700 at that level which should be good enough for a fourth outfield type. Even if he were added to the 40 man it would take injuries for him to hang on the 26 man, but he sure would be nice insurance IMO. We'll just have to wait and see what happens.
  9. Dman
    Yeah didn't mean to be too hard on him about K rate but at the lower levels I like to see K rate closer to 20% than 30% as you noted he is on his way their the last few months. I also like to see the walk rate 10% or better at the lower levels and he is at 9% so just a bit more improvement on K and Walk rate and his plate discipline and bat to ball should help him get pitches to improve on his batting average and Slugging. Maybe it's just the level but it seems like he has sacrificed slugging for plate discipline for the most part this year. So I think you are right that he might have a breakout season next year. He should have a better idea of what pitcher's are trying to do to him. I expect him to be swinging harder early in counts and maybe dialing it back a bit with two strikes. With him forcing the pitcher to throw strikes and his good bat to ball skills along with another offseason of muscle building. He could start turning into something special. Still really young so maybe 2026 to breakout but a guy can dream right?
  10. Dman
    Culpepper was giving up harder contact in the third inning. Not sure why he was throwing so much stuff right done the middle, but it was getting hit hard in the third. AA is a tougher level so he will need to adjust and stay on the edges more IMO. I will say a missed a call and maybe two of them extended his third inning. The runner was out at home and the ump was right there but missed it. The reply showed he clearly missed the call. Then they tried to steal third and it looked like they got that runner but he was called safe. The replay was so bad on that one though it was hard to say. All I can say is the ball beat the runner for sure. If he gets even one of those he gets out of the inning. Winokur looked good at short tonight and he looked good at the plate. His swing seems to really be coming along. Pitch recognition still seems like it could be better and the K rate is still high, but for his first year in pro ball he has done really well at A ball. I am super excited about Beltre as well. It will be interesting to see how he handles the better fastballs, breaking balls and offspeed he will face in the FCL Mercedes and Jose Rodriguez looked unstoppable in the DSL but have had a harder time since coming over. He seems to have a great approach and hopefully that will help him move fast.
  11. Dman
    I think he is the best arm we have in the pen. I'm amazed at how he just keeps getting better. Thankfully we have him for three more years.
  12. Dman
    I'm not as convinced as the rest of the board that Lewis "should" move up to AAA. While his K rate and ERA are really good for AA his FIP and xFIP say his ERA could be in the 4.40 range and his WHIP of 1.51 shows he has been good at stranding runners, but not as good keeping them off the bases. Right now he is more playing with fire than dominant IMO. I get that he is working his way back and AA is a tougher level, but I don't see a reason to move him just yet given his under lying numbers. I liked how Soto bared down with runners on base and didn't let them score. Makes me think he knows his stuff and feels he can get outs when he absolutely needs to. It's been several good outings in a row for him. Still stuff to work on, but I like the progress he has made this year and the fact he has pitched all year. McCusker with a big night and he has been the next best bat to Rodriguez and Keaschall at AA. In fact he is top 5 in the Texas league for OPS for those that qualify. He has worked to bring his K rate down from the 35% to 37% range to the 27% range this year and it has cost him some slugging (although just moving to AA probably costs most anyone some slugging). So he has developed into a viable hitter at the higher levels. He just needs to put a little polish on it ideally in the slugging department and he could make himself an option for the Twins or some other team. He is a big guy with a lot of power when he wants tap into it. His .284 average show he can hit and they could move him to AAA, but they probably need him more at AA right now.
  13. Dman
    It kind of feels like the Twins are done with retreads, but if they want some insurance in case the kids implode I could see them bringing in Hill. The thing is as we've seen these young guys can hold teams to just a few runs it's just that their starts could be more variable than you would like with implosions along the way. They did nothing of note at the deadline and they don't want to add salary. I'd say the odds are low they end up with Hill, but we'll see.
  14. Dman
    It's always an interesting ride with Laras. He gave up no runs but 7 hits in 5 innings or work with only 2 K's. He is good there's no doubt there, but he is going to need more to move up. I think he really needs to work on upping the fastball velocity and get that changeup working. The difference in speeds could really help him IMO. He is only 21 so still time to work on getting a few more ticks on the Fastball. Amick 0 for 2 but he had two walks. Unfortunately he also struck out twice. I like the walks but would like to see contact than K's for him. His line still looks good though. Bender hitting HR's like he was drafted to do. It's an interesting profile and if he conquers the zone he looks like he could be a bat that makes it. Nice to see the power and a 2 for 3 night. Morris with a great debut at AAA pretty much everything you could hope for except maybe K rate. I waffle with K rate sometimes as being efficient and getting quick outs is important too as it allows for opportunities to pitch into the 6th or 7th inning. I was not able to watch the game to see what kind of contact he gave up so hard to say if he was more lucky that good but his line of two hits, one walk and one run scored is really. really good. If he keeps that up he is going to be just fine and looing to be added to the 40 man next year. Starting pitching continues to be a strength in this system. Hopefully more bats get going.
  15. Dman
    Matthews looked pretty much like he always looks. Super poised on the mound. Gives up the Home Run no big deal gets the next out and next one. His pitches looked sharp for the most part and as noted he walked no one. He has pitched the same way at every level so far. I will say this umpire had a pretty large outside edge and Zebby benefited a few times on called third strikes out there. Also a fair number of balls hit to the warning track and yet he only gave up five hits, no walks and K'd five over 5 innings for a WHIP of 1.00 and ERA of 3.60. A great debut for him and to be honest right now he looks like he belongs in the big leagues. Still a lot to learn to be sure, but with his combination of mental toughness, trust in his pitches and ability to throw strikes I'm not sure what more you could want from a rookie that started at High A this year. For that matter the way he pitches I'm not sure what more you would want from a veteran pitcher. Throw strikes, get outs he seems to have that ability from the start.
  16. Dman
    Well said. The Twins sort of spent their wad on Correa, Lopez and Buxton. The rest will have to primarily come from the younger players they have developed. Festa, Matthews, and Morris look close to ready with Prielipp, Culpepper and Lewis not far behind. They are going to need that depth given how much drafting capital Cleveland puts into arms. Detroit is coming along and Chicago just drafted a potential ace in this years draft. The Twins are going to need to keep up in the arms race. The Twins also have some good looking young arms in Soto, Bohorquez, Carpenter and Hill. So they will have future depth as well. Arms are fickle things though. They can give out at any time. They can get stuck at levels and never make it. A lot has to go right, but there seems to be enough depth that even if just a few make it the Twins rotation should be in good shape now and in the future.
  17. Dman
    I have Soto 8th mainly because it is so early you can't tell where he will end up outcome wise. Since he is further away I put him further down the list, but he could end up being better than all of them. Need more data though IMO, so I dropped him and Bohorquez but you could easily argue they go much higher on the list. You could pick almost any order and I would be fine with it. It is just my biased order for the moment based more on close to ready than total talent.
  18. Dman
    It's a pretty nice nice top 9 arms in the system if you ask me> Don't forget Culpepper was rated higher than Morris, Matthews, Lewis and Prielipp at MLB.com and his being injured has dropped his stock but the stuff is there. The rest while maybe not elite show potential and if they don't make it as starters could be very good relievers. The list below doesn't include the intriguing Carpenter who might be a fairly fast mover or Hill who looks like he will take longer but could be an elite lefty. That's a lot of good arms with four of them pretty close to ready in Festa, Matthews, Morris, Lewis. With Culpepper, Prielipp or Raya likely to take leaps next year. Also not including wild cards in Canterino and Headrick who seem more likely to be relievers than starters, but still good arms if they come back from injury. Other arms of note would be Nowlin, Adams, Bowan and Ohl with longer odds yet, but they have been solid performers. There are lot's of good starting arms in the system everywhere you look. David Festa Zebby Mathews Andrew Morris CJ Culpepper Connor Prielipp Corey Lewis Marco Raya Charlie Soto Adrian Bohorquez Tanner Hall Spencer Bengard Cesar Laras Christian McCloud Ty Langenberg
  19. Dman
    I was watching on MiLB and Severino came up limping after an at bat. Haven't seen him since. Not sure how bad the injury is, but enough that he wasn't 100%. I had high hopes for Deardon and Olivar at AA. It's a tough level for hitters. Seems to stop them in their tracks as you have to be able conquer very good to elite offspeed and breaking pitches to be successful. We've seen life from Ross and and now Schobel after essentially a year or more at that level. I assume it will take time, though Deardon has been at this level before and ended up in the independent league. I still think he has the swing will have to hope it is a mini slump for him.
  20. Dman
    While I get there is no hurry since he is only 22 I think they should move Morris up. Just get him to a higher level and see what he's got. Not sure what they picked for an innings limit this year so it would be nice to see him there sooner if they are going to do it. Very happy to see Amick getting contact at this level since in zone swing and miss was why he fell down draft boards. If he conquers that it would be like getting a guy that might have gone as high as 25 at pick 60. We'll know more when he gets to AA, but still nice to see the high average. It's a high BABIP so not going to last but his K rate is good to start so that bodes well. Really hoping he improves the swing and miss because his power was easily top 20 in this years class. The question was can he contact the ball enough to make it all the way. I'm really liking what Beltre is doing in the DSL. Even though the numbers there can't be trusted for much I like that he is taking walks and hitting for power. Those are two skills that should help him be a fast mover.
  21. Dman
    I'm a little concerned it's too soon for Matthews as he has struggled with HR's and giving up more contact at the AAA level. Also he throws sooo many strikes I wonder if that will work well at the MLB level? Especially first pitch fastballs. The Royals aren't afraid to swing early. Still I can see why the Twins want him up. First of all he can throw strikes and doesn't appear to be intimidated by hitters as he likes to fill up the zone and make them earn their way on which is a trait the Twins love in their pitchers. Second, his near zero walk mantra is gutsy and it means he can be trusted to throw strikes in tough counts and make batters swing early hopefully with poor results. Control is his calling card. If he keeps the ball off Barrels he will be effective. Third even though his pitches are rated average his heater plays at 95 and he can pump it up to 98. He used it a lot his last time out and only gave up a lead off home run up in the zone with that approach. I think his cutter might be a plus pitch, but even if it isn't his 4 to 5 pitch mix combined with his plus to plus plus control should help him control at bats. My only concern is it is a tough jump and generally takes time to get acclimated to the MLB level and I'm not sure he is even acclimated to the AAA level. Still the one big thing he has in his favor though and likely why they willing to add him to the 40man early is he can and will throw strikes. He has proven this year he has the stuff to K guys and give up very few hits with virtually no walks. He just needs to put it all together at the highest level. Hopefully he's good to go and never has to look back. We'll know more after his first start.
  22. Dman
    Here is a link to his first game at high A (he starts as at 2:00:00 mark). It's hard to see much on MiLB TV and in this one the camera work was especially bad at least to start IIRC. Still on the good shots it looks like a nice easy delivery to me. I still think there are some control issues, but his stuff appears to be tough to square up and he gave up no runs in his 3 innings of work in that one. I think Stamina is something he will need to work on, but he is very young so I assume that build up will occur slowly. I am not quite as high as this Fangraphs writeup is on him, but I do see the same kind of potential they see. I think he and Soto could move through the system together, but will have to wait and see. "Bohorquez looks, rather soundly, like the best pitcher on the Twins’ Florida complex roster and like one of the higher-upside arms in the entire system. The physically mature righty will command a 92-96 mph fastball that sometimes has 19 inches of vertical break. Off of that he locates an upper-80s cutter to his glove side and then pulls the rug out from under hitters with a slower, mid-70s curveball that features 2,800 rpm of spin on average. He is going to carve up complex-level hitters all summer with this kind of stuff and, based on how advanced his feel for location is, he might not meet any resistance until he reaches High- or Double-A. Look for Bohorquez to develop something with some arm-side action like a split or changeup, something he can use to thwart lefties. That’s virtually the only thing standing between him and a contender’s no. 4 starter projection."
  23. Dman
    My immediate reaction is neither really benefited from that deal this year. Descla and Topa never made it to the regular season. I never was much of a believer in Gonzalaz and while only 20 I just don't see 'elite" bat there, It looks like it would take a ton of work for him to get there IMO. Bowan hasn't looked very good either. There are lot's of arms in the system I like better in front and behind him. Still he could make it as a reliever. but it feels like a long shot from what I have seen. The other side of me says they still have Topa for a few years and the prospects could have impact years next year. There is still hope but it is fading IMO. It feels like a nothing burger of a trade unless as @FlyingFinnsaid you add in the fact the saved money came in handy for other acquisitions this year. I guess the Twins win this one on hope and potential right now, and we'll have to wait see what the future holds to see if it looks better or if this trade is just a wash for both teams.
  24. Dman
    Prielipp's fastball looks good and the slider is a swing and miss pitch. He is still struggling to control his pitches and he doesn't appear to have much stamina yet as his pitches looked sharper in the first two innings and while he did manage two quick outs in the third his lack of control did him in. I think they keep him around 50 pitches and keep him healthy and call it good for this year. If he gets his control back he looks like he could be really good. I like his delivery and 95 MPH fastball he just needs more time to build up. Bohorquez looked good the first few innings and then seemed to tire as well. It's been a longer year for him this year. His fastball velocity is really good and if you watch him pitch it doesn't seem like it takes much effort for him to pump up the velocity. Looks like he is playing catch. Good to see them stretch him out some and give him some A ball time but I would keep the pitch count down. With better command and control he could be a fast mover next year. I don't know what to think of Langenburg. It's a different delivery and looks like it takes a lot of effort, but what a night. He gave up 4 hits but two of those were bunts as Maitan isn't fast and was playing back at third base so Peoria was bunting like crazy to get on base. With the bases loaded and no outs he K'd the next two guys and got a fly ball to end the inning. He pitched well and has been pitching well I'm just not sure if I see starter there or not. Still a great job pitching tonight. I love no walks as that seems like a pitcher that trusts his stuff and is fearless on the mound. Schobel with a 1.090 OPS in August to almost bring his season OPS to .700. I don't know if this is just a hot streak or if he has figured something out. I hope he has figured out how to barrel up those tough breaking balls and be ready to move up to the next level. He hasn't had a good month at AA yet so I am hopeful this one starts a trend like he had at High A where he was one of the top bats in the league. That was a clutch HR by Culpepper. Really nice to see him rise to the moment there. Still looks like issues chasing pitches though. I think that is something he should work on hard this offseason. He looks like a good one. I was down on Amick but he has been making contact and not worrying about power it appears. He has plenty of power and I know he will get to it in time, but I think focusing on contact is important for him given his in zone swing and miss issue's which dropped him from pick 30 to 60. If he conquers that he could end up being a steal for the Twins.
  25. Dman
    Facing Williams and his 98MPH fastball is no easy task, but this offense tends to go missing in big moments against good arms. Would have liked to see more patience at times, but Williams was not afraid to throw strikes. Needed guys to be dialed in but they just couldn't get it done. Very pleased with SWR's start despite the two solo shots. Going 7 and giving up just two runs should be enough. Offense needs to generate more runs if they want wins. A good game we just came out on the wrong end. When it comes to the pen wars Cleveland is setup to win. The Twins need to damage early and often to find wins against this club.
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