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Dman

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  1. Dman
    I see BR's WAR is very different from Fangraphs. I have no idea whose is more accurate, but I see where you are coming from if BR's is the most accurate. Pretty wild that they would be "that" different. It makes me wonder if BR changed their WAR calculation at some point because Fangraphs seems more consistent IMO. The way they calculate now BR has a lower WAR than Fangraphs where as Fangraphs has a lower calc for Viola. I don't get it but it has us talking apples and oranges right now.
  2. Dman
    Fangraphs shows Viola's WAR at 5.4 for 1987. Pablo was at 4.5 last year. Yeah I'd say that's fairly close. Clearly Viola was better but not out of the realm better. FWIW Blyleven's WAR in 87 was 2.2. Baily Obers WAR last year was 2.4. Joe Ryan's was 2.2 last year and he already sits at 3.,1 this year.
  3. Dman
    For 87 I think Pablo could be our Viola and Ober or Ryan as good as a late in his career Blyleven. 91 proves your point more while they didn't get Morris at the deadline he was the difference maker in the World Series for them. They got him in the offseason though. I think they have three starters who can compete well in the playoff's. And most of the playoff loses for the Twins were the offense not performing and or the pen melting down. It takes the whole team performing not just your ace pitcher. I'd have to look, but IIRC I don't think Sherzer or Verlander helped their teams that much in the playoffs last year and they were expensive acquisition's last year. Getting "your guy" doesn't guarantee victory, but sure it can give you a better chance.
  4. Dman
    I think about the question posed in the article a lot and I go back and forth on it a lot. The tough part for me about the deadline is that you have to pay a premium for a two month rental and an even greater premium for guys with an extra year. Also how much value does just that one player bring with them? If the Twins recent past is any indication they would have been better off not doing deadline deals. Still the Braves and Rangers likely don't win the World Series without their savvy deadline acquisitions. It's a risky gamble for every contending team every year and only one team comes out on top so the odds are fairly low that your moves make your team better than the rest. I think appetite for risk comes down to three things. short term team outlook, long term team outlook and available payroll. In the short term outlook who cares about prospects they are just assets that allow you to fill holes on the MLB roster to make it stronger. If you deplete your farm and have the money to spend up to or over the cap even if you make some bad trades you can still buy players in the offseason to strengthen your club. The short term outlook is putting all your chips into the middle every deadline until you have no chips left. The long term view is building a team via prospects to create a core group and then fill holes from there. The farm is the main source of talent as long term building is generally for teams with lower budgets as they can't afford much high priced talent. There does come a point though where a long term building team has to push their chips into the middle as the core of its good players is going to get too expensive to retain. I think the Twins are in the long term outlook category. They need to protect their prospects if they are going to sustain being a competitive team and not tear down and rebuild. Does that mean they can't trade away any of their prospects of course not, but trading long term assets for short term ones does bite harder for smaller market teams. Is this a year to go all in? I don't think so, but it clearly can be argued that a difference making starter could make a large difference in the post season for the Twins. If it were me I would be looking for a more elite lefty reliever and call it a deadline. We'll see what the Twins do.
  5. Dman
    Zebby with a tough night against a very good hitting team. He has more to learn about getting high end hitters out as he struggled in AA against the one good hitting team he faced there. I still am very impressed with what he has done this season. I can't remember a pitcher moving three levels in one season before. They usually get stuck at AA for a while. More refinement needed but at least he can be challenged at AAA. Man Prielipp has me sooo excited about his stuff and dreaming of having an elite lefty in the system. I would continue to take it slow, but golly gee wiz it's nice to see him back and dominating. I saw Deardon when he was at High A and knew he didn't belong there. At that time I thought he belonged at AAA. Glad to see him proving me right so far. His OPS in a smaller sample is higher than Keaschal's right now. I think this guy has an elite tool, but more time needed to make sure..
  6. Dman
    He looks like he is back and his K rate is the highest it has ever been at the upper levels so he has found ways to get more strikeouts. Recently the walks have been down. His FIP and xFIP aren't too far off of his ERA. Still it's a lot of ground balls and when they find holes he can get in trouble pretty fast. Season Team Level IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP LOB% GB% HR/FB ERA FIP xFIP 2024 MIN AAA 99.2 9.21 3.88 0.81 0.325 72.30% 59.20% 15.50% 3.61 4.18 4.08 In the International league for qualified players he is 3rd in ERA and Strikeouts. So clearly one of the better pitchers at the AAA level. And yet I still have some reservations that his stuff plays at the MLB level. The only way to find out though I guess would be to have him play at the MLB level. I'll leave the decision to those who have more data, but yeah he looks like he has earned a shot. The only problem is 40 man spots are in short supply and he only looks to have 5th starter upside. It feels like it would take a fair number of number of injuries for Randy to be considered at this point. I guess we wait and see what happens.
  7. Dman
    Sounds like a smart kid who made quick changes that made him an elite pitcher at the JC level. I really like the Carpenter pick and am excited to see what he can do in pro ball. He'll be in good hands with the Twins who will be careful with his development. Hopefully he can add a few more tick to the fastball and given the article he appears confident he can throw all his stuff for strikes. He just needs to keep them off barrels and he could be a fast mover.
  8. Dman
    I'm not sure how a primarily ground ball pitcher would suffer in high elevation? Wouldn't he be the cure to a fly ball pitcher? His ground ball rate is why a team like CO should be interested IMO.
  9. Dman
    I watched most of the Saints game last night but missed the beginning. I will say Randy seemed to be back to the old Randy. It is a bit smoke and mirrors, but he was getting a ton of ground balls and they were hit right at his fielders. A lot of fairly weak contact and he got them to swing early and put it in play. That Storm Chasers lineup is a good one so this was a good test. Still he ran into trouble around the 4th or 5th inning and looked to be tiring that inning, but was saved by a double play and eventually he went 7 and cam out for the 8th only to hit two guys and leave. I mean he looked good and efficient, but will his stuff play at the MLB level? I just don't know if I trust that it will. Still he is one of the better pitchers in AAA so far this season. I said I would never believe in him again as he has teased like this before, but here we are. I still think Festa is ahead of him as he can strike guys out and has a major league fastball. He and Varland might be close but Varland is on the 40 man and he is not. If Matthews continues to produce at the AAA level he likely would get the 40 man spot. I don't know how he would get back on the 40 man to see if his 92MPH fastball and breaking stuff would play, but he is looking like a viable 5th starter type right now. The caveat being a low K rate and high ground ball rate so you have to hope those balls don't find holes for him to hold up.
  10. Dman
    I wouldn't put a ton of stock in top 100 lists. The Royals haven't had a good overall farm system in a long time and with a few good free agency signings and a younger core of performing players they are in the hunt for the division title and they still have a low end farm system. The Guardians traditionally haven't done well on top 100 lists because pitching doesn't play well on top 100 lists and they continue to churn out pitching. With this last draft if they sign all 5 high school pitchers plus the college arms they took then this past draft is going to set them up very well for the next five years and if those players work out the next decade. To the point of the article yes I would love to see Cleveland waste some young controllable talent for just a year or two of higher priced veteran talent, but their FO is far too savvy to do that. IMO, If they make a move it will be around the edges and they will continue to trust in and rely on the players they have on the team and in the system. I do agree they have the capital to make a move and the right move could push them to another level, but will they take that risk for this team? I think they play it safe and stick with what they have. In the same vein I am hoping the Twins don't give up major assets at the deadline. I think they should keep the farm strong and stay away from trading their top 100 prospects. I know I will get killed for this but I do think they should continue on the Tampa, Oakland, Cleveland path of trading expensive players and building from the farm. That being said this team feels close to a complete team. A top of the rotation arm would help them quite a bit, but I still believe in the guys we have. We need all of them to perform well to get to a WS as it is. If the entire team doesn't perform it won't matter who they get at the deadline. However, If this team can peak at the right time I think they can do it with the guys they have.
  11. Dman
    No I was frustrated with those grounders as well, but he was hitting the ball in the air again recently. All I am saying is it takes time to adjust and contacting the ball is the most important thing. If you can't connect with the ball you can't get a hit. Hopefully he finds more barrels.
  12. Dman
    He's been injured a bit this year and his power is down. Last year he hit .300 in three of the 6 months he played and his OPS was around .900 a few months as well. Granted that was with the automatic Strike zone. He K's too much and walks too little so it is a HR power or bust bat type, but for catchers the bar is low on the hitting side anyway. I think there is a chance he can be an above average offensive catcher in time. Defense probably more average so to your point yeah pretty replaceable. Nothing special there with a backup catcher profile. What you are getting though is someone you can move up and down at will without needing to go through waivers and what not and he is dirt cheap. I haven't watched Williams, Isola or Winkel behind the plate recently but I would take Camargo over any of them given what I have seen when I watched them. While they certainly could take him off I still think he'd be the last guy. Maybe Canterino would be last.
  13. Dman
    I agree Lee only has a 15% K rate and he is walking at 7% so he is not having issues with contact at the MLB level. Just needs to refine getting some line drives to drop and or ground balls to roll through. I'd give him more time.
  14. Dman
    I would try to move Winder as he just doesn't seem to have the stuff right now and who knows if he ever will. Since the Twins added Lee to the 40 man I see no reason to keep Farmer on the 40 man unless you don't need the room or think you can't find enough playing time for Lee. If you really, really need the extra room I could see them trading or moving on from Headrick. Even at his best he seemed average to below average in his role. I still think he has good potential though so the player(s) they get would need to be worth it. Margo has been good against lefties. Unless you think Martin is as good an option you hang onto him, but I Wouldn't mind moving on from him. We don't have much for better options than Thielbar and Okert for lefties. Unless we are trading for one I assume we keep them and hope they perform better down the stretch? Not moving Camargo as there is virtually nothing behind him. My order would be 1) Winder 2)Farmer 3) Headrick 4) Okert 5) Margo 6) Thielbar 7) Canterino 8) Camargo
  15. Dman
    I really, really like Keirsey and I would love to have him back next year, but if I am DeShawn making a move might be in my best interest, First you have Buxton in the way and while he can be injured at times the Twins have used Martin and Castro there. Kiersey doesn't have Larnach or Wallner type pop for the corners but could play there and with Kepler in the way in right Keirsey seems wasted in left. If the Twins keep Kiriloff there is even less room in the corners. Looking down the road to next year and you have both Rodriguez and now Keaschal age 21, looking like they will be the next man up for outfield spots. With Jenkins, Mercedes and others on the way and it kind of feels too little too late for Keirsey IMO. I still think he would be a good 4th outfielder but I just can't see them making 40 man room for him with the other players they have and will have. Man being in that middle ground sucks, but that is what happens when there are only 40 spots. I don't see him making it with the Twins unless there were a ton of injuries or moves to clear more space.
  16. Dman
    Totally agree. I think the Twins were close to bringing him up a few times but he hasn't been able to stay healthy for an entire year most of his career. Some good pop in his bat and good on base skills. The Angels, Rockies or maybe Oakland would be better spots for him than the Twins who are loaded at the MLB level and minor league level. If the bat plays at the MLB level he would be a good get for some team. No MLB experience at 28 is gonna be tough to overcome.
  17. Dman
    I forgot exactly what happened but I thought he was only going to be out about a month or so. Seems the injury might be worse than thought otherwise I don't see them adding Bannon as they are very similar players. He's had a fair number of hamstring issues I wonder if maybe they want to give it more time to heal to keep it heathly longer?
  18. Dman
    Jenkins OPS is slowly climbing toward elite territory. If he qualified I think he would be in second place in OPS for his league behind only Mcgonnigle. Having more walks than K's should serve him well as he moves up. Hopefully he keeps those extra base hits coming. Keaschal is a freak. Very unusual for someone to handle AA this well in their first pro season. It makes me wonder how long Martin has with the Twins If Keaschal is gonna end up in center. Olivar had been slumping, but had a huge day at the plate. His defense keeps him under rated as a prospect, but that hit tool is legit. I went to a game and felt Cespedes wasn't taking good at bats and not squaring balls up. I don't know if he changed something but he has been punishing the ball lately. Really good to see him hitting more like the beginning of the season recently. I hope he keeps it up as he is legit defensively at third base. Some good things happening down on the farm.
  19. Dman
    Would be nice if the Twins could sign the last three pitchers although they might have to pay more than they might want for Jones who shows as just 20 years old and could head back to school. Still I can't believe Haugh and Peschl could want too much more than the 150,000 they can give as neither was ranked in the top 200 which would still only put them at around 250,000 for bonus money. They would have even less leverage next year unless they have spectacular seasons. I guess we'll see what happens in a few weeks. If they do sign for slot then it looks like Culpepper will get slot value at 21. I was surprised that Ferrer got 400K since I don't see that he was rated inside the top 200 or even 300 anywhere that I could see. I get those ratings are subjective and they don't get to see every player but I thought they would have squeezed a little more there especially since they really low balled Carr who likely would have been better off getting taken later or maybe senior signs just get abused in this system no matter what. At any rate if they get those two college arms signed then this looks like a nice class.
  20. Dman
    For 40 man players I have Kyle Farmer, Josh Winder, Ronnie Henriquez. For top 30 prospects I have Gabriel Gonzalez, Tanner Schobel, Ben Ross, Andrew Cossetti, Darren Bowen. I doubt we can get much for any of those players, but those are all assets I am fine trading for a rental player. I don't think getting Kikuchi or an average to below average arm is really worth losing an asset over, but I am far more pessimistic than most when it comes to buying at the deadline. If that is all they are aiming for I would just as soon use Festa, Varland and maybe Matthews. I doubt they do all that much worse than an older tired arm. If they aren't interested in spending the money then they should just stand pat IMO. They have bodies they can throw at whatever depth issues they might encounter. None of those options are elite options but given how these deals have worked out for the Twins in the past it will probably get them a similar result.
  21. Dman
    Kind of bummed about Anderson Nova. I get there are quite a few players even from his own class ahead of him in Rodriguez, Mercedes and Chourio, but 19 seems early to give on a player who had a .900 OPS in the Dominican league playing against kids his own age. I guess guys are going to have to get moved to make room for the new draft picks and he is a casualty. Beltre is looking pretty special. Having really good plate discipline will be a strong foundation for his batting profile moving forward. He also has good power already as well. It is going to be really interesting to see how he does in the FCL next year. Hoping for another Rodriguez type hitter, but we will have to wait and see.
  22. Dman
    Nice to see Wingrove get some love. Kind of Babe Ruth type body, but he can hit the ball hard. He's been an important bat for the Muscles. Hope he keeps it up. Man I was ready to give up on Williams in June after putting up three pretty bad months in a row at AAA. When he is hot is really hot as his July line leaves him with a 1.244 OPS carried by a.800 SLG. I guess he is back.
  23. Dman
    It's always a fine line on K rate for pitchers as efficiency is important too. If he is getting guys out on the first or second pitch there isn't time to get the K and not every pitch is gonna be a swing and miss pitch. Morris made it 6 inning's on 80 pitches which is very efficient. When you are throwing strikes as often as he he is K rate can be a bit more variable IMO. Agreed that he doesn't "appear" to have the deception that Zebby\Festa have, but it feels like he could K more guys if needed. I mean if they are willing to pop up or ground out you take that too. I do agree it looks like he has been getting a little lucky on BABIP and thus ERA. Neither mark will hold as he is bound to have some bad luck mixed in at some point. Still it looks like he is keeping hitters off barrels and that will certainly help with HR suppression and help with BABIP. Need more data to say much for sure I am just happy to see him doing so well at a higher level.
  24. Dman
    I tend to agree. It all looks like it might be easy for the Twins but if the bats don't have it and it is a close game, a walk, stolen base and bloop hit seem to be the things that kill us at some point. I hope the Twins win two but this type of team seems to be their kryptonite.
  25. Dman
    Happy to see him sign right away and be ready to go. Really looking forward to seeing what he can do. Was very happy Twins went up the middle on their first two picks. Should be a fun player to watch.
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