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Dman

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Everything posted by Dman

  1. Dman
    It seems like this is the time of year arms get "tired" or hitters catch up. I think they get a break over the all star game and we'll probably see guys get skipped for a few turns. Feels like Zebby was wearing down some as well. It's a long season for arms.
  2. Dman
    Happy to see Prielipp back and with a cherry on top dominating in his first outing at the FCL. Hoping he can pitch pain free the rest of this year and give us hope for 2025.
  3. Dman
    I mean I think only 5% to 10% of drafted players make it all the way to MLB and even fewer become star players. So yeah most of the time (90% of teh time) they are going to stall out at a level permanently. I think the main message of this article is simply not to give up too early. As we have recently seen with Castro and Rooker and others. Given time players can sometimes work through those struggles and be important players for a team even if it takes longer than expected..
  4. Dman
    Really happy to see Schobel hitting the ball with authority. I know he is better than his .600 OPS. Hoping he continues this trend and masters AA. For Keaschall all I can say is the guy is having an amazing first full year as a pro. Not many guys make it to AA and dominate the way he has so far in his first taste of pro pitching.. Very impressive stuff as he looks to be on the Brooks Lee track. Nice to see Deardon moved up and getting a couple of hits at a higher level. I think he will do well there and that lineup needs help as it is.
  5. Dman
    I get the lefty urge as all three of Thielbar, Okert and Funderburk have been less than reliable, but unless they are getting a closer type Lefty I don't think it will be worth it. Given the way things have worked out in the past for the Twins and several other teams I just don't see the need this year. Even when it comes to a starter I see the team standing pat this year trusting in the guys they have instead of a grass is greener scenario. Unless one of their big three gets injured I think they have the arms and bats to make it all the way if they play well. I know lot's of other people think differently and I get it. It is just the returns on their deadline deals have been so poor it doesn't seem worth it to me. I think they are better off believing in the guys they have.
  6. Dman
    I agree. At the time I thought it was a wasted signing. His bat had been pretty bad for a while and with Polanco and Gordon and Jullien and MIranda etc. I didn't even see a sliver of chance for him to even get a shot. Crazy how things work out. Sometimes getting cut is a huge wakeup call to double down on working hard with new found desperation to make it. Sometimes another team has different voices or different approaches and it changes everything. Whatever the case he has been an important\invaluable part of this team last year and this year. I wish I could say I was a believer from the beginning, but I was a doubter. Congrats to Castro on working hard to overcome his weaknesses and for believing in himself when others had given up on him. A well deserved All Star IMO.
  7. Dman
    It is a tough call to set scenarios up before the draft because you never know who is going to fall to you. 21 seems like a bit of a tough spot as most of the guys I like appear to be going earlier. However, if more pitchers get taken in the top 20, then one of those top bats could yet fall to the Twins. If that is the case I wouldn't look to "save" money and just choose the superior player. The only rumor I have heard is the Twins taking Sanford with an under slot deal at 21. It looks like his earliest landing spot would be 29 and if he doesn't go there then he could make it to his mocked spot of 33 to the Twins which seems like his floor. Pick 21 is worth $3,9M and 29 is worth 3M. If the Twins could get a 500 too 600 Grand discount there that could help them buy down a player it might be worth doing that. In my scenario they save 600K on Sanford. Take a college bat at 33 and then use the 600K if not a little more to buy their way back to the top of the 2nd round and grab a top prep pitcher if one is still available there. Or if they could go Prep pitcher at 33 they can buy down a bat. Whichever way they think works to their advantage. Sanford's Defense does appear to be very good, but there still are questions about the bat. If you believe the bat will come around he is a good pick at 21. If the bat doesn't develop ala Noah Miller then you have another Miller scenario. Joe Doyle seems to think Sanford may have unlocked something in the bat and has him ranked 21 on his board. Most mocks have teams less excited allowing him to drop. I like him as a pick at 33 just not sure about 21 given the talent that will be there. I do think Seaver King could fall to the Twins at 21 and if that does happen that would be my pick. I also still kind of like Janek at 21. His elite arm is tantalizing and even if the hit tool does fizzle some he has some power and decent plate discipline and it would be nice to have an elite defensive catcher in the system. Something the Twins haven't really had in a long time. I really like Gillen but he seems to be dropping on concerns about the arm. Some think his arm might be problematic enough to leave him at DH only which seems pessimistic and if King isn't there Gillen would be my next choice mainly because bat to ball skills seem to work out best. I have also heard the Twins connected to Culpepper who seems to fit their model well. Both he and King are players that could be moved around like Willie Castro so lot's of position versatility to go along with good exit velocity bats. I have also come around on Malcom Moore just not at 21 as I would rather have Janek. It will be interesting to see what they do.
  8. Dman
    I don't completely disagree on the timelines you have for elite prospect status, but I would add that progression is not linear. He could be stuck at A ball for two years figure things out and just like Schuanel be ready for MLB in one year. He technically only needs to be special at AA for 6 months to a year to prove he is ready. It doesn't have to be a level per year although elite players more often than not do move fast. Also to your point about injury he was injured early this year so his timeline has already been altered. Lewis is a great example that timelines can change due to injury. He had one poor year with the bat. Then got injured and lot's of outlets kept dropping him down boards from then on. It took a long time and very little playing time in between but he still proved to be an elite player. With the slow start to the year and maybe still concern about the hammy mentally and or physically I could see that impacting his power and when you look at the numbers that is something that is keeping his OPS down. He still has another three months to give us data on where he is at and we likely need to see him start a season healthy before getting too concerned IMO.
  9. Dman
    I wonder why Boston gave up on him? I don't see future star for Deardon, but 4th outfielder seems very possible to me if he can carry his success forward. I don't know how to explain it but he looked like he was on a different level to everyone else that took at bats last night. His quick compact swing just seems geared for success if you ask me. Granted I am no scout, but I do watch a lot of baseball and his swing looked really good to me. The other thing is why sign with the Twins at 26 when likely pretty much blocked? Shouldn't Miami or some other orgs in need of hitting have taken a flyer?. Again maybe I think he is better than he really is, but it seems like he could help a team unless maybe he gets locked up on the elite breaking stuff? Hard to say. Anyway FWIW he impressed me. Will have to wait and see if the higher levels trip him up.
  10. Dman
    I think those are good questions. The jury is still out on the defense, but that appears to be the weaker side of all the players you mentioned. Will just have to wait and see if even their hit tools pass the AA and AAA test as lot's of hitters fail at those levels. Still I have high hopes for all of them.
  11. Dman
    I like the underlying numbers for walk and K rate. I don't know what kind of contact he is making, but most of the times I have watched it has been weak contact I believe. Maybe someone can give us more info on that? If it is mainly weak contact then he needs to have the bat in better position to hit breaking balls. The approach is sound and that foundation is very important for future success. Now he needs to figure out how to better hit breaking stuff and off speed pitches. I think when he gains more skill there he will take off. No reason to be overly discouraged right now. If he was striking out a ton and chasing and not walking that would be concerning. He's not doing that. Let's give the kid a full year and see how he does. I still think he ends up a monster bat. It might just take more time than the crazy Holiday scenario.
  12. Dman
    I went to the Kernals game in Beloit to see what I could see. Doncon’s misplays at short cost them some runs in the first inning but after that he settled in nicely at short. His defense at short did make me miss Miller on defense though. I thought his plate appearances were really good even though he didn’t get a hit. He really knows the zone and swings at good pitches it just didn’t work out for him last night. He got too far under some balls and just weaker contact in general. I still believe in the bat especially since he appears to really know the zone. Olivar looked good too. Smoking some balls but they were all outs. His walk was well earned and showed his good eye and patience. Gabby had a really good game going two for four with a double. He really looks confident up there as he got the single with 2 strikes hitting through the infield the opposite way as they played him to pull the ball, but he didn’t. Some nice hitting there. I never knew Cespedas was so small with sort of chicken legs. The pitch recognition just isn’t the same as the first three guys. He had a rough night going 0 for 4. Was hoping to see him at third where I love his defense but they had Harry there. I have some concerns about the hit tool after watching him in person. Carr was not impressive pitching last night, giving up tons of hard contact with multiple warning track fly balls and 2 home runs along with well stroked singles. It’s early, but he looks like reliever material to me. Maybe just a bad night, but that was a brutal performance IMO. OK who is this Deardon guy? Whoever he is he doesn’t belong at High A. That swing looks like a major league swing to me. It is just easy and he gets so much good contact. I know he is 26 so no longer prospect material, but something’s not right because he doesn’t belong there. Way too good for that level. I would have him at AAA but he has to at least get moved to AA. His at bats really impressed me. Hopefully they move him up shortly after the draft as his talent is being wasted right now.
  13. Dman
    So the moral of the story here is hitting the ball, even if on the ground is better than missing it all together and striking out? I thought most all data points said hard hit line drives were the best way to increase OPS? Maybe this bat to contact stuff has some value after all.
  14. Dman
    I don't think many if any of us disagree, but I still think the Twins will hang onto him until at least the deadline. They will want to make sure the league doesn't figure out Lee giving him a month to make sure he sustains his play at the plate. They also might keep him until Lewis comes back. The problem is if they let him go they lose him and the money they spent to have him on the team. Another team would likely pick him up for the minimum and then if they had a need for someone like farmer they would need to spend more money or assets to get someone. They have enough guys to fill spots so they don't "have" to use him much so he isn't killing the team. I think they will hold onto him until later in the season when he likely becomes the odd man out or if injuries then they keep him to end.
  15. Dman
    I agree. He needs to be ready to make them earn their way on. Giving up that leadoff walk lead to 11 innings instead of 9. He's got the stuff and this isn't a good hitting team. Keep that nasty stuff in the zone against the guys that have trouble hitting and he wouldn't have had to give up a run there.
  16. Dman
    There is 20M reasons they won't bring Berrios back as they spent that money on Lopez Add in the length of the contract that was one of the reason they didn't extend him in the first place and I highly doubt they go after Jose.
  17. Dman
    I wouldn't be surprised to see him go as high as the Mariners with Milwaukee, and Tampa in the mix if they believe in the arm from the right side. If he can still be a reliever from the left side as well as starter or even reliever from the right and left side that is a huge weapon to have on the roster when you can only carry so many pitchers. Having a guy that could potentially start and relieve or relieve as both a righty and lefty means he could be available to pitch almost every day which would help keep your bullpen fresh. You would have to believe in the arm(s) though to take him that high.
  18. Dman
    Brecht is tough to place. He started the year in the top 15 on a lot of mocks with hopes the control would be better. He also had been placed closer to the comp round until seemingly connected to the Dodgers recently. He seems to make it to 21 in most mocks, but I think when the day comes he won't be there. I think there is a decent chance the Brewers take him. He would be a similar replacement for losing Corbin Burnes if they can solve his control issues. They might be able to get him under slot as well. I think he could go at 17. If not there why not Tampa? They could use an elite arm in their system and they are really good at developing arms. Brecht seems like great fit for them at 18. The Mets had and loved Thor I don't think a potential ace gets past the gambling Mets unless they like Honeycutt better. The Blue Jays have been connected to Brecht as well. Maybe they don't think he will be there when they pick either as they have been connected to college bats as well. He has ace potential stuff and with teams seeing whatSkene's has done I think one of those 4 will grab him before 21. Just my opinion though. If he were there for the Twins I am not sure if he would be my pick or not. It is tempting, but arms are so volatile they can easily turn into wasted picks. I do believe that every now and then the Twins need to do a putcher draft like they did in 2021. Don't worry about getting bats just go pitcher early and often. Not sure if this is the year they do something like that or not, but Brecht is a risk the Twins don't usually take.
  19. Dman
    This mock looks pretty spot on for me. Granted teams past the first 10 pick or so could take the next 12 players in a lot of different orders with a few surprise picks mixed in. Still given the consensus boards, the rumors and mock drafts this looks good to me. I have heard Wetherholt and Burns mocked to Cleveland, but Bazzana is just such a perfect fit for the Guards that I can't see them doing something different there. They could save a bunch of money with Wetherholt, but are those hammies going to be a thing? I don't think you take that kind of risk at 1-1. Burns on a deal makes sense, but the Guards are always in search of bats. I just think they end up picking Bazzana. Kurtz would be good value for San Fran but they have been connected primarily to arms and I think they go arm with that pick especially if Yesavage is available. The Mariners pick makes sense but if Yesavage was there I think they would go arm. Their system seems depleted of high level arms and he could be a fast mover for them. Gillen would match what they have done in the past, but I see them going pitcher in this scenario. I don't see Milwaukee taking another 3rd basemen type with three solid outfielder's in their range. They could afford to take a chance on Honeycutt but Benge, and Waldschmidt would make sense as well. I see them going outfielder or pitcher with their pick. If Benge falls to the Twins that would be ideal. I like Caldwell but I agree it seems like he will be bought down likely by Cleveland and if so that will be one hell of a draft for them. If Gillen is still there I might go GIllen over Benge, but I like that Benge might be a fast mover as I don't love our outfield depth in the system at it stands right now. Still given the Mocks I see both Benge and Waldschmidt appear to be gone by the time the Twins pick so it seems a doubtful scenario IMO. This is going to be an interesting draft. I just hope the Twins come out with some great players on day one.
  20. Dman
    I would love that draft for the Twins. A potential fast moving college outfielder paired with an up the middle, very good, defensive shortstop would rebalance the farm when Lee graduates off of prospect lists and Rodriguez as well likely next year when Kepler leaves. I also agree that after that haul they should go mainly pitching the rest of the way. If I were them given how their drafts have worked out in years past I wouldn't bother taking hitters outside the 3rd round. They have hit far more often on pitchers outside the 3rd round than hitters. I would invest in three bats with the first 5 picks and then go pitcher through day two and heavy again on day three. I would have them take 16 to 18 pitcher's this draft and only 4 or 5 bats. They have enough bats to fill out low A and can still sign free agents if they feel the need. Arms just break down so much I feel they need to take a lot of them and they have identified good ones in rounds 4 through 15. I think they should keep doing what has been successful for them and bats early and mostly arms later seems to be what has been working and they should lean into that.
  21. Dman
    Yasser Mercedes numbers in the FCL looking pretty similar to what he put up in the DSL in 2022. Good walk rate decent K rate and the slugging looks really nice. I have to believe a promotion to A ball where they could use good hitters is coming after the draft if not before. Doncon with his 3 for 4 day brought his OPS up to ..818 which is just ahead of Gonzalez for the moment. If he keeps getting those extra base hits to improve his slugging he could find himself in AA next year. Jefferson Morales is one of the very few players having a really good year at the plate in AA. He is 4th in the Texas league for OPS with McCusker in the top 10. They really miss Rodriguez so I hope he gets back there soon. Nice to see Lewis coming around and pitching well. The Surge have great starting pitching but the relievers have lost ton's of games for them this year. Lot's of guys looking really good and nice to see most of the 20 and under players coming on strong right now.
  22. Dman
    Olivar second place in OPS for the Midwest league at .923. Guessing he makes the move to AA sometime after the draft? They can move Poncho Ruiz up to take his place. Doncon trying to work that OPS up .800 and really bringing the power stroke right now. Kid is really hitting well for a 20 year old at High A. I haven't been real high on Gonzalez but a 3 for 6 night with a HR sure gets me more exited about his hit tool. He also is only 20 and he has an .836 OPS at High A. De Andrade is also a 20 year old and hopefully is back as he should be a good hitter as well. Lot's of young talent performing well at Cedar Rapids. Getting Gonzalez back and with Doncon and Baez starting to show more power and hitting well along with Olivar, suddenly the lineup has been lengthened and they are scoring more runs. The Kernals are a fun team to watch right now.
  23. Dman
    Morris looks like he is ready to come out of Zebby's shadow and one up him. It's a nice battle they both are having. Really great to see some elite arms bubbling up through the system.
  24. Dman
    He was on the 7 day injured list in 2023 by June 1st, but hadn't been performing well for a while so I would bet he was dealing with something before then, He didn't come back until July 26th if I read the transaction log correctly. 2022 his overall OPS was .917 and it is all small sample size stuff, but for your first pro year\2months OPSing .856 at St Paul is pretty incredible. For perspective that is better than Lee did his first year at much lower levels (.849 at High A) And better than Brooks first full year as a pro where he had a .732 OPS at AAA. There was good reason to be excited about what Shuffield was able to do in that Small sample size it just didn't hold up. If it had again we would be talking about him differently. I do get your point though. The odds of even a first round pick making it to MLB are not that great so imagine the the astronomical odds of an undrafted player making it. The odds are very long that someone with good enough skills to be in MLB would get looked over. Still some players do beat the odds. (technically Randy Dobnak would be one) Eeles has the skills that we all look for in guys in the top 30 he is just getting to be on the older side for being a prospect and along with that the sample size of the numbers is too small to know if he can support them as he moves up. I don't love that they bumped him to AAA, but if he handles it that would be quite the accomplishment IMO.
  25. Dman
    I think it is only terrible news if he doesn't perform well there. Shuffield would have been OK if he kept hitting, but injuries and poor performance have kept him from the upper levels except emergencies. If Prato backed up his numbers from last year we all would be having a different conversation about him, but since he didn't things look pretty bad right now. Yake and Perez weren't even on the same level as the others as they never hit that well anywhere. They never had a year like Shuffield, Prato and now possibly like Eeles is having. Eeles bat slowed down a tick at High A mainly in the power department but the walk to K ratio improved there. He has really good contact skills although often times weak contact, but with his plate discipline he has a really good chance to hunt for good pitches to hit. His underlying numbers all look good to support that he can continue to do well moving forward but the sample size is still small right now. He also has better speed than any of the others mentioned. We'll have to wait and see how he does, but just like Brooks Lee or any other prospect if he puts up the numbers and is consistent he'll make the top 30.
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