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Dman

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Everything posted by Dman

  1. Dman
    There's virtually no plus bats left after the second round except maybe four sort of flawed guys and a tougher high school sign in Rigdon. Gotta believe the Twins will go arm heavy the rest of the way. In fact I would go arms with the next 7 picks unless maybe they have some JC guy they really like at some point. Hoping they have room in the budget for another HS arm or two or three or four.
  2. Dman
    I'd watch for Milwaukee or Cleveland to have money to sign a big name high schooler. They should have good under slot money left. I don't think anyone else has the money it would take to grab them.
  3. Dman
    If he fits models with exit velocity it seems strange that he would fall to 60. He had rumored steam in the comp round range but no one bit until the Twins who kind of had an extra pick to play with there. I'm not as big a believer in exit velocity though I do agree power is important. You can see the conundrum more when you look at a player like Martin. Will he ever OPS much over .700 even with great onbase skills? You need some power or your value gets diminished. Camargo and Wallner were guys with great exit velocities and there have been months where Camargo has hit for average as well as power, but when you move them to MLB the swing and miss really get s amplified and makes for a tough transition. Rooker whom I gave up on did eventually make it and maybe Wallner will too, It just seems like a slow long hard road with those types of hitters. With plenty falling by the wayside. Sabato who is also a bit stiff at the plate looks like he isn't going to make it and they loved his exit velocities too. I'm trying to think of someone with good contact and on base skills that didn't make it. It also seems the odds are better teaching someone with good contact skills to swing harder at times to get to more power than a power hitter somehow gaining contact skills. The Twins are obviously believers in Amick and I do hope they are right and I have to eat crow, but I don't see that pick working out well.
  4. Dman
    Call it draft envy, but I think that Cleveland, KC and to some degree Chicago had higher upside drafts IMO. The Guards with Bazana, Doughty and Cozart. All three are really good gets and I doubt they have spent their savings from pick 1 so I suspect a big move on day 2 for them. KC with with major power bat in Cags and then a pitcher I really, really like in Shields. They got better with their two picks and they pick early in round 3. Chicago getting Smith is just criminal. They are going to have one tough pitching staff in a couple of years. I assume they will try to land position players in the trades they make. Starting to look like another fast rebuild for Chicago Detroit appears to be following the Orioles approach going with young talent playing the long game until they are busting at the seems with talent. Not sure I love their draft more than the Twins as high school players are so hard to predict, but they took high upside players with star potential The Twins did well but I don't see a lot of star power. Maybe Culpepper and Hill. I like Hill's projection as much or more than Doughty and Shields. DeBarge should be a good on base guy but will that be enough or can he tap into more power? I hope the Twins picked the right guys. Time will tell.
  5. Dman
    Not trying to assassinate anyone's character and I just mentioned it "might" be a reason. He was highly connected to Detroit and San Fran. The Giants didn't take Yesavage either so they weren't in on pitching like everyone thought so likely nothing to do with Camaniti. I agree HS pitchers come with tons of risk. He could have just fallen based on that. It was just something I read on just one site and it made me wonder if it might have contributed to his fall, but there are plenty of other reasons.
  6. Dman
    Yeah I think this is a pick where the scouts give the middle finger to the analytics guys and rip up the report and go with their gut. Or scenario number two they ignore what's bad in the report and say look at those great exit velocity numbers we have to have this guy. To your point he has produced and with wooden bats so there is a track record there, but swing and miss only gets amplified as you move up levels. The Twins love to try and fix these guys, but not many get fixed IMO. I guess what is somewhat maddening to me is it is well known that contact skills really enhance a hitters ability to make it to MLB baseball and the Twins have models just like other teams that tell them pretty much the same things. I guess I would love to know why they would go against their model? Do they believe in it or not? That's my question. I know CES had swing issues models didn't like and the Twins took a chance in the 4th round and that worked out pretty well. Still Sabato didn't, Cavaco didn't. Larnach is taking a looong time and still somewhat struggling. We see that when they follow the model they can pull guys like Lee and Keaschall which have been fast movers. I just don't understand dropping the model unless maybe they see some kind of fix for the contact rates that pretty much all other teams passed on. I just think these early picks are really important picks especially for bats and taking a high risk flyer there even at 60 doesn't feel like a good use of that pick. Maybe he beats the projection model and he works out great. I really hope he does. Still it is just a pick that irks me.
  7. Dman
    Totally agree on Brecht. When the Dodgers and Atlanta passed and then others it showed teams felt the risk was just too high even for the immense reward that might be had. I will be following him to see how he does. He hasn't pitched that long or had good instruction which makes me wonder if he can find more control. You could almost argue the Twins got no first rounders if not including the comp round.. Culpepper and Amick were at their highest on MLB.com in the 31 range which is just outside the top 30 although I do feel like Culpepper might be a bit underrated as his skills match up pretty well with Seaver King who was taken #10. King has a bit more power and better speed to play center which Culpepper cannot do other than that they both have a lot of versatility and can hit with some chase to work on. DeBarge was never in a top 30 that I could see always second round or even lower. Amick was ranked around Culpepper on MLB.com but several other boards had him as a 2nd round pick or lower as well. Hill was more in the Comp A to 2nd round area as well. Don't get me wrong I think the Twins got some really good players in this draft and rankings are subjective as no one knows who will make it or who won't, but I think 4 first rounders would be stretching it pretty far. I think you are right top 50 type players with the first two being safer type picks and the next two more risky betting on upside.
  8. Dman
    Yeah his profile doesn't look good for power IMO. That is why someone with his bat to ball skills was ranked into the second round. Power is important. He likely is on an Austin Martin track, but the Twins have found ways to get smaller guys to more power usually by selling out pull side early in counts. We'll see how well he does there. His hit tool should be rock solid though so I expect a good batting average and onbase skills.
  9. Dman
    They might go one last bat in the third depending on what's left but I think the arms will outweigh the bats the rest of the way IMO. I think they will have to come up with extra money to sign Hill. Not sure what they might have gotten under slot with the first two picks, but Hill will take more than 1M I would think.
  10. Dman
    Every board is different but we know that what most models look for is contact rate. While it doesn't mean a player can't be successful, over time you'll see that if players have trouble with bat to ball skills in college they have a hard time overcoming that in pro ball. Fangraphs has him rated 84th on their board and this is their writeup. "Transfer from Clemson. Flub-prone third base defender with mixed arm accuracy. Range and hands both below average at third. Hit .306/.387/.639 with an 18% K% as a junior, which was worse than his sophomore line. Physical righty bat with plus raw power. Pulls mistakes at the top of the strike zone. Posted a 70% contact rate and 81% in-zone contact rate in 2024; only a handful of qualified big league third basemen have had rates that low the last 10 years and they were facing big league pitching. Amick doesn't track pitches especially well and his pull-heavy style leaves him vulnerable on the outer third. He chases a lot, too, in the 33-35% range. I'm lower here than consensus by a pretty good bit; this is a high-risk corner infield hitter with a ton of hit tool risk." I heard he had an appendectomy or something and that likely impacted his numbers this year so I assume the Twins are betting on upside, but there is a ton of risk there that other teams didn't want to take on or number 30 wouldn't have fallen to 60 or beyond if the Twins hadn't taken him. Fangraphs was closer to right than other boards. FWIW Keaschall was the exact opposite of this profile. He had really good contact rates and plate discipline which allowed him to move up fast. Those are things more in common with the first two picks the Twins made that no one seems to like.
  11. Dman
    Yeah I don't know why the Twins fell off of Caldwell. He was the only prep player left on the board with a plus hit tool. I liked Waldschmidt there too although his weak arm did give me some pause the hitting skills plus power seemed elite to me. Still he fell pretty far down the board so other teams didn't like something there either. I have to think they really believed in Culpepper. It took them a long time to pick at 21. There must have been a lot of debate over who to take there.
  12. Dman
    Most exciting pick of the night. Big, tall lanky lefty that can already throw strikes with projection left. He was rated the 24th best prospect on Fangraphs. They did well to nab him at pick 69. Hoping for more pitchers on day 2. There isn't much left for bats left so I think they should go arms pretty much the rest of the way.
  13. Dman
    I don't love the pick. Power over hit is the most frustrating kind of player for me. Generally just full of chase and K's. He can take walks but he even has in zone swing and miss. I would rather take a HS pitcher than this type of player, but the Twins must think they can tweak things and if they can this would be excellent value at pick 60. Just not a pick I would make as it far too easily could be a wasted pick.
  14. Dman
    He was one of the few guys with a plus hit tool and plus plate discipline left in a draft short on good hitters. He also has plus speed and can likely play anywhere on the team. His weakness is not much power, but hopefully the Twins can help him tap into that more over time. It was a good pick and he could be a fast mover given the profile. Arms always sound great early, but the Twins can get arms later in the draft but not much for bats after the first two to three rounds. Best to get bats early and take lot's of arms later where they have been able to develop guys in the past.
  15. Dman
    It's a solid pick. He has a plus hit tool and a lot of positional flexibility. I was concerned with the chase rate out of the zone, but he is one of the better hitters in this class. Pretty sure the Twins will work to get him to at least average power if not more, but we'll have to wait and see. No one liked the Keaschall pick either until he started flying through the system. The Twins are big on high character guys and I heard there might be questions about Camaniti in that regard. He was heavily connected to SF and they didn't take him. Lot's of the top teams had their chance. I think there were reasons he fell down boards.
  16. Dman
    That was a good draft. First two players with plus hit tools and the DeBarge with very good plate discipline to boot just lacking power, but we'll see if the Twins can't help him find more power. There weren't many plus hitters in this class so getting those types of hitters it was going to have to be early or not at all. They also got a ton of positional flexibility with both players as well. I maybe would have liked Waldschmidt better than Culpepper, but I guess they felt differently. Still those are two very good bats in a class with about 40 good ones tops. I am not a huge fan of the Amick pick. He chases a lot and K's a lot and even misses in zone a lot. I hope the Twins have a plan to fix a lot of stuff in his swing and with plate discipline or that was a wasted pick. He can take some walks so all is not lost, but I anticipate him being a slow mover. Maybe he will surprise me but there is a reason the other 29 teams passed on him and sometimes twice. Hopefully he will be better than the numbers indicate. The Hill pick was the cherry on top. A big tall lanky lefty arm with a ton of projection left and the ability to throw strikes. That was a really good get at 69. The bats look pretty dried up unless you are going power over hit so I suspect the Twins go mainly arms on day two.
  17. Dman
    It's a well rounded profile. He has plus hit tool with a fairly even walk to K rate. A plus arm and solid average speed who can play shortstop but won't be elite there. He is rated as slightly below average power but I bet the Twins will get him to average if not slightly above. His swing plane is flat so there might be untapped potential with the bat. The bad is I hear he does chase out of the zone more than you would like. He has potential to do everything well with no standout tool other than his arm and his bat if it does end up plus as he moves up. It's a solid profile but hard to see star player there unless things change with the bat.
  18. Dman
    I think there might be more pitching going top 20 than was originally expected.
  19. Dman
    It will be BPA for the Twins, but I agree going HS makes a lot of sense right now. They have some young players in Doncon, De Andrade, Gonzalez that are only 20 years old then add in Jenkins, Soto, Winoker, Mercedes, Dameury Pena and Daniel Pena who are only 19 and then add in some 18 year olds this draft and the Twins would would be setup for another wave of talent in 4 to 5 years. Adding to what you said if some of those players don't work out they could go with faster moving college players in future drafts. So I think HS players make a lot of sense, but we'll see what they decide to do.
  20. Dman
    I still think Soto's Best game was April 13th with 4IP, no hits, 1 walk and 7K's, but if you feel longer is better then I guess this was his best. Nice to see him dominate again as it seem like it has been a while. I was surprised they let him go that long, but it was a nice test. Hopefully he keeps this up. That change up is a real weapon but it is dependent on the fastball not getting hit so much.
  21. Dman
    The way the boards are shaking out I think many of my favorite players will be gone by the time the Twins pick. I am hoping the hitters the Twins are targeting are players with excellent contact skills and plate Discipline. Those are generally fast movers like Lee and Keaschall. You can have players like Miranda that have great contact skills but lack plate discipline and it can take longer as they try and acquire that skill. Maybe they have great plate discipline like Julien but lack elite contact skills. It is going to take longer to get there. Maybe they have huge power but K too much it is gonna take longer to get there if at all ala Sabato, Wallner, Rooker. Given the way I see the board falling I see them most likely grabbing Malcom Moore, Janek or Culpepper at 21. If Gillen is there he should be the pick, but in most mocks he is gone. There are two players that could fall to 21 that with a bit more polish would be top 5 picks in Honeycut and Brecht. Honeycutt has a very high K rate but all his other tools are elite. His sophomore year he evened out his K rate and walk rate but lost most of his power. Is he someone a team could help bring down the K rate and turn into an average hitter with power? That would be the risk and the odds would be long as contact is hard to teach and it only gets tougher as you move up levels. At any rate if they want to swing for the fences in an all or nothing pick he is there. If he turns out he is a likely All Star player if not then just an elite defensive outfielder. Brecht just started pitching full time and has been getting slightly better with his control as the year progressed. If he had any semblance of control he would be a top 5 to 10 pick. He is tantalizing enough that he could still go in the top 20 (I have the Brewers taking him) but he also could easily slide to 21 where the Twins would have to decide if he can ever harness his amazing stuff. Given most boards if not taken in the top 20 he goes somewhere in picks 21 to 30. Generally I would say no way to this pick but there is some thought that he hasn't had the best coaching and that it might not take much to get him on track. The alternative is he never makes it because be can't throw enough strikes. Gonna be an interesting draft as I think team needs might trump where the boards have some players. They are so evenly matched after pick 12 or 13 that depending on how you view the player you could justifiably go any direction.
  22. Dman
    It seems like this is the time of year arms get "tired" or hitters catch up. I think they get a break over the all star game and we'll probably see guys get skipped for a few turns. Feels like Zebby was wearing down some as well. It's a long season for arms.
  23. Dman
    Happy to see Prielipp back and with a cherry on top dominating in his first outing at the FCL. Hoping he can pitch pain free the rest of this year and give us hope for 2025.
  24. Dman
    I mean I think only 5% to 10% of drafted players make it all the way to MLB and even fewer become star players. So yeah most of the time (90% of teh time) they are going to stall out at a level permanently. I think the main message of this article is simply not to give up too early. As we have recently seen with Castro and Rooker and others. Given time players can sometimes work through those struggles and be important players for a team even if it takes longer than expected..
  25. Dman
    Really happy to see Schobel hitting the ball with authority. I know he is better than his .600 OPS. Hoping he continues this trend and masters AA. For Keaschall all I can say is the guy is having an amazing first full year as a pro. Not many guys make it to AA and dominate the way he has so far in his first taste of pro pitching.. Very impressive stuff as he looks to be on the Brooks Lee track. Nice to see Deardon moved up and getting a couple of hits at a higher level. I think he will do well there and that lineup needs help as it is.
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