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Dman

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Everything posted by Dman

  1. Dman
    If he masters that right side he should be a monster bat having the platoon advantage all the time. I just hope he keeps swinging the bat well the next month or so to be certain it isn't just a hot streak. His ability to play all infield positions makes him a very flexible player which helps when moving guys around. If he is going to be good from both sides no reason to platoon him either. Lot's of things to like about Lee.
  2. Dman
    I'm a sucker for High School arms. I never met a High School arm I didn't like. So much to dream on and time to get there it makes you want to grab one early and often. Getting them to work out is another story though. Stewart, Gonsalves, Leech, Enlow, Balazovich, etc. All had great potential but little to no impact at the MLB level. High School arms are really tough to project. There are some really tempting arms in this class and if any of the arms mentioned here fell to 33 I could see the Twins grabbing one of them. Still I think taking bats with the first two picks seems most likely as the odds of them working out is generally better. And yet, I liked what they did last year with Soto and they have that extra pick so we'll see what they decide to do. I assume it would depend on what falls to them at 33.
  3. Dman
    I guess Lee really didn't care for the narrative that he can't hit from the right side. Taking two lefties deep is certainly a way to change perceptions. While it is just a few games this is the Brooks Lee we have been waiting to see. He is looking like another Lewis right now. We'll see how he holds up through the All Star break, but right now he sure looks healthy and ready to mash baseballs.
  4. Dman
    MacLeod came with the 2021 group that all got traded away. We can probably count Povich as as an org success (draft wise) as he is a starting pitcher with Baltimore now and Petty looks on track to be a good one as well. They just got traded away. I still see Nowlin as a reliever, but he really opened my eyes with that last start so he is slowly turning me. If he hits Wow what a group of arms at AA right now in Matthews, Morris, Lewis, Raya, Nowlin, Ohl and a resurgent but older Rozek. If most of that group pans out that is whole other starting 5 they would have and that doesn't include Festa. Still quite a ways to go, but nice to see that kind of talent this far up the system.
  5. Dman
    Things are starting to look better. Those arms still have to transition to MLB though. Festa is a top AAA arm and if he maintains that status while not walking so many guys he could be a top of the rotation pitcher. Kind of the same thing with Raya. He has plus pitches, but gets into long counts and walks too many and also has been giving up too many hits. A bit more refinement though and that looks like a very good arm. The four guys from the 2022 draft all seem to have very good control with Matthews the best of the bunch. Morris has hung right with him though and seems to be getting better and better. Lewis looking a little shaky coming back and pretty sure he will adjust, but AA is a tough level. Culpepper has been hurt and hasn't made it to AA but he has the stuff to get there if he can keep his arm healthy. That group might be the best class of arms they have ever drafted together and that is with Preilipp on the shelf who was supposed to be the best of the bunch. Their 2023 class is starting to show signs of life as well. Langenburg has moved up. Bengard has looked dominant at A ball and Hall is starting to come on strong with Santos looking like a potential high end reliever. It's still a long ways from A or AA to the Majors and arm health is paramount to getting there, but this is the most quality pitching depth I have seen in the system since the Varland, Balazovich, Canterino, Enlow, Ober days. Hopefully this group stays healthy and nets us a couple more good starters.
  6. Dman
    I looked into Jenkins numbers to see what I could see and it looks more like bad luck than anything else. K rate 14%. Walk rate 16%. He is being patient and he is hitting the ball but his BABIP is .226. I am not sure if most of that is weak contact or not, but I think his numbers just need time to shake out. Doesn't appear to be an approach problem that I can see. Maybe someone else can take a deeper dive into what kind of contact he is generating.
  7. Dman
    Lee has been good at AAA in his brief time there. He is off to that .900 OPS we all like to see to prove he can dominate the last level before being called up, but I think it is going to be at least another month before we see him. First they'll want to give him some time to prove the injury is behind him. They will also want to make sure he can sustain these numbers. And finally they need to find a 40 man spot for him and I don't see them moving on from Farmer as he hits lefties better than Lee. Maybe at the trade deadline they can make moves to clear some space, but I think its gonna be a while yet before they make room for him. Obviously the better he does at AAA he can put more pressure on them to find room. I just think they will be patient.
  8. Dman
    For the most part I liked the challenge system in the games I saw. The challenges were quick (ten seconds or so) and in most cases the umpire won anyway. The ones they lost were very close within less than half an inch most times. I think its a way to keep the umpire honest and the players less upset as calls get confirmed. Honestly it feels like three challenges might not be enough and or I think if all used they should at least get one more challenge for the 9th inning. I think the biggest thing it helps with is correcting potential egregious calls. Sometimes you aren't setup right and miss a call and the challenge system can make it right. An umpire doesn't want to get overruled by the system and look bad so it creates incentive to call a better game IMO. If players aren't bothered enough by calls to challenge them then they were close enough anyway. Honestly if the umpires are as good as the games I saw I wouldn't' t mind if they gave more challenges like one per inning or something. I think if the umpire is right most of the time they would quit challenging anyway. As I said above I think it also helps players get less frustrated when a call is confirmed or over turned in their favor as they have some control to make sure the call is correct. IMO it seems like a nice compromise and something that could make its way to Major League Baseball sooner than total ABS. It gives both sides more control with a way to make really bad calls right.
  9. Dman
    I don't know what to think about Eeles just yet. I jumped on the Schufield bandwagon when he had a .856 OPS at AAA his first season, but he hasn't done much since then. I have only watched Eels a handful of times and most of what I saw was weak contact, some K's, some walks, HBP and I did get to see him smoke that triple last night. Maybe I caught him on off nights, but he looked pretty average the times I have watched him. Still the numbers don't lie and he has really good numbers in A ball. Walks (15%) and K's (17%) almost the same. A .300 batting average and .500 SLGing in a league where the average OPS is like .730 or something like that and he had a .965 OPS. Granted he was only there about one month and he is old for that level so you would expect him to dominate especially short term. Lot's of players do well at A ball then struggle at High A or at the dreaded AA level so there is a long way to go. Still if you watch him at the plate. See his speed in action. I think you would come away thinking this guy could be a special hitter\player. The sample size is too small to predict much, but with a good eye at the plate and good contact skills along with decent power I wouldn't bet against this guy. It sure looks like the Twins might have found a diamond in the rough.
  10. Dman
    So with Cijntje if he remains a righty starter is he an arm that after a couple of days could pitch out of the pen using his left arm? Or say he becomes a reliever could he pitch righty two days and then lefty two days and continuously be used in the pen? Could be a versatile arm to have if he can maximize both sides. There are a lot of good arms to choose from in the first 33 picks but I still think bats are the way to go. Almost impossible to find elite bats outside the first 100 picks or so and this draft seems lighter than normal for bats. Still with the extra picks they could go bat, arm, bat arm. When going pitcher, going with elite pitches plus control is the way to go, but arms get injured so easy and often that if that happens you get nothing out of a high pick. I like what they did last year with three high end bats in the first three rounds and then pretty much pitching the rest of the way. They should grab an arm with one of there first 4 picks and 33 might be a good spot to get one, but 60 could work too. Will be interesting to see what they do.
  11. Dman
    Man I can't remember a Twins player on the kind of heater Correa has been on for this long. He is catching some lucky breaks on some hits falling in no mans land or just squeezing through, but most are good solid hits. He is really helping the team with his bat right now.
  12. Dman
    Its been a while. He was a pop up prospect. He hadn't been at a lot of events that most top prospects go to. He held some private workouts and from what I understand had good power, great speed, and a great arm. His actions at third looked pro ready at 18. They took a chance that the hit tool would develop as they loved, loved the other tools. Never bet on tools outside of the hit tool. Cavaco is just one of many cautionary tales. The Brewers and Cory Ray would be another. I have no inside knowledge, but I have to believe the scouting department overrode the analytics dept as it seemed well known that Cavaco might not hit. I just don't see how analytics could have been on board when so many others were not. I think Keith Law was not a fan of the pick at that point in the draft and he was right about Cavaco's hit tool. Other pundits thought it was a long shot as well. For context. At the time the Twins needed shortstop help in the worst way and the system had very few high end infield prospects. Its hard to find 5 tool players where the Twins were picking and if, if ,if the the hit tool hit they would have had a very talented player at a position of need, but he didn't really improve with the bat at all. It was an all in gamble that failed.
  13. Dman
    I am not in the "know", but I think ERod is gonna be out a while. It sounds like just a sprained thumb and he tried to play through it only to injure it further so I am thinking 6 weeks to two months for something like that to heal properly? Gonzalez I thought was back spams and he has been out a while so I would assume he could be back soon, but I suppose it depends how long it takes to make sure it won't be a reoccurring issue. Sabato needs to keep his slugging up and K rate down for the rest of the year to likely get any prospect love. He has had splashes of good play only to regress. He just turned 25 if he doesn't improve this year he probably isn't a prospect anymore. Doesn't mean he can't make it (i.e. Brent Rooker) but after 25 you generally kind of are who you are so dreaming on upside is generally gone. A good year and move to AAA would probably buy him one more year as a "prospect". Kind of make or break year in that respect IMO.
  14. Dman
    And it would have looked like a horrible decision last year and we don't know what will happen in future years yet. Look I like Correa but 10 to 13 years is a long time. You have to weigh all the years before truly knowing if you made the right decision. The Giants wanted him until the medicals. We'll see what happens. As of right now today I doubt they regret their decision,
  15. Dman
    The article wasn't about us liking the Correa deal it was about the Mets\Giants feeling like they missed out. After one pretty poor year and one hot streak and an injury that many doctors didn't feel would hold up long term I don't think they feel like they missed out on guaranteeing 10 to 13 years. Just my opinion though. Minnesota got what they needed with large short term dollars and a way to cut him loose if his performance declines. This team desperately needed to fill the shortstop hole. So I would say the risk was worth it for the Twins. We'll see how it works out long term. Maybe they will feel they missed out, but it is way to early to know for sure as the main issue was the years not the dollars IMO.
  16. Dman
    Happy to see Eeles promoted as the Kernel's need to lengthen the lineup. Hopefully they get Gonzalez and De Andrade back soon as that would help as well. They just need to Steal Bengard from Fort Myers and then they should be in pretty good shape for a second half playoff run.
  17. Dman
    That would be highway robbery. A top 100 putcher and hitter plus Kirolloff for 60 days of Alonso? Guy must be a huge Mets fan.
  18. Dman
    I was sorry to hear he was let go, but they gave him as much time as they could to improve and he has been pretty much the same hitter since he walked in as a teenager. I am sure he gave it everything he had but only about 5% of these guys make it all the way. Has to be tough to see your dream come to an end. I wish him the best.
  19. Dman
    I was surprised he elected Free Agency, but after thinking about it more I guess it makes a ton of sense. He wasn't going to get another chance with the Twins most likely with Stewart coming back at some point and maybe Topa and Funderburk and Henriquez waiting in the wings. Probably best to try and see if a team most desperate for pen help would be willing to grab him and give him more chances at the MLB level.
  20. Dman
    We are not going to have a chance at the first two players. I had Mathis on my list as a second round pick. I can't see him lasting beyond that although it is a 1st base profile so maybe he goes third round. At any rate he has lot's of traits I like and that the Twins like so depending on who is left I could see the Twins taking him. Burke is interesting,. I have to believe he fits well with what the Twins seem to like in hitters. I don't love power over hit players, but if he can control the strike zone he looks like an awesome get in the second or third round. I know Jared Thomas is 1B\OF, but I love the athleticism he would bring to first base and he could also play in the outfield if needed. Probably gone before pick 60 and likely too early to grab at 33, but I would pick him over the other two if he was still there. He doesn't have the power of the other two guys mentioned in that range, but his hit tool is rated higher and he runs better than both of them. I also think he could tap into more power. FWIW I don't look much past the top 50 maybe top 100 when looking at these guys so don't know much about the other players mentioned.
  21. Dman
    His Slugging% is currently slightly higher than his 2021-2023 numbers at .445. That is a good slugging percentage, but not a great one. For a bat only guy it really should be in the 500 range or higher at these levels. He has work to do and making more contact (fewer K's) would go a long way toward helping him. His K rate is currently down from last year as well so he is working on it. Still like I said for a bat only player he needs to be elite and right now is just OK. Other than when he was in high A for 22 games this is the highest his OPS has been at any level (AA .837). Still a lot of season left for things to go either direction, but given his recent week of success have to believe his confidence is up. I hope this is the start of a major resurgence, but it could just be a little hot streak and then back to reality.
  22. Dman
    Yeah I agree. Those teams weren't afraid of the short term results which is why they offered the money to begin with. Once they got the medicals and talked to experts a 10 year deal looked like a bad bet. The Mets offered a modified deal so its not like they were totally out. Correa liked the Twins deal the best and here we are. Still a long ways to go for those teams to be jealous or second guess their decisions. We'll see how he looks five years out and beyond. Even then can't fault those teams for mitigating the known risk that was there.
  23. Dman
    With all the Walks I had Nowlin as a reliever. I guess the Zebby Matthews affect is real. Someone in the system always throwing a Zebby type game with no walks and just a few hits. If he can keep this up he is a starter. Before I am a believer I need to see him keep the walks down a few more games though. I was about to write Baez and his bat off and then he goes out and starts hitting home runs. Maybe this is just a hot streak and while his power looks real have to wait and see of he can keep making contact. Still nice to see him having some success with the bat. Sabato 3 for 4 with another home run. Three games in a row with a Home run. He looks dialed in at the plate right now. Maybe he has figured some things out? Hard to say, but it sure is fun to say nice things about the guy. Wallner another game another home run. He is starting to make me look foolish for doubting. Still want to see him do this against another team before I am on board though. A good night for wins except Fort Myers. Things are looking up for the affiliates.
  24. Dman
    Gotta say that 4 for 4 night from Wallner was impressive. Good at bats all night long for him. Still not sure I trust him at the MLB level but the pitcher was dealing and no one else on the team could get a hit so he must be doing something right. He keeps this up and he is gonna earn his way back. Bengard has been good all year. Have to believe they move him up once the first half is over. Granted there are a fair number of arms at high A right now, but his numbers scream I am too good for this level. I know Rixen WIngrove isn't a prospect per say, but I was wondering why they had him on the team with all the strikeouts and weak contact he was producing. The last few days I think I am seeing what the Twins saw, When he connects the ball is going a long way. Doesn't look particularly athletic, but he sure adds some needed juice that lineup. Great to see all four affiliates with wins and good performances. Hope they keep it up.
  25. Dman
    Seth would be the best one to answer this but A) it is not restricted to Dominican players as I believe there have been Venezuelan and Cuban players on those teams. B) If I understand correctly the main reason there are so many Dominican players is most teams have academies there where they train and watch players from a very young age and recruitment begins at age 14 I believe. C) It is open to anyone I believe but seems fairly unique in that most other players don't necessarily sign at 16 except the Dominican and Venezuelan players. Cuban and Asian players generally seem to be 18 or older, but Kepler signed from Germany at 16 as did some Ausies. Personally I wish they had an international draft and that they had wait until 18 to sign, but it is what it is right now.
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