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Dman

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Everything posted by Dman

  1. Dman
    I don't think either of us felt he was Jenkins, just not Cavaco. Technically if Winokur could match Jenkins contact skills at the plate I would argue he would be better than Jenkins as I feel he has better speed and more position flexibility. However, Guys that don't come in with good contact skills generally don't develop into great contact hitters so that would take something extraordinary happening, but one can still dream since he just turned 20. Right now I see him more of a power over hit type profile, but we'll see what he does this year. Feels a bit ;like a Willie Castro comp to me right now with a chance to have a better hit tool.
  2. Dman
    Agreed you did not say Winokur was a non prospect, but that is why I don't see it as a good comp because ultimately that is what Cavaco was. Rooker was 22 coming out of college and old for the class. It took him a long time to become dominant in the SEC. That was my point. Winokur was only 19 last year and won't be 22 for three more professional seasons. That's a lot of time to get better just like college players do. The failure rate for prospects is like 90 to 95 percent so the odds are decent betting on Winokur to fail, but it seems way, way to early to compare him to Cavaco. Winokurs K rate was 28% last year if was say 3 points lower at 25% would that change what you think? He wasn't that far off what is considered an OK number for a power hitter. If he walked a tick more and got to a 10% walk rate I'd say he has solid potential. I agree his hit tool is the weakest tool he has right now and without his hot streak hitting HR's last year his OPS would look worse, but again for year one I think he did really well considering he had so much to work on at the plate. IMO he has three years yet to get to where college drafted guys come in so we should give him more time to grow into his body before getting too critical.
  3. Dman
    I get where you are coming from with the K rate, but I think your comp is way off. That is also an incredibly pessimistic view given last year was Winokurs first full season in Pro ball and he did better than many college bats as a teenager. In Cavaco's entire career he never sniffed the .760 OPS that Winokur had in his first full year. We all know high K rates can be tough to overcome, but I can think of two players right now who I gave up on at the higher levels with high K rates in, Rooker and Wallner. Both players have managed high OPS's at the MLB level despite the K concerns. Putting Winokur in the Cavaco bucket after his first pro year is quite the bold statement and while the sample size is still relatively small I don't see much to back that claim up at this time and the odds of it happening seem very low to me. A better comp would be McCusker. They are both tall athletic players with good power and K rate issues that they may or may not overcome but McCusker is already at AAA and Winokur has lot's of time to refine his approach and end up in a better spot than McCusker. If it were me I'd wait at least another year if not two to pronounce Winokur a non prospect. The ghost of Rooker would say give him even more time than that.
  4. Dman
    It is an awesome rotation when you include Lewis in there. That makes 5 legitimate guys who could reasonably start at the MLB level. They also have Prielipp in the wings at AA as sixth guy granted he will be building up, but nice to have that kind of depth. Culpepper if he gets rolling makes for seven deep. Some of those arms seem destined for the pen as they can’t all start, but that is a good problem to have.
  5. Dman
    Kind of felt like last years Twins just good enough to lose. Completely handcuffed with RISP. It's gonna be a long season.
  6. Dman
    I was way down on him after taking three years at high A. Even last year it was hard to see it at times, but he did really well at AAA and he looked great this spring granted not against top competition. Will be interested to see how he does at AAA in a larger sample size. If the high contact rates continue gotta believe he finds his way to MLB. Still a long shot IMO.
  7. Dman
    I know it's spring and he is a veteran hitter, but France's numbers are making me question myself about who I thought he was. He's been in the starting lineup facing the tougher arms and doing well. Likely a spring mirage, but those numbers give me greater confidence he has turned things around. Hope springs eternal in spring training, but I like what I am seeing so far.
  8. Dman
    No real surprises for me. Been looking at the list since last year and now just need to wait a bit longer to see who performs this year and who flames out. I think Eeles could be in the top ten as his AAA line was as good as Lee's and Lee was a top 100 prospect. Eeles has all the good stuff you want in a hitter. Good contact rate, excellent plate discipline, good speed. The only thing he lacks is power but he has the man muscles to turn on a pitch when he wants to and push it out. I get that he was old for those earlier levels and he has a small sample size of at bats at all levels last year, so I get him being ranked in the 20's. Still I could see him being ranked higher as well as I think his potential puts him there.
  9. Dman
    I had lost track of Bischoff last year so nice to have a reminder of just how far he made it last year. Always nice to have some potential mid to elite bullpen arms in the system. It's a nice list of arms with most seeming like viable future options at the MLB level. Hoping for a good season from all them.
  10. Dman
    Cerda has looked good so far this spring, but as noted it's a SSS and the competition hasn't been super high. Still that HR was a bomb and the Twins have never seemed scared of players high K rates as long as they can lift enough balls out of the park. I'd say he landed with the perfect org for his skillset. He's going to have to gain better plate discipline to make it and hit off speed stuff, but I like what I have seen so far and if he can get himself on track he would be quite a find. 34% K rates are hard to overcome so he's a looong shot but a fun one.
  11. Dman
    I've never heard a team tell the other team their catcher was tipping pitches out loud. If it's a conspiracy there's a lot of independent people that have to keep their stories straight. The umpire, several different batters and then the coaches who heard what their players said. The evidence seems pretty overwhelming. It's one person's integrity (that appeared questionable to begin with) over several. Playing on a team is all about trust. It's working hard to help your team win and having your teammates backs. Lose that trust and it is almost impossible to get it back. Best to start with another org IMO. That being said it sounds like he has a lack of maturity and made one of those bad decisions that can follow you. He deserves a shot at redemption IMO as I am sure it is a mistake he won't make again and a lesson learned the hard way. Still I think owning up to it would have been the right thing to do. It will be interesting to see what comes out.
  12. Dman
    Neither lineup had their main guys in it, but was still happy to see the Twins hold them to 2 hits and zero runs. That's pretty dominant especially considering Morris and Lewis and Funderburk are likely all AAA arms. I am liking the pitching depth the Twins are developing. I know it is spring and I know small sample sizes and stats mean little in the spring, but Keirsey is off to a very good start. It's nice to see it whether it matters or not. It was a fun game to track. Nice just to have baseball back.
  13. Dman
    I f Louis can make a Jax like transition over time that would be awesome! Still It's very early and he didn't face elite bats yesterday. It's spring and hope is in the air. I hope that he has turned the corner as we could use more pen options this year.
  14. Dman
    Carpenter is an interesting Lefty they just drafted and Cesar Laras while not dominant might be a pen arm down the line.
  15. Dman
    Yeah I really liked that pick when they made it. I think it was the pick I liked the most in their entire draft last year. Still arms always carry a ton of risk so I get why they pick their spots. He kind of reminds a little bit of Festa only from the left side and obviously he is doing things at a younger age that most arms can't do. I think health is the biggest thing they need to focus on. He doesn't need to be rushed as it looks like he has the pitches he just needs to refine them. The Twins have done a nice job of stacking some young arms to go with those college arms they like to take late. Soto and Hill are 19. Carpenter and Bohorquez are 20 as is Questad. Those are 5 young arms to watch this year. Hill looks like he might be the best of them, but will have to wait and see. Stack these young arms with the older college arms and they could have another wave of arms ready fairly soon.
  16. Dman
    Gotta agree with @chpettit19 that Winokur likely has the highest potential ceiling of any of the names mentioned. If and I know it is a big if, his hit tool ends up plus he looks like the only 5 tool player on this list to me. He is so athletic he can handle short. It's crazy athleticism and he could be pure 60 tools all the way across the board if he can get his plate discipline and hit tool to that 60 level. Given the tools he has even a 50 hit tool would work well for him, but given that K rate and contact rate there is work to do. I really like what Eeles brings to any team he is on. If guys don't perform at the MLB level he might not give them their spot back. I think his approach will work at the MLB level but no reason to rush him. I also like Doncon. He has been young for the levels with good power and I thought he looked OK at short nothing special there and third is his likely home, but good power and solid approach make he think he could be special. I think AA gives him problems but he could be a stud 3rd baseman if the bat is good enough. Lot's of interesting bats in the list. Should be a fun system to watch this year.
  17. Dman
    I remember those 5 good starts in A ball as I was thinking he had turned the corner but I thought he struggled again at High A. I had kind of written him off as I wasn't aware of any plus pitches. He was the best of that class for the lower draft picks last year. I guess I failed to realize just how well he had done. Hopefully he follows that Matthews, Morris leap this year and we have another solid arm.
  18. Dman
    Looks like they signed him February 11th. Must have gotten more money in the Helman deal to push that through.
  19. Dman
    I was a pretty big believer in his approach and when he caught fire his first time up thought he was going to make it for sure. Pitchers have caught onto his approach though and are putting the ball in areas where he has trouble getting good contact with the ball. Way too many K's looking has been a killer as well. Sometimes it's best to foul close ones off rather than let the ump decide your fate. There is a lot to fix hopefully this is the year it all comes together. I think a lot of time make or break isn't really the correct term as young players still have time to turn things around, but in Jullien's case it really is make or break. As noted in the article with no options left after this year if he doesn't vastly improve there will be no room for him on the 40 man. He does have a good eye at the plate which had been his calling card all the way up to MLB, but there were always some holes in his swing all the way up too. If he can't fix that this year it seems unlikely he ever will. Also as noted he isn't the greatest 2nd baseman, but he is serviceable there and unless he taps into his power he isn't that great a choice for first base and again as noted there are younger players with as much or more potential that could squeeze him out. He needs to put things together this year and I think he will. We'll all know soon enough.
  20. Dman
    I am hopeful but given his extremely short track record and the jump to the Major league baseball and the control issues he has battled it's hard to say how this turns out. It looks like he has two plus pitches, fastball and changeup which is a nice combination, but will they play at the MLB level? I guess we'll find out. If he turns out to be something like Tyler Wells that would be awesome. Best case scenario he makes it through the year and the Twins add to their pitching depth. Worst case they send him back.
  21. Dman
    Yeah it wouldn't surprise me to see Paddack traded closer to the start of the season either. It still feels like the FO would like to bring their topline number down or maybe with new ownership they are comfortable right where they are. Hard to say, but if Festa and SWR both look good this spring I could see a bit more pressure to Trade Paddack. The Falvey MO though is to always bring in some vet on a lower deal as a backend guy and Paddack fits the mold so I also wouldn't be surprised to see them hang onto him and use Festa and Matthews as depth just like last year. They are going to need 7 or 8 arms to get through the season so they could stand pat as well. It's a coin toss for me at this point.
  22. Dman
    I didn't care for the pick. His swing and miss especially inside the zone isn't something that is easily fixable IMO. His ability to play 3rd seems unlikely as he is average to slightly less than average there right now and the Twins have players with better arms and likely better athleticism to put there. I don't see him beating out true third basemen, but there is time for him to improve there. I will say i like his short powerful, compact swing. When he does hit something he is going to hit it hard and as noted by the OP it was nice to see better plate discipline in his pro debut. Still this type of hitter generally takes a long time to bake in the Minors before the warts in contact rate make up for the high level of power contact when he barrels the ball. The Twins seemed tied to Amick with one of their first round picks and were mocked to take him in the 1st round in several mocks I believe. I can see where having him fall to them in the second round seemed just to good to pass up. I agree with the OP these types of bats are high risk, but if he hits close to his ceiling he is a Brent Rooker type bat. If he doesn't he is a Sabato type pick. We'll know more after we get to watch him for a year. I am rooting for the guy as it would be great to have another powerful right handed bat on the way up. Hopefully the warts I see are more fixable than they appear. The Twins like to take a power bat every year and Amick is a good prospect when it comes to power potential.
  23. Dman
    I think that 5th starter spot is SWR's to lose at this point. He pitched well last year until later in the season. It feels like he has the inside track and with only 1 option left to Festa's 3 I think they send Festa down to start the year. Festa has a small MLB sample size but you can make the argument that he is the better pitcher of the two as his K rate is better and his stuff appears better, but it still feels like he could use some refinement and I think it makes some sense to make sure he gets off to a good start at AAA where there isn't as much pressure. It feels like he could have a slightly better three pitch mix or add another pitch to keep hitters off balance. Also if you are playing the long game it wouldn't hurt to slow play him a little bit to try an keep an extra year of control. If Festa continues to pitch well and improve its just a matter of time before he cracks the top 5 IMO. Still baring a dominant spring he looks like the odd man out to start the season to me.
  24. Dman
    I really like what Morris did last year. I know Zebby was amazing with so few walks last year, but Morris went deeper into games. I know Morris gets knocked for the K rate, but I think this is a case where you also want to look at hits allowed as the story it helps tell is he got a lot of weak contact which led to outs and he got that weak contact early which allowed him to go longer in games. I know there is a fine line there as K's are king because the ball doesn't get put into play, but I think the fact hitters have trouble squaring him up means there might be too much emphasis placed there. If hitters aren't barreling his pitches and he is getting quick outs I think that makes him better than he looks on paper to some degree. We'll see how his season goes as AAA is pretty hard on pitchers. Improving the K rate would be nice, but I still think he has what it takes with a slightly lessor K rate. He had a great year and is an important piece for the future.
  25. Dman
    Many others have summed it up as floor move and I tend to agree. Maybe that's all that needs to be said. Technically France isn't signed just yet. He has to make the final 26 to get paid and if he does make it he's only being paid 1M. Still I find it hard to believe he could displace Miranda at 1st base. Miranda has better power and makes lot's of contact. Maybe it is a hedge on a platoon split with some DH mixed in for both if they believe France's bat is back to All Star level form? Hard to say, but I will say the risk is low with the possibility of cutting him or only paying him 1M. It's not a high ceiling move it's more of break glass in case of emergency move IMO.
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