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Dman

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Everything posted by Dman

  1. Dman
    I think it is only terrible news if he doesn't perform well there. Shuffield would have been OK if he kept hitting, but injuries and poor performance have kept him from the upper levels except emergencies. If Prato backed up his numbers from last year we all would be having a different conversation about him, but since he didn't things look pretty bad right now. Yake and Perez weren't even on the same level as the others as they never hit that well anywhere. They never had a year like Shuffield, Prato and now possibly like Eeles is having. Eeles bat slowed down a tick at High A mainly in the power department but the walk to K ratio improved there. He has really good contact skills although often times weak contact, but with his plate discipline he has a really good chance to hunt for good pitches to hit. His underlying numbers all look good to support that he can continue to do well moving forward but the sample size is still small right now. He also has better speed than any of the others mentioned. We'll have to wait and see how he does, but just like Brooks Lee or any other prospect if he puts up the numbers and is consistent he'll make the top 30.
  2. Dman
    I think the book is out on Louie. I think he needs another pitch or something. His mix just isn't playing anymore.
  3. Dman
    Was surprised they moved Eeles to AAA. While Ortega, Ross, and Schobel haven't been worthy of promotion Rucker seemed like someone who might deserve to head to AAA. Also if it is short term why not use Schuffield there. He has been there before? I assume this is a pseudo tryout for Eeles at a higher level to see how he does? He handled high A pretty well showing his plate discipline and Contact rate with 11 walks and only 3 K's. So they must feel like he can handle this level. If he does well enough to stay there then he looks like a top 30 prospect to me. It will be interesting to see just how well he does there.
  4. Dman
    The Twins won't want to take on the salary and he signed for 10M or so next year which is why the Twins didn't sign him this year. They only wanted him on a one year deal. They were hoping Varland or SWR would be ready for that 5th starter spot and SWR seems to have taken it. They will find cheaper options for the pen. Also his fastball velo is down which is making his breaking balls less affective as hitters can wait back on the off-speed and breakers and still not be late on the fastball. I think he might be cooked. Tigers should give him some time off and maybe he comes back stronger. If not it looks like they got him when he fell off the table.
  5. Dman
    I really wanted the Twins to keep Maeda as the 5th starter and was bummed when Detroit got him. I really thought a bounce back was coming for him, but he has only regressed. He got dinked and dunked some today with hard hits in between and a Jeffers homer that barely cleared the shortest path out. Still he looks far from from dominant. SWR turned out to be a much better replacement production and salary wise for the Twins. Miranda and Correa both hitting .300. Who would have thought that after last years numbers. Some real good at bats today and nice to see something good happen with the bases loaded. As others have said just keep winning series and we'll be OK.
  6. Dman
    Surprised he decided to go to Korea, but maybe it is best for all concerned. He hasn't gotten any better this year and other arms are moving past him all the time. Maybe they can help him over there. If he can find an out pitch and gain some confidence I think he can make it back to the states. He is talented but just hasn't been able to put it all together.
  7. Dman
    Congrats to Lee and well deserved. I hope he hits the ground running! I thought the 40 man was full so does this mean Kirilloff is getting moved to the 60 day IL? Or who is coming off to add Lee?
  8. Dman
    I thought maybe Colorado would be interested as Dobber generally keeps the ball on the ground and has been durable after the finger issues were resolved and they are starved for pitching. The A's would be a really good team with the big park there and he doesn't cost much. For the Twins it is K rate and walk rate holding him back, but as you mentioned the K rate has been good at AAA this year and that is no small feat given the tight Zone there. I also don't think Dobnak is reliable enough compared to other options. Boushley's issues are similar with a lower K rate but I like him better as he gives up fewer walks and hits. Festa's K rate is MLB ready and he throws harder than both of those guys and with Zebby and Morris not that far away it feels like Randy's time has passed with the Twins. The other factor is for the price Randy is nice rotation depth to have in your back pocket and what return would the Twins get that would be better than the value he provides right now? Add it all up and unless a team wants to overpay for him I think he is stuck where he is. Maybe if he keeps this up the rest of the year another team would be interested in trading for him. He just hasn't been that good in the K department until this year and the walk rate is red flag not good.
  9. Dman
    Still feels like Severino was cheated there. I would take that .400 BA and higher OPS over the extra HR's, but that's just me. Still an Amazing month for Wallner and you can see why teams are calling about him. His power is elite and he can play right field which is a pretty nice combo. I bet the A's would love to have Wallner and Rooker back to back in their lineup. Still Severino is the man IMO. I like the consistent hitting (.425 BA) as it get's into the pitchers head. Severino has power as I believe he led the minors in HR's last year, but I'll take more contact and fewer homers if it leads to a 1.200 OPS. Not making outs is the name of the game and I feel like Severino did a better job of that. Scoring runs (28 RBI's) is what wins games and Wallner and the 12 HR's did better there this time around. So depending on how you see value it could go either way.. They both had impressive months and if they keep this up they will get their shots at MLB.
  10. Dman
    Those are some pretty impressive numbers for all four of those players for the month of June. I knew Correa's bat was good and that he had hot months, but his line for June is beyond what I thought he could do in any month given what I had seen the last two years. It has been so important to have his productive bat in the lineup. With Buxton heating up and Jeffers and Kepler who have also had good months at the plate this lineup suddenly feels very deep.
  11. Dman
    Lee really worked the count and finally got that home run. It's just another thing to show he is ready. While all HR's count, ambushing the pitcher on the first pitch just feels a little cheaper than other HR's to me. When you are down to your last strike like Lee was and still get one. That is the definition of being fearless in the count. After last year I just didn't see this much power coming for Lee, but with that power he is making it harder and harder for the Twins to keep him at AAA. As others have noted, Morris was impressive again. He gave up some walks but when only giving up 3 hits in over 6 innings you can afford to walk a few guys. Just one short of double digit K's as well. He has got to be happy with his season so far.
  12. Dman
    Sad to see Kemp go. He was always animated and fun to watch. I get it though. He wasn't gonna get a shot with Minnesota. Still his attitude was great and he was generally a tough out at the plate. I wish him the best going forward.
  13. Dman
    Would have loved to see a prep bat in Gillen or Caldwell at 21, but consensus probably has them too high. Still hard not to like WaldSchmidt there with his low chase and high contact rate. I think that's a nice pick at 21. With those skills he is likely a fast mover to boot. I think the Braves already have an under slot deal with Doughty at 24, but could just be a rumor. I think it depends on what is available at 33 for them to go prep arm,. There could be some very interesting college bats that fall to 33. I could see them trying to buy down a prep arm to pick 60 or just waiting for what's left at pick 60. If the college bats that fit their profile are still there at 33. Payne is a nice upside pick at 60. Lot's of room to grow at just 17. If you believe in the hit tool that could be a great pick. Although older I like Dante Nori in that range as well. His bat comes with a plus rating. If they miss out on Caldwell, Nori seems like the next best thing to me. Similar skill set in an older player. After that it is anyone's guess as to who they go with. Will be interesting to see how close you get on draft day. Thanks for putting this together!
  14. Dman
    I am always a little down on Adams and viewed him more as reliever. He has looked pretty darn good the last two times out as a starter. Seems to be a Zebby affect everywhere he goes. At any rate great game for Adams. Very well pitched. Also nice to see Varland bounce back after his horrible outing last time out.
  15. Dman
    I don't disagree. The bat even with the great year he is having I have heard has holes. The Twins have a lot of bat first catchers in the minors, but none of them other than currently Morales has done much with the bat past AA ( Camargo I guess). We'll see if Olivar can change that or Maybe Cardenas figures AA out next year. Still most of the bat first catchers they have, have glaring enough defensive concerns (with the exception of Cardenas) that they likely wouldn't make the jump to MLB as a catcher. I agree though unless it is an all around skill set I wouldn't go catcher in the 1st round. I am with you on Mayfield mainly because he is a lefty, but I still think I like the bats that are there better. Brecht is a genius pick if he turns out even close to Skenes, but if he doesn't you might get nothing. How do you feel about the Cavaco pick right now? That is the risk you take with Brecht. I don't know if you remember the LaMonte Wade for Anderson pick? The Twins were gonna fix his inability to throw strikes and they ended up bumping him off the 40 man. I still don't think he can throw enough strikes to this day. Not saying Brecht is the same but wild is hard to fix and or if the wild is fixed they become too hittable. He is young just started pitching he could get better, but the odds are against him. Too risky for me despite the extremely high upside.
  16. Dman
    I still think it's the high school guys for me. Gillen would be number one for me at 21. It is the highest rated hit tool and it comes with power. If he can play center he has up the middle value as well. Caldwell would be right behind him for me. The difference making speed, plus defense in center and plus bat make him super tough to pass up. I do really like Janek and the Twins don't have much in the system for elite defenders there. Janek's bat is rated average but looks plus based on this years stats to me. He has power and the best arm. If the hit tool is for real that would be a really, really good pick IMO. If they went with Janek I wouldn't be that upset, but I do like the high school guys the best. In honorable mention I really like Sanford. A plus defensive shortstop whose hit tool seems to be on the rise. It is the shades of Miller that give me pause, but I do like players with elite defense. Saved runs matter too. I believe his contact rates are good, but it is concerns with the hit tool dropping him to the comp A round or below right now. Lot's of different college bats they could take at 21 and possibly 33 as guys fall down the board. No matter who they pick I just hope they work out really well. No busts please.
  17. Dman
    Thanks for this article was wondering if it was just the Twins or other teams as well, as I don't remember them getting getting plunked this much. I assume it will slow down and I always about injury with those especially at catcher as they get bruised up enough as it is.
  18. Dman
    A pretty typical Festa outing minus the K's. Almost unhittable to start and then the next times through the order lot's of trouble. I didn't care for the pitch sequencing at all. Granted I am no expert but watching him when effective at AAA he was down and in or away and up and in at the top of the zone. When he stays to the edges and gets strikes he can tempt them by going out of the zone for swing and miss. The Home Run was a change up right down the middle and they had him with two strikes. His change up anywhere near the middle is the last thing he should throw there. The slider at the bottom of the zone would have been better. To their credit Arizona got hits on him off some pretty well placed pitches but they went middle way, way too much. His stuff doesn't play there. It plays at the bottom or top. I guess they were probably going for weak contact and quick outs but it turned into 4 runs. Still just nice to see him out there. He has the stuff to be effective I think it just needs to be placed better. As lot's of others noted early on in the season he needs better command and control to make the next jump.
  19. Dman
    I think he got hit by another pitch last night. They might want to give him an extra day to stretch it out?
  20. Dman
    I think most all of us have been waiting for this moment since 2022 and his 12/K9 with velo jump. He can miss bats, but also give up hard contact. I am hoping for a good first outing for him. We will know more about how "ready" he is after today. I have really enjoyed watching him move up and dominate most of the way. He is going to be a good one.
  21. Dman
    One more callout for me. I had given up on Will Holland and thought the Twins should have let him go at the end of last year. He never had an OPS much over .700 his entire minor league career and had another tough year last year. This year has been a different story. He hasn't played a ton of games so the sample isn't overly large but it is big enough now to think whatever changes he has made are going to work. His line is .298/.430/.983 through 40 games and 114 at bats. There is a lot of season left for those numbers to change, but given just how bad a hitter he has been he's never had any season even approach those numbers. His highest batting average until this year was .227 and highest OPS .737. His walk rate was OK in those bad years but his K rate was always in the 30 percent range. Maybe this is just the AAA affect where the zone is tighter and those that tend to expand the zone don't have to worry about plate coverage as much because of ABS or maybe he is finally maturing as a hitter. hard to say just yet, but it nice to see that level of improvement to this point and nice to able to say something positive about Holland for once. I hope he keeps this up and if he does he would be a nice 4th outfielder\infielder to have waiting in the wings.
  22. Dman
    I hate to admit it but last year while the numbers weren't bad I was a little worried about Lee especially in respect to his ability to generate power. While I didn't think he needed to hit a HR every other day to prove he has power, it has been a welcome sign to see him hitting HR's instead of just doubles this year. I also questioned his ability to hit from the right side and especially for power and again Lee is making me look like an idiot for doubting him. While I am in idiot mode. Yesterday I questioned Keaschal's hitting at AA. Said he looked scared at the plate or something like that and then he goes out and has a two hit day with a HR. I will say in my critique yesterday I said he should swing at the juicy first pitch strikes they have been throwing him and on his HR run ball I believe he swung at the first pitch and put it over the fence. AA is a tough level but he is still doing well there. It is just with all the bats that go there to die I was getting a little worried. Morris and Zebby with almost identical ERA's but Zebby's underlying numbers are much better. Still with Morris pitching this well he is on track to be at least another 5th starter type. Sure is nice to see dominant arms this high up in the system.
  23. Dman
    It is so odd because he couldn't hit anything to start the season. I know some of these warm weather guys seem to get off to slow starts in the cold northern climates so maybe he was just less comfortable in the cold? Or maybe there was just an approach change? He seemed to be swinging for the fences earlier in the year and now seems more happy to just make contact and take a single as long as he makes contact. I don't know what changed, but with the K rate down, walk rate up and contact up his line is amazing right now. Still as you noted I think he is playing for next year right now as there is no room on the 26 man for him. He probably needs to hold this level of play longer anyway given the rough start, but if this is the real Severino they will find a spot.
  24. Dman
    Totally agree but they are all rated about the same from 14 to 24 or so. from there players with slightly fewer tools but still good bats.
  25. Dman
    Honestly he hasn't pitched that well this year IMO. For a guy with plus pitches he walks too many and gives up too many runs. He's had to throw a lot of pitches some innings so his pitch counts get high early. He's got things he needs to work on and control is certainly one of them. His K rate is really good for the level 27% with almost an 11/K9. That's hard to do at that level, but there are things that need to be figured out for him to get to more elite status. If it were me I'd keep him around 60 pitches until he starts dominating more. There's no rush as he is still very young for the level. If he can stop the long innings of 20 or more pitches then sure leave him out there longer. I trust the Twins have a plan and understand his recovery process etc and will add more innings when it makes sense.
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