Dman

I'd really like to see the Twins take an outfielder with pick 21. The system and the MLB club seem weak on outfield depth. The infield seems set with Lewis, Correa and likely Lee with others filling in at 1st base and loads of options for second base. So ideally I would like to go with a HS player at 21 but it looks like the only player available that high might be Caldwell. I know you can't trust mocks but he seems to be falling down boards to the comp round Although he is mentioned as being loved by every team so who knows. If he is there I still think that would be my pick. I really like the hit tools of Benge and Waldschmidt and they are getting a lot of love in the teen picks right now. They should be fast moving bats and Benge would be nice because he can play right field.. I really like both and would be happy with either one at 21. Honeycutt is getting a lot of juice in the top 20 and I have come around some on him. He has All Star tools no doubt, but the K rate and contact rate really scare me. If his hit tool is even just below average he will be a monster at the MLB level, but with the pitching there can he even get to just below average? Look at a lot of the younger players that make good contact and the issues they have at the MLB level and it seems like Honeycutt would have no chance. I am not a scout I don't have advanced reports on his swing and what can maybe be fixed, but I just hate power over hit guys because it is generally a lot of pain\missed opportunity for small amount of joy when they hit their HR's. Still if he fixes the hit tool the guy will be an All Star so someone will take a chance. The more I get into this the more conflicted I get about who they should take, but I like the idea of an outfielder better than infield as the infield seems set for the next 4 to 5 years IMO. The outfield is in flux. Also I heard\read a rumor that the Twins might be working an under slot deal with Sandford. Anyone else hear about that? He has been mocked to the Twins at 33 quite a bit, but not sure if a deal at 21 makes sense or not. It would be an up the middle player who has great defense and a solid bat, so that works for me. I just wonder what they would do with the extra money to make that move worth it.

I didn't watch all of Lee's appearances in the batters box, but he looked really good last night. He wasn't expanding the zone and made the pitcher work. His defensive play on that bunt was a thing of beauty. The barehanded toss just beat the runner. Absolute big league play. The call from the announcer on his home run was one of the worst. The guy called it a pop fly then had to back track and say it was carrying a long way and then finally admit it was a home run. Looking at Lee in the box you could tell he thought it was out the moment he hit it. I don't know what it is but Keaschall looks like a head case at AA right now. I don't know if he is working on longer counts or if the quality of pitching is so good he just isn't sure what is coming, but he was taking strikes right down the middle of the plate a lot. The other team seemed to know he wasn't going to swing at strike one because they kept pounding it there on the first pitch. In one appearance he struck out in three pitches all down the middle. He does generally make contact but he didn't look that good last night to me. St Paul with another win as the pen held down the stretch and the bats scored just enough runs with Lee's HR the game winner. They are fun to watch right now.

I get the Royals kind of needing to go all in to grab a playoff spot as they haven't been in this spot in a long time. Bullpen additions shouldn't have to cost them too much unless they go super high end. They don't have a great farm system so I can't see them going high end. I think they'll run the numbers and go the value route in the end. I don't feel like the Twins should add to the pen or position players. Yeah I get that there are upgrades to be made but for me the cost versus what those upgrades get you isn't worth it. The only deadline deal I would be interested in would be an ace type starter. Something that could push them a bump higher for the playoffs. If that can't be done I would just stand pat. The pen can beefed up with starters for the playoffs. They have young bats that can step in if role players aren't getting it done. I don't think high cost trades to get marginally better are worth it for this team, but we'll see how things look around the deadline.

Great writeup! I have been really impressed with what Eeles has been able to do so far. I really like his hitting profile. Walk to K rate is almost even. He has good bat to ball skills and makes hard contact and a fair bit of weak contact because he can get the bat to the ball on almost anything. He is fast and can steal bases but has been picked off a fair bit so something to work on there. So far he has performed better than a fair number of drafted players. I don't want to get my hopes up too much as I felt this way about Shuffield as well. The true test of his prospect status will be AA. If he performs well there the Twins might have found a real diamond in the rough as he has all the tools to be a really, really good hitter. He just needs to prove he can do it at the higher levels.

With all the hitters back and a deeper lineup the Saints lineup has been on fire. The pitching has been solid as well which gave them that 11 game streak to get back over .500. Really nice to see so many players playing well, but AAA is a goofy league because of callups teams can be good for awhile and then fall off as talent gets taken away. It also makes player results a mixed bag as well because the competition level changes so much. At any rate nice to see the team clicking. The Wichita rotation has some of the best arms in the system on it and while there record shows them as last place team they beat the top team in the league 4 games to 2 last week so this is a different team. The lineup is still struggling with Ortega, Ross, Cardeness, Cossetti, Schobel all struggling, but the pitching has kept them in games and they have been able to do just enough. Hopefully the bats come around and they go on a long winning streak to get back above 500 like the saints. Feels like things are trending up for all the main affiliates. Hopefully they can keep it going.

I did like the hot and cold from last year. It is a game of trends so nice see what those trends are both ways IMO. Still gonna read it one way or another though.

Really nice article Jamie, Thanks! He was primarily a reliever in 2022 when K numbers were outstanding and I have been following him pretty close since then. They had him start the next year and things were more up and down and the K rate went down. From the beginning though it has been the walks that have been the issue. He just couldn't seem to hit the zone when he absolutely needed to. I have had him pegged as a reliever due to the high walk rate but his June 16th performance was a game changer. He had control in that game with zero walks and his pitches worked for K's and outs. It proved his stuff plays if he can just control it. I was hoping to see something similar the next time out, but he walked 5 in slightly less than 5 innings his next time out. I still think he is close to really breaking out, but he needs to perform like June 16th to get there. In a nut shell he simply needs to consistently have control and command of his pitches and he should get his chance at MLB as a starter or reliever as I believe he has the stuff\pitches to get there if he can harness it.

To get back to your draft I have been hearing Wetherholt to the Guardians as well which would be a genius move IMO. They could probably shave 2M off that pick and buy somebody down the board. Wetherholt seems destined for pick 5 or below so should cut a nice deal and his bat isn't that far off from Bazana. I wouldn't be surprised if it was a prep pitcher but given Cleveland's difficult time finding bats I wouldn't be surprised if they pulled a big bat down the board either. Maybe Gillen or Caldwell? College bat then HS bat would be a nice way to round it out with maybe some money left over for prep pitcher in the 2nd round as they draft again at 48. OK after a quick check of their farm they have more top 30 bats than arms. System looks a bit depleted on arms. so likely arm in comp A and second round. Man Cleveland is going to be a good team for a very long time. FWIW I would hate to see Cleveland land Sloan. He is my favorite type of pitcher. 6'5" plus fastball, plus changeup, possible plus slider. Cleveland loves arms with good changeups. You could be spot on with this pick if they go Wetherholt. He might be their future ace for years to come.

Barring injury I don't see the Twins adding Lee until after the trade deadline when they can try and trade players to make more room and worry less about injuries down the stretch. It also gives them a longer sample size to see how well the bat plays at AAA. I've seen some pretty bad plate appearances. He is chasing outside the zone and could be more patient instead of swinging at a pitcher's pitch. Lot's of weak contact at times. He can put the bat to almost anything but like Miranda he needs to hunt good pitches to hit. His current line is 0utstanding but let's make sure he sustains this before dropping him in the deep end.

I've seen him at 3rd and he looked, really, really good there from what I saw. He has a plus arm so he could play third. They probably have him going to second because with his power and ability to play there he would have more value there. I am with you to a degree on Miller. I too think the Dodgers generally win their trades outside of deadline deals. They obviously think they can fix Miller and who doesn't love elite defensive shortstops? However, if MIller doesn't hit better he is almost unplayable and so far this year he has yet another OPS in the .600 range and this will be his 3rd year at high A. Granted he is young for the level, but generally guys that are gonna hit show signs of improvement if not start to dominate their leagues after a year or so. He hasn't done that yet and the Dodgers haven't fixed him yet. He has time and maybe that is their hope that as he matures the hit tool comes around. But right now today things don't look good. could change tomorrow though. However, I really do like Doncon. The bat to ball is there and the power is on the way. He has some great skills at the plate and looks solid in the field just likely not long term at short. Hard to say how this one turns out. Way too early to tell.

I agree. For me it depends on what is available at 33 to go arm. I know it is subjective but MLB.com only has about 40 players with above average hit tools. So finding another elite bat outside pick 33 could be tough. Granted bats they have rated at 50 the Twins might see as plus and I don't have a ton of resources to use for my opinions. Long story long I guess I am saying unless there is an arm I really love still there at 33 I think I still go bat there, because there might not be any worth picking at 60 and 69. Bats have to be really, really good to make it and zone awareness and contact skills, you seem to have it or you don't. Arms seems to have a greater variability for the development path and you can take more of them because most bats don't work out after round 2. Still I could see the Twins balance the picks going bat, arm, bat arm. Like you I just don't see them going arm first. Who knows what they want to do and what info they have to tip the scales to pitcher first, but there are going to be good bats at 21.

Yep as I said earlier at 21 they get their pick of the highly rated high school arms. If they grab one there I just hope it works out well. Not that it probably matters but if they do go high school pitcher there they are going to have to deal with comparison's to Petty who they traded to get Gray. Might be easier to just take bats at 21 and 33 to avoid any scrutiny if Petty turns out well and the pick doesn't.

I'd say the odds are low but until he is unplayable there I am giving him a chance.

I think we all agree that the Twins have done well developing pitching in the system the larger question is where to take it (i,e. risk factor). I don't think pick 21 is the place and maybe not even pick 33. In 2017 they took two high school arms fairly high in Leach (2) and Enlow (3) who turned out in that draft? Yep at pick 12 Bailey Ober. 2018 they only took bats high. 2019 they took Canterino in the 2nd round and so far he hasn't done anything. Who has? Sawyer Gipson Long at number 6. Brent Headrick number 9. Louie Varland number 13. 2020 they took no pitcher's high but did grab Raya in the 4th round which looks like a good pick but have to wait and see yet. 2021 Chase Petty 1st round. I liked the pick and he was enough to get us Gray and a comp pick but he is struggling at the AA level right now. Still plenty of time to change that as he is young for the level, but since traded he won't be developed in MN. 2nd round pick Hajjar who is also struggling as a reliever and on the might not make it train. Who worked out? Number 13 David Festa and he is the only one on a top 100 list. 2022 Connor Prielipp an arm I believed in has barely pitched and with a second TJ the arm just might not hold up. Whose working their way through the levels. Matthews who also is on a top 100 list was picked in the 8th round. Lewis the 9th. Culpepper the 13th. Morris the 4th round. Who has worked out bat wise? Lewis at number 1 and you could say Rooker at Comp A though he was traded away. Larnach in the 1st round, Jeffers in the second round in 2018. In 2019 Cavaco is a first round bust and Comp A Wallner is a question mark but has made it to the Majors. 2020 Sabato 1st round unlikely to work out but still there. 2021 Miller Comp A who is only 21 and an elite defender with questionable bat traded away. 2022 Brooks Lee 1st round, Tanner Schobel round 2. 2023 Walker Jenkins 1st round and Keaschall in the second round. The thing is for the bats that the Twins have taken they have no one outside the first two rounds that made it other than 3rd round Steer and 4th round CES which is still pretty high compared to where they have gotten arms to work. Oh and unicorn Jullien who fell on draft day and the Twins found third or fourth round money to sign him. Still when you get out of those top rounds the bats just generally aren't good enough. Yet as you can see the Twins seem to have found one or more arms outside the top two rounds virtually every year. And those later picks seem to be outperforming the earlier pitcher picks anyway. So given the trends I don't think going pitcher early gives you the best odds of maximizing your draft class and balancing your system needs. At least not from what I am seeing from 2017 on. High school pitcher is the greatest risk\reward in the draft and the low success rates means you need to choose your spots carefully IMO. With the Twins success with arms later in the draft I would stick to bats early.

Yeah I have my eye on Doncon and Miller to some degree since that seemed to the real trade IMO. Watching on MiLB.tv yesterday I really felt like his approach was advanced for a 20 year old. He wasn't swinging wildly at pitches outside the zone and he has good contact skills. He has struggled more at High A than low A especially getting to his power as his OPS was in the .600 range until this week with a couple of triples and doubles which has his OPS around .750 which in a smaller sample size is better than Miller's right now. From what I have seen he looks good at Shortstop. Not Miller good, but solid. He is a pretty big guy though so it will be interesting to see how filling out affects his body. He has good power already and there is likely more to come. I am enjoying watching him and he has potential to be a very good to great player IMO.

If I'm the Mets and I like those traits why not Honeycutt who has a slightly worse hit tool, equal power, and elite centerfield defense. I don't see it, but hey you never know. If you don't believe in Honeycutt's bat then that would be a close comp. With my favorites Benge and Waldschmidt already gone my next picks would be high school bats Gillen and Caldwell. Gillen has the contact rates and power the Twins love and he even has something they generally ignore which is speed. Caldwell doesn't have the power the Twins usually crave but I hear his makeup is off the charts which the Twins love. Grabbing players with up the middle potential makes the most sense to me. It seems like some boards I am seeing have Sloan and Mayfield ahead of Schmidt right now so am curious why you chose him at 21. I heard Sloan was hitting 100 on the gun. Mayfield seems more about being a lefty, but he is a good one. I just don't see the Twins pulling the trigger on an arm at 21, but they could have their pick of the best high school arms in that spot if they choose to take on that kind of risk. So I get where you are coming from. Culpepper is decent value taken at 33, but why go with a potential fast moving college bat there with mainly average tools and below average power with Gillen and Lewis there? We have a ton of guys like Culpepper in the system and you might find something similar into the second round. With the lack of power (although bat speed is good) Culpepper doesn't seem like a Twins pick IMO. Gillen has a plus hit tool, plus power and plus speed and could play center. Lewis Has better speed and possibly better power and can likely stick at short. I'd rather have your second picks for that spot than your first one. The Twins infield is full at the major league level they can afford to wait for HS talent to bubble up. I will say from what I am reading Caldwell seems to be falling into the comp round, but with the O's and Arizona having multiple picks I could see them popping him just before pick 33. Gillen seems to be as high as the Mariner's pick to the low 20's. I don't think he makes the comp round. I just don't trust HS arms. Enlow had that plus, plus curve and it never worked out. Granted he didn't have a 98mph fastball either. Stewart threw really hard, but didn't work out. There's a reason lot's of teams don't like to go HS pitcher early in the draft. A lot of the times those arms just break down and you get nothing. Also when you look at the Twins system they are in need of elite bats. The starting pitching across the levels has been pretty outstanding for the most part with low A being a bit more variable. The Twins also have been good at identifying good arms later in the draft but almost no bats past the second round make it. I'd go bat's early unless they aren't viewed as difference making. Gotta believe at 21 there will be something good there. I would also like to see them go with HS players with the exception of Waldschmidt or Benge who could be fast moving outfielders as we seem a bit light on outfield talent right now at the upper levels.

I am shocked at how well he has done against breaking and off-speed pitches. That truly leaves the pitcher with no real advantageous way to attack him. I will say I have been impressed with what he has done on many levels. It's just that he is injured so often you don't get to see it for long. That would be my only complaint to this point. He looks like one of those very elusive star players that every team tries to find. Just hoping he can stay healthy.

I had the Travelers winning with Adams on the mound. He is usually good for two to three innings before he implodes, but today he pitched well for 5 innings. Wichita has the best rotation of all the affiliates if you ask me and the Travelers Had a two or three game lead for the fist half championship on the line with last place Wichita lined up. They had to feel they had things locked up, but it looks like after losing the series to us they are .5 back of St, Louis. For a minute there I thought they might complete the comeback but Laweryson came in and saved the day. I can see why St. Loucie is in last place. They are playing mostly all young players there which should work out well down the line. On the other hand Ft. Myers is depleted of talent and has brought in quite a few older free agent players and you could see the difference that made in the game. I don't know. Varland and the Home run issues makes me want him to be a pen arm. His stuff isn't working as a starter. He threw more strikes yesterday, but was hit extremely hard. I think resting his arm and a mental break could make some sense. he just wasn't himself in that game. Rozak finally earns his promotion and gets beat up on. Hopefully things go better for him next time out. He was sooo good at AA gotta believe he can tackle AAA. I still think he can be an MLB reliever, but he has to tackle AAA first. Julien with a typical Julien day multiple hits and multiple walks. I hope he keeps this up as he hasn't looked that great at AAA to me when I have watched him. Still work to do there IMO, but yesterday he looked like the hitter I remember.

I agree with you. Not only does he have a three pitch mix, but his pitches have improved dramatically since when he was a starter. It is hard to say just how effective his mix would be as a starter as I have seen him get out of innings throwing 8 pitches and sometimes he has tough at bats where he throws 8 or more pitches to one batter. Also I have never seen a pitcher get burned by weak contact as much as Jax. Stuff that doesn't even make it out of the infield fall for hits because it takes too long to get to a fielder. So bottom line I think there is a fair amount of risk moving a closer type bullpen arm to a starter where we don't know if he will be much better than a 5th starter type but could be a mid rotation arm. He also might be at an increased risk of injury throwing as hard as he does for 90 to 100 pitches per game. If the Twins were starved for starters I could see it as a likely move, but they have options now and it looks like into the future. If it were me I would just leave him where he has been and will continue to be successful, but I don't think the idea is far fetched at all.

It's nice to see him having some success, but he still seems like pretty much the same hitter with certain problem areas in his swing. While the K rate has come down a little it's not enough yet. I don't see him as a Rule V add with all the warts in the underlying numbers and his limited value as a 1st base\DH bat. The only Rule V players I have for next year are Festa and Raya as for sure adds and outside chance of Olivar and Kiersey. Although bats are hard to predict as they don't get taken that often. Also Lee looks like an early add. Everyone else would need to show a lot more in the second half to get added IMO. Sabato would not be on my list as I like Severino better in the 1st base DH spot as he is a switch hitter, runs better and has better contact skills. They can't have two of those types taking up 40 man space so if Sabato takes off they would need to trade one of them and my pick would be Sabato.

His best outing was April 13th. 4IP no hits, no runs, 1 walk and 7K's. That outing got me pretty excited about him. His issue seems to be control which makes sense for such a young arm. Nice to him have a good game and it looked like the change up was working for him again in this one. Gotta love an 18 year old at A ball with an 11.13 K/9. I am sure the Twins don't care about the ERA and more about developing pitches, but nice to see him with a good game. When he keeps the walks and hits down we'll know he is on his way up. Only two hits today but 3 walk in 4 innings is too many. His changeup has to be plus if not plus plus. He has good velocity with the fastball. It looks like he needs to work on controlling the slider and I think he is going to be very, very good. Maybe they work on a cutter as well as that seemed to help Matthews this year. At any rate this is likely a learning year and he is still doing very well.

Boushley with the Zebby today. No walks, 3 hits, no runs. With his pitch count he was in line to go all 9 but a long bottom on the 7th got him pulled. The announcers said likely since he is on the 40 man they wouldn't want to take any chances with his arm. Having already gone 7 it seemed like the pen could mail it in, but Brice couldn't find the strike zone and Wallner lost fly ball in left and things turned in a hurry. Boushley with really nice numbers at AAA this year so I can see why they put him on the 40 man, but a 90mph fastball makes it tough to see him as anything but an emergency arm. Still nice to have arms stashed away as you never know when you might need them and he has been consistently good this year. Severino goes 4 for 5 and while he had a miserable 2 months at the plate he has his numbers back to an .800 OPS on the year. It has taken a June line of .462 BA, .600 OBP and .788 SLG to get there for a 1.388 OPS, but that is just how hot he has been at the plate in June. His walk rate is at 15% for the year and the K rate still at 30%, but hopefully that will come down some. Will have to wait and see. Still it looks like Severino's bat is back. Hopefully for the rest of the season. Also Kudos to Jenkins on his Home Run. Nice to see the power is still there. Hopefully this kick starts the bat for him as well.

Man you know things are going good in the system when a 5 inning 1 hit, 1 walk, 6k night doesn't get you pitcher of the day. Bengard out Zebby'ed, Matthews with 6 innings of just 2 hits, no walks and 7 K's. Someone always throwing a no walk Zebby game almost every night these days. Would love to see Bengard with the Kernel's, but pitching seems in short supply at low A so maybe he will need to stay for a while. A couple of call outs. The Twins missed out on Matain in the Atlanta debacle and got Severino instead who is currently on the 40 man. Now they have both in the system. Matain has been an important bat for the Kernal's and while the underlying numbers aren't kind (High BABIP, 30% K rate, low walk rate) for a team in need of hitting he has been producing. Happy to see him having some success. Hoping he keeps it going and can make a move to AA. Rixon Wingrove is a big man and this is just my opinion and not meant to be mean but he doesn't really look like a baseball player to me. And yet he is killing it at low A right now. A .292BA, .403 OBP, .523 SLG for a .926 OPS in a league where the average OPS is in the 700's. His walk rate is 12% and K rate 22%. He just turned 24 in May so a little old for the level, but that is a really nice line for the big fella. They probably should move him up and yet Fort Myers needs all the hitters they can get especially after losing Eeles, but hopefully in time he will get his chance at High A to see if he can handle that level.

Festa is a really good pitcher as well and his K9 is better than Matthews and is elite. Honestly I think they are pretty close, but Matthews has been better in the control department and that is a make or break skill at the MLB level. Zebby should be ranked higher than Festa at this point and honestly most likely in line to be the next arm called up. While he only has 35 IP at AA, as others have noted he should be moved to AAA to see if he can help the MLB club down the road this season. You look at his AA numbers and there is nothing more he needs to prove there. Walk rate is extremely low. K rate 10 per 9. Home run suppression is great. Fastball is up to 98. FIP and xFIP agree with ERA. He has the skills in place to make the move to AAA and if he maintains his numbers there then MLB is the next step. Worst case scenario, even if he slows down at AAA it isn't going to hurt to see if he can make it there. He is mature enough as a person and pitcher for a quick move to AAA IMO. I hope they keep him moving.

He is off the 40 man, but will likely make it to St. Paul as I believed they guaranteed his salary. Other teams could claim him, but given his results this year and the cost it would be highly unlikely.