Dman

Alright then let the signing's begin and let's see who we really got.

I assume this is the same Merit Jones they tried to to sign in 2024 and should sign in 2025? Not sure what the attraction is here as the WHiP has always been way too high and his K rate was worse this year than last. Must see something they can fix?

Yeah FSS says the following "Fang is the rare Ivy Leaguer making a push to get drafted awfully high in 2025. He a physically matured 6-foot-3-inch righty with a quick arm. He's a pitcher, not a thrower. The stuff might not overwhelm, but the execution can." This is the Twins typical arm that can throw strikes and work on upping the fastball to make the secondaries better. Doesn't always work, but when it does good things happen. I agree probably a pen arm. Fastball can likely play in shorter stints and he has quality secondaries to work with. Risky profile but we are in the 13th round now.

Last two picks look like they need fastball help. Hopefully the Twins can fix that and get those K rates up.

Daniels is another interesting pick and as I thought they took him at 11 in case they can't get him to sign. I would say he couldn't end up in a much better organization than Minnesota but that will be up to him. https://www.ctpost.com/sports/uconn/article/ryan-daniels-mlb-draft-2025-uconn-baseball-20764893.php Stats from last year are very good. Glossary Year Age AgeDif Tm Lg Lev Aff G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB College (3 seasons) College 116 465 373 105 115 25 6 22 108 31 5 72 83 .308 .430 .584 1.014 218 2 11 4 5 1 Other (2 seasons) Other 23 79 64 10 19 5 0 2 17 9 1 13 13 .297 .418 .469 .886 30 1 0 1 1 All Levels (4 Seasons) 139 544 437 115 134 30 6 24 125 40 6 85 96 .307 .428 .568 .995 248 12 4 6 2 2022 18 -1.8 New Britain FCBL Smr 8 32 27 5 9 2 0 1 9 7 0 4 6 .333 .406 .519 .925 14 0 0 1 0 2023 19 -2.7 Connecticut BigE NCAA 42 138 110 26 30 8 2 1 20 16 1 21 28 .273 .401 .409 .811 45 1 4 1 2 0 2023 19 -1.6 Bristol NECL Smr 15 47 37 5 10 3 0 1 8 2 1 9 7 .270 .426 .432 .858 16 1 0 0 1 2024 20 -1.7 Connecticut BigE NCAA 20 75 60 10 11 2 0 3 13 5 1 11 14 .183 .319 .367 .686 22 0 1 3 0 0 2025 21 -0.3 Connecticut BigE NCAA 54 252 203 69 74 15 4 18 75 10 3 40 41 .365 .476 .744 1.220 151 1 6 0 3 1

Round 11 is always interesting as teams often times take a chance on guy who might not sign and will go above slot. Wondering what the Twins do in that spot this year.

I don't normally post the full writeups from pay sites, but on this one I am a little confused because the evals seem so different. One has him as plus hitter the other does not. One has him staying at short theother does not. BA Robinson is a smooth and athletic shortstop with a lean, 6-foot-1, 195-pound frame. He’s a glove-first prospect who moves around the infield with fluidity and can make highlight reel, acrobatic diving plays. He’s got enough arm strength for shortstop and knows when to let fly on his throws, with a quick exchange when necessary as well. Offensively, Robinson is a patient and selective hitter, but one who also has a pull-heavy approach and can be exposed by soft stuff on the outer third. Teams’ conviction levels in Robinson’s hit tool could vary considering he never hit above .269 in the Missouri Valley Conference. He’s not a huge power threat or standout runner, but he does have solid on-base ability and is an efficient base stealer. He’s plenty quick enough to stick at shortstop in the long run—provided he can hit enough to climb the ladder in pro ball. FSS CARRYING TOOL: Hit: 55 Arm: 55 Robinson has had a rollercoaster career at Illinois State, but he's finally seemed to turn a corner. His freshman campaign in 2023 was limited after he broke both hamate bones in his hands. He then played just half of the program's games as a sophomore, again missing half the season due to injury. The metrics point to a player who should continue to blossom and come into his own as July approaches. Robinson has always been a gifted player in the box. He's always shown a knack for putting bat on ball and laying off pitchers' pitches. He's a passive hitter who lets the game come to him, pulling the trigger only when he gets his pitch. That selective approach has pushed him into pitchers' counts too often, however. He was a slap-happy hitter his first two seasons in college. But Robinson got in the weight room this past spring/summer and now is a far more physical player. He played summer ball in the Northwoods League and was one of the more impactful sticks in the wood bat league. His eight homers in 52 games were three more than he'd posted his entire collegiate career. He showed improved peak exit velocities and scouts now believe he has a chance to tap into 15-20 homers as a pro; solid-average raw power. He's got a noisy swing with moving parts and triggers that vary from at-bat to at-bat. To this point, those parts of his swing have not gotten him in trouble, but they have resulted in high ground ball rates. He's an instinctual player who reacts in the box and uses his twitch to impact the baseball. He'll need to continue to show that blend of hit tool and punch if he's to capitalize on what some believe to be top-three round upside this July. As noted, Robinson is twitchy, but he's not necessarily a fast player. He's a fringe-average runner but can clock into another gear on balls in the gap. He's unlikely to ever be a base-stealing threat. Defensively, he's a reliable glove who can play all three infield positions. It's a plus throwing arm, so handling the left side of the infield in that regard is no issue. Robinson struggles with range to his right, so he'll likely be moved off shortstop in a full-time capacity at the next level, but it's a profile that plays nicely at third base and he's plenty comfortable at second base as well. Robinson doesn't have the size or speed of Kristian Campbell, but he ticks some of the same boxes the former Georgia Tech standout did in 2023. He may be a swing adjustment away from unlocking a new gear.

Mitrovich sounds like a typical Twins development prospect. Needs a velocity bump and pitch refinement. Here is a little of what BA has to say about him. They ranked him at 272 so right around this pick. " Mitrovich shows an excellent ability to locate his changeup at the bottom of the zone and is unafraid of throwing it to both lefties and righties. It’s arguably the top pitch in his arsenal and has plus upside. Mitrovich has less feel for his slider, but still has shown the control to be around the zone enough with his entire mix to keep hitters uncomfortable."

Ryan Sprock another interesting bat. Part of what FSS has to say about him. ranked 381 on their board. "Sprock is a physically imposing kid with a strong, sturdy, mature build and the game power you'd expect from a kid with his frame and bat speed. Sprock gets high marks for his approach -- a hitter who tends to stay inside the zone and lets the game come to in. When he pulls the trigger, Sprock has a tremendous feel for the middle of the bat and produces gaudy exit velocities with more frequency than almost all of his peers."

McCombs ranked 98 on FSS 180 on MLB and 368 on BA. BA seems to think he would be taken in rounds 5 through 10 as someone who take below slot money. Hard to believe for a sophomore player but makes some sense if they have to go above slot for Agbayani. I like the profile. He covers the entire zone and has some pop. Didn't fare well with a wood bat in super small sample size. Runs well possibly slightly plus. Solid pick for round 7. Would like it if they got to some arms though.

If you like Joe Doyle's analysis on FSS here is a little bit of what he thinks about Agbayani. "Agbayani is athletic enough to handle second base and could end up there long-term. He may outgrow the middle of the field and end up at either third base or left field in due time. He's an average runner with a fringy arm. He lacks much physical projection at this stage. Scouts really like the bat and believe he could be a reasonably safe high school bet."

Agbayani is an interesting pick. Likely going to go over slot. Sounds like a bat first player not likely to stick at short. These are the types of players the Twins turn into something. I like the pick.

Draft rankings don't mean much. Often times there isn't much difference between a player taken at 16 and 30. It is often based on preference. For those of us (myself included) who feel the Twins "reach" on players this year in the first few rounds it looks like they found value on three out of the four picks with the fourth taken verry close to where ranked. Houston ranked 15 taken 16 Quick ranked 38 taken 36 Young ranked 37 taken 54 Ellwanger ranked 76 taken 88 So according to MLB.om anyway they made value picks pretty much every pick. Again not that it means much except that in past years the Twins seem to go off board sooner than most. Even just last year Culpepper was ranked 32 and they took him at 21. despite what the board said it turned out to be a great pick.

Jamie had said last night Houston's OAA(Outs above average) wasn't that great this year. More average than above average, Personally I am not too hung up on whether he would be plus there, just that he can play there and there was consensus that he would stay at short. It takes a lot to be plus, but average isn't bad. Have to take some of these evals with a grain of salt. Last year most scouts felt Culpepper sticking at short was unlikely. When the Twins drafted Miller there were questions about his speed and defense and he looked plus out there. Scouts see players at different times defensive stats are a bit fickle and players aren't finished products yet. I would say that even if ultimately he isn't a plus defender not a huge deal as he likely can still make all the plays just maybe not some of the elite ones.

Jamie thanks for the live feed! I really enjoyed the analysis! Much more fun and engaging as we wait for the Twins picks than just watching the TV. Gotta say your knowledge is amazing. I try to stay up on a lot of the top 50 guys but you know guys way down the board. I guess I am a grass is greener kind of guy. I really liked a lot of other teams drafts better than the Twins. As you know I am a big pitcher first advocate and I would have preferred a prep arm where they took Young. I will say they were tied to Neyens and I would guess that with Young still there and a pretty similar profile they couldn't help themselves. I like the Houston pick better than most. They had a top 16 pick and they should have and did get an up the middle player. There were better bats and some with louder tools but how many more second baseman can this team use. They also seem to find guys that can play second later in the draft. It is really hard to find good defensive and offensive up the middle players. I will say the lack or power and lower exit velo's does concern me. I love Austin Martin but the fact he can pretty much only hit singles leaves me wanting more out of most any position be plays. The Twins have helped several players to develop pull side power and it looks like Houston tried more of that this past year. Granted he needs even more, but it seems like something they might help him with and if he does hit for average power this is a very, very good pick IMO. There was early chatter about him going from pick 11 and comps to Swanson who went number 1 his draft year. I like the pick. I was ecstatic when the Twins took Quick. Not only was it solid value, but for prospect system watchers like me it was a need. The system especially the lower levels is void of difference making arms. There is no one to hype up other than Hill and Soto and Maybe Bohorquez who are all quite far away. Grabbing a work horse type arm with good stuff who could move quickly if he can refine some things made a ton of sense. Absolute A+ for me on the Quick pick. As noted earlier they did grab a player with very loud tools in Young. I just get the willies when they talk about swing and miss even though I know that is a part of the power game. As much as I have cried and complained about Wallner over the years I do love watching his majestic home runs. This is probably a much better pick than I am giving it credit for but I would have gone high school pitcher there since I feel arms are a larger system need. Twins scouts know more than I do and Young was a severe up arrow prospect late. We'll see if they are right in 5 years or so as power bats are generally very slow to develop. I don't know much about Ellwanger. He looks like a two pitch pitcher with two very good pitches. he seems to have some of the high end tools the Twins like. Might take longer for him to develop but I love the pick. happy they got two nice arms early this year. Overall my strategy would have been closer to what Boston did. Just take high end pitching. You look at the system and the top 5 guy are hitters in Jenkins, Rodriguez, Keaschal, Culpepper and Gonzalez. Raya and Preilipp have looked shaky so far this year and there isn't much behind them until the high school arms. The Twins might need to sell off arms in the not too distant future so they need more arms. Was happy they got two good ones and would have like a third one as mentioned a high school arm, but despite my reservations I think this was a very good balanced draft. I always get hung up on certain players profiles that I love, but I don't get to "really see" these guys so what do I know other than what is fed to me by other analysts. It was a good day one now they need to crush day 2 finding those diamonds in the rough.

Nice to see Zebby back. Hopefully he stays healthy the rest of the way. Happy Eeles is hitting HR's. I think once he gets going with the power he will get his chance, I know we all have seen Winokur in the box scores getting hits, but do you realize he has a 1.080 OPS in July? It is only a couple of weeks, but his bat has been getting better the last month. Hoping this is the breakout we have been waiting for.

I love this pick! We need more arms in the system and having a possible mid to top of the rotation arm is just what the doctor ordered. Happy they went arm early.

If the power comes, even just 45 power he is a steal there. Everything else is plus.

FWIW I am concerned about the same things you are. I was wrong last year about Culpepper so hoping I am wrong again.

Yeah I saw that and they had him rated around number 30 as well so pretty far down the board for them. They also said this about him as well. "Limited power ceiling, but a high-probability low-end everyday shortstop thanks to contact and defense."

I said this earlier in another thread as they were tied pretty heavily to Houston. Houston was 16 on the current consensus board which is the Twins pick. I get that Houston is falling some because the power might not be there and we've seen what that means looking at Austin Martin that it can be hard to get over a .700 OPS without power. Still I think he will be an attractive pick for the Twins. My reasoning is below. I know he is a high floor low ceiling guy, but he should be a quick moving up the middle player with 4 above average tools with power being the thing holding him back. With his frame I really don’t see much more power coming, but I am sure the Twins will work with him on pull side power. The second thing is when you look at Culpepper versus Houston there isn’t a ton of difference other than Culpepper had slightly better bat speed and exit velocities. Houston appears to be the better defender and has a hit tool pretty equal to Culpepper minus some power. Having two players that could actually stick at shortstop in the system would be a great thing to have. With the lack of power Houston could end up in a Willi Castro type roll except he would likely be a very good to elite shortstop defensively. That should be his floor though. For as unexciting a pick as it might be I think it is a good one. If he does find a little Brian Dozier in himself it would be a great pick. Here is Draft profiles for both Houston and Culpepper below according to MLB.com (I will say other sites have Houston as a plus hitter and given what I have read I have him rated that way MLB.com has him as average) Hit: Houston 50 Culpepper 55 Power: Houston 45 Culpepper 45 Run: Houston 55 Culpepper 50 Arm: Houston 55 Culpepper 60 Field: Houston 60 Culpepper 50 Overall: Houston 55 Culpepper 50 So bottom line MLB.com has Houston as the better player. Time will tell if that is true especially with as good as Culpepper has been. Still if he is the Twins pick I can see why.

Great writeup!! Thank you!! He was ranked in the 30's with some thinking he would be a supplemental pick. When they made the pick my first thought was it must be an under slot deal to save money, but that was not the case. At the time I felt that if he could stay at short it was a decent pick, but it did feel risky given the writeups. I never even day dreamed he would be this good this fast and fulfill most of his potential this early. Twins got that one right and it is nice to have a legit shortstop in the system and in the top 100.

Thanks for the feedback! You are master at this I just come along for the ride. I will say I don't see Bremnar falling to the Twins as he is mentioned with every team from the A's to our pick. Long odds there, but I love the arm. Fein and Pierce are interesting. I like both profiles. Wouldn't mind either one. I like Kilen's profile. Seems a safe bet to hit and with power coming could be a Culpepper type pick, but if doesn't stick at short it feels we like have a lot of second base types stacked up and I prefer up the middle or a special arm at 16. Neyens a total Twins pick but high risk. I hate questionable hit tools. Blows up way too often. Taylor is growing on me but I don't see him or Davalan making it to 36. They would be interesting as money saving move, but with questionable defense hard to forgo that at 16 if someone is there. Would love, love the Cervantes pick. Lot's of teams in on those few high school arms. Probably going to need a fair bit of money to get one. I am betting the Twins have something lined up for lessor known arms but we will see. Would be kind of cool if they got Dickerson again. I mean that's why they drafted him the first time to hopefully get a shot the second time. Not sure how I feel about those numbers after moving, but Twins scouts will know. Glad you threw in at least one catcher. You would have gotten clobbered if you didn't mention at least one. I think third round for a catcher makes sense. We'll see what they do. Love your content. I will be on the stream listening to your analysis.

I don't think the Twins are going to trade Ryan at this years deadline. The FO hasn't even mentioned they are trying to trade him or anyone for that matter. Next year if the Twins are out of it at the deadline the calculus might change. Then they would effectively have just one more year of control of Ryan (2027) and if they kept let him walk after 2027 all they would get is likely a first round comp pick assuming he stays healthy until then. Or at next years deadline maybe someone offers two top 100 prospects. Guys that have already proven themselves to some degree versus a draft pick that hasn't played pro ball. Just like Berrios where it appeared they were not going to extend him and got two top 100 guys I would think the Twins would do the same thing. I get that trade didn't work out as well as hoped, but it likely worked better than getting just one draft pick from a later round. If the Twins are good and competing for the division next year or wild card then he is too important to trade. I would just keep him to the end and take the draft pick comp. Top of the rotation arms are so important to playoff success you can't trade them willy nilly. You need them for the post season. I think they'll end up holding onto him until the end, but we will see.

Jamie, love those profiles but there are two players the Twins have appeared to be tied to that you didn't mention. One would be Summerhill who on some lists has fallen pretty far back which is strange considering the tools he brings even if he might lack some power projection. The other is Houston who on the current consensus board falls at 16 which is the Twins pick. I get that he is falling some because the power might not be there and we've seen what that means looking at Austin Martin that it can be hard to get over a .700 OPS without power. Still I think he will be an attractive pick for the Twins. My reasoning is below. I know he is a high floor low ceiling guy, but he should be a quick moving up the middle player with 4 above average tools with power being the thing holding him back. With his frame I really don’t see much more power coming, but I am sure the Twins will work with him on pull side power. The second thing is when you look at Culpepper versus Houston there isn’t a ton of difference other than Culpepper had slightly better bat speed and exit velocities. Houston appears to be the better defender and has a hit tool pretty equal to Culpepper minus some power. Having two players that could actually stick at shortstop in the system would be a great thing to have. With the lack of power Houston could end up in a Willi Castro type roll except he would likely be a very good to elite shortstop defensively. That should be his floor though. The only other comparable would be Aloy who has excellent power for a shortstop and the infield in general but doesn’t have the contact rates Houston has or speed. Aloy also has chase issues although they said that about Culpepper too. For as unexciting a pick as it might be I think it is a good one. If he does find a little Brian Dozier in himself it would be a great pick. Draft years for both players below according to MLB.com (I will say other sites have Houston as a plus hitter and given what I have read I have him rated that way) Hit: Houston 50 Culpepper 55 Power: Houston 45 Culpepper 45 Run: Houston 55 Culpepper 50 Arm: Houston 55 Culpepper 60 Field: Houston 60 Culpepper 50 Overall: Houston 55 Culpepper 50 So bottom line MLB.com has Houston as the better player. Time will tell if that is true especially with as good as Culpepper has been. Still if he is the Twins pick I can see why.