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Dman

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Everything posted by Dman

  1. Dman
    Boy that was a tough start, but a great finish! Nice to see clutch Max back.
  2. Dman
    Bazana is an absolute beast. He is the perfect Cleveland hitter. Gonna hate facing him when he goes against the Twins. There's a chance Moore could be there when the Twins pick, but with all the second base types in the system not sure he would be my first pick there, but depending on what is left at 21 I wouldn't mind if they picked Moore. He seems like the type of player the Twins would go after. He can hit for average and has good power. The chase issue does concern me some, but given the numbers not that much. I'm just not that high on 2nd basemen given we have so many as it is. Would prefer they go up the middle with their higher picks.
  3. Dman
    TBH it seemed a little early to have a second round pick in the top 100 with not even one full pro year yet. However, it sure looks like BA is going to be right. AA is no easy jump Schobel, Cardenas, Cossetti, Ross and Ortega have all bottomed out there. With Ross the worst qualified hitter in the Texas league in OPS and Ortega not far behind. Still a lot of season left, but the way Keaschall makes contact appears to be special. Will have to wait and see though.
  4. Dman
    Just want to say these video reviews are amazing and spot on IMO. Where do you find these outside of Twins Daily? Adam really knows what's what in the prospect world.
  5. Dman
    Keaschall is sure making Baseball America look like they know more than other sites by having him in their top 100. After his 4 for 5 night he has his OPS in AA up to .900 again. Pitchers don't like to see him in the box, If they can get Rodriguez back healthy that AA lineup could be trouble. Schulfer always seemed close, but not quite good enough. Would take some big change for him to make it somewhere else, but he is pretty much buried in this system so I can see why they let him go and good for him to catch on somewhere else. That elusive some nasty pitch is out there. Hope he finds it.
  6. Dman
    Speaking of Blewett he has pitched really well this year so far. 2,41 ERA 36 K's in 32 IP, 1.07 WHIP. Those are really good numbers.
  7. Dman
    I haven't been kind to Correa since the signing, but he has been amazing this past week and generally most of the year at the plate. If he had enough at bats to qualify he would have a top 20 OPS in Baseball right now and I really enjoy his defensive play as well. The injury got the best of him last year, but he is playing great this year. Hope he keeps it up and the that Twins can lengthen the lineup to make it harder on opposing pitchers.
  8. Dman
    While I agree with many of the reasons above just to pile on here's a couple more. The reason they would only do one year deals this year is because next year is kind of a balloon year with Correa's biggest salary year and Pablo moving into the 20M range and while they don't have a ton of arb salaries for next year by 2026 they will have Ryan and Ober and others to deal with for Arb salaries. They also still have TV revenue uncertainty until that is settled they don't really know how far they can stretch things and will play it safe until that gets resolved. We are going to have to live with what we have and with players on the margins to fill gaps or trades involving up and coming talent with lower salaries .I don't see them adding another large contract anytime soon.
  9. Dman
    There is no pressure on Vasquez. The only way Camargo comes up would be as an injury replacement. Vasqy's defense is too valuable and they will just have to live with what he can give them offensively.
  10. Dman
    It sure seems like the lefty Rozak could be a good option out the pen. He has been a bit abused in long relief this year, but the guy must have a super strong arm or something because he is always ready for his turn. I think he started in AAA this year but was pretty bad there. However, his ERA and FIP look pretty darn good in AA. The K rate is down in AA this year but his ERA is 1.90. I don't know much about his stuff and whether it would play well at the MLB level, but he is dominating at the AA level so probably time to find out if he can handle AAA again or if this is his peak.
  11. Dman
    All I know is he is the best Twins shortstop we have had in a very long time. Happy to have a guy that can fill that hole for us.
  12. Dman
    Thanks so much for responding! I really appreciate you indulging me. OK one last post on this one. if they are all there and they could be is Caldwell still your choice? If both Honeycutt and Caldwell are there at 21 who are you picking? Would you pick Culpepper over Gillen? Would you do White over Gillen and Caldwell? I am just curious as there are so many players lumped into 19 to 33 that don't seem too far off from one another. It seems like tools would be the deciding factor, but contact rate and power are very important tools and can trump everything else. Just curious what your deciding factors would be.
  13. Dman
    Jamie, maybe you will be covering this in your show but While there is a top 10 or 11, after those picks it seems to be trending more college bats from 11 to about 17 with James Tibbs, Cam Smith, Seaver King, Carson Benge, Ryan Waldschmidt, and maybe Christian Moore. Tucked in there are two pitchers Trey Yesavage and Cam Caminiti that appear destined to go in the top 20. If any of those names fell to the Twins I would be fine with them grabbing a college bat. If things fall like they did above and the Twins still want to go college bat at 21 it leaves some names I don’t particularly like in Kaelen Culpepper, Tommy White, Vance Honeycutt, Dakota Jordan and Brody Brecht. Granted they all have some great tools but Culpepper Honeycut and Jordan all have trouble controlling the strike zone and or swing and miss issues. That type of player hasn’t worked out well for the Twins in the past. I get that Honeycut is probably Byron Buxton II in the field, but the 40 hit tool and K rate screams he’ll never make it to me. Jordon slightly better hit tool but still problematic IMO. Culpepper might not stick at short and appears to lack power. Not a Twins pick IMO and he is a very aggressive swinger likely to be exploited at the MLB level if not sooner. Possibly Delmon Young II at the plate. Tommy White has a good eye and great bat. He has exit velocities the Twins love and good bat to ball skills if I understand correctly. I like the bat, I really do but he looks like he is stuck at 1st base or DH. I just don’t love taking that type of hitter at 21 overall. Up the middle talent is so hard to come by it always goes early in the draft. White might be an OK pick but it would be nice to find a player with more positional upside and not have to bet on just the bat. If you think Brecht will ever discover some kind of control he would be a steal at 21. It sounds like he hasn’t been pitching long so maybe there is hope there, but guys with lack of control generally don’t find it later and if the great Wes Johnson couldn’t fix Anderson I don’t really want to risk Brecht at 21. Maybe 33 but not 21. What are your thoughts on Honeycut, Culpepper, Brecht, White and Jordon? Would they make sense at 21 for the Twins? There is going to be something good that drops to 21. I just hope they bet on the bat and not tools that may never come into play like Cavaco.
  14. Dman
    I'd be happy with that draft for the Twins. It feels like high school players are the way to go in more ways than one for me. First HS players get exposed to the pro game sooner and seem to develop faster. Second I think it makes sense for the Twins to build a second wave of talent so if it takes 4 or 5 years for those players to develop that timeline works out pretty well for when current players will leave via free agency. Third the infield is pretty full right now so it doesn't feel like they need a quick to the majors type player and most of the big college bats are in the infield. I really like Caldwell as a fit for the Twins and it is hard to say if he makes it all the way to 21, but if he does it feels like a perfect fit for the Twins to me. A future outfield of Caldwell, Jenkins and Rodriguez would be pretty dynamic IMO. If Janek fell all the way to 33 it would be hard for me to pass him up even for pitching help. It is so hard to find a good defensive catcher who can possibly hit and I think Janek could be one that can. With a plus arm and solid power I'd be willing to give up a little hit tool just for the added defense. I'd also consider Bazzell at 33. He appears to have an elite hit tool with an average to plus arm. Doesn't look like a power stroke, but possibly elite hit tool with possible good to very good defense seems like a good get at 33. If going prep bat I think Wyatt Sanford would be my pick at 33. Really good defense with a chance to hit. Not projected for much power so maybe not a Twinsy pick, but I like going hitter, hitter as the hitters fall off the table most likely by pick 60. I do like the Oakey pick and would be totally OK with that pick. 33 is a great spot to get your pick of some of the next tier HS arms. It would ensure you have the chance for a fairly fast moving elite arm and is a pick the Twins don't usually make. Having two first round picks means that they can even out the bats and arms and in most years with just one 1st round pick you have to choose bat or arm this way you can get both in the first round. Doing it that way they should get a good value bat at 21 and arm at 33. Bottom line I think the board could fall very close to what you have there. I still think Benge goes top 20, but there are so many mix and match guys it will be interesting to see where guys fall. I can't make up my mind about going bat, bat or bat arm. Will be interesting to see what the Twins do. Thanks for sharing your picks.
  15. Dman
    I think he will be. He already caught Baseball America's attention and is in their top 100. He is going to be top 10 in the Twins system. Probably just behind Festa or maybe in front since his control is so good.
  16. Dman
    Morris's numbers aren't that far off from Zebby's so I agree he looks like a future rotation piece as well. Morris seems to give up a bit more contact but his WHIP is still real good and the K rate while lower than Matthews is OK as well. He's been pretty lights at AA as well just not as many innings there yet. I don't know if I am as optimistic as you on Prielipp. Almost back to back TJ's doesn't bode well for durability. It would be awesome if he could become a star lefty starter though. I'm just keeping him out of of any future hope until he can put up some innings and stay healthy.
  17. Dman
    I shouldn't get ahead of myself, but I can't remember a pitcher dominating like Matthews at that level since Ober. What a line Just three hits over 7 innings. No walks and 8 K's. That is absolute domination. No way around it and that lineup was putting up numbers until Morris and Matthews. If Lewis can come back and be who he was (Twins MiLB pitcher of the year last year) Things will be looking up in the starting pitcher department. Festa is at AAA as well. We could have that elusive starting pitching depth next year if these guys continue to pitch like this. Winoker is finally getting to his power more. I am sure they have him working on plate discipline and contact rate to start as those are his weaknesses, but nice to see some power returning. A 3 for 4 day with a walk to boot and no K's. If he keeps this up he is looking like a steal in the 3rd round. Doncon with a much needed 4 for 5 day and a double. He seems to get to the ball well for a 20 year old. Its been a tough start, but hopefully he has his mojo back. Helman with another HR and big day at the plate trying to push that OPS to .900 on the year. Shout out to @DocBauer who even when he was down to start the year was a Helman believer. It looks like he is back to the player that keeps getting mentioned for a call up Probably way to many guys in front right now, but if he keeps this up he will have a chance with the Twins or somewhere else next year if he chooses to move on.
  18. Dman
    Its the unappreciated guys at AA that seem to be playing the best. Rucker doesn't really have any plus tools that I can see but is average all the way around. Still after Rodriguez he is next in line for OPS for those who qualify at the AA Texas league. He has dropped his K rate to 12% so far this year which means he is making more contact and putting more balls in play. Probably needs to work on the quality of that contact but his 2 home runs last night indicate he can do it. Perhaps power and or contact can be his plus tools? Morales doesn't qualify but has a higher OPS than Rucker at .847 which is second behind Rodriguez. HIs K rate is 15% so surprise, surprise two guys that make a lot of contact and don't strike out are so far doing better than the top 30 guys ahead of them. Cardenes being the exception as his K rate and walk rate are almost equal but just no power at all so far. Although Schobels K rate is higher than the names mentioned above it only in the 20% range, but he too has not found a way to get to his power at AA. AA is a tough level to master and it has slowed everyone except Rodriguez so far. We'll see how Keaschal does but sample size is way too small so far.
  19. Dman
    Its very possible they go with a college bat. I think Christian Moore would be attractive at 21. I am hoping one of Gillen or Caldwell make it to 21. They would be solid high school picks for 21. If they are gone I assume college bat. There will still be some good ones in that range.
  20. Dman
    I like the first name Waldechmidt the best. My kind of profile with really good bat to ball, good speed and possibly good power. I have him going sometime after 21 as his arm grades out as 40 which makes even left field a tough fit. The arm is the main issue holding him back some IMO. Depending on what is left for hitters wouldn't mind him at 33. If I felt confident about Lindsey's bat he would be my pick at 21 He seems likely to go between 21 and 33 as there are too many loud tools. After Cavaco these pop up guys make me nervous. He doesn't look like he will have much power projection so I don't see the Twins grabbing him, but who knows. Lewis has a nice profile. I have seen him mocked from the teens to the comp round. He might be the best HS shortstop option in this class in the Twins range so he probably goes sooner rather than later. It's the questions around his bat holding him back and that makes me nervous. It's a quality profile other than potentially the bat. Maybe the Twins risk it at 21 but would have to wait and see what's there first. He would be a nicer pickup/gamble at 33 if he makes it that far. The Twins will have to decide if they want to go arm at 33 because I expect a run on high school pitchers after that. Still there aren't a ton of good bats in this draft after the first 40 to 50 picks so they will have to pick their poison to some degree. Grab an arm and hope for a bat to fall to pick 60 or grab a bat and hope a solid arm falls to 60. If the draft is mostly bats to start the Twins could have their pick of a top arm at 33. The problem is after the 2nd round I don't see many if any elite bats. There might be some power over hit guys in the third and beyond but I expect mainly pitchers the rest of the way so they might want to go bat, bat and then go heavy on arms the rest of the way. Again it probably depends on what is there when they pick and how they see the board falling to feel comfortable getting something good\what they want at 60 and 69. I know the age thing is troublesome but I still think Daniel Nori can sneak into the first round as a comp pick most likely second round though. There is a lot to like, but I can see that being 20 later this year with no college experience would be tough to overcome. It seems like a nice set of tools though.
  21. Dman
    I wonder if those pitches out of the zone are the only way they give him fastballs? He loves fastballs. I too agree that I don't think I have seen a player with more swing and miss at pitches right down the middle or at least over the heart of the plate. Granted if GameDay can be believed a lot of those pitches have quite a bit of movement, but you would think he could at least grab a piece of the ball in those situations. I think there is still a lot to work on, but am happy he is at least seeing some positive results again. With the tight zone at AAA he needs to be more consistent than he has been to earn a trip back IMO.
  22. Dman
    Maybe sometimes, umpires at the MLB level expand the zone all the time, but he is taking strikes well over the plate these days just because it isn't in his spot or he was expecting something else. His contact rate hasn't been good either. Pitchers are getting better at pitching to him on the edges of the zone. Regardless he will have to adapt to MLB one way or another and while I don't think AAA will help him with the zone it should help his confidence.
  23. Dman
    Yeah I don't know what is going on, but he seems like a shell of himself from past years. His control hasn't been great but 27 hits in 16 innings pitched and 6 of those were HR's says his stuff is way, way too hittable right now. It looks like he is trying to stay more out of the zone to compensate, but they need to revamp pitch shape, how they are attacking the zone or maybe just new pitches but a 9.00 ERA and 2.00 WHIP isn't going to bring him back to the show. IMO somethings wrong as he has been better than this all the way up. I have no idea what that something is, but hopefully they can get it corrected sooner rather than later. Edit: sorry those were MLB numbers. Actually even though his ERA is 5.31 at AAA his FIP is 3.78 and xFIP 3.58 which says the results should be better than they are. The K 9 is still good at AAA. Walks are in-line too. I don't know how to remove this post but it is not accurate. He is doing ok at AAA, but not dominating like he had in the past..
  24. Dman
    No one does Twins draft coverage like you do. Awesome guest and fun to see how so many view this draft. If as it seems the the next tier is 12 through about 40 the Twins should get two good players at 21 and 33 pretty much no matter what.
  25. Dman
    I think those are good reasonable points, but if baseball has taught me anything it is to expect the unexpected. Teams that get off to good starts can sometime mask their deficiencies just enough to take the division. Also injuries can play a huge role in team outcomes. Lose a couple of key bats or arms and that can affect the win\lose record real quick. I haven't looked that closely at the Guardians team, but I feel like Minnesota has the better deeper team. I also think the Twins can make up some ground as they play teams they have better odds of defeating. I still like the odds of the Twins winning the division, but we'll know more by the All Star break.
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