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Dman

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Everything posted by Dman

  1. Dman
    My question is with 12 of the first 15 picks being hitters it seems the Twins would be in a good spot to have their pick of some really good arms at 21. However, Since this draft isn't overly deep and it feels like the bats drop off pretty significantly outside the top 10 and then again around the top 60 or so will the Twins focus on hitters early in the draft and hope to find pitchers who have fallen for various reasons? They have two picks in both the 1st and second rounds so it seems like Hitter\pitcher in each round keeping it balanced makes sense and I hope they do that. Still I like how your consensus board worked out for them as I think pitcher at 21 will be the best value, but who knows who might fall as a hitter that makes it a tougher choice. Just curious to know what you think their strategy might be or what yours would be.
  2. Dman
    Severino's K rate this spring and to start the season is alarming. Hoping he gets it going pretty soon again. Man Headrick with 8k's in 3.2 innings. He's got the stuff, but he needs to stop the bleeding with the HR's. Spring is generally tougher on the hitters, but St. Paul has a good bunch of bats. As the weather warms the Bats will heat up.
  3. Dman
    Dobnak needs an out pitch and if he finds it and ups his K rate IMO he can make it back. Still given the way things are working out with Festa, SWR, and Raya as future arms that look to have better stuff it seems hard for me to see Dobnak as a starter again at least for the Twins. I think his best role would be as a long man in the pen. He still generally keeps the ball on the ground and like I said if he can up the K rate he could be a dominant reliever in time. If the Twins don't see a future for him I would suggest they call the Rockies up and see if they would give up something of Value for Dobnak as his ability to keep the ball on the ground would be a perfect fit for them and he doesn't cost that much.
  4. Dman
    Yeah don't forget he also had 50 stolen bases last year. With that bat he has a solid chance as a fourth outfielder and if the power starts to show up he could manage a starter role. Things to work on would be a bit more patience at the plate and power. Those are tough things to do and keep the average up. This will be a big year for him, but as @FlyingFinn said with Larnach, Martin and likely Kiersey ahead of him he is going to have to up his game to make it to the 40 man and MLB.
  5. Dman
    I agree Doc. I like Martin a lot and he will be a good fit for this team eventually. I just think he would be better served getting consistent at bats at AAA instead of a bench role with the MLB club. If the Twins could afford a 40 man spot for Helman I agree he would have been a nice choice. He played shortstop for St Paul last night and looked good there. and as you noted he can play 7 other spots. He went 0 for 4 last night but the first two balls went to the warning track and a third was scorched but right to the 3rd baseman. I can see why the Twins are high on him. I just think that if you were going to waste a guy on the bench giving it to the 27 year old Helman would have made more sense, however, since he is not on the 40 man Martin is a good choice as an infield\outfield replacement and pinch runner. Hopefully he can do some positive things while he is up there and prove he belongs. It's just tough without consistent at bats to make it from the bench. That is my only concern.
  6. Dman
    I had them moving Miranda up, but I like Martin better as a late innings runner and he has good OnBase skills so could be a decent guy to pinch hit for contact\drawing walks. He should be decent defensively in Left or 2nd base as well. I think it is a good choice I was just hoping they were gonna make sure the bat looked good at AAA first, but with Margo, Castro and Farmer ahead of him not sure if we see him much anyway. I hate that Royce went down due to injury, but I think Martin is a good choice as a player with a very flexible toolset.
  7. Dman
    It feels like Larnach or Miranda to me. Both have MLB experience and can hit HR's a Twins MO. Still as a pinch runner and righty outfielder with some speed Martin could make sense. I guess it depends on what they feel they need most. I know he hasn't exactly proven he is all way back but my pick for best bat is Miranda. A righty bat replaces a righty bat. Miranda has good contact skills and can hit HR's. Miranda could also play third in a pinch if absolutely needed but is redundant at first with Santana entrenched there. You could make a case for any of them depending on what you want to do. Whoever comes up I don't see them being much more than a pinch hitter as Farmer and Castro can fill in just fine for now. I'd go Miranda with Larnach next in line since he is a lefty. Martin works for me as well I just think they will go with the guys who have been there before.
  8. Dman
    They will both get their chances at third. I think it will depend on who fits best in the lineup more than anything else. It would also depend on where they feel they need Castro the most. Defensively I do like Castro better at third, but Farmer was kept on to be a lefty killer and fill in for injuries so he will be out there as he is good enough defensively to be trusted in all the infield spots. We'll see how they mix and match going forward.
  9. Dman
    Bummer news on Royce, bur hopefully it isn't too bad in the end. If I had to guess I would imagine Miranda would be the call up. He has MLB experience, could play third in a pinch and with his good contact and power makes for a good punch hitter for lefty matchups late. If Royce isn't going to miss much time maybe they roll with what they have? Hard to say until we know more, but Miranda would be my guess.
  10. Dman
    Tom that was absolute gold. You should go national with this stuff. I think I watched that Willie Castro montage about 5 times, but the whole thing was just super entertaining. You have a gift. Thanks for sharing. 🙂
  11. Dman
    I am a huge Willie Castro fan as he is such a versatile defender and really just a hit tool away from being a five tool player IMO. His ability to run well and steal bases is refreshing on a team that doesn’t have many players that can run well. If his hit tool improves they are going to need to find a regular spot for him.
  12. Dman
    I had him as my sire of Fort Myers pick until his last game against real MLB players. I got a chance to watch on MLB.tv and he didn't look all that great to me, but what do I know. Still his results have been pretty good so I think there is a chance he could be a lower leverage reliever, but I don't see him being as dominant as someone like Stewart. Will be interesting to see how he performs the rest of the way. Right now it looks like he should be in the mix for that last spot in the Bullpen. Hoping he turns into a dominant reliever, but I don't see it.
  13. Dman
    They have played a ton of depth guys to start this spring so they aren't worried about winning games just trying to see where guys are at so I am not concerned about the record. I do agree with @stringer bell that I have my concerns about some of the bats. Especially the bats that started slow last year in Correa, Kepler, Wallner. I get that spring training numbers don't mean much, but guys struggling to get hits doesn't create confidence they will start the regular season well. Like most have said there isn't much reason to worry. Everybody has time to get things right yet, and once the depth guys get sent down we'll see a bit more clearly how the regulars are going to perform. Every year some guys start slow and some start hot. It usually all evens out over time.
  14. Dman
    I had to be the high man on Headrick to start the season last year (I had him top 10 in my top 20). He came out and had 2.45 ERA for the Twins into June and shortly thereafter gave up more runs (5) in one inning than he had the previous 10 innings. It seemed by mid June on, he just wasn't the same pitcher. I remember a game late in the season where they brought him into a blowout and he couldn't find the strike zone and ended up with the bases loaded. He looked like shell of himself from early in the season. I do hope that a new pitch can help with his HR problem as he has shown signs of being a solid 5th starter, but like most on this site given what I have seen to this point he looks like a better bet to be in relief or long relief. He has a big rugged frame so it feels like he could be a durable starter. He just needs to find the right mix to get guys out. This will be a big year for him. 40 man spots are always short in short supply so he will need to show something to stay on there.
  15. Dman
    This looks like the Dodgers needed 40 man room and the Twins needed a right handed bat. The Prospects traded seem about equal to me. Both had trouble hitting last year, but Doncon has skills the Twins really value which is bat speed and contact. Doncon is no gold glove defender and he isn't as patient at the plate as Miller, but Millers contact has been weak to this point. If the Dodgers can fix that they strike gold with an elite glove and solid hitter. I think its a good trade off for them and they clear a 40 man spot. I really don't like Margot all that much, but having an experienced backup for all three spots makes sense, I really like Millers potential, however, if the bat isn't there the shine comes off. Given the current prospect rankings it looks like the Twins win this trade, but development\reaching potential is no sure thing. I hope this turns out well all the way around for the Twins as they go with yet another aggressive swinging contact bat in addition to Gonzalez. Hopefully the Twins can get those two to be patient enough to swing at pitches in the zone.
  16. Dman
    With this FO anything can happen but it seems to me they are looking at players willing to take one year deals so I see them waiting things out to see who is left that will sign a one year deal. We'll see how it all shakes out but they seem to like to wait the market out and hope something decent falls in their lap for a bargain price. They also have made late trades so that is a possibility as well. I get the feeling they are not done.
  17. Dman
    Pretty much everyone one on this site for several years has been asking for a stronger pen and it looks like the Twins are finally listening. This FO never believed in investing much in the pen and even now the money allocated there is low, but the depth is unlike anything we have seen before IMO. Seems to me this should really help the entire team take a step forward. It is a long season and arms wear down so I bet they use that depth. I am happy with what they have done so far.
  18. Dman
    Maybe it is smoke and mirrors but according to rumor sites the Twins are still in the hunt for another starter as well. If they would get one (which is no sure thing given the competition) it would seem that would move Desclafani to a swing man role n the pen.as well. It is an embarrassment of riches in the pen for the Twins compared to other years. All I can say is it is going to be an interesting spring.
  19. Dman
    Makes you pretty darn excited to see what Matt Canterino does this spring and to start the season.
  20. Dman
    I don't think you are understanding what I am saying. I am not saying Ober or Descla or Paddack aren't good pitcher's with good stats lines. That had nothing to do with my comment at all. I am saying all three have more injury risk than say guys that have had two or three or four years without major injury. I am saying it would be prudent to build extra depth because the odds are not in your favor of all of them making it a full season. Yeah Ober made it all season last year for the first time and maybe he will repeat that this year, but can you bank on that given his injury history? I wouldn't. I get that any pitcher can go down at anytime in any season so there is always risk. I just think the risk is even greater once a track record of injury is established. Those three have a track record of injury thus my house of cards comment. The rotation as configured could all come crashing down. One outcome is none of them are injured the entire year and they all pitch 180 innings and the house of cards stands. Another scenario is all three get injured and you are hoping Varland, Canterino and SWR can step in and take those innings unless they maybe sign one more guy to add a bit more veteran depth. Obviously you don't see that type of risk and that is fine. That is your opinion and you could be right and I could be wrong. For me after what happened last year with the team trying to use inexperienced guys like Sands, Moran, Winder, Balazovich, and Headrick things didn't work out well with them in the pen. You had to figure one of those guys would step up and work out, but none on them did. Depending on guys that haven't proven themselves can backfire. Granted I have quite a bit of faith in Varland and Canterino has been dominant when healthy like Ober was when he was in the Minors so I like their chances, but Varland struggled last year he might struggle again. We have no idea how Canterino's arm will hold up. Prielipp came to camp healthy after his TJ and two game in was done for the season again. So I don't want to bank on hope. I want as much proven depth as I can manage and there will be time to work in the young guys and see how they do. I think we just see risk differently and that's OK.
  21. Dman
    I think part of the reason some of theses lessor guys (options) have to wait is because the teams that don't get those top 4 guys might up the anti to a higher level to get some kind of replacement for losing on the player they wanted. MAT seems like he could be in that boat. One of the teams that wanted and doesn't get Bellinger could flip to MAT. Hard to say, but I do agree that once players have waited this long prices generally go down not up.
  22. Dman
    That is the first year he threw that many innings. 1 out of about 5 and he needed a long break at the end of the season to get there. I guess if you feel that is a good ratio or that he will never have any arm issues then that is fine don't include him. To me he has a history of breaking down and one year doesn't mean everything is necessarily all good. I'd still have a contingency plan for at least one if not two of Paddack, Descla and Ober.
  23. Dman
    It's not a certainty, but the rotation as constructed looks light to me and I think they add another veteran starter. It might be a 5th starter type that none of us wanted, but right now the rotation could be a house of cards with Paddack, Deslca and Ober. If they do add a Lorenzen, Odo, Ryu type then that would move Descla to the swingman role he was going to be used for in Seattle which given his arm history makes more sense to me. I could be dead wrong, but I don't see the Twins wanting to start the season with Varland, Canterino, Headrick or SWR as the 5th starter\swingman. I think ideally they make sure they are stretched out and on the right track in St. Paul before using them. Lot's of unknowns right now but I do think they go with a swingman for the 8th spot and try hard to get another arm in Free Agency. We'll see how things shake out.
  24. Dman
    Yeah that is what I am thinking too. I think they will go to around 130M for payroll this year so if they could move Farmer that would give them another 10 to 15M to get "A Guy". I like Farmer and like the fit for this team, but I don't think he is soo special that one of those other players couldn't come close to his production and if the piece they got (by moving his salary) was fairly big it might at least be a needle mover.
  25. Dman
    A little surprised some of the rebuilding teams didn't see Balazovich as an option if not to at least try and get him through waivers. With no one claiming him what does that say about his perceived projection as a MLB pitcher? Having no options left as a relief pitcher sure can leave you in no man's land. At any rate I am glad the Twins get another year to look at him and see if some tweaks can change his trajectory. I kind of thought Duarte would be claimed as well. I know the control issues are serious, but it seems like he has two good pitches to work with. Odds are he doesn't work out, but I still thought he would get claimed. Twins are going to have a lot of pen depth at AAA this year. With Helman, Prato and Goodrum hanging around would the Twins consider trading Farmer and adding a decent pitching FA to the roster with the saved money? Just wondering as they still have several interesting utility guys at AAA even beyond Lee. Here's hoping for a healthy spring for everyone.
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