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Dman

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Everything posted by Dman

  1. Dman
    Man Hill is a beast out of the gates. His pitching lines have been ridicules. He clearly looks ready for High A but I assume they like having him at Fort Meyers for development. I don't think I have seen a Twins first year teenager come close to what he is doing since I have been watching prospects. Maybe Blyleven for a comp? Gotta say I thought he would slowly but surely be good, but not this good this early. Looks like a "special" arm right now.
  2. Dman
    Correct me if my memory is faulty but wasn't Peschl a late sign and from a smaller school? His college stats didn't look great to me either. 5.48 ERA, more hits given up than innings pitched. K/9 was solid but that was about it. The Twins really have something going with those small school finds where they can improve the pitching mechanics. He keep this up though May and he will moving onto Cedar Rapids. He has been a really fun arm to follow so far. Bowen with another good outing as well. He looks like he wants to move up too. If he stops giving up too many home runs it looks like he is going to be in AAA before too long as well.
  3. Dman
    I kind or wrote Olivar off after he had a rough start at AA last year. Also I don't see him making it as a MLB catcher. Still he is a slow runner without much defensive value with a very good bat. AA isn't easy and this is really his first extended crack at it being healthy and not too dinged up like late last year and he is doing really well. Hope he keeps it up. If he can be an elite bat there is still 1st base or DH. Hoping he stays hot.
  4. Dman
    Yeah he is a horrible hitter. He just doesn’t see pitches well and is fooled way too easily. He is a guess hitter at this point. I don’t see him getting much better because he just doesn’t seem to have a clue what the ball is going to do.
  5. Dman
    Totally agree on Questad. He isn’t walking as many and is challenging hitters in the. Zone more. Definitely a top 30 guy for me. He has good movement on his pitches I think he keeps this up. Bummer on giving up the HR, but it happens. I have been very impressed at how far he has come from last year to this year.
  6. Dman
    So nice to see one of our affiliates with a walk off as it seems they have been walked off a fair bit to start this season. Bengard one of my favorite pitchers got dinged with a HR that barely made it out and coughed up the lead. The pitching was really good for both teams and I figured it would be another loss headed into the ninth, but DeBarge came through with the HR for the comeback win. Was great to see. i know it is only high A but most all of the hitters the Twins took in the top five of the 2024 draft have OPS’s of 900 or better and several with batting averages around 300 or better. Ferrer being the one in the top six guys not to be in that grouping. If the pitching holds there, they are going to be a really tough team to beat. Currently Amick is the top bat as he is second in the Midwest league in OPS and I think third in batting average.
  7. Dman
    I think they make him prove it through mid May if not through all of May to make sure it isn't just a hot streak. His last game he had 3K's and back to some swing and miss in the zone. Still his walk rate has been far, far better than I imagined it could ever be so I think he has a chance. He has power and while not much for HR's I'd rather see contact than HR's at this point. He was a HR hitter in college he has the bat speed they will come as long as he can hit the ball. Gotta say is making my predictions of him look bad so far, but we'll see what happens when he hits AA.
  8. Dman
    I was thinking Carr was going to be the one to watch, but Thomason had a great week. K rate 24% Walk rate 22% but the batting average is low right now and the only thing holding him back. I am betting he is too good for this level like most college bats are. I got to see one of his home runs and I think it went out of the stadium so he has some serious power. Won't know much until he hits AA but that's impressive and I can't think of anyone else who hit three HR's in one week at that level. Maybe Winokur on his HR hot streak last year? At any rate its a good stat to have. Kind of interested in Peschl. Does anyone know how hard he throws. I was going to go back and watch his game but haven't gotten the chance. That was a nice debut. Sure feels like Fedko has turned a corner. He likely needs another month to prove it, but dang he has been money at the plate to start the year.
  9. Dman
    I watched Bowen for one game and he looks very confident on the mound this year and has been better at attacking early and often. I didn't get the feeling he had elite stuff and yet he pretty much shut the other team down except for giving up a home run which he has a few times already. You look at his numbers and they arev all better than last year even after moving up a level so that is good. Still the K rate could be higher and his FIP and xFIP seem to indicate regression in those numbers especially ERA. I like that his WHIP is in a much better place so far this year and while I have seen him give up some hard hit balls for the most part he has been excellent when on the mound. Too early for me to say he can keep this up but if he does that would be massive improvement from last year and likely put him on track for a MLB debut at some point.
  10. Dman
    Watched most of the Muscles game and the defense was mind bogglingly bad. I mean bad news Bears bad. It was hard to believe they were pro ball players. The coaches there need to get to work. I know Pena is a big guy and catcher might be the only position he is “fit” to play but I don’t think I have seen a worse catcher in the minors in my time watching. Fumbling balls, a slow release and not a strong arm to 2nd. The other team was stealing 2nd base at will. They could have sent their slowest player and still made it. I really like his bat, but he has soooo far to go defensively he will single handedly lose games for them. I was always one to think they didn’t need to draft catchers early, but given what I am seeing I hope they add a good defensive catcher to the system in this years draft.
  11. Dman
    Those high school arms are all doing well so far. Soto, Questad, and Hill are all putting up good numbers. I like it when they take chances on High school arms to mix in with the later college arms and it looks like it might pay off big time for them. Have to say after last year watching Questad and his 2.26 WHIP pitch was not all that fun. What a difference a year makes as his first outing he allowed zero runs and he owns a 50% K rate and .40 WHIP. It is a heck of a start to the season and really changes my perspective of him. Soto with a 0.0 ERA good K9 and . 67 WHIP is dominant as well. He struggled with strikes in the cold in the first inning of his first start and since then has just been pounding the zone with great results so far. Some 100mph heaters is nice to see as well. Hill for his pro debut has been sensational so far. He has a 50% K rate and .82 WHIP in the 7 innings he has pitched. He has given up just one run each game for a 1st year rookie at A ball that is impressive. Hope the Twins keep grabbing HS arms in the draft.
  12. Dman
    Yeah the minor league report is my favorite thing to read as well because there generally are positives to talk about among the four teams playing. It looks like they got mixed up talking about the Kernals in the Windsurge section as well. I watched most of the games so I could understand what “really” happened, but it was a tough read for me. Since I watch or keep track of box scores not a huge deal for me, but if you don’t do that I think you could be very confused reading this one.
  13. Dman
    Amick has been impressing me with his approach at the plate to start the year. He was so feared by the Skycarp that they walked him with runners in scoring position because he has been so clutch in those situations. Taking walks is important as he isn’t expanding the zone and he had three of them in his first four at bats. Unfortunately he K’d in his next two at bats, but I just like that his approach has been sound as I had concerns he might be a K machine. He is showing good patience with a 20% walk rate. While he might not be as flashy Caden Kendle has a 1.000 OPS to start the season and his underlying stats look really good with a K rate below 20 and a fairly normalized BABIP of .360 so his .304 batting average seems close to sustainable. Still working on SSS, but he seems to be one of the better bats along with Amick. Bowen has looked really good on the mound so far. If he can stop giving up HR’s he looks like he could be something. Maybe the next big something. Can’t give up a HR every game though.
  14. Dman
    You can look at Carpenter’s outing in different ways. The positives are no earned runs allowed and a 100% K rate or 27/9 using the other stat. The fastball was up to 95 and he threw a lot of breaking and offspeed stuff, unfortunately control was lacking. The negative is he has a WHIP of 3 giving up a double and two walks and it took 36 pitches to get out of one inning. So it looks like there is a fair bit to work on. Finding a good chase pitch for strike three or something that will weakly be put in play would help him excel. Amick is making me look like an idiot at least so far this season. While the K rate remains high as predicted his contact in zone has been better than I thought it would be. It is early but as of right now he clearly is the most dangerous hitter on that Kernals team.
  15. Dman
    Really nice to see Schobel off to a good start. I still think he has a sneaky good hit tool, but will have to wait and see this year. Gonzales has been making good hard contact to start the year and that is key to get his slugging up to help his OPS. Hopefully the balls continue to find holes, but with a .500 BABIP some of his numbers are going to come down. More extra base hits and he will be on his way to the next level. I liked how Bengard looked in the game I watched him. His stuff has really nice movement and he might have found the out pitch that he lacked last year. He has the stuff to move up fairly fast if he can maintain good control of the zone. I guess zero hits beats 11K's but I thought Rodriguez from Milwaukee's high A club deserved pitcher of the week. Our guys couldn't do much of anything against him. Gonzales with a laser down the line for a double and then a bloop single scored him eventually. A little unlucky there. The movement on his pitches was a thing of beauty. Still Bengard with no hits and 6 K's is very impressive stuff. Hope he keeps the K's coming and gets a call to AA fairly soon.
  16. Dman
    Hall seems like the same old Hall from last year. Gives up too many hits and Home runs. It is an amazing change up but he uses it too much IMO that it eventually gets hit. He needs something more. Not sure what but there is time to find it. i was low man on Amick but in his small sample size despite having a 40% K rate he also has a 1.200 OPS. I still have my concerns about the swing and miss and AA will be his true test, but it is nice to see him swinging the bat well. Gabby looks very dialed in this year. If he continues to be this focused he might be the best hitter on that team. Not certain he has the plate discipline to succeed, but his contact skills have been very, very good in this small sample. DeBarge has great contact skills as well, but he hits it on the ground to the shortstop about 70% of the time. I don’t see that approach working out well in the long run. He needs to get the ball in the air somehow. He is tough to K though. Winokur in the three hole really hurt the team as he didn’t look good at the plate yesterday and killed several rallies. I would move him down the order. I really like his defense to start the year, but contact hasn’t been great IMO. Can’t wait until the weather warms up and players get more comfortable. Windy cold weather makes for mixed results.
  17. Dman
    That was an amazing first start for Hill. The HR spoiled things a bit but my o my no walks and7 K's in 4 innings that's a fantastic start for the 19 year old Hill. Throwing almost 98 for a left hander is a cherry on top. I liked the pick when the Twins made it and I like it even more now with how much he has improved. Doktorczyk was pretty wild but, he made pitches when he had to. Hopefully the control improves as the weather improves. Hidalgo pitched better than I expected and with his fastball around 95 it seems like he has a chance to be something. Personally I see reliever in his future but he had a nice start on Saturday. Prielipp had guys at two strikes but didn't put them away. If he just tightens that up a bit his line would look much better. Cold weather seems to impact control. He had batters reeling he just needed to put them away. Doncon with the big HR and a couple of walks. Need to keep an eye on him as his bat could be special. DeBarge needs to get under pitches and stop hitting them on the ground if he wants to move up. He has good contact skills but everything is on the ground. If he can change that he has a good chance to move up. Ferrar behind that plate and a good game offensively. Need to keep an eye on him as well. CR is a fun team to watch.
  18. Dman
    Yeah the cold weather really makes the first month of the season stats tough to translate. Some do just fine in the cold others do not. Soto couldn't find his control in the first inning and as he warmed up he looked better each inning. The standout was the pitcher from the other team Rodriguez. His stuff had so much break\movement our hitters were helpless against him. His 11K's prove it. At just 19 years old the Brewers have a real weapon there. He looked much better than Soto in this game but he couldn't match Soto's 100mph fastball. I guess as they move up levels we'll see how their stuff plays but I was very, very impressed with Rodriguez. While I have generally been disappointed with Gonzalas's approach he and DeBarge looked like the best hitters on the team in this one. Gabby was the only one to get a big hit off of Rodriguez and he looked good at the plate all game IMO. DeBarge got on base three times although two were considered error's He makes contact but hoping for more balls in the air at some point. Still it looks like he can make contact with just about anything. Bengard's stuff looks really good, really tough to hit and he didn't give up a hit. I was a bit down on him last year because of the low K rate, but if he can put guys away like he did last night I think he has a good chance to make it. AA is the true test but he looked good and is off to a good start. That Cedar Rapids lineup is gonna be tough on pitcher's. They all are good contact hitters just needing to maybe be a bit more patient at times. Not sure if the pitching they have there will be good enough, but the lineup is must watch.
  19. Dman
    Very nice Summary of those newly drafted players. Diaw is an interesting player. As stated he likely fell a little because of injuries and I like his potential behind the dish and with the bat. We'll know more after his first full year. Kendle is gamer as well. Really loved his game last year even though a SSS. I was hoping for an arm pick 4. There were some interesting ones still left there, but the Twins seem to feel they can find arms late. I know they are looking for more bats so while it made sense I would have went an arm at pick 4 and or 5. I'm not sure what to think of Ferrer in his small sample, but wasn't overly impressed. Again until after they have a full year it is hard to say how they might do. I sure hope Jones is the real deal. Always nice to have to have one of those arms picked in the first ten rounds to make a big impression early. Also hoping Carpenter can find some more velocity and become a dangerous lefty. Like I said I would have liked to have seen more arms taken earlier but with Hill, Jones and Carpenter that might be enough to carry this class.
  20. Dman
    Matthews was very efficient throwing 5 innings on 57 pitches to Adams 2.2 innings on 53 pitches. Zebby looked in control and the batters seemed so frustrated being down 0-2 all the time. He just kept throwing strikes and it seemed like they wanted to make him work so they didn't swing early all that much. It didn't work out well for them IMO. The whole Saints team had lot's of good at bats making their pitchers work and they drew 10 walks. It paid to be patient and players laid off of some tough pitches. Approaches were very good for the most part all night. Was not impressed with Cartaya. It looked like he was trying to be patient but the swing just looks stiff to me with too much swing and miss. Feels like a long way to with the bat IMO but it was cold out there so maybe when the weather warms he'll look better? This is going to be a fun team to watch. Probably more fun than watching the Twins.
  21. Dman
    You have a lot of good takes and I have thumbed up many of your posts. I get you are more realist than hopeful with numbers generally backing you up. I's nice to have different takes on the site to get you thinking different ways and most times I appreciate your analysis. I just didn't like the comp for this one and didn't see the evidence to back it up.
  22. Dman
    I don't think either of us felt he was Jenkins, just not Cavaco. Technically if Winokur could match Jenkins contact skills at the plate I would argue he would be better than Jenkins as I feel he has better speed and more position flexibility. However, Guys that don't come in with good contact skills generally don't develop into great contact hitters so that would take something extraordinary happening, but one can still dream since he just turned 20. Right now I see him more of a power over hit type profile, but we'll see what he does this year. Feels a bit ;like a Willie Castro comp to me right now with a chance to have a better hit tool.
  23. Dman
    Agreed you did not say Winokur was a non prospect, but that is why I don't see it as a good comp because ultimately that is what Cavaco was. Rooker was 22 coming out of college and old for the class. It took him a long time to become dominant in the SEC. That was my point. Winokur was only 19 last year and won't be 22 for three more professional seasons. That's a lot of time to get better just like college players do. The failure rate for prospects is like 90 to 95 percent so the odds are decent betting on Winokur to fail, but it seems way, way to early to compare him to Cavaco. Winokurs K rate was 28% last year if was say 3 points lower at 25% would that change what you think? He wasn't that far off what is considered an OK number for a power hitter. If he walked a tick more and got to a 10% walk rate I'd say he has solid potential. I agree his hit tool is the weakest tool he has right now and without his hot streak hitting HR's last year his OPS would look worse, but again for year one I think he did really well considering he had so much to work on at the plate. IMO he has three years yet to get to where college drafted guys come in so we should give him more time to grow into his body before getting too critical.
  24. Dman
    I get where you are coming from with the K rate, but I think your comp is way off. That is also an incredibly pessimistic view given last year was Winokurs first full season in Pro ball and he did better than many college bats as a teenager. In Cavaco's entire career he never sniffed the .760 OPS that Winokur had in his first full year. We all know high K rates can be tough to overcome, but I can think of two players right now who I gave up on at the higher levels with high K rates in, Rooker and Wallner. Both players have managed high OPS's at the MLB level despite the K concerns. Putting Winokur in the Cavaco bucket after his first pro year is quite the bold statement and while the sample size is still relatively small I don't see much to back that claim up at this time and the odds of it happening seem very low to me. A better comp would be McCusker. They are both tall athletic players with good power and K rate issues that they may or may not overcome but McCusker is already at AAA and Winokur has lot's of time to refine his approach and end up in a better spot than McCusker. If it were me I'd wait at least another year if not two to pronounce Winokur a non prospect. The ghost of Rooker would say give him even more time than that.
  25. Dman
    It is an awesome rotation when you include Lewis in there. That makes 5 legitimate guys who could reasonably start at the MLB level. They also have Prielipp in the wings at AA as sixth guy granted he will be building up, but nice to have that kind of depth. Culpepper if he gets rolling makes for seven deep. Some of those arms seem destined for the pen as they can’t all start, but that is a good problem to have.
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