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Dman

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Everything posted by Dman

  1. Dman
    It wasn't pretty, but Adams did enough for the Twins to win another game against a really good team. I had the Twins losing this series, but I am going to be wrong. Gotta say I don't think I have seen a pitcher this snake bit in a while. He got to two strike counts a lot and Tampa hitters just stuck their bats out on good pitches and managed to make things happen. He gave up hard contact too, but it's not like he caught a lot of breaks. I haven't been a real believer in Adams. The stuff seems pretty average, but he does place it well. I like him better as a pen arm, but he might prove me wrong. Today he looked poised and while his WHIP, ERA and K rate all took hits he kept going at guys and in the end it all worked out. Congrats to him on his debut. Hopefully the best is yet come.
  2. Dman
    An amazing turn around from last year for Gonzalez. It doesn't seem to matter where they are putting the ball he is hitting it. I still think the fact he isn't swinging at so much stuff out of the zone is helping him. He is back to top 10 prospect status for me again. Right now I'd have him at number 5 mainly because he is the worst defender out of that grouping. He might be lower than that depending on what Raya and Priellipp do the rest of this year but clearly top 10. He just needs to ride this streak into AAA and he will be one step away.
  3. Dman
    The 4 walks and only three K's dampens my enthusiasm for Raya's outing some, but yeah just nice to see him go 6 innings and keep runs off the board. If he can truly turn things around in the second half it really, really helps with the pitching depth outlook for the Twins. I don't know what more to say about Gonzalez except that I think Mariners fans are going to be upset with that Polanco trade. Gabby still has to make it, but he seems to be covering every part of the zone and his eye at the plate has dramatically improved IMO. I wanted him traded last year. I guess I can eat my crow now. That AA team is thick with solid bats. They lost Schobel and Sabato and continue to keep getting hits. 7 of 9 hitters at AA have OPS's in the high 700's to 900's on that team. We have hitter's hopefully we can get more arms. I know Jenkins homer was the highlight but I am just as impressed that he took 3 walks. They didn't want to pitch to him and he didn't expand the zone just took his walks. That is nice to see because they'll know they have to throw in the zone to get him out if they can that is.
  4. Dman
    Nice to see Prielipp with a good game. He didn't put too many runners on this outing and his K rate was elite. The only knock I would have is he got involved in some long at bats and eventually ended up walking guys. He went right after guys though and pitched well. Hopefully more of this moving forward.
  5. Dman
    I like Ohl, but the low K rate has always held him back. It seems like maybe he has fixed that? He can throw strikes as he was sort of Zebby before Zebby was Zebby. Very stingy on walks although he gave up a fair number of hits. It will be interesting to see how he handles AAA. I'm not sold yet that he is starter material but see no reason he couldn't be a good to great reliever. Need more time to see if that K rate stays around or above 9 per 9. Giving up less contact is the only thing holding him back. Nice to see him on this list. Klein has got me excited. Not sure if he can keep this up or not. I am hoping he can and I think he could be a mid rotation arm if he can keep the K rate up and the WHIP around 1.00. Would like to see what he can do at AAA. If this is who he is he looks like the next arm up IMO. I haven't followed Chaney much as he is old for the level. Since he is doing well they should move him up to AA. I love Rozek. I feel like he is under rated. I still think he belongs in AAA, but he has really helped out the staff in AA and maybe he gets more innings this way. I still believe he could be MLB reliever, but I guess he will really need to put up some awesome numbers to get noticed. My man Bohorquez gave me a heart attack to start the year. Couldn't throw strikes and gave plenty of runs. He didn't look close to the pitcher he was last year. Happy to see him righting the ship. still too many walks but other than that he is looking good. Hope he just keeps on getting better the rest of the year. Would be nice if he got bumped to high A later in the year but we'll see. Bohorquez, Soto and Hill are all young arms I am hoping turn out in the next couple of years. Would be nice if this list had Raya and or Prielipp number one, but glad too see some arms having success.
  6. Dman
    I don't disagree that much but if you look at what might be available at the deadline I'd think teams will have several "better" options. I guess it would come down to price versus what you think you are getting. Paddack had a great Month of May. If that is who he primarily is that is very valuable. There are only so many teams and so many deals that can be made. I just think he looks like someone on the lower end of the scale if other teams do sell "their" guys. If they don't that could lift his value. It is hard to know what can and can't get done at the deadline as we don't always know who truly is available. If he hadn't fallen back here recently I would say yes worth quit a bit, but the other thing against him is he hasn't been a durable arm over his career. Teams will be looking at consistency and durability when making these deals as they plan to compete late in the season. He seems riskier that is why I have rated lower.
  7. Dman
    I don't think Bader and Paddack bring back much. If Bader could knock down a few more home runs and up that average a little he could be very valuable, but once again his bat is dragging down his value. Paddack has pitched poorly, really well and then poorly again and might be back to pitching well. I would try to sell him as an elite pen arm\long man to teams. His lack of consistency will bring down his price if anyone wants him at all. Coulombe should fetch something good. He has litterly been the definition of shut down lefty. They brought him into the toughest situations and he has wriggled them out of a lot of tough spots. That feels like top 10 prospect territory to me. Castro also should bring back great value. his near .800 OPS puts him just outside the top 50 for qualified MLB hitters, he can play multiple positions well and give you a decent bat. If you want injury insurance for your playoff run I'd say Castro is a better version of what Zobrist was and he commanded a lot when traded. One of Larnach and Wallner need to go. Whether it is Rodriguez or Gonazalez or Keaschael or eventually Jenkins. Someone is taking that spot. I don't know if they can get anything for him at the deadline. Might have to wait for the offseason but someone has to go and I think Larnach is the one. While I know Lewis can hurt his hamstring tying his shoe. Selling at a low point with so many years of control left for so little money just doesn't make sense. At worst he is just a sunk cost at this point at best he rebounds and the Twins have a good cheap player. I don't love the idea of trading Duran, but if he can get one or two differencing making assets I would do it. Not all that long ago the Cubs traded their number one Prospect to the Yankee's for a dominant lefty closer. I would think Duran alone or Duran and pieces should be able to get something similar. He is in his prime. It is a big durable body that can throw 100 if he wants to. He has 3 years of control left counting this year. That should command a lot.
  8. Dman
    I wouldn't say Prielipp has preformed really well at AA. For a guy who is supposed to be a bat miss-er he has give up 47 hits in 37 innings pitched. That leads to a whopping 1.46 WHIP. That's not even close to really good IMO. It is a borderline disaster. Yeah the ERA and FIP look shiny and maybe he has been a bit "unlucky", but if you've got good stuff you don't give up that many hits and have that high of WHIP. He has plenty of time to get things going, but he has never pitched a full season and he needs to get a lot better if he is going to be an answer for the Twins in the near future. I wouldn't want to bank on him as a starter with those numbers and arm history. It might all work out in the end but the odds are just as high that it doesn't. Soto and Hill haven't pitched much, but I like both arms. Still you want more numbers there as arms fail at a high rate. They should draft two more high school arms if they can. I don't know that Lewis is a major league caliber arm. Maybe if he can get that knuckle ball to work he can do it, but the fastball is too slow. He has an ERA of 7 and WHIP 2.0 right now. So that's not even close to MLB ready. I like Morris, but he is losing his shine for me. It's a slightly too low K rate and again a WHIP of 1.61 at AAA. Can't imagine what that WHIP would be in the Majors. He is currently injured and is going to need to find something extra to K more guys and give up fewer hits. Culpepper I like as well but has been injured so much hard to tell if he can remain a starter. He looks more like a pen arm to me. Klein could be the next big thing. The numbers all look good he just needs to sustain them. Last year his numbers fell off later in the year. We'll see if he can keep it up but yes an arrow up on Klein. I think he is an arm you can feel good about. Ohl seems like he might have turned a corner with K rate. Still nervous as he can get hit hard at times still a wait and see for me. Bowen gives up way to many HR's again a likely reliever. He needs to get his K rate up. I don't know how Lawyerson does it. His stuff doesn't look that great to me, but the numbers are rock solid. WHIP a tick high, but that is nitpicking. He likely is better than I think he is. Same for Adams. The stuff doesn't look that great but pretty solid numbers. Could use a bit higher K rate. Still likely just a number 5 starter at his best and I think he could be an effective pen arm as well. Bottom line is they need more arms, lots more. Very few arms performing at anything close to an elite level. Right now I'd say based on numbers that Hill and Klein would be the only two performing close to elite. The rest might come around, but again I wouldn't bank on it. Get more arms would be my plan.
  9. Dman
    My draft crush is Steele Hall, but I think I like what you did there grabbing Bremner. You look at the Twins system right now and you could argue the top five prospects are bats in Jenkins, Rodriguez, Keaschal, Culpepper and maybe Gonzalez at number 5. That's a lot of bats and not much for arms. The arms that are highly rated in Raya and Prielipp have not performed well this year and both have durability issues making them question marks as starters. It kind of feels like they need to rebalance the system IMO. They had that pitcher draft in 2021 where they took Petty in the first round. We never got to see most of those arms because they all got traded, but Petty was doing well in AA this year. Povich was starting for the Orioles although not well at least not early in the year. At any rate even though a lot of those arms got traded away they were good assets to have as well. I think it depends on what falls to the Twins at 16 as there are going to be some very good position players at that spot. I have them taking a bat with their first pick but after that why not double double down on arms? Most of the bats they have taken in the second and third and fourth rounds haven't amounted to much. There generally are some nice high school arms in those rounds and some polished college arms as well. Also if they are sellers at the deadline it might be easier to pry bats away from teams rather than arms. So if you think you will be adding bats to the system at the deadline all the more reason to go arms early and late in the draft. I have seen Cleveland go arm heavy in several drafts and other teams have done it as well. Not sure how deep the pitching depth goes in this one, but I would consider stacking up arms. As usual I like both picks for the Twins. Bremner would be good value and meet a need were the Twins to pick him but I really like Hall and I like Summerhill as well. If Taylor lasts to pick 36 he would be great value there too although with the limited defensive profile not a great fit or use of a high end pick IMO, but if the bat is as good as advertised it likely won't matter. Draft is almost here. Keep the articles coming Jamie!!
  10. Dman
    @DocBauer Loved your post. That is exactly how I remember it as well. I didn't hate the pick, but there sure seemed to be a few too many questions to feel confident about it.
  11. Dman
    The only thing holding Klein back last year was K rate and a tick better control. As noted he has a strong big body so he looks like someone who could handle a starters load. Personally if this is who he is I like him better than Morris. Morris had a better ERA at Double A last year but when you look at xFIP they are almost the same. Also Morris's K rate has continued to go down from High A to AAA whereas Klein's K rate has gotten better from A ball to AA. Won't know how good he will be until he gets to AAA, but again if he can keep these kind of performances up he might be next in line after Festa, Matthews and SWR. Still early, but the numbers look good right now.
  12. Dman
    Clemens is going to be 30 years old next year and he hasn't played a ton. His highest OPS until this year was .705. The Twins Acquired him for cash considerations so if they get something in return for him I would do it. They have Jullien in AAA and Keaschal should be back at some point. They'll have Lee, Lewis and Correa still there. They could bring up Fitzgerald like they did before as well. Next year they'll have Schobel and possibly Culpepper if he keeps preforming as well as he has been. I think they'll be OK without Clemens.
  13. Dman
    Sure for guys like Vasquez, Clemens, France I would say take what you can get. For Castro and Coulombe I'd want more than that. I wouldn't cave on those two. If Bader could start hitting again I think he could return something decent as well. He might just because of his defense and he can hit Home runs. Paddack I don't know. He is still a starter and he has pitched pretty well since mid May. Should be worth more than lotto's. To your point anything is better than nothing, but if you go in with that frame of mind you won't get much. Sometimes you have to say no and mean it so that next time teams know they need to pony up if they want the player. If you miss out on a Lotto not too big of deal IMO. They don't hit very often. It is usually a game of chicken at the deadline. Win some, lose some. If the other team won't meet the value you have for the player then I think it is fine to say no even if you get nothing in the end. It at least sets a bar and helps you not to get lowballed.
  14. Dman
    Man Gonzalez is just going crazy at AA. This is supposed to be the jump that stalls your development and he just keeps on hitting. If he keeps it up they should send him to AAA at the end of July. Just crazy what he is doing at 21 years old. K rate at AA 10% Walk rate 10%. BABIP is high so regression is coming, but still those are really nice numbers all the way around for AA.
  15. Dman
    I wouldn't want to go the total rebuild route. That is such a long painful thing to get through. We can see that when healthy this team has the pitching to compete. The hitting just hasn't been dangerous enough. If they could get a great deal for Duran and a few other pieces from the expiring contracts that is the route I would take. You can't truly probably ever replace Duran especially as he heads into his prime, but you can probably get close enough. So I could see moving him for the right deal. I would hope that it would be enough to move the needle in other areas. We still have Keaschal, Rodriguez, likely Culpepper and Jenkins not too far away. The way Gonzalez is hitting he might not be far away. Guys are coming but we need another elite bat or two to lengthen the lineup. Not sure how to find those guys, but bottom line this team doesn't feel too far away if they can get a little younger and find more depth I think they can get over the hump.. If they collect enough assets maybe they can trade for another young big bat or arm. With a few lucky breaks I think this team could be at the top again. I wouldn't go full tear down.
  16. Dman
    I think we've talked about this before but just to reinforce the point look at what Detroit did at last years deadline. They sold everything they could and they still made a run at the end with their young players. Players they primarily drafted in Greene, Keith, Torkelson, Dingler, Meadows, Skubal etc. I get that young players don't just come up and replace veteran production, but you also have to realize just how valuable they are when they hit and how they can lift your team. Detroit got rid of the vets on one year deals. They let their young players play and now they look like one of the better teams in baseball. Granted it took some time for some of those players. It didn't all just happen last year, but the point is you need to build young cores in the minors and you do that with volume because not every player works out. You do that by moving assets you likely aren't going to keep or you feel priced out of at the deadline or offseason. The Twins are just stuck in the middle. It is time to trade in assets for younger players and try to build something like Detroit.
  17. Dman
    I agree on setting a bar. If all teams want to give are lottery tickets or maybe slightly higher it isn't going to help much. Might as well play things out. Need to be in the top 5 of lists and top 10 of other teams depending on depth of the system. Need players that at least appear to be difference makers and or at least likely to be contributors. otherwise there isn't much reason to let them go other than saving money.
  18. Dman
    I have been on the seller train since the teams ugly start. When the starting pitching and pen are good this team looks pretty tough but with the all the arm injuries and the offense not really clicking it seems unlikely they make a run. They have 4 good players on expiring contracts and I would try and get something for all of them. It seems a year early to unload Duran, but if a team decided to overpay and they got things they needed I could see that happening. It is just that Duran is a sure things closer so you'd be looking at another teams number 1 or 2 prospects to make a deal IMO. I am just not sure how many teams would be wiling to give up what it would take to get Duran since he effectively has three years of control left. I looked at trading Topa but with his low K rate and mediocre numbers he has more value to the Twins with his low salary and solid effectiveness than anything he would likely return. I don't think they could or would deal him. Stewart has the stuff playoff teams like, but with his injury history and lack of innings year to year I just don't see a team taking on that kind of risk and doing an overpay. Again he likely has more value on his lower salaried contract for the Twins than anything they could get in trade. If a team gave a return of bullpen ace with three years control remaining I would jump at it considering his injury history, but I doubt it happens. It would be a deal comparable to Jax or Duran and I think teams would prefer Jax or Duran to Stewart. There is no real reason to trade Jax right now. He doesn't cost that much and he has control left. I guess some type of overpay might get it done, but I doubt the Twins would want to move on. Not that you can trust trade values but Vasquez has a negative value on their site. I am sure the Twins would love to dump that salary but the return would be almost nothing. I don't see France bringing back much either unless a team really believes his clutch hitting with runners in scoring position is for real. Then he could be a decent backup for 1st base, DH or pinch hitter. I have heard the team loves him but if they could get a decent asset they should. I'd also trade Clemens if anyone was interested. He has cooled off considerably and he doesn't look like a long term fixture for this team anyway. Not sure if anyone would be interested but if they could get something they should. I would try to unload as many players as they can for assets with an eye toward starting pitching prospects. With Paddack gone after this year and Ober stumbling they'll need Festa, Matthews and SWR as possible starting rotation pieces. You can say that next year they would have Raya or Prielipp as potential depth but both arms have had poor results so far this year. Morris might be OK, but he has been good one game horrible the next so not certain he can be "counted on" So if they are sellers they need to address that as best they can. A stud hitter wouldn't hurt either, but when you look at our top 30 we have hitters on the way (i.e prospects 1 through 4 are hitters) but not much for arms. I'd sell everything I can if the deals make sense from a value perspective. The Twins need to strengthen the pool of younger players to keep this team moving forward.
  19. Dman
    I guess I hadn't realized that Chivili is now a full time pitcher instead of a Shortstop. I guess they think he just wasn't going to hit or he might be a better pitcher than hitter? Other than K rate the numbers look pretty good. Would be awesome if he turned into a difference making arm. Really happy to see Jenkins with a great game. Seeing a little power was even nicer. Sure hope he keeps it going.
  20. Dman
    I know it is just the DSL, but if you follow the box scores there, you will notice the young pitchers get beat up pretty bad. Especially the the 16 to 17 year old's. Santiago Castellanos is just 16 years old and has been dominant so far. Having no walks in a game is a feat in itself at that age, but no runs and no hits with 7 K's is special. Doing that as one of the youngest pitchers in that league I don't think I have ever seen someone do that. Granted this is the DSL, but given his fantastic start he looks like he could be a special player. Oliveras with another dominant outing. Man. when I went to Beloit he couldn't get out of the first inning and then he pitches 6 no run innings last night. Wish I could have seen something like that. The walk rate is still a bit high and it seems like it is because he likes to play low in the zone and sometimes he doesn't get those close low strike calls and or hitters don't chase. Fangraphs believes he gets added to the 40 man at the end of this year because the stuff is just too good. I am not so sure. We'll see what the rest of the season looks like. Still it is good to see him doing well and while I still am not sure he makes it as a starter he has great fastball for the pen. While I get the Conner Prielipp love the results this year are not matching the hype IMO. It is odd to me that the two pitchers with supposedly the best stuff in the system give up so many hits. Raya gives up hits and runs like crazy. While Prielipp hasn't given up as many runs he has given up 47 hits in just 37 innings and his WHIP is a horrible 1.46. His K rate is more pedestrian at AA as well. That doesn't equate to bat missing stuff in my opinion. I get it. He is still working on stuff and getting his legs\arms back under him as he hasn't pitched many innings his entire career, but there seems like a lot of work to be done with sequencing and control. I guess the most important thing for him is to just get through the season healthy, but he has me losing a little faith right now. Nice to see Jullien with a big hit and getting his confidence back. He has a near 1.000 OPS in June. I'd give him some more time at AAA, but if the Twins are sellers at the deadline there should be room for him on the 26 man. I was about to write a week or two ago that Fedko was slumping and fading and that his hot start was more mirage than reality. He has really picked it up this last week and is real close to that .900 OPS he has been sporting most of this year. That new found power is going to give him a chance at the MLB level. He just needs to stay consistent and he could get a shot.
  21. Dman
    If they could get Miler or Crawford for a reliver I would do that deal. I am betting the Phillies won't be letting those two go easily though. I would bet they would be more inclined to give up the catcher who is years away and could flame out at the higher levels and or Chace who has control problems. They also might want to try and give us Nori and or Burkholter who are also risky and further away. I would hold out for Miller or Crawford as they have plenty of high end tools and already proving themselves at the higher levels. I love Duran and would miss him terribly but the Twins need some new blood and a high end guy would make it worth giving up that golden arm which they won't be able to afford much longer anyway.
  22. Dman
    I was a pretty big Klein fan in 2023 and then in 2024 it looked like he needed something more to be more than just filler. He has had some tough games but the overall numbers do look really good at a pretty tough level. K9 has really improved and FIP and xFIP pretty much match his ERA so he is not getting lucky he just been good. If he is topping out at 97 all the better. If he can continue to dominate like this the Twins might have something.
  23. Dman
    I was really starting to doubt myself on the Rosario belief after all the swing and miss early in the season and a not great year last year. As noted by others he is really coming around after a slow start. AA is a huge jump no doubt about it but he was MVP of his league when at High A so I thought maybe he would handle it better\faster. Just like Schobel it looks like he is getting back to the hitter he was. I really gave up on Gonzalez last year. Thought he was way over hyped. I have kept waiting for him to stop "getting lucky", but it looks like he is just a really good hitter. He has been a doubles machine and his eye at the plate has really improved IMO and I think that is leading him to better pitches to drive. If he keeps this up the next couple of months he'll be in AAA. Nice to see Culpepper keep doing what he always does and seeing him already adding power to his game makes his future even brighter. He is a good low ball hitter, but he does chase down there as well. His defense looks really good the times I have watched him. Looks like a really nice pick the Twins made last year.
  24. Dman
    Yeah I agree with you on Serrano. The Twins DSL team currently has 4 players with OPS's over 1.000. Castillo (1.357), Taveras (1.126), Serrano (1.108) and Reyes (1.053). It's great to see so many bats doing really well at that level but we know from experience those number don't mean much. A few years back Mercedes and Rodriguez were putting up similar numbers and they have fallen pretty flat in A ball. Mercedes has done well at the FCL level which is no small feat but still is struggling at A ball. They are still young at 20 years old, but the shine is already off both players with Rodriguez out of the top 30 and Mercedes falling. It's not like we are asking for a lot just something approaching a .700 OPS would be nice, but a .500 and 600 OPS makes it hard to see them succeeding after their first two years in the states. Yep there's still time for them to turn things around, but it just shows how inflated those DSL numbers are compared to the competition they will face once they get over here. Granted I Would rather see the higher OPS's from those player's than lower OPS's, but as a measure of success we won't know much until they perform in A ball. Still a long way to go after that but if they conquer A ball at a relatively young age at least there is hope for a future. So yeah @DocBauer I hope they all keep it up all the way up.
  25. Dman
    Agreed. Happy to see his stats tank to some degree if he can gain a better K rate or manage more weak contact on his pitches. I think a good to great changeup would really make a difference but I wonder if the somewhat odd angle he throws at will tunnel well with that pitch. At any rate he needs to refine a few things. Not a lot as he is pretty successful with what he currently has, but at the MLB level you need to have some extra tricks up your sleave to throw at guys to get outs when you need them. Hopefully he finds that extra something that make him a difference maker.
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