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Richie the Rally Goat

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Everything posted by Richie the Rally Goat

  1. Richie the Rally Goat
    Correct, but he’s not a manager. He doesn’t make decisions about how the Twins are run. He’s an instrument just like the players are. Buxton, Correa, Provus, none of them set the budget, or have any insight, they repeat what they are told and share their opinions.
  2. Richie the Rally Goat
    I’m super excited about this team, and I think the complementary bullpen pieces brought in by the FO were good moves to solidify a very good top end of the pitching staff. The Twins may never again field as good of a team as appear poised to field for 2024, and that they didn’t push their chips in to make the two big moves that would transition them from post season contenders to World Series favorites is a horrible shame reminiscent of 2009 and 2010. they hid behind a bs excuse about a TV contract that they knew they were getting something. They didn’t know about Amazon, but they knew they were getting something from the MLB, or some TV contract, and they knew 2025 was going to net them some amount in the MLB grand scheme. im not pissed off about the money, I’m pissed off about the ownership’s plan to be conservative!
  3. Richie the Rally Goat
    Agreed, how I think of it is… If the FO/Ownership had framed it as “we believe the core is in place, and we’re going to supplement it with complementary pieces” it would have been true, given the impression of lower spending, without pegging the payroll to income. Pegging it to income made it a lie when they signed the Tv deal but still didn’t spend it.
  4. Richie the Rally Goat
    Quoted below is DSP from the Athletic, bolding is mine: “That said, it’s not a perfect outcome for anyone. It’s a one-year deal for us. Some of it was in our control, much of it was out of our control. Some of it is a product of the bankruptcy system. And as we think about it from our perspective, it’s a balancing act. You balance economics, distribution and production quality, and local priorities vs. national priorities.” I heard one of the talking heads, maybe Gleeman have a theory about this means the MLB is trying to launch a streaming service with all of the teams that were on Bally for 2025 and the League was pressuring the Twins to accept a 1 year deal without streaming rights. if this is the case, they were likely hamstrung in negotiations
  5. Richie the Rally Goat
    Agreed, no way ERod’s clock starts in 2024 unless they absolutely have to, which means Buxton, Martin, Kiersey, and Prato were all together in a fiery car accident during spring training. Brock Stewart should be the primary setup man for Duran. Why the heck would a top 25 starting pitcher with a 3.5 ERA who threw 144 innings last year get moved to the bullpen for two guys each with a 5 ERA? If Ober isn’t the number 3 starter in the rotation, it’s because he’s the number 2, number 1 due to injury, or he’s on the IL himself.
  6. Richie the Rally Goat
    This is what I believe to be the most likely situation
  7. Richie the Rally Goat
    Agreed! And if Santana actually is a leader in the field/at the plate, something went horribly wrong
  8. Richie the Rally Goat
    Lopez 185 innings 3.5 era 1.15 WHIP Ober 170 innings 3.7 era 1.1 WHIP Ryan 180 innings 3.9 era 1.15 WHIP A very optimistic yet possible outcome, all top 20 pitchers, still the best top 3 rotation in all of baseball
  9. Richie the Rally Goat
    in WHIP and K/BB they’ve shown ability to deliver extremely good results at limiting base runners. Home runs tend to vary widely, but keeping runners off the path is a great recipe for success. im bought-in on top 3. If López, Ryan, and Ober are in the 180ish innings, Paddack can get 100 innings and DeSclafani doesn’t throw 100 innings, I very much believe this rotation is as advertised. Health is key, I think it’s possible
  10. Richie the Rally Goat
    I agree, by rate stats Ober was a top 25ish starting pitcher. He’d have been a front of rotation starter on a bad rotation.
  11. Richie the Rally Goat
    Ugh is the right word! is Paddack or DeSclafani injured/setback? I’d rather have Festa or Raya in the rotation than either of those two, but starting the season with them might be too quick.
  12. Richie the Rally Goat
    looking at WAR, Sonny’s 184 innings bringing 5.3 WAR is a high bar to clear, and it is. Ryan pitched 161, Ober pitched 144. Both could feasibly flirt with 180 innings, and both with top 30 rate stats. That 1.07 WHIP is elite. 5.79 K/BB is fantastic. how much does Paddack, Varland and DeSclafani drop off? Paddack is projected for 2ish WAR 120 innings, 1.21 WHIP, improving over Kenta Varland is projected 119 innings and 1.2 WAR 1.27 WHIP, serviceable to very good 5th starter. If DeSclafani doesn’t have to pitch much… it’s probably going to be another very good pitching season. big if… but I’m bought in
  13. Richie the Rally Goat
    I think Bailey Ober replaces Sonny Gray’s likely output. Last year he put up a 1.07 whip with 25% k rate, 5% bb rate for 2.4 fWAR. 2022 was similar rate stats but shortened. He appears healthy and if he can stay that way, he should surpass 3 fWAR and be a top 20 starting pitcher in ‘24. i think MLR put up the chart on the Twins having the projected best AL pitching staff for ‘24 and 4th in MLB and I believe it.
  14. Richie the Rally Goat
    If Gordon is on his last leg with the Twins (I agree), what value does he bring in trade when everybody else can just wait for him to hit the waiver wire?
  15. Richie the Rally Goat
    The FO has made it a point to raise the floor in the hitting department. Kyle Farmer is an example of that working well, a backstop to re-signing Correa and a very competent hitter and fielder at multiple positions who did just that as a primarily SS where the bar for hitting is lower and Farmer played a backup role. Gallo is prime example of failure in that attempt. There’s 5 guys in triple A that can put up .700 OPS for league minimum and play as good of if not better fielding than Gallo. And they stuck with him too long. they’re both .700 OPS guys, there’s going to be successes and failures, and the part that is hard is knowing when to give up the ghost.
  16. Richie the Rally Goat
    and here I was excited for our first baseman at the end of a Friday night game to trot out to a stage in the CF batters eye and rip off some delicious licks playing 1999’s smash hit “Smooth”
  17. Richie the Rally Goat
    I had wiped Miranda from my memory for some reason! How quickly I forgot! Miranda is likely the “Larnach” for Santana. His 57 wRC+ last year gives a pretty low floor but his career is around 102 and his projections are all around 100. Santana for his career is 116, but his projection is 100, and his last several years have been 100 or below. His floor is higher than Miranda’s, but he doesn’t raise the bar. i don’t really get the Santana signing. Again I don’t hate it either, he at least brings an approach that Gallo didn’t, but it feels like spending for the sake of spending, without actually improving the lineup.
  18. Richie the Rally Goat
    Good point on Yunior. i think you are weighting the coaching aspect very heavily, and considering Popkins has 4 years of professional hitting coach experience compared with Santana’s zero, it’s a bit of a stretch. I’m not saying there’s zero coaching done by Santana, but his impact will be direct on the baseball
  19. Richie the Rally Goat
    The fallback option to Kepler, was realistically Trevor Larnach. For as much grief as Larnach gets on the boards, his career 96 wRC+ isn’t vastly different than Kepler’s 103, for less than 1/10th the price and the potential to develop a better player, or at the least have another guy with options to shuttle. who is Santana’s Larnach? Chris Williams?
  20. Richie the Rally Goat
    100% agreed! Also Kepler is the example of why they hang on too long. 25% of our sample turned their season around to become a net positive on the season. 25% has to be better odds than some/many/most of the individual minor league roster churn moves available to be made at a given time
  21. Richie the Rally Goat
    Yes
  22. Richie the Rally Goat
    True, but also need a strong and deep bullpen regardless of DeScalfini. last year we watched miscast Sands, Winder, and Headrick all collect dust on the roster (occasionally at the same time) for 5 days then end up being thrust into leverage out of necessity. If they want to really compete, they can only have one swing man, or none.
  23. Richie the Rally Goat
    I gotta think Funderburk is dang close to a lock. Desclafini slated for a BP role too? He’s just as likely as Varland
  24. Richie the Rally Goat
    I wonder if DeSclafini starts the season in the rotation pushing Varland to AAA, or if he’s a swing man and pushes Sands and or Winder out. having DeSclafini in the rotation and Varland in AAA gives the a ton of Depth as both Raya and Festa could/should give some big league innings this year, hopefully successful big league innings.
  25. Richie the Rally Goat
    You don’t think that ‘23 would have been a better team had the better hitters received more plate appearances?
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