Chembry

Nathaniel Lowe is also available, and could probably be had for a similar price range. He won a gold glove in 2023 and was a finalist in 2024. He also won a silver slugger in 2022. Career splits show he doesn’t have to be platooned. Career .258/.337/.392 against lefties. OPS+ since 2021 in succession 112, 139, 114, 123, 94 in 2025. Struggled in Washington, but right back to normal production with Boston. He has played at least 140g every year since 2021. Over is career, he has been a consistent 2-4 WAR player, with 2025 being the exception. He isn’t the sexiest name, but would be a solid contributor and lock down 1B for a few years. Lowe doesn’t have the positional flexibility Andujar has, but also isn’t a defensive liability, has a higher career OBP, similar SLG, higher career OPS, and career OPS+. Will also play every day. It will probably take at least a 2 year deal to get him, but it at least stabilizes the position and moves Clemens to utility which he is better suited for.

BBTV basic use is a guide and by no way should be taken as gospel. When trades occur I model them in BBTV to see what the likelihood of an acceptance would be. A few examples: 1. Grayson Rodriguez/Taylor Ward would be rejected by BBTV. 2. Sonny Gray trade would be rejected by BBTV, even after adding $20M cash 3. The Garcia/Oviedo trade would be accepted by BBTV. What really bothers me about BBTV is the people that propose trades of 8 minor leaguers, all in the 2-4 BBTV range for 1 MLB guy. No MLB executive would ever accept a trade like that. In all reality, we don't have any other way of evaluating a trade. Most of us know and understand it's limitations. It's really just a tool. In Buxton's case, his BBTV doesn't reflect his actual value. If you remember back to the player votes for the All-Star game. Buxton had the 4th most votes in MLB behind Judge, Raleigh, and Jose Ramirez. He had more player votes than Skubal, Ohtani, Schwarber, PCA, etc...I am not saying he is better than those guys, but it shows you how he is viewed in MLB. A perennial all-star, top 15-20 player in all of MLB when healthy. Those types of guys are valued very highly.

CJ Culpepper is Rule 5 eligible, not Kaelen Culpepper. Kaelen Culpepper isn’t rule 5 eligible yet. He was just drafted in 2024.

Agreed, ATL just doesn’t have the capital to make that trade. I listened to a couple of Braves podcasts today and they are speculating a package of Hurston Waldrep, JR Ritchie, and Nacho Alvarez seal the deal. Waldrep had a good 2025 and would be a nice addition, but we need bats and Nacho Alvarez isn’t it. I wonder if we could get Rushing from LAD for Buxton? He was a top 20 prospect heading into 2025, but didn’t have a very nice intro to MLB, and he is blocked by Will Smith and Freddie Freeman. But I don’t like even suggesting any of this because I really don’t want to see Buck go anywhere.

I think you are a bit misled on Jett Williams. He has a career 22% K rate in minors, 23% at AAA. While that's not great, it's not terrible would would be just above average in MLB. I did read today that Jett Williams had two throws over 95 mph last year. That was more the the Mets team all of 2025. His arm was only graded at a 50 on MLB pipeline, but 60 on BA. He also has elite speed at >30ft/sec. https://www.mlb.com/mets/news/how-jett-williams-factors-into-mets-plans?t=mets-pipeline-coverage I would prefer Benge as well, but I wouldn't be upset if he was part of the return for Ryan. Especially with his positional flexibility.

I was listening to a couple of podcasts yesterday and took away a few notes: 1. Ken Rosenthal stated on foul territory that he doesn't believe Buxton will waive his no trade clause unless Pablo and Ryan are traded. AJ Pierzynski also stated he doesn't believe Buxton will waive his NTC. 2. Gleeman stated on his podcast that it's unclear if this is stemming from the Dan Hayes piece in the Athletic and just finally making its way to Jeff Passan, or if this is new information.

I have seen graphics of payroll as a percentage of MLB payroll. If I am recalling correctly, I only found 2024 data. Over half of MLB teams spent 40-60% of revenue on payroll. The Twins were right in the middle of the pack spending 47-48% of revenue on MLB payroll. That doesn’t take operating expenses into consideration. The upper end was Dodgers and Mets who spent 70% or more of revenue on MLB payroll. The low end was Marlins, White Sox, Rays, Pirates, Brewers who spent closer to 30% of revenue on payroll.

The other really interesting piece to this trade is that the Angels agreed to the trade and didn’t require any medical evaluation for Rodriguez…Rodriguez himself confirmed it on the foul territory podcast. Other podcasts that I listened to speculated that if the Angels get 150-200 innings out of him over the next 4 years, they come out ahead. Elias is definitely gambling with this trade, but maybe they try to extend Ward?

I agree with you and I continually state that fact to many of the people here on TD. Especially to ones who are ready to cut Roden after 12G in a Twins uniform and 55G overall in MLB. My preference would be to trade for a 1B prospect or sign a FA. If we go the FA route, Lowe would be my preference over any other current FA (other than Alonso, but that isn't happening) However, we have a surplus of OF bats and Kody Clemens as the current starter at 1B. The argument could be made that if Emmanuel Rodriguez (or someone else) pushes his way onto the roster out of spring, another OF bat could be moved around to accommodate if necessary. The most likely of those in the current OF picture would be Roden, because he has experience at 1B. That frees up Clemens to step into the utility role where he is much better suited. Wallner or Larnach will never be a 1B, much to the dismay of many here on TD. The Twins must improve both their offense and defense. The goal is to put the best 9 bats in the lineup without sacrificing defense. With the surplus of OF bats, and the potential upside to many of those bats, that may require some positional flexibility, like moving Roden to 1B to put the best lineup on the field on a daily basis.

Defensive metrics can be a bit funny. Lowe won a GG in 2023 and was a finalist in 2024. He won’t be a defensive liability.

I think $10M is too much for Lowe. His salary last year was $10.5M and the Nationals couldn't find a trade partner for him. My guess is he could be had at $6-8M/yr coming off the worst season of his career. Pure speculation of course, but I think precedence has already been set that $10M is too much.

My first choice would be to trade for a 1B prospect as well, and there are plenty available. Guys like Eldridge. Briceno, Ballesteros, Tre' Morgan, probably Condon or Collier would headline the trade and would probably require Ryan in return. I seriously doubt Basallo is available. In a vacuum, guys like Ryan Clifford, Jonathon Long, Tyler Locklear, Abimelec Ortiz, Triston Casas wouldn't require the likes or Ryan or Lopez to acquire and could help the team.

Roden played 1B in college and summer ball between college seasons. He played more games at first in college than any other single position.

I don’t know…I updated my previous post to say that I don’t follow whoever that is…it showed up on my feed. That’s why I said I don’t know if there is any truth to it.

Don’t know if there is any truth to this…It just showed up on my feed, I don’t follow whoever that is

I agree a consistent losing team will erode a fanbase. But the relocation of the A’s has nothing to do with the team being young. https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5798535/2024/09/27/oakland-as-final-game-coliseum-thompson/ https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/38442355/story-how-all-went-south-las-vegas https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2024/sep/26/oakland-athletics-final-game-john-fisher

I understand your point on 2025. Lowe had a down year for sure. He definitely isn't worth $10M ($13.5M projected arbitration) and that's why he was DFA'd. But if you look at 2021-2024, Lowe's stats are similar, if not better than Arraez in most regards, other than BA. Plus Lowe won a GG at 1st in 2023. For me, it comes down to more power, while maintaining a high OBP, which Lowe has done prior to his stint with the Nats. He went right back with Boston. It just comes down to a difference of opinion. Like I said in a previous post, I would rather have the Twins trade for a young 1B, but I wouldn't be upset with Lowe or Arraez. But I think they could get Lowe cheaper. Arraez Season Team G PA AB HR BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ 2021 MIN 121 479 428 2 0.294 0.357 0.376 0.733 105 2022 MIN 144 603 547 8 0.316 0.375 0.42 0.795 128 2023 MIA 147 617 574 10 0.354 0.393 0.469 0.861 128 2024 2TM 150 672 637 4 0.314 0.346 0.392 0.739 107 Lowe Season Team G PA AB HR BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ 2021 TEX 157 642 557 18 0.264 0.357 0.415 0.771 112 2022 TEX 157 645 593 27 0.302 0.358 0.492 0.851 139 2023 TEX 161 724 623 17 0.262 0.36 0.414 0.775 114 2024 TEX 140 565 486 16 0.265 0.361 0.401 0.762 123

I saw a post on X this morning that Twins sources are indicating a payroll of $100-130M. I have no idea how truthful, how reliable this person is, or even how reliable their source is. I took it with a grain of salt.

What's interesting about Ober's velocity, is that Perkins specifically mentioned (either during TV or radio broadcasts, I can't quite remember) that Ober would consistently hit 92-93 during his bullpen sessions...even late into the season. Why didn't that transfer into games? I think there is more to the story than just mechanics. We know he was dealing with hip issues since spring training last year. I wouldn't be surprised if that lingered even when coming back off the IL in July.

Reese McGuire? I don't think the Cubs want Larnach, but maybe Topa? He is a good defensive catcher.

I appreciate the logic and understand your point. I agree, we shouldn't consider any more 1 year contracts. But I disagree he will have no trade value. That all depends on the contract he signs. If he signs a $9M AAV contract (which probably won't happen), yes he will have no trade value and the Twins should be out. If he signs a $6M AAV, he will have some trade value, especially if the contract has options. The Nationals are out because of his $10M contract, but they also have a prospect ready to step into that role (Yohandy Morales). The Twins don't have that internal option. Fedko could considered the closest possible internal option, but he only has played 33g at 1B. Maybe the Twins give Fedko a chance, but Baseball America just listed Fedko a "player to know" for the rule 5 draft. There isn't any guarantee that he will be with the Twins in a month. My argument is that Lowe's level of production (outside of 2025) are better than the next best free agent option O'Hearn. O'Hearn has 2 seasons of 2 WAR production or better (2024 a 2.0 and 2025 a 2.4). Lowe has 4 seasons above 2.0 (2021-2024 between 2.3-3.2). Since we don't have a definitive option, and Clemens is more of a utility guy, why not sign Lowe to a 2-year deal? Assuming he would agree to a 2 year contract with options since he is coming off a bad season? He isn't going to command $10M/yr, that has already been established. He will be quite a bit cheaper than that. He isn't blocking any prospect. Unless we trade for a 1B prospect, we will be playing Clemons and Julien at 1B and not investing in the future roster anyway. Both of which are nowhere near the level of Lowe. Mendez has yet, to play 1B and more than likely wouldn't be ready defensively in 2026 anyway. Wallner isn't a 1B and will never be. Roden has played 1B in the past, so that is an option. My preferred choice would be to trade for a 1B prospect or for Casas. I know many people disagree with Casas, but who knows if that is going to happen. Signing Lowe would be a my next choice, over O'Hearn.

To all those who wouldn't be in on Lowe, can I ask why? Is it just because he bats LH? Or because you generally think he is overrated? Cost too much? I am generally curious. He will be a FA in a few days and won't command a $10M salary...Nobody wanted to pick him up at the deadline for $10M. My guess right now is he will get between $6-8M/year. He is a solid 1B and has been for his entire career. He has only one stint on the IL and that was a 30day stint in 2024. He is an everyday 1B that doesn't have to be platooned. Here is his career offensive stats and splits: I Split G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ vs RHP 777 2433 2133 304 568 99 10 82 300 14 2 273 577 .266 .351 .437 .789 933 49 14 0 13 11 12 .327 104 vs LHP 494 997 885 94 228 38 3 25 113 1 0 103 259 .258 .337 .392 .729 347 17 5 0 4 0 8 .336 90 Defensively, over the last 3 years he has averaged 2OAA (bad 2025 of -5 OAA). If you look at DRS, he averages 0 defensive runs saved in the past 3 years (again a bad 2025). He isn't a defensive liability. In fact, given the Twins track record the past 2 years, that puts him the odds on favorite to win a GG (if the Twins sign him). With the exception of 2025, he has been a consistent 2-3 WAR level player.

I agree with most of what you said. Personally, I want to see change. I don't want to see the same roster we ran out in Aug/Sep. Young isn't necessarily bad. I think the roster you constructed has the chance to be very good in a few years. I was planning on doing another roster construction trading Ryan to the Mets for Benge, Williams, and Clifford. Williams could be swapped with Sproat or Tong, but you get the idea. In my opinion, the worst thing the FO can do is stand pat. I want to see them make an effort to address the roster and try to improve. Whether that through trade or free agency. I have my doubts it will be through free agency, so that would need to occur through trade.

I just quoted what Falvey stated. I don't know what language is in their contracts or exactly how much each minority partner own. None of us do. But, this is the second time Falvey has stated the "Limited Partners" will be consulted in terms of payroll/roster construction. At the end of the year press conference Falvey stated "We will talk about this offseason plan as well as '26, '27, '28 and beyond. This will be a different version of that conversation with Limited Partners involved in a way that hasn't happened to date". More broadly, if I invested in a product, I would have my views on how best to grow that investment. Given what Falvey has stated twice, the Limited Partners will be consulted on payroll/roster construction. Whether they have any sway remains to be seen. I understand your point though. We don't know any specifics of that relationship and we probably never will.

The A's youth has nothing to do with them leaving Oakland. The lease was up on the Coliseum and they were trying get a new stadium built. There was also discontent between the fan base and the owners. I travel to Sacramento at least once a month for business. I have caught many A's games while there as well as Sacramento River Cats and the fan base. I played college baseball and played in better stadiums than the Coliseum. It is a horrible place to watch baseball. The fanbase was very apathetic. They were upset that Fisher never invested in the team and consistently in rebuild mode. Over time fans stopped showing up. Oakland finally gave the A's a site and $774M to build a stadium, then Fisher said no, they are moving to Vegas. He blamed fans and the city for the move. The funding he got for the Vegas stadium is $300M less that what Oakland was going to give them... The move has nothing to do with the youth or the talent of the team. Oakland has a very talented group of young guys (Kurtz, Wilson, Soderstrom, Butler).