Cody Christie

Opening Day is later this week, and it’s time to focus on how good the Twins can be in 2024. Here are three players who have flown under the radar this spring and can take another step in the upcoming season. Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports Players can be overlooked entering any season if they are meeting expectations during spring training. It becomes a more significant issue when players are in the news cycle because that likely means they are injured or underperforming. Minnesota’s Opening Day roster took a hit last week, with multiple players set to open the year on the injured list. Here are three players flying under the radar this spring with a chance to significantly impact the Twins this season. Ryan Jeffers, C In 2023, Jeffers seemed relegated to a backup role after the team signed Christian Vázquez to a lucrative free-agent deal. Jeffers is coming off a breakout season, during which he was among baseball’s best offensive catchers with a 134 OPS+. He improved defensively by working with Twins coaches and increased his pop time from the 44th percentile to 59th. He threw out a career-high 25% of runners, four percent higher than the league average. The Twins used Jeffers more regularly down the stretch, and he started every playoff game. Jeffers has a chance to be an All-Star if he can build off his performance from last year and have a solid first half. Baltimore’s Adley Rutschman was the lone AL catcher to compile a higher fWAR and rWAR than Jeffers. “He actually improved his throwing on the defensive side of the ball which is not easy to do,” said Twins manager Rocco Baldelli. “He’s put himself in a spot to be a heck of a Big League catcher for a long time for us and we’re fortunate to have him.” Griffin Jax, RP Jax’s overall numbers from last season included some variable performance with some BABIP issues in the season’s first half. He regrouped and performed much better after his early struggles. Last season, Jax's barrel rate allowed was in the 97th percentile (3.3 percent) while ranking above average in hard-hit percentage, average exit velocity, and 56.8 percent groundball rate. With Jhoan Duran sidelined to begin the year, Jax figures to split closer duties with Brock Stewart. During spring training, Jax’s slider has been one of the most talked about pitches with Pitching Ninja taking notice on X (formerly known as Twitter). His slider has helped him strike out 12 of the first 25 batters he faced this spring over seven scoreless innings. "You don't really see a whole lot of spin until it gets just about to the plate, then it takes a left turn," catcher Brian O'Keefe told the Star Tribune. "It's one of those sliders that you see and you're like, that's a little different." The Twins need Jax to be dominant to begin the season, especially with Duran on the IL. Edouard Julien, 2B Julien was among a trio of rookies to perform exceptionally well in 2023. However, optimism seems to surround Julien this spring, and his offensive approach is hard for the coaching staff to ignore. His 64 walks last season helped him post a .381 OBP, which ranked second among MLB rookies last season. He’s shown the ability to drive the ball to all fields, and there might be even more room for improvement. The Twins drafted Julien in the 18th round from Auburn University. He grew up in Quebec, Canada, a non-traditional baseball area, and spoke little English when he arrived at college. This background might help him to show even more growth as he enters his mid-20s because he didn’t grow up in a baseball hotbed. “His work ethic is second to none,” said infield coach Tony Diaz. “We had to refine his routine and I’m blown away. He has that drive and discipline, and the biggest question is how much better he’s going to get. I can’t put any limits on a player like that. The sky’s the limit. When a player is that driven and wants to be great, I wouldn’t put winning a Gold Glove past him.” Are these players being overlooked? What are your expectations for this trio? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

The Twins made it through most of spring training without any injury news. Earlier this week, the club announced multiple players will begin the year on the IL, impacting the Opening Day roster. Image courtesy of Troy Taormina, Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports Every team deals with injuries during the course of the 162-game season. For the Twins, the front office has focused on adding depth in recent years after the club struggled with injuries in 2022. However, the team likely didn’t want to dig into that depth before the regular season began. On Monday, the Twins announced relievers Jhoan Duran (oblique) and Caleb Thielbar (hamstring) would begin the year on the IL along with starter Anthony DeSclafani (forearm strain). Duran and Thielbar will be out most of April, and Desclafani will potentially miss the entire season. With those injuries in mind, how has the team's 26-man roster changed for Opening Day? Catchers (2): Christian Vázquez, Ryan Jeffers Minnesota was one of two AL teams to use only two catchers last season, with Toronto being the other. Under the current regime, a two-catcher system is used regularly during the regular season. It allows both catchers to stay healthier, especially in one of baseball’s most demanding defensive positions. Vázquez is at an interesting point in his career after watching Jeffers take over the starting duties in last year’s playoffs. In his age-32 season, he posted a 65 OPS+ while still being strong defensively. Was it just a down year, or is age impacting his performance? Jeffers used Vázquez’s signing as motivation to improve his swing and work on his throwing mechanics, allowing him to finish among the AL’s top offensive catchers with a 134 OPS+. The Twins added Jair Camargo to the 40-man roster earlier in the offseason, so he’d be the next man up when the club needs a third catcher. Infielders (6): Carlos Correa, Kyle Farmer, Alex Kirilloff, Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien, Carlos Santana Injuries impacted this group in multiple ways last season, but the group is relatively healthy with Opening Day approaching. Correa played through a plantar fasciitis injury, making his performance suffer on both sides of the ball. Farmer took a brutal pitch to the face early in the season, which required jaw surgery. Kirilloff played through a shoulder injury before needing offseason surgery. Lewis missed time at the season’s start as he rehabbed from his second major knee surgery. Santana is the lone new face in this group and is expected to get most of the reps at first base. The team plans to use Kirilloff more regularly as a DH since Santana is a better first-base defender. Minnesota also has depth at Triple-A, with top prospects Brooks Lee and Austin Martin available to fill multiple infield roles when injuries impact the roster. Outfielders (5): Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, Willi Castro, Matt Wallner, Manuel Margot Buxton’s health has been one of the biggest storylines this spring because of the optimism surrounding his return to center field. Unfortunately, he was scratched from a lineup earlier this week with back soreness. It was likely a precautionary measure, and there are multiple ways to view his upcoming season as a success. Wallner and Margot have struggled this spring, with both players hitting under .100, so seeing how the team uses them in the season’s early games will be interesting. Kepler is looking to build off a tremendous second half that saw him emerge as one of the team’s best offensive weapons. Castro can play all over the field and has been hitting the ball well this spring. Trevor Larnach and Austin Martin will begin the year at Triple-A and figure to fit into the outfield mix at some point during the upcoming campaign. Rotation (5): Pablo Lopez, Bailey Ober, Joe Ryan, Chris Paddack, Louie Varland Varland is stepping into the role vacated by DeSclafani, which might be an upgrade throughout the season. The Twins don’t need a fifth starter for the first couple weeks of the season, but it seems likely for the club to use five starters especially with Paddack in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery. It sounds like the Twins will limit his innings by skipping or pushing back starts. This spring, Ober has shown an improved pitch mix and velocity, making him a potential playoff-caliber starter. Ryan attempted to pitch through a groin injury last season, and his performance suffered. He can be a dangerous weapon if he can find more consistency. Other young options are knocking on the door to the big leagues, including Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa, and Brent Headrick. Bullpen (8): Brock Stewart, Griffin Jax, Justin Topa, Jay Jackson, Josh Staumount, Steven Okert, Jorge Alcalá, Kody Funderburk Duran’s injury opens a significant hole in the ninth inning for the Twins. Fans can expect Stewart and Jax to get the majority of the save opportunities while Duran is on the shelf. Thielbar’s injury opens a spot for another lefty so Funderburk can get the last bullpen spot. Alcalá gets the roster spot vacated by Duran, and he’s earned a look after a strong spring. Topa, Jackson, Staumont, and Okert were acquired this winter and have moved up the bullpen hierarchy with this week’s injury news. Cole Sands, Zach Weiss, and Daniel Duarte provide depth in St. Paul if any veteran additions are ineffective or injured. How will the Twins handle the injuries that have arisen this spring? How do you feel about the team's depth at multiple positions? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Anthony DeSclafani’s recent injury news indicates a disturbing trend for the current front-office regime. Here are three reasons why the Twins continue to trade for injured pitchers. Image courtesy of Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports Earlier this week, the Twins announced multiple injury updates for pitchers who will begin the year on the IL. Jhoan Durán might be the most significant loss for the Twins, but the hope is that he can return in 4-6 weeks. For fans, Anthony DeSclafani’s injury might be the most frustrating, because it follows a pattern of the club acquiring injured pitchers (or injury-prone ones who lived up to their reputations almost immediately after arriving). Sam Dyson (12 appearances), Chris Paddack (five starts), and Tyler Mahle (nine starts) all have been limited after being acquired by the current front office. Even Kenta Maeda pitched fewer than 175 innings in Minnesota before needing to go under the knife. Following the DeSclafani news, The Star Tribune’s Michael Rand wrote, “The Twins need to stop trading for damaged pitchers.” He went so far as to say this “represents a blind spot with the Twins’ brain trust.” On the surface, that seems like a simple enough premise for every front office should follow. However, it’s not as simple as it sounds for the Minnesota Twins and their place in MLB’s hierarchy. Let’s dive into why the Twins continue trading for distressed assets and how it will impact the team moving forward. 1. All pitchers have injury histories (or will have them) The human body isn’t meant to throw a baseball with the velocity and movement used by major-league pitchers. Teams continue to find ways for players to throw harder, but that comes at a cost. Tommy John surgeries, once a career-threatening procedure, have become standard practice. Some pitchers, like Paddack, have the procedure multiple times. Elbow and shoulder issues have become so common that it seems like a matter of time before a pitcher misses time with an injury. Gerrit Cole, the reigning AL Cy Young winner, is arguably baseball’s best pitcher and has been a workhorse throughout his career. He has six seasons with over 200 innings pitched (a rare feat in baseball’s current landscape), and threw a league-high 209 innings in 2023. Now, Cole will miss time at the season’s start with elbow nerve inflammation, and he might not be back for 10-12 weeks. He’s one of multiple starters in the AL Cy Young voting (finishing place listed below) to be injured this spring. Sonny Gray (2nd place), now with the Cardinals, will miss Opening Day with a hamstring injury. Kevin Gausman (3rd place) is dealing with a shoulder issue in Blue Jays camp. Baltimore’s Kyle Bradish (4th place) is working his way back from a sprained UCL. Every pitcher deals with injuries, even the league’s best arms. 2. The front office refuses to leverage the farm system for frontline starting pitching As a mid-market team, the Twins need a healthy farm system to replace aging veterans who leave via free agency. This strategy has been standard practice since the Metrodome era, and it will continue to be true if ownership keeps payroll at its current level. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine could have packaged Walker Jenkins, Brooks Lee, and Emmanuel Rodriguez together to get a top-tier starting pitcher with multiple years of team control. That scenario might help the team for the short term, but there would be long-term ramifications when the club runs short on big-league caliber prospects in the farm system. Mahle’s trade was the team’s most prominent swing in terms of prospect capital, with Spencer Steer, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, and Steve Hajjar going to the Reds. Minnesota felt good about their depth in the minors at the positions those prospects played, which made them easier to trade. The front office also avoided trading from the team’s top-ranked prospects. There were better pitchers than Mahle available at the 2022 trade deadline, like Luis Castillo, but it would have taken much better prospects. Some fans might want the Twins to go all in to acquire starting pitching, but this front office refuses to leverage the farm. 3. Giving large contracts to starting pitching doesn’t always work in the team’s favor Minnesota’s front office has attempted to sign some big-name free-agent starters in recent years, including offers to Yu Darvish and Zack Wheeler. Both those players received higher offers from other organizations and preferred to play on the coasts. Wheeler has been terrific for the Phillies since signing, becoming a perennial Cy Young candidate and signing a second contract with them this spring for $126 million over three years. Darvish has had a streaky performance with San Diego while posting a 101 ERA+. Free agent deals tend to look worse over time, especially for players who reach their late- to mid-30s. The Twins also can’t afford to give a significant amount of their available payroll to a starter since the ownership group cut payroll by $30 million this winter. The Twins’ best pitcher drafted and developed in the organization over the last decade was José Berríos. Minnesota’s front office tried to work out a long-term deal, but Berríos wanted to be paid like a frontline starter. After trading him to Toronto, the Blue Jays signed him to a seven-year, $131 million deal, and he struggled in 2022 (74 ERA+) before bouncing back in 2023 (116 ERA+). To get a frontline starter, the Twins were creative in trading for Pablo López and changing his pitch mix. Minnesota quickly signed him to a four-year, $73.5 million extension, which looks like a bargain compared to the Berríos contract. López and Berríos can both be All-Stars in the years ahead, but the Twins must be careful about how their money is spent. It’s frustrating for fans to watch players get injured, especially those who seem to get injured shortly after putting on a Twins uniform. However, it’s not a “blind spot” for the current front office because injuries happen with pitchers across every baseball organization. Do you agree with the above reasons? Should the front office be more cautious about their trade acquisitions? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View full article

Role players can push a contending team over the top in a division race. Last season, Willi Castro proved his worth to the Minnesota Twins, and he might be gearing up for an even better 2024 campaign. Image courtesy of Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports Last season, Willi Castro entered spring training as a non-roster invitee who had to prove he belonged on the big-league roster. The Twins had multiple injured players, and Castro performed well in the spring, with a .973 OPS while playing four different defensive positions. Entering the season, Tom Froemming crowned Castro the 2023 Sire of Fort Myers, based on his surprising spring. Castro was only 26 years old, and there was room for him to continue developing. His value to the Twins became even clearer during the regular season. Castro proved himself integral to the Twins in the regular season, playing 124 games and accumulating the third-highest rWAR among Minnesota hitters, behind Ryan Jeffers and Max Kepler. He hit .257/.339/.411, with 32 extra-base hits and a 106 OPS+. On the bases, Castro single-handedly moved the Twins from one of baseball’s worst baserunning teams to a slightly below-average one with his 33 steals in 38 chances. His defensive flexibility also added to his value, as he played every position except for first base and catcher. The strong spring wasn't the reason why he thrived, but it did give him the opportunity to prove himself. “We had him last year at 25 as an NRI in camp. That’s not standard practice,” Twins manager Rocco Baldelli told Twins Daily’s Nick Nelson over the weekend. “You usually don't get good athletic, switch-hitting, multi-positional guys. He did more than anyone could’ve expected him to last year." Entering 2024, Castro wasn’t fighting for a spot on the Twins roster. Instead, he entered camp knowing he’d be used at multiple defensive positions, with a chance to improve his offensive performance. Free to focus on that aspect of things, he's hitting the snot out of the ball this spring. Three of the 21 hardest-hit balls of his entire career, in any Statcast-covered setting, have come during spring training. Entering play on Monday, Castro had a 1.000 OPS this spring, with three extra-base hits in 30 plate appearances. “At that age, there’s still upside,” Baldelli told Nelson. “So, if he’s getting stronger still and doing things like that, that wouldn’t be surprising for a guy that's only 26 years old." So, what’s next for Castro, and is his spring performance any indication of further development? Projection systems view Castro as taking a step back, which can be expected when using his performance from multiple years. ZiPS projects Castro to hit .247/.306/.385, with a 93 OPS+ and a 0.7 WAR. Baseball-Reference expects .248/.312/.398, with 34 extra-base hits and 20 stolen bases over 444 plate appearances. There is regression baked into any projection system, but Castro may have started making adjustments at the end of last season. Last September, Castro showed signs of an improved approach at the plate. Some players wear down at the season’s end, but Castro had his best month in September. In 23 games, he hit .313/.398/.550, with nine extra-base hits and four stolen bases. His OPS was nearly 100 points higher than in any other month of the season. He was also a spark plug in the lineup when the Twins were winning last season, as he posted an .852 OPS, which was 214 points higher than when he played in the team’s losses. Other players will be impacted if Castro continues to hit well when the regular season begins. Matt Wallner has struggled this spring, going 2-for-29 (.069 BA) in 35 plate appearances. He is scheduled to be the team’s regular left fielder, but Castro can take playing time away from the left-handed slugger. Minnesota also acquired Manuel Margot to back up Byron Buxton in center field, but he, too, has been struggling this spring (.086 BA with no extra-base hits). Castro was one of the team’s center field options before they acquired Margot, and the team could turn to him if Buxton misses time. Contending teams typically get surprise performances from different parts of the roster. Castro certainly surprised in his first year with the Twins, but his age and development might point to him being even better in 2024. What role will Castro play this season? Should fans be excited about the way he is hitting the ball this spring? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

The Blue Jays were supposed to develop into an American League powerhouse with a trio of young talent leading the way. Minnesota needs to avoid Toronto’s shortcomings to avoid its competitive window closing. Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports Baseball is a game of winning windows. Most teams attempting to contend will cycle through winning and losing seasons. During the losing seasons, a team can replenish their farm system with higher draft picks and trading away veterans. Teams can trade for MLB-caliber talent when the winning window opens to supplement the roster and make a playoff run. Over the last five seasons, the Twins have won the AL Central three times, which points to the team being in their winning window. However, another AL club is attempting to keep its winning window open, and Minnesota must avoid its shortcomings. The Blue Jays have been one of baseball’s best teams since 2020, with a .557 winning percentage and MLB’s sixth-best record over the last four seasons. Many believed the young core of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, and Cavan Biggio would turn Toronto into a perennial contender. Still, the club has failed to win the division or make it out of the Wild Card round. According to Baseball Trade Values, 22 of Toronto’s 26 starters will be free agents over the next one to three seasons, and 16 players can be gone after the 2025 campaign. Their winning window is quickly closing, so how do the Twins differ from the Blue Jays? Farm System The Twins have supplemented veteran players on their roster by continuing to fare well when developing players in the farm system. Last season, the club saw the fruits of that labor, with young players taking on a critical role, including Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien, Bailey Ober, Louie Varland, and Matt Wallner. Minnesota also has other prospects on the cusp of the big leagues in 2024, such as Brooks Lee, Austin Martin, David Festa, and Simeon Woods Richardson. Like most teams, Minnesota values depth, and having players ready for the call can keep a winning window open. According to MLB Pipeline, the Twins have baseball’s 15th-ranked farm system, and the Blue Jays rank 24th. Toronto has two top 100 prospects with starting pitcher Ricky Tiedemann (29th) and infielder Orelvis Martinez (89th). Minnesota has four top-100 prospects, including Walker Jenkins (10th), Brooks Lee (18th), Emmanuel Rodriguez (42nd), and Gabriel Gonzalez (79th). Not every top-100 prospect will become a regular at the big-league level, but the Twins have more top-tier talent than the Blue Jays. Adding Value in Trades Derek Falvey has been aggressive on the trade market since stepping into the top spot in the Twins’ baseball operations department. When trading, results can have a wide array of long-term results. Minnesota will feel the long-term ramifications of the Tyler Mahle and Jorge López trades as the players combined to provide negative WAR value in a Twins uniform. Not every trade has gone poorly for the club, and some deals have helped the team expand their competitive window. In 2021, the Twins attempted to recreate the magic from the 2019 season by bringing back Nelson Cruz for a third season. Minnesota was out of the race by the trade deadline and sent Cruz and his expiring contract to the Rays for a package that included Joe Ryan. Ryan has established himself as a mid-rotation starter with the potential to continue developing. There are also other examples of Minnesota finding value in the trade market. The Twins acquired Sonny Gray from the Reds for Chase Petty, a late first-round pick. Gray performed at an All-Star level for two seasons, and now Minnesota will get a late first-round pick in the 2024 MLB Draft as compensation for his leaving. Entering 2023, the front office sent Luis Arraez to Miami for Pablo Lopez. Arraez was terrific for the Marlins last season, but the Twins had depth at second base and needed front-line starting pitching. Lopez made adjustments after joining the organization and projects to be one of the AL’s best starters in 2024. Avoiding Long-Term Free Agent Contracts During their current winning window, the Blue Jays added George Springer, Kevin Gausman, and Hyun Jin Ryu to high-priced free-agent deals. Each player has provided glimpses of value, but some of those deals are starting to age poorly. In fact, the back end of most long-term deals are typically bad from the team’s perspective. Ironically, the Blue Jays traded with the Twins for José Berríos and immediately extended him to a long-term deal. Minnesota wasn’t interested in meeting Berríos’ demands, so the club parted ways. His time in Toronto has been filled with ups and downs, and the Twins are waiting to see what Martin and Woods-Richardson can provide. Like Toronto, Minnesota attempted to add a veteran, Josh Donaldson, to push the team to the next level. Injuries marred his Twins tenure, but the club was lucky to dump the last two years of his contract on the Yankees. Carlos Correa has signed multiple free-agent deals with the club and struggled with plantar fasciitis in the first year of his six-year deal. Correa was young when he reached the open market so the team hopes he can provide more value over the next five seasons. Aging players will see a decline in performance, and the key is to avoid dedicating too much payroll space to these types of players, especially for mid-market teams. Toronto’s future isn’t set in stone, but it appears their winning window might be closing in the highly competitive AL East. Luckily, Minnesota plays in arguably baseball’s worst division, so it’s easier to stay competitive. The Twins have also been able to avoid some of the Blue Jays' shortcomings for the long term. Is Toronto’s winning window closing? How long can the Twins stay atop the AL Central? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Rocco Baldelli joined the Twins after spending most of his professional career in the Tampa Bay Rays organization. Here are three ways the Twins are trying to emulate what has made the Rays successful over the last decade. Image courtesy of Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery. Throughout MLB, teams continue to try and emulate the teams that have found continued success on the field and in their development process. For many owners, the Tampa Bay Rays have become the shining beacon, paving a path for other organizations. They are consistently one of baseball’s best teams while touting a minimal payroll and ranking as one of the top MLB farm systems. Every ownership group would love their team to be run like the Rays, and that’s why other franchises look to imitate their most successful strategies. Earlier this winter, Joe Pohlad made a controversial interview tour to try to explain some of the decisions made by the organization. "I think in today's game you can see there are a number of different ways to win," Pohlad said when discussing cutting payroll during the offseason. "You see that both with the Tampa Bay Rays and with the Baltimore Orioles having lower payrolls, turning out very successful products on the field but also investing in other areas of the business. That is something that we are doing. But without a question the television situation is having an impact on our business but beyond that we're just trying to right-size our business. That goes into it as well." So, what are the ways the Twins are emulating the Rays? Lower Payroll Tampa Bay has been known for its frugal spending throughout its history, tied to its small market and terrible ballpark. Over the last three seasons, the Rays have averaged a $88 million payroll, including a $99 million estimated payroll for 2024. Unfortunately for Tampa, Wander Franco comprises 16.7% of their total payroll, even though he is on an indefinite stay on administrative leave for acts committed in the Dominican Republic. The Rays are often forced to trade away talent before free agency as the club did with Tyler Glasnow, which restocks their farm system and keeps them as perennial contenders. The Twins dropped their payroll by the third-highest percentage of any team this winter. Most of the top five teams have revenue issues due to the collapse of regional sports networks. Minnesota’s ownership group claims the club has been outspending its revenue in recent years, so a payroll cut was required. Compared to other AL clubs, the Twins have the seventh-lowest payroll, which puts them in the middle of the pack and second in the AL Central. Next season, Pablo Lopez sees his contract extension kick in, which raises his salary from $8.25 million to $21.75 million. Other younger players will also be making more money as they reach arbitration. Minnesota’s payroll issues aren’t going away, especially with an uncertain television future. Platooning Platooning hitters has been a strategy managers employ for decades because it has proven to work. Overall, hitters fare worse against same-handed pitchers, with left-handed hitters struggling more than righties in these matchups. The Twins have fared poorly in recent years against southpaws, and one of the biggest reasons for those struggles has been Byron Buxton’s constant injury issues. Over the past three seasons, the Twins rank 20th in overall team production (.312 wOBA) against left-handed pitching and 17th (.323) against left-handed starting pitching. The Twins have young left-handed hitters who will begin games on the bench when the opposition starts a tough lefty. Matt Wallner posted a .481 OPS versus southpaws last season compared to a .970 OPS against righties. Edouard Julien’s OPS dropped from .898 against righties to a .447 against lefties. Twins manager Rocco Baldelli also has an opportunity to start a completely right-handed lineup (with one switch hitter) against lefties this season if he is willing to have one of his catchers serve as DH. Platooning isn’t going away, even for the team’s young core. Power Bullpen The Twins are projected to have one of baseball’s top-ranked starting staffs in 2024, but the bullpen might take on an even more critical role. Minnesota’s front office took a different approach to bullpen creation this winter, and the relief core is projected to be among baseball’s best. Many things can go wrong when projecting bullpen numbers, especially with the sample size that relievers throw in any given season. Still, it is exciting to think about how Baldelli will be able to unleash this group, especially with the assembled depth. Earlier this winter, Nick wrote about how the Twins might be able to utilize their bullpen as a weapon this season using a strategy similar to Tampa Bay. Last season, the Rays led the AL in pitching fWAR while getting the third-fewest innings from their starters. Starters struggle when opposing batters see a pitcher for a third time, so it makes sense to avoid that situation. Besides Pablo Lopez, few Twins starters will likely be allowed to pitch to a lineup for a third time. Fans should get used to Baldelli handing the game over to the bullpen in the fifth or sixth inning. There are plenty of things to get excited about for the 2024 season, and the bullpen is certainly high on that list. How else will the Twins try to imitate the Rays? Which strategy will work the best for the current roster? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

On Saturday, the Twins and the Rays will face off in each organization’s inaugural Spring Breakout game, showcasing their top prospects. Here are three under-the-radar prospects to watch from Minnesota’s roster. Image courtesy of William Parmeter (photo of Zebby Matthews) Fans have followed their favorite teams' prospect lists for decades, and MLB finally decided to capitalize on the hype with an event that puts those players in the spotlight. According to MLB.com, “MLB Spring Breakout is a four-day event showcasing baseball’s future: the current stars of Minor League Baseball. The inaugural edition will be held from March 14-17 at Grapefruit and Cactus League stadiums during Spring Training. A series of 16 exhibition games will be played between teams comprised of each MLB organization’s top prospects, creating a new touchpoint on the baseball calendar that celebrates our sport’s budding talent.” On Saturday, the Twins will host the Rays at Hammond Stadium, with some of baseball’s best prospects scheduled to appear. The estimated start time for the game is 3:05 PM CST. Minnesota fans will get a first opportunity to see Walker Jenkins, the team’s top-ranked prospect, along with other highly-touted talents like Emmanuel Rodríguez, Gabriel González, David Festa, Marco Raya, and Charlee Soto. The entire Spring Breakout roster can be found here, but there are multiple players outside the team's top-10 prospects list to watch during Saturday’s game. Here are three lesser-known prospects worth your close attention. Kala’i Rosario, OF TD Prospect Rank: 13 The Twins selected Rosario with their fifth-round pick in the 2020 MLB Draft, out of high school in Hawaii. Since it was in the middle of the pandemic, it was a strange draft limited to five rounds. However, the Twins found two solid prospects with their last two picks (Marco Raya and Rosario). In 2023, Rosario played the entire season at High-A and hit .252/.364/.467, with 27 doubles, three triples, and 21 home runs. His OPS rose 105 points compared to the 2022 season, and he was two years younger than the average age of the competition in the Midwest League. Following the season, he was named the Midwest League MVP, as he helped the Kernels win the league’s championship. Defensively, he has limited range even in the corner outfield spots, so it will be critical for him to continue producing on the offensive side of the ball. Danny De Andrade, SS TD Prospect Rank: 15 De Andrade was among the top-ranked prospects during the 2021 international signing period, and the Twins signed the Venezuelan shortstop for $2.2 million. In 105 games in 2023, he hit .244/.354/.396, with 21 doubles, three triples, and 11 home runs for Low-A Fort Myers. Over 98 percent of his plate appearances came against older pitchers; he was one of the youngest players in the Florida State League. In February, I wrote about how ZiPS views him with surprising long-term value. He will likely play most of the upcoming season at Cedar Rapids, and must prove he can stick at shortstop as his body matures. He's at least two years away from MLB, but Saturday will offer fans a chance to get a better idea of what they're waiting for. Zebby Matthews, RHP TD Prospect Rank: NR The current Twins front office loves drafting college pitchers from smaller schools in the middle and late rounds of the draft. Once they identify a player with some latent upside, they bring them into the organization and try to make the necessary tweaks to turn them into a big-leaguer. As an 8th-round pick from the 2022 MLB Draft, Matthews fits the mold. Last season, he posted a 3.84 ERA with a 1.05 WHIP and 9.6 K/9. His fastball typically sits in the mid-90s, and it'll be fascinating to see where his velocity is when asked to pitch one inning in a showcase event. His command is outstanding, with 1.3 BB/9 last season, and he has a chance to pitch at Double-A in 2024. What do you hope to see in the team’s first Spring Breakout game? Which prospects do you view as under the radar? Leave a comment to start the discussion. View full article

Byron Buxton’s health and performance have been a positive storyline throughout spring training. With Opening Day quickly approaching, what would make the 2024 season a success for the Twins’ center fielder? Image courtesy of William Parmeter One year ago, Byron Buxton was trying to find a way to get healthy enough to help the Twins during the 2023 season. Spring training was a nightmare, as he dealt with continual knee pain, so the team announced he’d begin the year in the designated hitter role. Some thought that Buxton would return to the outfield later in the season, but he was never truly healthy and was limited to 85 games, all as a DH. He hit .207/.294/.438 with 35 extra-base hits and a 98 OPS+. He described his condition last year as “feeling like a knife is in your knee every morning.” So, what’s changed for the 2024 season? Earlier today, our Nick Nelson published his analysis of the center field position for the Twins in 2024, and Buxton's various potential dimensions of success and failure are the main variable being analyzed there. During the offseason, Buxton underwent an arthroscopic procedure to excise the plica, a membrane flap, in his right knee. This type of surgery has a shorter recovery time than his previous procedures, and the Twins believed it would alleviate the issues he suffered through in recent years. Buxton’s attitude and performance look to be back on track this spring, which the Twins hope translates to a better regular season performance. Success in 2024 can take on multiple forms, and he likely has multiple goals he is aiming for to deem the season a success. Games in Center Field Buxton’s career high for games in center field came in 2017, when he played 137 games and logged 1,143 innings. His defense was so good that season that he was honored with the AL’s Platinum Glove as the league’s top defender. From 2021-22, he averaged fewer than 60 games in center field while dealing with multiple injuries. Earlier this winter, reports had the Twins hoping he’d start around 80 games in center, with his remaining time coming at DH or used as rest days. However, he needs to do more than play games in center field for the season to be deemed a success, so he likely needs to accomplish more on this list. Successful Season Goal: 75+ games in center field OPS+ Buxton’s offensive ability can change the entire dynamic of the Twins’ lineup. Over the last three seasons, he combined for a 131 OPS+ while averaging fewer than 80 games per season. ZiPS projects Buxton to finish the season with a 124 OPS+ in 364 plate appearances, which is more playing time than he has averaged over the last three seasons. Baseball-Reference projects him for an .817 OPS, an 86-point increase from 2023. In 2022, Buxton was an All-Star and posted an .824 OPS with 23 home runs in the season’s first half. Those totals are significant, especially if he is playing center field regularly. Successful Season Goal: 120 OPS+ Total Games Played In previous seasons, Buxton discussed a goal of reaching 100 games played, which he has only previously accomplished once in his big-league career. Even with limited availability, Buxton has provided tremendous value to the Twins. According to FanGraphs, Buxton averaged over 4.0 WAR in 2021-22, which translates to him being worth over $30 million per season. In 2024, the Twins will pay Buxton just north of $15 million, a value that has been easy for him to reach in previous seasons. Minnesota has paid Buxton close to $36 million in career salary, and he has provided the team with $151.7 million worth of value. Successful Season Goal: 100 games played Availability in October The Twins ended the playoff losing streak last season, but Buxton couldn’t contribute in October. He was added to the team’s roster in the Houston series after Alex Kirilloff landed on the IL with a shoulder injury. Buxton made one plate appearance, but failed to reach base. After the game, he said there was no way he could play in the field. Buxton has missed time in other playoff series during his career, too. In 2019, the Bomba Squad didn’t have Buxton in the lineup as the Yankees swept them in three games. Back in 2017, Buxton was removed from the Wild Card Game after crashing into the outfield wall. For the Twins to make a deeper run in the playoffs, the club needs its stars to play at their highest level in October. Carlos Correa showed the team what he could do in October, and he was playing through plantar fasciitis at the time. A healthy Buxton and Correa can wreak havoc on the AL playoff picture. Successful Season Goal: Peak Performance in October Some fans likely won’t be happy unless Buxton is playing every day in center field and performing at an All-Star level. Those aren’t realistic expectations at this point in his career, but there are performance milestones he can accomplish during the 2024 campaign. The Twins are better with a healthy Buxton in the lineup, as he can be one of baseball’s best players on both sides of the ball. How will you view this season as a success for Buxton? Is it based on games played, offensive performance, or wins in October? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View full article

Major League Baseball is experiencing a payroll crisis, with teams across the league cutting costs--ostensibly due to uncertainty surrounding regional television networks. Many teams cut payroll leading into the 2024 campaign, so let’s examine the five who cut the highest percentage of their 2023 salaries. Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports Much has been written about the Minnesota Twins and their payroll situation this winter. However, they were hardly the only club looking to cut costs due to the evaporating regional television markets (or at least, with that circumstance as cover for applying downward pressure on player salaries). Opening Day is at the end of March, and some of the top free agents remain unsigned because teams cut back on their spending for 2024. The Twins were one of the teams who trimmed their payroll for the upcoming season, but where do they rank in the top five? Honorable Mentions: Milwaukee Brewers (-12%), Detroit Tigers (-9.1%), and New York Mets (-7.9%) 5. Texas Rangers 2023 Payroll: $251 million 2024 Payroll: $220 million Payroll Drop: -12.4% The Rangers won the franchise's first World Series last year. That meant a big bump in revenue from their long playoff run and renewed interest in the team, leading to more season ticket sales. However, this winter, the Rangers' television deal affected the club’s free-agent spending. Initially, Texas had a deal with Diamond Sports to pay them $111 million annually, but they are expected to receive somewhere between $90-100 million for the upcoming season. Like the Twins, they don’t know where their home will be after the 2024 season, and that uncertainty has caused the team to be more cautious this winter. 4. Colorado Rockies 2023 Payroll: $171 million 2024 Payroll: $145 million Payroll Drop: -15.3% Colorado was one of the teams dropped by Diamond Sports in the middle of last season, causing MLB to shift television plans on the fly. For 2024, fans living in the club’s home television territory can purchase a package to watch all Rockies games in-market both live and on-demand. The package costs $99.99 for the season or $19.99 per month. The Rockies are one of baseball’s worst-run organizations, so their spending likely won’t impact their finish in the NL West. 3. Minnesota Twins 2023 Payroll: $156 million 2024 Payroll: $128 million Payroll Drop: -17.9% The Twins' payroll situation has been discussed at length from multiple perspectives at Twins Daily. For much of the offseason, it seemed like they would be heading toward a plan similar to the Rockies', since the team’s deal with Diamond Sports expired after the regular season. Instead, Minnesota agreed to a one-year deal to stay on Bally Sports North. Last season, the Twins made a bit less than $60 million from their television deal. This year, under the new short-term arrangement, they're expected to make between $40-50 million. (The exact total has not been reported, which says plenty on its own.) For fans, the entire television and payroll situation has been frustrating on multiple fronts. First, team officials made comments about blackouts being removed, which won’t happen in 2024. Second, the team received an influx of revenue with the new TV deal, but the team didn’t spend any more on the payroll after that unexpected infusion. Twins fans might be frustrated, but fans of the following two teams have even more to complain about. 2. Los Angeles Angels 2023 Payroll: $230 million 2024 Payroll: $174 million Payroll Drop: -24.4% The Angels are another one of the teams impacted by the ongoing bankruptcy issues with Diamond Sports. Some of this drop in payroll is also tied to the loss of Shohei Ohtani, who made $30 million last season in his final year of arbitration eligibility. Last season was a one-year payroll jump for the Angels in an attempt to get to the playoffs before Ohtani left for free agency. The club has hovered between $179-$182 million in payroll since the 2020 season. Los Angeles also caused a stir last season when they placed five players on waivers less than a month after trading for many of them at the deadline. It was an attempt by the front office to drop the team’s payroll under the luxury tax threshold, which they were able to do by $30,000. 1. San Diego Padres 2023 Payroll: $256 million 2024 Payroll: $160 million Payroll Drop: -37.5% The Padres have been interesting to follow of late, because their market is smaller than Minnesota, but they have outspent the Twins. San Diego was forced to trade Juan Soto this winter to clear his $31.5-million salary, an arbitration record, from their bloated books. They still have four players with an average annual contract value of over $20 million (Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Joe Musgrove). On the television side, the team was in the middle of a 20-year, $1.2-billion contract before being dropped by Diamond Sports in the middle of last season. Fans in the Padres viewing area can sign up for a television deal similar to the Rockies' through MLB’s streaming platform. Revenue and payroll issues will continue impacting teams until baseball has more clarity on regional TV rights. Regional sports networks have been vital to revenue and growth, but it’s time for baseball to update its antiquated rules about blackouts and find ways to reach a bigger audience. Without adjusting, baseball will continue to lose fans, which will have long-term impacts on the game’s growth. If the owners are using this as a cheap guise under which to tighten the screws in the run-up to the next collective bargaining negotiations with the MLBPA, that goes double. Did you expect the Twins to rank higher or lower on this list? Were any of the teams a surprise? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View full article

The Twins must rely on depth at multiple positions to stay in contention during the 2024 season. Here are three names who were previously part of the team’s long-term plans before injuries derailed their path. Image courtesy of Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports Fans can be excited when a top prospect reaches the majors and has high success. However, there can be growing pains as the league adjusts to a player, which is only heightened when a player attempts to play through injuries. Each of the trio below has a different focus for the 2024 season, but they all need to prove they are healthy to work their way back into the team’s long-term plans. Alex Kirilloff, 1B/DH High Point (May 2023): .314/.448/.486 (.934), 3 2B, 3 HR Minnesota felt worried enough about Kirilloff’s injury history to bring in Carlos Santana, with the team planning for the veteran to get most of the starts at first base. In October, Kirilloff had shoulder surgery, but there was no tear to his labrum, so doctors were able to use a less invasive surgery. Kirilloff was considered one of the best pure-hitting prospects to come through the Twins organization in quite some time. He’s shown flashes of that hitting ability, but injuries have far too often impacted his overall career numbers. Last May, Kirilloff carried the team’s offense with a 167 wRC+ and a 7.1 Offense Above Average. The team might be planning on him playing more DH this season, but there is no question that his hitting profile can change the line-up’s entire dynamic. José Miranda, 1B/DH High Point (July 2022): .353/.405/.603 (1.008), 2 2B, 5 HR Unlike Kirilloff, Miranda isn’t projected to make the Twins’ Opening Day roster, so he must hit his way back to the big leagues in St. Paul. Like Kirilloff, Miranda had offseason shoulder surgery with his procedure removing scar tissue from his right labrum and rotator cuff. Early in camp, he was limited to designated hitter duties, but he is starting to get some work in at first base, a position with which he is less familiar. Hopes were high for Miranda entering the 2023 season after he posted a 114 OPS+ with 25 doubles and 15 home runs during a tremendous rookie campaign. His shoulder bothered him throughout the 2023 season, and he struggled to hit .211/.263/.303 (.566) with seven extra-base hits in 40 games. The offensive bar is higher at first base/DH than at third base, so he must prove he can hit like he did in 2022. Jorge Alcalá, RP High Point (Sept/Oct 2021): 0.71 ERA, 0.55 WHIP, 15 K, .309 OPS, 12 2/3 IP Few fans get overly excited about a pitching prospect heading for a bullpen role, but Alcalá has shown brief stints of what he can mean to the team’s relief core. During spring training, he has been hitting in the upper 90s with his fastball, which is an encouraging sign for the reliever who has battled injuries over the last two seasons. In 2021, it looked like Alcalá might be entering the team’s long-term bullpen plans, but elbow and forearm issues have held him to 19 2/3 innings over the last two seasons. To return to the big leagues, he must show he can better control the strike zone and use his offspeed pitches more effectively. Alcalá can be a late-inning weapon now that his health concerns are behind him. Each of these players seems destined for a long-term role with the club, but their futures have been clouded because of recent injuries. There are specific roles each can fill for the Twins in 2024, and that will help reestablish some of the luster that has worn off in recent years. Returning to their high point might be out of the question, but Minnesota needs the depth these players provide. Which player is a more significant part of the team’s long-term plans? Who provides the team with the most value in 2024? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Charlee Soto has turned heads this spring with his combination of stuff and presence on the mound. Can he break the Twins’ trend of poor-performing high school pitching prospects? Image courtesy of William Parmeter Drafting a teenage pitching prospect comes with plenty of pitfalls because of the development required to move from the low minors to the big leagues. Some pitchers drafted out of high school can go on to have extraordinary careers, while others will suffer injuries or poor performance before reaching the high minors. There is a particular wild card element with high school pitchers, and some organizations do a better job of getting value from these players, who are viewed as lottery tickets. The Twins selected Charlee Soto with the 34th overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft out of high school in Florida. After signing with Minnesota for $2.48 million, the club decided not to have him make his professional debut as he worked at the team’s facilities in Fort Myers. In high school, he was a shortstop until the summer leading into his senior season, so evaluators believe he can repeat his delivery because of his infield throwing experience. His fastball has good movement and regularly hits in the upper 90s. He combines a powerful sinker, a hard slider, and a split-change to complete his pitch mix. His lack of experience as a full-time pitcher likely means the Twins will be patient with him so he can continue to refine his craft. So, how have the Twins done drafting and developing other high school arms? 2021 Draft: Chase Petty (26th overall) Minnesota used their first-round pick in 2021 to draft Petty out of high school in New Jersey. He signed for $2.5 million and made two appearances with the FCL Twins during his professional debut. Leading into the 2022 season, the Twins traded him to the Reds for Sonny Gray, which worked out for both teams. Petty reached Double-A last season and posted a 1.72 ERA with a 1.15 WHP and 8.7 K/9. He is a borderline top-100 prospect who should move up national rankings with another solid season in the upper minors. Minnesota got two All-Star caliber seasons from Gray, and now they get the 33rd overall pick in the 2024 MLB Draft as compensation for his leaving. Perhaps the team will take another high school arm. 2013 Draft: Kohl Stewart (5th overall) Stewart was an intriguing prospect when the Twins selected him as one of the top five picks. He had Division 1 scholarship offers to play football, but the Twins signed him for over $4.5 million to coax him away from that commitment. All three national rankings had him in their top 55 prospects entering the 2014 season, and he peaked as the 28th-ranked prospect by Baseball Prospectus entering the 2015 campaign. Stewart slowly worked through the Twins system but failed to miss enough bats to be truly effective, with a 6.7 K/9 in over 680 minor league innings. He pitched 62 innings with the Twins while combining for a 4.79 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP. He’s bounced around to multiple organizations in recent years but hasn’t pitched a professional inning since 2021 while dealing with injuries. 2012 Draft: José Berríos (32nd overall) Berríos is one of the team’s bright spots when drafting and developing a high school pitcher. Like Soto, the Twins used a supplemental first-round pick to draft Berríos. He signed for $1.55 million and quickly became one of baseball’s best pitching prospects. Entering the 2016 season, MLB.com and Baseball Prospectus had him ranked as a top-20 prospect. During his Twins tenure, he was a two-time All-Star, posting a 4.08 ERA (107 ERA+) with a 1.23 WHIP and 9.0 K/9. At the 2021 trade deadline, the Twins traded Berrios to the Toronto Blue Jays for a package that included Austin Martin and Simeon Woods Richardson. Both players finished last season at Triple-A and should debut in 2024. It will be multiple years before the Twins know if Soto is following in the footsteps of Berríos or going down the same path as Stewart. The current front office regime prefers to draft college arms, so Soto will be an interesting case study in the coming years. He has all the potential in the world, but a lot can go wrong between now and when he first steps on the mound at Target Field. What are your expectations for Soto in 2024? How aggressive will the Twins be with him this season? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

The back of the Twins rotation looks very different than it did to start the 2023 campaign. With Opening Day on the horizon, what’s the biggest question facing this group? Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports Rotational depth is critical for any contending team because it takes more than five starters to complete a 162-game season. Last season, the Twins had ten pitchers make at least one start, and the club used 14 starters during an injury-plagued 2022 campaign. Minnesota started last year with a five-person rotation that included Pablo López, Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Tyler Mahle, and Kenta Maeda. By the end of April, Mahle was on the injured list before undergoing Tommy John surgery. Maeda was returning from Tommy John surgery, which limited his usage throughout the season. For the second consecutive season, the biggest question facing the back of the Twins rotation is, “How healthy are these arms?” Chris Paddack returned from Tommy John surgery at the end of the 2023 season and pitched out of the bullpen for the stretch run. Minnesota expects Paddack to be able to handle a return to the rotation this season, but there can be innings limitations for a player returning from this type of surgery. Last season, Maeda was in a similar recovery spot to Paddack and was limited to just over 100 innings pitched. Paddack has never thrown over 141 innings in a professional season, likely a trend that will continue in 2024. Paddack built up to over 50 pitches in his March 5th start while also seeing increased velocity on his newly developed slider. His approach when ahead in the count has been a focus for him this spring. Keeping opposing batters off balance with a changeup and slider should help him to miss more bats and be more effective. "Two-strike execution is one of his goals [and] something we want him thinking about every time he takes the mound," Twins manager Rocco Baldelli said. "He's a really good strike-thrower, and he gets into a lot of two-strike counts. It's what he does then [that matters]. His best off-speed pitch for much of his career has been his changeup, so now it's about getting breaking balls to get swings and misses. He doesn't have to be in the zone with two strikes, he knows that, he's working on it." Paddack’s return from injury isn’t the only health concern for the team’s projected Opening Day rotation. Anthony DeSclafani missed time last season with a flexor forearm strain, and the Twins shut him down earlier this spring after he experienced soreness in his right elbow. This type of soreness can be expected, according to team trainer Nick Paparesta. In 2023, DeSclafani was limited to 19 appearances (99 2/3 innings) with a 4.88 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. The Twins hope he can return to his 2021 performance when he combined for a 3.17 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP over 167 2/3 innings. The Twins remain confident that DeSclafani will be able to make starts for the team early in the season. Minnesota won’t need a fifth starter for the first week and half of the season, so he can begin the year on the injured list before joining the rotation. “I’m still optimistic about him pitching early in the year for us, but we’re going to take the time to do it the right way,” Baldelli said. “We’re going to make sure we take care of him, and then we ramp him. It’s clearly not going to be an ultra-aggressive ramp-up. It’s going to be a ramp-up that we know we have to take a little bit of time each step of the way and do it the right way because we’re doing this for the long haul, not just to try to get him back out there on the mound. But again, I’m optimistic.” When injuries impact the rotation, the Twins have depth waiting in the wings at Triple-A. Louie Varland currently sits in the sixth spot on the depth chart and will be the first player called up from Triple-A. Other pitchers expected to pitch at St. Paul this season include some of the team’s top pitching prospects like David Festa, Simeon Woods-Richardson, Brent Headrick, and Marco Raya. The Twins would like to wait until further into the season to dig into their pitching depth, but injuries might force a change in the season's early weeks. What are your expectations for the back end of the rotation? How many innings will Paddack and DeSclafani pitch for the Twins in 2024? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

The Minnesota Twins’ front office attempted to add a playoff-caliber starter this offseason, to no avail. Enter Bailey Ober, and a new pitch mix that might push him to the top of the starting rotation. Image courtesy of William Parmeter Losing Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda from the starting rotation would be a tough pill to swallow for any organization. Gray was the AL Cy Young runner-up, and Maeda pitched well down the stretch leading into the playoffs. Minnesota’s front office talked about adding a starting pitcher earlier in the offseason, but with the team’s self-imposed payroll cut, that would have been a tricky proposition. Free agent options were too expensive, and trading for a frontline starting pitcher often requires top prospects to be included in the deal. For those reasons, the Twins will rely on internal starting pitching options to take the next step in 2024. Spring training is a time for pitchers to work on things, to prepare for the upcoming season. Some hurlers have worked on refining specific pitches throughout the winter and spring training games, which are the first opportunity for fans to see these offerings. Multiple Twins pitchers have unveiled new pitches this spring, but Bailey Ober’s new pitch mix might be something that can elevate him from a mid-rotation arm to a playoff-caliber starter. During the 2023 season, Ober used a four-pitch mix, which included a four-seam fastball, changeup, slider/sweeper, and curveball. Throughout his big-league career, he has relied less on his fastball, with a 12.3% usage drop from 2021 to 2023. His changeup usage has increased in each of his first three seasons, including being his second most-used pitch last season (28%). Bailey Ober, 2023 Pitch Break Chart Last season, he saw a 5% increase in his Whiff% with his fastball, which will help set up his other offspeed offerings. Many believed he needed one more pitch, a harder breaking ball that could round out his pitch mix. Multiple Twins pitchers have been showcasing what is viewed as a gyro slider during spring training games. Last season, Ober's slider averaged 81.0 mph; his new version of the pitch has an increased velocity of 86.0 mph, with more glove-side break. Following one of his spring appearances, he told reporters, “Cutter, slider, whatever you want to call it. Something that’s hard and goes left.” Ober has also increased his release height while keeping his extension the same. These changes have helped him to add more ride to his fastball while increasing its velocity. His pitch mix now includes five pitches, with a four-seamer, gyro slider (marked below as a cutter), sweeper, curveball, and changeup. Bailey Ober, 2024 Pitch Break Chart His Stuff+ on his spring offerings has also seen some substantial increases. His fastball ranked slightly below average last season with a 94 Stuff+, but he has increased that to a 110 Stuff+ in his start on March 2. According to Stuff+, his slider was his best pitch last season, at 99. His tweaks to that pitch have moved it to 102. During spring training, there are small sample sizes to consider with pitchers, but the changes to his pitch mix continue to be encouraging. Earlier in spring training, I discussed the possibility of Ober being an extension candidate for the Twins. His price will likely increase throughout the 2024 season as he approaches free agency and his performance improves. The Twins need their young pitchers to take the next step if they want to win the division and make a deeper playoff run this season. Will Ober be able to translate his improved performance into the regular season? Can he be a playoff-caliber starter that the team needs? Leave a comment to start the discussion. View full article