Woof Bronzer

I'm not asking about the outcome of a ball in play. I'm asking about the outcome of an at-bat. The Twins have grounded into 63 dps and have 708 hits. So by putting the ball in play they are 10x more likely to get a hit vs a dp. They've also struck out 916 times. So the team has 7x more outs via K than via GIDP. This narrative that strikeouts are preferable to putting the ball in play, on the off chance you ground into a dp, needs to stop. It's factually false. I truly cannot understand how someone can watch the 2023 Twins and say, yep, Ks are fine, just a type of out.

That Falvey quote seems to confirm what I have long suspected: he doesn't really see a problem here. Or rather, the problem is bad luck and a couple uncharacteristic poor performances (setting aside the fact Gallo, Kepler, and others are performing exactly to their stats.) This is "process is more important than results" in the extreme. 2.5 years of this and "nothing to see here". Truly, truly insane. We cannot afford to hold on to this FO much longer. They are quite simply running this franchise into the ground. I for one will not be investing a penny in this club until the FO is gone. I hold no illusion that it will happen mid season, but the housecleaning needs to happen day 1 of the offseason so the long difficult work of rebuilding this franchise can begin. I am very nervous about the trade deadline further setting the franchise back. If there's a silver lining it sure doesn't feel like Falvine thinks their job is on the line here so perhaps they'll be less inclined to make desperate short-term-only moves.

-moving the goalposts -dismissing any information that doesn't fit your narrative -attacking the people whose opinions you disagree with instead of the opinion -implying the entire world agrees with your opinion I've got to hand it to you, you are the bad faith internet troll equivalent of a 5-tool prospect. You can do it all!

I already gave you one! As I said, it appears you've done what you accuse your opponents of doing: not reading my post. It was 3 sentences long, one of which was the quote. Again, congrats.

Let's start with the first line of your post: Did you even bother to read their original post? it's that y'all refuse to engage with the conversation honestly. the clowns in this thread it's clear what you're really attempting to accomplish is pedantry or anti-intellectualism. I just can't figure out why you would waste your time with them There's more, shall I continue?

Congratulations, you've managed to accomplish several amazing things here: -doing the exact thing you accuse your opponents of doing -suggesting that anything you disagree with is "anti-intellectual" -constructing incredible strawmen, then barely even knocking them down -suggesting the only way anyone could disagree with you is because they didn't read the post -suggesting that anyone who disagrees with you is acting in bad faith -every accusation is a confession (re: "trolls") Again, very well done my friend.

The Twins are 36-42 against all non-Royals teams.

Off the top of my head, Gleeman, Hayes, every analytics-driven baseball writer ever, several of the posters here, the Twins front office.... I believe the direct quote I heard from Gleeman on the radio earlier this year was "no MLB team cares about batting average". Which is obviously a lie, but goes to show the extent to which the hardcore analytics guys are willing to die on the BA hill.

Of the few available outcomes for an at-bat - walk/HBP, put the ball in play, or strikeout - which is worse than a strikeout?

How does the OP define "accountability"? What concrete thing did Rocco do to hold a player accountable? The team has literally made no changes since his rant. They hit for 4 innings, then got tired off all the accountability and reverted right back to the same old same old for the last 22 innings of the series. There's no "reset", there's no leadership, and there's no accountability.

Agree, which is why I don't quite get why it's so hard to say the trade is looking poor right now and Arraez would undoubtedly be helping the 23 Twins, but the problems go much deeper than that.

Not what I said, but I'll take the bait: can you point to a single demonstrable example over the past 30 years where this franchise put winning ahead of profits?

Lol they're drawing 23k a game and I believe they're up over last year. Corporations exist to make profit - that's just a fact. (To paraphrase Milton Friedman, a corporation's sole obligation to society is maximizing shareholder value.) The Twins are one asset in a diverse Pohland portfolio. They're a line on a P&L report. All corporations must balance investment with expected returns. The Twins have always walked this fine line and have historically seemed to target being competitive in the division as the balance - give yourself a chance to get into the playoffs, but don't break the bank chasing a Series. This way fans will stay interested over the course of 81 home games, which is a much more stable proposition than the uncertainty of the playoffs. Too much losing and they'll lose fans (and therefore revenue); so yes, the team is interested in winning as a strategy to maximize profits. But I have seen zero proof from the Pohlad sons and grandsons that they are interested in winning for winning's sake. Have they ever gone beyond their "payroll is set at 50% of revenue" in the interest of legitimately chasing a World Series? If not, do they truly care about winning? Corporations can't reasonably accomplish more than a couple broad goals, and usually it's all in service of the bottom line. For example, a corp might say, in order to differentiate ourselves from the competition (and thus maximize profit), we're going to have the best customer service. They build strategic plans around that, and if they are reading the market correctly, their success or failure is dependent on their ability to execute those plans. But a company that doesn't prioritize customer service isn't going to accidentally have great customer service. Saying the Pohlads care about winning is like saying Comcast cares about customer service - I'm sure they feel it would be a nice to have, they're never going to say "we hate customer service", but they clearly don't believe the cost-benefit of investing more in customer service is there. And like customer service, winning doesn't happen accidentally. As evidence I will point to 1 playoff series win in 30 years. But hey, don't take it from me, take it from Dave St. Peter, who said the problem with last September's meltdown wasn't the losing, but the lack of fans showing up at the park to empty their wallets.

How good were the Marlins last year with Lopez?

So it's not the roster? How much have the Angels won during Trout's career? He must not be a good player either. The idea that Arraez would not be helping this team is absolutely bizarre.

As long as fans keep showing up to TF and spending wads of cash I don't think the Pohlads will be motivated to do anything. It took a Total System Failure (i.e. significant loss of revenue) after 5 years of ineptitude to move on from the Ryan era.

I think this is really astute. I'd say they are MBAs trying to do high level statistics as I tend to think they fundamentally misunderstand the science and nuance of statistics. For example, just because data suggests bunts are not the most efficient way to score piles of runs over the long run doesn't mean there isn't a time and place for a bunt. And large sample size averages are not particularly meaningful for in-game decisions because you need to account for the specifics of the situation which are almost never "average" or neutral. Where it gets really odd though is they will also look at a guy like J Lopez or Pagan where almost all the advanced metrics point to them being terrible, but they decide to ignore this and just hope & pray they can change them. Not to mention other "old school" stuff like only using Duran in save situations. I won't pretend that process isn't important, but they don't even have a coherent process.

Ask former #1 prospect Austin Martin...

This is the key point and why I "retracted" my comment. I have said for a while that even if he's fired (he won't be) he'll just be replaced with a replica. I will say that sports are a results based business though. And I wish this organization, from top to bottom, was more focused on results. Coaches are rarely if ever fired for having a bad process. They're fired for losing.

Actually, I retract the question. With this FO nothing is off the table.

Do you think Rocco gets paid to win? Or does he get paid to have a sweet process?

We're all upset but if Falvine would rather lose several games over the past 2 years with Pagan and Kepler than cut bait and admit they were wrong, there's a far, far, far better chance they'd hire either of those 2 as hitting coach than bring back Paul Molitor.

Sorry I was unclear. The point I was trying to make was, don't build your lineup around which way the wind is blowing that day and the dimensions out in right field and the handedness of the opener. Build it around the best available players you have. Atlanta trotted out the same lineup all 3 games I believe.

How has this type of convoluted over-thinking worked out for the Twins? Baseball is a game. Play your best players.

If I'm ranking biggest problems: 1. Ownership. It's no accident that the team's 30 year run of ineptitude has coincided with the Pohlad sons and now grandsons running the show. Call it the franchise's Corporate Era. 2. Front office. These guys are clearly in way, way over their head. Is Derek Falvey really one of the 30 best performers at his job on the planet? A smart but inexperienced leader would surround themselves with people who've done it before with success; Falvine surround themselves with young, inexperienced yes men like Baldelli and Popkins. 3. Correa. He needs to eat a steady diet of humble pie, and he needs to focus less on being the legendary leader/honorary GM he has anointed himself to be, and more on being a better baseball player. 4. Buxton. His performance is actively hurting the team. 5. Coaching staff. If they aren't part of the problem then coaches/managers truly are meaningless.