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Woof Bronzer

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Everything posted by Woof Bronzer

  1. Woof Bronzer
    Lol yes, that's exactly what I'm saying. The Gallo thing worked great, let's do more of that.
  2. Woof Bronzer
    The Twins have 10x as many hits as GIDPs. And double plays are the result of a ball in play, not the result of a plate appearance. If hitters had total control over what happened when they put the ball in play they'd choose to hit home runs every time. Again, 30% of all balls in play become hits. 0% of strikeouts become hits. But....you can't score runs if you strikeout though. I truly do not understand this argument. One can make the argument that for certain hitters, high Ks are ok because of what that hitter does when he doesn't K. I'm with you there! One cannot make the argument that a strikeout is not the worse available outcome of a plate appearance. It's just a fact.
  3. Woof Bronzer
    I'm actually with you on WAR - I think it's one of many tools for FOs to identify talent, but should not be used to measure actual performance (that's not what it does). However I do think it has become one of those stats that people use to defend a opinion when it suits them, and that people dismiss when it doesn't fit their narrative. We disagree on Correa. Simmons played great D in 2021 too. We didn't sign Correa to the richest deal in team history to simply play good D. Let's hope he's better next year!
  4. Woof Bronzer
    Correct, a home run is one of the many available outcomes of putting a ball in play. Can't hit a home run if you strikeout though! A triple play is the outcome of a ball in play, not a plate appearance (unless you are suggesting hitters willfully decide to hit into a triple play? Which would be weird.) A ball in play is about 100,000x more likely to turn into a hit vs a triple play, so if you are suggesting strikeouts are preferable to putting a ball in play because of the extraordinarily rare occurrence of a triple play, then we just disagree. For those of you who continue to insist that strikeouts are fine: why don't we fill our starting rotation with pitch to contact guys? They'd be much, much cheaper, and if strikeouts are just another out, velocity really doesn't matter. You in?
  5. Woof Bronzer
    30% of balls in play become hits. 0% of strikeouts do. A strikeout is factually the worst of the available outcomes of a plate appearance. As you say, a player needs to have a very long career to end up on a list like this. A guy who strikes out too much isn't going to last long in the league, because strikeouts are bad. Let's look at single season K rates. Here are the 5 highest in history; Mark Reynolds Adam Dunn Chris Davis Yoan Moncada Joey Gallo As my dog likes to say: woof.
  6. Woof Bronzer
    The Astros have finished in the bottom 5 every year since 2016 I believe. How has avoiding strikeouts worked for them?
  7. Woof Bronzer
    Call me crazy, but I'm pretty sure you need baserunners in order to score runs. Not striking out means either putting the ball in play or walking/HBP, which leads to baserunners, which leads to runs. Do you have any examples where a strikeout led to runs?
  8. Woof Bronzer
    Direct quote: The quality and depth of Minnesota's rotation this year gives them an advantage heading into the playoffs that few teams have ever enjoyed. And I'm not just talking about Twins teams. Rarely will you ever see a playoff-bound club this loaded with high-end starting pitching. Unless we have different definitions of the words "ever", "rarely", and "I'm not just talking about Twins teams", that's exactly what you said.
  9. Woof Bronzer
    an advantage heading into the playoffs that few teams have ever enjoyed. And I'm not just talking about Twins teams. The only team the Twins will have a clear starting pitching advantage over is Texas, and they're so hot it's looking increasingly unlikely that we face them. Implying that the Twins top 2 is one of the biggest advantages in the 120 year history of the playoffs is just hilarious. Hawt take culture is alive and well! Here on planet earth, starting pitching is definitely the Twins strength. Bullpen is one of, if not the primary, weakness. However, no Twins starter has ever gone more than 5 IP in a playoff start under the Falvine regime. I'm already seeing articles on TD on how long the pitchers are going to pitch. If the Twins are going to yank their starters after 4 or 5 irrespective of actual performance, they are neutralizing their strength in order to lean into their weakness, and they will lose both games just like they lost G1 in 2019 when they yanked Berrios after 4 in order to pitch legendary reliever Zach Littel. If the Twins actually want to win a series they are going to need their starters to go deep. Otherwise any "advantage" we have will be meaningless.
  10. Woof Bronzer
    This isn't the first TD article to suggest that the Twins would have been worse off if they'd acquired better players at the deadline. The hottest of hot takes. Bigger indictment is the theory that underpins this article: that the only goal for the Twins is winning the putrid Central. Says so, so much about this franchise.
  11. Woof Bronzer
    Is anyone else getting an ominous feeling about the silence re: Lewis' MRI yesterday?
  12. Woof Bronzer
    Agree but WAR is perhaps the most egregious "expected stats" projection out there. Don't get me wrong, WAR has a place in front offices trying to evaluate talent, but it absolutely should not be used for awards. And don't get me started on WPA. I'd also sub in RA/9 for ERA to take the judgement call out of it.
  13. Woof Bronzer
    Gallo over Buxton.
  14. Woof Bronzer
    He's 10th on the team in WAR among hitters. His performance is very similar to our last SS, Andrelton Simmons in 21, at 3x the cost. Simmons' performance gets him run out of town; Correa, for some reason, gets praised. Truly baffling.
  15. Woof Bronzer
    The Twins did not face any of the Stros top 3 starters, and the games were all early in the season when Houston was still sleepwalking. The season series is not particularly meaningful. I'm guessing a similar article was written in 2020 before the playoffs. Houston is a serious franchise. They do what they need to do in the regular season, and ramp it up in the playoffs.
  16. Woof Bronzer
    I cannot believe the Twins would consider starting him at DH for the playoffs.
  17. Woof Bronzer
    WAR disagrees with you...at a minimum I'd say it's "questionable"...either way not impactful enough that a mid season IL stay would have had any meaningful impact on the Twins' season.
  18. Woof Bronzer
    I hope so, but given the past few years I think it's fair to question the club's approach to injury management. It would just be so silly if he's at 50% for the playoffs when he could have sat for, whatever, all of July with zero negative impact to the team. Then again, it does sound like a challenging issue to deal with, not like your typical injuries where rest is the cure, so maybe it wouldn't have helped. And who knows, maybe he'll be all good for October. Just another frustrating injury issue for a club very familiar with them.
  19. Woof Bronzer
    Counterpoint: being a "gamer" hurt the team due to his very poor performance, and it sure looks like it will hurt the team's playoff chances because he didn't take the time during the season to allow his foot to heal in time for the games that really matter.
  20. Woof Bronzer
    Not a good matchup for the Twins. Mariners neutralize the Twins' strength with stronger starting pitching, Rodriguez is a super Lewis, bullpen is slightly better, etc. (Though Seattle has to be kicking themselves for trading away their closer.) They're similar to the Twins except slightly better in most if not all areas. That said, if the postseason was about who's better on paper we wouldn't play the games :)
  21. Woof Bronzer
    It's tough. Ryan has simply not been good in his career against good competition. But I don't trust Maeda as a #3 either. I just heard Falvey on KFAN saying starters get pulled earlier in the playoffs. Here we go - my biggest fear for these playoffs. Get ready for the Twins to try to win this series by neutralizing their strength (starting pitching) in order to live or die by their "not a priority" weakness (bullpen). And we're not even going to have a starting pitching advantage to begin with if we play Seattle or Toronto (and Texas has 2 lefty options). But if Falvey is going to implement a 4/5-and-fly for starters, like he has in every single playoff game during his tenure, it really doesn't matter who starts. The series will be won and lost in innings 5-9.
  22. Woof Bronzer
    I'd say ask the medical staff instead. If players are going to make medical decisions I don't know why we have a medical staff. And Carlos' decision to play injured has hurt the team.
  23. Woof Bronzer
    Royce Lewis. Dude. This will come as a shock to no one, but I've been down on this team so far. Honestly they are trending in the right direction. And Lewis can legit win a series for us. I mean this in all sincerity: it's his team now. And if he goes on a playoff run....I can't believe I'm doing this to myself. But seriously. Royce Lewis.
  24. Woof Bronzer
    If the job is to just read a chart they'd just pay you or me to do it, for much less than they pay Rocco :)
  25. Woof Bronzer
    I hear what you are saying and it's very fair. But your definition of "sustained success" differs from mine. It has literally been 20 years since this franchise has won a playoff series. I can't name a single well-reputed GM or manager who never won a playoff game. Maybe that's not fair but results matter no? Anyway. The team is actually trending the right way, even a grump like me has to like the offense lately. I'm just bracing myself like a jaded MN sports fan :)
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