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Hawkeye Bean Counter

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Everything posted by Hawkeye Bean Counter

  1. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Yes, it appears he would like to go - but if drafted has a a high bonus demand. Right now the most likely candidates to sign a player like that would be 1. Pittsburg, likely have plenty of ammo after likely signing Skenes to a below slot deal, and possibly the Twins, who also possibly got a below market deal their first 2 picks - its hard to say if the Twins have any savings on their first 3 picks but history shows they likely do. Detroit may have also gotten a deal on Clark as well.
  2. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    I think the Soto pick was slightly surprising as it wasn't a college player. However the Twins have been willing to take high end HS pitchers shown by the Raya and Petty. As to Keaschall, they may have thought there were higher rated prospects, however if he performs like Schobel, the Twins will have confirmation on picking him where he went. He is a bit of a pop up prospect and seems like he checks off the character category in spades. Go look at most Twins drafts the last couple years, other than last years early picks, they have been continually trashed and fans and media usually highly dislike day 2 and 3 picks, yet they tend to strongly outperform on these picks.
  3. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    I know some get frustrated with the front office and drafting and especially day 2 but lets even just look at last years draft. 1. Lee 800 OPS in AA - had a heck of a game yesterday, if he can get up to 850 or higher OPS will continue to be a very highly rated prospect. He has a ton of doubles, if a few more of those turn into home runs his OPS will jump. 2. Priellip, injured but looks to still have the elite arm talent worthy of draft slot. 2B. Schobel - one of best hitters in A+ ball 840 OPS over 1.000 OPS in June 4. Morris - Low 3 ERA in A ball 5. Ross - 780 OPS A+ 6. Ortega - 820 OPS A+ 7. Jones -4.53 ERA A+ 8. Matthews - 3.7 ERA A+ 9. Lewis - 2.29 ERA A+ 10. Shuffield - 780 OPS A ball 11. Cossetti - 950 OPS A+ Ball Now all these players will likely not perform as they move up, but some well, and the more you have - the better chance 1 or more will be solid or better MLB players. Right now the success rate on last years draft is stupidly good, and that is currently without Priellip being healthy and pitching.
  4. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Since 2018, the Twins have outproduced their draft capital and have used a lot of it to supplement their big league team. Right now the teams are some of the most competitive in the minor leagues than they have ever been and will have multiple reinforcements coming with this draft. I hate playing next years draft as well, but the Twins will likely again have multiple picks, possibly 4 in the top 2 rounds. Drafting is hit and miss. I think the primary thing which I like the last year or two, is the Twins refocusing on hit tool, rather than just power. That should pay dividends in the future.
  5. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    The other pick that has been mentioned and most would love is Cameron Johnson. 6'5" - has elite arm talent and is a lefty. There are some signability concerns. Another possibility the Twins or another team have something set up with the player. Will have to wait and see.
  6. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Doc, what this draft is telling you is a couple things, the Twins are placing a premium on character, and then looking to see if the player has the tools that match the character. All 3 picks so far this year, the character has been off the charts. The Twins said Keaschall was one of the most impressive people they interviewed. Hey I am good with that. If he performs as well as Schobel we will be happy.
  7. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Wide net to cast. If I were a betting man based on their previous mutual interest between the player and team, I could see Hurley. beyond that gets a bit more murky. If not another bat, would be college pitcher that they like of the ones remaining. Hunter Owen is 6'6", He has a fastball that could improve, slight health issues. Has SO/9 of 10.7, last year 12.8. Watts-Brown is 6'3" had an eye popping 13.6 SO/9. Had some control issues and needs to gain some speed on the fastball. Tanner Witt is 6'5", seems like someone you could get later in the draft. Really struggled after injury but has the arm talent. Mcgraw has elite arm talent but hasn't been able to stay healthy. As to the bats not sure who they would be focusing on.
  8. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    You are looking at next years need vs where these prospects will be at which is low A, High A and AA. As to next year, the top of your rotation is headed by Lopez and Ryan, then Ober as a reliable #3. Then you will have Varland, Paddack who should be back, plus possibly 1-2 others who the Twins will sign in free agency. You will still have others such as Winder who could be a 5th starter. For future years, Raya, Festa, Priellipp (? regarding health) , SWR, Matthews, Lewis and even Culpepper give you enough arms that could potentially be starters. Then you can develop Soto and whoever else the Twins draft this year. This is also ignoring that we can offer a Qualifying offer to Gray. Either he takes it, assuming he doesn't fall apart the remainder of the season, or he gets signed and we receive a comp pick in next years draft. We have a legitimate shot at 3 picks in the first round which should again be a strong draft due to the residuals of Covid and the 2020 draft year.
  9. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    If what happens with our 3rd pick happens and I have a sneaky suspicion we get Hurley, and this was just a swapping of picks because they really liked Keaschall, I think everyone will be very happy with this draft. We will have 4 very high rated prospects. Even if it is not Hurley the draft will be a success, it will just be filling in with prospects the Twins hope they can develop a few diamonds in the rough.
  10. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Where exactly are we short on pitching prospects? We pick just as many pitchers as batters its that we tend to pick them later, as the Twins have a fairly strong plan that has identified pitchers that can have additional success with better coaching. This has had good success in the last couple of years.
  11. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    RJA I get exactly what you are saying. However your parameters are so restrictive it takes away of the overall strategy of what the Twins have done. The other is the depth of the Twins pitching staff and in the minors should make it less necessary for the Twins to make multiple trades for pitching in the future.
  12. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Heck of a first day for the draft. I expect to see 2-4 college hitters in the next several picks and then a slew of developmental pitchers based on past history. I am curious to see if the Twins cut a deal with Hurley, or someone else for there 3rd round pick, a la Blayne Enlow. May have been a situation where they flip flopped 2nd and 3rd picks because they thought they could get the other player later. Not sure will have to wait and see. Having 2 high upside picks in the first round will be fun to watch them develop. Now we are getting to where the Twins have excelled in the last couple of years. Find college bats early, and then pick lots and lots of arms. They have said this was a deep draft in the early rounds because of the 2020 pandemic almost combining 2 years together. I will be curious if the depth in the later rounds will carry through.
  13. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Its easier to get a league average Catcher than it is to get a #1 or #2 starting pitcher. Ultimately the ceiling of each greatly changes the value. If you only see Lowder as a #3/#4 I think you are drastically undercutting his potential.
  14. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    The reasoning is we can flip hitters for pitching, which we flipped Arreaz. As to 1st round, who cares if its first round or not, they are going with the law of averages, and to have both Steer and CES used in a trade even if I disagreed with it, is a valid claim. I don't get excluding 1st rounders as a valid argument. Yes a couple of the 1st rounders haven't panned out, but a majority have big league talent, it is just needing to show their full potential on the field.
  15. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Are we just going to ignore Varland, Winder, Jax (selected by previous management, developed under their leadership) - Petty Hajjar and Povich who all performed well enough to be traded for good assets - Priellip is a bit of question mark although twins thnk farther along than they expected and then Matthews and Lewis are far outperforming. For the amount of capital invested in pitching in the draft, the Twins have far outperformed expectations under current managements leadership. I think the current concern is the current lack of contact by the current team. However yesterdays game, was more of an out of this world defense than anything. Easily could have had 2-3 more runs in a smaller ball park or with not elite defense in centerfield, the robbed hit of Buxton and what would have been a homer by Castro in 15 other parks.
  16. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    I think it is quite strong to call Clark or Jenkins a generational talent. The only generational talents are Skenes and Crews. Both would have been the number 1 picks in the last 5-6 drafts. As to Langford, he is right up there just a tad behind. Likely a 1st round pick in many of the previous 6 years. Clark and Jenkins both don't seem like can't miss prospects. Clark, not enough power, Jenkins still has some holes in his swing. Give me a more polished hitter that shows can hit elite pitching or an elite pitcher. To me there are 3 elite prospects and likely only 2 that the Twins would consider at 5 which is disappointing. I do think Teel could be the Twins pick. Will just have to wait and see.
  17. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    If it is true that Boras and Crews want nothing to do with Pittsburg that is exactly what the Twins need to happen in this draft. In stead of Clark falling to 10, a very real possibility Clark goes 1 at a discounted price. That drops the big 3 down to picks 2-4 and the Twins money can then come into play, along with the Texans being high on the high school players as well. That would allow either Skenes or Langford to fall to 5. That is the best case outcome for the Twins or something funky that would allow Crews to get to 5 which would be crazy town.
  18. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    What does everyone think of Quinn Matthews - Currently ranked around 110 but could go higher after good performance in CWS, however has had extremely high pitch totals. Has high strike out rate, ok fastball 94 mph, improving control. If available in the 4th or if taken early in the third, would you do it. He would match up with Twins preference of tall and lanky pitcher add in he is a left hander :). These are the rounds where Twins typically pound hitting, however, this would be a solid pick that could also get some savings being a college senior. The throw in his 156 pitch count in his last game . . . will be curious to see where he goes.
  19. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    I am predicting our 3rd sweep of the year. Gallo, Correa and the rest of the bats go off. Gallo gets at least 2 HR's against a depleted tigers pitching squad for this series.
  20. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    To me though there 3 elite picks. Crews, Langford, Skenes and the most likely scenario is those players effectively go chalk in the first 3 picks There is rumors and articles even on this site stating if Skenes is available or the high school bats the Twins would prefer to go a college bat route. Currently here is who most teams are tied to Pirates - Most likely Crews - possibility of under slot deal to Clark Nationals - Skenes seems most likely, and of the top 4 this is his most likely destination otherwise could drop. Have done a lot of evaluation on Jenkins Tigers - Tight lipped, but favor college bats. If Crews were to somehow fall, Tigers scoop him up, most likely Langford Rangers - appears to prefer the high school players. Currently most think Jenkins is rated higher than Clark Crews is likely gone by pick 3 in any scenario. Skenes is most likely picked at 2, if not could drop to 5. Langford is most likely Detroit, if something funky happened could fall to 5 and I believe this is the Twins ideal draft scenario. The high school kids ultimately could go anywhere. Maybe the Twins would pick one of the high school kids, but they have preferred the college route due to less risk (think Cavaco). The Twins do have the 4th most money, but for that to take place you are going to need 1 to 2 players do below market deals for the money to even come into play.
  21. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    If we are let down by the first pick, possibility they can have a major overpay at 34. Jacob Gonzalez and then book ended with someone like Thomas White. Or draft noble Meyer at an under slot contract and pick up a very good bat at the end of 34. It would be getting cute, but I would be fine with that I suppose. Still hoping some how some way Langford drops to us at 5. That would open up the rest of the draft for the way the Twins like to draft.
  22. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Also - we might have something with Corey Lewis. The Twins were able to improve his velocity to 92 to 94 mph on his fastball. There is also a possibility he improves a tick or two as well. The curve ball is an elite pitch. The slider has been a work in progress. However as stated its his modified Knuckle that adds intrigue. Lewis was becoming a legit prospect with his new found mechanics and increased velocity. He is now a pitcher that adds a knuckleball to his repertoire, not a knuckler trying to be a pitcher. His modified Knuckle pitch sounds interesting, as he throws it faster than the traditional pitch, but the other thing is he seems to have an immense feel for the pitch that does not require him to throw it, 50, 60 or 85% of the time to be effective. He has now thrown a couple games granted A ball and now high A ball, where they could not touch him (a combined no hitter and now a shut out). His issue has been control in college and with 56 strikes out of 80 pitches, that is excellent. Other than some slight tweaks on the fastball, you may see a fast riser in the system. I wouldn't be surprised at an additional promotion to AA by the end of the summer.
  23. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Curious what the injury to Austin Martin is now.
  24. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    I haven't heard specific issues on Clark attitude issues, however what has been stated is of the 2 high school kids Jenkins is just a superb individual with good family background (think Mauer). So when you are looking at the 2 between that Jenkins I have heard gets the slight leg up but that is not to say there has been anything negative about Clark I can find.
  25. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    For #5 Give me Langford based on the Twins tendencies. As to #34 - It is a bit unorthodox and a bit of a gamble that he can remain in the outfield. Even still he could be a decent 1st baseman - Nolan Schanuel. It does feel a bit like a Sabato all over again with the upside he could play in the outfield. Schanuel is probably the 3rd best bat in the draft based of this years stats. He has a 60 hit tool, and has an extremely good eye which results in a high OBP. he had 3 home runs against Florida so its not like he has not performed against better pitching. If you could end up with Langford (or my personal favorite Skenes) and Schanuel - that would be a heck of a start to the draft.
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