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Hawkeye Bean Counter

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Everything posted by Hawkeye Bean Counter

  1. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    I think we have enough of those in the system right now. Give me a pick in the 29-34 range. It comes before the competitive balance. Unless he falls off a cliff he will get a 3 year deal for over 50 mil. That is calculation of nearly a 5 war over the contract. He will be near a 4 WAR this year. Now if he is serious about retiring this is all moot. Now I don't think next years draft will be as strong as this one, but in that range this year you have Soto and White. Even still you can find a very nice prospect that is worth more that a 4-5 mlb pitcher. The below is from a cardinals website. Sonny Gray - Sonny Gray has been very consistent in his career. He sports a 3.52 ERA, a 119 ERA+, a 3.61 FIP, and a 1.216 WHIP. He strikes out just under nine batters per nine innings. He is currently in one of the best seasons of his career while pitching for the Minnesota Twins. Through 99.2 innings, he has a 2.89 ERA, 2.85 FIP, 149 ERA+, and has given up a total of 3 home runs in 18 starts. He will be 34 for all of next year, and it's reasonable to assume he will garner a lot of attention from a variety of teams. Pitchers with a similar track record and age who have recently been free agents include Chris Bassitt, Nathan Eovaldi, and Jose Quintana. All three of these players signed for an AAV of around $20 million with a contract length of three years. There will be fewer high-end starters on the market this upcoming season compared to last season, so expect these mid-range starters to earn more money than last year's mid-range starters. Gray's age is hurting the potential length of his contract in the end. Contract Prediction: Three years, $69 million ($23 million AAV)
  2. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Eh, this is like any business. I think Twins have been very good in your contracts. You and a few others seem jaded towards this organization claiming you are already done with the front office. So if it is Boras trying to get more money over slot, or more than agreed to, how is that exactly a Twins issue? Boras needs to try to get the maximum money for his client, the Twins try to keep towards a budget. Langford went overslot and Boras is likely trying to do the same here.
  3. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    I disagree 100%. Gray is a workhorse, and I doubt someone will overpay in trade capital, however I strongly think Sonny will not retire and and the Twins can get another #1 draft pick for him in the 2024 draft. That is tremendous value. Essentially you are able to pick a player like a Soto or Petty. We are already at about a 6 WAR from Gray for the 2 seasons so far. A 6 WAR and #1 draft pick is a very good return. Petty has had ups and downs, was shut down for 2 months to start the year. He has been doing very good at A+ ball. Even still Petty has to be a #1 or high #2 pitcher in MLB to offset the value the Twins got for Gray. As of now this is a trade with the Twins ahead but may be a trade where both teams win. I think we have 6 arms moving forward with Keuchel coming up to help the workload moving forward or take a full spot if someone were to get injured. I really think the Twins have plenty of arms to do well in the post season. As to RP, I am content standing pat as well, however if a deal presents itself to add value to the team I am all for it.
  4. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    This isn't going to be any decent prospect. Whether arm or bat, I am thinking a player like Prato, Helman or Holland (all who would need to be protected in rule V) - You also have Isola at C who would need to be protected who was also drafted in 2019 draft. Maybe a minor arm or two as well but nothing the level of a Wallner ect.
  5. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    The Twins have already said they want another reliever, however, if everyone comes back healthy we might actually dare I say have a fairly stacked bullpen. Balazovic has been a nice surprise had in Stewart, Thielbar and possibly Alacala and we seem to have plenty of arms. You likely need another above average arm to do well in the post season. We will see who the Twins target and if they can get anything done. Likely not an all in deal like last year.
  6. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    I anticipate we aren't touching any prospect in our top 5-10. I think the Twins will not be looking at big prospects. Think of something like what we did with Detroit last year for Fulmer. I could also see us trading a player or two from the current roster or demoting to AAA.
  7. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    With the agent I think everything is fine on the Jenkins front. Likely either negotiating a little more money or possible working on something to sign either 19 or 20 prospect.
  8. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Just saw a ranking that had the top 60 prospects and had Rodriguez a couple spots ahead of Jenkins both in the top 30 along with Lee.
  9. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    I understand underrating the just drafted players but there is some major issues here. Jenkins below Rodriguez? Jenkins is likely a top 100 prospect and then you have Winokur no where to be found? Pitching is where I think your rankings are way off. Soto is above Festa and its not even a question. Hall is a much more refined and quality pitcher than Morris, again no where to be found. By the end of this season or middle of next season I have a feeling much of your 12 to 20 pitching prospects will be dominated by the 2023 draft class. I can understand not rating them until they show up, but I would have Quested and Dunn on the list now. Pasqualotto Langenberg Lee and Dougherty are all likely better than your 13-16 prospects now but I am willing to let this play out first.
  10. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    I am sure they agreed to an amount, but even so you read the article it says he appreciates the coaches and college but going to mlb was always his goal. Pretty clear he is signing.
  11. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    https://www.hawkcentral.com/story/sports/college/iowa/baseball/2023/07/11/minnesota-twins-select-iowa-baseball-ty-langenberg-in-11th-round-of-mlb-draft-hawkeyes/70397411007/
  12. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Doc, I agree with everything you said. An even though I said even I still rank Lee ahead of Jenkins in a ranking. Priellip is so difficult, all the arm talent in the world, but hasn't been able to throw for essentially 3 years. I hope they are babying him, I really do, the worry is he need another tommy John and gone for the next 2 years. Yes that would suck. You make that pick every day though. The drafts really matched up except they sprinkled in more high school players at the top. The difference was the quality of arms from rounds 8-15. The Twins got to #1 starters of players at major colleges with good programs in the 11th and 12th round. Langenberg and Pasqualotto are amazing picks, good stuff and know how to pitch. Can they improve them enough to make them legitimate MLB level players? Add in Dunn who already has some elite pitches, but some command issues and I would be shocked if at least 1 of those doesn't hit and more than likely all 3 will look very strong at the A and A+ level and then AA becomes the separator on whether they are legit prospects or not. Someone posted the arms primarily consisted of 3 categories after the 2 high school kids were picked. Pitchers who slightly underperformed expectations from last year, were recovering from injury, and lastly small colleges.
  13. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    The biggest difference in this draft was the quality of pitching prospects even in the mid to late rounds. Elite - Soto - he has the chance to be a #1 pitcher. He has good velocity, movement and command. Needs to continue to develop. High Ceiling low floor HS pitcher - Questad is a very interesting pick. It will be interesting to see how he develops Good pitchers need to improve velocity and pitches - Hall Stoffal, Langenberg, Lee, Pasqualatto, Bragg Currently throwers need to develop more command and refine pitches - Dunn, Hamilton, Bengard, Silvas, Garcia If you look at just the good pitchers category I think you can effectively have a very solid A Ball pitching staff. The majority of these pitchers have been starters, ultimately even though we needed some pitching prospects, we won't have enough spots for all these players as starters. It will be curious to see which players they throw in the pen and who they leave as starters. Gut feel I think Soto develops into a #1 or #2, 2 develop from the good pitcher category and 1 to 2 develop from the thrower category into either starters or relievers. If we can have 4-5 legit prospects develop from this class that would be great, top it off with 3 solid to elite bats in Jenkins, Keaschall and Winokur if this draft pans out you can heavily impact the success of the organization. A lot of teams will have successful draft from this class, due to the quality and quantity of the prospects.
  14. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Took a 1st baseman in the 19th round Sam Parker. When researching found Winokur had the highest average exit velocity during the June 2023 combine and Sam Parker had the furthest distance of any player. Highest average exit velocity (batting practice) (# of batted balls in parentheses) 108.3 mph (9) - Brandon Winokur, OF, Edison HS (Calif.) (No. 72) 106.7 mph (8) - George Wolkow, OF, Downers Grove North HS (Ill.) (No. 68) 102.5 mph (9) - Joe Vetrano, 1B, Boston College 101.3 mph (11) - TayShaun Walton, CF, IMG Academy (Fla.) (No. 165) 100.9 mph (14) - Jonathon Long, 3B, Long Beach State 100.5 mph (16) - Kemp Alderman, OF, Mississippi (No. 62) 100.3 mph (13) - Trent Caraway, SS, JSerra Catholic HS (Calif.) (No. 67) 100.3 mph (12) - Myles Naylor, 3B, St. Joan of Arc Catholic SS (Canada) (No. 59) 100.3 mph (5) - Caden Sorrell, CF, Marcus HS (Texas) (No. 76) 99.7 mph (11) - Gavin Grahovac, SS, Villa Park HS (Calif.) (No. 146) Longest maximum distance (batting practice) 456 feet - Sam Parker, 1B/OF, Kennesaw Mountain HS (Ga.) 443 feet - Kemp Alderman, OF, Mississippi (No. 62) 437 feet - Brandon Winokur, OF, Edison HS (Calif.) (No. 72) 437 feet - Will Simpson, INF, Washington 435 feet - Andrew Wiggins, OF/RHP, Heritage Christian (Ind.) 431 feet - George Wolkow, Downers Grove North (IL.) (No. 68) 429 feet - Daniel Cuvet, INF/RHP, ESB Academy (Fla.) 429 feet - Sabin Ceballos, 3B, Oregon (No. 153) 424 feet - Alfonsin Rosario, CF, P27 Academy (S.C.) 424 feet - Luke Keaschall, SS, Arizona State (No. 90)
  15. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Or the Twins can trade for a few prospects. Not a big deal across the board.
  16. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    yes and last I checked we still have a few rounds left. And I am completely comfortable with them drafting a prospect that late in the draft for the C position as its worked. They are primarily filling positions and find lightning in a bottle. Likely feel the catcher position is one that needs more coaching at these levels. I think they have found more than enough organizational talent for the Catcher position after the 6th round.
  17. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Kade Bragg looks like another decent pick.
  18. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    "but that they need someone to catch at the lower levels....."
  19. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    I said it before and I think it is showing, this is a deep class. It is fairly clear the Twins feel there are a lot pitching prospects that have something they like that they can work with. This is very good. Hopefully the top of the draft pans out, because I am fairly confident a couple or more of these pitching prospects will pan out. Lots of quality picks.
  20. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Im not sure where the angst from catching prospects is coming from 2017 Cosgrove 17, Bailey 37, Rodriguez 38 2018 Chris Williams 8th round Casanova 13th 2019 Schmidt 33 rd, Isola 29th round 2021 Cardenas 8th, Winkel 9th 2022 Cossetti 11th, Baez 12th If the value is there the Twins will grab catchers in rounds 8-12, if not they are completely comfortable waiting til the end of the draft to pick up a catcher or two.
  21. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    I think the Twins feel comfortable with the Catching prospects they have. They also likely have 1 or 2 pegged for the end of the draft. This round a couple C came off the board, but its primarily been pitchers.
  22. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Im hoping in the next round or two Twins take a shot on Keaton Anthony. Heck of a bat.
  23. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Xander Hamilton, 6'3" beefier 225lbs. High strikeouts 12 per a 9. Some tools to work with here. My guess is another couple pitchers to get picked yet today.
  24. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    if we get a catcher or I am expecting in the last couple picks, likely a no name that they see something in. Too many decent prospects still available. The catching position just seemed to fall of a cliff this year on quality prospects.
  25. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Garrett Mcmillan just got drafted again.
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