Hawkeye Bean Counter

Well we got 1 last year in Omari Daniel that we got for a shade under 300k. Would be similar in talent. The organizations would have to have the money to throw at these players that would entice them. Again I think 300-500k for 19th pick, I think our 20th pick would want even more than that. As to whether they have hit, I am sure a few have, just don't have them.

Julien said he was going to back to school until they made the last minute deal. What you are really looking at is top 200 prospects or value that you can steal or pay 3rd to 4th round money to have them sign. https://www.cbs42.com/sports/auburn/julien-owen-to-return-to-auburn-baseball-for-2020-season/

The management is trying to give a good enough of a product at the MLB level while they will begin to ramp up on elite talents that have the chance to transform the organization. The bats have slightly underperformed this year but not bad. If they heat up just a little bit, you have a legit team to compete in the playoffs. A chip and chair and see what happens and if a couple players get hot. We finally have a staff that has the arms to compete. Plus finally learning to play some small ball - which we refused to early in the year. The small ball has given us 2-3 extra wins in this stretch rather than waiting for the long ball that hasn't show up in some of those games. The MLB core is in a much better place than a couple years ago. The minor leagues will likely looked fairly stacked and balanced from top to bottom after next years drafts with lots of players who have the ability to be elite.

Whether is HS or otherwise, Julien is a great example of a late round grab that we threw some money at that worked. 500k for 18th round pick in 2019. It is worth a shot and increases the probabilities of more players making it to the MLB.

its likely in the 300-500k range

I think we have enough of those in the system right now. Give me a pick in the 29-34 range. It comes before the competitive balance. Unless he falls off a cliff he will get a 3 year deal for over 50 mil. That is calculation of nearly a 5 war over the contract. He will be near a 4 WAR this year. Now if he is serious about retiring this is all moot. Now I don't think next years draft will be as strong as this one, but in that range this year you have Soto and White. Even still you can find a very nice prospect that is worth more that a 4-5 mlb pitcher. The below is from a cardinals website. Sonny Gray - Sonny Gray has been very consistent in his career. He sports a 3.52 ERA, a 119 ERA+, a 3.61 FIP, and a 1.216 WHIP. He strikes out just under nine batters per nine innings. He is currently in one of the best seasons of his career while pitching for the Minnesota Twins. Through 99.2 innings, he has a 2.89 ERA, 2.85 FIP, 149 ERA+, and has given up a total of 3 home runs in 18 starts. He will be 34 for all of next year, and it's reasonable to assume he will garner a lot of attention from a variety of teams. Pitchers with a similar track record and age who have recently been free agents include Chris Bassitt, Nathan Eovaldi, and Jose Quintana. All three of these players signed for an AAV of around $20 million with a contract length of three years. There will be fewer high-end starters on the market this upcoming season compared to last season, so expect these mid-range starters to earn more money than last year's mid-range starters. Gray's age is hurting the potential length of his contract in the end. Contract Prediction: Three years, $69 million ($23 million AAV)

Eh, this is like any business. I think Twins have been very good in your contracts. You and a few others seem jaded towards this organization claiming you are already done with the front office. So if it is Boras trying to get more money over slot, or more than agreed to, how is that exactly a Twins issue? Boras needs to try to get the maximum money for his client, the Twins try to keep towards a budget. Langford went overslot and Boras is likely trying to do the same here.

I disagree 100%. Gray is a workhorse, and I doubt someone will overpay in trade capital, however I strongly think Sonny will not retire and and the Twins can get another #1 draft pick for him in the 2024 draft. That is tremendous value. Essentially you are able to pick a player like a Soto or Petty. We are already at about a 6 WAR from Gray for the 2 seasons so far. A 6 WAR and #1 draft pick is a very good return. Petty has had ups and downs, was shut down for 2 months to start the year. He has been doing very good at A+ ball. Even still Petty has to be a #1 or high #2 pitcher in MLB to offset the value the Twins got for Gray. As of now this is a trade with the Twins ahead but may be a trade where both teams win. I think we have 6 arms moving forward with Keuchel coming up to help the workload moving forward or take a full spot if someone were to get injured. I really think the Twins have plenty of arms to do well in the post season. As to RP, I am content standing pat as well, however if a deal presents itself to add value to the team I am all for it.

A managements job is to do what is best for the organization. If more information came out to no longer make the deal worthwhile, it is better to take the PR hit and get a #6 draft pick next year. No it is not great, but it is not a total loss either. It could be the Twins are trying to get a below market deal and then still complete the signing and possible get one of the late round picks. It could be they are more willing to just wait until next year. In either case the Twins seem like one of the most lenient teams with medicals but are also willing to do a fair deal. Ultimately I think a deal gets done if this is the case and it is a medical issue. Just look at the Mets with the Rocker situation. The Mets wanted to decrease the salary on Rocker below the 6 million, Rocker refused. Rocker ended up getting a 5.2 million bonus last year and the Mets got Parada. Overall worked out ok for both the player and the team. However, more likely than not it has nothing to do with the medicals and it is all about Boras trying to get more money for his client which is 100% to do with the agent. The Twins can wait him out and sign at the deadline. If this is the case I am completely fine with the Twins letting this drag out. Boras has done this multiple times before. The Twins are very good and being professional so ultimately I think something gets done and they don't burn a bridge with Boras or players.

This isn't going to be any decent prospect. Whether arm or bat, I am thinking a player like Prato, Helman or Holland (all who would need to be protected in rule V) - You also have Isola at C who would need to be protected who was also drafted in 2019 draft. Maybe a minor arm or two as well but nothing the level of a Wallner ect.

The Twins have already said they want another reliever, however, if everyone comes back healthy we might actually dare I say have a fairly stacked bullpen. Balazovic has been a nice surprise had in Stewart, Thielbar and possibly Alacala and we seem to have plenty of arms. You likely need another above average arm to do well in the post season. We will see who the Twins target and if they can get anything done. Likely not an all in deal like last year.

I anticipate we aren't touching any prospect in our top 5-10. I think the Twins will not be looking at big prospects. Think of something like what we did with Detroit last year for Fulmer. I could also see us trading a player or two from the current roster or demoting to AAA.

Priellip and Soto have your highest ceilings. Priellip sounds like went in for just a slight repair work. Low floor for both 2nd tier - Varland, SWR, Raya 3rd tier - Festa Canterino, Enlow Then you have all the 2022 and 2023 draft prospects other than Soto. Honestly that is a fairly strong pitching pipeline especially for our history. If Priellip can pitch healthy next year and Soto looks good I don't think many will be complaining. You also have Raya who we will see if they continue to lengthen out. If 1 or 2 of the other 2023 prospects looks strong suddenly we have a fairly strong pipeline.

I don't think they will significantly underpay Jenkins. They may save a little bit, but my guess is they are fairly locked in on the contract. I wouldn't want to lose Jenkins to get the 19 or 20 prospect.

With the agent I think everything is fine on the Jenkins front. Likely either negotiating a little more money or possible working on something to sign either 19 or 20 prospect.

Brooks Lee if he keeps this pace up, is looking at a possible promotion to AAA and even higher in the prospect rankings. Has a legit shot at Rookie of the year next if he is called up.

I still had mine up from earlier today. https://twinsdaily.com/minnesota-twins-draft-picks/2023/

Gallo in Center is interesting. If the defense is palatable, he is pretty big upgrade to with the bat over Taylor whose bat has gone extremely cold.

Just saw a ranking that had the top 60 prospects and had Rodriguez a couple spots ahead of Jenkins both in the top 30 along with Lee.

The tracker hasn't been updated to reflect this . . . Just saw the Callis Twitter from this morning. Thanks for the update.

I stand pat at the deadline unless someone gives us an overpay for one of our outfielders which isn't likely. Only things I am looking for are a cheap RP and or cheap RH OF which can generally come cheap (along the lines of what Braves did in 2021 and hope someone gets hot. I don't trade any prospects in the top 20. Only someone I might lose to the rule 5. I think we will have ample openings this year with all the players dropping off. The key will be Sonny Gray - the Twins will place Qualifying offer. Gray has 3 options, except the qualifying offer, likely get a salary of more than $50 million netting the Twins a late 1st round draft pick or retire. Options 1 or 2 are great for the Twins and #2 still has the highest probability even with Grays comments. I do think the grind is wearing on Gray I am hoping for a strong end of the season that will revitalize him a bit. Pitching is still pretty strong for next year. Lopez, Ryan and Ober are your top 3. You have Varland Paddack, Winder as your 4-6. Then gets a little more questionable. Could see the Twins get a 1 year rental (ugh). Maeda will be interesting. If his mph continue to go up and stay up, he begins to regain his 2020 form and someone will take a chance on that. If he pitches strong the rest of the year he likely has the second best chance of being offered a qualifying offer. Could easily see him getting 40-60 mil on a 3 year contract. Gallo could get a 2 year 25 million contract possibly 30 million but would need to get hot to end the season. Currently only Sonny Gray would get the offer, with Maeda a decent possibility. He is beginning to pitch strong.

Lee's power is coming, already seeing a bit of it now. Wouldn't be surprised if he ends up near 20 home runs this year and still leading AA in doubles. Just need a few more doubles to get over the fence. Lee will likely be the hitter of the month in the minor leagues for the Twins for July. Over 1100 OPS. I think the statements he is floundering as a pick have washed away pretty quickly as was being stated before the All Star break.

I understand underrating the just drafted players but there is some major issues here. Jenkins below Rodriguez? Jenkins is likely a top 100 prospect and then you have Winokur no where to be found? Pitching is where I think your rankings are way off. Soto is above Festa and its not even a question. Hall is a much more refined and quality pitcher than Morris, again no where to be found. By the end of this season or middle of next season I have a feeling much of your 12 to 20 pitching prospects will be dominated by the 2023 draft class. I can understand not rating them until they show up, but I would have Quested and Dunn on the list now. Pasqualotto Langenberg Lee and Dougherty are all likely better than your 13-16 prospects now but I am willing to let this play out first.

The long term plan I think will be the following - Lee at 3rd, Correa SS, Lewis 2nd, Kiriloff 1st - Julien DH and backup at 2nd and 1st, With Lewis proclivity for injuries is very nice insurance. Should be an excellent defensive infield and plenty of pop. Outfield is where we currently appear to be lacking. Steer is having a decent year but not all star or ect currently with an 817 OPS, I still think Lee becomes the better 3rd baseman. You still have Miranda as cheap insurance to see if he can figure it back out again. Lee is outperforming Steer at all levels and a year younger as well. He also has a chance to enter the MLB in in age 23 season. Arraez is also beginning is typical late summer fall swoon. Although the swoon started a bit later and starting from a higher point. I really like the future infield the outfield is a major question mark. Can 1 one of Wallner, Larnach make it. Otherwise you are hoping Martin can re discover his contact. He is walking again, 3 walks last night. I am not sure Buxton will end up in the long term plans unless can play outfield again. I am actually comfortable with our C position. We are solid for a couple years and we have Williams knocking on the door as a back up C/DH player.

Not yet, but already agreed to, so just ironing out details likely.