Hawkeye Bean Counter

He will be number 2. Initial reports are he will slot in at around 25 on the top 100 lists.

Pete Fairbanks likely isn't going to cold weather team due to Raynaud's. Its why he signed with the Marlins in the 1st place. As to bullpen help - I would guess we would focus on lower leverage help - 7th inning or setup man that come come fairly cheaply.

If you have been watching the box scores, as a whole in the minor leagues the Twins have been giving up lots of runs. Due to a lot of injuries throughout the system, the injuries and promotions have really thinned out the pitching. Now some of the pitching is coming back specifically at the lower levels plus there is opportunity for improvement. I would like to see both Soto and Hill pitch better at high A. Wichita will be getting Winokur. Quick is also moving up. I will be curious to see if this is a help or a hindrance. Debarge has been a disappointment. Generally the Twins have only had position players report to the minor leagues. I could see several of the pitchers especially those deemed to be relievers being immediately inserted into rosters. Just increase the depth throughout the minor leagues.

Overall this has the potential to be the strongest the bullpen has been all year. After the all-star break - Closer - Gomez Fireman- Morris Good Reliever - Sands, Nance Lefty - Funderburk, fingers crossed on Coloumbe That is something you can build around.

Then thats a 1st round comp pick if he turns down the QO. Thats effectively what I am looking at. Yes the last 2 months will make a major determination on his value. I understand that. Currently I am stating 50% chance which is what the current estimates are of a $60 million contract.

So you agree you aren't that far off of a 60 million contract. Thats affectively where I am at - with a blow out end of the year could end at that 80-100 million range.

12th whose above him?

How old was Realmuto when he got the 3 year deal???? 35 year old you say. Don't you think that is quite a bit different than coming into his 30 year contract. So you will agree that if Jeffers gets 1.0 WAR this year which isn't out of the realm of possibility he would come in at the Same WAR as JT - and 5 years younger. JT's biggest issue is his age and father time. This is the biggest reason why I think Jeffers wants a big contract. If he were to get to 3+ WAR he will want to cash in on a contract year. I don't seem him taking the contract like Martin Perez and not performing the next year. Here is Google - Ryan Jeffers is currently playing on a one-year, $6.7 million contract for the 2026 season. Because he is set to become an unrestricted free agent at the end of the year, projections for his next contract estimate he could command an annual value in the range of $11 million to $15 million per year. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5] Industry analysts and projections suggest a multi-year deal for Jeffers, one of the top hitting catchers in baseball, could land around $57 million over 4 years (averaging $14 million annually). Because he is a highly sought-after commodity entering his prime, teams competing for his services on the open market—or via trade—would be expected to pay a premium for his offensive production. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5] If he ends the season strong I think the $15 million projections are low and $60 million is the baseline. I don't see how you can disagree with that.

The numbers you are utilizing are skewed. If Jeffers can continue what he did in the first half, his season will be drastically better than anything Caratini has done. Lets look at OPS plus for the last 4 years which seems to be what you what to be going after Jeffers Caratini 2023 134 94 2024 103 111 2025 110 102 2026 160 97 Career 109 91 Yes Jeffers is being carried by this years stats. Maybe he incredibly cools down. But other than 2024 Jeffers has outperformed Caratini - in a starter role - rather than being a backup Catcher. Yes some of this is based on Jeffers drastically outperforming the end of the year, but I think a 130 to 140 OPS+ which he would have done in 2 of the last 4 years would allow him to get a 17-20 million contract over 3 years. He will be viewed much more positively than Caratini ever was. These 2 are not on the same stratosphere.

Victor Caratini??? Based on what? You can go after my $100 million fine, but Caratini as a comp is absurd. Even still if you were to give 2.5 times which Jeffers has proved at a 3-4 year contract - that 17.5 million at 3 years for 53 million. Due to injuries I still think Jeffers tests the market - and the marginal improvement is worth more which means a 60 million plus contract. Jeffers is a step below Smith, Raleigh and Realmuto, but there is a large gap down to the other catchers who are at best mediocre. The biggest issue with catchers is the variability just look at Raleigh at the quick degradation on performance. Maybe I am wrong, but I really think Jeffers gets a significant contract. Year (WAR) Jeffers Caratini 2023 3.2 .7 2024 2.1 1.3 2025 1.3 .9 2026 2.0 .3 Total (4 years) 8.6 3.2

Anderson was already optioned to St. Paul. It will be interesting to see if they treat him as a reliever or the next SP depth piece.

Realmuto signed his 115 million contract in 2019. Raleigh signed an extension which took away his 3 option years. Will Smith has a 10 year 140 million contract. Currently Dingler has the highest WAR for catcher with 3.9, followed by Langeliers at 2.2 and then its Jeffers with 2.0. Fine if you don't agree he will be a $100 million contract, which I think is a possibility I will stand by that he will get more than $60 million right now and would place a bet now. With multiple years of 2+ year this isn't just a 1 off. To find solid defense with good offensive potential those just don't grow on trees. Now will the Twins be willing to take the risk of offering the QO. I say no, but if they think they will have to spend, along with several other teams, there will be minimal risk to doing so, and they could then trade off Jackson.

Cal Raleigh signed a 6 year $105 million contract - which also bought out arbitration years. Had he hit free agency Raleight would have gotten more than $100 million so this isn't a apples to apples comparison. Jeffers will come into free agency hitting 2+ War in 3 of the last for years and likely with 2 - 3 plus WAR. Do to the lack of decent catchers that hit free agency he will have significant demand. We won't keep Jeffers its why we are carrying 3 catchers. I go deeper into this on my previous post. As to the Twins, they are effectively stating they aren't selling. They have said no on Ryan and Jeffers, unless they tank the next 2 weeks, and Larnach and Bell appear to be safe as well. They think they can get to the playoffs, and honestly, their arrow is way up. The offense is beginning to hit on all cylinders, the defense is improving with Kreidler manning short, Lee doing better at 3rd and Clemens doing admirably at 2nd. Lewis is holding his own at 1st. You deal with the roster crunch for 6 more weeks. They will be fine.

Mid season Review What has worked - The offense is starting to click. The Twins have multiple players beginning to get hot. Larnach, Lee, Clemens, Lewis, Caratini, Bell. Jeffers coming back. Buxton has been a beast with the bat again. The offense is legit. Injuries galore - Starting pitching got hit hard. Losing Lopez, Abel and Festa hurt. Having 8 plus starting arms coming into the year was a godsend, but the depth is maxed out, with minimal option left. Found a star - Bradley is becoming the starter we expected to have in Lopez. The Twins have as good of a 1-2 punch in Ryan and Bradley as anyone in the league. Bullpen - Bend but don't break. Yes the ERA is the worst in the league, but its more been blow outs of games we were already losing. They have not had the blown saves or holds like they had at the end of the year. Again injuries have hurt - Banda, Sands. Wow has Gomez and Morris really stepped up. They appear to be the 2 high leverage relievers to rely on the rest of the way. We need to find 2-3 more. Nance is a good start and Sands is coming back. I really really hope we can bring back Coloumbe. We have more needs than most and a knowledge of what he can do. Minor deals have worked really well - Larnach back at 4 million looks great in hind sight. Bell at 5.5 millions looks good down the stretch when he typically gets hot. Caratini was godsend when Jeffers got hurt. Jackson looks like a legit backup catcher which is why we are keeping 3 catchers. At this point, I would deal with the roster limitation for 6 more weeks until we get to Sept 1st and the roster increases. Caratini and Jackson are a great duo for next year. Banda really settled in prior to the injury. Rogers for 2 million has done a ton of leverage work. That a lot to expect out of a declining arm. Gomez is an absolute find as stated before. Kreidler is manning the SS position admirably. Clemens has improved over last year. If the only player to not really pan out was Orze, this was an extremely successful rebuild of the bullpen all things considered with minimal resources put into it. If the Twins can begin to really solidify the bullpen into the strength which has some possibilities, the Twins could become a decent threat in the playoffs. 2 good starters can carry you and the offense looks decent. They are still likely too aggressive to succeed in the playoff but its a start. If Nance, Sands, and potential Coloumbe can lock down the middle relief then, you are looking at adding 1-2 bullpen arms at the deadline. Considering where they started at thats a major win.

Jeffers would be the best catcher hitting the market with plus defense and plus offense. If he finishes the year strong and he hits the market he is getting a 5 year $100 million contract. He will not be taking a 1 year 22 million contract. He will take the payday and be happy. Edit - since some disagree, does everyone agree that the Yankees have a massive need at C. Depending on how things go, he will most likely sign a big contract and well over $50 million. You offer the QO and see what happens.

Well Twins version 3 of the bullpen we will see soon. Good to Exellent relievers 1. Gomez 2. Morris Average 3. Nance 4. Sands 5. Funderburk Unknown - 6. Go 7. Rojas - I think he will be a starter until Priellip is back. As a reliever Could be elite Below Average 8. Rogers 9. Paredes 10. Adams. We picked up Anderson - it will be interesting if he is more of starter or a reliever for us. I also think its a no brainer to pick up Coloumbe and pay some cash considerations to Boston. He slots in ahead of Funderburk in my opinion. Injuries and underperformance for a lot of the relievers has hurt- but most of these players had question marks coming in. Sands also appears to be coming back after the break. Say what you will but I am cautiously optimistic with some of these pick ups the bullpen will be able to hold their own down the stretch.

I think they saved a little money on some of the pitching prospects. On the Show they thought maybe 250k savings on Lackey. There may be a little savings on Tinney but to get to 2 million for Wachsmann there is probably some savings on some of the pitchers from 4-10 - Raab and Lay specifically. With that said the pitchers the Twins targeted are swing for the fence pitchers in the middle rounds with several with extremely low floors - or will be relievers which could be a change. Lapour. Murdock and Burns all profile similarly. Lapour can touch a 100, Murdoch 99, Burns 100+. They all have 1 good secondary pitch and not much else and all with some control questions. I think they will see if they can develop a 3rd pitch to become a starter but this is the 3rd major point that is a change of previous drafts. The Twins look to be drafting relievers. Prior drafts everyone seemed to come in as a starter and they would work them through as piggy backs. Its been one of the reasons the minor teams haven't performed as well. There just haven't been relievers in the system at basically any level. It was transitioning failed starters.

There was I just never saw it.

I have always been one that enjoyed the drafts. Would watch during work. Even with the third pick I didn’t have near the optimism I usually do. I truly think Lackey will be a great player for the Twins yet there isn’t that banner saying wow this is great. I can see some decent players the rest of the draft and honestly I think I like Tinney more than most here. Beyond that you have your arms and 1 prep arm per usual. There wasn’t the talent at 43 of a Quick so the Tinney pick makes more sense. We grabbed pitchers the rest of the way. Renfrow seems like a starter kit for a good starting pitcher just needs some refinement. Waschman is your prep arm, and the other arm I’m intrigued by is Burns- effectively a 100 mph wild thing. Beyond that it seemed like a lot of players with 1 elite pitch. I can be optimistic and think we will find some good players but overall I’m extremely meh and have no idea why. Whether it’s the new format, less promotion of the draft or less enthusiasm of others on the board. I’m sure I’ll track the players just like I always do was just curious if others felt the same way.

They stated Tinney was at the top of their board, maybe they got a discount, but I’m not expecting it. I think they saved some money on day 2.

Wow I guess Marek Houston , Culpepper and Jenkins are chopped liver. I really think you may need to take a day away from the boards. Personally I could see the Tinney pick turning out as good as the Jeffers pick. In either case it’s good insurance in hopes of finding an elite catcher. If that’s what we do this draft a long with finding an arm or two it will be a successful draft.

The bullpen has almost completely turned over. Gomez is a true find. Beyond that they just keep rotating in relievers. Banda had started to settle in before his injury. Sands is still injured. Andrew Morris seems to have made a spot for himself. We really need to find 2-3 solid relievers through waivers or trades to have an effective bullpen for the playoffs. I feel like we are a starter short and currently don’t quite have the lineup to make a run but the team seems to be gelling which it struggled to do last year.

Anyone can know what needs to be taught, the issue is can the player understand it, put in the effort to get better and then translate it into performance. Both Lackey and Tinney have been labeled as having incredibly work ethics and drive. I even like the catcher they got late in the draft. Now we were discussing what changes would happen in the draft without Falvey and the Twins took a lot more hitters 10-20 rounds. It had always been stated you have a better chance with pitchers later in the draft. The other was a focus on catching prospects a position we had largely punted with high picks other than Jeffers and Diaw.

Has there been a review on the fifth round pick?

I think he was saying the first time they have pick catcher in their first two rounds. In either case they stuck to the board and picked Tinney in the second rather than pick another position. The Twins have picked multiple catchers usually deeper in the drafts.