Beast

Bailed out, big time. The track record on trades isn’t the greatest. That was probably in their back pocket of Correa didn’t fall into their lap. Who knows how that turns out (Lee, Rodriguez, and/or Raya gone for someone on the cusp of a major injury). The impact is greater than the 5-6 wins Correa provided statistically last year. He’s a champion and high-end competitor. Completely changes the club house. Young players learn more. He eats up a lot of the pressure that may fall on others. It frees up so many other things also. It gives guys like Buxton and Arraez some protection in the lineup. That may allow them to perform better. It allows you to do things with the defensive alignment you may not have otherwise been able to. Maybe you get Royce Lewis in left field to give you 3-4-5 WAR instead of Nick Gordon/Alex K./Larnach giving you 1-2. You can move Farmer around to allow for more rest days. Your lineup is much better against LHPs. There is more fan excitement, more energy in the stadium. More press coverage and exposure. He adds credibility to the roster that may result in players wanting to sign or be traded here at some point. The ripple effect throughout the whole franchise is huge. The impact might be closer to 10-15 wins than the 5-6 baseball reference will tell you. Who knows. A number of things can’t even be quantified properly. I do know that FO and ownership got bailed out big time. Fan morale was at a depth of low not seen in quite a while. A taste of bile in fans mouths that wasnt going to wash away for some time. That’s gone, mostly. It can’t be disputed these guys are supremely lucky. Where would they be right now if Nelson Cruz and Carlos Correa (twice) hadn’t fallen into their lap because nobody else wanted them. Very possibly not employed for this team any more. But, hey, I’d rather be lucky than good. I won’t give them credit for a “strategy.” I won’t give them credit for their “patience” (that’s another one I’m hearing). Doing nothing doesn’t mean patience. They were likely just hoisting the white flag to rebuild. I will give them credit for pouncing on the opportunity that fell from the sky and landed on their face.

I think people overvalue Arraez and what other teams would be willing to give up for him. But, I could be wrong. I just don’t see a rebuilding team wanting a non-prospect (graduated) who’s already arb eligible, with his deficiencies and questionable longevity for high-end pitching. I don’t see any contenders out there with a glut of pitching and holes at 1B/DH that would pay up for him. We all love him. I just don’t think he’s that valuable in the trade market. If I’m the Marlins, there’s no way I even consider a trade for stud starting pitcher with Arraez as the centerpiece - unless the second and third guys with him are monster prospects. Not sure we have many guys right now that I’d be willing to part with that actually hold value. So many are coming off injuries or bad years. Lewis would be on the top of my list right now if his value wasn’t suppressed by back to back ACLs. It would have to be incredible for me to move Lee or Rodriguez. Prielipp would likely be drastically undervalued at this point. Excluding a couple of pitching prospects near the majors that I’d rather keep (Varland and SWR) we’re probably down to Miranda, Wallner, and Julien. Not sure what you could get for some combo of those 3, with some combo of Kepler, Arraez - maybe throw in Raya or Festa. Not sure we combine enough of those guys to pry Alcantara away from the Marlins. If we’re not going after a guy of that caliber, what’s the point? We have enough 3,4,5 caliber starters (including guys like SWR, Varland, Winder). We need someone to anchor the top of the rotation.

I think this speaks to what they think about Lewis or Lee playing SS in 2023 or 2024. Wouldn’t be the Twins style to sign Correa if they were confident in one of them stepping in and holding it down in the near future. Im totally fine with it. There’s always been questions about Lewis at short. Sounds like there are some questions bout Lee also. Best case Ontario (for you TPB fans), They have a tough decision on who moves to third and/or OF. Lewis in left (with Buxton in CF) and Lee at 3rd is a possibility. Maybe Miranda can play 1st or 2nd or gets moved at some point. Worst case, Correa’s leg or back causes him to get moved off of SS in a couple years and he becomes one of the better defenders at 3B in the league. He’s certainly got the arm for it. The Twins are in a great spot right now with SS for the foreseeable future. Not sure I’ve ever been able to say that in my lifetime.

The roster on paper looks great, but a lot of things needs to break right in order to be successful: -Buxton needs to stay healthy -Arraez needs to stay healthy -Alex K needs to stay healthy and return to his once promising form. -Tyler Mahle needs to stay healthy. -Ober needs to stay healthy (if not, Varland/Paddack need to be good). -Kenta Maeda needs to return to pre-injury form. -Jorge Polanco needs to stay healthy -Duran needs to remain a dominant bullpen arm -Pagan needs to stay out of high leverage roles -Lopez needs to figure things out and return to pre-trade form. -Jax needs to take another step -Kepler, if on the team, needs to see this theory of the shift ban helping him come to fruition. -Joey Gallo needs to be better than last year and provide some power numbers If all of those things happen, we win some playoff games and may even be a World Series contender. All of those things won’t happen. If none of them happen, we stink. If some of them happen, somewhere in the middle. Thats my main gripe with this FO. Things are currently constructed in a way that requires all of these hypotheticals and what-ifs to take place. A lot of them aren’t real likely to happen (Buxton being healthy, Alex K. returning to form, Maeda returning to firm, shift change reinventing Kepler, Gallo performing, Duran maintaining a ridiculous level of performance, Lopez returning to form). Take a bunch of things that aren’t likely to happen individually and combine them…..we’re not looking at great odds. I’m excited for what could happen. I think we’re fairly likely to start the year hot and fizzle out a bit as everyone breaks down again. Don’t think it’ll be as pronounced and disgusting. But, we’re much more likely to see a repeat of last year than make the ALCS, the way things sit today. That’s my threshold for a successful year. Not interested in regular season wins or division titles in in an awful division at this point.

I agree with your sentiment. But, just in the last few years we’ve seen them DFA Nick Anderson and turn into stud. Designate Akil Baddoo and nearly win rookie of the year. Non-tender Eddie Rosario and watch him carry the Braves to the World Series. There’s probably some others I’m missing. Its a perception thing. People don’t remember to 1,000 inconsequential, or even borderline beneficial moves. These moves have to happen, but people don’t trust them to make the right one. Whether they were the right move at the time (which they were) doesn’t change the outcome that forms the perception. Frankly, they’ve earned it a bit after watching the bullpen implode last year and throw away games like parade candy early in the year. The games while they’re tinkering with waiver claims in May count just the same in the standings as September. Win a playoff series. Hell, even a playoff game, and you wouldn’t hear nearly as much of it.

Worth a shot. I guess if we’re taking bullpen fliers I’d rather go with someone like Alex Reyes, who if healthy can be electric. There’s 100 guys out there in their mid-30s that may catch lightning in a bottle one more time (Smith, Hand, etc.). Or, just cough up a few million and get one of the 10 decent guys left out there. Chafin, Fullmer, Green, Duffy, etc. If they do this in conjunction with something above - awesome. If this is all they do - why?

Phenomenal deal. Holy crap. I feel 100x better about this off-season now. Amazing turn of events. 6 years, $200M is a steal. And, no, a player again falling into their lap that nobody else wanted to sign doesn’t make the FO geniuses. I’m not ready to concede that. Still need more successful moves to be convinced they’re a quality FO. Full credit for making this happen, but they have some work to do to get back in the right side of the ledger. Committing $200M in this day and age, after getting outbid twice, doesn’t mean the Pohlads aren’t stingy with payroll. Still well below what it could/should be. Bump the payroll above last year’s, adjusted for inflation, and I’ll give them all due credit. Win a competitive negotiation be. A default because every backed out…. I’ll give them all due credit. Still more work to do to get back on the right side of the ledger. This is a step in the right direction, for sure. This is a significant move in that direction. Criticize all you want, I still need more to say all is right in the world. We’re about where we left off last year…when we sucked. I can hold both opinions simultaneously. I’m now excited as hell about the season. I have some hope. I also think they need to do a little more to really solidify this team as a contender. At the end of the day, whether luck or skill, awesome outcome.

Another note I forgot to mention: It was hilarious when he threw the ball over the center field fence. That really hurt people feelings? Good grief. That goes both ways too. Everyone seems to want people to pimp home runs, bat flip, show up other players with ridiculous celebrations for everything….there’s a polar opposite to that you have to accept then too. Get used to people throwing and slamming bats when strike out. Bash water coolers. Throw balls over fences.

I hope so. That would be an undertaker sitting up in the coffin moment for me, in regard to fan morale. I don’t have sources. But, my gut tells me the maximum we’ll get out of this is another media cycle praising them for finishing second in the bidding…again. “Holy moly, they just offered the two biggest free agent contracts in team history in the same offseason….times are changing…again. Revolutionary. Knocking down paradigms like clay pigeons. nWo style hip-thrusts at anyone that says Pohlads are cheap.” I can’t wait for the next scripted BSN Town Hall special where screened fans ask them pre-written questions about this.

Now they’ll ride or die with him in the 8th inning through 15 blown saves in the first month because they love some obscure metric that their broken AI spit out at them. ”Yeah, he’s given 35 up HRs in 10 innings against the Royals and Tigers, but he’s one of the best in the league with the distance between his index and ring finger at the release point of his knuckle curve. Just you wait until mid-August when he’s been relegated to only pitching the 6th inning of games that are already statistically over. Then, a handful of disgruntled fans will ridicule them here. Then a mob of “ball guys” will tell them they don’t get it. The team would suck so much worse somehow if they would’ve spent $5M more dollars. Falcey and Lavine are next level genius and just strategizing for 2038 when our 1/2 season window opens. The Pohlads actually love spending money because they signed Josh Donaldson for the current cost of a high-end equipment manager….etc., etc. I feel like Bill Murray in Groundhog’s day.

My take on the difference: If Correa was their only good player that can stay healthy (like the Twins) and Peña was coming into the season not yet fully rehabbed from his second major knee reconstruction in 2 years, they may have wanted to keep him. There is no question about Peña at short. He’s a stud defensively. Lewis isn’t and may not stick there long-term. We’re crossing our fingers that he’ll be league average. I don’t think fans here would be upset about losing Correa if we had a lineup consisting of Altuve, Bregman, Brantley, Alvarez, Tucker, etc., and a defensive stud waiting in the wings, to go along with the best pitching staff in baseball. If we were paying Verlander to $30M a year to win Cy Young awards vs. embarrassingly throwing junkballers in playoff games in Yankee Stadium because we’re scared of free agent contracts, our perception of the FO’s moves would be a little different. Most important note: The Astros weren’t scared of spending the money. They needed to lock up the best young hitter in the game (Alvarez). They didn’t let Correa walk to trim payroll to $100 million. We didn’t allocate those funds elsewhere. We haven’t developed squat that needs to be paid, let alone the premier left handed bat in the game. The money’s been put into the Scrooge McDuck vault, while every other quality FA fell off the board. That may change, but that’s how it looks to fans at the moment. Their FO has a track record of making good decisions (something ours doesn’t) and winning. They’ve been in the last 6 ALC, and 4 of the last 6 World Series, winning 2. They’ve had more success in 6 years that we’ve had in our entire history as a franchise. Ours looks like rudderless group of incompetents that makes the wrong move at nearly every turn. For some context on Correa: He has a career .272/.344/.849 playoff line. He’s got a number of monster, clutch hits. 18 HRs and 60 RBI in 300 playoff ABs. He is an absolute monster in big games. I couldn’t disagree more that he’s just a coattail rider that meant nothing to the Astros success. More context: Byron Buxton has 1 single in the playoffs in his entire career. Jorge Polanco 5 hits with a .364 slugging. Kepler is hitless with a .375 OPS in 25 PAs. Outside of Arraez who was phenomenal in 2019 (but hitless in 2020), Correa was the only guy on the roster that doesn’t curl into the fetal position in the post season. I agree completely with the premise. Sign some GD pitchers. The problem is they didn’t, and seemingly refuse to do that.

If Boras wants to play some hardball, I’d go right back at them in the media and say, “yes, we’ve had talks, but we’re still evaluating the potential enormous risks here. Massive, unprecedented risks associated with such a long-term commitment. So unbelievably risky that’s it’s hard to even put into words.”

Help us get the #1 overall pick in 2024? To be serious, I’m not confident we’ll see any of them. I would like to see them be that aggressive with Lee.

Because Gordon’s not that good. Hes not undervalued by Twins fans, he’s become ridiculously overvalued by many. He’s a fine bench guy. Not a guy you want batting in the heart of the lineup and playing everyday LF (like last year…..when we were an awful team). He’s not especially great defensively. He doesn’t hit for all that much power. He doesn’t get on base all that much. Minor league track record is very uninspiring. An empty .270 BA and 50 RBI being your marquee season isn’t anything to write home about. He’s a JAG (just a guy). Nothing there to indicate any sort of star potential. He had a fine year….for a bench guy. We probably just saw his ceiling. Buxton, Gallo, and Kepler have track records of success in the MLB (although spotty). Gordon hasn’t been particularly good at any point of his professional career at any level. If I have my pick between the 4 players, Nick Gordon is the last selected. I do agree with your frustration with this team’s roster construction. But, Nick Gordon isn’t the answer to anything. Great kid, brings energy, all that, but just not that good.

This move makes sense if you were aggressive in the free agent/trade markets and were actively trying to win. Commit to the rebuild, or commit to winning. This middling crap is just an attempt to con fans into thinking you did something so attendance doesn’t tank and manipulate service time of guys like SWR/Varland. Just grow a spine and commit to something, for God’s sake. This is why we always suck. It is possible they still make a big splash in the trade market, so we’ll see. But, if we get to Spring Training and they’ve done nothing but Gallo, Wacha, and some other crap….they deserve every bit of criticism they get.

The guy has accumulated over 20 WAR in 585 games. That’s .035 per game. Joe Mauer was at .030 for his career. Aaron Judge and Mike Trout are around .05 per game. Bryce Harper is around .031. Saying he a bust and he can’t put together a good full season is absurd. He’s responsible for more wins in half a season than almost everybody else is in a full one. Alex Bergman had 4.5 WAR in 2022. Rafael Devers 4.4. Luis Arraez 4.4. George Springer 4.0. Clad Guerrero 4.0. Byron Buxton 4.0. He had .5 higher WAR than Matt Chapman in 2022. 1.2 higher than Acuna, Yelich, Wander Franco. 1.5 more than Bryce Harper. Thats significant value added. It’s just a fact that if he plays a full season (the way he’s played historically), that he would be near the top of the MLB in WAR. You’re flawed perception doesn’t change that.

I’m optimistic, but very cautiously. Im a huge fan of his. The deal they signed is still a great deal, even with the injuries - those complaining about that will hopefully stop after seeing this years free agent market. He’ll miss some time. I no longer hold out hope in that regard. I just hope it’s not excessive and not in September/October. We’ll see.

Kirilloff being this low on the list is a bit of a disaster for this franchise. Talk about not being able to have nice things. Kubel, Mauer, Morneau were all derailed by injuries….now Buxton, and we’re going down that road with Lewis, and Kirilloff.

Austin might not even be the 13th best prospect. I have a hard time with Jeffers being this high on the list also, but I get it. Prielipp and SWR are very intriguing in so many ways. Should be a lot of fun to watch.

Buxton is the only one with a remote chance at one of these awards. I no longer have faith he can play enough to win one, but the outside chance is there. One could see him staying healthy and playing platinum glove level CF with 90 XBHs, ending up at some ridiculous WAR around 10. Remote, but at least seems possible. Areaz has no shot. Yordan Alvarez hit .306 with a million HRs and RBIs and finished 3rd. Arraez would need to add a significant amount of power to his line to even enter the bottom end of the conversation. We saw his ceiling, IMO. He’s already dealing with a broken down body. I don’t see him being healthy all year. Very good player, but overvalued by Twins fans and has way too many things working against him (power, defense, health). Maeda might not be in the top 3 on the team for potential Cy Young candidates. But, none of them really have a shot, so it feels like a waste of time even typing it. Im not especially high on Wallner. You never know, I could be wrong. Maybe he’ll throw together a season like we saw recently from Gallo. But, I’d be shocked. The league will adjust to his successful debut, and I expect some struggles in 2023. With the “depth” we have in the corner OF spots, he might not even stay in the rotation. If things were wide open for him to work through some struggles, I may feel differently about his chances at an award.

Wouldn’t trade a pitcher who has never been healthy enough in his career to surpass 100 innings for a 5+ WAR shortstop (and second/third baseman) under significant team control? Because we have Kyle Farmer and a guy who may not even be a shortstop because he had 12 good games in the majors? Some of these takes just blow my mind. If the Padres would do that deal (Ober straight up), it’s a no brainer. Alas, there’s no way in hell they would give up such a great asset for an injured pitcher. No FO would be incompetent enough to trade high-end assets for a pitcher with health issues, right?

You know the franchise’s PR machine has done their job phenomenally when their fan base thinks all of these deals are too risky. Not only that - some openly applauding them for doing nothing (wow, what a bullet dodge). Leaves me with so many questions. What the heck are we even doing here then? People just want to perpetually be in rebuilding mode, and only the sign the bottom-barrel, 0 risk deals? Why? If you won’t sign premium players for top dollar, and won’t sign second tier player because their too risky….do you just never sign anybody? What are we saving the money for, exactly? Do you think they’re adding it to the budget in the future? Finally, what the heck do you expect to get for less in the free agent market?

I have a really hard time seeing Lewis as the long-term answer at shortstop.

I hope none of you proclaiming Bauer the worst human ever have any Puckett memorabilia. I may not know the full back story. Not expressing an opinion on Bauer or whether he should be given another chance. But, come on. There’s a statue outside of our stadium gates of a guy who viciously beat and strangled his wife with a phone cord. He cornered and sexually assaulted a waitress in a restaurant bathroom and got the star treatment out of being convicted by a jury (and if you have the stones to do that, likely not a one time thing). Fairly common knowledge that he’s a womanizer and beater, sexual deviant, and impulsive substance addict/abuser. Some worked up about Bauer likely have a picture with Puckett’s statue in the archive of the social media du jour. Stones, glass houses, etc. Not seeing the merit in trying to virtue signal and claim a moral high ground while worshipping Puckett like a god. You get zero social credit points.

Why would they need pitching? Falvey is the pitcher whisperer. They have so many finely tuned and developed pitchers banging on Target Field’s doors that it looks like a walking dead episode. In all seriousness, I don’t get it. The only guy that has proven he can be good and stay healthy is Ryan. Everyone else had injury issues (Ober, Mahle, Maeda, Paddack, Winder, even Sonny to a certain extent). Varland and Woods Richardson are unknown commodities (sorry, Varlands 4.4 FIP in 5 starts isn’t giving me early Francisco Luciano flashbacks). The bullpen looks set up for another dumpster fire. Duran is the only reliable guys in there. Maybe Jax. Theilbar is about ready to collect social security. Lopez, Pagan, and Megill absolutely stink. Alcala and Moran are promising but shouldn’t be counted on as back-end bullpen anchors. The more I stew on it this off-season the more I realize how poorly run this whole operation is (but muh spreadsheets and analytics!), and the more I feel like I don’t really care if I ever see a Twins game again.