Beast

I’m not too concerned about prospect rankings at this point. We could end up having 3 top 25 prospects shortly with Jenkins, Rodriguez, and Lee. I’d feel pretty good about that vs. the division, even though we’re light on high-end pitching prospects. As far as young guys breaking through into the majors, Witt would scare me the most. That guy is a monster. He’s already a top 15-20 player in the MLB. But, I have no faith that the Royals will build anything around him. He could probably get a $300 million+ contract once eligible. He’ll end up getting dealt to a big market club. So, not too concerned there. Cleveland is always going to be there. At least as long as their current brain trust and management are around. I don’t need to look at their up and coming players, prospect rankings, etc. But, I’m it overly concerned about them dominating the division for long periods of time. They’ll be a factory, but you don’t have to be the ‘98 Yankees to beat them. The Tigers have done a good job of rebuilding. They have a solid system right now to add to some good young guys like Greene, Torkelson, Skubal, Meadows. When they get Cabrera’s $30+M/yr. off the books, they could give the Twins a lot of trouble. The White Sox could be very scary if they can stop shooting them selves in the foot. They have an absolute stud in Robert on a 6 year, $50M deal, with team options through 2027. That was robbery. He’s won a gold glove. He’s a monster at the plate. He’s what we hoped Buxton may turn into…..on a better contract. Despite his struggles, Dylan Cease is still one of the best starters in the AL for my money (FIP of 3.77 this year with 163 Ks in 138 IP). They’re not afraid to be aggressive when it comes to player acquisition. They probably shouldn’t, but I think they scare me the most.

I’m concerned. Regardless of the reason why he’s struggled. When he’s at his best he’s absolutely dominant. The bullpen is built around him. There’s nobody else. If he’s throwing arrow straight and getting knocked around to the tune of a 4.50+ ERA, he’s a liability. There’s big time playoff implications there.

Yep, this is a huge problem. Look at that loaded position player group on the 26 man. Willy Castro, Donovan Solano, Kyle Farmer, Joey Gallo, Michael Taylor, Jordan Luplow, overcooked Jorge Polanco and Christian Vasquez….not to mention the guys set to walk like Kepler….how are we ever going to find ABs for top prospects with such a dynamic group of studs?! We just may have to donate players to a less fortunate team to clear out some of these all-time greats. We currently have 3 position players on the active roster that I could care to keep. Jeffers, Correa, Wallner. Buxton, Lewis, and Alex K. can’t stay on the field and never will. We have 1 position player prospect in the top 100 that’s even remotely close to the majors, and he’s probably got another year. It’s absurd to look at this team, the active roster vs IL, recent performance, history, etc. and think we’re fresh out of space for talent. It can be argued team has the worst roster, and maybe even farm system, from AA up, of any team near .500 or better in the MLB. We have more roster space than we know what to do with.

Don’t put it past this team to miss the playoffs. They’re doing all they can to keep Cleveland in it.

This team can barely keep its head above water with quality starting pitching. If we have to use Dobnak, we’re in trouble.

Larnach just doesn’t seem to do anything overly impressive. He’s had some moments, but is just kind of there. It’s early, but Wallner seems to have more “splash” plays (to steal a football term). Not only at the plate but in the field. They could very well end up having similar careers. That may be the most likely outcome. A few years as journeyman type, slightly above replacement level, corner OFers. It’s too early to say Wallner is a known commodity. Guys get off to hot starts. But, Wallner is out to an early lead.

Yes......very good one (seriously), I forgot they won the first one. I'm a doofus. Part of me wants to take the bet anyway because I can't admit when I'm wrong. My frustration on losing the series stands.

Lol, 60-1 at any amount on one game at this point? I can’t in good faith take advantage of such an emotional reaction. And they probably won’t get swept. But it would be like them.

So like this team to look like they’re building momentum only to turn around and get swept by an awful team in Detroit.

He’s ready.

Strange time to quit being worried about the lefty/righty matchup.

Pitching staff doing a phenomenal job tonight. Put a few runs on the Baird and reward them. It’s unbelievable that they have 8 stolen bases and have only scored 1 run. Can’t imagine that’s a likely outcome with 8 steals.

Letting him walk would’ve been the biggest PR nightmare this team has ever dealt with. He was still a very good player for quite some time after signing the deal. It wasn’t the albatross some make it out to be. They also got a number of years of elite level performance out him at a team friendly rate. In terms of his overall value to the franchise as a whole, you have to consider that as well. It goes beyond the numbers on the field to make the contract “worth it.” The merch, the exposure, and all the other things attached to the player. Mauer alone was arguably bigger than the Twins franchise a whole in terms of national recognition. He just won the MVP. He was on the cover of video games, in TV commercials, in All Star games, winning batting titles, winning silver sluggers, winning good gloves. It’s easy as Twins fans, I think, to forget the heights he reached and the trajectory he was on at that time. His name was in the national conversation like it hadn’t been since Kirby. At his peak he was in the conversation for the best catcher in the history of the game. It was the right move. No question. Even with the benefit of hindsight. Have to do that deal 100% of the time.

Lewis hasn’t been healthy for more than a few weeks at a time in 4 years. Polanco has injury problems. Martin and Miranda stink. Problem solved. Are we the only fan base that is always agonizing about having too many players that aren’t any good? Remember the outfield logjam hysteria of a couple years ago? Now we have none. You can never have too much depth.

If Buxton doesn’t find his way back to the outfield, he might be a worse player than Stanton right now (and Buxton is 4 years younger). Stanton has 100 fewer ABs this year and only 2 fewer HRs. Stanton is driving in about .18 runs per AB, Buxton about .14. Though, the slash lines are nearly identical. They are both hitting primarily in the 3-4 hole and Stanton hasn’t really had better players in front of him. Judge has been hurt, it’s been a lot of Gleybar Torres (who is no better than Julien), Volpe (who’s been no better than Correa), LeMahieu (who’s been awful), Rizzo (who’s been bad). Some things called Bauer and Peraza. This year, Stanton has a higher ISO (.245 to .230), a higher HR rate (6.4 to 4.9), a much lower K rate (24% to 31%), a higher hard hit rate (50.3% to 45.7%), he hits the ball to all fields better (25.5% pull rate to 39.7%). Factoring those numbers, and the fact that Stanton has nearly equal production in fewer PAs, and some hard luck (BABIP of .197 vs. Buxton’s .253), and it looks like Stanton is the better hitter right now…..and it’s not really close. Stanton has played 307 games since 2021, Buxton 238. That’s resulted in 140 more total bases. He’s walked 51 more times than Buxton over that stretch. Driven in 90 more runs. He’s struck out at a lower rate than Buxton over that time (28% to Buxton’s 30%). Buxton’s only real saving grace in that comparison is his phenomenal 2021 season where he had an OPS+ of 171….but he only played in 101 of the teams games that year. That was his age 27 season. Stanton’s age 27 season was a 169 OPS+…..BUT….a .281/.376/.631 slash with 59 HRs, 123 Rs, 132 RBI and he played 159 games. Oh, and he was the fricken MVP. That’s over 50% of the home runs Buxton has hit in his entire career. Finally, Stanton has played 100+ games in 10 of his 14 seasons. Buxton 1 of 9. You’re comparing Buxton to Stanton as if it’s a bad thing. We can only dream of Buxton being Stanton. The Yankees may want to be mildly worried that Stanton might eventually age down into the prime version of Buxton.

We might have jumped the gun on proclaiming Joe Ryan a really good pitcher. Dude’s going to have a 5 ERA soon.

No. Absolutely not. Doing nothing only makes sense when you’re on vacation. If you’re not trying to win now, or accumulate young talent to try to win at some point in the future, you’re doing damage to your franchise. It’s not a baseball strategy to stand pat. It was a business strategy (and a bad short sighted one). They were never giving up prospects to buy. They’re not that dumb. They don’t have the ammo go get to elite guys, and anything else was just rearranging deck chairs on the titanic (Tommy “stabbed at a strip club” Pham wasn’t getting this team anywhere). Selling was the move. They (whoever that is between ownership or FO) wouldn’t do that out of fear of losing attendance/revenue. This year is gone. Sitting here watching them their butts kicked by the Cardinals (getting shut out again), I don’t care about winning the division. I don’t care about playoffs. They don’t deserve to be called a playoff team. They stink. They don’t deserve to sneak into the playoffs, win one game in a series, and be celebrated for ending that steak. They deserve every bit of criticism, calls for hot seats, etc. All they’ve earned here is to be fired. Anyway, long story short, forgoing the opportunity to add to the prospect pool was a mistake, in my opinion.

Julien might be the team MVP at this point, even though he’s spent half the season in the minors and can’t play defense. Dude’s got a .908 OPS, 150 OPS+, and 2.0 oWAR in about 200 PAs. Extrapolate that WAR out over a full seasons worth of PAs, and we’re talking about a damn good hitter. For reference, Nelson Cruz had a 4.3 oWAR in 521 plate appearances in 2019, and he finished 9th in MVP voting. If Julien kept up his pace, he’d register over 5.1 oWAR in 520 PAs. More perspective, that’s more than Mookie Betts, Pete Alonso, Trea Turner, George Springer, Vlad Jr., etc. in 2022. Luis Arraez had 3.8 oWAR in 2022. All very loosely calculated based on ESPN stuff, but holy cow.

So, Cleveland’s front office is smart enough to see the writing on the wall and isn’t scared to make deals? Good for them. I don’t care about what Cleveland did. They still will likely beat this dog and pony show we have for the division, which makes it all the more egregious. The Twins coughing up a big contract for a player for the second time in franchise history doesn’t change the fact that they’ve been running circles around our FO in terms of roster management on a budget for quite a long time now. Anybody we’ll face in the playoffs, if we do make it, got much better and is going to drub us like they would a little league team. Winning this division isn’t an accomplishment. It should be the baseline.

If the roster isn’t worth investing in, trade players for prospects. Doing nothing with all of these expiring contracts (Gray, Maeda, Kepler, etc.) is so cowardly and such awful resource management.

False. MLB players get W-2s for each state in which they play a game. He’d be playing more games in California vs. Michigan. California’s top marginal income tax rate is nearly 14%. Michigan’s is between 4-5%. He’d be paying 10% more tax on home games (and the other multitude of away games vs. the Giants and Pads). Thats why people hire accountants. To save them money. He saved a ton (by my standards) by staying in Detroit. The national league isn’t easier on pitchers anymore. He’s currently pitching in the worst division in baseball with nobody that can score runs, on a team with zero expectations and pressure. He’s not going to get a substantially better deal going to Dodgers in his next round of free agency. If he struggles in any way, he’s much more likely to get yanked from the rotation and not get another shot. Also, personal opinion here, but LA sucks. If I got offered a transfer to an office out there I’d turn it down also. But, to each their own.

I’d be OK with Thomas for De Andrae, Headrick, and Lewis. No question. Not really interest in the others. Hernandez at a discount would be OK. Why do so many think it’s a good idea to bring Pham into this already mentally fragile clubhouse? I don’t know much about the guy as a person. But, when you’re getting stabbed outside of strip clubs, punching teammates over fantasy football, saying on record that you want to fight fans for heckling you, etc., a few red flags come up. Who knows how long that special kind of individual (to put it kindly) will even be able to play before picking up a suspension. The Mets are clearly dysfunctional in some way, despite having strong winning personalities/leaders like Verlander, Lindor, Sherzer, even character guys like McNeil, Alonso, Corrasco, young studs like Alvarez and Baty…there’s something going on in that clubhouse that doesn’t smell right. Not sure I want to bring any part of that here. Pham’s last 50 PAs, he’s slashing .186/.327/.279. 2 of the 3 years before this he’s OPS’d .686 and .624. The peak in those 3 years is .723. He slugged well under .400 in all 3 of those years. Lastly, he’s been dealing with Groin injury for a while now. He just left a game in the third inning after hobbling to first about a little over a week ago. For a multitude of reason, on the field and off, I wouldn’t touch Pham with a 10 ft pole.

They should be selling some things off, IMO. This FO just never seems to make the right call. They don’t have the stones to go after a premier player at the deadline when they should. They don’t have the stones to sell off expiring guys like Gray, Maeda, etc when they should. It’ll be another half-assed milquetoast deadline that won’t accomplish anything meaningful for the current or future years. They may get some washed reliever with shoulder problems, or maybe some marginal RH bat. The media will then praise the savvy and roll out the old faithful, “Lewis, Thielbar, etc. coming back later is like making a trade.” The deadline has been the same for Twins fans going back decades. Aside from Shannon Stewart and maybe Orlando Cabrera, I can’t think of a meaningful, highly successful move as a buyer. It’s typically guys like Kevin Jepsen, Matt Capps, Tommy Milone, etc. With the team looking dead in the water, there’s no point and trading controllable assets for something like that.

You also start the playoffs with the same players, coaches, and manager that you had during the regular season.

It seems likely that Kepler and Gallo will be gone. Alex K. is having a hard time staying healthy. Wallner is no guarantee to succeed. Seems like they’ll need a LH bat and someone that can play corner OF/DH next year. He’s cheap. Offers some upside. It’s a coin flip right right now that this team makes the playoffs. If they do, they’ll be fairly heavy underdogs against anybody they play. The prospects of a deep playoff run aren’t looking good. Without packaging a top guy, which they can’t do, the return in a Larnach trade wouldn’t change that. I’m overly opposed to it. I’m not overly high on Larnach. I just don’t really see a reason to trade him for a marginal rental player. I can’t see them doing that.