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JD-TWINS

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Everything posted by JD-TWINS

  1. JD-TWINS
    No options with Paddack, pretty sure that’s right & signed through ‘25. ……..SWR hasn’t thrown a bunch of innings so far at 23 (neither has Paddack) so I think he might get a break for 2-3 weeks…..so he’s available through September. Maybe Paddack has a minor “injury” and goes to IL. He could be a weapon in late September and into October from the Pen! I don’t see them doing anything in trades for pitching. Henriquez & Stewart …….maybe Topa seem to be what’s used to get through 162 games. It’s very likely that they commit by September 15 to moving Varland to a relief role. Paddack a week or so later. Lewis strengthens the line-up so much I’d have to lean to (even 85% of his health) him to be the most valuable add from the injury list.
  2. JD-TWINS
    If he has a similar ERA in 10 weeks, it may be a good option. ……..still doesn’t mean he’s going to be ROY though.
  3. JD-TWINS
    Jack Morris pitched 30-40 years ago - not really sure what you’re rambling about with reference to him? A few guys often discussed as interesting potential acquisitions here at TD: Sonny Gray career WHIP 1.195 Seth Lugo career WHIP 1.15 Jack Flaherty career WHIP 1.185 Jesus Luzardo career WHIP 1.252 Nathan Eovaldi career WHIP 1.288
  4. JD-TWINS
    $6M this year for the balance of the season. Absence of Farmer - Kepler - Margot - Santana adds up to $24M less spending in ‘25. They’ll have some arbitration increases but it’s worth considering. Berrios stats are pretty good other than a propensity to give up HR’s. His strikeouts are at a career low but his WHIP is still very good at 1.13. 115 innings this far leads one to believe he’ll get to 200 innings this year. 3.76 ERA and averages over 6 innings per start - could be a nice addition.
  5. JD-TWINS
    Good stuff! Throwing strikes and making guys swing. - few walks - 5th lowest WHIP is great!! Teams are going to get hits and score, but giving up few cheap runs and have the ability to pitch out of trouble. Strikeouts are Waay down on offense and lots of XBH…..nice combination!!
  6. JD-TWINS
    MANY pundits had him in their Top 5 for A.L. Cy Young going into the season. He was Top 3 in the game in K’s in ‘23. He’s on pace to get to 200 K’s again in ‘24 with 190 innings again as well. His ERA is inflated due to a handful of bad outings, of the 18 starts he’s had. His SO rate & walk rate are very good - his WHIP is 1.19 so I think his Earned Run issues are fixable. He’s given up too much contact by getting behind and not being locked in with his change-up. He gave up 1 run in 2 starts, over 12 1/3 innings for a .71 ERA in PLAYOFFS in ‘23.
  7. JD-TWINS
    I don’t think there’s any doubt Paddack is in the Pen in October. I know this is boring & I’m in the minority, but I don’t see any changes as being a necessary move to be successful. Varland to the Pen in September and Paddack with 10 days left in September gets the last 2 guys displaced. That’s all that will be needed. I’m assuming Stewart is healthy and contributing in September as well……add those 3 to Staumont - Alcala - (a lefty) - Jax - Duran. My possible add - would be a trade with the Blue Jays for Berrios. They need spending freedom to sign Guerrero & Bichette, possibly? Berrios slots as our #2 guy for next 3-4 years. Festa & 2 other guys (Julien) and maybe a young prospect? He’s $20M/yr average for 4 years and he’s 30…….that’s what decent pitchers cost…….he’s at $18.7M for next 2 years and then goes up for last 2 years.
  8. JD-TWINS
    He hit .080 over 3 weeks against nearly all RH pitchers to start the year……..pretty sure Popkins/Baldelli and anyone else with a pulse knows his numbers in the minors v. LH pitching - right? Still, he gets platooned for in the Show. Is Rocco trying to throw games with his vegas connections? Seriously. AA & AAA are great but many guys excel in the minors and don’t play much in MLB. There are tangible reasons in Management’s opinion that he shouldn’t be hitting against LH pitching, at this point in his career…..doubt they want to fill in America on what those weaknesses may be as it is a competitive world. There’s a chance there isn’t all that much difference between Wallner & Margot v. LH pitching but the guys that are getting paid to discern the differences between players don’t like Wallner’s odds in the short teerm.
  9. JD-TWINS
    ……ROCKS….
  10. JD-TWINS
    Vazquez will be though - put your ricks in the pillow case.😉
  11. JD-TWINS
    “No chance” is just a generality and not meant to be realistic - no more than Margot having no chance v. RH pitching. Chances are greatly diminished - how’s that? Wallner has the better upside than Margot if they can only carry one guy, absolutely no doubt!!!……,my point is they don’t need to carry one guy. I can’t defend (though I really like him as a guy) Farmer. He’s had some tough luck, but doesn’t everyone, on well hit balls. No HR’s is a telling stat!!!! MANY people look at Margot’s “year” and use the totality to justify making a move now or “soon”. He, just like Wallner in St. Paul, has improved from mid-May forward……a bunch. The disparity on Margot’s AB’s, RH pitching v. LH pitching, is multi faceted…………goes back to him coming in to Pinch hit & nearly inevitably the pitcher then gets changed……mostly it’s been necessity due to ill health from teammates and him picking up the innings. Larnach’s toe - Kepler’s shin - Wallner’s ineptitude - Kirilloff’s inability to be effective - Buxton’s knee - Julien going down and taking Castro away from OF……these issues added together forced Margot into the line-up quite often……last, if he enters the game in the middle, due to the 75% RH pitchers, he’s going to face RH pitching without that being the intent from the Manager later in the game. I guess a last thought is, one of the reasons (major reason) Wallner has less playing time in the Showin ‘24 and Margot got many of his potential AB’s in April/May/June is because Wallner was brutal & then somewhat inconsistent, with too many K’s, on his AAA assignment. It’s on him ultimately. He’s back!!!
  12. JD-TWINS
    A ROSTER is a collection of guys to help get wins. Can’t go into 25% of the situations with no chance at the plate. Who else should be on the Roster? ……….What’s the problem? Repeatedly stating 75% of AB’s come from LH batters is a point made. Still gotta have a solution for the other 25% of the time. Who is more valuable between Margot & Wallner? This seems to be the premise or question. As you stated, Wallner looks like Barry Bonds over his first 6 AB’s/PA’s. We don’t know yet. I’d bet a whole bunch on the hunch that Wallner is the better player by a big margin!! However, there’s room on the Roster for numerous solutions. Wallner - Larnach - Kepler (3 LH guys that play OF & can DH v. RH pitching)………Buxton - Margot - Castro provide answers v. LH foes. Lee - Santana - Castro provide multiple solutions at varying levels of success as switch hitters. Farmer is the current additional bat v. LH pitching - Lewis to follow & probably supplant at some point. Miranda - Correa - Buxton seem to be the guys that can hit v. pitching from either side with some reliability. The catchers are in their defensive niche trying to contribute occasionally on offense. These are the 13 guys healthy enough to play and they are suited to platoon as needed. Again, I don’t see a problem. As frustrating as it may sound, the organization held on to Gallo last year through September. I think there’s a good chance of that being the path for Farmer. Hallo pulled a leg muscle and went on the IL for a piece of August which helped Team hang in to him…..maybe Farmer gets an oblique issue in a few weeks? Gallo ended up getting playing time in September because of injuries……the roster expands and they may want Farmer around for that? With Lewis hurt 70% of the time - not being funny - the organization wants to mitigate risk and Farmer may turn out to be part of that strategy? Cannot, without some unforeseen downturn, option Lee!!!! I don’t see moving Wallner again either after the 6 PA’s! Tough decisions coming.
  13. JD-TWINS
    The reality is they are both on the 26-man as was intended at the end of March. Not sure what the debate is about? One guy hits LH very well & is subpar v. RH pitching. The other hits RH pitching and is subpar v. LH pitching. 75% or so of pitchers are RH. All known stuff going into the season as well - thus the reasoning to carry both on the roster.
  14. JD-TWINS
    So, out of Spring Training they were both supposed to be on the Club. They were both terrible and Wallner had options. In June through July 3, Margot had a .899 OPS - real stuff not conjecture. Looking forward to the best of both going forward. Wallner looks locked in and hope he can stay somewhat consistent.
  15. JD-TWINS
    I’d feel better with the opportunity the Team would have with Berrios from age 30-33 at an average of $20M than with Gray from age 33-36 at an average of $25M. I’m sure many will disagree - OK.
  16. JD-TWINS
    Why not bring Berrios back? He’s affordable, IMO, through ‘28. He can opt out after ‘26, so at least 2 more years of control. $18.7M per year…….he goes up in ‘27 & ‘28 but everyone will cost more then…..could potentially move him after ‘25 if others need $$ or develop from the system? He has matured and you know what you’re going to get for the most part, going forward. Again, IMO, he can be a mirror image of a good Pablo Lopez when on his game. He can be up & down somewhat as well but most pitchers are - right? He’s a potential playoff weapon. Julien & Festa & Headrick……somebody from A or AA as well?
  17. JD-TWINS
    I realize that Okert didn’t help the cause much on Monday. Jeffers throw to 2B was a bit of a shocker as well in the quest to try and get a win. However, I tried to put this behind me and just can’t, Griffin Jax is too good to give up runs like that last night! He walks a guy to start the inning - cannot do that with a lead, ever & against this line-up it makes no sense. Stuff happens. Anyway, he wild pitches a guy to 3B, again stuff happens. But when facing Lopez he didn’t throw a fastball, that I could recognize, the entire AB. All he has to do is throw 95 plus in the zone and there’s an outstanding chance the inning is over. He does not - count moves to 3-2 and the guy hits a change-up off the handle that lands in the dirt over the 3B head. Next guy he blows away with 97 in the zone repeatedly. Gotta call a better game & gotta make pitches that make sense when capable of making them. Trying to be cute with off speed to a banjo hitter and then showing off your fastball v. the next guy, after a run scores, makes zero sense. Come on!!! Need the 8th inning HOLD v. the White Sox!
  18. JD-TWINS
    11-5 in games started by Paddack…..gives the Team a chance! Some nights he locates and his plan seems much better. Getting better & better between his ears. Can get a little stubborn with the “want” to throw his fastball but better that than throwing an uncomfortable change-up. He looked decent after time off - 1.00 WHIP! 11-5 in games started by SWR….also, gives the Team a chance. Louie Varland starts - team is 1-5…..live & learn. Not such a terrible thing that they let Maeda & Gray depart……………..combined, the other 3 starters are about where one would expect relative to Wins & Losses to date. I really hope Wallner can be a portion of what we’ve seen so far. He was batting 9th and one hopped the fence for a double and then almost hurt somebody with a 116.7 MPH exit velocity dinger! Seems selective or more disciplined as well. It’s a half dozen plate appearances - fingers crossed!
  19. JD-TWINS
    Twins have a few other guys that are Franchise #1 picks on the Roster as well. Larnach - Kirilloff - Wallner (round 1.5) - Martin (Toronto’s pick) - Buxton - Lee Nice level of highly regarded talent on the roster!
  20. JD-TWINS
    Can play every day if needed - definitely a platoon guy v. RH pitching. Decent DH option that can play either corner OF spot. I think he’s a .265 guy with 20 HR power and maybe 20 doubles - with 400 AB’s these are reasonable expectations.
  21. JD-TWINS
    I like Lee at 3B with Correa next to him….seems very solid for another 2-3 years at a minimum. Miranda seems to be a lock going forward at 1B. Question #1 is, how good will Julien play/hit? Question #2 is, where does Royce fit in defensively? My preference, in a perfect offensive world is getting ALL the good bats in the line-up and that takes compromise & flexibility in thinking. Lee & CC on left side regularly……Julien & Castro at 2B with Castro as the RH hitting side of a platoon. Miranda at 1B maybe 50% of the time. Now the sticky part…….Lewis in LF when Castro goes to 2B, v. LH pitching……Lewis at 1B 30% of the time - shared with Miranda……Lewis at DH 35% of the time. Harmon Killebrew & Greg Luzinski & Orlando Cepeda all played LF……Lewis is at risk every time he crosses the white lines but LF seems like a pretty safe bet - coupled with time at 1B. Not that I care, but his bat profiles as a LF or 1B or DH. Larnach can DH v. RH pitching - he can spell Castro in LF as well. Wallner in RF…….Martin or other RH hitting guy to platoon with Wallner v. lefties.
  22. JD-TWINS
    Guys being creative and gaining some positive mojo……having some fun!! Gotta enjoy it - right?
  23. JD-TWINS
    He could really only be considered at DH in my opinion. He isn’t an All-star at 3B. Probably doesn’t have (due to fewer reps) any cache as a true DH at this point. His numbers are very nice with the bat. Hopefully, we’re having these discussions about Miranda again in the future!
  24. JD-TWINS
    Poor yourself a cool drink……the comment on MLB the next morning was they pulled Miranda after 10 hits in a row in a blowout so he wouldn’t get plunked. ……oddly enough, his first AB in Saturday he did get hit. Don’t really think it was intentional but the pitch “in” was meant to be IN. Martin got an AB in a game where the Team was getting torched…..he got on & scored. Seems like a deep dive above to just complain.
  25. JD-TWINS
    Through Wednesday the 3rd…..Margot at .899 OPS from start of June…….not a terrible 2nd half of May. So, a terrible first 6 weeks and an above average last 7 weeks. Farmer is certainly on the edge but with a guy like Lewis in the infield mix, they’ll keep Farmer as long as possible to ensure depth. Correa’s injury - Wallner’s complete ineffectiveness - Larnach’s injury - Kepler’s injury - Kirilloff’s injury - Julien’s ineffectiveness - Buxton’s injury ………,the compiling of these details are what forced Margot & Farmer into the line-up when other LH bats were unavailable or guys (CC&Buck) that hit v. pitchers from both sides were unavailable. It’s not Rocco saying to himself, “screw it, I’m going off the board and want to irritate the fans & start Farmer and Margot v. RH pitching”……..somebody has to play when there are limited options.
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