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JD-TWINS

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  1. JD-TWINS
    ARAEZ: Hits as a slap/on base guy because he bats lead-off. Guarantee he can hit 12-14 HR’s and .305 batting 3rd or 5th. His RBI would go up from 48 to 80. Also, down in the line-up he protects the guy in front of him. Trading hitting talent is not good……314 lifetime over 4 seasons - managed to find a spot for him in the line-up 144 times in ‘22. Doesn’t matter if he’s loved or hated, can’t trade his bat. Sign 2-3 FA arms and we’re good! (Wacha - Cueto - Fulmer - Hand - Chafin) all reasonable options) When healthy, Gordon is our starting LF for next 6 years! IMO.
  2. JD-TWINS
    ………maybe work Martin into the trade with Kepler & Celestino & set some other franchise up in the OF, for an arm. Or maybe Celestino & López & Pagan & Kepler for an arm?
  3. JD-TWINS
    Celestino should be part of a trade along with, Pagan, Kepler, López for best we can get. Can’t hit the ball to left of 2nd baseman - no power - not bright on bases - OK outfielder. He got innings last year because 5 outfielders in front of him in the organization were hurt - no other reason. 2024 roster estimation: Infield……..If Correa signs one of Lee - Lewis - Julien - Miranda will get traded due to their upside & everyday player ability. Arraez. Catcher………Vázquez & Jeffers DH………Larnach (placeholder - actually a rotation) Outfield……….Gordon - Walner - Kirilof - Rodriguez - Buxton Kirilof & Arraez & Buxton & Walner get DH at bats…….Kirilof plays as much 1B as OF. Payroll is $45 million OR $74 million. Would prefer to have $105 million for our pitching staff, if needed!!! (vs. $76 million)
  4. JD-TWINS
    Player attraction is driven by $$$ & winning tradition. Minneapolis is what it is…..can’t dress it up to be New York. Pay guys & start winning Divions - playoff games!! In the interest of winning now, spend some of the available $ we do not need to pay CC. Get a Wacha or Cueto to start the year so we can groom Varland another 2-3 months (remember, Mahle may collapse after 5 starts or he could be a surgery candidate by March 20???) Assuming health, getting another starter allows Maeda to move to the Pen. Strengthens Pen dramatically & conserves Maeda’s arm first half of year. At the end of June you can displace whoever you like out of rotation based on results……..maybe Maeda becomes starter? …….maybe the FA is performing? …….maybe SWR or Varland are really ready!! Take another $17 million & sign Fulmer from FA market & another reliever, a left hander, from FA market. Our staff would have great depth & would be formidable. The guys are out there to sign. Act.
  5. JD-TWINS
    Maybe extend Polanco with decent performance? Extend 2 or 3 pitchers due up for FA with decent performance through June. Get a couple FA relievers now and we can be in the playoffs this year!!
  6. JD-TWINS
    Completely agree: I never get down on the FO as I’ve stated there’s 25 other teams in as much turmoil every year…….every year. Do we all really think that nobody in our organization, FO, sees the possible FA signings…..not dummies………they know what they’ve been told they can spend or what they should ask for in budget! Gotta admit, I do disagree on what appears to be our path forward with Maeda as a starter - no FA starters signed (Cueto/Wacha still there for depth) when there has been opportunity - no Relievers signed via FA & still 4-5 available. Leaning on López & Pagan makes me feel sick but I’m not a talent scout, only a fan for 50 plus years and rely on eye test & results (not what may lead to results someday due to apparent analytics)…….Brad Hand (or similar) & Michael Fulmer replacing these two seems obvious and very affordable! Very comfortable with SS now & in future. For the most part, I like our starting pitching and the depth we have coming!! Vazquez is a big upgrade over Sánchez. We had to play our 7th & 8th Outfielders in the organization last year for last couple months…….Larnach, Kepler, Kirilof, Buxton, & Garlick were all hurt …..we had to start Celestino & Cave repeatedly. Polanco was out. Ober - Winder - Maeda - Gray - Mahle - Paddock……,all out for some or all of the season, all back to start or at some point in ‘23……….am echoing your comments about “…..boatload of talent coming off injury…”……we don’t need to reload or tear things down, nor do we need a $30 million SS. Tweak the staff with 2-3 FA signings & with a trade of some high potential/talented guys like KEPLER - CELESTINO - LÓPEZ - PAGAN. Can win 90 plus games with a little positive action……efforts going forward. Go TWINS!
  7. JD-TWINS
    “Develop talent internally….” is every FO mantra! With Lee - Lewis & more possibilities at SS in our system, along with stable veteran in Farmer on roster, what are we doing chasing Correa? Sign a starter Wacha/Cueto to add depth/experience out of the gate. Maeda moves to Pen for at least 3 months to add depth there and bring him back slow. Sign Fulmer & either Hand or Chapin………drop Pagán - López - & let Alcalá start out in St. Paul. Outstanding bullpen with added starter experienced/depth ……3 guys for $28 million max.
  8. JD-TWINS
    I like our starters and the young guys behind them for depth. Between Woods/Richardson - Winder - Varland there has to be ONE success!! I like the thought of Wacha or Cueto to bring experience early in the year & with that, the ability to move Maeda to Pen for at least 2.5 months, maybe entire year. Duran - Thielbar - Jax - Moran - Maeda - Megill (with new 3rd pitch ?) - Chafin/Hand - Fulmer…….possibly the best Pen in baseball. Cost, additional $28 million/yr we have available. (Cueto-Hand-Fulmer) Alcala a 15 minute drive away …….same with a reworked López. Lopez, to me, is one step behind Pagan on the way out the door. He had numerous poor years prior to ‘22 with pretty good stuff. He was lights out in 44 appearances in ‘22 (1st year in Pen) for Baltimore, and they moved him - why??? Fluke maybe? Anyway, he needs work with pitching coach & psychologist to square him away. Please just spend the $ on FA available pitching……..feel secure with Farmer at SS & with Farm System depth coming……..quit talking about some need to trade Arraez while his value is high. .314 lifetime average over 4 years - plays 4 positions - played 144 games in ‘22. He hit 8HR’s last year and is capable of 3-6 more HR’s/year if he hits down in the order vs. being in the lead-off role (get on base mentality). Carew hit 14 HR’s 2 of 3 years batting in 3 hole vs. batting 1st or 2nd most of first half of his career ……..,different approach, different job, different results!! He hit .360 plus for 4 plus months in ‘22……..ran out of gas and hit .260 last 7 weeks. Pretty sure he can hit .305 & manage 12 HR (with some normal rest) til he’s 30 & beyond!!!
  9. JD-TWINS
    WHY? Astros seemed to be OK without CC. Pitching should be our emphasis! Plenty of relievers to sign to strengthen BP!! Why were Astros not stressed about letting CC go? Capable rookie replacement behind him…………..LEWIS - LEE are trailing Farmer later this year or ‘24 for sure. Continue to try & focus on Pitching depth & talent. Why CC & not pitching?
  10. JD-TWINS
    Kepler has to be traded. Can’t sign Gallo with 3-4 other LH hitting corner outfielders behind him (Gordon - Walner - Kirilof - Larnach) & then keep Kepler as well. Kepler - Celestino - Pagan together, maybe with a prospect if needed, for an arm is a great way to clarify our outfield options. McCutchen may not mash LH pitching anymore but I’ll take his availability, his capabilities, & his leadership. I like him over Garlick. He could also displace Walner early in the year and then by July we decide if Garlick or McCutchen is our better option. He’s definitely worth the few million $ that we won’t be paying Kepler nor the FA pitchers we haven’t signed!
  11. JD-TWINS
    Agreed - I’ve stated that there is no logic behind Nick Gordon not being our everyday LF. He can be part of the platoon/rest help for Polanco (15 games or so) as well as the primary platoon/rest for Buxton (35 games or so). If he rests 20 games, that leaves 92 games in LF. Assuming Kepler is gone! Polanco is solid at 2nd. His ‘22 season was a down year from a guy who averages 20 plus HR’s and hits .270. If he can get back to “average Jorge” everyone will be happy. Gordon can give us 15 games at 2nd & Arraez another 15 games. If we get another 5-10 games from some youth guy (Lewis - Lee?) in August/September, Polanco should have plenty of rest. Tangent thoughts on rest: Arraez at 2B for 15 games - at 1B for 80 games - at 3B for 10 games (no other options) - at DH for 25 games…….he should be well rested at least w/o unforeseen stress. Kirilof at 1B for 65 games……LF maybe 20 games to maintain competency………DH 25 games. Larnach in LF for 15 games to maintain competency……….primary DH for 50 games……25 games in RF. Garlick (or Andrew McCutchen preferably) in LF for 40 games. DH for 20 games. Buxton in CF 100 games……….DH for 25 games. Gotta stay healthy! …….If he can’t play 100 games in CF, we need to seriously consider moving him to LF in ‘24 & DH him 60 games/year going forward to protect his legs. Gallo plays RF most of the time unless he washes out due to no production. Walner (McCutchen??) waiting in the wings. Gallo in RF for 85 games and in CF for 25 games. Vazquez 10 games at DH………Everyday Catcher for 110 games………Jeffers for 50 games at Catcher & 5 games at DH. Farmer at SS for 145 games & we’re scrambling to get him a day off in the first half of the year!! Unresolved, unless we let Gordon play 10 less games in LF and roll with him at SS reserve in 1st half for 10 games. Will need Lewis or Lee for 2nd half to spell Miranda & Farmer during the dog days. Miranda at 3B for 135 games and maybe an additional handful at DH &/or 1B? Generally, a path through the year here. Walner is odd man out for playing time to start the year. As Lee or Lewis becomes available mid-summer Walner (or worst performing LH bat) will get sent down. Andrew McCutchen instead of, or as another option along side of, Garlick could be a really nice signing!
  12. JD-TWINS
    Thanks again for putting the list together for all to tear apart: Asset Value is a difficult term, & to not have a bunch of subjectivity rolled into each choice, is nearly impossible. Most needed - best hitter - health - age/experience - potential - power - defense are all variables along with another 4-5 attributes I’m not listing. IMO comments: - Vázquez should be there via some metric or point of view. - A healthy Mahle could be a solid extension candidate or a trade piece later this summer. - I’ve beaten to death that Arraez should be in Top 4. - Last, how do we have 2 SS in the system that are viewed as guys in our Top 5 of assets in the organization & still have a large % of fandom in these posts think “we need a SS” - “we’re desperate for a SS”. Don’t get it???? Farmer is fine until somebody is ready…..even if not until ‘24.
  13. JD-TWINS
    I live in Cincinnati - Farmer is a MLB shortstop!! He’s middle of the pack but he can play SS nearly every day for the 2 years he has left on deal, if needed………I agree, Lewis playing about 3-4 weeks total between St. Paul & Mpls last year doesn’t mean he’s going to excel after a 2nd ACL surgery this year…..at least not immediately! Fantasy!! Hoping by end of July he’s ready at some level worth trying with big club. I like the idea of signing McCutchen……solid D and great doubles guy vs. LH pitching. He displaces Garlick (maybe Walner) in my opinion. We’d be a better club. Better guy on the bench - great energy & a player!! Understood he may have 2 years max left in the tank. Platoon guy and a great RH experienced bat as PH from the bench in situations as well! VS. LH pitching: Buxton - McCutchen - Miranda - Vázquez (DH) - Arraez - Polanco - Farmer - Jeffers - Walner (maybe Garlick is kept & Walner is in St. Paul getting to play every day……. for a few months so we can classify what we think of Gallo’s performance?) Garlick in left - McCutchen in right - Buxton in CF vs. LH pitching. McCutchen adds team speed - no real loss in power from Garlick - better & more flexible defensive options - great bench/locker room presence!!! Assuming he may force us to spend an extra $5 - $8 million over Garlick…..very worthwhile. McCutchen makes more sense than breaking Spring Training with Walner - Gallo - Kirilof - Larnach - Gordon as our corner outfield options & all being LH batters!
  14. JD-TWINS
    VS. Left handed pitching : Buxton - Polanco - Miranda - Garlick (LF)- Arraez - Vázquez (DH) - Farmer - Jeffers - Walner (RF) Kirilof - Gordon - Larnach - Gallo Another solid line-up if we can stay healthy. Somebody from the Larnach - Kirilof - Walner - Gallo - Garlick group will need to be displaced by Lewis mid-July. Better IF utility option guy & a probable needed RH bar by mid year. Garlick, if productive, stays for RH options………Gallo has 12-15 HR’s by mid-July or he’s trade bait - maybe DFA’d?
  15. JD-TWINS
    Exactly my point……if oft injured Polanco hit .316 he’d have had an amazing season. If somehow Kepler hit 8HR’s but hit .316 he’d be up for an extension. If somehow Buxton hit half the HR’s he hit last year but had a .316 avg. it would be a great adjustment to his approach. .314 Average over FOUR years. .316 doesn’t seem to be an outlier. I get all 3 of these guys have a defensive advantage over Louis!! Given. His “knee problems” seem to be less of an issue than any of these other 3 guys health issues though, as he was in 144 games last year. 3 more homers increase per year for 2 years & maybe 20 points less BA due to a mild change in approach. Is he capable of this? This leaves him at .296 BA with 14 homers in 2024. We HOPE Alex Kirilof could do this!! Again, RBI often are driven by where you are in the line-up. Gary Sanchez - Ryan Jeffers - Garlick - Cave - Celestino weren’t exactly filling up the bases last year prior to Louis coming to bat. He’s a 75 RBI guy minimum batting 3rd or 5th. Line-up spot change is something to consider with his lack of speed. Great protection for anyone in our line-up! Buxton - Polanco - Larnach - Miranda - Arraez - Vázquez - Gordon - Farmer - Gallo………health is an issue but with some fortune, this line-up is competitive. Kirilof - Walner - Garlick - Jeffers……early in the year, Gordon & Arraez handle the infield utility action.
  16. JD-TWINS
    Had to look up Louis stats: 121 games in ‘21 (w/o a position) 144 games in ‘22 .316 batting champ in ‘22 .314 (not.313 earlier referenced) BA over 4 MLB seasons 8 HR’s in ‘22 Do we think he has the POTENTIAL to hit a mere .305 (.340 OBP) & 12 HR’s in ‘23??? How many RBI does he rack up if he doesn’t bat 1 or 2 in the line-up……70-75?? I’ll take the bet on the last statement! Trade him? 10th ranked asset??? Eye test should suffice in this case - stats take him over the top. 4 successful years not just 1. Gotta be in our Top 4 assets!
  17. JD-TWINS
    Don’t get how Arraez was #11 going into ‘22 & played probably (?) more games than anyone else last year……..maybe Gordon played more? And he came into ‘23 as #10 after winning the batting title. Many say he had a career year batting .316 in ‘22 & we should consider trading him at high value, before his knees crumble, but his average over 4 MLB seasons is .313 & I assume he started at least 140 games last year as most of the other regulars dropped around him. Ober needs to be available at some point for more than 3-4 consecutive starts to warrant #6 regardless of how many years of control we may have. Thanks for the List & fueling the debate!!
  18. JD-TWINS
    Miranda only up from late May ‘22 through September……….pace of 23HR’s in a full season. Looking forward to him climbing the asset list in ‘23!!
  19. JD-TWINS
    Trading a veteran starter that went 8-5 with a 3.08 ERA & another guy we’re forced to trade “somewhere” due to the Gallo signing for a back-up SS is senseless. Why trade arguably our best starter? Kepler & López, OK. Farmer is a middle of the pack MLB defender that will hit .255 & 14HR’s. Why is everyone panicked about our SS with 2-3 guys in Farm System on the way? We won 2 World Series with Greg Gagne. Farmer is more than adequate placeholder. You rant about signing injured/washed pitchers but you suggest obtaining Chris Sale as a big move. …..huh?????
  20. JD-TWINS
    Begged for Bassitt - then Eovaldi - thought Kluber could be justified - Wacha is as deep as we can go……….still need to go there though & start year with Maeda in the PEN. PLEASE SIGN Fulmer or Chafin or Britton to ensure BP depth! PLEASE!
  21. JD-TWINS
    Don’t get me started on Eovaldi………!!! 2 years for $34 million - almost free in the shade of the Correa offer & when contrasted with the Gallo signing!
  22. JD-TWINS
    Agreed, letting Kepler go for little or nothing makes no sense. Can’t realistically think playing Kepler every day instead of Gordon every day in our outfield makes good sense offensively. Signing of Gallo (not thrilled about) means Kepler has to go - no question. I’d prefer to keep Kepler & have never heard of the Gallo signing!! Not real. Celestino - Walner - Kepler - Sands - Winder - Pagan - López - Jeffers are all pieces we can put together for pitching or a RH bat or both. I’d like to see Walner develop into a masher in MN - love to see Jeffers hit .245 & improve defensively in MN - Seeing any of these 4 pitchers become effective would be great in MN……….can’t all happen & probably none of it happens with guys in front of them. Please use multiple trade pieces together so the return really has value!!!
  23. JD-TWINS
    Gallo is our new RF. Pretty sure Gordon starts 100 games in LF. Another 30 in CF. Larnach will play some LF & will DH. Kirilof some LF but more at 1B & some DH. Walner may beat out Gallo by August. Kepler - Pagan - López for a starter would be super!!
  24. JD-TWINS
    Wacha is as low as we can go in FA for a starter! I still feel a veteran starter from Spring Training that can get Maeda into a bridge roll out of the pen for first 2-3 months of ‘23 is beneficial. The odds of all of our starters being healthy are slim & depth (with experience) is going to be helpful vs. leaning on guys with 1-4 starts in MLB. We can ease Varland & others into the staff, if desired, through July. 6 starters may work and therefore allowing guys to work longer into games? In this case I’d use Varland or best young choice out of Spring Training, along with Wacha, and again have Maeda in the Pen. Staff: Ober - Gray - Ryan - Wacha (sign) - Mahle - Varland…………an awfully lot of RH 92-95MPH guys!!!! Fulmer (sign) - Moran - Maeda - Thielbar - Megill - Jax - Duran If we don’t move on Wacha, sign a 2nd RP from Free Agency Mkt.
  25. JD-TWINS
    Kepler will be traded at some point before March. Could not have signed Gallo with the intent of keeping Kepler. Larnach plays LF when Gordon is in Center - maybe 35 games. Larnach can play left when Gordon is forced into playing 2B when Polanco is inevitably unable to play due to his bad knees - maybe 20 games. Larnach as DH 70 games. I agree that Gordon has been ruled out of SS by the organization but if he’s our 3rd or 4th best returning batter from ‘22 he needs to play! That makes him our LF around 100 starts.
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