JD-TWINS

Pretty sure Canterino is now hurt. Varland 125 innings…….Paddack 125 innings (25 starts each) ……Ober 160 innings………Ryan 170 innings ……..Lopez 190 innings……= 770 innings SWR …….45 innings & Festa …..,,45 innings. That’s 860 starter innings…..probably would like to get to 925-950 total. That leaves 530 innings for 10-11 bullpen arms. This is based on perfect starter health for the most part. Highly unlikely. Also, there’s 60-75 innings for starters that are not attached to anyone - unaccounted for at this point. Lorenzen could be an answer. Can’t imagine doing more than 1 year for $7-$8M maximum. Anybody here about Dallas working out & looking for a job? Could be those 5-6 starts in July-August that we’ll need.

Looks like Louie is a lock! SWR/Festa in some combination ready by mid-May to come up & spot start to keep everyone fresh. Louie 120 innings spread over 5.5 months. 22 innings per month and then to the Pen September 15th. SWR throwing 2 starts back to back over 10 days………4 times through the season. 40-45 innings. Festa with a similar load totaling 40-45 innings. That’s 210 innings between these 3 guys with no heavy work load. Seems reasonable. Canterino - DeSclafani - Thielbar all questionable for ANY action in ‘24. ……Duran with a body injury - hope he’s healed in 6-8 weeks!

……..or, better yet, let Lee play 3B. Probably our best infielder. Move LEWIS to 1B & Kirilloff to LF OR move Lewis to LF & back-up at 3B. No trades, wait til Lee is ready in a few months. All good.

Ober or Ryan as “the #2” …….who cares? They pitch every 5th game and need to be competitive, that’s it……..they face who they face. So much wondering and angst over a pretty trivial thing that nobody will discuss by June, IMO. Ryan & Ober both rely on command v. velocity. I like they are both working on a “better” pitch. If they command the fastball and Ober has developed a cutter to go along with his change-up he’ll be very good. Ryan has supposedly developed a sinker to go with his sweeper……if he throws high fastball strikes the other two pitches will play. Lamenting the “production” of Sonny Gray being gone is really old, IMO. Last time from me, TEAM was 14-18 in his starts. There is no advancing deeper into the playoffs due to a low ERA during the season. He was fortunate to pick a guy off in the Toronto playoff game to escape a jam - good baseball play (kudos) - not much to do with ERA. He did not pitch well at all v. Astros in playoffs! I don’t dislike Gray & he will be missed from a competitive spirit standpoint and occasionally when a starter is getting hammered. The TEAM results are what need to be replicated or bettered. IMO Varland/Festa/SWR (assuming worst case & we never see DeScla) can pitch the TEAM to a .500 record, even if their combined ERA is 4.15 v. Gray’s 2.79. Better offense is anticipated (even a bit better) and the Pen is 10-11 guys deep…….this uptick in TEAM performance should net the Twins a few more wins than ‘23, even without Sonny.

Wallner - Larnach - Kirilloff - Martin should be the bridge to more upcoming youth. Adam Duvall signed for $3M (a Braves discount from Duvall for potential Series upside) & Taylor just signed for $4M. Grichuk signed for single digits in millions, so if they want a veteran someone will be available……,,,,if he hits a bunch this year he goes free agency for his own sake. If he’s 95% of last year’s totals they may make him an offer but not at QO level. If he’s mediocre, they shake hands and wish him well. He needs to find something soon to ignite him for this year! I saw him look at 3 straight fastballs for strikes on Saturday…….brutal AB.

I live in Cincinnati and watched them 4-5 times this week. Watched yesterday & today for sure. Today sure sounded like the Minnesota crew as the comments seemed skewed to a much better knowledge of Twin’s players. Does your subscription have all the games around MLB? Any others work OK? Seems you have a problem with the subscription being up to date. Good luck!

Good news is Vazquez looks good at the plate and behind the plate this Spring. He’s got a few strikeouts but his average (in a small set of 25 AB’s) is .280. His DRIVELINE experience seems to have sharpened him up physically & mentally. Got in better shape so he’s personally motivated as well!

He needs better command - his stuff is fine. 31 outings for the Reds in ‘23 with a 3.69 ERA. That’s reality. He only strikes out 6.5 guys per 9 innings. He walked 20 guys in 31 2/3 so he worked out of some jams for sure to have an ERA that reasonable. With better command his walks get closer to acceptable level……..nothing more frustrating than having a reliever come into a game and walk guys. See Jovani Moran. So he’s got that to work on in St. Paul - maybe see him up in July if he’s been more consistent?

I watched - his fastball looked OK. Hardly threw a sweeper the entire outing. It appeared he hung a couple change-ups and they got hammered. ………I didn’t see Arozarena’s first HR but his second was a first pitch fastball about 10” off the ground - he hammered it to straight away CF. Not a bad pitch but he seemed to be looking for a fastball down. He was starting hitters with a vertical break curve ball - looked like he was just trying things & not super focused on getting outs. Fingers crossed on March 28.

Can’t be real worried about the Team’s record as there is little cohesive effort with line-ups & pitchers to try and win games. Everyone just getting work in prior to going north. The combined batting average of our corner outfielders is .333. That’s Wallner - Margot - Kepler all 3 added together. Not great. I’ve said a handful of times and still believe that Wallner is the starter in LF. That said, 2 hits in Spring Training and an average of .077 isn’t very encouraging. If he doesn’t show a flash of something in his next 10 AB’s he may very well get a confidence boost assignment to St. Paul. He’s struck out 13 times!! Larnach is hitting at a reasonable level - maybe Wallner needs a walk-up call? Larnach hitting well - Castro hitting well - Buxton hitting well………..that’s it for the potential outfielders. Buxton hit a line drive off the top of the left field fence this afternoon and mad a diving catch in CF to rob a single. Gosh, I hope he can hold up because he looks good. Lewis - Kirilloff - Julien - Jeffers - Vazquez - Correa are all hitting just fine…………Kepler is an enigma……today he looked at 3 straight fastballs and was sitting down after 3 pitches. Hard to explain the ZERO swings. He’s going to play, regardless but Wallner & Margot need to get it together quickly! Varland is the # 5 starter & Funderburk has a spot since Thielbar isn’t in games yet. Lopez - 5 hits v. Rays today in 5 innings - 4 solo HR’s given up…….he’ll be OK. I think it’s pretty tough to have competitive focus when you know when you leave the game 6 guys you never met are playing defense and getting initial Spring Training AB’s for your team.

Looking forward to a potentially even more effective Jax!! He’s already pretty good over past 2 seasons. Okert - Staumont, even Jensen & undoubtedly, Funderburk can help Team get to Jax & Stewart with a tightened up approach…….should be fun to watch.

I don’t have any data on the decline of the Sport’s Popularity……don’t know if that’s real or presumed? I hear talks of expansion into new cities. Seems to me lots of people still going to ballparks all over the country, particularly if there is a winning product on the field. ………an opinion and not necessarily fact, is that TV revenues are down due to inability to harness how the Product is viewed. Therefore ad $$ don’t make as much sense to spend on network televised games. Just a thought. I sure hope the Team doesn’t go to the extremes that the Rays & Baltimore have gone. If they do we’ll need a Program with player’s names to watch the team from year to year due to almost no continuity nor polished veterans. Twins should draw 2 million this year with reasonable success. That, along with some 50% split of their TV $$$, big revenue share $$$ from MLB and revenues seem fairly strong, at least to me. Platoons make perfect sense offensively and flexible defensive guys are valuable as well. Inexpensive bullpen pieces are a great way to be effective and keep costs down……the organization should be applauded. Guys like Ober - Festa - Julien are well scouted and developed lower draft picks…….again, well done by organization! My recollection is we pulled off a “Ray’s trade” with the Rays when sending Cruz & acquiring Ryan. Not sure that the Ray’s are so much ahead of everyone with their approach - they have shrewd guys running things and I honestly believe the Twins F.O. - despite some mistakes/misfortune - are doing a really solid job with F.A. within budget constraints and with the youth coming through the system. The recent Polanco trade may not work out but on paper …..Topa with the Top 76 prospect OF is a good move for a declining 2B making $10.5M. DeSclafani and other prospect were throw-ins. If the organization can stay between #15-#19 in spending, per recent years, they should remain competitive, ongoing.

Not really sure why many discuss Kepler playing other OF positions? This article makes it pretty clear…….Kepler is #2 among all RF in the game over the past 5 seasons for FanGraphs defensive value!! Zero valid reason from moving him away from that kind of success! Last June I was screaming at the TV occasionally when watching Kepler at the plate. DFA was seriously a reasonable move many days. The guy turned it around more in the last 3 months than any player I’ve ever seen. …….he, Corey Seager, and 3 others in the game hit .300 plus and had 30 XBH in the 2nd half last year. Lofty company! If he can just stay within 40-50 points of his 2nd half average of .305 he’ll be very productive once again. If he hits .250 plus he’ll run into 20 doubles & 20 HR. Could be on his way to another 2.5-3.0 WAR season. That coupled with upside of Correa/Buxton/youth, the offense looks solid. It would be nice to see his output be a bit more consistent in ‘24. Let’s hope. I agree that Wallner is the answer in RF going forward both from a talent standpoint and a budgetary standpoint as well. Don’t see how Kepler gets us any compensation as he becomes an FA unless he’s offered $21M and he turns it down……..neither of those things will happen.

The guy hit .270 with a .348 OBP & 117 OPS+ in ‘23. He doesn’t need options. Hitting well v. RH pitching, primarily, isn’t unique to Kirilloff as a Left Handed bat. The Athletic did a Twins specific article couple weeks ago on the history of prominent Twins LH hitters. Oliva .690 OPS v. LH. Carew, only guy above .800 OPS v. LH pitching. Hrbek & Koskie were both around .775 or so. Bottom line was that due to how many left handed pitchers a LH faces as they develop (not many) they do not fare well as a rule………not a Wallner issue - not a Julien issue - not a Kirilloff issue. He’s a Professional Athlete - he needs to excel at whatever the Team asks him to do. If they want him to play 1B in September, he’s got 5 1/2 months to get ready. Personally, I think he starts 80 games at 1B………..Buxton at DH & Kirilloff at 1B is a better approach offensively v. RH pitching!

Do not understand the issue with signing Santana? He’s a perfect platoon guy with Kirilloff. He’s a very good defender at 1B……good enough for late inning defensive replacement. He’s not expensive. 300 plus career HR’s with 23 last year. It’s a one and done signing. ……..Kirilloff can’t “practice” 1B during games…….he’s got to work at it for hours on the side just like Julien has and continues to do. Hopefully, Santana can tutor him a bit as well. I see Kirilloff as part of the Twins at 1B for another 3-4 years.

1st paragraph - check! A call up seems to be a real stretch though……unless Santana, specifically, gets hurt I can’t imagine Miranda in ‘24. Not to doom him, Santana hasn’t missed extended time since 2014.

Not really sure DeSclafani will pitch for Twins EVER at this point. His history suggests maybe not. Varland is the 5th starter if nothing else by default. However, he’s given up zero runs in 11 plus innings this Spring……….seems he’s earned the spot as well. Really don’t understand all the comments about skipping a fifth starter often and Varland going up & down to “keep him active” in April. The TWINS SCHEDULE can’t be so unique that they are the only club in baseball to not have a fifth starter for most of a month! Everyone is concerned about innings totals with at least Ober & Paddack and we aren’t going to have a fifth starter in April because “they might get 5 or 6 days between starts” - do not get the logic nor concern. Obviously, if DeSclafani is healthy by May 1 they probably need to give him a shot to help stretch everyone’s innings. Varland can go up & down so he’s the logical fluid guy. To me, Louie is in rotation for sure on March 28 and there at least a month……….what happens if Varland is 3-1 with a 3.75 ERA through April??? DeSclafani to the 60 day from the 10 day has to be a 50/50 chance at this point. His innings help just as well mid-June through August IMO.

Encouraged - yes. Contact & base hits are always a good thing. Analyzing every base hit is tedious & fortune is part of a good average. He needs to at least be a doubles hitter with occasional power to play either corner infield spot for very long. Somewhat of a RH hitting Kirilloff? He has to play better 1B & that will be a big part of AAA games/development this year. My assumption is that the club will play him at 3B nearly 25% of the time or more just to keep trade value (versatility) higher. With a good season he may be the other side of a platoon at 1B with Kirilloff in ‘25? I think he gets traded as a depth guy for another organization. It seems to me the next few years of the Twin’s rosters will have higher expectations.

Doubt they’ll have a guy up & down if he’s the 5th starter……..he can work on the side to stay sharp. Also, Ober went to St Paul to start the year because Mahle was in the rotation……he was the “6th guy” at that point, until Mahle got hurt.

Unaware - OK. Honest question here, do they still lose a year of control if they bring Lee or anyone up too early in the season - seems this used to be an issue? Seems if they left a guy down for 2-3 weeks this/that year didn’t start the clock.

How/Why does ROY play into roster decisions? Teams aren’t trying to win guys a ROY award.

Respectfully disagree. Farmer was the starting SS just 13 months ago……he would step in for Correa, IMO. Castro would see more time in the infield as needed, along with OF duties. Martin would play infield and outfield as needed. Lee has to HIT at AAA before he gets brought up. He needs the confidence and the Team needs confidence that he’s ready on offense before playing him regularly in the Show. I think you are overestimating his hitting to date in the minors.

I think DeSclafani’s discomfort comes back, real or suggested, and he’s on IL for longer term. Not sure if the rules ………..assuming there’s a way to get between 10 days & 60 days.?

Good point - out for a month after being hit in the face - still played in 120 games……..btw, Team was 70-50 in games Farmer played. Best on team……….probably a little skewed due to late inning defense, but still impressive.

ROY, as we know, doesn’t play into anything relative to roster decisions. Lee has been good not great, as you state. That’s pretty clear! At least 2 infielders would need to be hurt for the organization to consider calling up Lee any time soon. You are absolutely right that the depth at 2B is 3 deep & all ahead of Lee. Martin actually has a better shot in the near-term. because of his ability to add depth in the grass as well.