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JD-TWINS

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Everything posted by JD-TWINS

  1. JD-TWINS
    Seems the FO focus will remain pitching to start the year (hope so) & the guys we have in organization as position players need to fill the roles. Miranda or Severino picking up starts at 1B will be key. Kirilloff at 1B maybe 130 games max. realistically. Julien needs to handle the defensive responsibilities at 2B. Martin &/or Gordon really need to be a part of the CF mix by early summer. Paddack - Ober - Ryan all have solid starter talent………hoping for consistency this year, not perfection, but generally good outings w/o serving up HR’s & walks.
  2. JD-TWINS
    Great analogy with the Individual distance runner v. a relay Team in a 9 inning race - well put!! Regardless of what we grew up watching, you & I, as well as 30 baseball organizations, like the chances of the Relay Team better!!
  3. JD-TWINS
    My suggestion, let’s use the Ohtani contract as food for thought to sign an inning’s eater, Jordan Montgomery. As the market swells for FA pitching $$ expected with Yamamoto expected to get $300M sight unseen, I’d like Twins to act. My fantasy signing for our innings eater, 157 innings, 178 innings, 184 innings over the past 3 seasons. 3.68 ERA over 7 years in the Show. Very nice playoff history! 5 years $150M. ‘24 - ‘25 $18M/year …..’26 - ‘27 $22M/year ……’28 $25M/year - $45M balance paid out $9M/year over next 5 years. Our rotation, with health, is set through 2027! Reasonable contract for both sides? OR, we start with our current Payroll Total of approximately $114M & trade Polanco to get to $104M. Then sign Montgomery for $26M/year Payroll total of $130M - a reduction of nearly 16% from last season. As I type here at 9:35 EST, Al Lieter is suggesting Jordan Montgomery to the TWINS as a great move for the organization. Fingers crossed.
  4. JD-TWINS
    Had to respond somewhere……Trent Grisham is terrible. .184 & .196 BA in the past 2 seasons with 1,079 AB’s & 304 K’s. We have so many better options internally I won’t try to list ……essentially anything we could think of to try is better, no matter how much of a reach. Bader is not much better! .650 OPS in ‘22 & .622 OPS in ‘23. Centerfield in ‘24 : Castro - Rodriguez (underdeveloped) - Martin (underdeveloped) - Gordon - Kiersy …..,IMO, any of these options are better cost benefit (benefit ceiling is pretty low) than either of the guys mentioned above. Also, Buxton MAY play 30-40 games in CF in ‘24.
  5. JD-TWINS
    Both wildcard & the head to head competition once the playoffs start - those are my concerns. ……..The Vikings don’t want to improve the Cowboys at almost any cost - right? Paranoid?
  6. JD-TWINS
    Lugo was a reliever for nearly his entire time in the Bigs. I look at it like, he was given an opportunity and he proved he could perform as a starter. His career innings are fairly low due to how he’s been used. His ERA was top 20 in the game. Certainly worth serious consideration! I am sad.
  7. JD-TWINS
    I’d stick with Castro’s development as a CF with 20-30 games of Buxton & 20-30 games of Martin in 2nd half. Castro is a switch hitter that had a .750 OPS in ‘23 & hit .258. Good speed in OF & great arm! Castro had 33 steals……with more game time he could reach 35-40 steals this year. Very valuable. If it’s shedding Kepler’s salary, it’s not a real value exchange to me. A slightly lesser glove & a lesser hitter than Taylor is not what we need in CF. Not terribly concerned about .5-1.0 reduction in defensive WAR over a season relative to contributions regularly on offense.
  8. JD-TWINS
    I am not trying to knit-pick here, I realize the discussion about trading for Seattle pitching is just an example, principally due to their potential excess of good arms. It’s potentially a great add to our staff. However, I don’t like sending one or two solid starters (every day guys, i.e. Polanco & Kepler) to a League/Playoff rival. Maybe paranoid? I’d like to try to move proven veterans to the NL as a first course of action.
  9. JD-TWINS
    Understand the concept on value but I saw last week that he was one of 4 guys (Kepler, Cory Seager, & 2 others) after the All-Star break that hit .300 or better and had 30 extra base hits. With his steady defense, Twins absolutely have to see if this continues offensive level or even 85% of it would be nice! He had a 121 OPS plus for the season and his first 10-11 weeks were brutal - he was under .200 BA at one point. He then had sustained success over the last 14 weeks.
  10. JD-TWINS
    Bummer - They’ll all be gone (FA arms) by the time we sort out what to do - just going to have to cross fingers & hope! ….This drives Wacha up to $18M for 3 years, more than likely.
  11. JD-TWINS
    HR’s are a problem with Ryan - no question. He just seems to get loose with his command within the zone. The ERA separation between Gray & Ryan at the end of June - maybe 70 innings for each - could be 5 runs or so, not a different stratosphere.
  12. JD-TWINS
    No opposition to this - seems like anybody that throws 95.8MPH on average with 3 options left could/would/should be a value to support the bullpen depth! Not sure why Dodgers would move him?
  13. JD-TWINS
    How many times have you received a raise and then when the economy shifted or the business weakened, you took or told the ownership to pay you only 40% of what you agreed to 9 months prior??? Nobody is concerned here with who your daughter dates……….CC is not the problem. FO and ownership knew about the unstable TV deal and we’re ALL aware of the fact that athletes have up & down seasons, particularly if they’re hurt. Did your future son in law give back any money during the 2.5 years of absolute brutal performance at the plate prior to late June of ‘23? I like Max - I’m not in love with Correa, but come on!
  14. JD-TWINS
    It’s doable - don’t like displacing Kirilloff, our “Natural” just 18 months ago. Theoretically, he will be healthy and even stronger than ‘23 and available April 1. BA of .270 in first “full” season with a .793 OPS. IMO, he needs to play & start 130 games. Wallner & Kepler both had OPS north of .800 in ‘23. I like Kirilloff and hope he can reach his potential of 20 HR & .285 BA in a near perfect world. As I state essentially every day here, I take whatever assets we think Brewers will take for Burnes & shift off of him to obtain Devin Williams. He’s at $6.25M in ‘23 (which we can afford while keeping Polanco, etc.) & under control for TWO years. He can affect 115 games over 2 seasons. This makes our Pen elite and lessens the burden on the starters. Then, trade Polanco and maybe Vazquez (throw in $3M per year for salary help) to sign a Wacha or Lugo or such. Varland locked in as a starter. Williams at the deadline might be more workable? Plant the seed now with Milwaukee. To me, everyone not on 26 man nor Lee & Jenkins is tradable.
  15. JD-TWINS
    Am assuming they trade Polanco for some benefit but principally to shed his salary v. his limited availability. ‘23 OPS for projected starters v. RH pitching: .840 - .750 - .793 - .920 - .816 - .711 - .877 - .732 - .859 Julien - Castro - Kirilloff - Lewis - Kepler - CC - Wallner - Buxton - Jeffers ……..the only anticipated regression might be Castro & Wallner - right? Castro may have 25 sac bunts with this line-up as well as 25 bunt hits. With talents like a healthy CC & Buxton sprinkled through the line-up is a big advantage! CC & Buxton can’t be worse than ‘23 & still be playing so this is pretty encouraging.
  16. JD-TWINS
    Burnes as a rental at $14M for a bunch of trade capital & then sign Hoskins………that’s a pipe dream.
  17. JD-TWINS
    To me, expectations need to be tempered. There is no perfect team - no perfect staff. This, “we need to trade for a co-#1 or a #2 guy to start playoff games”, or else, is a little over the top. Arizona was in the World Series in ‘23 & take a look at their staff. They won 84 games during the season. Chins up Twins fans!! Let’s be realistic, Gray was 15-19 in his starts (lack of run support, true) a .441 winning % in ‘23. He won a playoff game and got out of a major jam v. Toronto by picking a guy off 2B. His other playoff start wasn’t good!! The team didn’t lose some savior! He was very good and fun to watch but he’s not Tom Seaver. If we got Lugo (as an example), who carried a 3.53 ERA last year, for $13M it would be a huge plus. Added depth to keep himself, Ober, & Paddack fresh through the year with Varland contributing heavily as a starter. Playoff Staff: 12 guys………. Gm #1 Lopez Gm #2 Ryan - Paddack as a piggyback Gm #3 Ober - Varland as a piggyback Gm #4 Lugo if needed with short rest days, doubtful Funderburk - Thielbar - Canterino/Alcala - Jax - Stewart - Duran Seems this is a very competitive staff up against nearly any other team. Can we trade Polanco & Vazquez (kick in $3M/year to make happen)? This allows team to then take current payroll down to $100M & sign Jordan Montgomery for $26M……I like that as well but don’t see it as a do or fail!
  18. JD-TWINS
    I live in Cincinnati and, trust me, watching Mahle pitch is a lot like watching Emilio Pagan. Constantly waiting for the inexplicable walk after up 1-2 in a count and then a HR! All the “baseball pundits” said when Mahle got out of Cinti he would not give up as many HR due to bigger confines. First start in Minneapolis, 3 HR. Pretty good talent but not a good mental approach - always trying to strike guys out and then high pitch count and then walks and then HR’s. He’ll drive you crazy.
  19. JD-TWINS
    Well said! Lugo - Wacha - etc. would be adequate to provide us with enough depth to push through the season. Enables Twins to ease the load on any guy in the rotation during July/ August. These guys (FA) are affordable but probably won’t be around for more than another couple weeks. Completely agree on acquiring the #1 v. #5 guy ……doesn’t matter. Can he pitch in the playoffs and maintain an ERA of 4.00 or better? That’s the target baseline. Our top 3 guys are capable & completely agree that Paddack showed potential to be the #2 if he can hold up with reasonable health. Team was 15-19 in Gray’s starts…….he had an effective playoff start & had to pick-off a guy at 2nd to end an inning/rally in that one. Other playoff start was subpar. Gotta be real about what his contribution really was and not just be enamored with his ERA & competitive nature. I get his wins/losses were run support related at times………bottom line is he didn’t shine in the playoffs & Louie Varland can be a .500 pitcher!!
  20. JD-TWINS
    Who trades a #2 or #3 starter w/o some very attractive pieces in return? We traded a batting champ for Lopez (essentially Miami’s #3 guy long-term). So we need to kick up some high end prospects or forget it - nothing’s free. The only starting pitchers that might be traded that have that kind of ability are one year rentals. I don’t like this as we need to give up too much with high end risk due to just one season. Burnes & Glasnow, even if we committed the trade capital, cost $14-$15M & $25M this year & then they’ll walk. If the Brewers want to re-tool (trading Burnes, maybe Adammes, & Woodruff is hurt) they may follow through with what was put in print a month ago, & field offers for Devin Williams? If we commit to the proper package we can have him in 55 - 60 games affecting the outcome - 2 years - $6.25M in ‘24. Our Pen is elite! If we trade Polanco, $$ are available for a middling FA like Lugo for the rotation & our depth is golden.
  21. JD-TWINS
    Buxton - under 70 games per year over 9 years………absolutely no reason to think he’ll play near a 100 games in CF…….he’s done that once in his previous 9 years. I don’t get the reluctance of many on Castro’s ability to play CF every day. He hit .257 last year in 358 AB’s. IMO, he can either play CF or he can’t………makes no sense that he. a play CF only 50 games well……..the critique has to be offensive consistency based - right? If Gordon didn’t get hurt last year he would have been penciled in for 80 or more games v. RH pitching. Now here’s a wildcard for offensive consistency! Gotta see what they think about his bat in Spring Training. Between Buxton (35 games) - Castro (75 games) - Gordon (30 games) - Martin (20 games)……….some combination like this w/o leaning on Buxton too much potentially keeps him healthy for playoffs. Gordon may not be involved? If he is and has some success, Martin might not be involved? I just don’t like spending $$$ on some OK veteran FA and displacing guys we have rostered and can afford. Definitely don’t need to waste trade capital for some other team’s young outfielders with no pedigree producing in the Show ………we have those types of players with nice potential in St. Paul.
  22. JD-TWINS
    Theoretically, v. LH starter: Vazquez - C Jeffers - DH Castro - Buxton - Kepler in OF Lewis - CC - Farmer - Kirilloff in IF ……7 RH bats should be enough.
  23. JD-TWINS
    Agreed, Buxton is maybe 40 games in OF if things go well and Martin will take until June/July to try out. Castro can fill in for some months - maybe Gordon helps if he hits OK in Spring Training? Gotta focus on trading Polanco and hang on to Max! Potentially, could trade Kepler in offseason if they plan on signing someone like Duvall OR if they think Lee is ready sooner than expected and Lewis could go to LF possibly. I don’t exchange Max for a different veteran OF……only if someone out of the system pushes him out mid-summer……doubt that happens.
  24. JD-TWINS
    Maeda - Mahle - Gallo - Solano - Taylor - Gray is about $44M…….these guys are all gone. Arbitration guys probably are an additional $6M over last year. $154M less $44M plus $6M = $116M total …… Twins are certainly within a couple million either way. They need to move Polanco and it frees up $20 - $24M to spend and stay at $130M or less. A typical year to year payroll increase is 5-10%……at $130M we have a 16% reduction from ‘23. That has to work for ownership!
  25. JD-TWINS
    I would prefer the former but I don’t know what team is trading any pitcher that’s established, that we can afford, UNLESS they only have one year of control left. That’s not a good move for Twins. A FA could be experienced with two or more years of commitment. Lugo is a guy that I think gives us quality & affordability. We can then trade for Option B above if we want to shed salary for value. My broken record is making the Pen elite via trade with Brewers, we move 3-4 players or prospects, as needed, to secure Devin Williams for 2 years - $6.25M salary this year. Winder - Alcala - Thielbar - Funderburk - Jax - Stewart - Williams - Duran would be formidable. Varland is committed as 5th/6th starter and trade pressure for a starter is greatly reduced.
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