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JD-TWINS

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  1. JD-TWINS
    So, IMO, everyone through the first 10 comments is shooting too high. (I doubt many teams have an average of 2 guys that play 140 games/year) Buxton has averaged less than 70 games per year over 9 seasons. This is the history of his TWENTIES! If he can play 120 games, that’s 1.5 game days off per week, and obviously all the travel days off as well - that would be a great high end goal. (1 day off week one - 2 days off week two & so on) 30-40 games in CF and 80-90 games at DH. Buxton’s complaints about DHing are due to frustration to not be able to help the team if he’s not hitting - suck it up and deal with it - need to contribute at the plate, principally! He didn’t perform well last year at DH because he was hurt essentially all year. Nobody hits well without their legs under them. He had 17 HR & 17 doubles in 86 games (a few of those were games as a pinch hitter) and he was hurt. He hits 25 of each easily in 110-120 games, if generally healthy. Twins have plenty of options to catch fly balls in CF - maybe not as exciting but “exciting” doesn’t get the club into the playoffs. They need Buxton healthy and available to play wherever needed in October!
  2. JD-TWINS
    It’s all about trying to be efficient - K’s are up everywhere in baseball & have been for years and nearly in every instance, power guys strike out much more. The Twins problem in ‘23 was an imbalance in HR’s per K with certain individuals. OBP .301 - Gallo - 21 HR - 142 K’s - 6.76K per HR .369 - Jeffers - 14 HR - 93 K’s - 6.64K per HR .370 - Wallner - 14 HR - 80 K’s - 5.72K per HR .280 - Vazquez - 6 HR - 82 K’s - 13.66K per HR .381 - Julien - 16 HR - 128 K’s - 8.00K per HR .332 - Kepler - 24 HR - 106 K’s - 4.42 per HR .335 - Polanco - 14 HR - 88 K’s - 6.29 per HR .294 - Buxton - 17 HR - 108 K’s - 6.41 per HR .312 - Correa - 18 HR - 131 K’s - 7.28 per HR .278 - Taylor - 21 HR - 130 K’s - 6.19 per HR .372 - Lewis - 15 HR - 55 K’s - 3.67 per HR .369 - Solano - 5 HR - 100 K’s - 20.00 per HR .339 - Castro - 9 HR - 99 K’s - 10.00 per HR .348 - Kirilloff - 11 HR - 80 K’s - 7.27 per HR .317 - Farmer - 11 HR - 86 K’s - 7.82 per HR Threshold (the floor) for these levels are arbitrary……I think a minimum acceptable level for a good player is an OBP of .330. With no defense involved, it’s interesting that it seems Taylor, despite 21 HR should not be pursued at all! Obviously, Gallo should not be pursued. If there’s a possibility to move Vazquez, even at $3-$4M/yr cost he’s not someone to be carried on a roster, offensively. Farmer has reasonable strikeout/HR ratio & his defense keeps him in play. OBP is subpar. Correa needed 2-3 more HR & 10 more hits/walks and he would have had an acceptable regular season. Julien strikes out too much. His OBP saves him……his defense does not add to his value. Wallner is a bright spot in OBP & power! Lewis jumps off the page as a budding star!! Should not consider trading Kepler, even if he didn’t play sound defense!!! Solano has to be scrutinized due to zero power and limited defense. Inexpensive & solid OBP. Borderline. Castro’s defensive flexibility lifts him off the borderline status. Just a different view that picked up momentum as I went - interesting to ponder?
  3. JD-TWINS
    The commentary here reminds me of The Big Chill, when William Hurt chuckles to his friends after stirring a bunch of stuff up and says, “just trying to keep the conversation lively.” Aquire 2 or 3 starters. - trade for a starter but don’t give up on any youth - get a right handed bat (Hoskins maybe, probably too expensive)…..,.,,.(Soler would be good though) bad news is Soler probably costs more than Hoskins and all he does is DH, which we have no need for with our 3-4 potential DH candidates…….nobody else in the game wants to pay Vazquez $20M for next two years either……if we send $8M in cash along with him, he may be able to be moved. Does it make sense to trade the 4th best defensive catcher in the AL? What if Jeffers breaks another finger? That said, if we can move Vazquez - OK. Our internal options for line-up are fine as of today……….am assuming Polanco gets traded due to declining performance - declining availability - Twins need to decline the payroll. Pitching: No problem trying to trade for a “top end guy” but we have to give up prospects or controllable players! Julien - Winder - Sands - E. Rodríguez - Festa……….if that doesn’t work (relatively slim) then move to a solid reliever for tempered trade assets from Twins. I see your list of FA arms………for context on my choice for FA signing, I’ll add a couple stats for comparison sake. Luzardo #18 in ERA - 3.58……..our Pablo #23 in ERA - 3.66……..L. Gilbert, the Mariner stud, 25th in ERA - 3.73. FA - Mike Clevinger pitched a couple times at end of ‘22 after arm surgery…….threw 131 innings last season & went 9-9 with the lowly White Sox……..3.77 ERA. Sign him! If we can move Polanco & Vazquez, I’d forget Clevinger & make a run at J. Montgomery for $26M/year & 5 years. Make the last 2 years player option so he feels some power if his performance is high end.
  4. JD-TWINS
    I was really down on Miranda & had/have little confidence in a bounce back, HOWEVER, to be fair it seems he was hurt longer & more seriously than anyone realized (or I realized) last summer. I can’t protect Kirilloff here every week and not get behind giving Miranda a chance. Julien is not at his peak trade value! He’s at “the peak” of his career at 24 or 25, whatever he is. He’s getting better & will continue to get better to some ceiling, on defense. Let me throw out this scenario relative to value…….what if he’s hitting .275 & has an OBP of .360 going into July? He is then a proven MLB probable star ……….Martin &/or Lee are ripping the cover off the ball for two months. We have an opportunity to bring up one or both guys that can play infield & trade Julien to a more desperate club in a race, NEW peak! Does anyone really think he’ll be hitting sub .250 with an OBP of less than .330 by July? If not we didn’t screw up by keeping him. I don’t have a problem moving the guy with the potential we have coming & the depth we currently have at 2B. Saying he’s at his peak trade value to rationalize trading him is a real stretch.
  5. JD-TWINS
    I’m not trading with Guardians - Mariners - Blue Jays any veteran guys with potential upside that could bite us in the rear in the near-term playoffs. Kepler - Polanco aren’t going to up & coming league rivals if I run the organization. Prospects - OK.
  6. JD-TWINS
    Seems like an out of shape Michael Pineda……if all that’s wrong with him is bad shoulder, the Jays would have done all they could to get him healthy! Gotta think there’s an attitude issue or a lack of motivation to be in shape…..why else would an organization take a youthful Cy Young candidate and treat him with little respect - has to be a two way street. If he can fit in as a personality, they’re going to give him more opportunities!
  7. JD-TWINS
    Let’s make Ely more comfortable! A couple 2023 ERA’s here to digest: Luzardo #18 - 3.58……..our P. López #23 - 3.66 ……..Seattle trade target L. Gilbert #25 - 3.73 Mike Clevinger - 131 innings - 3.77 ERA …..this should be the TWINS target for a 2 year deal!
  8. JD-TWINS
    I was hoping these 5 guys would get just Luzardo - he’s worth it for 3 seasons!
  9. JD-TWINS
    A big Montgomery proponent here!! As of today, I think Mike Clevinger may be a good value? He came off arm surgery re-hab in late ‘22 with San Diego & looked OK. In ‘23 he played on a poor White Sox club & went 9-9 in 131 innings with a 3.77 ERA. He’s got good stuff and is probably a low teens guy ($13M/year) that could supplement what we lost in rotation along with Paddack & Varland.
  10. JD-TWINS
    Ditto!
  11. JD-TWINS
    You played baseball? No stress difference on knee joints between SS & 2B. Throwing across your body on balls you are charging from 3B and throwing after you dive to the line to stop a ball behind 3B are tremendous strains on your knee joints. Have had my knee scoped twice and then ligament rebuild. Hip replacement as well. I get joint stress. The 2nd baseman is protected from contact on plays at 2nd base. Twins have already eluded to the fact that 3B is Lee’s probable fit. Lewis can play 2B or LF or even 1B as far as I’m concerned. Lee & Lewis need to be in the line-up together somehow.
  12. JD-TWINS
    #2 & #3 are intriguing. As usual, I would try to change something …….#2 to (keep Kepler - insert Vazquez + $6M cash considerations)………Miami gets veteran catcher help at a reduced cost of $7M/year for 2 years. Julien is a real bat for them! Rodriguez is everyday OF by ‘25 or sooner. #3 is reasonable, but keeping Vazquez as at least a 50% of the Twins innings caught for a couple more years is not optimal. Gotta do things to get better than good pitching though. .………………. As a wild edit……throw some of these trade assets, i.e. Rodríguez - maybe Festa - Gordon - Polanco (for them to flip) to the “reworking” Brewers for 2 years of Devin Williams control and our Pen is firmed up for 2 years w/o any guess work…….$6.25M/year. The balance of $$ in budget to spend on FA Mike Clevinger for depth guy at $12.5M/year for 2 years. He threw 131 innings and had a 3.77 ERA in ‘23. LUZARDO would be the preference & hope FO can make it happen.
  13. JD-TWINS
    Not sure other organizations think a guy that was top 5 OBP in the game in ‘23 (Julien) along with E. Rodríguez is not a satisfactory return? Toss in Gordon as a depth piece that’s cheap & an arm like Sands/Winder to eat some bullpen innings. They seem to be in a win soon mode & Jenkins is at least a ‘26 arrival on a fast track.
  14. JD-TWINS
    I like the premise for sure. To get it done I probably bump it by $10M by giving him $2M more per year over the first 5 years…….Boras & Co. like present value of money as well & they are certainly aware of Lewis’ health issues to date……I think, as his management, they would approve. He’s a real talent & getting him under control at known cost is very valuable for the Twins!
  15. JD-TWINS
    Don’t. Nobody says this can’t be ‘25 or more realistically, ‘26 line-up………….the premise was “what’s the ‘27 line-up look like?”
  16. JD-TWINS
    A big difference, that I realize was only an example, is Juan Soto had a broad market - he can play (arguably top 5 at 25 & under in the game) & he’s in the line-up most days. If Buxton plays well enough for a team to have interest, he’s inexpensive as a Twin & he stays. If he doesn’t play well there’s no market & he stays. Again, the Twins are on the hook with him for good or bad.
  17. JD-TWINS
    Burnes is a one year move & not very attractive. Sox won’t trade Cease to Division foe & it would be weird to send them anyone decent as well. Farmer is a keeper as you elude to above. Kepler & Polanco need to be hooked with a couple others from the organization to make any return Twins would get worthwhile. How about a guy with some risk (all have risk) that could be picked up as a FA for 2 years and maybe $11-$13M……..make the 2nd year his option. Mike Clevinger - 9W - 9L with a bad White Sox team in 2023 - 131 innings pitched and a 3.77 ERA……..between him & Paddack & Varland we should be able to cover the lost starters innings with effective arms!
  18. JD-TWINS
    Not sure about how to dive into the analytics but I do recall in September seeing Farmer was better than either Julien or Polanco at 2B in ‘23. I think he was a slight plus & Julien was neutral & Polanco was slightly subpar. I see the Sox reluctance because of his last couple years of a lack of durability! What would we get in return is my real question?
  19. JD-TWINS
    It’s been pretty widely discussed here that Lee’s tools translate at 3B better than Lewis. CC isn’t going anywhere as you state. Seems Lewis at 2B to replace an inferior defender makes sense. I don’t see any transition though until they get a longer look at Lee in St Paul & a longer look at Julien in the Show. Maybe late summer? Seems it’s either Lewis to 2B by start of ‘25 or he shifts to LF & Wallner goes to RF. I don’t think trying to trade Polanco as a stand alone asset is going to bring a great return but him, with Winder, and a good prospect from AAA level may do the trick. Club needs pitching & money to allow that to happen. Gotta move Jorge…………or trade Julien in his spot and get a lower cost arm in trade…….no sense in having these two guys on the roster together other than to hedge against Polanco’s fragile physical state & probable injury.
  20. JD-TWINS
    They’ll release him before he gets traded.
  21. JD-TWINS
    I don’t understand any level of reality in Buxton playing in CF 4 seasons from now? Most everyone doubts he’ll play CF in ‘24 let alone projecting he’ll be there in ‘27. Seemed Jenkins was drafted due to the speed-arm components of his probable 5 tools (I get he’s young & not completely developed) so I’m hoping he’s in CF out of Spring Training in ‘26. Not sure why we should think he won’t be there ultimately?
  22. JD-TWINS
    I like the Funderburk slant & his probable importance/role in the Pen. I live in Cincinnati so I’m always contrasting the successes & lack of for both clubs. Hope Bobby enjoys some more Twins success in ‘24!
  23. JD-TWINS
    He was hurt - didn’t even play at all in August/Septmber. The “he’s gotta play CF or no value…….” is bologna. We need his bat! Michael Taylor - Castro - Martin - Gordon can all catch fly balls and run stuff down in the gaps well enough for the Team to win. If he can play 30-40 games in CF I’ll be pleasantly surprised! The guy has averaged less than 70 games per season for 9 years!! If he doesn’t DH as his major role, he’s worthless.
  24. JD-TWINS
    I get the media plays up the home town stuff. Maybe real? With a number of good arms in Seattle and a REAL NEED for position player depth, signing a guy who is broken down quite a bit is not good spending. They are in the midst of paying Ray for being unavailable for 18 months. Doubt they have the stomach for it…………what’s a hometown contract” valued at by Snell?……$25M at the discount? Seems unlikely to me.
  25. JD-TWINS
    I agree Julien deserves a chance to get better over time at 2B. Having him play 2B & Polanco play 1B is two guys “working it out” during games and doesn’t seem to spell winning club. Praying for Buxton to play 150 games when his 9 year history is averaging less than 70 games per year is something from a dream. Polanco .235 BA in 108 games in ‘22 & .256 BA in ‘23 in 86 games…………..career BA of .270. He’s unavailable and regressing - acting like he’s more durable than Kirilloff isn’t reality. The only way Buxton approaches 125 games is if he DH’s 80 games.
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