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JD-TWINS

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Everything posted by JD-TWINS

  1. JD-TWINS
    Not sure how, when roughly 75% of pitchers are right handed, having Wallner & Kepler in the corner outfield spots is redundant. If Lee comes up by year’s end & Julien locks down 2B, maybe Lewis moves to LF by next Spring & Wallner shifts to right? If we add an OF bat, then they become redundant but not prior. Agreed, Paddack has a chance to be special after seeing his performance in September/October.
  2. JD-TWINS
    Understand the angst! This isn’t a list of our best players or highest contributors in ‘24……………With that in mind - years of control - cost today and over years of control - obviously, ABILITY - age - etc. are all blended to try and come up with overall value.
  3. JD-TWINS
    I like his value in the fact that he influences the games played toward Wins 55-60 times per year. That works!
  4. JD-TWINS
    I gotta agree - Hawkins sense of humor comes through……..Smalley seems worn out - my biggest issue is that it sounds like he’s not miked up for about 60% of what he says. I like Roy but maybe, at approximately 72, he should hang up the booth duties?
  5. JD-TWINS
    List seems reasonable again today. The fact that Raya is #13 really speaks to the inflated value prospects carry until they fail. Festa - Kirilloff - Varland - Paddack could all be, arguably, ahead of Raya. Gotta make choices though, so it’s all in the eye of the beholder. Duran having dropped 3 spots after being at #8 last year is pretty surprising. Hopefully, that means we got better with our top end depth. We’ll see how the list concludes but I would think it’s hard to argue he isn’t one of our top 6-7 assets if looking to move him.
  6. JD-TWINS
    After seeing the attitude & velocity in a few outings out of the Pen in ‘23, am very bullish on Paddack! Not really worried about how he ranks here - Twins have him under control for 2 years at a good $$ number. I’d be happy if he started games until the All-star break & then moved to the Pen. Not very likely but it is a specific way to limit innings and getting him to help us win games. Hopefully, by mid July team will have a couple other options for some spot starts in the 2nd half. Handful of notable guys have come back from 2nd Tommy John - just as many have busted out of baseball. deGrom & Beuhler will be a couple other guys everyone will be scrutinizing. Will be interesting.
  7. JD-TWINS
    “Farm guys” in the Top 20 that haven’t been unveiled, that is my meaning.
  8. JD-TWINS
    List seems very reasonable to start……..waiting to see if there are any other Farm System guys other than Lee & Jenkins. Maybe Rodríguez?………..are any prospects available for trading capital?
  9. JD-TWINS
    4 years isn’t 9 years……..TBD but not great so far, agreed!
  10. JD-TWINS
    A aside: For some Fandom emotion stirring early in the year………the Twins are posted in the first MLB Power Rankings as 17th. Wow!! Cubs - Padres - Brewers - Mariners - all seeded ahead of Twins. Lopez is a potential Cy Young guy going into ‘24. Duran is arguably the closer with best stuff in the game. Julien - Lewis - Kirilloff - Jeffers - Correa - Wallner - Ober - Ryan as a big part of the core……..do not understand the, IMO, major slight! 11 people combined on these rankings.
  11. JD-TWINS
    Not a chance for those 2 guys! Luzardo is a top 20 pitcher going into ‘24. He’s the guy I coveted for Arraez last year (no complaints with Pablo!). Polanco - Larnach (float Kepler) - Festa - Winder or Sands - maybe another prospect of their choice? ……..any 26 man guys & Lee & Jenkins are staying put…….maybe add Vazquez + $3.5M/year? Add Larnach & his upside to a corner spot with Marlins along with Polanco at 2B……..Jazz in CF - Bell at 1B - Arraez as DH ….can rotate Bell, Arraez, & Polanco between those 3 spots. For Luzardo, if Marlins want to spend the $$, I would roll the dice & trade ………… Kepler/Polanco/Festa/Winder/………another prospect……..maybe E. Rodriguez would be more attractive for corner OF spot than Larnach or Kepler? Focus on Luzardo & do whatever is necessary, IMO.
  12. JD-TWINS
    Jorge Polanco had a WAR in ‘23 of 2.0……he only played 80 games. Stanton is cited as having a high “WAR of 3.70 just 3 years ago…….” we already have him for $10.5M on the roster. A guy with potential that’s hurt all the time…….Polanco. Oh, I almost forgot about Byron…………Stanton has to be the worst contract in Baseball! Comical thought though. Alcantara coming off a poor year & not available for ‘24 due to surgery & potentially not being the same when he comes back all sounds like he should be almost free…….not a real attraction to pay much for the ability to display a ‘22 Cy Young trophy. Steer was voted the Reds MVP in ‘23 - with McClean healthy & DeLaCruz & E. - Strand with some experience they are on their way to the Central title. I live in Cincinnati & they could/would trade Petty but they don’t have ANY every day player position holes to fill - Zero!
  13. JD-TWINS
    Off the rails here but how about a dominant Left Hander?😉
  14. JD-TWINS
    Depth & availability ……Polanco, 104 games in ‘22 & 80 games in ‘23. Career .270 hitter - hit .235 in ‘22 & .255 in ‘23. Less of a defender than Farmer at 2B & 3B. IMO, Farmer is the depth answer with some combination of Martin & Lee as the season progresses. Polanco, (not considered a bag of balls, but regressing) bundled with a couple other guys may get us an arm of consequence……again, to me, that is the depth that is needed.
  15. JD-TWINS
    All very possible…….probable on some level. Jeffers playing more may/will lead to fatigue & pitcher’s respecting him more will lead to more difficulty at the plate. Stewart was hard to believe in ‘23 & has set a very high bar. Kepler is just a flat out wildcard - am hoping that his previous year’s issues were between his ears and he’s corralled those issues?? Castro, I think, just got better and more comfortable at the plate. He’s relatively young & a very good athlete - hoping his offensive drop is slight. Regression or a drop in performance could happen to just about the entire roster for differing reasons…….trying to stay upbeat for ‘24.
  16. JD-TWINS
    Brewers or Marlins…….aim high! Brewers: Lost Woodruff to injury & FA…….traded Hauser……….going to trade Burnes by the deadline at the latest. They are rebuilding (even if they aren’t telling the fans) and want young controllable pieces that don’t cost anything. Along with this, Polanco helps keep them competitive for the fans sake over ‘24 & ‘25. Polanco - Larnach - Festa - Sands from Twins to attain Devin Williams. Larnach has OF upside & can DH at low cost……Festa provides long-term upside. Williams is an All-star under control for 2 years & he makes our Pen elite at a cost of $6.25M in ‘24. Marlins: They need offense and we can offer the same upside with Larnach…….steadying, consistent bat and versatile defender with Polanco………immediate relief plug-in with Sands ……….future upside arm with Festa. These guys for Luzardo. He’s got 3 years left and is electric with stuff. IF needed, we dig deeper on prospects with E. Rodríguez to allow them some flexibility with how they use Jazz. Moving Polanco for value is going to take a few other guys.
  17. JD-TWINS
    As another commenter stated … Miranda needs to hit his way back to the Show. Can’t roster him on 26 man & hope! Martin as a 1B option doesn’t add up……..have the option in hand v. seeking it when Miranda isn’t performing. 22% K rate and tons of experience and played 1B just fine in ‘23. Twins don’t need him to play 2-3 positions. Pinch hit - 1B - DH a little and we’re good.
  18. JD-TWINS
    Call someone that wants a cheap bat that can DH & play 3 other spots if needed……mix with another guy & make a trade.
  19. JD-TWINS
    I agree……to my knowledge, the best Twins Team other than the 3 World Series clubs. The Orioles were solid & deep everywhere. This team’s 98 wins without Carew for 100 plus games shows how good they were. Carew, when in the line-up for 51 games, hit .366 with an OPS+ over 150. If he’s available, Baltimore may have been on more of an even level?
  20. JD-TWINS
    Reasonable thought! Not sure why there isn’t a specific number shown here - speculation, understood, but at least some point of reference. My guess is $3.25M maximum. For that amount of money, it’s a worthwhile depth move. Twins don’t know for sure what Kirilloff’s timetable will be to perform at 100%. Everyone anticipates he’ll be fine - hope so. Twins don’t know for sure if/when Miranda will be able to hit at MLB level again. Everyone anticipates he’ll be OK with good health - hope so. With these two guys BOTH targeted for 1B & with mild question marks with each, the Twins could use a mix of performance - continuity - experience that Donny B. would provide. At that number, if Miranda is crushing it in Spring Training, it’s probable Twins can move Solano with somebody else to provide depth to another club that had experienced an injury in Spring Training. Worth a shot to ensure that the season isn’t kicked off short-handed.
  21. JD-TWINS
    Big chasm between MVP & productive……he’s averaged less than 70 games per year over 9 years…….granted, slightly higher w/o Covid year. Bottom line is he is a highly talented athlete that is relatively fragile - not that unusual. I’d like to shoot for 110-120 games. Bigger, #1 ask is to be healthy for October!! Start 30-40 games in OF (1 or 2 times per week) & DH 75 games & Pinch hit 5 games. That would be a VERY productive season for Buxton. That’s 75% of all games in ‘24 when his average has been under 50% his first 9 years. .230 BA would be ask #2. If he can do that he’ll stumble into 25 HR & 25 doubles & strike out less. He had 17 of each XBH in 80 starts in ‘23…….he wasn’t healthy in ‘23 either while hitting the 17 HR & 17 doubles. Honestly, don’t care if the plan is to steal ZERO bases to maintain best health. The “play hard til you drop” mentality/mantra makes no sense to me. We have plenty of options to catch fly balls in CF - we need the BAT PORTION of his $15M salary maintained through the year. He didn’t perform as a DH to his, or fan’s expectations in ‘23, because he was hurt most of the time ……..not because “he can’t hit as a DH”…,.,,that’s ridiculous!
  22. JD-TWINS
    Forgot about displacing Taylor’s K’s - that’s a welcome change even though we step back defensively a bit. I like Castro’s odds of being pretty good in CF given steady opportunity …….fast, good arm, very athletic overall & a real solution. Anyway, my thought was to kill two birds with a few stones in a trade. Hopefully, SOONER THAN LATER. Help the staff/Pen both for under $20M. Trade the stones for Devin Williams of the Brewers. They are going to step back and move Burnes at some point - Woodruff is gone. They are rebuilding with youth no matter how they portray the short-term to their fans. They always want to get cheap controllable pieces. We send them 3-4 guys for 2 years of Williams starting at $6.25M in ‘24. Any package we may give up for one year of Burnes is worth 2 years of Williams………then sign Clevinger to fix our rotation depth. $13.5M/yr. for two years with a player option for 2nd year, so if he is tremendous and wants to test the market he can. 131 innings & 3.77 ERA in ‘23. Rotation fixed - Pen is elite ………$ to afford both by trading Polanco.
  23. JD-TWINS
    One can disagree with certain players getting a slight advantage due to reputation/years of experience/etc. - it’s real and has been for 100 years (i.e. Maddux - Glavine - many hitters). Not right, but real. Bottom line is he was a rookie and after striking out looking a half dozen times, one needs to adjust - I realize he may have had an argument or was correct a few times. Walking back to the dugout shaking your head is not the answer. Gotta protect the plate with two strikes - one of oldest adages in Baseball.
  24. JD-TWINS
    Agreed, don’t see the value of adding France & frankly, doubt Seattle is trading him at an affordable $7.2M. Twins don’t save much in Salary either for what you & many would consider a lesser player than Polanco. That said Polanco is declining over a fairly long stretch……..might he bounce back, maybe? ’22 - .235 BA & 108 games ’23 - .256 BA & 86 games Career .270 BA ………..batting efficiency is dropping and his availability/reliability has certainly dropped significantly. He’s not at Buxton’s level of IL time but we can move him before it gets worse (can’t move Buxton) & we can re-coup $$ to spend on pitching. I think he’s probably moved to allow Julien a starting spot for 120 games……….Buxton will again clog the DH spot for 50% of the games.
  25. JD-TWINS
    Agree on the left side & right side defense. Hope CF works out. I think it is covered with existing, rostered options. K% will go down w/o Gallo & an improvement by Buxton ……..gotta say it bothers me to see Julien strike out looking as much as he does - no stats, but seems like about 1 of 4 are looking? Walking is a great tool but with 2 strikes one needs to protect the plate on some level - he comes off like he thinks he’s earned Ted Williams status. Steals are a nice add but we can’t manufacture speed out of a mostly set line-up. Seems it will fall to Lewis - Castro …..maybe Wallner & Kepler sprinkling some in here & there………Buxton’s ability to contribute will depend, as usual, upon his health.
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