JD-TWINS

I struggle with the “……..Julien will be playing a bunch of 1B this year” from above. I get he said this, but don’t see the value in displacing Kirilloff with him……2023 comparison here Eddy J: 338 AB’s - 33 XBH - .263BA - 130 OPS+ Alex K: 281 AB’s - 26 XBH - .270BA - 117 OPS+ Kirilloff wasn’t that much different than Julien if % of playing time is factored - Kirilloff wasn’t healthy at times as well. Health needs to happen soon or they can’t roster him! Better 1B defender v. Julien. Julien’s OBP was about 45 points higher….. reflected in OPS+. Need BOTH in line-up! Gordon, had a terrible April in ‘23 and was coming around with a handful of XBH in his last 2-3 weeks. He was out after May 16 - much more than just the 2nd half. He hit .272 in 405 AB’s in ‘22 & started 43 games in CF. He had a 111 OPS+ in ‘22 with 9 HR & 28 doubles. Decent play in CF. Project the 405 AB’s over a 600 AB season & he hits 14-15HR with 40 plus doubles & 6 triples………just saying, his ‘22 was very good for a guy that had to play 3 different positions through the year ……….started filling in for Polanco - then platooned in LF - then played a bunch in CF. He’s gotta prove he can hit - for sure. W/o options, it seems he gets the nod over Martin out of camp. Larnach can’t play CF, so he’s got to really hit in Spring Training or he’s out in April as well……….. March 30 roster here?? Wallner - Buxton/Castro - Kepler (Gordon) Lewis - CC - Julien/Farmer - Kirilloff (Miranda) 2 catchers………. = 13 Larnach & Martin fill in OF spots as needed with options…….only way I see Polanco staying and fitting in is as DH - 2B - 1B (20% - 20% - 30% respectively & then no Miranda).

Just an opinion - gotta be top 4 in the game…..best stuff, just needs to master the situation/mental aspects.

Gotta say it, why would Houston consider trading Valdez?…….they are obviously in “Win Now” mode with Bregman - Tucker - etc. getting to end of control………just signed Hader for 5 years. Agree with you - Luzardo would be #1 for me due to the fact that he has 3 years of team control left & we aren’t making an AL foe better. A close #2 for me would be a trade for a guy with 2 years of control in NL league as well. Devin Williams of Milwaukee could be had & would make our Pen elite - particularly in the playoffs!! Through the regular season he’s primarily a set-up guy that can close whenever Duran isn’t available……he can affect 55 games per year at a minimum. 2 years of him at $7.25M would be a great value. Clevinger signing from FA market would be simple…….a worthwhile 3rd option.

Not trading assets & going into the playoffs with Lopez - Ryan - Ober is just fine with me as well……… Paddack & Varland available for 2-3 innings as early as the 4th in any of the 3 starts seems like a fine alternative to a lofty priced “#2”……..keeping productive, low cost assets, makes perfect sense! I do think moving some salary via trade, to enable the Team to sign a guy like Clevinger, is even a better alternative. BTW, I live in Cinti & watched Steer shine nearly all year - voted their MVP in ‘23……..he’s the RH hitting prototype LF everyone wants to spend $$$ on to fill our supposed void.

“…….a Champagne problem.” That says it all! If he works out as a starter, great. If not, he’s got Griffin Jax type value in the Pen. I like getting a depth arm (starter) and having Varland as a 10 start (spot starter) guy to provide some rest for the top 5 guys………seems unless he really breaks through as a starter over a number of starts, he will be in the Pen to contribute from September 15 til eliminated. An advantage of spot starts in the Show and AAA until September, is that the playoff clubs won’t have seen him firsthand much at all!

At this point, Wallner seems to be a future lock in RF……….I keep thinking Rodriguez is the prospect that gets traded as we obtain pitching……..this seems logical due to the depth of Jenkins behind him by 1 year. Lee slots in at 3B & Julien at 2B going forward? Really think Lewis moves to LF by ‘25. We’ll see…….everything I’ve seen seems to point to Lee as the better 3B choice - CC isn’t going anywhere - Julien is pretty valuable at 2B - seems the athletic Lewis would be best for a move elsewhere so everyone’s bat can get in the line-up. Maybe Lewis to 1B & Kirilloff to LF is the best solution for ‘25?…………Jenkins at High A & then AA in ‘24…….AA & AAA in ‘25 with a possible look in September if the club needs an infusion - seems like a possible path. Let’s get ‘24 right first!

I think they got Shelby Miller as well as a FA……they also lost/traded Lorenzen at the break so he’s probably a 1.0 - 1.5WAR or better at end of July……….hopefully, they are done and we make a move or two?

Completely agree on the pitching……it seems the National Pundits only focus on the adds of Maeda & Flaherty but nobody mentions the trade of Lorenzen & the bigger loss of Rodriguez in free agency. IMO, they lose in that exchange of guys. Shelby Miller & Chafin are experienced Pen arms but getting on in their careers……nothing dominant. Their hitters are coming and it seems if they can get near .500 they may spend some of those available $$ on another guy at the deadline………Baez is a big wildcard for them & probably a reminder of why they should build with youth. Cleveland & their pitching, aside of Bieber is always an issue. Losing Tito will have some effect in our favor, I think. K.C. has made some nice pitching moves with the Texas trade last year and the other 3 FA pitchers signed…….much better than running Grienke out there every 5th day. Witt is a star! Should be fun to watch!

Agree on the opening day roster at this point! Depth is huge & kudos to the FO for the job well done in ‘23! Don’t dislike nor disrespect Polanco. Don’t see room for him on the roster with the other options available. Not you, but many just state we “should keep him” - which is fine - but they think all the rest of the guys they like should be on the roster as well. People suggest he should “just play 1B” or Julien “should just play 1B”. They both displace Kirilloff, who still has a pretty decent upside IMO…… 13 spots and need to make decisions on the roster. Julien & Castro will be rostered. Farmer seems to be the alternative to Julien at this point. Gordon has no more options (could be traded or maybe more likely, released?) Lee/Lewis is probably not happening this season but possible later in the summer as more depth. Martin’s ability (on paper) to play CF & IF is attractive as well if he hits at all. All stuff above that’s obvious - I am just calling for a decision path with those guys……..seems Jorge’s cost pushes him closer to the odd man out. Patience as you say!! Polanco, straight up, without some prospects will not net Twins a solution for any of their needs…….assuming most see this as real?

Arraez - most of 3 seasons and a batting title………Lewis - 70 games over 2 seasons……makes sense Luis got more thumbs up. To me, Lewis is a potential big time star…….trading him seems like something they just can’t do. Polanco for any starting pitcher with upside is a WIN. He played 108 games & 80 games the past 2 seasons…….not sure what that has to do with Mookie Betts move to 2B? It’s difficult to know but there are often, signs. Julien - Farmer - Gordon - Martin - Castro - Lee/Lewis all able to play 2B is another sign that it’s time to move on from the $10.5M, IMO.

Rating or arguing our #10-#40 prospects in system now or ever is a really vague exercise………..most guys that work in baseball would tell you those guys are all big maybes in any system. There was no slant in my comments about Miami trading Chisholm. He had a step back offensively in CF…..maybe regressed to his norm? Anyway, I suggested they get Rodriguez from Twins as part of a deal and slot him in CF, allowing Chisholm to move back to a more comfortable position at 2B, as Rodriguez is ready. As stated, offering $3M of annual assistance for Vazquez in nearly any trade he’s involved with. Farmer is around $6.5M I believe? So that’s, say $14M for two skilled veterans. MLB average salary is a touch over $5M for ‘24…..educated guess, up from $4.9M in ‘23. So they get a couple of proven solutions for $4M more than league average. Doesn’t seem ridiculous. It seems to come down to “how soon” do they need to fill the spots? I don’t have a problem with Camargo……..no problem with Rodriguez …….no problem with Festa …………would prefer not moving Lee but nothing is free. Do they want somebody they know they can pencil into the line-up for sure, in January or do they want “upside”? I have great respect for the value Luzardo brings and understand Miami has the leverage!!

Now I’m confused, through my own fault of not following the Marlins situation closely enough. Author says they need a SS - a contributor says they have a guy named Berti that’s better than Farmer - you make a comment that they have a gaping hole at short. - ??? Also, I didn’t know Alcantara’s situation allows for control through ‘27. Thanks for that. I thought through ‘25……,,changes things! However, signing a guy that can’t help in ‘24 & costs $9M against ‘24 payroll is counter intuitive for sure. Could be a decent investment but it seems like a real stretch with $$ tight this year and for a club that’s ready to go deep in postseason. Seems Woodruff would cost less and lose zero assets in this type of approach …….assuming he’d be reasonable in ‘24($5M) if offered a 3 year deal in the high teens for year’s 2 & 3. I don’t see any scenario where we have enough trade assets to obtain both Luzardo & Alcantara……..(keeping Lewis/Jenkins) can’t see the latter being a salary reduction throw in. At some point it makes little sense to acquire Vazquez and then trade away 40-60% of that young pitching talent that needs molding. Would love Luzardo!! Getting Alcantara by himself as an investment makes sense but it seems they need to stabilize ‘24 staff first - right? Maybe rotation is what it is with current AAA depth?

Luzardo is target for sure. Twins could offer some $$ relief in a Vazquez portion of deal - $3M/yr? Seems Marlins need a ready guy with MLB seasoning if they have a hole. Best mutual option. They have 2 needs…….maybe it’s Camargo & they sign a FA like Cassilli for $2M for the catcher depth? Farmer is the stability and ready now guy for them……….We toss in E. Rodriguez and they can use him in CF at some point & get Chisholm back to 2B. Arraez goes to DH/1B rotation with Josh Bell……still playing a bit at 2B later & routinely, until Rodriguez is ready…….seems Festa would need to round out a deal or at least some pitching back to Miami? …………… I really like Lee at 3B long-term (no trades) & Julien at 2B with Lewis (due to athleticism & flexibility) becoming the RH power bat in LF &/or at 1B that they seem to need……probably a ‘25 move, but with Wallner then in RF it sure smoothes out the rough edges in line-up and $$ issues.

Making something happen to get Luzardo makes sense - can’t get that level guy for nothing, so if Lee is their desire at SS, Twins have to seriously consider! The Twins could offer some salary relief to help move Vazquez as part of the deal…..maybe $3m/year?Probably need to add another pitcher &/or prospect to make this happen. Farmer - Vazquez - Festa - E. Rodriguez ……with Vazquez salary relief would be a potential deal Marlins may consider. Alcantara is not worth the Twin’s efforts/$$$. No help (some cost) this year & then a “maybe” good year in ‘25 for $17.5M or near. We can’t afford to keep Farmer but we’d take on the same $$ or more this year to re-hab Alcantara? Doesn’t make sense.

What if Justin Morneau didn’t hit behind him - what if Johan Santana didn’t throw to him……,,gotta be thankful for the good times and good fortune!!! …….Congrats to a class act & super talent!

Don’t disagree - not sure how $$ could be determined or allocated? 34 years old and has to sit this year. Maybe a 2 year deal worth $5M paid out $1.5M & $3.5M?? Maybe $2M per year with some additional incentive $$ in the ‘25 season? Can’t imagine his market is very strong.

Not making ANY moves or sign anyone above a flyer reliever or minor league deals would be very disappointing!……..could be in Detroit though, where they traded Lorenzen at the deadline & let Rodriguez walk in FA……to replace them they “are adding” Flarhety & Maeda & are going to make a run at the Division……..the math doesn’t work - Pure fantasy.

Lewis & everyone else in the game needs health. How many strong athletic guys in baseball blow ACL’s twice, or then more? How many games would you predict he plays in ‘24?………..get out the crystal ball He played 127 games in 2019 with 519 AB’s…….ALL of baseball in Minors was off in 2020…….out with knee all of ‘21 - out nearly all of ‘22 with knee……..had a very respectable rookie season in Minneapolis in ‘23. Twins 2nd & 3rd highest paid players played 86 (at DH) & 80 games in ‘23…….player health is obviously an issue…….highest paid guy played through Plantar Fasciitis most of the year. In 58 games he had a 2.4 WAR. Do you think Lewis should be a real trade option?

Am glad he’s not around to speculate about any longer. Blah defender & would displace Kirilloff to get his value at $17M - can’t do that. Too expensive, for the performance difference, with the options Team has in front of them internally or with a more flexible guy like Turner. Seems the Brewers are going to try & make a run this year by signing him & giving Burnes another shot, at least until the deadline. I am holding out hope for the Twins/Brewers trade where Twins get Devin Williams. Maybe if they falter some, it’s doable at the deadline?

I want a photo of ALL 4 St. Paul guys on my basement wall……..hopefully, they get that done this summer and it’s available & it’s for sale. All 4 TWINS at one point! Winfield - Morris - Molitor - Mauer……(Paul might need some heels in that photo?) Congrats to Joe….1st ballot is BIG recognition.

25 in first full year of AAA doesn’t seem to make Martin “old” - right? If he’s an All-Star at 31, I’ll take it for sure!!

I’m all for trading for Devin Williams with 2 years of control at $7.25M …….tremendous improvement to Twins Pen!

Sounds great - not realistic. It’s like demanding 5 guys as good as Sandy Koufax as starters or else! All innings are important, obviously. Losing games in the late innings in which your team has spent 2 plus hours getting a lead, hurts your Win/Loss% but it can screw everyone up mentally and create a cloud for a day or 5. I appreciate the need for a solid Pen, agreed! 27 outs every day is the need, typically at a minimum. Winning 92 & losing 70 out of 162 isn’t a good record because it’s an easy game and we just need 8 “closers” to get it done.

Turner 1B for 45 games - 3B for 25 games - DH for 15 games - a bunch of PH opportunities…….go get him v. Hoskins!

Interesting thought. All roses for the Twins here, other than Castillo’s salary!! $24,150,000 per year for 4 years.………,..I love Castillo - I live in Cincinnati & was begging for Twins to shy away from Mahle & focus on Castillo a couple years ago. I don’t like filling holes in the Mariner line-up though with our everyday players. Also, this doesn’t seem practical or strategic in the sense that we could not trade any assets at all & sign Jordan Montgomery for an additional $2M per year, $26.2M/yr. Polanco’s salary would have to be moved but in some other deal. My thought is if we’re at $118-$120 now and have a ceiling in ‘24 of $130M plus a bit, we trade Polanco to get to a floor of $109M. Add Clevinger as a FA for 2 years at $15M/year. Trade Polanco - Festa - DeAndrade or whoever for Devin Williams at $7.25M/yr. of the Brewers for 2 years. Turang at 2B in Milwaukee isn’t the answer for them offensively. We move Polanco to NL & shift away from his salary. Those 2 guys add starter depth & make the Pen elite………for $22-23M/yr.