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PatPfund

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  1. PatPfund
    The Twins don't have the pitching depth to even worry about this. One of the top three is coming off a serious shoulder injury and likely has an innings limit. #4 hasn't approached anything like a healthy season since 2019. SWR had a solid rookie year, but showed signs of wearing down at the end. The only pitcher you list in AAA that looks MLB ready is Festa, and even if he starts there (as Ober did two years ago), I have no doubt he'll be in the MLB rotation quickly due to injury (Ryan/Paddack?) or regression (SWR?) as Ober was two years ago. Zebby clearly needs more work in the minors, and Raya has rarely pitched more than 5 innings as a pro. Plus, there is also evidence (there was a recent Athletic article about the Dodgers' potential six-man) that lots of pitchers pitch worse on an extra day's rest. So, yeah it is possible, but this team needs to pray for general health, and use its minor league "depth" to spot spell IP limited starters, (And hope some of the other AAA assets like Adams and Morris step up. If they don't, and/or something happens to Lopez or Ober, we might be blackly laughing at SP depth articles by mid-May.
  2. PatPfund
    Great article defining the different systems for calculations. Skipping to the nub of the recent series on the Pohlad series (or some basic deduction from the fact the Pohlads' main business is now downtown commercial real estate, and recent stories on how the bottom has dropped out of similar businesses), I think (emphasis on I) what matters to ownership right now is real dollars they have to spend now and this year, not when it was actually spent or how future/past spending accounts for this year. I think they want to keep the value of their for-sale asset as intact as they can (to maximize return) without adding costs they can't recover in a sale as extra value. That fits with the holding pattern of retaining their arbitration players, while adding nothing substantial. Strip the null words off the statements, and you get a strong sense "we can do this forever" while hoping internally they really, really don't have to.
  3. PatPfund
    Castro makes the most sense as a trade candidate (unless you make a deal for Larnach or Wallner), because his flexibility has broad appeal, his salary is big enough to matter to the Twins but not many other teams, and he actually had a good year last year so there is actually a chance to return value. Throw in Tonkin on the Milwaukee deal (they get a cheap serviceable MLB RP in addition to the everyday player, we open a guaranteed salary slot for the new guy in the 'pen.
  4. PatPfund
    Apropos of nothing, @tony&rodney, I adore your screen name. First Twins debate I ever had was with my brother over the best Twin (I was an Oliva guy, Michael a Carew backer; no wrong answers there).
  5. PatPfund
    Polemics aside (and there is a LOT of that here; interest rates are only "high" now if you ignore historic context and the fact they "soared" in the early '20's from zero aka free money, and money can't remain free without destroying the value of that money including the money that makes up retired worker pensions), the series essentially boils down to Carl was an unpleasant businessman, and (most importantly) even though his kids may not be as bad, the collapse of downtown real estate (see recent stories on Madison Equities in St Paul or the Strib's look yesterday at Mpls) is likely driving the sale of the Twins. There is likely need for some liquidity, or at least stability in the face of other (big) concerns. The last paragraph, though, is pure gold. That indeed is our system, except I'd add a third option to screaming or fighting, and that is to emotionally opt out. Ultimately sports are a diversion, and there are a LOT of diversions out there. (Enough baseball fans are opting out emotionally that the sport at some point may have a reckoning between nine-figure contracts, and shrinking popular interests, the same way real estate is dealing with big mortgages and shrinking occupancy rates.)
  6. PatPfund
    Until there is an end to the offseason there is always a potential path. One might be the team changing hands quickly, the new owners authorizing a payroll increase, and the Twins sign Flaherty and Santander, trade Julien and Vasquez for a solid LH relief arm, move Paddack to the bullpen as a power arm, and find out Buxton, Correa, Miranda, and Lewis all had great offseasons and report healthy and ready to go. I'd call that a great offseason. (And why issue "grades" even once Spring Training starts? Only the regular season will tell on so-called grades. Remember the ones that gave the Twins an A for trade deadline moves a couple years ago, and gave Chicago and Cleveland Fs? The same Chicago and Cleveland that blew past the Twins after "Failing" the trade deadline?)
  7. PatPfund
    So Gasper is older than Helman, plays worse defense at fewer positions, is shorter, and would be an underwhelmingly weak bat at 1B especially with RH hitting Miranda on the roster. If he is rated as better than Helman by the Twins, they are just stupid. Though both could probably be waived without getting claimed, and neither has shown they are MLB players yet. Cartaya isn’t a top prospect any more and was dumped for a lottery ticket for a reason; he can’t hit upper minors pitching. So Camargo isn’t getting waived (traded maybe but not waived); Cartaya has an option as well so he probably makes it through camp and gets sent down. I also don’t see them dumping the pitchers you mention, because they have upside and may get claimed. Tonkin, Funderburk, and Headrick are all fungible talents you could waive and have a decent chance of them not getting claimed, or just replace them with someone else if you need spots ahead of ST.
  8. PatPfund
    The more Ford and Gasper are on the active MLB roster, the worse this team is. Both are scrap heap material nearing expiration dates (they are 29 and 32 and both have career WARs under zero; aka they stink). Larnach is younger, vastly better, tall, a lefty bat, plays an OK OF, and can certainly learn the easiest defensive position on the field during Spring Training. And if Emmanuel Rodriguez pushes his way to the big leagues, and Julien struggles early, you have a space for Emma, a platoon match for Miranda, and you give the team flexibility to rotate their big bats through DH. And probably your most tradable asset, Castro, can be traded; maybe for the pitching help they need (like a steady eddie starter, or a good LH RP), or maybe to free up salary to add the help. That's the Larnach 1B stuff.
  9. PatPfund
    Being healthy is a fine start, so good to know the small sample size indicates a good outcome there. Be nice to know how many innings the starters went, though, because outside of Lopez and Ober I see potential IP limits all over the current #3-#7 SPs (including Ryan).
  10. PatPfund
    If they can move Vazquez's salary they will (might be easier than Paddack's given the injury history), but more likely might be a Castro trade (Martin could take that spot; a good left arm the target). They also should work Larnach out at 1B; his bat would put Gasper's and Ford's to shame, his athleticism and size gives him more defensive upside, and with Rodriguez on the cusp of MLB they will need to keep their best bats in the lineup when E arrives. Though fine for organizational depth, if the Twins play many games with Gasper or Ford on the big league roster, it will be a bad, bad omen on the team success front.
  11. PatPfund
    Mark Polishuk of MLB Trade Rumors seems confused by what 'lame duck' means (which is somebody serving in a position AFTER their eligibility for renewal is gone, or they have been terminated but remain on the job for a time). Rocco isn't a lame duck even if his contract is up at the end of next season, because he can be extended. Though, as the OP here aptly points out, he really hasn't earned an extension; two of the last three years have ended with an epic team collapse. Hopefully he knows he is managing for his job this year, because he really should be.
  12. PatPfund
    Miranda isn't a baseline; if healthy he is a major step up from any of these players, and on the upside of his career instead of the downside. If you sign a veteran, Rocco will play him despite all evidence the younger player is better; we don't need another Joey Gallo/Manuel Margot clogging the roster (or reviving the terrible idea of Lewis playing 2B, so Miranda can play, so a weak link can stand at first). And I like Wade, but I'm guessing his market never warms ups. A pop-less platoon weak defender with a slightly above average OPS+ isn't any team's dream for a critical offensive position.
  13. PatPfund
    Keaschall is not a pitcher, and so doesn't need the same recovery time. The surgery was delayed to give him maximum playing time last year, and then done on a schedule so that he would be fully recovered for Spring Training.
  14. PatPfund
    That isn't really a comfort since they make the actual decisions. Like the stupid decision to try Sano in the OF. Lewis would be one of the largest 2B in baseball and brings a history of serious knee injuries to a position that demands back-to-runner shiftiness and ruins knees (career-ending ruination) more than any other.
  15. PatPfund
    I don't see the glaring need for anyone on this list (other than Alonso who is more likely sign on Mars than here). Until he tweaked his back, Miranda wasn't just passable, he tied an all-time record for consecutive hits, and posted monthly 'sOPS+'s of 123, 110, 160, and 203. He's your 1B. Julien should get a shot at being the LH option, and Larnach should get work there. (If the Twins move Vasquez's or Paddack's contract, Castro plays a lot of LF, if not then Martin can play the position with flex for E-Rod's likely arrival at some point.) Going with Miranda as the primary 1B also undercuts the stupid idea of moving Royce Lewis to 2B (a position notorious for career-wrecking knee injuries). Brooks Lee, Julien, Castro, and Martin can cover the space, letting Lewis actually get (hopefully) healthy extended time at 3B. Keaschall may also be there by season's end.
  16. PatPfund
    I'd love to see Vasquez go back to Boston, both for him and for us. And, yeah, this third year at $10 million has turned painful, but in case people forgot, it is the only reason he signed here (the Twins were the only ones offering a third year), and Vasquez truly stabilized one of the weakest parts of our team. The guy is a pro's pro, has probably been key to keeping Jeffers healthy, and it is a bummer the collapse of the Twins' financial model (big loss in TV revenue, feeble post-pandemic attendance) has them scaling back. But that's where we are.
  17. PatPfund
    I get the need to add position players, but the Twins' so-called pitching depth is a myth when it comes to the rotation. Right now they'd start with Lopez, Ober, Ryan, SWR, and Paddack. Of those last three Ryan is likely on an IP restriction even if fully recovered (something that also likely depresses his trade value), SWR had a truly breakout season but tailed off badly, and Paddack hasn't had a good and healthy season in 5 years. Right now, only David Festa looks MLB-ready as a sixth starter. Varland is a reliever until he gets another good pitch, Zebby might get there but was not ready last year (his call-up was a product of desperation), and the others haven't sniffed MLB yet. Starting thin failed last year, and likely will again this year. (Plus it is SO MUCH CHEAPER to add position players in-season than starting pitching.) So trade from our depth for a solid arm. And give our in-house hitters (many of whom are already better than 2024's Kepler/Farmer/Margot) a chance to shine, making (cheaper) additions there as needed once the year begins. And buy Larnach a 1B glove; he can be the LH half of a duo with Miranda if Julien can't rediscover his stroke, and E-Rod presses for a space on the big club.
  18. PatPfund
    Prielipp is a power lefty, which the Twins desperately need.. Here are his totals for the 2020s. 2020: 4 games, 21 innings (Alabama). 2021: 7 innings ('bama, UCL tear). 2022: didn't pitch, drafted by Twins. 2023: 6.2 innings (FCL Twins, Cedar Rapids). 2024: 23.1 innings (Twins: FCL, A-, A+). In the minors he has struck out 48 in 30 innings, all as a starter. Also had two UCL operations in 3 years, all as a starter. We could keep him on a steady progression as a starter, and at this rate, maybe he'd be deemed worthy of a shot in 2030 after 3 more UCL surgeries. Or you see if he can stay healthy in shorter stints as a reliever, and invite him to ST to see if his stuff plays against big leaguers, and if it does you roster him; if not assign him to AAA (or wherever else seems appropriate). People who strike out 1.5 batters per IP, and who don't need the stamina of a starter can often be fast-tracked to MLB. For example, Duran pitched 16 whole lousy innings at AAA, before the Twins converted him to a reliever, and he immediately became a dominant force. In a budget strapped year, the Twins should try catching that lightning again, or at least see if reduced work can shepherd Prielipp through his first fully healthy season since high school.
  19. PatPfund
    Despite the doom and gloom, the Twins are (rightfully) considered a primary contender for their division title. Trading away one of your top 3 SPs is something a bad team does, not one with aspirations for the playoffs. And naming a bunch of prospect names means nothing for '25. Zebby had a great year last year until he hit the majors (where he was often lit up, confirming some scouting that his fastball is very MLB-hittable). Connor Prielipp can't throw 50 innings as a starter without blowing out his elbow (meaning he is likely headed for the 'pen not the rotation). Marco Raya never throws more than 5 innings. The others haven't even sniffed the bigs. So, no. You don't trade either of them. (Unless the season blows up so bad the team is out of it by June.)
  20. PatPfund
    Worth thinking along these lines, but I'm not sure why we'd target someone else's OF prospects when two of the highest of our prospects are OFs. Or a 3B if we are ready 'to move on from Royce Lewis'. (I say move on from anyone in the Twins' org that wants to move on from Lewis.) As for the 'pen, I'd skip the suggested trade, tell Prielipp he's a reliever this year, and give him a shot to make the team (we have our own dynamic arm that might blow itself up). And if you don't trade him, add the Sheriff to the bullpen as well (where he rocked a couple years ago). Prielipp, Paddack, Jax, and Duran with Stewart, Sands, Tonkin, and Varland sounds pretty good to me. Yeah, we need a starter too, as long as we don't overpay. There will be affordable and serviceable arms in FA if the Twins are patient, and while an ace is unlikely outside of a trade, a very big need will be someone who can deliver 150-160 competitive innings (since Ryan and others may be on innings limitations).
  21. PatPfund
    The Twins shouldn't even be looking at a player like this (or Santana) until after New Year's. Canha was a good player. But counting on a player in his later 30s with a possible lingering hip issue. for a position that involves running is pretty sketchy. And for sure he either needs to get over aspirations of a $10 million contract, and that won't happen until ST starts to loom on the calendar (or someone else pays him the bigger coin).
  22. PatPfund
    Still off-point, but also deeply incorrect. A year ago the Twins finished with one of the best rotations in MLB, and won a playoff series. They were returning Lopez, Ober, Ryan, and getting Paddack back after he looked fabulous in the playoffs in a bullpen role. They were going to lose one major piece in Gray, and the news about the budget made adding a new top pitcher look highly unlikely. But I don't know of many who had doubts about the top three.
  23. PatPfund
    Glad at least one other "boomer" pointed out that games weren't traditionally 3 hours long (4 freakin' hours when you got to playoffs). I was all for shortening the games through a clock and rule enforcement. Don't care for the anti-shift rule, because it makes the game stupider (seriously, if you insist on pulling the ball into 6 defenders you deserve to be out). The Golden At Bat strikes me as a stupid gimmick to insert artificial drama. I don't really worry about any of the objections in the OP since we are talking probably once-a-game. Most MLB players get pinch-hit for in a game at some point; many have others chosen to hit over them; egos don't shatter. Pitchers get good players out, and sometimes get beat by them. If one at-bat per game crumbles their well-being they are probably in the wrong profession. But it will have little impact on most games, so it adds little extra incentive to watch if you aren't already. Plus I can already see Rocco sending some light-hitting lefty up to hit for Correa in the playoffs, because a righty is on the mound.
  24. PatPfund
    Hate to try to get you back on topic, but the discussion here is about the projected 2025 rotation, and Joe Ryan DID get hurt and he hasn't pitched in a game since. Even if he has made a full recovery (and there is no way to know that until he pitches; the Twins are notoriously untrustworthy when it comes to injury updates), it almost certainly comes with innings restrictions, which seriously affects the depth of the '25 rotation. And if needs to adapt his throwing to prevent re-injury (the muscle didn't tear for no reason), Ryan might not be as effective, again affecting depth of rotation. This is not an area of strength.
  25. PatPfund
    Right now the Twins top three is Lopez (great), Ober (good), ....umm, umm, SWR? Festa? Paddack? Until Ryan is back actually pitching, and shows the injury hasn't set him back, and shows that he can pitch like last year, but not injure his shoulder again, and until we know what inning restrictions he might be under, he isn't a number 3. The deep questions that go with all of the other possible #3s show rotation is not currently a team strength. Even if I spot you Ryan, how about the Dodgers having Glasnow, Yamamoto, and Ohtani. Or sub in Dustin May, or sub in Tony Gonsolin. The point is that there were 20 pitching staffs with a better group ERA than the Twins. Rotation depth was a problem going into last season, they did nothing, and the rotation finished the year running on fumes. This is not an area of strength (especially to trade FROM).
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