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Everything posted by Rod Carews Birthday
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I agree completely with the premise of this article. While Duran is human, he is still at least as good as or better than almost all of the other relief pitchers we could put in the closer role on our team and others. Somehow we expect that perfection is the only acceptable outcome from a closer, when experience says that's just not true. Even Mariano Rivera and Joe Nathan allowed runs and occasionally blew saves.
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But the fact is that the Twins are indeed scoring runs, while striking out a very high rate. Your argument seems to be that the offense can't be any good because they strike out. My argument is that if the mix of strikeouts/runs works, it still works even if you don't find it eloquent. Would it be better if we struck out less? All other things the same, of course. But, would everything else remain the same? Do we hit as many home runs without the strikeouts? Do we score as many runs without the home runs? Strikeouts are not a stand alone predictive statistic any more than stolen bases or walks. If we score enough runs, we win. If we do it while striking out "too much", so be it. I'll take the win.
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Career strikeout totals were my point. In and of themselves, strikeout totals aren't the death knell to a hitter. See Thome, Jim. or Jackson, Reggie. or for that matter Killebrew, Harmon. That's why I used Miguel Sano as a negative example because he didn't have redeeming qualities that made his career longer. Certainly no hits result from strikeouts, but not all contact is the type to lead to more than an out. The Twins had an outfielder that spent about 2 1/2 years doing that before he rediscovered himself recently. I would also argue that a double play is much worse than a strikeout. I'm not saying that strikeouts are a desirable outcome. However, they aren't necessarily indicative of disaster either. You only keep score with runs. Strikeouts don't take them away, unless you are in a very complicated fantasy league.
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These are three solid players and I hope that they can at least get a shot at the majors. Camargo seems like the surest bet to me, as a catcher with more than a pulse. Helman and Prato had good seasons, but as @Dmansaid, I'm not sure where they fit on the current Twins team. Either of them could make a lot of sense on a non-contender with lots of holes to fill, but it seems unlikely that their ceiling is high enough to get someone to take a chance on them. It's an unfortunate conundrum. Good players. Not good enough to crack the current lineup, but not any substantial trade value either.
- 14 replies
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- michael helman
- anthony prato
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I'm not even remotely concerned about this. We won the division, are in the playoffs and our season continues next week. Therefore, we did something right. I present two arguments. First, if you look at the list of career strikeout leaders among MLB hitters (individuals), you will see that it is led by hall of famers Reggie Jackson and Jim Thome. In fact, when I looked at the entire top 100 list of career strikeout leaders, there wasn't anybody there who didn't qualify as at least a pretty good MLB player. Why is that? Because those players did enough good things that they had long careers and were allowed to continue to play in that same manner. Some, the Miguel Sanos of the world, don't do enough things right that even though they have ridiculous numbers of strikeouts in a season, don't appear on the top career strikeout list. You will notice that Joey Gallo does not appear on that list. Someday, Byron Buxton may. Second, a strikeout, while not pretty for the fans (unless it's your team pitching), doesn't necessarily do less for the team than a weak ground ball that is fielded and thrown to first base for an out (or even for a double play) or than an infield fly. Putting the ball in play certainly increases the odds that something good COULD happen, but doesn't necessarily mean that something good WILL happen. Would it be better if all of those strikeouts could turn into balls in play? Of course it would, but it is also not some unmitigated disaster that there are strikeouts. They are a part of a particular way that a group of hitters plays the game. If the Twins were made up of more hitters like Rod Carew or Luis Arraez, the strikeouts would come down, but that wouldn't necessarily get overall better results, especially if those hitters weren't actually as good as Arraez and Carew.
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Unless I'm mistaken, this is a best of three series, all played in Target Field next week (unless the improbable happens and we move up to #2). Therefore, the previous "years of playoff ineptitude" are completely irrelevant to this series. Not a single one of the players who will play next week were there for much (and for most NONE) of that streak, so they don't feel it the way the fans do. They are plenty motivated to win and won't be looking for or needing any additional reason to win the games. I also don't think it's particularly healthy for fans to dwell on playoff losses. Who does it help? I think it's probably healthier (and happier) to rejoice in the fact that the team was in the playoffs several times in the past twenty years or so. I'm choosing that and rooting for some Twins victories moving forward -- almost as much for choking off the weeping and gnashing of teeth about playoff losses from the fans as for the positive effects on the team's success this year.
- 25 replies
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- johan santana
- jose berrios
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Help Design My Man Cave
Rod Carews Birthday commented on IndianaTwin's blog entry in Un/Necessary Sports Drivel
Nice idea. I like the concept, but I'm envious of all of those baseball cards. I think #6 is best. It gives you the darker color as the outer border stripe making it pop a bit more and also the alternating red and blue is a nice pattern on the fathead. The lighter colored stripes wash out too much in the wall. -
Who Starts for the Twins in the Postseason?
Rod Carews Birthday replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
It's hard to spin as a problem that are actual choices and competition for spots. Sounds like the decision is made, and I agree with it, that Lopez and Gray in some order start the first two. Much is being made of who starts game three, but I think that is really unknowable at this point. It seems like Ryan is being set for it, which sounds great to me, but there could be reasons to go with Maeda (or even Ober) depending upon the circumstances. Regardless, if game 3 is in the wild card series it will be all hands on deck and everyone will have the world's shortest leash. If it is the first game of the next round, that could be a different scenario altogether. Let's wait and see what develops.- 4 replies
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- sonny gray
- joe ryan
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Wow! These guys are SO young! The top six includes one 19 year old, but a bunch are only 17. I realize that they are miles and miles from the majors, but this is an exciting group of hitters in the pipeline. They obviously all need lots of development, but the potential is there.
- 10 replies
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- dameury pena
- daniel pena
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Before the season started, I was very excited about the potential of the Twins starting pitching. However, as a long-time Twins fan, I figured something would come along to mess it up. Surely injuries and unexplainable ineffectiveness would plague the team. Injuries came along and took out Tyler Mahle, but Ober stepped right in. Ineffectiveness came along and messed with Maeda’s season, but somehow, that storm was weathered as well. Then, we had Joe Ryan’s injury, but they found a way through this also. All of this is to say, the usual bad stuff didn’t really happen to the Twins (collectively) and the pitching came through the season as it seems like that should have on paper before the season started. Having five pitchers of this caliber is totally unheard of for the Twins. Joe Ryan and Kenya Maeda’s stats aren’t sexy on paper, but as noted, if you look at what they have been capable of when pitching well, the staff is impressive compared to the league, and in fact unheard of for a Twins team. I’m not predicting that they are an unstoppable force, but in 1991 the WS championship team basically had three good pitchers — Kevin Tapani, who was outstanding and probably had the best season; Jack Morris, who was more solid than awesome during the season but definitely had the bulldog mentality; and Scott Erickson, who was unhittable early in the season and won 20 games but was decidedly gassed by the time the playoffs hit. The others got the job done but were nothing amazing. Lopez and Gray easily measure up to Tapani and Morris, while Erickson’s end of the year potential is probably matched or exceeded by Ober. That leaves two pitchers who have pitched like all-stars at times in Maeda and Ryan. To say they clear the bar set by Allan Anderson and David West would be quite the understatement. @Nick Nelson, an embarrassment of riches indeed! I don’t know where this leads, but for the first time in a long time, I feel like we can really be competitive in the playoffs. Let’s end the losing streak, win a series, and see where this all can lead.
- 32 replies
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- pablo lopez
- sonny gray
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I think Brooks Lee is going to become an important player for the Twins. Just because the team has had some success with young players doesn’t mean that all young players are ready to play in the major leagues. They all need to be evaluated separately. I believe there is some question as to whether he should have more seasoning in the minors at the beginning of next year and not brought up until sometime later in the season (when there are just “normal” MLB games). If that is true, then he probably has no business being on the playoff roster this season. He hit some balls hard at AAA against AAA pitchers isn’t really much of a qualifier. If it was, there would be about 30 position players on each team in the majors. If the comparison is with a veteran who is as good as Farmer, then it is no contest. I’ll take the veteran who is used to playing all over the field at a moment’s notice every time in a playoff environment. .
- 65 replies
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- brooks lee
- kyle farmer
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Oak A's Botch Gift to Cabrera...
Rod Carews Birthday replied to Dave Borton's topic in Other Baseball
I'm not sure whether to laugh or cry at that. Yikes! -
I think that they go six unless they get in big trouble before that. I agree that Lopez might be more able to push that than Gray. If either Maeda or Ryan (whoever starts) is the starter for the third game, they might be slightly less likely to go six, but not much. If either of them are truly on, they can be just as dominating to the lineups in front of them. If the Twins lose the first game, I think all bets are off as to usage. Then the second game becomes a desperation game, so everyone gets the quick hook in the event of trouble. If you lose that game too, there is no tomorrow to save your pitchers for. If we can score some runs, I'm pretty confident about the series.
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- pablo lopez
- kenta maeda
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Do we think there is any chance that Paddack and/or Stewart get recalled BEFORE the end of the season? There is a lot that could be learned by facing actual major league hitters (as much as can be possible in the last week of the season against bottom feeders). That would go a long way (esp. for Paddack) toward proving that they could be reliable out of the pen in the playoff rounds.
- 43 replies
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- derek falvey
- rocco baldelli
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Did a new season really start?
Rod Carews Birthday replied to VivaBomboRivera!'s topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Most definitely a huge improvement. It took a not quite .500 team and let them play at a 94.5 win pace in the second half. So glad they figured it out! Now to keep it going for the playoffs! -
This looks solid. I might choose Funderburk over a rehabbing Paddack, but I’m hoping neither will need to pitch. Buxton returning strikes fear in my heart. IF they use him to DH against lefties on the short side and as a possible pinch hitter, I can be ok with that I guess. However, my fear is that he is penciled into the lineup as DH everyday, essentially eliminating Julien from the equation and clogging up the lineup. Remember, Buxton hasn’t hit well most of the season and even more so the last month or so he was with the team. He really needs to show something solid on his rehab stint and not be scholarshipped onto the roster.
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- derek falvey
- rocco baldelli
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Great article! I feel like Polanco’s presence in the lineup has been a steadying factor for years. He generally isn’t the most powerful guy in the lineup, nor is he the highest OB guy in the lineup. He’s just that professional hitter who makes adjustments and gets the job done. When the group with Polanco, Rosario, Kepler, and Sano all came up, I would have never guessed that ultimately Polanco would become the most valuable to the Twins and would have the longest career with the team, but I think it is true. He has figured out ways to stay relevant to the team and keep on contributing even has his body has changed.
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The real question here is how to manage him if he is on the roster. If he's unable to function, the decision is easy. Leave him off the roster. If he is able to function, we have to assume that it will be only as DH and pinch hitter. I cannot imagine any way that he plays in the field (why start now?). He hasn't really hit well enough this season to be the full-time DH for the playoffs as that hamstrings the offense in many ways. So. . . . (if healthy-ish), you could put him on the roster and use him in a pinch hitting situation. He can be explosive enough that he would be very dangerous in the right situation. Unfortunately that means that you would probably need to sub him out if he gets a hit (the man doesn't walk), but used sparingly enough, that could be doable. I also wouldn't object to him being the DH for a game or two here or there, provided that he isn't clogging it up for the entire playoffs. The challenge, Mr. Baldelli, will be keeping him happy with just being there for part of it vs. being the star. Making Buxton, and the rest of the team, understand that will be the key to the equation. If he isn't displaying leadership by buying into that type of role, he could turn into a real distraction. My answer? Good question!
- 58 replies
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- byron buxton
- jordan luplow
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One Year Later in Chicago
Rod Carews Birthday replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
This article really should give us as fans a little bit of good perspective. I live in (near) Chicago and I can tell you that the Sox would gladly trade places with the Twins both historically and especially currently. They really don't have anything to look forward to in the next couple of years. The culture on that team has hardly ever been really good, even sometimes when the team was pretty good. For now, they just have to hope that they can find some good contributors and claw back to respectability. The Cubs, on the other hand, are probably convinced that they will win the World Series and that several of their players should be Hall of Famers. It's like that here. All the time. Yikes. -
I am basically in agreement with several posters in that I want him to get a little time off, but not so much that he loses he newly regained stroke at the plate. Also, as a veteran of plantar fasciitis myself, I also can concur that it's definitely a "you just don't know what it is doing from day to day" type of issue, although, I'm guessing that good physical therapy is probably preferable to the abuse it probably takes playing shortstop in the major leagues. This is probably a conversation that they have already had with him. He is most certainly a high level professional, and regardless of the season he has had offensively, probably has a better idea than anyone else what will make him the most effective for the playoffs. Whatever that is, he (and the team) should do it without hesitation.
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Things you don't miss in baseball...
Rod Carews Birthday replied to Dave Borton's topic in Other Baseball
I’m really not anti-internet or anti-technology, but I REALLY do miss the Sporting News! I don’t miss trying to survive on about 1 1/2 quality starting pitchers for the season. -
Twins CF In 2024...Is It Too Early To Talk About?
Rod Carews Birthday replied to DocBauer's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
I'm inclined to say it's too early, but with the oversized impact this can/will have on next year's team, it's hard not to think about it. My choice would be number 3. . . bring up Austin Martin and see what happens. Given the successes had this year with rookies, perhaps I am overconfident, but I think he has a good track record (as well as pedigree from being an early 1st round pick) and the hitting ability to make it happen. It won't be smooth or easy (or maybe it will!), but I think in the long run, Martin could be excellent. In the BEST case scenario, Buxton plays CF half of the time next year, so this gives a good pairing partner (I know, they're both right handed. . .) for the days when he either sits or plays DH. In the event Buxton isn't back in CF at all (this also presents other really bad challenges), the backup CF choices could be DeShawn Keirsey and/or Gilberto Celestino. I have less faith that either of them will be highly successful in the majors, but a resigning of Andrew Stevenson to a minor league deal would provide a bit of backup to the backup insurance. How good they need to be really depends on whether Martin takes the job and runs with it, playing 140 games in CF or if half time is all he can handle. Also, Willi Castro provides something quite a bit better than a break glass in case of emergency CFer as well. I wouldn't complain either if the Twins brought back Michael A Taylor for another year, but I like the above choices much better. All of these saves the money for some relief pitching and/or some prospects to get another quality starting pitcher. Too early. Yes. But my paranoid self can't help but think about it and I'm guessing that behind the scenes the Twins are too. -
I'm officially done with Rocco
Rod Carews Birthday replied to USAFChief's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
To answer your direct question. . . No, that doesn’t necessarily mean that he knows baseball and the strategy that goes along with it. However, a guy with his experiences and skills is a pretty good place to start to look for a manager. People like to rail against every decision that doesn’t work out in a game as though it is some sort of definitive proof that Rocco isn’t up to the job. EVERY. SINGLE. TEAM. HAS. PLAYS. THAT. DON’T. WORK. OUT. IN. EVERY. SINGLE. GAME. Does that mean that none of those managers know anything? Should they all be fired? No one will agree with any manager or coach all of the time and Rocco is no different. I personally am neither pro-Baldelli nor anti-Baldelli. I think he is basically OK. There are just too many decisions out there to get them all right and the season is too long to think that they are looking at the situation in exactly the same way as we might. Sometimes people manage in the moment. Sometimes they are managing for later in the season. I lived in one of those jobs that occasionally garnered public criticism. What I found was that the people who really did know how to do my job were the people who had the least criticism of it. It was usually the people who thought they knew who were the loudest, and also the most off base. I can’t name ten guys who I would like to be the next Twins manager, let alone guys who are posters on a blog site. Next time there is an opening, they had better submit their resumes. I hear it’s a good gig. -
So. . . you’re saying that managers shouldn’t have “quick hooks” in the playoffs? And. . . if a Ryan or Ober start isn’t going well after 4 or 5 they should be left in? And. . . Gray’s start shouldn’t depend on how much traffic he allows and his strike percentage? If I’m reading this correctly, you seem to be saying that the way these pitchers have been handled is OK with you. With all of these so called faults by Rocco, the Twins manage to be tied for the lead in innings per start. Well OK then. Sign me up for that. I’m pretty certain that each of them will go out there with the attitude of going at least six innings. Some of them may actually get there, and some may not. Regardless, those pitchers are going up there to get people out and will need to do so to stay in the game. This is a pointless argument. The Twins don’t pull their pitchers any sooner than anyone else does. To suggest otherwise is to ignore math.

