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Rod Carews Birthday

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Everything posted by Rod Carews Birthday

  1. Rod Carews Birthday
    As many have indicated, these were obvious and necessary pickups. On the surface, Polanco is much more consistent but has grown more injury prone, while Kepler is less injury prone but much more likely to be either “good Max” or “bad Max”. With just those considerations, I would rather have Polanco than Kepler on my team, taking consistency over feast/famine. However, at the moment, we are much more likely to be successful replacing Polanco on the roster than Kepler. We just have a ton more infielders with flexibility than we do guys who profile as a solid corner outfielder. I’m feeling pretty good about Wallner, but beyond that, it’s a bit of a crapshoot. I am in agreement with those who say to keep Farmer (less $$/similar role moving forward) and trade Polanco. It removes a salary and I think he actually would have better trade value (I haven’t consulted BBTV, but they can be a little random.). Spend that (and more) on resigning Gray or a similar pitcher and make sure that the return for Polo (and others, too many guys for the 40 man roster) is either a quality starting pitcher or a big bopper to put in LF, thus making Kepler expendable also.
  2. Rod Carews Birthday
    I can definitely get onboard with the “if not now, when?” argument. I think that’s logical anytime that there is an influx of cheap talent either there or on it’s way. I’m not sure that the Twins pipeline is necessarily quite the same bunch of future all-stars that you are thinking, but there are definitely some good players both in hand and on the way. I think most of my objection to signing Ohtani (I think we’re in agreement that it’s not actually happening) is that I am wary to commit to ten years at $50M per year. If things don’t work out for him — his injury is worse than advertised, he just turns into a pumpkin out of the blue one day, etc. — that’s a huge amount of money to have committed to one player that has the potential to hamstring the roster. I agree with your earlier post that ten years for him might be better spent than ten years for Bogaarts or Machado, but I’m in the camp that says ten years is too much for anybody. I might be in the minority on this, but I actually think the length is a bigger issue than the $50M per annum. It’s not my checkbook, so I don’t really care about the money, but I do care that they can continue to be competitive and not completely tank five or six years down the road. If I thought that he was the one player that would put the Twins over the top for the WS, I might pull the trigger, but I don’t think they are quite there. All of that being said, it would be awesome to have him on the team!
  3. Rod Carews Birthday
    You may be right on Yamamoto. It's just hard to know for sure until you see them in the same league. Maybe I'm biased because of the position player side of things (Nishioka), but it's a lot of unknown to take up for $200M+. Is the posting fee capped these days at like $20M or something like that?
  4. Rod Carews Birthday
    I think that Blake Snell is not worth that because he has only pitched 150+ innings of 3.50 ERA ball twice in his career -- in 2018, his Cy Young year and this year, likely another Cy Young year. Outside of that he doesn't manage that many innings and even though he strikes out a lot of guys he also walks a ton of guys. I don't think it's impossible that he could be good again, but I also think it's possible that he turns back into a $25-30M pumpkin, which would be tough on the payroll situation for a team like the Twins. If you are shopping in that market, you are expecting better consistency. As to Ohtani, he may be worth it, but I don't think that the Twins can or should devote that much of their payroll to one guy. He's great, no question, but he's injured right now and not a sure thing. $50M per year needs to be a sure thing for me to bite.
  5. Rod Carews Birthday
    You're right about worth being a loaded word. You might be right that $50M for the next five years could be a good deal as per the open market, but I also think that you are right in that the final five could get scary, especially for a mid-market payroll team like the Twins. It's just a LOT of money to have tied up in one player and there are no sure things out there. I would prefer to take a chance on someone for less money who isn't coming off of an injury. Maybe that makes me risk averse, but I think the Twins are also a little risk averse as well.
  6. Rod Carews Birthday
    The beauty of free agent pitching is that it just costs money, and not a bunch of players/prospects. The downside is that often that money is grossly inflated and you wind up paying for what someone did in the past instead of what they will do in the future, without regard to injury. I cannot fathom a world in which Ohtani is going to be worth $50M a season when his pitching is no sure thing for recovery and Yamamoto, whose resume is so difficult to evaluate, is worth $200M+ either. That being said, I think that the rest of the top end of this scale (Blake Snell, Aaron Nola, Jordan Montgomery, et al.) is also a pretty big overpay. I don't like Sonny Gray's age, but at a three year commitment, seems like one of the better buys on the list -- others may also think so and run up the price! I do think that Eduardo Rodriguez might also be an OK buy, plus he's left handed. In the not quite, but almost, bargain bin, I do like Lucas Giolito on a short contract. He would be a low/medium risk but high reward candidate. Unless you want to pay really big bucks, there isn't that much out there in this class. Time for a trade.
  7. Rod Carews Birthday
    I think that the time to trade him isn't this winter, if at all. He's so young, in fact, he's a lottery ticket even for the Twins, and they know the most about him. If he goes to AA in 2024 and plays a season there we will learn a lot. It might be that he is a massive star who will become a perennial all-star, but it also might be a guy whose ceiling is A+ ball who might never go any further. In either case, I feel like we need a better base of information before we pull the trigger on a trade OR pronounce him a future building block. I agree with @mikelink45 that Lee and Jenkins are ahead of him, especially in terms of relative certainty. Let's hold on another year or so before we do something rash.
  8. Rod Carews Birthday
    The best thing he can do is ignore the Royce Lewis hype train that so many fans are on. I think he's going to be a big, big star, but it seems unlikely that he is going to be a the several highlights per week player that we saw in his limited action this past season. He needs to pace himself, stay healthy, and go out there everyday at his best. It's a long season. Based on what we have seen so far, the numbers will take care of themselves. The most obvious, and most likely place for improvement will be on defense, as he continues to get used to playing 3B. He makes his share of highlight reel plays, but have the routine plays become just that, routine, for him will take him to the next level (see Correa, Carlos).
  9. Rod Carews Birthday
    Count me in the "likely no" category as well, but you always need to check out the possibilities, no matter how crazy they seem. That also helps you understand how other teams value (or don't value) your players and prospects as well. I'm generally anti trading away a bunch of prospects for a one year rental player, but for the right (low, low) price, we certainly can listen. Thinking about the numbers and trade values, if Kepler could be part of the package for Soto (with probably two more pieces), that does take $10M off of the payroll next year and makes Soto fit the budget much better. His presence also lessens the level of prospects that need to be included. Even better if one of the guys we don't exactly have a home for like Larnach and/or Miranda. If the Padres are really interested in a salary dump, I'm there listening.
  10. Rod Carews Birthday
    Completely agree. Also, don't limit yourself to traditional sources for talent. Suzyn Waldman from the Yankees is excellent and she was just a baseball fan that they pulled off a theater stage. (Plus have you heard her sing the National Anthem?!)
  11. Rod Carews Birthday
    We need to tap the brakes just a little bit on Brooks Lee. I do think that he will become an excellent big leaguer, but he didn't really tear up AAA last season. I think going back to St. Paul will serve him well and help ensure that when he comes up to MLB he'll be able to stay. Right now, we have two players at 2nd bass who are pretty good in Julien and Polanco, so Lee is without a spot to play on the current iteration of the Twins team. I like what @Blyleven2011suggested about getting him some reps in LF, where the door could be wide open (Wallner to RF if/when Kepler is traded). If he could get some solid experience at LF for a half season or so, Lee might fit perfectly into the team picture. For now Mr. Lee, go to St. Paul, get additional defensive flexibility, keep working on the hitting, and we'll see how it's all working by July.
  12. Rod Carews Birthday
    I think that Willi Castro should serve as a warning to those who want to see minor league players promoted -- RIGHT NOW! He came up with a little flash and then struggled enough that a bad team DFA'd him. A year or two longer in AA and AAA and a year like 2023 might have been his rookie year. If that was the case, we would be talking about what a star this guy was going to be. I'm really glad he is a Twin. As is, he would appear to be a really great utility player with the upside that he can hold his own at a number of positions on the field and with his bat and feet as well. He's a better version of Marwin Gonzalez, who we signed a few years back to much fanfare. I'm not sure I want Castro to be the starting CF'er, not because I don't think he could be OK, but because we really need him in that super utility role to which he has become so indespensible. It's sort of the opposite of the Byron Buxton problem from this year. Buxton occupying the DH spot didn't really help the team. Willi Castro playing all over the field will continue to help the Twins immensely.
  13. Rod Carews Birthday
    It would appear that some patience would be in order with Joe Ryan. He had an absolutely outstanding first half of the season, followed by injury and some struggle. Let him start the year healthy and see if he can stay that way. If he does, I'm willing to bet he will be just fine (Sonny Gray 2023 fine? Who knows?). Fans with short memories are forgetting that he was recently the opening day starter because he was the best we had at the time. Now that the rotation has been beefed up, there are others who have taken that mantle and we are suddenly worried that he is a #3 or #4 or #5 (even barely!). It's not a black and white world with pitchers, and somewhere in those shades of grey lies Joe Ryan. He's at Driveline working at pitches trying to keep improving and I think he will be a very worthy member of the rotation going forward.
  14. Rod Carews Birthday
    I'm in agreement. The challenge is to decide whether he has a great deal more potential because he is somewhat successful without advantageous mechanics or whether his lack of those mechanics will never allow him to get there. Sometimes, a player looks great and does everything right and is no better than SWR is now. In such a player there is no potential. In SWR, if things can be unlocked, he could still be very good - whether that's in the bullpen or the rotation. It would be exciting to be his coach, but also potentially very frustrating!
  15. Rod Carews Birthday
    It is unfortunate that this can happen, both for the team and for the player. Mostly though, it really does show us how difficult it is to predict future MLB success. There is no one perfect path to the majors. Sometimes it's no one's fault -- injuries, etc. Sometimes it's a player moving down (or being moved down) the wrong path for them - imagine making Luis Arraez into a power hitter. Sometimes the player loses commitment and interest. Sometimes they're just not as good as we imagined or hoped that they would be. And that's just for the front offices that have way more information than we do! That's why I mostly try not to get too excited about prospects coming up until they are absolutely ripping up AA and/or AAA. The good news is that one big reason prospects drop is because other prospects rise to take their place. Hopefully they can live up to their new ranking.
  16. Rod Carews Birthday
    Wow! Didn’t see that one coming. Sounds like changing the tire on a car. If only that were the case all around!
  17. Rod Carews Birthday
    As proven by this year’s playoffs, going in with a gaudy record guarantees exactly nothing. I think you would be hard pressed to find anyone that picked either of them to make the WS outside of their own fan bases, and yet, here we are. These results should make Twins fans a little more positive (but it likely won’t for some) about this past season. Getting in the door of the playoffs is like getting in the door for a job interview. Everyone starts with the same clean slate and nearly anything can happen. Back in 1987, the Twins were no juggernaut. They simply had some good players and they got hot enough at the right time to win two playoff series. People generally only remember that they won, not how they got there. Let’s hope next year’s version of the Twins can duplicate that.
  18. Rod Carews Birthday
    I think we are likely either to stand pat completely or to pull off a couple of trades that make fans say “They traded (Insert Name Here)! That’s terrible!” It doesn’t sound like there will be enough folding money to go out and sign any impact guys — at least for more than one year with the current broadcast rights situation, so making a trade or two would seem to be the best way to improve the club. I completely agree with @tony&rodney that the key will be to make a mutually beneficial trade for both teams. They already have the track record of doing so in the Arraez/Lopez trade, so that should make more teams willing to talk to them. The guys who they trade for are unlikely to be household names, but rather guys that could be on the cusp of something special. It’s a tough chance to take, but one that must be taken. The obvious trade candidates at the moment would seem to be Farmer, Larnach, and Polanco unless we can trade a pitcher plus a sweetener for a better pitcher. The difficult part is whether to trade any other young guys. What could you get for Julien? With Martin and Lee on the horizon, would this be the time to trade high on a player who could be replaced in the lineup by another prospect? I don’t know the answer, but I could definitely guess the tires will be kicked on such a move this winter.
  19. Rod Carews Birthday
    I am also a fan of Joe Ryan. Aside from the obvious thrill of getting a legit starting pitcher for a couple of months of Nelson Cruz in a down year, he has to be looked at as a long term really good piece in the rotation. He's only going into his third full year which is a time when a lot of pitchers really make a step forward (see Viola, Frank or Radke, Brad plus plenty of others). Heck, Johan Santana wasn't even a starter until his fourth year in the majors. By those Twins comparison, Ryan is doing really great. It's anybody's guess what his long term career looks like. Will he be able to master a full season of "good" Joe Ryan and be in the running for a CYA? Will he be a consistent solid pitcher like Kevin Tapani or Brad Radke? Will he become a Twins great? He seems like a guy who doesn't get flustered by much and who has established an exceptional floor (pretty solid even while injured for part of a season), so now it's time to take a step forward and show us what his ceiling can be.
  20. Rod Carews Birthday
    This isn't a reaction to your post. It's a reminder. You have now actually seen a Twins playoff win. You've got some business to take care of. Name change time! Ha! Ha! Enjoyed the original post!
  21. Rod Carews Birthday
    I dislike this tremendously, but you're absolutely right!
  22. Rod Carews Birthday
    MAYBE Odorizzi on a Keuchel-like deal. No way to the other two. When a guy like Torii Hunter came back, he had been and still was a star, not someone hanging on and scraping by. No soft spot for any of those guys. If we don't have better options in the minors, I'd be surprised, and if we don't, we should be looking elsewhere for some trades or FA's. Maybe Big Papi wants to come out of retirement. I'm sure he's not in shape!
  23. Rod Carews Birthday
    I’m not sure that these playoff statistics are really all that usable. Yes, some players hit well in these six games while others didn’t, but obviously this is a ridiculously small sample size — playoffs or not. During the regular season, players have great six game stretches and poor six game stretches all the time and it doesn’t really register as a blip on the radar. Remember that Kirby Puckett fellow? Before becoming a playoff monster, he had a .583 OPS in his first five game playoff series in 1987. Certainly Carlos Correa has demonstrated over a long period of time that he can come up in big moments. In fact, he has as many playoff at bats as Royce Lewis has at bats in the majors, which leads me to think we need to learn a lot more about Lewis (and Julien) before we crown them as playoff bats, whatever that actually means.
  24. Rod Carews Birthday
    I think the contract looks amazing from the Twins side of things. I'm just not convinced that he would take it. I'm guessing it might take some up front money in a signing bonus plus bigger numbers on the option years. While you can never predict potential injury, he's been able to go very well since he's been in the bullpen. He's also been as good as anyone in the league for two years, so the value is certainly there.
  25. Rod Carews Birthday
    I would take duplicate numbers in 2024 gladly.
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