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Everything posted by Rod Carews Birthday
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Nothing was probably too strong, but he never became what he was projected and assumed to become. That may have been my anti-Cubs bias showing through a little, but his career wasn’t that memorable. Excellent for one year and pretty good for two years doesn’t really compare to what Mauer wound up doing.
- 11 replies
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- joe mauer
- mike radcliff
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Fun retrospective Seth. The Twins definitely got it right when they picked Mauer, but it definitely shows the uncertainty at the top of the draft board. What looks really great for a team (Pryor to the Cubs) can wind up being a big nothing in the end. The Twins have had that happen as well so it's nice to see the sun shine on them once in a while.
- 11 replies
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- joe mauer
- mike radcliff
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What to Know When Experiencing Cooperstown
Rod Carews Birthday replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Great article. I can echo everything in it, particularly the part about going to the museum before or after the ceremonial day. The HOF is really two parts, the "Hall" with all of the individual plaques, which got a little overwhelming after a while, and the history of the game museum exhibit, which is awesome! In the realm of "other things to do" in/near Cooperstown, I would add that the town sits on Lake Otsego, which is very nice - with sailboats on the lake. On the north side of town there is the Fennimore Art museum, and if you drive a ways, there are wineries in the finger lakes region. There is a state park called Glimmerglass that is quite cool with covered bridges, as well as an opera company of the same name, but I'm not sure how much the Venn diagram of Twins fans and Opera buffs really intersects! -
Still no. Slightly better projection, but not remarkable enough to justify trading a Royce Lewis.
- 94 replies
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- max kepler
- kyle farmer
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That was a pretty fun season, even if there were many naysayers at the beginning of the season with him being hurt. He put that to rest pretty quickly, and I remember thinking, “Well, this is great but he can’t really keep this up for the whole season - especially those home runs.” Yes he could. . . and did. Now, if only Buxton would have done that after starting the year injured last season!
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I guess the question really is are you actually willing to trade Royce Lewis for a few more innings of a guy who isn’t quite as good as (or at best, similar to) Bailey Ober? I’m not. https://stathead.com/tiny/khcvs
- 94 replies
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- max kepler
- kyle farmer
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Hunter was a terrific MN Twin -- great fielder, excellent hitter, strong leader. He belongs in the hall of very good, with some consideration (which he is getting) for the Hall of Fame. He won't get in now, and I think probably will not get in via the veteran's committee (or whatever they are calling its current iteration). And that's OK. He was an awesome part of some very good teams and made baseball fun to watch. Not making the HOF doesn't make him less of a player. Bravo for a fine career!
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Something is brewing. This is public posturing and may or may not be entirely true. Give it a week. I don't know for sure if anything will happen, but there is something going on.
- 94 replies
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- max kepler
- kyle farmer
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There was an article earlier this week about fans undervaluing Ober and Ryan as starters. I think this is further proof that we shouldn't do that. I think they are both solid, if inexperienced #3 pitchers who have some headroom left to grow and be better. I doubt that they will become full blown aces (whatever that means), but it seems likely that they could makeup for some of the quality innings thrown by Gray last year and potentially slot into a starting role in the playoffs. I personally find it fascinating to see all of the trade proposals for us to give up the farm for other teams' starters, most of whom have very similar stats to our own guys.
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Joe Mauer Hall of Fame Vote Watch
Rod Carews Birthday replied to AlwaysinModeration's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
You will love it. The HOF is really cool. Be warned, it's a small town so things will get exceedingly crowded. -
This. If I had to guess, one of those guys could wind up being pretty good and pretty valuable this year - not lights out, but useful. Balazovic has no time: it's sink or swim for him. That's why you flood the zone with relief options so that you can pick the hot hand and go with it. As we found out last year, you don't always pick correctly, but they will find some live arms to make things happen. I'm happy we're not counting on "three of these four guys have to make it this year". That would be a substantially bigger problem. Having a base of Duran, Jax, Theilbar, and Brock Stewart gives the team some flexibility that they didn't necessarily have in past years, which is why I'm not overly panicked about the bullpen.
- 28 replies
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- cole sands
- jordan balazovic
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I don't completely disagree with your statement about not investing not being a great choice. However, one of the benefits (and risks) of a young and talented team is that they will continue to improve. Often those guys who are young and unproven wind up being better than the guys you lost. It's definitely not a sure thing, but it is also not an unmitigated disaster. There will be some regression, but there is an equal chance that the growth will make up for it. That didn't work out for Cleveland last year, but it surely did back in the 1986 offseason for the hometown nine. I'm not saying that's where this group is headed (yet) but I have learned to never say never. In my former line of work, people used to panic every year about how we would replace so and so, the all-state player, the section leader, the drum major. Magically, there was always someone there to take their place and much more frequently than not, be a strong contributor -- until they graduated and we got to panic (needlessly) all over again. In a good program, and arguably, the Twins have a very good feeder program on the farm, there are individuals who can and will step up. That's why you develop them in the first place, and why people are often reluctant to trade them. Sometimes you just need to take a couple of deep breaths and move on.
- 66 replies
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- carlos correa
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For now, I would be thrilled for Austin Martin to just be the guy who hits and fields well enough to bridge the gap to the next really good CF for the Twins. Let's bring him up, give him a job, and see how he does. I think he could do just fine, as long as we can temper the expectations that he is going to go out there and field as well as MAT or Buxton and hit like Lewis. A league average offensive season from a rookie with positional flexibility is huge.
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A lot going on out there, even if it doesn't consist of the signing(s) we would all like. Hopefully the agreement/arrangement can result in some certainty regarding rights payments for the Twins so they can move ahead with firm plans for this year. As for the White Sox and stadium building, I wouldn't hold my breath right now. The Bears are in the middle of negotiations/plans to build a stadium and I'm sure that they are far ahead of the Sox in the pecking order. Even on the Bears stadium plan, a lot has gone silent recently as the suburb where they have land isn't just laying down and opening their wallets. There's a lot to be settled before either of those become reality, especially the Sox. The stadium itself is one of the last "concrete monstrosity" type stadiums built, as after that, most stadiums were more "boutique" like and interesting. As such, I'm sure that the Sox would like to get in on the action. When it was originally built, it was pretty awful and pretty spartan, but some of the remodeling jobs over the years have made into a much better place from which to watch baseball. I don't love it, but I think it would be a shame to demolish it.
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Is Ryan Jeffers Underrated?
Rod Carews Birthday replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
No. He just hasn’t been good long enough. Keep up the production, play more games, and he’ll get there. -
Are Twins fans underrating Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober?
Rod Carews Birthday replied to Rik19753's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
No. I’m not able to take the kind of punishment that goes with junior high kids! -
The question is, when you look at his career body of work, was he the best (or nearly so) at his position in his generation of players. If that answer is yes, then he is certainly on a HOF track. If the answer is no, then he'll get some votes and stick around for a couple of years but never be close (aka Torii Hunter). He's going to need to continue to compile for a few more years to know for sure. I would say this, if he is still earning his salary by the end of his contract, he'll definitely be on the right path. As fans, we give a lot more weight to what a player did in the past year or two, and often don't look at the overall picture. Hall of Fame voters are more likely to look at the big picture, as well as peak years and longevity. I don't know if he will get in or not, but he's the most likely Twin at this point and I think it will be close.
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Are Twins fans underrating Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober?
Rod Carews Birthday replied to Rik19753's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
I'm a retired band director. That makes me a bit of an optimist! You have to be if you're going to listen to little Johnny attempt to play the oboe! -
Are Twins fans underrating Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober?
Rod Carews Birthday replied to Rik19753's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
There are certainly better pitchers in the league than Ober and Ryan, but I think they are written off too often. I think we are undervaluing them as pitchers. For example: Who would you get more excited about? Pitcher A: 27 year old pitched 144 innings at 125 ERA+ Pitcher B: 26 year old pitched 190 innnings at 108 ERA+ Pitcher C: 27 year old pitched 177 innings at 97 ERA+ Pitcher D: 27 year old pitched 161 innings at 95 ERA+ The obvious standout here is Pitcher A, but we would love to trade for pitcher B. Pitcher C and Pitcher D seem like the same guy to me if it's all about what have you done lately (like last year), but I think most would prefer we had Pitcher C on the team over Pitcher D Pitcher A is Bailey Ober. Pitcher B is Logan Gilbert. Pitcher C is Dylan Cease. Pitcher D is Joe Ryan. -
Are Twins fans underrating Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober?
Rod Carews Birthday replied to Rik19753's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Yuck. That really is awful! I hope they make him clean it up. Sorry. I digress. I put more blame on the injury Ryan had last season than you do, and that's OK. I just think he never really found his rhythm again after that. I would also like to see some more innings out of Ober. I think they are both better than we give them credit for being. -
Are Twins fans underrating Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober?
Rod Carews Birthday replied to Rik19753's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
I don't disagree that we aren't that likely to see a huge spike in development, but I do think that both of them have a little more left in the tank in terms of ceiling. Both of them are still on the upward/building side of their MLB careers, so I'll gladly take the over (from last year) on both of their performances for 2024. For Ober, it mostly has to do with health, which could easily happen. For Ryan, people forget that prior to his injury his performance was as good as any pitcher on the staff. Avoiding injury and being more forthright about it are also key to his success. A lot of tea is being spilled about replacing Sonny Gray in the rotation. Yes. I think he was a very good pitcher, but a few more good innings out of Ryan and Ober, combined with some solid performance from Paddack and Varland (or his replacement) can fully replace him. Remember, the Twins' record in games Gray pitched actually wasn't nearly as good as one might expect by looking at his raw stats. I think we got everything that we needed to/were likely to out of Sonny Gray and don't really think he will ever duplicate what he did last season either. -
I think that this was a really cool thing to happen. Since I was only three years old, I've heard about it many times from my older siblings and cousins and it is a tale that they tell with great enthusiasm. I'm guessing that the "unwritten rules of baseball" guys wouldn't have liked it very much!
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Are Twins fans underrating Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober?
Rod Carews Birthday replied to Rik19753's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
I think that we criminally underrate both Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober. They both have a solid track record of success as well above average mlb starters. If you take average starter as a #3 starter, that puts both in the #2 to #3 range. Which you think is better is a matter of some split (and reasonable) opinions. Why are they underrated? I think it's because neither was heralded as a great prospect and we have seen the growing pains along with the good results. We see the results but wonder about health/durability in Ober and consistency/smoke&mirrors in Ryan because we assume we can't have nice things. We've only seen Pablo Lopez' good year. Somehow it always seems like another team's best pitchers are sure things on the mound while ours just have a decent chance for success. That's mostly a matter of perspective, as I'm guessing that our best seem very daunting for other teams just like theirs do for us. I would love it if we could pick up another good pitcher, but I definitely don't think we are in trouble going into the season with who we have. The odds of Ober or Ryan developing into an even better pitcher are pretty solid. Patience. . . .

