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Rod Carews Birthday

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Everything posted by Rod Carews Birthday

  1. Rod Carews Birthday
    It’s all in the details. Yes, if access is good and the money works but this rumor reveals too little to know a definitive answer.
  2. Rod Carews Birthday
    So wait. . . . strikeouts aren't the be all and end all of a successful team and the Twins didn't suck because of it? Cool! I kind of thought so. But for some, the fixation will continue.
  3. Rod Carews Birthday
    If the Jays will part with Manoah and Cooke for Polanco, that's a no brainer. Manoah is a big enough talent to be worth a substantial risk. I can't really imagine that an offer like that gets it done, but maybe with a sweetener on our side like Winder/Gordon/etc. I'm in.
  4. Rod Carews Birthday
    I hate giving up any of the young guys, but in order to get something good in return, we will have to. I think that Lee and Julian are different guys, but they fill the same position. Lee is probably a little better fielder, and I think that Julian is (and will be) the better hitter. Watching Julian last year made me excited about what he could become. He seems like he will only get better, with a very high ceiling. I think Lee could be one of those guys who is a really solid player all around, but not really great in any area. So, super high floor, but I don't get as excited about the ceiling. I think that they both could have relatively long MLB careers. On the flip side, who do you like between Wallner and Severino? Again, different guys and different positions, but similar upside. I'm less sure on this one. Would Lee and one of Wallner/Severino get it done? I think I could get behind that. We could throw in Gordon as an all around somewhat useful player that we don't really have a home for. Losing Wallner leaves us pretty thin on outfielders (and why I'm more sold on the Severino side I guess), so Larnach becomes pretty important for the short term as our higher upside guys are a couple of years away.
  5. Rod Carews Birthday
    This seems like a very reasonable take on the situation. I might bump up the first year or two just slightly so he can have some "money in his pocket" sooner rather than later. The psychological difference between $700K and $4M or $5M right now is a lot more than between $15M and $20M later. Even with the injuries he's had in his career, he seems like a somewhat safer bet than Buxton -- but you never know.
  6. Rod Carews Birthday
    That's a little cherry-picked, and a little wrong. They were actually 3rd in HR not 21st. Also 10th in runs scored, 4th in BB, 9th in OPS+, and most importantly 6th in ERA and 3rd in ERA+. That being said, they were certainly polarizing. People mostly loved them (mostly due to pitching -- hard to imagine typing that about the Twins) or mostly hated them (strikeouts). They also get an awful lot of love for breaking "the streak". Whether that is reasonable or not depends on your point of view and definition of success. I don't know for sure whether they qualify as one of the top 10 Twins teams, but they are certainly close to it.
  7. Rod Carews Birthday
    I agree it is unlikely, but depending on how/where Buxton is playing the next couple of years and how much heat he is taking from the fans/team, it may make him more willing to move on. Nobody likes to play where there life is unpleasant.
  8. Rod Carews Birthday
    OK. I'll be unpopular. I like the choice. It looks like it could be the beginning of a period of very good teams moving forward. It isn't 1987 (which got pretty lucky) or 1991 which get the nod because they won it all. There were some good teams in the 1960's, but it wasn't consistent so there's about three or four more. After 1970 it was a mostly a black hole for a while, like the mid to late 1990's. There were likely a couple of years in the 2000's-2010's that might be in the mix as well. I like it so far, but I'm anxious to complete the list.
  9. Rod Carews Birthday
    It seems like (as per the Twins) Miranda's third base days are over. At this point, you need to look at him as Kirilloff insurance at first base, and probably nowhere else except DH. Kirilloff has always seemed limited in the OF, so he is also 1B/DH material, although the two complement each other with one hitting from each side of the plate. The "next man up" would appear to be Austin Martin, probably in the OF, but also possibly at 2nd base. Let's find out where we are with him before we make any rash moves among the young players, unless they can immediately net us a top flight pitcher. By midseason, we should know how Martin does or doesn't fit into the picture and we'll likely know a lot more about Brooks Lee as well. If he can come up and play well, then someone is probably the odd man out. Not sure who that should be. I'm a big fan of keeping Julien because I think his skill set is a little more unique in today's game on the Twins, but I think when mid-season comes, it will be time to make a decision, either for an in season trade or for a next season trade. That doesn't leave us in a good position right now, when we are all dying to trade for a starting pitcher. Last season has us spoiled. We've never (in the past 30 years or so) had a starting staff like last season, and may never have that again. If we had the returning staff of Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Paddack, and Varland in most years, we would think of it as a strength. It seems likely that Lopez will be very solid. It also seems plausible that Ober and/or Ryan could take a big step forward. It seems reasonable that Paddack will be effective in limited innings and Varland could establish himself. There may be more there than we think right now, although the depth in case of injury isn't really there at all. All of this is a long way of saying, maybe we can wait. Let's not trade Julien, or Martin, or Lee. Let's make sure we have things well-covered first.
  10. Rod Carews Birthday
    Grisham just doesn’t seem worth it. He profiles as a defense-first fourth outfielder, which isn’t worth Farmer alone, Mercedes alone, or SWR alone, let alone all together. If I’m the Yankees I take that trade and laugh all the way to the bank. Farmer is obviously a very replaceable part on the Twins current team, but Mercedes and SWR each probably have a higher upside than Grisham, who they don’t really need or want.
  11. Rod Carews Birthday
    I don’t entirely disagree with this, but the article was essentially a review of statements by a nationally prominent writer that was already using the analogy. There really wasn’t anywhere else to go with it unless one was 100% in agreement with it. The vitriol that surfaced in the comments would seem to reinforce the narrative. I would really like it if politics (of either side) could stay entirely out of sports (and many other things), but like it or not, they are intrusive. All too often, what happens affects one’s favorite team or players in ways that are not positive so it forces us to all deal with it, each in our own ways.
  12. Rod Carews Birthday
    I think that’s very unlikely given the level of some of the other duos out there. . HOWEVER, the fact that Buxton and Correa were so offensively challenged last season could mean that if they return to norms and the people around them duplicate last season’s success, the TEAM could have a very strong lineup. That’s what I’m hoping for and that’s would will hopefully carry them a little further in the playoffs this time around.
  13. Rod Carews Birthday
    Hello @Squirrel! I couldn’t agree with your assessment more. I also live near Chicago (not in it, but out in the burbs) and it becomes a major source of frustration (and surprisingly humor) when I hear people talk about how awful the city is and how it’s just going downhill every day and how nobody wants to even go there anymore. Judging by the traffic I am in every time I go to Chicago, the complainers obviously aren’t making the impact they think they are — they’re just loud. Unfortunately, many people make observations based on “Yesterday I came here and didn’t see a problem, but today I saw one so obviously it’s all falling apart” small sample size. No amount of (true) statistics that talk about how much crime rates have fallen in the last 20 or 30 years seem to have an impact on their arguments either. But, as the original author posted, they are bombarded with a one sided narrative all day and choose to believe it, because they don’t necessarily know any better. Undoubtedly, San Francisco has the same things working against it, as does Minneapolis-St. Paul. Whether any of those things cause players to avoid signing in those cities is dubious at best, as we all know that money speaks much louder than any perceived crime issues, especially because that kind of money can pretty much obliterate any concerns that one might have about them. Sometimes it’s just about how much the organization sucks that prevent people from wanting to join it. Some teams (Chicago Bears, ahem!) just can’t get out of their own way and others, even though more successful, have a reputation as a place that it isn’t fun to be there. This should have been Rosenthal’s point, if he even actually had one.
  14. Rod Carews Birthday
    For the right (low low) price, sure. It would be a flyer on a potentially useful piece. Low risk. I wouldn't trade anything more than a flyer back for him.
  15. Rod Carews Birthday
    Oh, payroll most certainly does matter. The way it matters most is the ability to make mistakes and then recover from them. If Ohtani tanks or gets hurt, the Dodgers have the kind of cash flow that enables them to pay him off, ignore it, and move on. If Correa tanks (for a lot less money), it’s a much greater drag on the Twins ability to continue to invest and compete. A contract like the Dodgers/Ohtani contract, which would still be too risky for a smaller market team, just exacerbates an already apparent issue. I am also a fan of spending other people’s money, so I wish that the Twins would support a higher payroll, but I don’t think it’s entirely fair to say that ownership doesn’t care to invest in winning. The inherent combination of much greater population base and nationalization of the fan base gives a team like the Dodgers a huge built in advantage. It essentially makes their cash flow bulletproof — so much so that they would have to try to screw it up, no matter how much money they defer into the future. The players and owners have agreed to the current system, but that doesn’t make it right or fair for everyone, as there is less interest in competitiveness than in just maximizing the league’s dollars to reinvest. Unfortunately, this makes those dollars even more concentrated in a few areas.
  16. Rod Carews Birthday
    I understand that the idea came from Ohtani and that it's within the rules. However, that set of rules is severely skewed toward teams that have a ready (nearly) unending stream of cash coming in. For the Dodgers to commit to that kind of money in the future at worst may make it a little uncomfortable for them, but I doubt it. In essence, they're getting their player, paying him a pittance now in order to artificially deflate their payroll, add more, and avoid some luxury tax hit, while deferring costs to later, when there may be no luxury tax to pay. For a mid or lower market team to do this requires a scary leap of faith that the money will be there in the future, which as we've seen this year, it may not. It's why Bill Gates buying a new Mercedes (or the company) isn't a big deal, but if I buy one, I am concerned about the payments and that may make me buy a car that sells for less money. In my case, it doesn't hurt me, because I'm not competing with Bill Gates in anything, but in the Dodgers/Twins case, it interferes with fair competition and makes an even more uneven playing field.
  17. Rod Carews Birthday
    As much as we all like to hang onto every asset that we have, the Twins have to ask themselves whether they are better off with Polanco/Kepler/Farmer/Velasquez on the team (given the apparent financial constraints for payroll totals) or are they better off freeing up $20M in order to pay a pretty good free agent starter. Alternatively, can they trade for one, but a similar cost/reward analysis holds. They don't need to trade all of them, but they probably need to trade one or more of them in order for the roster to make more sense moving forward.
  18. Rod Carews Birthday
    Never to this degree and the one that is even moderately close, we all make fun of when it is Bobby Bonilla Day.
  19. Rod Carews Birthday
    I am thrilled for Ohtani! Good for him. He was a very hot commodity and he parlayed that into a ridiculous amount of money. We would all do that and should all be that lucky. HOWEVER, this is a terrible precedent. Yes, I know that it’s just a more extreme example of things that big market teams have been doing all along, but when done at this scale, it is quite offensive. If I have this right, the Dodgers will pay him a relative pittance for the next ten years to free up cash and avoid additional luxury tax implications, and then later (when the tax is gone?) pay him the rest of his contract — as if the Dodgers were in some dire straights that they needed the financial flexibility. Yes, I know that the CBA says it’s legal and that any team, including the Twins could do it. Just because you can use the letter of the law to skirt the spirit of the law doesn’t make it OK (unless apparently you’re a politician, but I digress). Again, the Dodgers (the rich team), who pretty much print money, just got richer. I’m reasonably sure that no one can do anything about it, as at very least the Dodgers would tie it up in court until the contract is over. It is things like this that make me think that MLB has absolutely no interest in the long term health of their sport. Hopefully, this doesn’t all work out happily for the Dodgers. There are injuries and ineffectiveness, both from Ohtani and others on the team that could de-rail the World Series express, but I certainly like (dislike) their odds of success.
  20. Rod Carews Birthday
    Yes please, but I’m not in a huge hurry. Give them another year. Yes, I know if they become an MVP candidate the price goes up, but if they don’t develop they also don’t do us any good and they cost us payroll. There are question marks about all of them. I think that next winter would be a good time to do more extensions. By then (we hope) the TV contract issues will have resolved and we will know quite a bit more about what we have in these young players (and others). In this scenario, Julien and Ryan look like bargains. The others I’m not so sure yet.
  21. Rod Carews Birthday
    Bravo! Here's to the guys that make it all possible, in every way!
  22. Rod Carews Birthday
    I have more hope for Balazovic than Gordon actually. His experience as a reliever is still really minimal at this point, so he has the potential to get better as he pitchs out of the pen -- especially in low leverage, as that's a good spot for a developing pitcher (plus he's cheap). I might be in the minority on this, but I've pretty much written off Gordon. If I'm the Twins he becomes a throw-in on a trade, kind of like Rooker a couple of years ago in the Rogers/Paddack trade. Yes, he was hurt last year, but he had absolutely nothing working prior to the injury either, and I think Austin Martin has much, much more upside. I'm hoping Martin grabs CF and runs with it, as I'm assuming minimal contribution there from Buxton.
  23. Rod Carews Birthday
    I'm going to be pretty shocked to see anyone willing to take on both Polanco and Kepler's salary in the same deal, plus I'm not sure how Mesa, jr. moves the needle. This seems like a non-starter from both sides of the trade actually.
  24. Rod Carews Birthday
    What do you suppose the upper limit would be for payroll to start to really hinder teams like the Yankees and Dodgers?
  25. Rod Carews Birthday
    I like this trade. It probably represents something pretty reasonable in terms of cost and return. Unfortunately, many of us have a very inflated idea of what our players are worth and therefore only want to trade anyone for an "impact" player. If we want an impact player, we have two choices, either trade an impact player (Lewis, Julien, etc.) for another one, OR trade a package of guys to a team that needs more players and is willing to give up an potential impact player. Since we have major reluctance to trade from our players with the most value then we have to put together a package. As someone said before, we have to give up something to get something. On the team in its current iteration, the place of most strength is definitely middle infield. It could be argued that we have more talent there than anyone else in the league. If we can't trade anyone from that group, then close up shop and stop trying. Based on age, health, and effectiveness, Polanco is probably the easiest to shop, and this is the time when we really benefit from the team friendly extension he signed a few years back - he's also relatively inexpensive for the team acquiring him, and thus increasing his value and attractiveness as a trade chip.
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