Rod Carews Birthday

I’m one of those “trade him for a bucket of balls” guys, although in my defense, I said maybe two buckets. We need to take a collective deep breath and wait on this decision. IF he continues to hit like he has the past few weeks, then it probably makes sense to pick up the option, whether that is to realize excess value in a trade or whether to keep him to play next year. However, prior to this little uptick, he has spent the better part of three years as a pumpkin at the plate. Is it possible that he was dealing with some injury issues at the beginning of this season? Sure it is, but it seems doubtful that he was dealing with said issues for most of the past three years. Part of my reasoning for not bringing him back is that we have other corner outfield types that would likely put up as good as or better numbers for a lesser price. No, we don’t know that Larnach is going to work out. No, we don’t know that Wallner won’t have a sophomore slump next year. No, we don’t know if Lewis or Martin will switch to the outfield because of a glut of middle infielders. No, we don’t know if Emmanuel Rodriguez will live up to the hype in a year or two. HOWEVER, having Max Kepler in a starting role in the OF with mediocre (at best) production keeps us from have the space on the roster and in the lineup to find out about all of those other players — any one of which is likely to be better in the long run. For right now, Max, keep hitting the way you have been. It helps the team and gets you a better contract for next year, no matter where that is!

I was one of the biggest cheerleaders on the trade Kepler club, I believe that my wishful offer was for two bags of balls instead of just one. If only the trade deadline were a month later. . . . sigh. . . .maybe three. I’m happy for the production, but I certainly don’t trust it to stay. I’m thinking that Kepler just really wants to stay a Twin. If his hot streak had come a little earlier, he would have likely been traded as someone would be interested. This way, it becomes a question of whether next year’s option gets picked up. I’m hoping not as I think there are younger players with plenty of upside to try out. At this point Wallner gets written into the lineup in pen and Gallo is certainly gone (maybe sooner than next year????). I haven’t given up on Larnach yet, and who knows what the future is for Lewis, Martin, Rodriguez, et al. I really hope he continues this hot streak through the playoffs, but I’m not holding my breath.

Completely agree over the long and mid-term. However, sometimes smoke and mirrors can serve a pitcher like DK very well in the short term. The Twins are due for a lucky, seemingly silly, bit of good luck. Maybe this is that time and regression can be postponed.

I'm pretty sure that I agree with you, and indeed nuance is crucial to have the right perspective. Twins Daily generally does strike a pretty good balance, but frequently some of the arguments go off the rails into the land of "Fire them all! Trade all the players! Anybody would be better than this bunch of clowns! Move the franchise somewhere else because we won't put up with it!" Hyperbole on my part, but I'm sure you get the picture. I live near Chicago, so I deal with this mentality all the time unfortunately. The target is definitely not you. Sorry if it seemed that way. I'll go back to yelling at the clouds in the sky now!

What? Who is this Gallo you are speaking of? No one has brought him up before. Is he the new kid they just brought in?

I will agree that I thought that this team was capable of a better record, but being in first place, while a little lucky to reside in the ALC, is an excellent place to be. If we're in first place, I can be pleased with that fact. It provides joy to many fans, including me. It is also a fact that the pitching rotation, which is most of the reason the Twins are in first place, is also the result of decisions made by the front office, so apparently they don't suck at everything. I'm certain that I haven't agreed with everything they have done, but taken as a whole, we're in a position to be successful. So now that that has been established, what is the magic number at which fans should be pleased? Is it .500? is it .550? .600? How about .750? That's a 120 win season! Now that would be something! Reading people's comments I sometimes feel like anything short of 162-0 wouldn't be good enough and the outrage machine would still be fully engaged because we weren't winning games by enough runs. Back to the original post, relief pitchers are far too unpredictable to fret over a seemingly logical choice made before the season started. If we are going to do that, we must also fully rejoice the choices that do work out, like signing Stewart or Castro.

Some would say that’s not settling. It’s an improvement that should be embraced. The fact that we are not in one of those dry spells makes me quite happy. I don’t want to be KC or Oakland.

This year is certainly competitive. Last year was until we were putting an ad in the paper for players who weren’t injured. Do you recall the early 1980s, the late 1990s, or the early 2010s? That was uncompetitive.

This is the key to the equation. If you really think there is someone out there who is readily identifiable and readily available to come in and run the team that would be a better choice, firing Falvey makes complete sense. But if there were those people out there, don't you think that at least 15 other clubs would have hired them by now? It's just not that easy and I lived through some mighty lean years that I really don't want to go back and re-visit. I don't love Falvey and Levine nor all of their moves (and lack of moves), but I don't need to if they continue to keep the team competitive.

And yet, that 1987 team with all of that energy, passion, and fire managed to win only 85 games. I know and remember that team well. Only three guys were substantially above average bats (Hrbek, Bruno, Puckett) and four regulars in "yikes" territory. Their rotation was Blyleven, Viola, and who knows. They were a great Dome team but an atrocious road team. Hardly a juggernaut. As fans, we tend to have revisionist history about teams, when in reality, they were just pretty good and got hot at the right time. They only had to win two series to go all the way, and they did it. With all of the rounds of wildcards, it's a little harder now. The division is not good. It wasn't great in 1987 either. Their 1987 division winning record would have been fifth in the American League East. They can't do anything about that except win the division and hope for the best in the playoffs. Then you never know what will happen. I'm not saying that they are going to win the WS this year, but they are not the poor team that people describe. In 1987, a mediocre regular season got them pretty far and even though they weren't a dynasty, I can still celebrate and embrace the World Series title that went with it.

Probably my favorite short term Twins cameo of all time. He was just entertaining and fun to have on the team. I just wish that we could have had him in his prime, when he was really good!

I have to admit that I am largely indifferent to the existence of Falvey, Levine, and Baldelli. I don’t think that all of the poor play this season by the offense nor the great starting pitching is really due to them. I also don’t think that the recent resurgence of hitting and fade of the pitching is due to them either. They have made some trades that I liked at the time but now hate, as well as some trades that turned out well. Much has been made of the “over-reliance” on sabermetric data. I hate to disappoint peoples pre-conceived notions, but ALL teams are relying on sabermetrics and data more than in the past. This is not a Twins-only issue. One of the reasons that people think this is the case is that they talk about it, whereas previous iterations of the front office and manager used some of the same information but didn’t have a fancy name for it. All in all, I believe that Falvey, Levine, and Baldelli are neither geniuses nor idiots. IF we move on from the current leadership group of the team, we need to be prepared for two things. First of all, there will likely be a change in philosophy/direction of the organization. That may be a great thing or a terrible thing, we just don’t know. No matter what, the effects of that change will take time to see, likely four or five years. The change will not be instant, even though an upward blip or downward blip may happen in the meantime. The “sustainable” part of the equation doesn’t happen right away. Second of all, the results may not be what we think they will be. We are also in no-man’s land as a team. We are not world-beaters with all stars at every position and on a path to win 110 games, nor are we the Athletics or the Royals. We say that we are tired of losing playoff games (and we are!) and that we only are happy if they get to the World Series (I was born during the first one and enjoyed two victories many years later, so maybe I’m lucky). However, if things go poorly and we become the Athletics or Royals, we would be absolutely thrilled with a division title and a playoff birth. Everyone needs to understand that calling for change means that we could be losing our current version of “pretty good” for “pretty terrible” in pursuit of “almost perfect”. I’m ok with pretty good, because 1987 showed me that sometimes pretty good will get you pretty far.

Wow! This is the first time in a couple of months that we are witnessing actual good hitting by the hitters on the Twins! There are some very impressive numbers in the mix right now. Keep it up. Take the pressure off of the pitchers.

I know that I have read on this very TD board that people don't want the Twins to make a trade for the sake of making a trade, in fact, it was a fear voiced pretty loudly. Now we have hand-wringing that the Twins didn't make enough moves (they made one - Lopez for Floro). Sounds like we are definitely living up to being a typical online forum. I would also have liked a trade for another bullpen arm and/or a RH bat, but sometimes things just don't line up, plus after giving up a lot last deadline, they were probably a little cautious about doing that a second time. I am guessing that their were some attempts to make a trade but that ultimately the price to be paid was too high. . . like Larnach + for a mid-level reliever. That seems too high for me. They also probably (foolishly) are hoping that Kepler keeps hitting like he has for the last month (which has been very good). It's certainly possible, but seems a little unlikely. Correa/Buxton et al from the right side re-discovering how to hit would indeed take care of the offensive situation and despite what some think, their bullpen is a long ways from bad. I know it is hard to trust the Twins' brain trust, but they do have a great deal more information than we do. I am hoping that they can find a way to give Keuchel a shot at the MLB team. Sending someone down (or to the IL) and letting him get a few innings in the bullpen or with a spot start could be very enlightening (or disheartening) as to his potential moving forward. Keuchel definitely knew how to pitch at a high MLB level at one point, which is probably more than a lot of the other potential bullpen arms, so he seems to be worth a shot. Now, let's go Twins! There are ballgames to win!

Seems like a trade with a lot of factors involved, and many good ones. I think we get a little bit of upside for the rest of this year, while Lopez gets to be closer to home. I don't know that it's a big needle mover, but it's good for a lot of reasons, not just baseball. Good luck Jorge! Say hi to our friend Luis there!

Julien is playing very well. Let's hope it continues and he makes the ROY race interesting. That said, he got a pretty late start to get universal support. Most of the time, ROY candidates are up almost right away and getting on the voters' radar early in the season. Julien is going to have to continue to be very flashy to get people in the national media (who vote on this stuff) to notice and even make it close.

Hooray! This is what we were all hoping for with him. Let’s hope the wrist issues are firmly behind him and that he can keep building on this season. I don’t know if his mid-term future is 1B or OF, but if he keeps hitting like this there will be a place for him.

Somebody needs to go from the current LH OF bunch, and I think I could make a good case for trading any of them, but the whole thing hinges on Kepler. If you are keeping him (picking up his option for next year), then you really need to trade one of Larnach or Wallner. Neither are a CFer and Gallo being gone next year only opens up one spot. I don’t think either Larnach or Wallner will be stars, but letting them whither in the wind takes advantage of neither their playing ability nor their perceived trade value. They just flounder into nothingness. Simply put, one of them needs to go unless Kepler isn’t back. The other odd man out here is Nick Gordon. I think he is an OK player, but he has become redundant. Castro has replaced him on the roster with more flexibility (options), better defense, and similar offense. Gordon did a fine job as the emergency replacement in CF last year, but Castro does it better. I don’t think he has tremendous value, but you might be able to flip him for a reliever or use him as an added piece to trade for either a better reliever or a RH hitter.

The problem with the many proposals to trade for a player that would improve the Twins is that no one wants to give anything up — or severely overvalues the trade chips and wants to trade Miranda and Winder for Ohtani. Let’s face it, trading our 21st or 24th best prospect isn’t going to get much. I think Candelario would be a fine player to have, but I don’t see how we find room for Kiriloff, Correa, Julian, Lewis, Polanco, Farmer, Solano, Castro AND Candelario. There just isn’t space on the roster. Granted, they won’t all be healthy at the same time, but if they are on the team, you want as many reps and AB’s for Lewis and Julian as possible. If Candelario comes on board, then someone needs to leave, and it might need to be someone that we are attached to.

Oh yeah. . . and YAY! Let’s get them signed and play ball!

There are a few certainties in the world of baseball contracts. 1. Everyone wants all of the $$ they can get (of course, we all want that). 2. It is impossible to think we understand what is going on in Scott Boras’ head with regard to contract negotiations. He has a well-deserved reputation as being very good at his job from the players’ point of view. With a high first round pick, however, there really isn’t that much room to maneuver. I’m sure he was waiting to see what was left and would like all of it to go to his client. His means to get there is anyone’s guess. Signing at the last minute, since the time window is short, doesn’t hurt anyone — the player or the club. As a bonus, if you want to establish a great relationship with an agent, Boras would definitely be the one to do that with, so making everyone happy and feeling good about the situation would be an excellent development all the way around.

I'd be a lot more excited if he were an outfielder, but he would be an OK addition. No positional flexibility does make their infield even messier than it is now, but his right-handedness works for him, as does there seeming to be reasons for his decreased output. Maybe Larnach for Mountcastle straight up? Trading a guy with flaws for a guy with different flaws. . . .

One problem with this whole situation is trying to figure out each player's trade value. With Kepler, even though he is hitting well lately, it is a three year track record of being not very good, but never completely falling off the table. So, there probably isn't upside but their appears to be a reasonable floor. Doesn't scream high trade value but could be useful to a team really needing a decent defensive OF. With Gallo, who has been pretty bad since May, there is the tantalizing power that he flashes once in awhile, which gets people excited, but his floor seems lower than Keplers even if his ceiling is more enticing. Miranda. . . great trade value when we didn't want to trade him this past winter, but not much now as he has seeming forgotten how to hit. Larnach might have more trade value than we think because of the perception that he has been "blocked" at the major league level and has had stretches of performance that amount to a slightly below average MLB hitter at the beginning of his career -- not a ringing endorsement, but he seems like he could get better with time and opportunity. Finally, Wallner. . . he might have the most value based on his minor league track record and he has been pretty solid in SSS this season in the majors -- but why would you trade that? Isn't that what you're looking for? Based on all of this, SOMETHING needs to happen. As an aside, I think that the defensive value (or lack thereof) is overstated among the outfielders. Kepler is solid, but not amazing, and has been a little up and down this year - he's not winning (and hasn't' won) a gold glove. Gallo suffers from "guy who got a gold glove when he was hitting good because he was solid in the field" syndrome. He came here and people expected vintage Byron Buxton, and what they got was another version of Kepler -- less range, better arm. Wallner and Larnach are portrayed by some as butchers in the field, which they are not. Larnach moves OK for a big guy and while Wallner doesn't have great range, he does have an excellent arm to bail him out when he needs it. Neither will win a gold glove, but both can certainly be league average defenders.

I think it boils down to what they are thinking about Kepler's option for next year. If they are planning to pick it up, then definitely trade one of Larnach/Wallner (and likely Miranda), since their time has come, for better or worse. If Kepler is back, that leaves only one spot to be filled with Gallo's departure. On the other hand, if they would remove Gallo or Kepler (or both) at the deadline or through DFA, keeping both Larnach and Wallner would be in order and inserting them in the lineup immediately would be the best option. It seems likely that they could hold their own now and in the future. The team would also find out for certain (or as certainly as possible) what next year might look like by giving them development/playing time in the majors for the rest of this year. Miranda is another issue, as he doesn't seem to have a spot to play in the infield, with Kiriloff entrenched at first and Lewis the likely third baseman. The pipeline of players moving forward in the infield would seem to leave him as the odd man looking in, so trading him might make sense as well. Unfortunately, his value has really cratered. Castro is probably the insurance policy for all of these positions (and maybe CF as well) in case someone stops hitting/fielding effectively. His ceiling isn't super high but the floor would prevent a disaster.

Solution. If your name is Carlos Correa, you play. If you have an OPS over .750 and are healthy (and fit the positions), you play. If you have an OPS of less than that, be available to come off the bench for a spot start or substitution. Problem solved. I'm not sure they have started four infielders at the same time all year with positive hitting marks. When/if these levels are met, the new bar becomes .800 OPS. Play Ball!