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Rod Carews Birthday

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Everything posted by Rod Carews Birthday

  1. Rod Carews Birthday
    Something is brewing. This is public posturing and may or may not be entirely true. Give it a week. I don't know for sure if anything will happen, but there is something going on.
  2. Rod Carews Birthday
    There was an article earlier this week about fans undervaluing Ober and Ryan as starters. I think this is further proof that we shouldn't do that. I think they are both solid, if inexperienced #3 pitchers who have some headroom left to grow and be better. I doubt that they will become full blown aces (whatever that means), but it seems likely that they could makeup for some of the quality innings thrown by Gray last year and potentially slot into a starting role in the playoffs. I personally find it fascinating to see all of the trade proposals for us to give up the farm for other teams' starters, most of whom have very similar stats to our own guys.
  3. Rod Carews Birthday
    Thank goodness for that!
  4. Rod Carews Birthday
    Hey! I’ve got an old treadmill. Do you think they would be open to barter?
  5. Rod Carews Birthday
    You will love it. The HOF is really cool. Be warned, it's a small town so things will get exceedingly crowded.
  6. Rod Carews Birthday
    This. If I had to guess, one of those guys could wind up being pretty good and pretty valuable this year - not lights out, but useful. Balazovic has no time: it's sink or swim for him. That's why you flood the zone with relief options so that you can pick the hot hand and go with it. As we found out last year, you don't always pick correctly, but they will find some live arms to make things happen. I'm happy we're not counting on "three of these four guys have to make it this year". That would be a substantially bigger problem. Having a base of Duran, Jax, Theilbar, and Brock Stewart gives the team some flexibility that they didn't necessarily have in past years, which is why I'm not overly panicked about the bullpen.
  7. Rod Carews Birthday
    I don't completely disagree with your statement about not investing not being a great choice. However, one of the benefits (and risks) of a young and talented team is that they will continue to improve. Often those guys who are young and unproven wind up being better than the guys you lost. It's definitely not a sure thing, but it is also not an unmitigated disaster. There will be some regression, but there is an equal chance that the growth will make up for it. That didn't work out for Cleveland last year, but it surely did back in the 1986 offseason for the hometown nine. I'm not saying that's where this group is headed (yet) but I have learned to never say never. In my former line of work, people used to panic every year about how we would replace so and so, the all-state player, the section leader, the drum major. Magically, there was always someone there to take their place and much more frequently than not, be a strong contributor -- until they graduated and we got to panic (needlessly) all over again. In a good program, and arguably, the Twins have a very good feeder program on the farm, there are individuals who can and will step up. That's why you develop them in the first place, and why people are often reluctant to trade them. Sometimes you just need to take a couple of deep breaths and move on.
  8. Rod Carews Birthday
    For now, I would be thrilled for Austin Martin to just be the guy who hits and fields well enough to bridge the gap to the next really good CF for the Twins. Let's bring him up, give him a job, and see how he does. I think he could do just fine, as long as we can temper the expectations that he is going to go out there and field as well as MAT or Buxton and hit like Lewis. A league average offensive season from a rookie with positional flexibility is huge.
  9. Rod Carews Birthday
    A lot going on out there, even if it doesn't consist of the signing(s) we would all like. Hopefully the agreement/arrangement can result in some certainty regarding rights payments for the Twins so they can move ahead with firm plans for this year. As for the White Sox and stadium building, I wouldn't hold my breath right now. The Bears are in the middle of negotiations/plans to build a stadium and I'm sure that they are far ahead of the Sox in the pecking order. Even on the Bears stadium plan, a lot has gone silent recently as the suburb where they have land isn't just laying down and opening their wallets. There's a lot to be settled before either of those become reality, especially the Sox. The stadium itself is one of the last "concrete monstrosity" type stadiums built, as after that, most stadiums were more "boutique" like and interesting. As such, I'm sure that the Sox would like to get in on the action. When it was originally built, it was pretty awful and pretty spartan, but some of the remodeling jobs over the years have made into a much better place from which to watch baseball. I don't love it, but I think it would be a shame to demolish it.
  10. Rod Carews Birthday
    No. He just hasn’t been good long enough. Keep up the production, play more games, and he’ll get there.
  11. Rod Carews Birthday
    No. I’m not able to take the kind of punishment that goes with junior high kids!
  12. Rod Carews Birthday
    The question is, when you look at his career body of work, was he the best (or nearly so) at his position in his generation of players. If that answer is yes, then he is certainly on a HOF track. If the answer is no, then he'll get some votes and stick around for a couple of years but never be close (aka Torii Hunter). He's going to need to continue to compile for a few more years to know for sure. I would say this, if he is still earning his salary by the end of his contract, he'll definitely be on the right path. As fans, we give a lot more weight to what a player did in the past year or two, and often don't look at the overall picture. Hall of Fame voters are more likely to look at the big picture, as well as peak years and longevity. I don't know if he will get in or not, but he's the most likely Twin at this point and I think it will be close.
  13. Rod Carews Birthday
    I'm a retired band director. That makes me a bit of an optimist! You have to be if you're going to listen to little Johnny attempt to play the oboe!
  14. Rod Carews Birthday
    There are certainly better pitchers in the league than Ober and Ryan, but I think they are written off too often. I think we are undervaluing them as pitchers. For example: Who would you get more excited about? Pitcher A: 27 year old pitched 144 innings at 125 ERA+ Pitcher B: 26 year old pitched 190 innnings at 108 ERA+ Pitcher C: 27 year old pitched 177 innings at 97 ERA+ Pitcher D: 27 year old pitched 161 innings at 95 ERA+ The obvious standout here is Pitcher A, but we would love to trade for pitcher B. Pitcher C and Pitcher D seem like the same guy to me if it's all about what have you done lately (like last year), but I think most would prefer we had Pitcher C on the team over Pitcher D Pitcher A is Bailey Ober. Pitcher B is Logan Gilbert. Pitcher C is Dylan Cease. Pitcher D is Joe Ryan.
  15. Rod Carews Birthday
    Yuck. That really is awful! I hope they make him clean it up. Sorry. I digress. I put more blame on the injury Ryan had last season than you do, and that's OK. I just think he never really found his rhythm again after that. I would also like to see some more innings out of Ober. I think they are both better than we give them credit for being.
  16. Rod Carews Birthday
    I don't disagree that we aren't that likely to see a huge spike in development, but I do think that both of them have a little more left in the tank in terms of ceiling. Both of them are still on the upward/building side of their MLB careers, so I'll gladly take the over (from last year) on both of their performances for 2024. For Ober, it mostly has to do with health, which could easily happen. For Ryan, people forget that prior to his injury his performance was as good as any pitcher on the staff. Avoiding injury and being more forthright about it are also key to his success. A lot of tea is being spilled about replacing Sonny Gray in the rotation. Yes. I think he was a very good pitcher, but a few more good innings out of Ryan and Ober, combined with some solid performance from Paddack and Varland (or his replacement) can fully replace him. Remember, the Twins' record in games Gray pitched actually wasn't nearly as good as one might expect by looking at his raw stats. I think we got everything that we needed to/were likely to out of Sonny Gray and don't really think he will ever duplicate what he did last season either.
  17. Rod Carews Birthday
    I think that this was a really cool thing to happen. Since I was only three years old, I've heard about it many times from my older siblings and cousins and it is a tale that they tell with great enthusiasm. I'm guessing that the "unwritten rules of baseball" guys wouldn't have liked it very much!
  18. Rod Carews Birthday
    I think that we criminally underrate both Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober. They both have a solid track record of success as well above average mlb starters. If you take average starter as a #3 starter, that puts both in the #2 to #3 range. Which you think is better is a matter of some split (and reasonable) opinions. Why are they underrated? I think it's because neither was heralded as a great prospect and we have seen the growing pains along with the good results. We see the results but wonder about health/durability in Ober and consistency/smoke&mirrors in Ryan because we assume we can't have nice things. We've only seen Pablo Lopez' good year. Somehow it always seems like another team's best pitchers are sure things on the mound while ours just have a decent chance for success. That's mostly a matter of perspective, as I'm guessing that our best seem very daunting for other teams just like theirs do for us. I would love it if we could pick up another good pitcher, but I definitely don't think we are in trouble going into the season with who we have. The odds of Ober or Ryan developing into an even better pitcher are pretty solid. Patience. . . .
  19. Rod Carews Birthday
    "Unfortunately, this year's free-agent shortstop talent collection (headlined by Tim Anderson and Amed Rosario) is shallower than the kiddie pool that led to Betty Carver's husband's demise in What's Eating Gilbert Grape. [Ed. note: Look, film is the literature of our generation and I'm not going to stop a writer from alluding to a reasonably important one. Me, personally, I don't know how shallow that pool was, and I apologize if this reference constitutes a spoiler. Google tells me the movie's been out long enough that it's your own fault if you wanted to see it but haven't. Tim Anderson and Amed Rosario are rough headliners for a free-agent positional class, is the point.] " I laughed so hard at this that I couldn't finish reading! Great stuff!
  20. Rod Carews Birthday
    Exactly. If you think a guy has a chance to really be a star, you have to hang onto him unless you get someone else who you think is more likely to be a star, or one who fits your needs better. In this case, a pitcher might fit the Twins' needs even more than Rodriguez, but so far I can't find one available that I think is any more of a sure thing than Rodriguez is. I'm guessing that is what is happening to the Twins front office as well. If the upside for Rodriguez is just "solid/good" with an occasional flash of brilliance (Eddie Rosario, Max Kepler, Danny Ford, Matt Lawton, Brian Dozier) then it's OK to trade him for something more helpful. However, if you think the upside is in the "multiple all-star/MVP" category (Puckett, Oliva, non-injured Morneau) you have to keep him around because it would be very painful to watch and probably detrimental to your team. For me, Rodriguez is in that second category, which makes him too intriguing to trade.
  21. Rod Carews Birthday
    It would be pretty weird if Arraez were actually on the market, but depending on their current (at this moment) financial situation, Miami might be forced to do it. I say lets acquire Luzardo so that it will take a little bit of heat off of them financially so that they can keep him! No. I don't think we need to trade for Arraez, although it would certainly be a first for a player to win the batting title for a team, win a batting title for a new team, and then possibly win a batting title for his first team. That would be really fun!
  22. Rod Carews Birthday
    Sometimes the true downside to a trade is the inability to recover from it if things go badly. Best example ever. . . the infamous Vikings Herschel Walker trade. The Vikings survived but by no means was it a good idea. Contrast that with a proposal to send Polanco and a lower prospect (or two) to Toronto for Manoah. If he can be fixed, even partially, he's a very valuable commodity. If not, he might be done with baseball entirely. Trading Polanco means losing one of the longest serving Twins who has been very valuable over the years and is a very solid veteran presence on the team. However, he plays the position that is inarguably the deepest position on the team in second base, making it the easiest to recover from if the trade goes badly. I would say that the Twins are uniquely suited to take this chance. It's potentially boom or bust, but I think it is worth taking the chance.
  23. Rod Carews Birthday
    I’m going to dream out loud a little here. Keep Julien. Keep Lee. Hope that Kiriloff recovers and starts to mash — and trade Kiriloff. Then you move Julien to first, Lee at second, Correa and Lewis to round out the infield. Make an in-season trade of Kiriloff and Polanco/Farmer for pitching. Certainly will need to liberally add prospects. . . . . OK. Back to reality! I agree with other posters in that I don’t want to trade either Lee or Julien, but am willing to trade either for the right pitcher. If forced to decide between the two, I keep Julien. He has a partial year of MLB experience and has proven himself in it. I also think that his ceiling is a little bit higher. Lee is likely to do fine at the MLB level also, but that is less of a sure thing. I also am of the camp that says Lee will be very solid with the upside of an all-star year or two. My comp here would be Gary Gaetti - different player but similar career. I think Julien has that plus the possibility that he could become a more perennial all-star, MVP vote kind of player. My comp here is a poor man’s Tony Olivia. He won’t be as good, but that’s his path. . . . at least in my dreams!
  24. Rod Carews Birthday
    I do think that Mauer was the best catcher of his generation. The numbers bear it out, and in the case of catchers, even the career numbers. His lack of postseason experience isn’t remotely his fault. By that definition, Rod Carew wasn’t very good either (I know he had more, but not a ton). I think it is definitely nitpicking to declare a guy with three gold gloves to be average behind the plate. Yes, Molina was a better defensive receiver, but how much better would he have to be to make up for the offensive differences? I live in (near) Chicago, and when Harold Baines candidacy was being presented, the fans there lauded him like he was the second coming of Roberto Clemente. Baines is certainly a lesser candidate than Mauer, and yet we as Twins fans can’t seem to get all the way behind him.
  25. Rod Carews Birthday
    Pitching injuries are an unpredictable lot, so I think the best bet is to just put guys out there as much as possible and try to build some depth behind them. If reasonably healthy (a big if, but somebody has to be healthy!), Lopez should push 200 innings because he's that good and we want him out there as much as possible. Ryan should be able to push to 180 or so, as should Ober. That leaves Varland, who could get to 150 and Paddack, who I think will be allowed to push 150 as well. Now, at least one of those guys will get hurt, but I don't see any really big limitations being placed on any of them. The depth behind them at this point is pretty thin, which is why I think we'll see a trade for a starter so Varland becomes the depth much like Ober was last season. I also think they will sign a cheap, journeyman, AAAA guy or formerly good guy like Dallas Keuchel just for some insurance at AAA. Outside of that, we're down to SWR, who doesn't seem ready; Festa, who may be ready, and old friend Randy Dobnak.
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