LA Vikes Fan

Well said. I'm cautiously optimistic that the Twins can stay in the Division race through the end of the season and I think they have a 50/50 chance of winning the division. That number is subject to adjustment Wednesday depending on the results at the Deadline - I'm assuming they get at least some pitching help. This beats the crap out of last year. That's the comparison - 2019 is ancient history with a different roster, different ball, and different necessary type of play. Nelson Cruz carried us in 2019 with help from principally Miguel Sano, among others. Last I looked Nelson Cruz couldn't carry his own jock (Father time remains undefeated) and Sano is out. Take that 2019 roster and we finish 4th. Hey guys, the Twins are playing meaningful games in August and it looks like we'll be playing meaning games in September. Let's enjoy the ride while we can, before the Vikings tease again before they collapse and crush all of our souls.

Polanco is arguably our most consistent, "best" hitter this year. Good in the clutch, good RBI man, good run producer. He also seems to have found a solid defensive home at 2B. His abilities also make us able to have guys like Steer as a trade chip. Frankly, I would put him in the 4 hole in the order and just leave him there for the rest of the season. He is clearly part of the core for the next 2-3 years. We're lucky to have him, and on a team friendly contract to boot.

I like the ideas, not thrilled with Syndergaard. Substitute Blake Snell even if we need to add a non top 30 prospect and I’m in.

Agreed. We aren’t trading Correa. We can’t get much for him because of his contract and it sends the worst possible message to the team. Unfortunately, I don’t think we’ll get much at the deadline since we don’t have much to trade. Wallner and Steer aren’t enough for high end pitching and we don’t have much MiLB pitching to interest anyone. Maybe Larnach gets us something but I think he’s pretty much the only good trade chip we have unless we trade Kirilloff. I don’t think Miranda is going anywhere.

Correct. Miranda is 23, he can improve defensively. More importantly, so far he has shown that he can hit - .280/.330/.462 in the last 30 games and better than that after his first 60 ABs or so. Guys who hit like this with power don't grow on trees. Plus, this his his first go around, chances are this will improve. AND we have 5-6 years of control. He stays unless we get a pitcher of similar quality with 4-5 years of control. Same for Kirilloff - .306/.362/.459 over the last 30 games. Those 2 are the middle of the order for 2023 and beyond. I'd trade Larnach (but only for top end starter), and I would part with Celestino, Steer, and Wallner in the right trades. I'd even think about trading Ober or Winder but not both. For me, Miranda and Kirilloff are untouchable unless the return is a quality starting pitcher with multiple years of control and that ain't happening.

I agree with t he sentiment but the lineup changes ever day because we are at least one middle of the order bat short. Love to see us trade for Josh Bell, put him at DH/1B and the 4 hole and run out this lineup - Arraez, Correa, Buxton, Bell, Polanco, Kiriloff, Miranda/Urshela, Kepler, Sanchez/Hamilton.

Unless they work out a deal before Sunday, which seems unlikely, we should expect that Sano will be back with the big club and probably Garlick optioned to St. Paul. I just don't see another way to do this given our need for Celestino to stay on the Twins to play centerfield when Buxton is the DH. If I'm right and Sano is coming up, play him. It has advantages both in deciding what to do with him for the rest of the season and auditioning him as a throw in trade piece on other deals. He can DH or play 1B 5 days a week for 2 weeks and we can see if he goes on one of those 2nd half tears and helps us or is a DFA candidate on July 31.

i agree except I would be willing to deal Ober in a deal for a starting pitcher. To me, the other 3 would only go in a spectacular deal for us (not happening).

I disagree with the other posters. I think this is a potentially high upside, low downside deal once Mahle gets away from that bandbox in Cincinnati. As I've said in other posts, we need to get past our attachment to prospects and be willing to trade quality to get quality. Particularly, we need to be willing to trade bat first corner OFs and non-SS IFs. That's where our surplus is. Mahle is the guy to get if we can't get Castillo or the price for Montas is too high. I worry less about shoulder issues with a clean MRI since frankly every pitcher in MLB has shoulder issues at some point. Elbow issues are what concerns me. Having said that, still think the offer is a little rich. I'm fine with Wallner and Martin, but I would like to keep SWR. How about substituting Raya or Varland for SWR? Or maybe Canterino? They are a little farther away from MLB so they fit the Reds' timeline better. Another thought is a straight up trade of Larnach for Mahle? That is an overpay by the Twins, but not if we can get a 2-3 year deal with Mahle as part of the trade or if the Reds throw in a non-40 pitching prospect or a catching prospect like Nelson. In each scenario, I think the Twins are trading form surplus for need. Bottom line, I think Mahle is a real target and a realistic one to boot. I hoe we get him if we don't get Castillo or Montas.

i agree that this is a complicated decision but strongly disagree with the premise that we don't have the prospect capital to get deals done. We can get a top end starter like Montas or Castillo - we just need to be willing to trade a Larnch or Miranda type PLUS (1) Ober or (2) a Steer, Wallner, and a lower level but high upside guy like CES, Julien, Sabato, Varland, etc. As for me, I would like to keep Miranda but wouldn't be opposed to moving him as the headliner package for a great return (Montas or Castillo plus a solid reliever with some remaining control). We can do the deals, we just have to be willing to give up quality. I am very open to dealing Larnach as a headline piece in a trade for starting pitching. Kirilloff is our LF for the foreseeable future because Arraez is the 1B, followed by Miranda. We all need to accept that reality. So unless we are going to trade Kepler - who won't get us much of a return - there simply is no room at the inn for Larnach to play every day. Same for Steer and Wallner. They play positions - corner OF, 2B and 3B - where we have players in place who are younger, cost controlled, and aren't going anywhere. You trade from surplus for need. Our need? Pitching, pitching and more pitching. Our surplus? Corner OF bats and guys who have good to high ceilings and can play 2B or 3B. That's who you trade. Also, let's not forget why you develop quality depth in the minors. The first and most obvious reason is to feed the MLB club, but it is not the only reason. The other reason is so you have players to trade for established MLB players on other teams in those years were you believe you have a chance to complete. I think this is one of those years and am open to using our prospect capital to improve the big club, particularly with respect to players who have more than just the rest of 2022 to offer. We all need to be willing to "let go" of some of the prospects we know and love so that we can trade them for established players who can help us right now. I personally think any Twins prospect recently graduating to MLB or still in the minors should be available except for Lewis, Ryan, Kirilloff, Duran and WInder, except that I would only move Miranda for an established MLB starter with at least 1.5 years of control and a chance of re-signing with the team. Other than that, everyone else should be available, That's the attitude I think the FO should have going into this trade deadline. I think if they have that attitude, there is no reason that this team can't put competitive trade packages together to try to get the three things that would really help (1) a quality starting pitcher like Montas or Castillo, (2) at least one quality rental reliever like Robertson, Bard, Okert, or Lopez (I would also use acquisition #1 to kick Chris Archer into the bullpen to add a second quality bullpen piece), and (3) a short-term rental bat you might have a chance of re-signing like Josh Bell. That's what we need to do and I don't think we need to "deplete the farm" to get it done.

Agreed. We can get a top end starter like Montas or Castillo - we just need to be willing to trade a Larnch or Miranda type PLUS (1) Ober or (2) a Steer, Wallner, and a lower level but with high upside guy like CES, Julien, Sabato, Varland, etc. As for me, I would like to keep Miranda but wouldn't be opposed to moving him for a great return (Montas plus a solid reliever). I am very open to dealing Larnach as a headline piece in a trade for starting pitching. Kirilloff is our LF for the foreseeable future because Arraez is the 1B, followed by Miranda. We all need to accept that reality. So unless we are going to trade Kepler - who won't get us much of a return - there simply is no room at the inn for Larnach to play every day. Same for Steer and Wallner. They play positions - corner OF, 2B and 3B - where we have players in place who are younger, cost controlled, and aren't going anywhere. You trade from surplus for need. Our need? Pitching, pitching and more pitching. Our surplus? Corner OF bats and guys who have good to high ceilings and can play 2B or 3B. That's who you trade. Also, let's not forget why you develop quality depth in the minors. The first and most obvious reason is to feed the MLB club, but it is not the only reason. The other reason is so you have players to trade for established MLB players on other teams in those years were you believe you have a chance to complete. I think this is one of those years and am open to using our prospect capital to improve the big club, particularly with respect to players who have more than just the rest of 2022 to offer. We all need to be willing to "let go" of some of the prospects we know and love so that we can trade them for established players who can help us right now. I personally think any Twins prospect recently graduating to MLB or still in the minors should be available except for Ryan, Kirilloff, Duran and WInder, except that I would only move Miranda for an established MLB starter with at least 1.5 years of control and a chance of re-signing with the team. Other than that, everyone else should be available, That's the attitude I think the FO should have going into this trade deadline.

Larnach and Canterino for Montas and AJ Puk (or Lou Trevino). Larnach and Canterino or Steer for Castillo. Enlow for Robertson or Bard. Archer to bullpen in a late inning role (adjust his contract incentives). Sands, Strotman, and a lower level non-40 man guy (Julien?) for Josh Bell and Tanner Rainey from the Nationals. Substitute Austin Martin for Larnach in above scenarios if that works; don't be afraid to substitute Martin AND Balazovic for Larnach if they would accept that. A package of Martin, Balazovic and Canterino is probably not enough for either starter.

I think Sano is definitely coming back unless they include him a package trade before Sunday. Seems unlikely. The big question is can Gordon play CF well enough to send down Celestino? If not, Garlick goes down. Sending out a pitcher isn't going to happen because we need 13 pitchers with this starting staff and bullpen. Sano is not replacing a pitcher. Personally, I think sending down Garlick is the right move. He looks like he "mashes lefties" when you look at his overall stats, but he hasn't hit much lately and we just aren't seeing a lot of LH starters. He can't right RH pitching at all. Add in the fact that he isn't much of a defensive OF and his value is really limited. Celestino isn't a great hitter either but he does add value on defense and provides the coverage we need when Buxton has to sit. Watch, an injury or trade will all of this speculation irrelevant.

Agree that at least Larnach would be part of the ask for Castillo PLUS something else. I went on baseball trade values and came away wiht Larnach plus Canterino for Castillo. By the way that same package also netted Montas plus AJ Puk from Oakland. I would do either of those two deals. What about you guys?

I I think you're right but aren't we missing one possible trade guy - Trevor Larnach? Good defensive OF, strong bat, multiple years of control left. Yeah he's now hurt but for Oakland and CIncy the year is toast any way. I agree that getting a top end pitcher will cost us a premium prospect plus one or more more solid ones. My view is that the premium prospects to consider trading, in order, are Larnach because he's duplicative of Kirilloff in LF now that Arraez is the 1B (and I hope they trade for Josh Bell and then keep him, plus we have Sano to deal with), and . . . maybe Ober or Winder but not both? No way I would trade Kirilloff, Miranda, Ryan, Jeffers, or Duran. Celestino and Steer are nice prospects but secondary pieces in a deal for a good starter, not primary ones. They might be good enough to get us a strong bullpen piece. I would make a deal for a strong starter IF Larnach would be the headline prospect or maybe if it were Winder or Ober but not 2 of those 3. It will be interesting to see what actually happens.

Lopez looks like a tough target to me - high cost, high risk. If you believe Baseball Trade Values, Larnach and Canterino gets you Montas and Puk from Oakland or Castillo from Cincinnati and we keep Steer. Larnach and Steer for Lopez is also about right. It's also much more likely that we can get a "fair" deal wiht Oakland or Cincinnati since they are likely to trade those starters with 1.5 year of control than from Miami trading a high end starter with multiple years of control. Plus, Montas and Castillo are both better than Lopez although controllable for less time. Given those assumed choices, I would much rather make a deal for Montas or Castillo. I think Lopez is too risky and out of our price range.

Honest analysis. I agree that we need one impact starter, 2 bullpen pieces, and a hitter. This Lineup needs another run producer in the number 4 spot in the order and it ain't Max Kepler and I don't think it will be Miguel Sano. Where I disagree is the idea that the choice is either to stand pat or "gut the farm" to improve the team for this year and potentially next. We have a lot of prospect capital. The value of prospect capital isn't simply to graduate people to the MLB roster over time, it's equally as important to have that so we can trade it when we need to, not just to keep it forever. More than half of these guys will never amount to much on a MLB roster. We need to stop obsessing about keeping every single prospect who might have one flash in the pan year or even a solid MLB career, and use that prospect capital to improve the MLB club. That's 1 of the things it's for. Here's my dream of how you do this to improve the team and I don't think it means that we are "gutting the farm" (all trades vetted through Baseball Trade Values): 1) Laranch and Canterino to the As for Montas and Puk . . . or Larnach, Canterino, and an A Ball guy to the Reds for Castillo. Starting pitching added, maybe with a left handed reliever. 2) Sands, Strotman and Julien to Nationals for Josh Bell and Tanner Rainey. Throw in Sano and enough cash to pay his salary so he doesn't add or subtract from value. The Nationals get pitching prospects, and outfield prospect, and a replacement 1B with maybe some upside. Gets us a #4 hitter and solid 7th inning type reliever. 3. Here's the tough one - Enlow for Daniel Robertson of the Cubs or Enlow and Festa for Jorge Lopez of the Orioles. Closer added. 4. Archer goes into the bullpen as a late inning reliever/closer (with this contract adjusted so he can reach incentives), and Winder goes into the bullpen as a long reliever/6th starter. Pagan is thrown into some trade, maybe to the Cubs or A's, demoted with his consent to work on things in St. Paul, or released. Thoughts? I don't see this as gutting the farm in any way. Sure, losing these guys will hurt and maybe this is not enough to get the people I mentioned, although Baseball Trade Value seems to think it is, but to me this is one of the reasons you build up your farm system - To trade prospects for established MLB players when doing so have the chance to put you in a contending position. I think that's where we are. I would make each of these deals if available.

I don't see them trading Correa, and I don't see Archer or Bundy getting any sort of return. Bundy has actually been our second most reliable starter behind Ryan, and I think he leads the team in innings. I'd leave him in the #5 spot. I think Archer can be one of the late inning relievers we need, We need to adjust his contract incentives but I think he could thrive as a late inning/closer guy. I do agree that it's time to trade some prospect depth for MLB guys. I would basically be open to trading anyone except Kirilloff, Miranda, Winder, and maybe Canterino although I would only trade Canterino or Larnach for a starter. Here's my dream scenario (all trades validated through Baseball Trade Simulator): 1) Laranch and Canterino for Montas and Puk . . . or Larnach, Canterino, and an A Ball guy for Castillo. Starting pitching added, maybe with a left handed reliever. 2) Sands, Strotman and Julien to Nationals for Josh Bell and Tanner Rainey. Throw in Sano and enough cash to pay his salary so he doesn't add or subtract from value. Gets us a #4 hitter and solid 7th inning type reliever. 3. Here's the tough one - Enlow for Daniel Robertson of the Cubs or Enlow and Festa for Jorge Lopez of the Orioles. Closer added. Thoughts?

I think they can right the starting pitching staff short term with a trade for Castillo (my choice) or Montas. That moves Gray to #3, Ober #4, and Bundy #5. Winder and Archer go into the bullpen to strengthen that and they trade for Robertson, Bard or Lopez (hopeful shedding Pagan in the process). I know that costs a lot in prospect capital but isn't that one of the things that prospect capital is for? We have a relatively young team now so if we can make these moves without giving up Kirilloff, Miranda, or Winder, this would really improve things without taking on a lot of money so we can afford Correa again next year IF he wants to stay. I'd also be interested in Josh Bell if he isn't too expensive in prospect capital. Maybe we can even get the Nats to take Sano as part of a package with a solid prospect. He replaces Bell at 1B there and reunites with Cruz. If money is the issue, we send the $4m to pay for him for the rest of this year. Bell drops in the #4 position in the lineup after Arraez, Correa, and Buxton, with Polanco 5, Kirilloff 6, Miranda/Urshela 7, Kepler 8 and Sanchez 9.

Not a bad pitcher, like the years of control. I just think that Celestino is a big overpay and Gordon probably is too. Besides, Gordon may need to be our starting SS next year until Lewis is ready to come back. I would be willing to consider Wallner since he is still an unproven prospect who may or may not ever amount to anything. Still feels like an over pay though. Interestingly, baseball trade values lists Okert at 2.8, Celestino at 2.1, Gordon at 1.1 and Wallner at 3. I don't think those are updated from the beginning of the season though and all 3 would be up from that time given their performance this season. My "overpay" comment may be more based on perceived value to the Twins than overall. W need Celestino or at least Gordon to play CF on all the days Buxton can't and we need Gordon for next year to play SS for awhile if Correa opts out. I'm not willing to put Palacios bat in the lineup every day or move Polanco back to SS. Bottom line, Like this guy as a possibility but we need to trade from the MiLB depth for him, not the MLB roster.

I think you may have misinterpreted my post. I'm actually fine with trading any of the names mentioned in your post although I would like to keep Steer if we can unless he's the top end of a package for a starter. What I don't want to do is trade any of the graduated prospects - Miranda, Kirilloff, Larnach, Celestino - or one of our 10-15 best prospects for a series of rental or even controllable relievers or a mid level starter. I would give up quality to trade for Castillo and then it would have to be Larnach or Steer. I don't want to blow up the progress made this year in lengthening the lineup in the hope that a Montas plus high end reliever outcome would get us a few more wins. This team has made real progress this year. I know we won't have Correa next year, but I still think the real contention window opens next year. I actually think we're on the same page. That said, speculation is always fun. I would like to trade with the Cubs for Robertson and Givens, or with the Orioles for Lopez and Tate or Perez. I'd be willing to give up one prospect in the 10-20 range (Enlow, Henriguez, Sands, Festa) plus someone farther down the list and an A ball guy or two. The Orioles need a 3B so maybe they would take just Urshela and a 10-20 prospect and throw in a 20-30 prospect of their own. The only other trade I would consider would be for someone like Luis Castillo or Pablo Lopez and then I would be willing to part with a top 10 non-pitching prospect (Steer, Rodriguez, Wallner), plus 2 others outside the top 20. Let's run with the lineup as is, add RP unless we can get an acceptable deal for Castillo or P Lopez, and play it out.

Winning 85-90 games feels about right for this level of talent. We're short in all 3 areas - we need 1 starter who can pitch #1 or #2, 2-3 bullpen pieces that can pitch in late inning, high leverage situations, and 1-2 middle of the order bats. The only one we can possibly fill in internally is the bats if we can get middle of the order performance from 2 of Kirilloff, Miranda, and dare I speak it our loud, Sano. There may be starter help on the way in Winder and others, but not for this year. There's no way we can trade for all that we need without gutting the farm and/or the young players on the MLB roster. So what do we do? I vote for trading for a reliever or two as long as we trade either prospects 15 or lower or a guy like Urshela. Otherwise, let's run it out. This team is being built for next year. let's not sacrifice that for the fools gold of this year. 88 wins might get us the division,. some playoff experience and help position us for next year. I'd be happy with that.

I like the idea of trading Urshela if we can get a quality bullpen piece and it looks like the Orioles are really the only shot at that given their short term need. The obvious issue us that Urshela is only controllable for this year and next and that may be too short for the Orioles contention time line. Maybe if he were part of a package that included a prospect swap or maybe 2 relievers with the Twins giving up a starting pitching prospect like Sands could work. I would want Lopez to be the reliever that comes to the Twins, although he might be a one year wonder. The real reason to trade him is to clear 3B for Miranda, get the logjam off of 1B so Kiriloff can play there more and have room for Larnach to play LF when he returns in about a month(?). we also have to face the fact that Sano is coming back and will need a place to play other than just DH, Trading Urshela would help break up a potential logjam but hurts depth if there's an injury and makes us a little reliant on Sano performing. All of that is worth it for a reliever like Lopez in Baltimore, if this year is real, not so much for a mediocre middle reliever.

Fun way to end the game. I go back to what I said a couple of weeks ago, let's have Miranda and Kirilloff in the lineup (almost) every day through July and see what they do. On offense, all this team really needed is 1 or 2 more middle of the order bats to go with Arraez, Correa. Buxton and Polanco at the front of the order. Kepler is not that bat; he would be much better continuing his fine defensive work and hitting 7th. Same for Urshela and the catchers are what they are, average offensive players for catchers which is to say, not great. I'm really hopeful after the last 2 weeks that Miranda and Kirilloff can be those 2 middle of the order bats. With Larnach and Sano potentially coming back, maybe 1 of then can even add another bat. That way we don't need any hitting help at the deadline and can focus whatever resources we want to use in the trade market to what we really need, late inning relief pitching and a quality starter in that order. I would love to see the "standard" lineup for the rest of this month and into August look something like this: Arraez 1B/DH Correa SS Polanco 2B Buxton CF/DH Kirilloff LF Miranda 1B/3B/DH Kepler RF Urshela/Gordon/Sano/Garlick, etc. - Fill in/DH Jeffers/Sanchez C

Interesting. Who are they going to drop to get him a roster spot?