LA Vikes Fan

Wait, am I reading this right? We got a 28 year old pitcher on a real major league roster with a sub 3.5 ERA and a AA pitcher for the withered husk of J.A. Happ? Wow ..... just, wow.

The Dodgers think he can, or at least that’s what they’re saying. I will say though, I wasn’t very familiar with Jacob Amaya until you mentioned him. The more I read the more interesting he becomes. Maybe a package built around pitching with Amaya as part of it works. My only concern is Amaya is not hitting at all in AA this year (.218/.301/.366) so he may still be a couple of years out. We are going to need a regular shortstop starting either the day after we trade Simmons or by opening day next year.

I disagree. The Twins should be very interested in Gavin Lux. He's a good fielding shortstop and as a pre-–arb player he would be on the team for at least the next 4 or 5 years. He hit a little when he was playing for the Dodgers while Seager was out before his injury (.227/.307/.359 (.656), and actually should be a quality shortstop who is at least a decent hitter. We do not have a shortstop at the moment. I think he could be at least a good fielding decent hitting shortstop for the next 4 to 5 years and could be more at the plate as he developed. I do agree with the poster that said getting Josiah Gray is going to be difficult, particularly if we get Tony Gonsolin. If we can't get Gray, I would suggest Ryan Pepiot. He said AA now, doing quite well, and could project out to at least mid-rotation or better in the next 2 – 3 years. Frankly, I would be willing to throw in any reliever on the Twins roster other than Rogers or Duffy if we could get Gonsolin, Lux, and Pepiot. Of course removing Rogers and Duffy probably removes anybody the Dodgers might actually want. But who knows what's being offered.

Padres out. Dodgers in? They look like the best option from a talent standpoint. They have a lot more to trade us than Seattle or Toronto, particularly pitching. By the way, I live in LA and follow the Dodgers. Close to zero chance that they will trade us Dustin May for the reasons I explained before. Think about Tony Gonsolin, Gavin Lux at the controlled MLB level and Josiah Gray and Ryan Pepiot at the prospect level. Some combination of that group is much more likely.

Guys, I live in LA and follow the Dodgers. Very unlikely that hey trade Dustin May. they see him as a future #1 or #2 with several years before free agency. Next year, they see Buhler and May as the 2 of the top 3 in the rotation assuming Kershaw stays (now that Bauer has imploded). Buhler is signed through 2022, and starts arb in 2023 with free agency in 2025. Dustin May doesn't even hit arbitration until 2023 and free agency in 2026. Very hard to give that up. I may be wrong, but I think that Berrios and Rogers or Duffy isn't going to be close to enough. Probably should focus on someone else on a deal with the Dodgers.

I don't think the Dodgers will trade May. Probably not on the list of possible outcomes. How about Berrios and either Robles or, if we have to, Duffy to the Dodgers for Tony Gonsolin, Gavin Lux and either Josiah Gray or Ryan Pepiot? They get starting and bullpen help, we get a mid to back rotation guy in Gonsolin, our starting SS for the next few years, and a potential top end starter.

At the risk of stating the obvious, I think a lot of the mistakes were based on overestimating the core talent in place and thinking the team would be playoff competitive this year if we just filled some holes in the complimentary group. That's why you keep a Cave around as a 4th/5th OF (which costs you a 40 man spot for Badoo), bring in Robles and Colome, look for veteran 4th/5th starters like Happ and Shoemaker, and sign a bunch of 30 year old relievers to be available at AAA (although Coloumbe has been pretty good). The real problem is that the middle of the order core turned out to be a bunch of inconsistent complimentary players, not lineup anchors. Sano is maddeningly inconsistent and shouldn't be hitting higher than 6 or 7 on a good team, and really is a streaky DH/bench player on a good team. Kepler is a 3rd/4th OF with a good corner glove/avg CF glove who can't really hit. Shouldn't hit higher than #7 in the order on a good team. Berrios is a solid 2/strong #3 starter not a #1, and Maeda is a #3, not a #2. Polanco can hit in your top 5 or 6 in the order, but he can only be a decent 2B, not really a SS. Same for Arraez with even less field value. Donaldson is good, but not great, Buxton still gets hurt all the time, and the BP is Rogers, with Duffy as a decent but not closer or 8th inning piece, and then a crapshoot. This isn't a core to supplement, it's a supplement looking for a core. Well, now we know. We do have part of the core in Garver and Buxton if he's healthy surrounded by Polanco and Arraez. Kirilloff looks like he can be a core guy. The pitching staff is still a mess, but Ober gives us some hope and there are others who deserve a shot. The thing to do now is develop internal guys and those you get in trades, not bring in fringe vets to fill holes. I think it can be done soon enough to be interestingly competitive in 2022 and a real contender in 2023. We just need to get this started now.

I hear you. It's a lot easier for me to say what I think the Twins should do from here in LA where I can watch the dodgers and Angels, and not have to pay MLB prices to watch the twins throw Ober, Barnes and Jax in a 3 game series. I agree that the Twins should run deals, promotions, etc. to help ease the pain of watching a re-tooling/evaluating team. Doesn't help you if you bought season tickets but that's the risk you take. trust me, I'm in season ticket groups for the Kings, Dodgers, Lakers and Chargers so I'm very familiar with going to games where you keep asking "who is that guy again?" while having the joy of paying full price for the tickets. Rumor has it that the Twins FO actually monitors this board and that there is someone on the board who actually works for the team,. Shows what a great job our moderators do. If there is, let me add to my long 6 point post sent at at about 9 a.m. LA time: 7. Discount all but the best seats so fans can bring their families, get decent seats, hot dogs and a coke and spend $100 or less for 4. The rest of this year is about evaluating players. Don't make the fans pay full price to watch that. You will make more money long term if you treat the fans like adults with a stake in the team. Have Jim Pohlad go on TV flanked by Falvey and Levine, announce the team's longer term plans, and say we're reducing 2021 prices so the fans can come out for the rest of the year and get to know the 2022 team. Give season ticket holders a 10% discount on next year if they buy or renew in the next 30 days. Get the fans invested and you'll make it back and then some next year.

I think this deadline is playing out the way it probably should for the Twins. Patience is key here. The Cruz trade was the right move because the offer was good enough to move early. It looks like the rest of the offers have not been good enough. My view: 1. Don't trade Buxton, sign him. From what I read, the $80m guarantee is over 7 years is acceptable to both, the issue is the size of the escalators. There is a deal there, make it. The only way a midmarket team can keep someone this talented is to get lucky and take risk. That's what we need to do here. 2. Only trade Berrios now if you get a huge package. From the Dodgers, it must include either a Dustin May or Gavin Lux type player, +1 of their top starting pitching prospects like Gray or Peipot, plus an A+ or AA pitcher or shortstop with upside. Do not trade him unless you can get that. If all we're being offered is a lesser package, we can get that over the winter and it gives us a chance to re-sign him. Consider trading Donaldson to create the payroll space to give the money to Berrios. We need him more. 3. With two possible exceptions, trade all of the expiring contracts for effectively whatever you can get. It ain't going to be much given the performance of these guys but restocking the lower levels with guys that don't have to be on the 40 man roster right away has value. The point here is not the return. The point here is opening up opportunities now, not next year NOW, for the next wave of guys who might help us in 2022 through 2025. If you have to DFA guys like Happ to move him off the roster, do it. Colome is tougher because they still the hint of reclamation there as a middle of the bullpen guy and we need that. 4. The other exception is Pineda. Only trade him if you can get a solid to good return in the form of pitching that can be on the MLB roster next year or a shortstop. If you can't get that, try to re–sign him NOW. He wants to stay, is a solid number 3 or number 4 starter (#3 if he gives you 30 starts, #4 the more likely event he gives you 20 starts) and he wants to stay. 2 years $20 - $25 million. 5. Avoid the temptation to trade guys who can be contributing parts of a contending team in the 2022 – 2024 timeframe and for whom there are no obvious replacements like Duffy, Kepler, Polanco, Arraez, Maeda, etc. unless a team overpays. Do not let other teams take our decent quality players unless we decide to trade all of them and start over. I don't think were ready to do that nor do I think we need to do that. 6. PLAY the young guys so we can evaluate them for next year around what we need to find over the winter. In the field, that means Rooker, Gordon, Larnach, Miranda all get a lot of at bats. Same for Sano, Refsnyder and/or Contreras if the FO thinks they can be contributors next year. Celestino is not ready, so he goes back to AAA at the very least. Rotvedt is in the same boat and should stay in AAA. Whatever you do, do not play guys like Astudillo and Cave at the expense of these other guys. Astudillo and Cave might be numbers 25 – 30 on the roster next year but we already know what they can do. Let's not be 1 of those teams that tries to eke out another 3 – 5 wins this season by playing guys really have no long-term future as significant contributors. 7. PITCH the young guys for the same reason. Hopefully after the trade deadline dust settles, there will be room in the starting rotation for at least Jax and/or Barnes, and hopefully for Winder. Give all of these guys a minimum of 5 or 6 start down the stretch and keep Ober in the rotation until he reaches his innings limit, then sit him and give the last few starts to someone else. Hopefully the bullpen will have room for at least some of Hamilton, Vasquez, Moran, and Cano. Get those guys at least 10 – 15 appearances each, again so you can see what we have. Send Alcala back to AAA if you need to to create room. Look, all of this sucks and seems like every move we made over the winter backfired. Having said that, we are where we are. We need to have a plan to move forward to make things better as soon as possible. I think this plan does that and, more importantly gives us the data we see how far away we are by the end of the season. That helps make a decision on guys like Berrios and whether to try to re-sign guys like Cruz and Pineda if he's traded. Stop mucking around and commit to a re-tooling this year or we're going to be stuck in never never land again next year.

I completely agree that he should get some MLB at bats. I would prefer they started sooner rather than later though. If we trade Donaldson, I would advocate bringing up Miranda and giving he 3-4 days a week to get his feet wet starting in early August. If not, I agree that we should wait until September. The reason for the difference is that absent Donaldson, the Twins have more of a need for him next year so we have more of a need to see what he can do for a longer period. Assumedly Arraez will move to 3B if Donaldson is traded and it's hard to project more than 100-120 games a year for Arraez given his knee issues unless he spends some time as the DH. We will need a 3B to play at least 40-60 games next year if Donaldson is gone and I for one would prefer that Sano not be that guy.

I would love to see the Twins get May and either Lux, Peipot or Gray for Berrios. I would even throw in Robles to "help" the Dodgers bullpen. If they want Berrios and Rogers, we need to get back May, plus Lux, Gray or Gonsolin, and a solid relief prospect like Bruihl or Jackson. A starting pitcher, starting SS and decent upside MiLB pitcher.

Why trade Rooker until you’ve played him some more and give him a chance to see what he can do? He isn’t going to get us anything significant in return unless we can find a team willing to trade a blocked shortstop or pitching prospect in return for a blocked outfield/DH prospect. Seems pretty unlikely. He is worth more to us than he is to anybody else, so why trade him? I guess I could see him as the minor-league throw in to even out a different trade. I think the better thing to do is to do what they’re doing, call him up, put him in the lineup as a DH Or outfielder and see if he can find that hitting stroke he seem to have a couple of years ago in a small sample. There’s nothing for us in trading him now so why do it.

Trading Nelson Cruz is no fun, but this is exactly what the Twins have to do and should do. They traded a player only signed to the end of the season and got back to reasonably well regarded players at a position of need, starting pitching. It hurts emotionally and makes the team weaker in the short run, but probably makes the team stronger in the long run. The rest of the season needs to be all about evaluating what we have and opening up the DH spot to get more bats to others makes sense as does getting two more pitchers we can audition in these last two months of the season. By the way, I wouldn’t yet close the book on the Twins resigning Nelson Cruz in the off-season. A lot depends on how the team looks the last two Months of the season. If the FO thanks we can compete in 2022, I could easily see them trying to resign Cruz for another run as the DH. The competition may be tough but frankly that’s no different than things would have been anyway since his contract was going to run out at the end of the season. I like this trade. I also think this is pretty much it before the deadline unless they find someone to take Donaldson‘s contract. I think will see some small trades of guys like Simmons, Robles and Happ for A ball lottery ticket types. I think Pineda might get us a little more, but frankly not much. I very much doubt that Buxton, Berrios or Rogers will be traded by July 30 although all or some may be gone in trades over the winter. It will be very interesting to see who is still on the team come July 31.

I do think that "wait and see" is the right approach with Rocco. I do think that he sometimes gets a little to lost in the analytics and loses the human side of performance. Even if a particular pitching matchup is the right thing statistically, it may not be the right thing on that day for that player, and a manager needs to see and understand that before making a decision, I do think he needs a strong, experienced bench coach to help him. The biggest problem with this team is that the players who were supposed to be the core group at this point have mostly failed except for Polanco and Berrios and even they aren't leading lights. The middle of the batting order by this point was supposed to include Sano, Kepler, Buxton, Garver and Polanco. Sano is almost unplayable, Kepler can't hit and looks like he will never be more than a good fielding OF who should hit no higher than 7th (and maybe be the 4th OF), Garver is injured and inconsistent, and Buxton can't stay healthy. Polanco looks like a leadoff or #6 hitter. On the pitching side, Berrios hasn't taken that step to be a #1 ( I would argue that he's a solid #2/strong #3), Maeda is a mystery, and the bullpen never really developed past Rogers. It's hard to blame the manager for these failings.

Interesting list. I see the Andrew Vasquez jersey on the twitter feed but didn't see him on your list. Looks to be having a great year in St. Paul. What do you think of him as an asset worth a shot this year?

I agree that the Padres are more likely to give up real assets for Berrios than the Dodgers. I live in LA and the Dodgers really tend to prize and hold onto the prospects they think are going to be long term MLB players. They have the budget to simply go out and buy what they need so they don't feel quite as much need to trade prospects for proven talent. I think it's going to be very hard to pry Dustin May away from the Dodgers. They see him as the number two starter behind Walker Buehler as early as 2023 when Clayton Kershaw is retired and/or living in Texas. Gavin Lux might be possible but right now the Dodgers are planning to have him play shortstop after Corey Seager potentially walks away in free agency after this season given that Scott Boras is his agent. The Padres might be the better trade partner right now. I did want to follow up on a point made by another poster indicating that it was telling the team made an offer to Buxton but not to Berrios or Rogers. Do we know that to be the case? I am more curious than anything because I would suspect that they have offers out to all three, or at least I would hope so because it would help provide clarity as to what they should do going forward. Has anyone read anything about that from a reasonably trustworthy source? Inquiring minds want to know.

I live in LA and I do think the Dodgers are in an interesting position with Baauer‘s future completely up in the air. I could see them trading for Berrios but I think they would have a hard time giving up Dustin May. What do you think about taking that same deal, have the Twins give up Berrios but not Rogers, and getting back Tony Gonsolin, Pepiot and Gavin Lux? Two pitchers and a SS?

Quick question, if Barnes is called up as the 27th man for a doubleheader do we burn an option year? I seem to remember that it does not burn an option year as long as you return the player to AAA after the doubleheader. It’s kind of a free look other than having to add him to the 40 man roster. Can someone let me know if I’m remembering this right? Frankly, we should call him up and give him more than one start so this may be a moot but at least we get a free look if I’m remembering this right.

Great article, ‘Nick. It’s all boils down to what you think of the talent on hand and whether you think this team can or will resign Berrios or Rogers. I think the talent on hand is good enough to contend in 2022 and certainly by 2023 IF we add a middle of the rotation free agent starter and a late inning free agent bullpen piece. Trading Cruz and or Donaldson freeze up the payroll space to make those moves. Playing the rest of this year with the young guys given every opportunity helps us evaluate what we have and whether I’m right on the window of contention. I think trading Berrios or Rogers at the deadline is too soon. Evaluate your younger additions over the rest of the season. Trade the expiring contracts, Cruz (and Donaldson if the offer is good enough) to augment things for next year If possible, but really to create openings for young pitchers to audition for 2022.. Make the decision on Berrios and Rogers over the winter after you have time to really see whether contention is possible in 2022. Don’t trade now, it’s too soon..

Guys, we have 6 games in the first 4 days after the All Star break, 15 in the the first 13, and no day off until July 29. We can’t cover that with our normal 5 man rotation. We will need at least 2 starts from AAA guys, one Thursday against Detroit and one Monday against Chicago just to cover the schedule. And that assumes the regular 5 don’t get traded or have to miss a start for injury. We need to start the best we have from the farm, so let’s all get used to seeing these guys.

Great to see this happen . This is exactly the kind of thing the twins should be doing for the rest of the season. Keep him in Minnesota and give him him more than one start unless he shows he isn’t ready. Winder should be next.

Interesting stretch ahead. Do you think that we will see a start from Barnes or Winder in the upcoming 6 games in 4 days stretch with the Tigers and White Sox? Detroit might not be a bad team for them to get in their first start; White Sox not so much. Might also be time to fire up the Uber and get Hamilton, Vasquez or Cano up. There willbe a time where they can replace a guy like Law or Coloumbe after they go 2 or 3 innings following a short start. Time to see what these 5 guys have. It will also be interesting to see if we make any trades over the break or wait until late July. It's hard to trade pitching when you come out of the break with 15 games in 13 days so any trade of Pineda, Happ, Robles or Thielbar probably has to wait until month end. Still, it would create space for a AAA pitcher. I think they can trade Simmons or Cruz whenever they want if they get the right deal. It will be interesting to see if they give Gordon games at SS after Simmons is traded, assuming he is. They've kept Gordon on the 26 man even though he hasn't been playing. I got to think that's because they intend to play him after trading Simmons either at SS or as a UTL. I'd love to see them give him a crack at SS now and then so they know going into the winter if he can play the position. They'll almost have to play him if Donaldson is traded. Interesting times, indeed.

I disagree. I don't think the return at this trade deadline for Berrios will significantly differ than it would over the winter. Past history doesn't show that when it comes to high end starters. Moreover, I don't think the Twins are trading him until they are absolutely sure they can't re-sign him unless someone will significantly overpay. You're probably right about Rogers; over paying for relievers is more common at the deadline. Again, I think the Twins should re-sign him and relievers aren't huge financial investments, at least compared to starters. By the way, I don't advocate for trading Donaldson UNLESS the savings is immediately invested in a long term contract for Berrios. Otherwise, let's keep him. Also, his replacement isn't Miranda, at least not yet, it's an every day position for Arraez. Polanco will stay at 2B and we'll need another short term SS until Lewis or Speer is ready. I think Donaldson stays for now unless we get someone to take the contract and give value. I don't think that's in the cards. . The place where we really need to evaluate before deciding is on the pitching side. Is there a MLB ready starter between Winder, Barnes and Duran? Is Ober good enough to be the #4 or #5 guy next year? If they are, one solid #3 FA starter in the offseason could really make a difference in the rotation. Are any of Hamilton, Vasquez, Cano or even Moran ready to be meaningful contributors in the bullpen? If one or two of them are, then all we need is a high end FA reliever next year. Conversely, if the answer to all of these questions is "No", then we should go for a tear down and re-build and trade everyone we have with value for prospects and hope we hit on some of them. That means a 2-5 year rebuilding window, but that may be what's necessary to build a contending pitching staff. I think we differ in our evaluation of where the team is now. I think the core lineup when healthy is good enough to contend. That means Buxton and Garver back making meaningful contributions. Our pitching is not, and not close. However, if we can find a starter plus Ober to competently man the #4 and #5 spots with ERAs below 5, and we find 2 good relief arms from the "group of 28 year old relievers" (Hamilton is 26, Cano just turned 27, and Vasquez turns 28 in Sept., all a not uncommon time for relievers to show their worth), then I think we aren't too far from a contending team - a solid #3 FA starter and a late inning relief FA and we're in good shape. It sounds like you think we are farther away than that and/or that we already know that we won't be able to re-sign Berrios or Rogers. If you're right, let's tear down and re-build. If I'm right, let's re-tool. My point is we don't enough data yet to make that call and we have 2 months of MLB baseball to get that data. Let's go out and get it. If the cost is the lesser return for Berrios and Rogers over the winter. that's a cost I'm willing to pay. Sounds like you aren't.

I say the Twins take a chance and actually give us the ANSWER to this question. Jettison/trade Pineda and Happ and put Barnes and Winder in the rotation with Berrios, Maeda and Ober. Dobnak and Thorpe are your AAA depth when they come back from injury. Move on from Robles (trade), Colome (trade or DFA) and Theilbar or Coloumbe (trade) and call up Hamilton, Vazquez and Cano. Pitch the starters every 5th day and use the relievers like real relievers in 6th and 7th inning situations. When inevitable 10 day IL stints occur, hope that one or more of the presently injured or AA guys like Sands, Duran, Caterino or Moran can fill in. Let's be Darwinian - may be the best guys win! My guess is that Winder will show enough to be penciled into the 2022 rotation along with Ober, but Barnes will be more of a 6th starter/long man/ AAAA guy. In the bullpen, Hamilton and Cano will be middle relief arms next year and Vasquez will be another long man/AAAA guy. But what do I know? Let's settle this in the arena!