LA Vikes Fan
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Everything posted by LA Vikes Fan
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No offense, but I think you guys are looking in the wrong direction. With Buxton and Correa apparently taking the rest of hte season to heal, there's little chance that this team can win the division. They are going to have to fight hard and get lucky just to make the playoffs. The place to look is behind. Boston was 5 games out of the final WC spot coming into tonight's game. They have the 17th hardest schedule remaining, the Twins are 19th. That's where we should focus, holding off Boston and making the playoffs. With this team as depleted as it is, that ain't gonna be easy.
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Did you see Eddie shaking his head as he came off of the field? Did you also see Wallner yelling at someone in hte dugout to "get in the fu@***ing game?". These guys are getting very frustrated. By the way, Boston is winning tonight. Let's be honest, this team has very little chance of catching or passing Cleveland or KC with Buxton and Correa apparently out for most of the rest of the year. The race to follow is whether we can stay ahead of Boston for the last Wild Card spot. 5 game lead going into today. Stay tuned . . .
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The worst thing that could happen to this team has happened; Lewis has stopped hitting. Without him, Correa and Buxton, we are reliant on Wallner and . . . a bunch of inconsistent hitters. The wheels are coming off, gasoline is spilling onto the track, the engine is smoking, and we are going down.... Only chance is some kind of ignition or a hot streak from someone else. Oh wait, Miranda isn't playing today...
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This team has just run out of players. Miranda is the grizzled old vet in the middle of the order. They are trying to win games with a number two, three, and four hitter in Larnach, Lewis and Wallner, who have less than 500 major league at bats each, and a rotation that has three rookies. Their other key hitters are 38-year-old first baseman known primarily for his glove and taking walks, and a utility guy who leads the team in ABs. Add in a bullpen that’s clearly at least three pitchers short and it’s a wonder these guys can even play .500.
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Twins Young Pitching Must Turn Hype into Results as the Team Chases a Division Title
LA Vikes Fan commented on NishiokaStan's blog entry in Northern Platitudes
Agree with Tony & Rodney. All 4 of these guys are at the early stage where they should be in MLB starting or at least at AAA. I'd much rather see them pitch than a 30 year old mediocre #4 guy, which seems to have been the alternative. That gets me to a narrative that I just would like to see retired - "we could have gotten a starter at the trade deadline and chose not to because ... " The starters then available who could actually help were Kikuchi, Flaherty, Fedde, and maybe Zach Elfin. Trevor Rogers was sent to AAA by the Orioles because of ineffectiveness, Alex Cobb is on the IL, and James Paxton is out for the year. Any of those guys would have cost at least one of Festa, Matthews and Morris (supposedly the guy everyone was asking for, even for a reliever), perhaps even two, or at least one plus a Raya or similar prospect. And that's assuming Detroit and Chicago would trade within the division at the same price as outside the league where these guys actually went. BTW, 3 went from the American League to the National League and Kikuchi cost the Astros their #9 and #13 prospects for a two-month rental. Trading for a starter at the deadline was never in the cards without a huge price, let's not pretend we could have easily done so without giving up much. Now, failing to bolster the bullpen at the deadline - that's was inexcusable. Had to and should have done that with a 15-30 type prospect or two. -
There's no question that our best Offensive lineup has Lewis at 2B. That would allow Miranda to play every day at 3B and get his bat into the lineup in place of Julien or Farmer, and allow Castro to be the super utility that he should be playing at least 2 days a week in LF in addition to 2-3 days a week at various IF positions. It also opens up a spot for Lee next year when Miranda becomes the every day 1B. I think Lewis can easily play 2B and it's hard for me to see that a 2B has any more injury risk than at 3B now that runners can't take out the 2B in the double play. Lewis at SS is interesting, but ultimately irrelevant in the short term as long as we have Correa. Maybe in a few years? I would say playing 2B makes it easier more Lewis to slide over to SS in the future than a life at 3B. Lewis at 2B? Yes, please.
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The most important and interesting statistic up there is the record in one run and extra inning games. Cleveland is 23–15 in one run games, 8–3 in extra innings. The Twins are 19–15 in one run games, 2-3 in extra innings. That isn't luck. That's the difference between having a very good bullpen and a middle-of-the-road bullpen. The difference in bullpens is why Cleveland leads the division and the Twins do not. Cleveland has a much better bullpen.
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I think if the Martin that we are seeing now is the long term Martin, I would agree. It's very hard to have a starting player who hits 5 or les HRs a year unless that player can play CF, SS, or C at a pretty high level. Where I disagree is I don't think this is the long term Martin, I think he will improve both at the plate and on defense. I think he could be an above average to very good (not elite) CF with reps and practice. I also think he could be a .280/.340/.425, 30 Doubles, 20 SBs kind of hitter as early as next year. or 2026. To me, that's a solid regular #3 or #4 OF. I see him as part of a 4 OF group next year with Buxton, Larnach, and Wallner, with Castro out there occasionally as part of a super utility role. Maybe I'm too optimistic but I think that level of potential is there. I would not trade him in the off season unless his presence in a package could get us a frontline starting pitcher. I think Martin is here for the longer run.
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It's a start. For those longing for Varland and Winder, they were optioned on 8/15 and 8/14, respectively and have to stay in AAA for 15 days before being recalled unless there's an injury. Both are not available until next weekend.
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- david festa
- austin martin
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Agree with one change - I think we have to keep Vasquez. Not because he's worth $10m but because we don't have anyone else ready and I don't want to spend $3-4M on a washed up backup catcher. I don't see us rolling with Camairgo as the #2 catcher next year, so we wind up on the market looking for a 30 year old plus body. Any catcher worth much of anything is $2-3M a year, a decent one $3-5M a year. I like our catching tandem the way it is and would like to keep it going next year. Good point on Paddack, though, and on the kind of decisions that are going to have to be made. Unless ownership steps up payroll (unlikely), we can't keep what we have. My view is that the second half this year has shown enough SP depth that I'd be willing to trade Paddack for prospects or Paddack and prospects for a reliable reliever and save $4-5M (Paddack's salary less the salary of the acquired reliever), and put that $$ towards keeping Castro on the team. Losing Kepler saves $10m, Famer $6M, Santana $5m, and Margot $4m. Add in trading Paddack's $7.5M salary and there's enough to handle arbitration and contract raises, sign a good but not great reliever for $3-4M, and keep Castro. I like me some Kepler and Santana, and I understand having to have SP depth, but I like keeping Castro and Vasquez and rolling with the young guns in the #4 and #5 spots better.
- 58 replies
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- charlee soto
- brandon winokur
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Thanks, I thought they had to be on the 26 man. That actually makes things a lot easier, especially when it comes to the last bullpen spot being a yo-yo between Winder and Henriquez.
- 71 replies
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- louis varland
- jhoan duran
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Not sure where you're getting that "unlikely to suit up this year" comment rom, can you tell us? What I read is that Buxton is just about ready and may be activated tomorrow. If not, probably by Monday. Correa is farther away and may require a few games in AAA given hos long he's been out but he's expected back by mid-September at the latest. I may not be reading the right things though.
- 20 replies
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- austin martin
- matt wallner
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Agree with this but you have to remember that by rule, any pitcher optioned to AAA cannot come back up for 15 days unless there's an injury. Winder was optioned 8/14, so he's eligible 8/30 but not before. Varland went down on 8/15 so he can't come up until 8/31. I think those two should be in the BP over Okert and probably Henriquez but we can do that until the end of the month., unless someone gets hurt. Richards is painful to watch but has gotten results in 7 of 8 appearances. I think he'll stay for now, but probably not in the postseason BP, if we make it, if either Paddack or Topa can come back.
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- griffin jax
- jhoan duran
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Agreed. Making Varland a reliever now doesn't mean he can't try out again as a starter next season. We're not talking about a permanent move, or at least shouldn't be, we're talking about a temporary fix for the rest of this season. Call him up for Henriquez when we can (I think he's eligible for recall on 8/30) and either sign Hector Neris or call up Winder (eligible for recall on 8/29) to replace Okert. Yes, that only leaves us with one LH option but that's much less important when all relivers have to go 3 batters. A bullpen with Varland and Neris/Winder for Okert and Henriquez could and should make a pretty big difference.
- 71 replies
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- louis varland
- jhoan duran
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I'd like to see the Twins explore a 1 or 2 year deal with Kepler, but I agree that it probably isn't going to happen. He would be a great 3rd/4th OF along with Larnach behind Buxton and Wallner. I suspect he's going to be too expensive for that and probably doesn't want to stay where he's being passed by. I suspect he'll sign a 2 year deal with a non-contending but decent team like San Fran, Detroit, Pitt, amybe even Seattle where he can join Polanco. It'll be sad to see him go but with Wallner and LArnach passing him by and Emma and maybe even Martin close behind it's one of the inevitable passing of the torch moments in sports.
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There is Help on the Waiver Wire - Should We Try to Grab It?
LA Vikes Fan commented on LA Vikes Fan's blog entry in LA Vikes Fan
Neris is a RH reliever. He was on a $9m contract from the Cubs which contained a $9m option for 2025 that kicked in if he made 60 appearances or finished 45 games. He's 8-4, 3.89 in 46 games so far with 17 saves. He was really good last year with Houston, 6-3, 1.71 ERA in 17 games with 2 saves. Solid in 2022 and 2021, great in 2023, with over 70 appearances each year. He's a very good set up man but the Cubs tried to turn him into a closer and the experiment didn't take. Pretty neutral RH/LH splits. good experience in playoff races with the Phillies in 2021 and the Astros in 2022 and 2023. The Cubs wanted to release him before the option kicked in. The option does not follow him so he's available to any team on whatever contract he'll sign with this year expected to be the MLB minimum unless someone wants to pay at a prorated number bigger than $9m annually. I absolutely think he's worth a call. He would slot in as our 5th best BP option behind Jax, Duran, Alcala, and Sands right now. Wish he was LH but beggars can't be choosers. Might require some sort of 2025 commitment but I'd give it to him if not extreme. Make room with a Okert DFA or Henriquez option. -
I think you're right; it was a little of both. I would add one other possible consideration - where the FO thinks this team is in terms of contention to go more than one playoff round. My premise is that acquiring a deadline reliver is typically a short term move for the season at hand. Most of the traded relivers are on expiring deals, older, or have injury histories. Usually, it's 2 of the 3. You have to give up real prospects to get a good one so it is only really worth it if you think strengthening the bullpen has a chance to take your current roster over the top into a deep playoff run. I think the FO evaluates this team as a year away from a deep playoff run. I agree by the way. As a result, I don't think they were willing to trade a quality prospect for any short term guy like Tanner Scott, Luis Garcia, Carlos Estevez ,Andrew Chafin, or any one else. Is Richards more valuable than what the Twins gave up? Probably. Is he going to take them to a better playoff position or help a deeper playoff run? Nope. I think the FO wants to run with the team we have so they can see the holes, see if any of the young (and Cheap) guys can fill those holes, patch any remaining over the winter, and see if next year can be the first year of a longer run of contention. IF that's the plan, paying a prospect cost for a good reliever who isn't likely to be on your team in 2025 doesn't make a lot of sense. Maybe you pick up a guy who gets released for salary reasons that you don't have to take on and thus doesn't cost anything (see Hector Neris), but that's it. By the way, pitching Steven Okert when Varland, Winder, and even Dobnak are in AAA also doesn't make a lot of sense. Actually no sense. But that's a topic for another thread.
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There is Help on the Waiver Wire - Should We Try to Grab It?
LA Vikes Fan commented on LA Vikes Fan's blog entry in LA Vikes Fan
The Cubs just released Hector Neris. Has been good in the past, not as much this year while being miscast as a closer. Very good for Houston in 2023, decent but not great in 20222. Maybe worth a look? https://www.mlb.com/player/hector-neris-593576 Reds got Rosario, by the way. They had priority over the Twins. -
Boy, are you right about that. Just when you think you have surplus pitching that you can trade, you make a move, someone gets hurt, and you run out. There has been some talk of trading Paddack in the offseason to make room for the young guys and because he’s making $7.5 million next year. I’m very mixed on whether he can even be a Mid rotation starter, but I think we gotta keep him because we need the depth.
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Amen, Doctor Gast. This should be a reminder to all of us that player development continues through a player's 20s at least and is rarely linear. Sands has been willing to accept coaching and has worked hard to get better. The results speak for themselves. He may be that 3rd high leverage arm we need now that Stewart is once again out for the season and Theilbar is finally losing that battle with Father time. The other guy that really impressed me in his recent brief MLB sojurn was Josh Winder. It would be great if he could follow a similar path.

