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Danchat

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Everything posted by Danchat

  1. Danchat
    I'd love to go in a time machine and tell everyone in 2013 that Hendriks would one day make the most $ per year for a reliever in 2021... that'd be a hard sell. There was no reason to believe that this type of turnaround was going to happen, so the decision to DFA him was fine. But when in doubt, try a failed starter in bullpen - you'll never know what will happen!
  2. Danchat
    That’s a pretty disappointing return for Cleveland. I would have made that move in an instant, especially with Carrasco involved.
  3. Danchat
    Yeah, I don't get the love for Kepler. He was great in 2019, but his bat has consistently been middling the other 4 years he's played. His deal is pretty cheap, but he's starting to get more expensive. Kiriloff and Larnach have similar ceilings to him, and will be much cheaper. Also, Larnach is #10 and Kiriloff is in the top 5? Methinks they're very close as prospects and should be closer together in the rankings. Larnach's had the better minor league track record, but Kiriloff is younger (and younger compared to the competition throughout the minors).
  4. Danchat
    Hmmmm... they're not going to get Cruz back, going by that quote. DH by committee is nice for getting different bats into the lineup, but our lineup is going to suffer without Cruz.
  5. Danchat
    I'd be up for trying him out in the backend of the bullpen, and give him higher leverage chances if he proves himself. But throwing him right into the closer role after how he pitched last year? No thanks!
  6. Danchat
    Hmmmm, didn't think he'd get a major league deal. Robles was a quality reliever for a couple seasons before tanking in 2020. I like that he throws around 95-96, and isn't a repeat of Romo and the other slow pitchers. With the volatility of relievers in baseball, I could see this move panning out. $2M isn't a big deal.
  7. Danchat
    This seems like a great year to make a few trades at a lower cost than usual. I'd be fine if the Twins focused on trades rather than FA signings. Get Cruz back, trade for a guy like Sonny Gray, maybe trade for Marwin's replacement, sign a few relievers to 1 year deals... this seems achievable this offseason.
  8. Danchat
    I don't get why there is a belief that Polanco can play 3B... his arm is already questionable there. He'd be fine at 2B, but Arraez is there and not able to handle any other positions. Find a good backup SS like Adrianza was, and Lewis can be the future at that spot.
  9. Danchat
    Cave has a nice career OPS, but he showed little power in 2020 and plenty of swing-and-miss ability. It's telling that Kiriloff got the start over him in the playoffs. I can't feel confident about him in 2021, especially with the abundance of lefty OFs. Having Kirlioff, Larnach, and Rooker is a nice luxury. A prospect is never a sure thing, but when you have several high caliber ones, it's hard to go wrong with all of them. I wonder if we might see a Kiriloff-Kepler-Larnach OF by midseason - unless Buxton is healthy for once, and then we'd have quite the rotation.
  10. Danchat
    Baddoo went 3rd overall, huh? Color me surprised. He hasn't hit much in the low minors, so I don't like his chances of sticking with the Tigers for an entire season. I thought if any of the toolsy young prospects went, it'd be Javier over Baddoo. Losing Wells stinks. If he can stay healthy, I think he'll be a pretty good reliever. It's probably good they held onto Ober so they didn't lose him as well, as I'd put those two in similar categories.
  11. Danchat
    I wouldn't hate it if the Twins drafted a reliever and tried to develop him into something. But outside of that, I'd be fine if they didn't make any selection,
  12. Danchat
    I'm really frustrated by the Iglesias trade. The Angels basically bought out his contract and didn't have to give up a decent prospect, despite him being a dynamite closer in his prime. The middle to small market teams clearly aren't going to have payrolls that will allow them to succeed as much as usual in 2021.
  13. Danchat
    I would guess the Twins Opening Day payroll will be in the neighborhood of $115-120M... I don't see this happening. I believe I had predicted $135-140M range last year and I was pretty close.
  14. Danchat
    I've always liked Bradley, and Stanek and Middleton look like doable project relievers. By the way, it's Keynan, not Kenyan. Whoa, David Dahl has some pretty numbers. I'd certainly be willing to bet on him, he was just an All Star in 2019 and he's only 27. Though for the Twins it probably doesn't make sense to pair him with Buxton, they'd never play together because they're both made out of glass. Duvall doesn't seem like anybody that special, but he did just hit 16 HRs in 57 games this year. That's 43 HRs if the 60 games are spread out to 162. Would definitely be a bat (RH) to pair with Kepler/Cave.
  15. Danchat
    If he was actually looking for that much, then I can understand the Twins’ decision a bit more. But I was under the impression he’d get $1.5-$2M.
  16. Danchat
    They haven't. I would think they'd try to get Clippard back, not sure if they want Romo after declining his option. But then again, I thought they'd want Wisler back too. Still scratching my head over that one.
  17. Danchat
    While trying to project out what the Twins' rookie OFs might be able to do in their first season, I did a bit of research on how some of our past rookie debuts have gone. 2020 Ryan Jeffers - .273/.355/.436 (.791 OPS) 0.3 WAR 2018 Jake Cave - .265/.313/.473 (.786 OPS) 1.7 WAR 2018 Mitch Garver - .268/.335/.414 (.749 OPS) 0.9 WAR 2016 Byron Buxton - .225/.284/.420 (.714 OPS) 1.7 WAR 2016 Max Kepler - .235/.309/.424 (.734 OPS) 2.4 WAR 2016 Jorge Polanco - .282/.332/.424 (.757 OPS) 0.4 WAR 2015 Miguel Sano - .269/.385/.530 (.916 OPS) 2.4 WAR 2015 Eddie Rosario - .267/.289/.459 (.748 OPS) 2.2 WAR 2014 Danny Santana - .319/.353/.472 (.824 OPS) 3.8 WAR Those are some good numbers. Here's hoping we can tack on a couple more successful years at the top of this list.
  18. Danchat
    Wow, I didn't realize Garcia played so much CF for the Rays. He's not fit for that role, he's clearly a corner OF. Pollock played more LF than CF in 2020, but he was likely signed as a CF guy. I'm totally fine with them letting him hit the market, but I still think $10-12M is a good deal to get a guy who can hit like he can. Maybe put him in LF in a smaller stadium or pair him up with a speedy CF like they did with Buxton. But with payroll contracting it makes sense to go with the young guns.
  19. Danchat
    Just ran the numbers on other outfielders who are making similar amounts of money: Rosario 2019-20: .271/.305/.494 (.798 OPS) 38 HRs 127 RBIs (per 162) 2.6 total WAR (BBref) Avisail Garcia 2019-20 @ $10M: .270/.332/.427 (.759 OPS) 21 HRs 80 RBIs (per 162) 1.6 total WAR Aaron Hicks 2019-20 @ $10M: .231/350/.431 (.781 OPS) 26 HRs 82 RBIs (per 162) 1.8 total WAR A.J. Pollock 2019-20 @ $12M: .270/.322/.506 (.828 OPS) 36 HRs, 94 RBIs, 0.8 total WAR Josh Reddick 2019-20 @ $13M: .267/.318/.401 (.718 OPS) 15 HRs, 65 RBIs, 0.7 total WAR Wil Myers 2019-20 @ $13.8M: .254/.331/.477 (.808 OPS) 26 HRs, 72 RBIs, 0.9 total WAR If this was a normal market, $10-12M for Eddie would be very reasonable.
  20. Danchat
    I don't think we saw enough of Pineda in 2020 to justify another deal with him. I'd rather wait to see how he pitches the 2021 season and go from there.
  21. Danchat
    I did not realize Ober's fastball tops out in the 80s. He must have some great breaking pitches, 'cause throwing 88 isn't going to fly in the majors these days.
  22. Danchat
    That also begs the question, if they're only going to rely on him for 5 inning games in big opportunities, why pay him the big money? I'd prefer to see Berrios play out the next two seasons here and let him hit free agency. He'll be a pretty good pitcher for a while, but he'll likely be overpaid heavily in the open market.
  23. Danchat
    Not surprised by the Rortvedt addition, but I am surprised that Ober makes the 40 man. He's got the crazy numbers, but the question will be if he can stay healthy. I also have to wonder how soon he'll be ready. I don't think we lose anybody in the Rule 5 Draft. Guys like Severino and Javier are simply too far off, and would be deadweight on a major league roster. As for making room on the 40 man roster... fringe guys like Thorpe and Smeltzer don't seem like locks. They look like AAA arms, and we need roster spots for bullpen additions. Tortuga could be DFA'd with Rortvedt + a non-roster guy like Telis at AAA. Wade Jr. seems expendable with the OF prospects nearing their arrival. Is Gordon even worth rostering? There is plenty of room here and I don't expect a lack of roster spots to impede any FA signings.
  24. Danchat
    Yeah, I think that Kiriloff got his chance over Larnach because of the 40-man spot, as we'd be down one spot right now if we brought Larnach up for that single game. But I agree, Larnach's right in the thick of it with Kiriloff, and with the way he's consistently raked in the minors, I'd be willing to be he will end up as the better player. I fully expect him to debut at some point in 2021 and look the part.
  25. Danchat
    Odorizzi isn’t getting $60M in this market... $30M might be a stretch.
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