Danchat

Last year the plan was "let's load up on players with prior playoff experience"... which I thought was a good premise, but it certainly didn't pan out. Hopefully this year's plan will lead to finally breaking the 18 game streak. Perhaps we'll see a Trade Deadline acquisition or two when the time comes.

I'd put him more in the 12/14 prospect ranks because of how far a ways he has to go. I would rather rank someone like Brent Rooker, who is basically MLB ready but doesn't have Cavaco's ceiling, higher simply because the odds of him contributing in the majors combined with how well he should do is higher. Cavaco might be a good 3B ready to take over in the 2025 season... if he makes it through the minors. I'd just prefer to rank him like one of the international prospects like Urbina, who are also massive question marks with tons of potential.

Right, but then once Polanco is at SS, you have no players on the team who can backup him up at SS, not to mention that Arraez is the primary backup 3B and he'd probably be a bottom-tier fielder there. I could see them going with a glove-first SS/3B on the bench, if Gordon can't be that guy.

I hope so, or else we're going to be seeing Tzu-Wei Lin or JT Riddle on the 26 man roster, and that won't be ideal. I like Blankenhorn's bat, but he won't be playing SS in the majors.

Dobnak was pretty good for an extended period last year. I wouldn't mind him starting another 10-15 games if needed. Duran is definitely closer, but I don't think he will be an option for the first half of the year. I think Balazovic is still a ways out and won't be close to making the team in 2021. At this point, I think Griffin Jax and Charlie Barnes are the next guys up after Smeltzer/Thorpe. Not ideal...

Twitter must know his nickname is Big Sexy!

Yeah, I think they're done. They spent more money than I (and I'm sure many others) expected, so I'm happy with the offseason they've had. Getting Cruz back, adding Simmons to the infield, and getting Colome for cheap were quality moves. I just would have preferred not throwing $10M at Happ & Robles, and instead made a trade for a starter and retain Wisler for $1M.

I'd much rather have somebody like Quintana or Paxton instead of Happ, as they signed at similar prices. Dobnak/Shoemaker are fine for the back end of the rotation. I would like better options than Thorpe/Smeltzer, but we are talking about the #8/9 spots.

I am hoping they will add another veteran starter to this list... I don't love the depth of the rotation at the moment. Charlie Barnes is going to be starting games in 2021 with the rate starters get injured.

Nope, you can DFA a guy immediately after adding him. They just DFA’d Ian Hamilton to make room for Colome despite claiming him a few days ago. It’s pretty silly, all things considered.

Benintendi to the Royals? Huh. Didn't see that move coming.

Should we just not try to trade for a good veteran on an extremely team-friendly deal? When you're taking such a macro-level approach, it's hard to really evaluate the trade. I mean, we couldn't win a playoff game this year, so I guess all the moves we made were pointless, then!

It looks like Anderson has 1 option left, so the Twins should be able to stash him in AAA if they so wish. Thorpe looks like the only guy who might who's in trouble.

Jeffers and Kiriloff should, Rooker will likely too. Wallner and Balazovic aren't close enough yet to help, and I don't think Lewis will be ready to contribute this year. Larnach definitely could this year. Maybe Duran breaks into the rotation at some point, but landing in the bullpen in September is a possibility too, and then he competes for a rotation spot in 2022.

Both of the pitchers listed project to be starters, Duran is just more likely to start out in the bullpen at the end of the 2021 season, like many top pitching prospects. They wouldn't be ranked so high if they were likely to end up in the bullpen. I wouldn't call the hitters sure things, though I think Larnach, Kiriloff, and Jeffers are close to that.

Marwin's numbers in Houston were inflated by cheating, which assisted him in getting a $21M deal from the Twins, and then hit just .211 as a near-full time starter in 2020. Astudillo was better at the plate (over a smaller sample size) and is playing at the minimum salary. I don't think the comparison is all that similar.

Maybe it's just me sensing that Lewis' career is going to go like Carlos Gomez's or Aaron Hicks'. Perhaps I am overreacting a bit to a single year of his minor league career, but I see a lot of red flags. Other prospect rankings don't seem to factor in risk as much as I did - that's not to say they're wrong to do so, I'm just looking at things from a more mathematical standpoint. The top 3 are very close and could be interchanged. Kiriloff and Larnach have their differences, but they're both the same level of prospect. I'll need to see more of Wallner to know where to better rank him, as he might end up in the 'teens' range.

#8 - Matt Wallner OF (1st Round 2019, Southern Miss) | Another bat-first prospect, Wallner has some serious power behind his bat after hitting 58 HRs at Southern Mississippi (in just 872 PAs!). He did alright at Elizabethton, and his main concern as a hitter will be limiting the strikeouts. Defensively he's a subpar runner and will be limited to corner OF, if not 1B. He also pitched part-time in college, which means he's got the arm to throw out runners. | #7 - Brent Rooker 1B (1st Round 2017, Miss State) | Rooker's very similar to Sabato and Wallner, but unlike them, he's ready to play in the majors. He did well in his first week of games in the majors before fracturing his wrist on a pitch, and we saw a glimpse into his upside. He's got the power to hit 25+ HRs a season and his batting average did not suffer much in the minors. Strikeouts will be a concern, as he had a dangerously high 33.8% strikeout rate at AAA. Despite that he still hit .928 OPS with a super strong .399 OBP. Defensively, he really shouldn't be playing in the outfield. He hasn't played a ton of 1B, but hopefully he's given plenty of practice there because that would be an ideal place to end up. Otherwise he'll be a DH his whole career. | #6 - Jordan Balazovic RHP (5th Round 2016, HS) | The Twins have gone through a drought of starting pitcher prospects for at least 10 years, and have been desperate to get a guy like Balazovic up and going. He mowed through Fort Myers A+ in 2019 with a strong 2.84 ERA, a phenomenal K/9 rate (11.8) without a bad BB/9 rate (2.6). He uses a strong mix of a 94-95 MPH fastball that acts a sinker, and sprinkles in similar-looking curveballs and sliders. He needs to get more innings under his belt and I don't think he profiles as a #1 or #2 starter, but he has a clean injury history and he'll likely be starting in AA at the young age of 21. Balazovic has a bright future in the big leagues if he continues down the path he's headed. | #5 - Jhoan Duran RHP (International from Dominican Republic, acquired in 2018 trade) | The top pitching prospect, Duran turned his career around once arriving in the Twins organization, going from a #20-30 prospect in Arizona to top-tier prospect. Duran's fastball has sped up the past couple season, sitting in the upper 90s and he'll hit 100 every once in a while. His secondary pitch is a splitter that can hit 94, and consistently fool hitters with its fastball-speed. His command can be a bit shaky at times, but that's even been a huge problem for him. Duran does have the toolset to be a dynamite reliever, but he's successfully pitched a starter's workload in the minors and should land in the rotation. Perhaps he pitches in the Twins' bullpen down the stretch in 2021 as his first dip into the MLB pool. | #4 - Royce Lewis SS (1st Round 2017, HS) | Most prospect rankers won't agree with this, but I'm not as high on Lewis as most are. The first overall draft pick in 2017, Lewis had very strong 2017 and 2018 seasons, but he hit poorly in 2019 at A+ and AA. He was promoted to AA despite hitting .665 OPS, and proceeded to hit .649 OPS there. Critics have pointed out that Lewis' swing does not look good and his approach at the plate needs heavy refinement, and his pitch recognition is currently poor. He's still young, turning 22 this summer, but I don't think he's particularly close to being MLB-ready. There has also been debate about whether he will end up at SS or CF, as he has the raw speed to handle both. This ranking has mostly been negative, but Royce has the potential to become a talented hitter with 60-65 power potential and has the highest ceiling of any prospect on this team. I just get the sense that Lewis will become a hitter whose approach at the plate won't click until Year 4 or 5 of his career. | #3 - Alex Kiriloff OF (1st Round 2016, HS) | The Twins are poised to make Kiriloff their starting LF in 2021, and it's not hard to see why. He has a career .317 batting average in the minors, and that's no fluke. Scouts rave about his ability to make consistent contact on tough pitches, he has has some serious power behind his swing, with the potential for 20+ HRs a year. Kiriloff's focus on contact has kept the number of walks low, but that's not a big concern if he hits > .300. He's had a couple of wrist injuries and missed the entire 2017 season. Defensively Kiriloff is one of the lower prospects on this list, and while he has a good glove and a great arm, he may end up at 1B. Hopefully his bat will end up somehwere in the #2-4 spot in the lineup one day. | #2 - Ryan Jeffers C (2nd Round 2018, UNC Wilmington) | This is probably the highest you've ever seen Jeffers on a prospect ranking, but I am comfortable putting him this high. Good catching prospects are rare, and Jeffers is the entire package. He was yet another 'questionable draft pick' in the 2nd round, but the Twins organization sculpted him into one of the best defensive backstops in the minor leagues after initial scouting reports claimed he wouldn't be able to stay at catcher. He ranked as a top-notch pitch framer, and showed as much in his 26 game debut in 2020. His bat was always his calling card, and it didn't disappoint in the minors with a very strong (.296/.383/.453 .836 OPS). He'll take a lot of walks and has the potential for more power. Jeffers is ready to graduate off this list and will push for the starting role as the Twins' catcher. | #1 - Trevor Larnach OF (1st Round 2018, Oregon State) | I conclude with another bat-first position player, of whom has the best minor league track record to this point. Larnach covered 4 levels of the minor leagues through only two years (2018-19) and held his own at every level, never dipping below a .295 batting average or .840 OPS. In total he's recorded a (.307/.385/.468) triple slash, and that's even with only 18 HRs in that stretch. He's got more power in that bat, no doubt. Larnach will take plenty of walks too, as his K/BB ratio was very healthy too. Defensively he's a bit on the slower side, but I think he will work as a RF with a decent glove and strong arm. Once he figures out the big leagues, Larnach is a hitter whose name should be penned into the #3 spot in the lineup and be let loose to rake to his heart's content. || I will add one more blog post soon going over my formula of how these rankings were calculated. Until then, let me know what you think!

Alright, I think that’s enough AAAA pitchers on the 40 man... I’d DFA Gibaut.

Let’s not forget the White Sox had the division wrapped up until they collapsed... they absolutely should have won it. I’d definitely consider them to be the favorite, but by a small margin.

Wade just didn't have much use here being another OF lefty, and only had one option left. Instead we get a middling reliever who needs work, but still has 2 options left. Perhaps one of Anderson, Gibaut, or Waddell will be the next Wisler, or at least be decent in middle relief. Either way, I like this move. It's better than the inevitable DFA of Wade because there just isn't room for him.

For me, It'd probably first be Gibaut, then Thorpe, Astudillo, Wade Jr, Waddell. Not sure where to put Gordon since he's only got one option left and has had problems getting on the field, but is the only backup SS on the 40 man.

Good move. With what money they've got left, I'd like to see another reliever or two added since I don't love our current bullpen (Clippard & Soria/Colome?). As for a starting pitcher, I think they're looking at a minor league deal with a guy like Foltynewicz.

Continuing on from Part 2: #16 - Blayne Enlow RHP (3rd Round 2017, HS) | Enlow has had a very average minor league career so far. He throws 4 different pitches, which gives him an edge to be a starting pitcher, but his K/BB ratio (2.39) leaves a lot to be desired. He averages 92 MPH but can touch 95-96 on occasion. Enlow still has time to take a big step forward, and a good 2021 season could vault him into the top 10. | #15 - Edwar Colina RHP (International from Venezuela, 2016) | Ignore his bad outing in the final game of the 2020 season, I think Colina has a bright future, albeit as a reliever. His fastball can reach up to 100 MPH, and in combination with a strong slider, he was able to average about a strikeout an inning. Walks have been a problem for him, with a career 3.9 BB/9. He found more success in 2019 once he mostly ditched his changeup, though if he could bring that back, his repertoire would be all the more stronger. Colina should bounce between AAA and the MLB team in 2021, with the hope that he can figure things out like Jorge Alcala did in 2020. | #14 - Misael Urbina CF (International from Venezuela, 2018) | Urbina gets the nod over the other top [internal] international prospects after he had a strong 2019 in the Dominican Summer League, hitting .825 OPS. Urbina is ahead of most other prospects his age (he'll turn 19 soon), as scouts praise his plate discipline and hand-eye coordination. If he can develop power later on, he should jump up into the top 5. He was a base-stealing threat as well, but it's questionable if he'll continue to be such a fast runner after he puts on more muscle. | #13 - Keoni Cavaco 3B (1st Round 2019, HS) | Many considered Cavaco to be a reach in the draft at pick #13, and his play in rookie league only confirmed this for some. Cavaco hit .470 OPS with a dreadful 38% strikeout rate. Hope should not be abandoned for the young infielder, as many project him to have a 55 to 60 power ranking, and he's working on accessing this power. He's also blazing fast, having enough quickness to play SS, but is currently error-prone. Cavaco needs to get his career on the right path with a strong 2021 season. | #12 - Cole Sands RHP (5th Round 2018, Florida State) | Sands has dealt with some injury issues, but when he's healthy, he deals. He had a quality fastball that touches 95/96 and mixes in a curveball that might be the best in our system. He turned in a strong 2019 season, posting a 2.68 ERA in 18 starts with healthy K/BB numbers. Sands turns 24 in 2021, and needs to pitch a whole season (likely at AA) to prove himself as a starting pitcher. He could challenge for a spot in the 2022 rotation if all goes well. | #11 - Matt Canterino RHP (2nd Round 2019, Rice) | We haven't seen a full season in the minors from Canterino yet, but the scouts are raving about him. He's recently developed a nasty changeup that complements his strong fastball, which has already seen an increase in speed since his college days. He's going to be getting strikeouts by the dozens, if his track record is anything to go by. Canterino is still a ways away, and for pitching prospects, I don't count chickens until the eggs are close to hatch. | #10 - Gilberto Celesinto CF (International from , acquired in 2018 trade) | Unquestionably the best outfielder defensively on the prospect ranking, Celestino boasts a 60-60 run and fielding toolset and could be an elite defender in CF. As you might expect, his bat has been a bit shaky in the minors, as his 2019 season ran hot and cold - his first half was dismal, but his second half was stupendous. He won't be a power hitter in the big leagues, but he did knock out 10 HRs. Celestino profiles as a CF in the same vein as Kevin Kiermaier or Kevin Pillar. | #9 - Aaron Sabato 1B (1st Round 2020, North Carolina) | The Twins just can't resist a good hitting prospect, no matter how their caliber of athleticism. Sabato, the Twins' latest 1st rounder, crushed the ACC conference at college as he had a crazy .332/.459/.708 line. That's only over 368 career PAs, however. He's already rated as a 60 power hitter, meaning he could be a 30+ HRs a year guy. The problem will be what position he plays... it's either going to be 1B or DH. He's already a hefty guy and will need to learn how to play 1B. I don't mind having a pure hitting prospect like this, there's just a few too many of them just like him for my taste.

Kiriloff should be the Twins' starting LF, but I could see them going with Arraez in LF to start, put Cave in, and etc. And then late April/whenever the year starts they'll call Kiriloff up and he'll starting raking and look way better than the other options. Man, those service time rules just seem so backwards. I can't blame teams for holding guys back when it's as easy as waiting three weeks to call a guy up. That needs to be fixed. And about Arraez, he was at best the #15-18 Twins prospect. You wouldn't have found him on a Top 300 prospect list, possibly not even 500.