Danchat

Huh, that is very surprising... though it looks like Atlanta's farm system isn't that good, and Bryce Ball (aforementioned #12 prospect) would likely be in the #18-24 range in our system. Cruz is a way better hitter than Joc and they are both on expiring deals, so the Twins should certainly get a bigger return than this one. They won't get any top prospects, of course.

I believe it does not cost an option year if he gets called back up within a certain amount of time. However, I don't think any of this is an issue since even if they used an option this year, he wouldn't run out of options until 2024, and he'd be 28 by that point. Barnes is a fringe prospect and is far more likely to be DFA'd in the next year or two rather than stick around enough to be brought up and down for 2021, 2022, and 2023.

Barnes profiles as a AAAA pitcher, but there have been exceptions to the "soft-tossing" lefty trope, and he could end up sticking as a long reliever / or even gain a few ticks on the fastball upon joining the pen. I do think it is important to figure out whether you can count on him as depth in the future, as he will likely be back in the AAA rotation in 2022. I'd prefer figuring out if he stinks now rather than later.

I'd take healthy Donaldson over injured Buxton. If we're ever going to do anything in playoffs, how is Buxton going to help from the IL? He can't make it through a full season, and I would bet that he gets more brittle as he ages.

Good work! Some of these names bring back memories. I forgot about Marcos Diplan, I was surprised when they gave up on him but I think they needed a 40 man spot, but he's still only 24 and now pitching as a reliever at AAA with the Orioles with decent numbers.

This has been a rough year for hitters, so seeing top prospects struggle shouldn't be a huge surprise. It's nice to see Kirilloff and Larnach putting up good numbers, and hopefully they can continue improving through the second half so that they can make themselves fixtures in the lineup.

I like the pick, it was about time they took a pitcher in the 1st round. High school pitchers may be a longshot, but in reality all picks are crapshoots, so why not? Can't wait to see him pitch in 2025 or 2026.

I approve of the Petty pick. Now, take another P/SS/CF and I will be happy.

I am hoping for BPA (best pitcher available), and if they do take a hitter, he better be a true SS/CF. I don’t think the focus on 1B/DH hitters is going to pan out for them. Obviously it is all a crapshoot, but if a prospect ends up weaker as a hitter, it’s be better to at least have a quality defender at a premium position.

Smeltzer and Thorpe could be 60 day IL'd, but I wonder how the other relievers will be dealt with. Farrell and Columbe have put up good numbers, but are they really worth keeping around? How fast can we get rid of Colome? Why is Law getting another chance when it could be Hamilton or anyone else like Cano/Moran?

I would guess it's a mix of how close the player is and how likely they are to reach their ceiling. Ober has shown the ability to strike out MLB hitters and has had a few good starts, while Sands and Enlow are further back in the minors. If those two were to keep pitching well as they progress, I would imagine they would jump up higher in the rankings.

I would entertain a one year extension, but I wonder if Cruz will get more from an NL team with the DH likely coming back in 2022. There is also a high chance of a holdout happening, which would make extending Cruz riskier (I assume all contracts would be pushed back a year). If he is intent on hitting the market again, I would trade him, since we wouldn't give him the qualifying offer.

Rortvedt is light years ahead of Tortgua defensively. The best outcome for Rortvedt will probably be hitting .220 with some pop, and top-notch fielding as a catcher - there's a reason why Drew Butera lasted so long in the majors.

Yes, Kepler's career is generally overrated, but he's currently faring worse than he's usually been, hitting around .680 OPS. Plus, since he returned from injury, he's hitting .158 with a 37% K rate. Right now, I'd rather see Sano in the lineup than Kepler.

This isn't something I'd be worried about, if they're moving some of the big pieces (Berrios/Rogers), I have no doubt they will get a substantial return on paper. My concerns lie with their ability to develop the prospects they get into legitimate MLB players.

Vallimont is 37th in my rankings - I think he will end up in the pen in the majors. Steer seems properly ranked, I think Colina is too. He is a hard guy to rate because it's easy to rag on him (one bad MLB appearance, elbow issue and hasn't pitched a workload since 2019), but he has electric stuff that can play in the pen.

I felt like I've heard the phrase "any potential hope that was remaining for a comeback season is gone" once a week for the past month. They've been cooked for quite some time now, so even if they do win some games back against the Royals and Tigers, I don't want to hear about "OMG, we're only 11 games out of 1st place!!" Now that it's July and we're out of contention, it's time to see what we've got in the high minors / young guys in the majors. Rooker and Cano are getting old, let's see what they've got. Give Gordon as many PAs as he can handle. Find out where Arraez's future position is. Give Charlie Barnes and some of the relievers with an ounce of potential up just to see what they've got. I am sick and tired of the waiver wire relievers like Law, Waddell, Minaya, Columbe.

Agreed, right now I would add Palacios simply because we don't have many pure SS prospects. I would be OK losing Javier, since I have my doubts that he'll ever hit well in the majors.

2024? I would think 2023 is realistic even if you think we won't be competitive in 2022... unless you think our FO is that incompetent.

I think we've got to crown June 29th as Jose Miranda Day, or something like that. I can't remember the last time a minor leaguer did this in their first start at a new level. Here's hoping he continues to rake like there's no tomorrow!

I don't think Baddoo and Wade are self-scouting errors; Baddoo did not seem like he would be taken in the Rule 5 draft due to his numbers in the minors and injury history, and there was only so much room on the 40 man. Wade was superfluous as yet another lefty who would be stretching it in CF, so with Kepler/Cave/Kirilloff/Larnach/Arraez on the team, trading him was logical, but they failed to fix the pitcher they got in return. This FO does seem to have an issue with self-scouting their pitchers. While they could have tried out Nick Anderson, they were busy rummaging through DFA guys like Matt Belisle and Oliver Drake. They too often try to get their older waiver wire relievers to become reliable options when they could be trying out arms in the minor league system. They also have not shown willingness to go out and acquire arms via trade very often, with Maeda as their only successful veteran acquisition via trade (Romo was more of a minor success). If we're going to go on a World Series run, we'll need a great bullpen, and that's not going to be built via scrap heap pickups. Sure, you'll find a gem every once in a while like Brandon Workman for the Red Sox, but most of the time they will need to spend in FA/trades and develop some minor league arms.

He's #32 on my board, his Tool Grades from Fangraphs is keeping him lower on the list than the others, but he probably shouldn't be 10 spots behind Cano. Wallner was my 8th prospect originally and the top 3 graduated, so it's hard to knock him down much lower after just 75 PAs. I don't think you'll see any of the others rate Miranda over Wallner like I did, at least this high. Sabato was originally ranked #9 and was essentially knocked down 3 spots as I explained above. I'm also being more lenient on guys who are in their first season - Rooker, on the other hand, has had plenty of time, hence him dropping like a stone. I guess I'm not feeling the hype quite as much on him. His .490 OBP is insane.

Continuing from my Top 30 Prospect Rankings in the winter, I have updated my standings in accordance to how well things have gone for the individual players. I'll try to keep this brief, but I can promise nothing! Format #Num - Pos Player (Winter Rating) Current Level - Quick Summary Graduated #1 OF Trevor Larnach #2 C Ryan Jeffers #3 OF Alex Kirilloff DFA'd #18 2B Travis Blankenhorn #35 SP Dakota Chalmers Top 30 Prospects #30 - 2B Edouard Julien (Not Ranked) A - A former 18th round pick, Julien is raking at Fort Myers. Has a long way to go, but he's on my radar now. | | #29 - CF Gabriel Maciel (#24) A+ - Maciel got off to a rough start and has shown zero pop in his bat. He profiles as a Ben Revere type. | | #28 - 3B Seth Gray (#32) A+ - Gray has shown improvement at the plate and has a high .368 OBP. Part of that is because of 9 HBPs (hit by pitches). | | #27 - 2B Will Holland (#26) A - Got a late start and has been a bit shaky in a small sample size. | | #26 - SP Luis Rijo (#23) A+ - Got a late start, pitched in one game, and hit the IL with a forearm strain. This reeks of a lost season. | | #25 - SS Jermaine Palacios (NR) AA - Palacios is quite the story. He was the only prospect in the Odorizzi trade with the Rays, but he completely flopped in AA Montgomery. He signed back with the Twins in free agency and is hitting up a storm (.850 OPS with great OBP and some power) and he already profiles well as a defender. He always had a high ceiling, which earns him a spot in the top 30. | | #24 - OF Emmanuel Rodriguez (#29) Not playing yet. | | #23 - OF Alerick Soularie (#28) Not playing yet / injured. | | #22 - RP Yennier Cano (NR) AAA - Cano crushed AA with a 13.7 K/9 ratio and doesn't hand out too many walks. The 27 year old Cuban is now pitching at AAA and should debut in August/September for the Twins as a reliever. | | #21 - RP Edwar Colina (#15) On the 60 day IL after having bone spurs removed from his elbow. Still the organization's best reliever prospect, Colina missing a year of development is awful for both him and the Twins. | | #20 - C Ben Rortvedt (#20) MLB - He's filling in as the backup catcher, and as I speculated before, he's a strong defender who can't hit. He'll do better than .140, but he's always going to be a liability at the plate. | | #19 - SS Danny De Andrade (#25) Not playing yet | | #18 - 2B/CF Nick Gordon (#22) MLB - Gordon went from potential DFA candidate to a quality bench player. Even with almost 2 years off, his swing looks good and his speed gives him SB opportunities and can fill in as a CF. This is likely his ceiling, though. | | #17 - SS Wander Javier (#19) AA - Javier is looking better at the plate, but is still only hitting .692 OPS. His future may be as a backup SS who can field better than most, but can't hit. | | #16 - 2B Spencer Steer (#21) A+ - Steer is absolutely raking at Cedar Rapids with a .915 OPS, 10 HRs, and .405 OBP. He may earn a late promotion to AA and has potential to climb higher if he keeps hitting. | | #15 - SP Blayne Enlow (#16) A+ - Looked great in 3 starts, but then needed Tommy John surgery. The first of a bundle of quality starting pitcher prospects, this injury sets him back at least a year. | | #14 - 1B/DH Brent Rooker (#7) AAA - Rooker plummets down the rankings after looking terrible in his short MLB stint and getting passed up by the likes of Garlick, Refsnyder, Gordon (for MLB ABs, not outfield play). He's hit well in St. Paul (.925 OPS 11 HRs), but he turns 27 soon, and if he can't hit MLB pitching, he has no place on any roster. | | #13 - CF Misael Urbina (#14) A - Urbina has struggled at Fort Myers, but he's only 19. It's too early to be concerned. | | #12 - 3B Keoni Cavaco (#13) A - Cavaco is hitting better, though with no power and too many Ks. At just 20, he has a long ways to go. | | #11 - SP Bailey Ober (#33) MLB - Ober takes a massive leap up as I originally projected him as a reliever. He's looked better than expected in the Twins' rotation, and while he has been hittable and given a strict inning limit, he's been able to strike out some of the league's best hitters. If he get more innings under his belt, he could solidify himself as a decent MLB starter. | | #10 - SP Josh Winder (#27) AA - I initially rated Winder too low, as he's now dominating AA with a WHIP under 1.0, 10.7 K/9, and 5.4 innings per start. At this rate he will be able to graduate in 2022 and he profiles as a mid-rotation starter, not just a back-end guy. | | #9 - 1B Aaron Sabato (#9) A - Many thought Sabato might start at A+, but instead he starts at the bottom and he's been bad at the plate. A 33 K% in the minors is a big red flag. It is early, but like Rooker you have to wonder if his power-first approach will sink him at the plate. | | #8 - CF Gilberto Celestino (#10) MLB - Celestino went from AA to MLB in the span of two days, and unsurprisingly looked shaky at the plate. He needs more time to work on his bat, but 2022 will be his final option year (had to be protected from Rule 5 draft). It'd be nice to use Celestino as a Buxton substitute. | | #7 - SP Cole Sands (#12) AA - Like Winder, Sands looked very good at AA, albeit with a few too many walks. Unfortunately, he's on the IL with an undisclosed injury. | | #6 - OF/1B Matt Wallner (#8) A+ - Wallner was hitting at a ridiculous 1.005 OPS (.333/.384) before hitting the IL with a hamate bone injury. He did have a 38% K rate in that small sample size. | | #5 - 3B Jose Miranda (#17) AA - I mentioned last time that Miranda needed to take a big step forward, and that's exactly what he did. With an insane 1.0006 OPS (.348/.415), 12 HRs, and a microscopic 10% K rate, Miranda looks like the real deal despite his struggles in the lower minors. It's fair to debate if he can stay at 3B full-time, but his bat looks like it has MLB staying power. | | #4 - SP Matt Canterino (#11) A+ - Canterino looked flat-out unhittable until hitting the IL with elbow issues. Hope for the best, everyone. | | #3 - SP Jhoan Duran (#5) AAA - Duran has struggled with injuries and command so far, and has now been shut down with an elbow problem. This is looking like a lost season. | | #2 - SP Jordan Balazovic (#6) AA - After missing time with a back problem, Balazovic is ramping up and has been a bit shaky. He has nasty stuff, but needs to get more innings under his belt. | | #1 - SS/CF Royce Lewis (#4) Torn ACL - With my top three graduated, Lewis took over the top spot, but of course blew his ACL in Spring Training. He should be ready for the 2022 season where he will likely start in AAA. Rule 5 Eligible Prospects for Winter 2021: Royce Lewis Jermaine Palacios Jose Miranda Josh Winder Cole Sands Wander Javier Gabriel Maciel Blayne Enlow

I think Berrios will command a bit over $100M. Buxton is hard to put my finger on due to obvious reasons, but I don't think he gets $100M+. He may be hitting like an MVP when he's playing, but it's a pretty small sample size, and his defense is not going to improve with age.

Burrows is probably just here to be depth, with Thorpe and Smeltzer on the shelf longer than usual. He and Barraclough ain't blocking anyone - the FO would make room for them when they are promoted, it's not like we have legitimate depth we can't afford to lose in AAA. Burrows' track record is pretty mediocre, as he's been hittable and doesn't strike out a lot of guys. He is just 24 and has options. Perhaps they move him to the pen full-time and see if he can step his game up that way.