Nick Nelson

Pressly was extremely good all year with the exception of a two-week rough stretch in June. He had a 2.15 ERA after 30 appearances. He was a dominant reliever for the Twins. No one is arguing that the Astros didn't make tweaks and seemingly help him improve, but acting like he was some sort of ordinary reliever for the Twins is just blatantly false. Pressly's K-rate and whiff rate were among the best in the league, both before and after the trade.

I'm sure Houston's adjustments helped him achieve those absurd numbers in August & Sept, but we can fairly assume he was gonna have a monster second half no matter where he was. The dude was throwing unbelievably well when the Twins traded him. He had a 0.90 ERA, .523 opponents' OPS and 17% swinging strike rate in 10 July appearances for the Twins before they dealt him. He's one of the nastiest pitchers in baseball, plain and simple. That was evident before he was moved. It just seems so odd to me that they invested all that time and effort into developing him into such a weapon, then just as they were starting to fully reap the benefits, they trade him for another project.

Among all units on the 2019 Twins roster, none are subject to more controversy and skepticism than the bullpen. It was the team's biggest question mark heading into the offseason, and the front office did very little externally to address it. Can this relief corps hold up?Projected Bullpen: Taylor Rogers, Trevor May, Fernando Romero, Blake Parker, Addison Reed, Adalberto Mejia, Matt Magill Depth: Trevor Hildenberger, Tyler Duffey, Gabriel Moya, Andrew Vazquez, Ryne Harper, Tim Collins, Mike Morin Prospects: Jorge Alcala, Jake Reed, Tyler Jay, Jordan Balazovic, Tyler Wells THE GOOD The Twins have no closer. You might be confused reading that sentence under "THE GOOD" banner but to me, it really is a positive. We have no idea what to expect from Rocco Baldelli as a bullpen handler, but at least the rookie manager doesn't seem eager to constrict himself to rigidly defined roles. Despite its analytical awakening, Major League Baseball has lagged behind in terms of relief usage sophistication, plagued by the "save" and its overinflated prestige. If he simply makes a habit of using his best available arms in the highest-leverage spots – a formula that hasn't always taken hold in a game ruled by conventional hierarchies – Baldelli could find himself with an edge over opposing teams that reserve their best reliever until it's too late. And on any given day, the skipper might just find himself with multiple high-caliber arms available. Rogers, May and Romero are poised to form a fearsome trio in the late innings. Granted, only one of the three (Rogers) has already established himself as a top-tier reliever, but both May and Romero show all the ingredients. May flashed overpowering stuff as a full-time reliever in 2016, though he was hampered by back issues and inconsistent results. After losing his following season to Tommy John surgery, he came back last summer like a man on fire, piling up whiffs with mid-90s heat and powered-up secondaries. In 25 1/3 innings, he held opponents to a .221 average with a 36-to-5 K/BB ratio. Romero hasn't officially tried his hand as a reliever, but he has unsurprisingly taken well to the assignment this spring. His ferocious stuff seemed to play down as a starter, so the Twins are wagering it'll yield stronger results in short stints – a reasonable bet. In nine innings this spring, he has held opponents to a .188 average and .219 slugging percentage with heavy sinkers in the high-90s. He could be a hell of a weapon as a multi-inning fireman type, which appears to be the role Baldelli envisions for him. Behind the Big Three, the Twins have a couple of veterans with strong track records in Parker and Addison Reed, though each is coming off a down year. Mejia has been a competent major-league starter and could be a nice asset as a long man out of the pen if his repertoire levels up at all. Magill averaged a strikeout per inning as an out-of-nowhere rookie last year, and has been touching 96 on the radar gun this spring. Hildenberger is the big-time sleeper here. When he's on his game (as he was for his first 70 or so appearances as a Twin), he brings an ultra-reliable mix of grounders, strikeouts and control, but he was not on his game in the second half last year. That might leave him on the outside looking in when the spring training dust settles next week, but don't count him out as an important contributor to this bullpen. It's also possible a non-roster sleeper in camp could find his way into the picture, either at the outset or a short way into the campaign. Harper is the current favorite on that front. Collins, Morin and Jake Reed have also caught some eyes. THE BAD The Twins lost a critical piece of their 2019 bullpen when they traded Ryan Pressly to Houston last July, and they haven't done nearly enough to fill that enormous void. There is one reliever in this group that you can truly feel confident in based on his recent history: Rogers. That's it. Romero and May are full of potential but neither has really proven himself. Addison Reed was a mess last year and has been this spring too. Parker's performance in 2018 was uninspiring enough – despite the 3.26 ERA – that the Angels non-tendered him, and he went unsigned for six weeks until Minnesota inked him to a meager $1.8 million deal. Mejia and Magill? Both are on the fringe of major-league viability. What's worse: the depth isn't really there to plug holes as they emerge. The best hope for an impact prospect infusion is probably Alcala, who came over from Houston in the Pressly trade. The 23-year-old possesses a high-90s fastball and a slider with the makings of an out pitch, but he was underwhelming and injured after joining Minnesota's Double-A affiliate so it's tough to view him as a short-term difference-maker. The relegation of Jay, the club's top draft pick in 2015, to afterthought status looms very large here. This bullpen seems far more likely to turn into an unmitigated disaster than a competitive advantage. All it takes is an injury to one of those key late-inning linchpins, or a couple of critical guys failing to assert themselves, and Baldelli will quickly find himself short on options he can trust. THE BOTTOM LINE Last summer the Twins traded away one of the 10 most valuable relievers in baseball (according to fWAR), whom they still controlled in 2019. They dealt him to Houston, one of the teams they will ostensibly be competing against for the AL pennant this year. The Astros just signed him to a two-year, $17.5 million extension, indicating he'll be a building block for their elite bullpen going forward. And most damningly, the Twins failed to replace Pressly during the offseason with any kind of proven, high-impact asset to bolster the back-end of their pen. Their lone addition was a 33-year-old non-tender whose guaranteed salary was docked by health concerns. Oh, and the guy who will be pulling the strings has zero experience managing a bullpen. Same for both of his rookie pitching coaches. By nature, bullpens are highly volatile and unpredictable. There was nothing Minnesota's front office could've realistically done to establish this unit as any kind of "sure thing," but their efforts to shore it up seem woefully deficient. They are pinning their hopes on a whole lot of gambles playing out right, and Twins fans are too jaded from past trauma to feel much confidence in that outcome. What's most vexing about this situation is that the Twins have otherwise developed a pretty solid roster with legitimate potential. There ain't much more frustrating than building leads and watching them slip away in the latter parts of games. Unfortunately, this club seems destined to make that a routine occurrence if their planned power trio doesn't gel in the late innings, or the various questionable parts surrounding them fall the wrong way. The good news, I suppose, is that it's easier to upgrade relief pitching in-season than just about any other position. *** Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Catcher Twins 2019 Position Analysis: First Base Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Second Base Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Third Base Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Shortstop Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Left Field Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Center Field Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Right Field Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Designated Hitter Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Starting Pitcher Click here to view the article

If you want to go by the numbers (which clearly you do if you're high on Wells), I'm curious why you think Thorpe is overrated. He's a year younger than Wells and was dominating hitters at AA/AAA last year while Tyler spent most of his season at Single-A. The "prospects" listed are based on likelihood of making an impact, not proximity.

Key thing to note: Even though Kepler's batting average dropped by 20 pts from the previous season, his OBP went up by 4 points. The decline in BA owes to a .224 BABIP that was one of the lowest in the league, and almost 50 points below his previous career mark. If he bats even .250 while maintaining his walk rate, he suddenly has an OBP in the .350 range.

FT. MYERS, FL – Was Rocco Baldelli's starting lineup on Monday a preview of the one we'll see at Target Field on Opening Day? The manager played coy when asked postgame about the lede dancing through every reporter's head, but given that Baldelli sent out his A-team against Boston and we're only 10 days away from March 28th, the evidence speaks for itself. Let's examine the merits of each hitter, with respect to his placement in the lineup for Monday's 4-1 win over the Red Sox.Leading Off: Max Kepler Kepler has started 375 major-league games, and he has batted leadoff in a grand total of zero. In fact, it's the only lineup spot where he's never seen his name written in. But this spring he has found himself atop the order frequently. He was there Monday in Fort Myers, and he will be again Tuesday in Sarasota when the Twins face Baltimore. In the past, Kepler has profiled as a poor fit for leadoff duties, so it's easy enough to see why he hasn't been used there. But his progression last year – namely in terms of plate discipline and at-bat quality, with his BB-rate rising dramatically – changes things. So does the lack of natural leadoff options elsewhere on the roster. After the game, Baldelli made it sound like this new assignment might stick. "We saw this as an opportunity to get him into a spot where we could take advantage of some of his strengths," he explained. "He’s taken to it very well, he’s had very positive comments and remarks with all of us on the idea, and I think it’s something that we’re gonna see going forward." Batting Second: Jorge Polanco Polanco is the other most logical leadoff option, but as a switch-hitter with excellent contact skills, he might fit better in the two-hole. At least, this appears to be Baldelli's leaning. Polanco leads all Twins hitters in sacrifice hits over the past two years with 10, which is helpful to the extent his manager wants to use that tactic. Last year at Baseball Prospectus, Aaron Gleeman wrote about the evolving view of #2 hitters around the league, noting that impact bats have replaced the conventional "bat handlers." In a sense, Polanco brings the best of both worlds. He has strong bat control and can lay down a bunt, but he's also a discerning hitter (he led the team in pitches per plate appearance last year, surpassing even Joe Mauer) with some pop. You really couldn't go wrong with either arrangement of Polanco and Kepler in the top two spots, but I can see the wisdom in Baldelli's thinking. Batting Third: Nelson Cruz Pretty simple and straightforward here. Teams usually bat their best hitter and run producer third, where RISP opportunities tend to be most plentiful. Cruz is clearly the Twins' best hitter and run producer, averaging an .873 OPS and 93 RBIs over the past 10 seasons. He still hasn't gone deep yet this spring – his opportunities have been limited as the Twins have eased the 38-year-old into action – but he came very close on Monday, driving a ball to the deepest part of the park in left-center and settling for an RBI double off the wall. Watching the guy take a few rounds of batting practice will leave no doubt that his prodigious power is still very much intact. Batting Fourth: Eddie Rosario Last spring, I noted that Rosario doesn't really fit the physical mold of a cleanup hitter. But Baldelli, like Paul Molitor before him, looks at Rosie and sees one. He might not have the imposing stature of a Cruz or Miguel Sano, but Rosario's incredible power remains undeniable. He led the Twins in home runs with 24 last year and he's tied for the team lead this spring with four. Here's how his first at-bat against Red Sox starter Nathan Eovaldi went on Monday: Pitch 1: Rosario is just early on a fastball and sends an absolute rocket down the right field line, but it twists foul and sails out of play. Pitch 2: Called strike Pitch 3: Rosario drives another one to right, but this one stays fair and travels forever, eventually bouncing off the rooftop of a bar well beyond the fence He's aggressive and highly dangerous. It also bears noting that Rosario grounded into just three double plays in 133 opportunities last year – the lowest percentage (3%) on the team after Robbie Grossman and Tyler Austin. So that's handy when coming up after potentially your three best OBP guys. Batting Fifth: Marwin Gonzalez On the surface, this seems like a somewhat odd choice. Gonzalez isn't the type of pure slugger you often find in the fifth spot in the order, but he does have power – he hit 16 homers last year after launching a career-high 23 in 2017. More importantly, he's a solid all-around switch hitter who's equally effective from both sides (.740 OPS as LHB, .730 as RHB). This creates late-game matchup problems for an opposing manager trying to navigate the middle of Minnesota's lineup. Wanna go with a righty to try and neutralize Cruz? Okay, the reliever will have to deal with lefties Rosario and Gonzalez next. Want to use a righty against Cruz, then swap in a lefty for Rosario? Okay, now you've got righty-swinging Gonzalez due up, followed by two more RH bats. Batting Sixth: C.J. Cron Next up is Cron, who's coming off a 30-HR campaign for Tampa. While Austin has commanded much of the attention this spring, with his towering blasts and precarious roster footing, Cron has actually outperformed him with an extremely well rounded effort; even after Monday's 0-for-3, he is batting .333 with a .981 OPS, and his four walks are second only to Kepler (5) among players likely to make the roster. Last year with the Rays, a majority of Cron's starts came in either the #2 or #4 spots, so if he's hitting sixth for the Twins regularly that's probably a pretty good sign. Last year, the #6 spot in Minnesota's lineup produced a .662 OPS, and in 2017 it was .705. Needless to say, getting a bat like Cron's (.816 OPS in 2018, .772 career) in there regularly could make a big difference. Batting Seventh: Jonathan Schoop In 2017, his best season as a big-leaguer by far, Schoop posted a .338 OBP, buoyed by a .293 average. Those were both career highs by a significant margin, so even if he rebounds, it's probably more realistic to expect something closer to his career .294 OBP. He can be a potent hitter when he's locked in, but generally Schoop makes a ton of outs, meaning it's only sensible to keep him lower in the order. Batting him seventh reduces the impact of all those outs while still enabling his power to shine behind a string of quality bats. Across MLB last year, #7 hitters slashed .240/.307/.390. Schoop seems like a reasonable bet to at least approximate that production. Batting Eighth: Jason Castro This is simple enough. Castro is the least proficient hitter in the Twins lineup (though not terrible by the standards of his position), so you hide him near the bottom of the order. There's a case to be made for batting him ninth but, for the time being, I like the approach Baldelli seems to be taking there... Batting Ninth: Byron Buxton The #9 spot is sometimes referred to as the second leadoff hitter, because he will frequently bat ahead of your finest bats atop the lineup. Buxton showed again on Monday why he's the kind of dynamic player you want on base for guys like Kepler, Polanco and Cruz – he collected two hits, stole two bases, and also tagged up to take third on a fly ball to right. He's an energizing force at the bottom of the order. "He's a really talented guy that can just do so many different things," Baldelli marveled after the game. At some point, he'll hopefully move up to a higher spot. But given Buxton's recent history of struggles and lapses, it makes sense to limit his exposure and pressure out of the gates. And even in a somewhat reduced capacity, Buck can still be the most exciting, riveting, must-watch #9 hitter in all of baseball. Click here to view the article

I don't have a super specific definition, but from my view there are ~30 #1 starters and maybe a dozen aces. I see an "ace" as a guy who I'd be comfortable with in Game 1 of a playoff series. I guess that's the simplest way to put it.

Nowhere has the reforging of this team's identity over the past half-decade been more apparent than in the starting rotation. Five years ago they sported one of the most extreme contact-heavy units imaginable, and in 2019 they're lining up a parade of strikeout artists. Now, the Twins will seek to establish their new identity behind Wes Johnson, whom they tapped as their big-splash addition in an offseason otherwise quiet on the pitching front.Projected Starters: Jose Berrios, Kyle Gibson, Michael Pineda, Jake Odorizzi, Martin Perez Depth: Adalberto Mejia, Stephen Gonsalves, Kohl Stewart, Zack Littell, Chase De Jong Prospects: Brusdar Graterol, Jhoan Duran, Lewis Thorpe, Blayne Enlow, Gonsalves THE GOOD It's been a long time since the Twins have boasted this kind of quality atop their rotation. Berrios and Gibson each ranked among the top 15 American League starters in WAR last year (per FanGraphs), and both are poised to sustain their excellence on the backing of legitimate high-powered stuff. Their respective bursts of brilliance were balanced by stretches of steady solidness, leading to overall results that were well above average. And each proved admirably durable, answering the call every fifth day and setting new career highs for workload while tossing almost 200 innings apiece. A pair of stallions fronting the rotation is nice obviously, but it's not unprecedented for the modern Twins. Two years ago they had Berrios breaking out alongside Ervin Santana. Going back a little further, to the last playoff team, Carl Pavano and Francisco Liriano presented a memorable pairing. But what the Twins lacked in both those instances was a viable third horse. In Pineda, they might finally have one. After rehabbing him from Tommy John surgery in 2018, the Twins are now looking to cash in on their $10 million investment from a year ago. When healthy, Pineda is a big bad man pumping mid-90s heat from a 6-foot-7 frame, piling up whiffs and strikeouts at rates that overshadow Berrios or Gibson. The back part of the rotation is less distinguished, but not without intrigue. Odorizzi averaged a strikeout per inning last year and was perfectly serviceable in his worst MLB season. He's playing for a contract at age 29. Perez seemed like a low-wattage pickup but is raising eyebrows with mid-90s heat (and strong results) in spring camp. Even when accentuating their positives, we must acknowledge the uncertainty with players like Pineda and Perez, which is why depth looms large. And while you can knock the dearth of established credentials in Minnesota's second starter tier, the reality is that this inexperience is a necessary evil. If calamity strikes the Twins rotation, it's a sign the season is probably not headed anywhere meaningful. In that scenario, the team needs to get extended looks at pitchers like Gonsalves, Stewart, Mejia and Littell. These are all respectable talents with strong minor-league résumés, ready for their MLB shots. While contention is a hopeful aspiration for Minnesota this year, the absolute imperative is to gain more clarity around what they have going forward, especially in a rotation that is almost totally undefined after 2019. And these guys are no scrubs. Each of them offers his own legitimate level of promise, especially with an innovative new pitching coach on hand. Stewart is a former top draft pick with sinking stuff as heavy as any hurler you'll find. Gonsalves has a 2.46 ERA in the minors and is catching eyes with increased velocity this spring. Mejia has looked capable in every MLB stint. Littell pitched his way to a big-league debut at age 22. Thorpe, who has yet to get his first chance in the majors, is another prospect with real upside who's close. I can't remember the Twins ever having this degree of first-level depth. If multiple injuries strike the rotation there is certainly no assurance this starting corps will fare well, but there will at least be value in giving starts to the replacements. THE BAD Unless Berrios or Gibson take a step forward, there's no real ace in this deck. The Twins are lacking compared to pretty much every other contender when it comes to a #1 starter. One of their highest-ceiling options is evidently out of the picture for 2019, with Fernando Romero billed for the bullpen. Even the best-case scenarios for guys like Stewart and Mejia and Gonsalves slate them more as middle-of-rotation guys than frontliners. It wouldn't be stunning to see Berrios or Gibson (or even Pineda) graduate to that top tier of starters, but there's no tangible reason to expect it. And realistically, the Twins probably shouldn't be counting on much from Pineda or Perez, given their recent histories. You might lump Odorizzi into that group also. Their extended mix of starting pitchers is respectable, and very possibly the best Minnesota has carried into a season since the division title days. But it's not flashy or fierce, relative to those clubs the Twins are trying to pass – namely the Indians, who project as vastly superior. THE BOTTOM LINE Among players lined up for the Opening Day rotation, only one (Berrios) is under team control after this year. The Twins have an option on Perez, which could prove sneaky beneficial given that he's only 27 and throwing as well in camp as ever, but we're talking about a guy who posted a 6.22 ERA last year. If none of the expiring contracts (Gibson, Pineda, Odorizzi) prove worth extending, and no one emerges from the crop of borderline Triple-A arms, the Twins will find themselves searching for pitching answers via the free agent and trade markets that they steadfastly eschewed this past winter. So the long-term outlook here is somewhat questionable. But for the immediate future, this team has no shortage of worthwhile arms to trot out for starts. You've gotta really lean toward the bright side to see a unit that's anything more than average, but if the offense holds up its end, maybe that's all the Twins need. *** Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Catcher Twins 2019 Position Analysis: First Base Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Second Base Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Third Base Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Shortstop Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Left Field Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Center Field Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Right Field Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Designated Hitter Click here to view the article

Ahhh yes! Molitor totally slipped my mind. Maybe I should've said they've only once signed a more accomplished slugger. I think Cruz is more accomplished than he was.

When you're the DH, all you need to do is hit. Which is good news for Nelson Cruz because that's all he does. In the past six years, he's been an All-Star five times, and the one year he missed out, he hit 43 home runs. Only once in my lifetime have the Twins signed a more accomplished hitter as a free agent, and it worked out supremely well. Can Cruz follow in the footsteps of Jim Thome with a legendary late-career pitstop?Projected Starter: Nelson Cruz Likely Backup: Willians Astudillo Depth: Miguel Sano, Tyler Austin, Wilin Rosario Prospects: Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, Brent Rooker THE GOOD Cruz projects as far-and-away the best hitter in the Minnesota lineup. His production last year alone – 37 home runs, 97 RBIs, .850 OPS – towers over any single season on the résumé of any other Twins hitter, and it was his "worst" of the last five. Even conservative projections foresee monster output from the veteran slugger in 2019. He's 38, so there are naturally questions about how age might factor, but he hasn't shown too many signs of slowing down. His average exit velocity was fifth-highest in the majors last year, and while his batting average did drop off (the result of a career-low .264 BABIP), there were no major changes in whiff rate or push/pull ratio to indicate his swing was falling behind. Additionally, metrics say he's far better suited to his new home at Target Field than Safeco. So, from all appearances, it is go time for one of baseball's most consistently excellent offensive players. The Twins signed him to a stunningly team-friendly pact, so they'll have the option to bring him back for $12 million in 2020. Even if decline sets in rapidly for Cruz, or his sparkling run of durability (144+ games in each of the past five years) comes to an end, the Twins have no shortage of bats waiting in tow. Astudillo is just itching for regular ABs anywhere he can get 'em. If the Twins can find a way to keep Austin, he's a tailor-made slugging DH. Jake Cave, who figures to be a fourth outfielder, could form a semi-platoon as he slashed .287/.335/.509 against righties as a rookie. Marwin Gonzalez will theoretically not have an assigned defensive position after Sano comes back. And Sano himself has always seemed destined for DH duty at some point. Kirilloff and Larnach both loom in the minors. THE BAD The Twins seem to have landed themselves one of the most respected, feared and reliable hitters in the league, at an unbelievable bargain. Which prompts the question: why? Cruz turns 39 in July. While there have been no conspicuous signs of breakdown, he's getting to that age where it can happen in a hurry. This surely played a part in his lukewarm market. So did his inability to play any defensive position, cutting out half of potential bidders. But still, the man leads baseball in home runs over the past half-decade and he was a monster last year. He's been consistently dominant, and has a tremendous clubhouse rep. Not only were the Twins able to get him on their desired one-year guarantee, but they tacked on a team option to make it even more favorable. It might just be a perfect confluence of circumstances, where the market was weird and every other AL team felt good enough about their DH situations to pass. But until we see Cruz get out there and pick up where he left off, we'll have to wonder why the lack of demand. Though the situations are wildly different, it's hard not to see some parallel with Logan Morrison a year ago. THE BOTTOM LINE The Twins have come a long way since the days of grasping for straws at the designated hitter spot. They honestly would've looked pretty decent here without Cruz, but needless to say, injecting one of the league's most respected bats brings the team's DH strength to a whole new level. The farm system is chock full of upcoming quality bats with positions TBD, so even if things don't work out with Cruz, there isn't much reason for concern. *** Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Catcher Twins 2019 Position Analysis: First Base Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Second Base Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Third Base Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Shortstop Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Left Field Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Center Field Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Right Field Click here to view the article

That's a good question. I don't really know why I put him there, since he's both a long-term sleeper and not an RF (as of yet). I think he might've spilled over from another section. I'll remove him. I don't think any other player on the Twins roster has the same level of statistical likelihood for an impending breakout.

The Twins have used two of their past three first-round draft picks on right fielders, and both now rank among their top five prospects. Jake Cave returns from a tremendous rookie showing. And Max Kepler is now entrenched with a fresh five-year contract extension. Accounting for both current and future outlook, no position is in better shape for the Twins than right field. Let's dive in.Projected Starter: Max Kepler Likely Backup: Jake Cave Depth: Eddie Rosario, LaMonte Wade Jr., Michael Reed Prospects: Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, Brent Rooker THE GOOD Kepler is coming off a breakout season. It didn't show up on the offensive stat sheet but by any defensive measurement, the third-year player took a star turn. SABR's Defensive Index ratings (SDI) pegged him as the American League's third-best fielder in right, behind only Gold Glove winner Mookie Betts and runner-up Aaron Judge. FanGraphs' Ultimate Zone Rating had him second behind Betts. At the Minnesota Twins Diamond Awards, Kepler was recognized as the team's defensive player of the year. Not only was Kepler a standout in right field, but he also looked quite sharp during stints in center. Given Byron Buxton's history of injuries, that's a valuable capability, and one that magnifies the importance of depth behind Kepler in right. On that front, the Twins happen to have another guy who was recognized at the Diamond Awards: Jake Cave, most outstanding rookie. When both were on the field last year, it was usually Cave in center and Kepler in right (Paul Molitor loved his continuity), but I suspect roles we be reversed in the event of Buxton's absence this summer. Cave is better suited for right and his powerful bat certainly played there last year as he slashed .269/.316/.481 with 13 homers and 45 RBIs in 91 games. Not a bad backup plan. But of course, we're all hoping Buxton stays in center and Kepler holds down his post in right field, where he offers an interesting mix of steady baseline production and simmering potential. On the surface, Kepler's 2018 season at the plate looked like more of the same. His .727 OPS was nearly identical to his .732 mark coming in. In 611 plate appearances, he hit 20 home runs and 30 doubles – all in line with his career norms. Yet, a deeper look shows us that Kepler drastically increased his launch angle and, as a result, hit way more fly balls than ever before. This didn't manifest in his production, largely because of a career-low .232 BABIP (it was in fact the third-lowest number among all qualified MLB hitters). Luck-based outcomes rise and fall, but the kinds of swing adjustments leading to increased elevation are bound to pay long-term dividends. So too are Kepler's advancements with plate discipline. Last season saw him post career bests in K% and BB% – both by significant margins. His BB/K ratio ranked among the top 10 in the AL, sandwiched between MVP candidates Andrelton Simmons and Jose Altuve. So what we've got here is a pristine athlete, entering his age-26 season, emerging as an elite defensive outfielder and showing every sign of an impending offensive breakout. That's not just my homerish opinion, it's a conclusion of any objective analysis. Which makes it all the more surprising the Twins were able to strike such a team-friendly extension. The outfielder's camp is surely aware of all these indicators, but his words upon signing the deal appear to ring true: "Honestly, I’m the type that would play for the minimum." His long-term entrenchment could quickly create a logjam, with the organization's #1 prospect and 2018 first-rounder rising fast in right field. But the Twins will happily deal with that "dilemma" once they get there. THE BAD Through three seasons and 1,600 plate appearances, Kepler has been an astonishingly consistent hitter. Sure, there have been isolated streaks and slumps, just like for any other player. But from year to year, his OPS has always ultimately fallen within seven points of his career .730 benchmark. So while we can look at the underlying indicators of his 2018 season and forecast improvement (every projection system does), we do have to contend with the reality that Kepler hasn't yet demonstrated he can be more than a slightly below-average hitter for his position. Granted, he also hasn't given us reason to expect any less than that, so the downside here is fairly minimal. Packaged up with his top-notch D and outfield versatility, Kepler's unspectacular standard production still makes him a solid regular. THE BOTTOM LINE I hesitate to use the phrase "embarrassment of riches," but only because it's an overused phrase. It's very accurate here. The Twins are loaded in right field. Their starter is one of the best defenders in the majors, and seemingly verging on an offensive breakthrough at age 26. He's also under ultra-reasonable control through 2023 at least. The backup, Cave, is coming off an excellent rookie year. Kirilloff, Larnach and/or Rooker could legitimately be knocking on the door late this summer. Unless multiple things go awry, the Twins will soon be trying to sort through outstanding bats standing ready at this position. Which brings to mind another overused, yet fitting, adage: Good problem to have. *** Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Catcher Twins 2019 Position Analysis: First Base Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Second Base Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Third Base Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Shortstop Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Left Field Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Center Field Click here to view the article

A year ago the outlook was so bright. We were gushing about Byron Buxton's off-the-charts Statcast readings, his grand finish in 2017, and his MVP-level potential for the coming season. But rather than showcasing his almost unrivaled upside, Buxton's 2018 campaign did the opposite. Now we unfortunately must ponder what center field would look like without him. The Twins recently made a key move to protect themselves long-term in this regard.Projected Starter: Byron Buxton Likely Backup: Max Kepler Depth: Jake Cave, Michael Reed, Tanner English Prospects: Gilberto Celestino, Gabriel Maciel, Misael Urbina THE GOOD Buxton looks poised to take the world by storm. It's not just his red-hot start in Grapefruit League play (7-for-20 with three home runs in eight games) after he finished on a scorching streak in Triple-A last year (.365/.400/.596 in 12 August games). These are reflections of what I suspect to be a deeper truth: The 25-year-old has found his focus, after a trying and tumultuous year, and is finally ready to pull it together for good. The stakes are higher than ever for Buxton personally. Everything we've seen from him since last summer – his words, his muscled up physique, his early exhibition performance – has suggested that he is confronting this challenge with all he's got. We've seen glimmers of high-end offensive potential from Buxton, who owns a .310/.364/.537 slash line in 100 games at Triple-A and posted an .893 OPS after the break in 2017, but here's the thing: He doesn't need to be a stud hitter to deliver enormous value. He has a good case as both the game's best defender and base runner. Even if he hits up to his .237/.295/.406 career MLB line entering last season, he'll be a quality regular, and of course there's much room for improvement beyond that. But, in the event that Buxton's pitch recognition issues continue to dog him, or he misses significant time with injury again, the Twins are now insured for the long haul. Kepler was a very fine right fielder last year, but he also showed well during his time in center, and this undoubtedly played into the front office's calculus when locking him up on a five-year extension last month. If Kepler can be at least average defensively in center (and it sure looks that way), his unflinching rate of production – which hasn't wavered much from his career .233/.313/.417 line in three years as a big-leaguer – would look far more appealing. The average American League CF had an OPS 50 pointers lower than the average RF last year. While a scenario with Kepler playing center and Alex Kirilloff taking over right may sound appealing at the moment, any outcome that doesn't involve Buxton as a centerpiece for this team would be a huge letdown. His dynamic capabilities in center field and on the bases are unparalleled in terms of practical impact, as well as entertainment value. One other element worth noting here is that Royce Lewis, the organization's top prospect, still could end up transitioning to center field. That'd create an interesting dilemma if Buxton gets on track, but for now Royce feels like a safer bet to stick at short. THE BAD Hopefully Buxton will be a lot less familiar with the Injured List than he was with the Disabled List. Here's the number of games he's been able to play in (majors and minors combined) each year since his full-season debut in 2013: 2013: 125 games 2014: 31 games 2015: 118 games 2016: 141 games 2017: 143 games 2018: 64 games Last year was obviously a nightmarish medley of health woes: April migraines led to a broken toe on a rehab stint, and later Buck was plagued by left wrist issues. The last part is most worrisome, because his wrist nagged him into the end of the summer, and it's the same one he's had serious problems with in the past. It's silly to suggest a pristine athletic specimen like Buxton is "fragile" (especially now that he's added more bulk to protect himself), but he does have some pre-existing concerns in addition to a reckless and hazardous style of play. So that partially fuels the uncertainty at this position. The more concrete stumbling block is Buxton's plate discipline. This is the one thing other than health that can derail him. The outfielder's approach was egregiously bad last year, and while it can surely be attributed in part to physical impediments, this wasn't exactly new for him. Nothing encapsulates Buxton's outright bafflement at the plate in 2018 better than this stat: after falling behind in the count 1-2 (which happened in more than one-third of his plate appearances for the Twins), he went 0-for-33 with 21 strikeouts. Altogether Buxton struck out 28 times and drew three walks with Minnesota last year, and even in Triple-A where he hit well, his K/BB ratio was 42-to-9. Down the stretch, as he put up a .996 OPS in 55 August plate appearances for the Red Wings, Buxton drew one walk. It has become blindingly clear that Buxton's indiscriminately aggressive attack, so successful in the minors, won't hack it in the big leagues. Pitchers at the highest level have eagerly taken advantage of his habits and tendencies to devastating effect. THE BOTTOM LINE I believe in Byron Buxton. He looks ready to put last year's unthinkable catastrophe behind and firmly establish himself as a star of the game. But setting such optimistic beliefs aside, and accepting the reality of an injury-prone player with a career 32% K-rate and 7% BB-rate, further patience may be warranted. The Twins will live with further growing pains at the plate, given all the value Buck provides elsewhere, and the knowledge that sometimes it just takes a while (see: Hicks, Aaron). But neither team nor player can dictate health outcomes, which have to this point been brutally cruel. Knowing this, it's awfully nice to have a guy like Kepler around, as well as a few exciting talents in the lower levels of the minors. *** Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Catcher Twins 2019 Position Analysis: First Base Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Second Base Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Third Base Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Shortstop Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Left Field Click here to view the article

Rosario was hitting .300 with 19 HR at the end of July last year. Not at all unthinkable he could've gotten there if not for the quad injury.

Indeed. Despite his history of extreme versatility, Gonzalez has notably never started a game in RF. So Rosario will be listed as a backup there and Marwin won't.

In 2018, Eddie Rosario cemented himself as one of the best-hitting outfielders in the game. But with all the buzz around Nelson Cruz's arrival, Byron Buxton's big spring, and Miguel Sano's (delayed) redemption tour, Eddie seems to be somewhat of a forgotten factor in the Twins offensive equation. Something tells me he won't stay out of the spotlight for long.Projected Starter: Eddie Rosario Likely Backup: Jake Cave Depth: Marwin Gonzalez, Michael Reed, LaMonte Wade Prospects: Brent Rooker, Akil Baddoo, Wade THE GOOD Rosario is the reigning Twins Daily MVP. He followed up a breakout 2017 campaign with an extremely similar follow-up, albeit one that skidded to a halt before the finish line due to injury. At his peak last summer, Rosario was an unstoppable force, torturing opposing hurlers who had no answer for his relentless attack at the plate. In early May, he hit six home runs over a 10-game stretch. We all remember the three-homer outburst one Sunday in June that culminated with a walk-off against Cleveland. When he's in those zones, Rosario is liable to drive any pitch, anywhere, out of the park. And his competitive confidence also manifests in other ways, from crazy defensive gems to game-changing plays on the bases. The positives of Rosario's brazen aggressiveness have always been counterbalanced, somewhat, by the negatives. But last year, his gambles – at the plate, on the bases, in the outfield – seemed to pay off more than ever. And that's not coincidence. At age 27, with 500 major-league games under his belt, Rosario's at that perfect point where prime athleticism mixes with ample experience and seasoning. With this in mind, it wouldn't be shocking to see Rosario take another step forward. He absolutely has the ability to put up a .300+ average with 30+ home runs. But even if he holds steady he's a quality bat for the middle of the lineup, as well as an energizing spark plug in all phases. Should he miss time, the Twins are set up well with Cave and Gonzalez, who has spent more time in left field than any other position over the last two years. Reed is also in camp also a solid backup candidate, though he's out of options. In the event of a prolonged absence for Rosario, the Twins might want to consider giving Wade and his bountiful OBP a look. THE BAD Tough to find a lot of downside at this position. Rosario has had his bouts with strained muscles, battling a triceps issue last spring and a quad issue in the second half that eventually ended his season. He's not without injury risk, but leads the Twins in plate appearances over the past two years, so... not a huge consideration. And the Twins are well equipped with depth in that event. Rosario is earning $4.19 million this year in his first turn at arbitration. He's under team control through 2021. At that point, if we get there without an extension or trade, any number of promising outfield prospects may have emerged as a logical successor. THE BOTTOM LINE For the present and foreseeable future, left field belongs to Eddie Rosario. The ferocious free-swinger brings palpable excitement along with his valuable contributions at the plate and in the field. Like the last four positions we've covered, Gonzalez's addition provides a crucial depth boost here. But unlike the infield spots, the Twins have no shortage of additional options in the outfield corners, which is helpful since Gonzalez figures to be locked at third for at least the first month. *** Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Catcher Twins 2019 Position Analysis: First Base Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Second Base Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Third Base Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Shortstop Click here to view the article