Nick Nelson

Average payroll in MLB over the past 5 years (via BP): 2014: $115M 2015: $125M 2016: $130M 2017: $136M 2018: $135M The Twins are currently at $98 million. They have money to spend. Lots.

He lost less than 1 MPH on both his FB and CB. With that drop, he still allowed a .230 batting average and struck out 80 hitters in 67 innings. Sure, I'd love to get Kimbrel. I'd love to get Ottavino. But in practical terms: people have to want to sign here, and the Twins are clearly shying away from multi-year commitments. Allen just makes a ton of sense from that perspective, and after Kimbrel/Ottavino he's the best bet in free agency from my view.

You might be right. What I'm saying is, why not pay whatever it takes to get him on a one-year deal? If someone else is offering 2/16 he'd obviously take the 1/14 offer, right? There's basically no cap to what the Twins could offer him on a one-year deal, and it still aligns with their established no-commitments strategy. If Allen is fiercely determined to get a multi-year deal, even at a far lesser annual salary, then maybe the Twins should stay away. That sends all the wrong signals coming off a season like he just had.

After reaching agreement with all of their arbitration eligible players last week, the Twins have solidified their projected 2019 payroll at around $96 million. That's about $30M below where they were last year (which was just below the MLB average), so needless to say they've got spending flexibility. The back end of the bullpen is the clearest need, and in that market, one name stands out as a fairly obvious fit.From 2014 through 2017, Cody Allen was consistently one of the better relievers in baseball. Serving as closer in Cleveland, he averaged 30 saves per season while posting a 2.62 ERA, 2.82 FIP, 1.10 WHIP, and 12.1 K/9 rate. In 2018, at age 29, he took a sizable step back, posting a 4.70 ERA with career highs in WHIP (1.36), BB/9 rate (4.4) and blown saves (5). His strikeouts were down along with his velocity. It was a troubling season for Allen and it couldn't have come at a worse time for him. But these circumstances make him an ideal fit for the Twins, who evidently aren't interested in any long-term commitments this winter. With another typical campaign in 2018, Allen might've been in line for a three- or four-year contract. But his major lapse creates too much risk for any team to make that leap now. Allen's most realistic hope now is for a high-dollar short-term deal, which is exactly what Minnesota's positioned to hand out. That's just one reason this match makes sense. There's also the team's need for a dominant late-inning reliever, and Allen's familiarity with Twins CBO Derek Falvey, who was Cleveland's co-director of baseball operations when the Indians drafted him in 2011. La Velle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune reported a month ago that the Twins were interested in Allen, but obviously nothing has come to fruition as of yet. It's been a slow-moving relief market. Perhaps the right-hander is waiting on Craig Kimbrel and Adam Ottavino – the two names clearly ahead of him in the pecking order – to sign and set precedent. I'm wondering if something like a one-year, $14 million offer might get it done with Allen, who would reel in more than half of his career earnings up to this point (he's totaled about $24 mil) with an opportunity to rebuild value in a prominent role and hit the market again next offseason. The upside here for the Twins is plain to see. But there is downside. It'd mean having $20M-plus tied up in two relievers who were both not very good in 2018. The money isn't really an issue, but the hefty guaranteed contracts mean Allen and Addison Reed will get every chance to earn them, possibly at the expense of worthy younger arms. Adding Allen to a bullpen that includes Reed, Taylor Rogers, Trevor May, and Blake Parker would leave few vacancies. Someone like Trevor Hildenberger, Gabriel Moya or Andrew Vasquez could more easily become blocked even if he proves deserving. The opportunity to try converting a younger starter, like Fernando Romero or Adalberto Mejia, becomes more limited. These aren't necessarily huge stumbling blocks, but they're worth keeping in mind for a team focused on rebuilding via the internal pipeline. Players need opportunities to develop. It's basically a moot point if Allen returns to his pre-2018 form or anything close. He'd significantly upgrade and legitimize Minnesota's bullpen unit. In light of that upside, and given the fact that – even in his down year – Allen's K and whiff rates would've ranked among the best in the Twins bullpen, I think the reward far outweighs the risk here. So I'm only left asking one question: What are we waiting for? Click here to view the article

With all due respect, based on your description of his effort at home plate I'm gonna go ahead and assume you're mischaracterizing whatever comments he made. It takes more than one player to win a ballgame. Cuddyer had one of the team's two hits and was the only one to move past first base. If you wanna criticize the guy do so with some level of intellectual honesty, please.

I'd love to hear Thrylos as the announcer for Game 7 of the '91 World Series. "Here's the pitch... lazy drive to center field... Puckett ranging back... takes a half-hearted leap at the wall... ohhh, looks like it somehow managed to land in his glove. He bounces off the wall and throws a wimpy five-hopper back toward the infield."

"Lackadaisical"

Today at Twins Daily we are excited to announce that Michael Cuddyer will be our special guest at the Winter Meltdown, now less than two weeks away. (Last-chance tickets go on sale Tuesday morning.) For a couple of reasons, Cuddyer feels like a fitting choice to have on-stage as we look ahead to the 2019 season. The story of his playing career holds acute relevance for this year's team.Cuddyer, who played in 1,139 games for Twins and was inducted into the team's Hall of Fame in 2017, is known for many things: His dimpled smile. His cannon arm. His magic tricks in the clubhouse. His slugging prowess. From my view, there are two specific elements of Cuddyer the player that are worth reflecting on for Twins fans at this moment in time. #1: Cuddyer is a poster child for the circuitous path to stardom As a high school shortstop in Chesapeake, VA, Cuddyer emerged as one of the top prep talents in the country. The Twins selected him ninth overall in 1997. He went straight to Single-A and raked, ascending the minor-league ranks rapidly and bypassing Triple-A entirely on his way to an MLB debut at age 22. From 1999 through 2003 he was a perennial Top 100 prospect according to Baseball America, peaking at #17 in his last year of eligibility. Cuddyer's initial ascent to the big leagues was as smooth as could be. His acclimation there was anything but. From 2001 through 2005, he yo-yoed back and forth between the majors and minors, continually crushing Triple-A but failing to establish himself at the highest level. Not until he was 27 did Cuddyer finally turn the corner, posting an .867 OPS in 2006 with 24 homers, 41 doubles and 109 RBIs in a career-high 150 games. He was a key component of a team that won 96 games. From there he went on to slash .281/.347/.468 and hit 165 home runs over the remainder of his career, making two All-Star teams. It's helpful to remember this path as we look at the various current Twins players who seem to be stuck in neutral (or worse). Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano, like Cuddyer, were both highly touted prospects that arrived in the majors at a young age but have failed to gain full traction. They're both 25 now. Max Kepler, who follows Cuddyer in Minnesota's right field lineage, may be a more apt parallel. Like Cuddyer, Kepler earned himself a September call-up at age 22 following a monster year at Double-A. And like Cuddyer, Kepler's MLB production stagnated in the years following: Michael Cuddyer, OPS+ 2002: 95 2003: 97 2004: 100 2005: 97 2006: 124 Max Kepler, OPS+ 2016: 96 2017: 95 2018: 96 2019: ? Granted, Kepler hasn't really had to fight for his playing time like Cuddyer did; he's been a regular ever since he arrived, despite the unspectacular offensive numbers. This is, in part, because of his elevated defensive value. But don't despair too much about the lack of offensive progression so far. Out of Cuddyer's 17 Wins Above Replacement accumulated in the big leagues, 15 came after he turned 26. Kepler turns 26 on February 10th. #2: Cuddyer was a model of defensive versatility When I think about Cuddyer playing the field, I picture him out in right, gathering a carom off the Metrodome's baggy and spinning around to rifle it toward the infield. It's easy to forget, now, that he moved all over the place. In his career, Cuddyer played at least 500 innings at five different positions (RF, LF, 1B, 3B, 2B). He wasn't great at all of them, but having the option to plug him in at so many spots was a major convenience for Ron Gardenhire. The current Twins will need to embrace this kind of flexibility, to the extent they can. Rostering a full-time DH like Nelson Cruz puts a further crunch on what'll likely be a short bench. Rocco Baldelli's life will be made easier if some players are able to help out at multiple positions, as Cuddy did. This is another possible connection to Kepler. I've suggested before that it'd be wise to get him up to speed at first base, given his past experience there. Eddie Rosario's brief but flashy appearance in the infield last year may have had substance (he did play second for a spell in the minors). Jonathan Schoop would be an even bigger asset if he could step in at third here and there to spell Sano. I'd like to hear about how Cuddyer kept his skills sharp enough that even at age 32, in his last season with the Twins (2011), he was able to make 41 starts at first base and 17 at second, in addition to his 77 games in right field. I also want to hear about how he dealt with the discouragement of setbacks and sideways progress over four years between reaching the majors and becoming a true bona fide big-leaguer. These insights are not only compelling to the longtime Twins fan in me who enjoys reminiscing upon the team's greatest era of my lifetime, but also for the forward-looking fan in me who sees similar scenarios playing out before my eyes. Fortunately, I'll have a chance to hear Cuddyer talk about these topics and more on January 26th at the Winter Meltdown, along with all of you who are able to attend. For those who aren't, the Q&A session will (hopefully) be available via John and Aaron's podcast. Feel free to share your favorite Cuddyer memories in the comments section – especially if you can connect them to any current Twins narrative. Click here to view the article

I understand this inclination, but I think it's outdated. Has that happened with this current front office? Last year they brought in Erick Aybar for a look but ended up cutting him, even with the Polanco suspension. In 2017 they brought in Ryan Vogelsong and Nick Tepesch, but picked a rookie Adalberto Mejia over both.

Then you give him the option to head to Triple-A, or opt-out and become a free agent again. These kinds of arrangements take place almost every spring. (IF you don't need him anyway because others aren't ready/healthy.) It's a game of musical chairs and someone like Tillman doesn't have a ton of leverage. Compared to other destinations, Minnesota is an attractive destination. No one has a firm grasp on the Twins' final rotation spot, and Pineda is penciled in despite throwing zero MLB innings last year.

Exactly. The Twins made a mistake by pivoting away from the reclamation project and going with the "buy (relatively) high" route instead. Had they just stuck with Sanchez they'd have ended up with a nice asset on their hands. But I'm not totally sure why that anomaly of a situation has any bearing on what we're talking about here. If, say, Chris Tillman comes into camp healthy, and Johnson or Hefner help him solve a few things, he could very well look like the best option for the fifth spot. This is a guy who had a 3.99 ERA in the AL East from 2014-16, and is only 30. So, in that event, you push Mejia and Romero to the bullpen and roll with him, or he fills the spot of someone else who gets hurt. I'm not seeing what's overly complex about this.

I don't understand the mindset that it's preferable to trade a player and guarantee a roster spot (+ $9M) for Gray rather than sign one of the players listed here to a non-guaranteed deal. If Gray has upside then so do a number of these guys. He's been terrible in two of the last three seasons while averaging 130 innings.

It's a fine Triple-A rotation. I just don't wanna be pigeonholed into having one of those guys in the season-opening rotation because I failed to install any legitimate veteran safety valves. To be clear: these deals are mostly just spring-training auditions. I suspect most of the players listed would opt-out if they don't make the team and that's fine. This happens in spring training pretty much every year. I don't see it as an issue. These players don't have guaranteed deals or roster spots so of course they're in it for themselves.

They're not blocking spots. That's the whole point! You don't have to remove anyone from the 40-man roster to add them, and you're not beholden to them in any way. The only way one of these guys beats out a Mejia is if they convince you they're clearly better options. I'm pro-Mejia. I want to see him in that fifth starter role. That's why I don't really want anyone on an MLB deal. But failing to equip yourself with feasible backup options is malpractice.

Personally I'd rather just go with Mejia than guarantee Perez a roster spot. He's not a clear enough upgrade to me. Despite the solid velo his K-rates have been terrible. 4.78 FIP over the past three seasons. If you're talking about adding him as a reliever that's another story (though not really germane to this particular thread). Exactly. There is value in experience, and having some track record of actual major-league success. Obviously none of the guys I listed are especially attractive right now (thus the "buy-low" concept) but there's more substantive reason to believe in them -- if healthy -- than someone like Littell or De Jong. If you don't think players like the ones in this article ever turn it around and get back on track, you're just not paying attention. Sanchez last year is as good an example as any.

He was a borderline choice for this list. His age (27) definitely makes him interesting. But I kinda expect him to get an MLB deal somewhere after finishing really strong last year.

What is the risk/downside in signing one or more of these guys to a minors deal? I'll tell you what's risky: going into camp with only what they currently have. In fact it is inexcusably risky. Seven guys with almost zero starting experience between them (or at least almost zero track record of success as a starter). Thorpe and Duffy are not credible contenders for rotation spots.

What if Romero gets hurt in spring training and Mejia doesn't look ready for a starting job after throwing Again, this isn't about pushing the young guys aside or robbing them of opportunities. That's why I'm looking exclusively at non-roster deal candidates.

I believe Miley will require a major-league contract to sign. I'm looking for guys that won't require any commitment – no guaranteed deal, no 40-man roster spot required. All upside, no downside. If the Twins aren't getting Keuchel (and let's be honest, they're not), I'm not sure I wanna guarantee anyone else on the market a job over Mejia or Romero. This isn't an alternative to that. It's about having depth and creating competition for jobs. You want these young guys to earn it, right? Mejia did so over Vogelsong in 2017. Similar concept, except I think these players listed all have more legitimate upside than Vogelsong did.

As we march into mid-January, with spring training suddenly only weeks away, the Twins' roster is coming into focus. Through various avenues, they've supplemented both the offense and the bullpen. If they are to address the rotation, it's looking less likely they'll do so through a major-league contract. That doesn't necessarily rule out an interesting addition though.The Twins haven't signed a starting pitcher of note this offseason, and haven't really been connected to any via rumors. It's becoming apparent the front office is comfortable with a rotation of Jose Berrios, Kyle Gibson, Jake Odorizzi, Michael Pineda and Adalberto Mejia. That's rational. The first four are clearly viable, and Mejia's out of options. (I wouldn't be surprised if Mejia operated as a "primary pitcher" behind an opener. In fact, it'd surprise me if he didn't.) What's needed now is depth. They've got some with Fernando Romero, Stephen Gonsalves, Chase De Jong and others. But they need experience behind the top five. And the way to get it, without having to commit a 40-man spot or guaranteed salary, is a minor-league contract plus spring training invite. With a sizable pool of free agents remaining, and serious question marks attached to many of them, plenty of starters should be available on non-guaranteed deals. The Twins are in good position to attract such players, offering ample opportunity (Mejia's grip on the fifth job isn't exactly ironclad). Here are six starting pitchers who may end up having to settle for minor-league contracts, and look like potential good fits for the Twins: Clay Buchholz, RHP (34) Buchholz is, to me, exactly the type of pitcher Minnesota should be targeting. He's a talented arm whose only risk point is health. Granted, it's a considerable risk point – he's thrown only 105 total innings over the past two years, and his 2018 ended with a worrisome flexor strain – but before he went down he had a 2.01 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 16 starts for Arizona, and his career numbers are rock solid. If he comes into camp healthy and looking good, he's probably the team's best fifth starter option. If he proves to be damaged goods, nothing hurt. Marco Estrada, RHP (35) From 2015-16, Estrada was a fantastic pitcher, posting a 3.30 ERA and 1.08 WHIP over 357 innings in the power-packed AL East. In each season he was one of the stingiest starters in the league when it came to allowing hits. He's fallen off over the past two years (5.27 ERA, 1.40 WHIP) and is hitting the market with his stock way down after posting a 7.17 post-break ERA in 2018. While not always healthy, he's been durable enough to throw 128+ innings every year since 2012. Estrada would be nice to have around in the event of a spring training injury in the rotation. Drew Hutchison, RHP (28) Once upon a time, Hutchison was considered a premier young pitching talent in the game, debuting at age 21 for Toronto after rocketing through the minors. The righty has snuffed out most of his own intrigue through many seasons of poor performance and injuries, but preserved enough to get chances with three different teams in 2018. He's only 28 and would be an interesting low-risk camp project for new pitching coach Wes Johnson. Chris Tillman, RHP (30) Similar deal here. Tillman hasn't shown many promising signs over the past two seasons (8.42 ERA in 120 innings) but from 2012 through 2016 he put up a 3.81 ERA for the Orioles while rarely missing a start. He might be cooked, but what if he's not? What if Wes could help him turn it around? Josh Tomlin, RHP (34) Ken Rosenthal reported last week that the Mets were interested in Tomlin on a non-roster deal, but nothing has come to fruition as of yet. If he doesn't go to New York he'd be a logical target for Minnesota, given the Derek Falvey connection (Tomlin has spent the last nine years in Cleveland). The right-hander was brutal last year, and at his best he's merely an average MLB starter, but as a strike-throwing fly ball pitcher he could benefit from the Twins defense. Ervin Santana, RHP (36) Reunion? Red Sox reporter Chris Cotillo relayed a month ago that Santana was "drawing widespread interest" but "more likely to sign when he feels he is fully healthy later in winter." Presumably he'll put on a showcase within the next month, and if he looks good he might get a big-league deal. If not, he'd make sense for Minnesota. His 2018 was a loss, but we saw how good Santana could be during the balance of his time here. He would infuse veteran familiarity. Then again, this bridge might be burnt after sourness emerged toward the front office late last season. There are plenty of other starters on the market who could land on minor-league deals, including Bartolo Colon, Yovani Gallardo, James Shields and Martin Perez. Any of these names interest you? Or do you still feel the club should aim higher on a guaranteed big-league contract? Click here to view the article

I don't see it. By that same token you could use this quote from Derek Falvey -- “He’s our starting center fielder. That’s who Byron Buxton is. That’s clear to us moving forward." -- in the same way. The team claimed they kept Buxton down in the interest of his long-term health/development, and whether you buy it or not, it's not affected by anything they do now. I understand the skepticism about a contract extension at this point in time, but I personally think the risk is worthwhile for the Twins, and I have a hard time seeing how them saying, "We still believe in you, we're ready to make a $50 million commitment and prove that, otherwise we'll be happy to revisit the topic in a year," would somehow be taken as an insult by Buxton and his agent.

Given that he also had control issues in the minors, where he had zero reason not to trust his stuff, I'm guessing it's mostly the former. As mentioned in the article, that's not all that rare or surprising for a pitcher in his mold. But even marginal improvements in control might make a big difference for Gonsalves.