Nick Nelson

AN EXPLOSIVE OFFENSE Opposing pitchers will feel like they're stepping through a minefield as they attempt to navigate Minnesota's relentless lineup. There is legitimate 20-30 home run potential at every position other than catcher, and even there, the Twins are better equipped offensively than most. This unit offers elite potential, and while it's not too hard to envision them falling short amidst a sea of strikeouts and sinking OBPs, the Twins will at the very least be a formidably powerful bunch. Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA system projects Minnesota to score the sixth-most runs in the American League (739), with nine different players reaching double-digit homers. If things break right in a few places, it's not at all difficult to envision this club setting a modern franchise record for home runs, surpassing the 2017 team's total of 206, and even challenging those historical mid-60s squads led by Harmon Killebrew, Bob Allison and Jimmie Hall (225, in 1963, is the mark to beat). Beyond the massive upside of the offense, what's most tantalizing here is the entertainment value it's poised to deliver. On any particular night at Target Field, attendees could be in for a memorable show. The sheer spectacle of Nelson Cruz uncorking a rocket to the third deck (he consistently ranks among the MLB leaders in exit velocity) or Byron Buxton racing around the bases (he's the single fastest runner in baseball, per Statcast) or Willians Astudillo doing... Willians Astudillo things is worth the price of admission. I think back to those lifeless days last summer when Eddie Rosario and Eduardo Escobar often seemed to be the only pulse in the lineup, and I'm heartened by how far we've come. Granted, injuries are bound to take their tolls, and several hitters – such as Buxton, Jonathan Schoop and Max Kepler – need to prove themselves on varying levels. But there's enough depth here, especially with the late addition of mega-utilityman Marwin Gonzalez, to cover up for quite a few misfires. READ MORE: Breaking Down Rocco Baldelli's Lineup Construction A FOREBODING ROTATION Let's start here: It is not beyond reason that this could be the best, most competitive Twins rotation to come along in quite a while. Jose Berrios and Kyle Gibson were legit upper-echelon pitchers last year. Both have the kinds of bat-missing stuff, plus healthy arms, to warrant confidence. Michael Pineda is a big, gas-throwing force – a former All-Star rookie with a career 3.60 FIP and 1.19 WHIP. Martin Perez has established a firm rep as a stable, perfectly adequate back-end starter – and that outlook now feels almost pessimistic with the way he's thrown this spring. Jake Odorizzi, even if he merely replicates last year's career-worst results, is insanely good for a fifth starter. So, if the Twins are able to prance their way through the minefield with no detonations, they could find themselves looking pristine on the other side. In terms of realistic one-through-five upside, I can't remember a better group. But this landscape, it is riddled with lurking danger. Berrios looks as strong as ever heading into the campaign. But the same can't be said for his counterpart atop the rotation. By his own admission, Gibson hadn't quite gotten back all the weight and strength he wanted by the time he made his final spring start last Friday. He also got absolutely crushed by the Red Sox in said outing. While he's been damn good for the past year-and-a-half, Gibson hardly has the long-term track record to earn unflinching confidence. Even at his best, Pineda has never quite fulfilled his obviously immense potential, and pitchers in their first year off Tommy John have an uninspiring history. Perez, for all the spring buzz, has posted a better-than-average ERA once in the past five seasons, and was a disaster last year. Odorizzi has been trending the wrong direction for a while now, with his ERA+ going from 117 to 108 to 100 to 97. So that's a fair amount of ominous risk even before you account for the inevitability of injuries. Step very carefully. In case of emergency, the reinforcements are ripe with reservations. Stephen Gonsalves and Kohl Stewart both showed glimmers of promise while finishing strong last year, but neither was all that impressive overall. Zack Littell had a roundly rough go in the majors, but he was a 22-year-old second-tier prospect. Lewis Thorpe has yet to get his first shot in the big leagues, but the Twins aren't shy in their ample belief in him, and his minor-league numbers seem to validate it. Some expressed disappointment with Minnesota's offseason approach to the rotation, and I get it. But personally I'm a fan. The only player they added is a 27-year-old with optional control beyond this year, and they've maintained total flexibility going forward, with plenty of capable young arms to sort through in the months ahead. Plus, they've got an innovative new pitching coach on hand whose positive impact is already generating spring buzz. READ MORE: Unlocking Heat: Pitching Coach Wes Johnson and Biomechanics A VOLATILE BULLPEN If you should ever find yourself in an actual minefield, you are advised to get down on your hands and knees, gently probing every inch as you proceed very slowly, and very carefully. Rocco Baldelli might want to master his army crawl for the late innings. The rookie manager's complete lack of experience pulling bullpen strings is compounded by a unit that's direly short on truly safe bets, and even shorter on proven depth. While the Twins can feel good about their bona fide relief ace Taylor Rogers, the lanky lefty is followed by varying degrees of ambiguity. Minnesota's lone offseason addition, Blake Parker, has looked good after drawing minimal interest on the open market. Trevor May has the stuff to dominate at the end of games, but has thrown 68 innings total over the past three seasons. Trevor Hildenberger was Mr. Reliable for his first year's worth of games in a Twins uniform, then a total mess in the 2018 second half. Adalberto Mejia is essentially the sixth starter filling a long-relief role. Ryne Harper is a 30-year-old who's never thrown a pitch in the majors. Opening on the Injured List are Addison Reed, Matt Magill and Gabriel Moya. It says a lot that Reed feels like the least plausible member of that trio to return and make an impact. His unraveling and the (in hindsight) baffling trade of Ryan Pressly last summer have drastically lessened the bullpen's firepower. And in the minors? Fernando Romero is the pivotal figure, of course. The Twins hoped he'd be a weapon out of their bullpen from the get-go, but his spring performance made it apparent he's not ready. Hopefully he'll be able to join up relatively early but it's tough to say how long his acclimation in Rochester might take. Beyond Romero, there are a handful of marginal big-league talents to fall back on, but no savior-type looming. The good news, I suppose, is that it's easier to add in-season help for the bullpen than perhaps any other position. The front office has plenty of financial flexibility and prospect capital to make things happen. At a time where roughly half the league has no real aspiration to contend, the supply/demand ratio should be favorable. But as I look ahead to a season for which I'm mostly giddy with excitement, I can't help but feel apprehension about the spectre of April and May leads evaporating repeatedly, impeding Minnesota's efforts to take advantage of a weakened Cleveland club out of the gates. READ MORE: Closing Time: What is the Pecking Order for Saves in the Twins Bullpen? LOOKING AHEAD It'll be great if the Twins are finally able to leapfrog the Indians in the AL Central and capture their first division title in almost a decade. It's really not all that unlikely an outcome, especially when you factor in Cleveland's early injury woes, and their wavering commitment to firmly retaining their grasp (they were reportedly STILL talking about trading one of their linchpin starters earlier this month). But, realistically, expectations need to be kept in check. This team is led by a 37-year-old manager with zero experience in the role. He is aided by two pitching instructors who've never even been on major-league coaching staffs. Minnesota's outlook is dependent on a variety of breakout and bounceback candidates who mostly lack stable track records. Multiple building-block prospects are still a year or two away. The path ahead is a precarious one. But the Twins will embark upon it with a combination of pure power (both hitting and pitching) and analytical prowess like we've never seen before. One way another, I'm expecting plenty of boom. Hopefully much more of the good kind. *** You can learn about the 2019 team's outlook and depth at every position by perusing the position analysis articles below. And, of course, check back in to Twins Daily each day all season for unparalleled coverage of your favorite team. This is gonna be a fun one. Position-by-Position Analysis for the 2019 Twins Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Catcher Twins 2019 Position Analysis: First Base Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Second Base Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Third Base Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Shortstop Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Left Field Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Center Field Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Right Field Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Designated Hitter Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Starting Pitcher Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Relief Pitcher

Cruz's power is notable from any perspective, but especially in the context of his new franchise. If the slugger merely matches his lowest home run total from the past five seasons (37, in 2018) it'll be the second-highest mark by a Twins hitter since 1970. Only Brian Dozier's total of 42 in 2016 tops it. But Cruz is more than a power hitter. He brings modest patience to a free-swinging lineup. His leadership draws acclaim from all sources, including a guy who built a nice career for himself around similar traits. MLBPA director Tony Clark was at Hammond Stadium on Friday, making his usual spring rounds. When asked about his position on extending the designated hitter rule across the league, after it was noted that someone like Cruz can find a job much more easily with such a role available, Clark went out of his way to praise the Dominican native. "Nelson is as good as they get," Clark said. "I'm not talking about as a hitter; he's one of those too. But I think it's fantastic that you guys will have an opportunity to spend some time with him and see him, and how his leadership qualities manifest in the clubhouse." Rocco Baldelli, still finding his way as he navigates his first spring as a manager, might be especially appreciative of the 14-year veteran's established cred. "He's a pro in the clubhouse. Once he steps on the field, all the work he does pregame, very helpful as a staff member, manager," Baldelli said. "It's a great luxury to have this guy on a team." Of course, it's not surprising to hear folks lauding Cruz's power and presence. One thing that HAS been a little surprising is his spryness and base running savvy at age 38. On Saturday in Sarasota, he had an impressive sequence where he hit a rocket off the left field wall that got back to Baltimore's Trey Mancini in a hurry. He could've easily settled for a single, but instead lowered his head and sprinted toward second, sliding in with a double. That hustle paid off, because on the following play he scampered home on an Eddie Rosario single to center, offsetting his lack of footspeed (which last year ranked 505th out of 549 qualified big-leaguers) with a huge secondary lead that Baldelli raved about postgame. Earlier in the week, he'd made his spring debut in the outfield, where he also showed better than expected. "Nelson looked pretty good out there and tracked some balls down," Baldelli observed after Monday's game. In particular, the former center fielder was impressed with Cruz's awareness on one play where he aggressively charged in to make a catch with C.J. Cron playing in at first. "If you don't break after that ball immediately, and realize that there's no one there for it, that ball could fall." Cruz showed his playful side in the top of the first when he trotted out to center field and started playing catch with "right fielder" Byron Buxton. This caused a few triple-takes in the press box, and even prompted the second base umpire to walk out and ask what was going on. Buxton and Cruz soon swapped back to their assigned spots. "Everyone was surprised, I don't know why," Cruz said in the locker room afterward with a shrug and a smile. Even if Baldelli was impressed with this defensive showing, it hasn't altered his plan to have Cruz "DH-ing a vast majority of the time." But, as the skipper noted, "It's nice to know it's an option." Ultimately, everyone knows that Cruz's biggest impact will come in the lineup. His prodigious power looms especially large with Miguel Sano set to miss at least the first month. Cruz's baseline production over the past five years – .281/.356/.541 with an average of 41 homers – is pretty much exactly what Twins fans are optimistically envisioning for Sano. In fact, it's noticeably similar to Sano's .276/.368/.538 line at the 2017 All-Star break, at which point he was on pace for 38 bombs. Should Sano return and find that form once again – granted, a dubious proposition at this point – the Twins could feature one of the most intimidating 3-4-5 runs in baseball with Cruz and Rosario preceding him. And either way, Cruz is extremely confident in the group around him... not to mention himself. "Very athletic lineup we have," Cruz opined, adding with a grin, "including myself." After all we've seen this spring, who could argue?

For his part, Gonzalez says he is starting to feel better at the plate following his late start. "I've been seeing the pitches better and slowing down the game," he said on Wednesday. "That's a good thing." His results offensively haven't necessarily been reflective. Through Friday, Gonzalez had managed three singles and two walks in 24 plate appearances, to go along with nine strikeouts (39%). It'd be nice to see him build some sort of momentum heading into the season, given that the switch hitter figures to play a pivotal role in the middle of the Twins' lineup. For what it's worth, the 30-year-old Gonzalez was slow to get going at the plate last year, posting a .217/.291/.321 in April and May before turning it around with an .805 OPS the rest of the way. The greater concern right now might be his glove. To my eye, Gonzalez has not looked very good at third base. I've only been here to watch a handful of games – and in that time I've seen a lazily bounced throw, a misplayed hot grounder, and an extremely errant throw charged as an error – but people I've spoken to that've been around much longer haven't been particularly impressed either. Asked how he feels about his defense at third relative to other positions, Gonzalez says he doesn't see much difference – "I think I can play in the infield, same level at all four (positions)," he opined – but his defensive metrics don't grade out particularly well with a -6.7 UZR/150 and -1 DRS in 576 career innings at the hot corner. His manager expresses "nothing but full confidence in Marwin’s ability to play just about anywhere on the field." "I don’t make judgments really in spring training at all, but watching the guy get his work in and watching his hands and watching his feet and watching his transfers and things like that, I think it’s easy to feel really good about him," said Rocco Baldelli. Perhaps Baldelli is right. Maybe we shouldn't make anything out of Gonzalez's spring performance. After all, Lynn and Morrison both played quite well last spring after coming aboard. I remember being on hand for his dominant debut against the Orioles last year, when he finished Grapefruit League play with a 10-to-2 K/BB ratio and just one run allowed in seven innings. Morrison, in a more extended sample, hit .290/.353/.419 over 31 AB. Neither of those impressive showings portended any kind of regular-season success with the Twins. So it's just another reminder to take spring results with a grain of salt. Still, Twins fans will be feeling a little more comfortable come Opening Day if Gonzalez shows a little more sharpness here down the final exhibition stretch.

"Knowing where guys slot in a game is helpful, at least generally from a parameter standpoint. Guys knowing what they’re preparing for and what role they generally play," said Derek Falvey on Wednesday. "But I know Rocco (Baldelli) and Wes (Johnson) have already had conversations with our guys around their role and the way they want to go about it." The head Twins front office exec continued: "A few of our guys know they’re going to pitch in the back end of games, and that could eventually evolve into a more set person as we go. But as it stands right today, I don’t think Rocco is ready to name that. I’m comfortable with that if he is." It appears that Baldelli is indeed comfortable with this plan. To see a rookie manager eschew such an entrenched convention of the game is surprising and, frankly, rather refreshing. Many analytical thinkers believe that the save ruined relief pitching, and I am of the same mind. When you reserve your best reliever for the end of the game, you risk letting leads slip away at pivotal moments while he stagnates in the bullpen. Of course, just because Baldelli and the Twins are ready to enter the season without a defined closer doesn't mean it'll stay that way. The point made by Falvey is an undeniable one: relief pitchers like to know their roles, and unpredictability can lead to tension and frustration. As such, it is likely that Minnesota will eventually settle on a primary ninth-inning guy (though hopefully Baldelli will never be overly stringent or rigid in his usage). Let's handicap that race as Opening Day approaches. Here are, in order, the guys I'd expect to accrue saves for the 2019 Twins. 1. Blake Parker With so little clarity among the top candidates, it's pretty tough to pick a true favorite, but Parker is clearly in the back-end mix that Falvey spoke of. He is also an experienced veteran with a 2.90 ERA and 22 saves over the past two seasons. Parker has pitched well this spring with a 10-to-2 K/BB ratio and only four hits allowed in 7 2/3 innings, so his manager has to be feeling confident in what he's seen. 2. Trevor Hildenberger From my view, Hildenberger is the best choice to handle the ninth on a regular basis. He throws strikes and gets grounders, making it tough for opponents to string together rallies and post crooked numbers against him. In his first 73 appearances as a Twin, spanning about one calendar year, Hildenberger allowed multiple runs in an outing only five times. Of course, he then did so 10 times in his final 37 appearances last season, so he's got to regain the team's confidence. If and when he settles back into his groove, I think he's the guy. 3. Trevor May May finished the 2018 season as closer and looked damn good in that role, converting three straight saves in the waning days of September and not allowing so much as a hit in any of them. He's the kind of strike-throwing and bat-missing force that can offer safety with slim leads in the ninth. But there are two issues at play: 1) When he's on his game, he's also the kind of gas-hurling force you want to unleash in the highest-leverage of spots, which aren't always the ninth, and 2) He hasn't been on his game of late, with four walks and five hits allowed in 2 2/3 innings over his past four appearances. He looked noticeably flustered while struggling to find the zone on Wednesday. With a well established guy, you'd make nothing out of a brief ugly stretch late in exhibition play. But May is not that. 4. Taylor Rogers He is Minnesota's best reliever. I don't think there's any question about that. So in a very traditional sense he'd be the logical pick for closer. But it seems telling that, even while he was almost completely untouchable during the second half last year, the Twins never really gave him a look as Rodney's replacement. That's because – more than anyone else in this unit – he's the guy you want to roll out in those most crucial of spots: runners on, big bopper coming up to the plate. Last year Rogers had the ninth-highest Win Probability Added among all MLB relievers, illustrating the way he thrived in leverage. Perhaps most importantly, he is absolute death to left-handers (allowed ZERO extra-base hits against them in 110 PA last year) so the Twins will want to have him available for key matchups. WIth that being said, I expect he'll get a few save chances in situations where two or three lefty hitters are due up in the ninth. That's the beauty of staying open-minded with this role. 5. Fernando Romero Down the line, I believe the Twins envision Romero taking over as their long-term closer. They see him as a big, overpowering, imposing presence with the "bulldog" mentality that teams love at the end of games. Kenley Jansen is one name I've heard thrown around as a (very optimistic) comp. And while that might be a bit of a stretch, Romero does fit all of the aforementioned descriptors, and the idea of his stuff playing up in the late innings caused many (including myself) to think it might happen quickly. Falvey threw some cold water on that hype on Wednesday. "I don't know that we were viewing him as the back-end guy right at the outset," he said. "A lot of people think he had the stuff for it and the ability. I think you grow into those roles." The CBO mentioned Romero's name in the same breath as Adalberto Mejia, so it sounds like a middle-inning longman role might be more likely out of the gate – IF he makes the team. That's now somewhat in doubt, because while Falvey was holding court with media amidst Wednesday's game, Romero was getting torched for a second straight outing. He's suddenly lost his ability to find the zone. And while it's only spring training, the same thing applies as with May; more so, in fact. Romero doesn't have any track record as a reliever, so the Twins could very well send him down to get a little more acclimated. 6. Addison Reed When Falvey was asked whether fans should expect anyone other than Miguel Sano and Gabriel Moya (who's battling shoulder tightness) to open on the Injured List, he mentioned that it's "possible there may be one more in that group," and then grinned conspicuously, which seemed to indicate there will definitely be (at least) one more in that group. Some of us inferred he was talking about Reed, because the guy hasn't looked right all spring after not looking right for most of 2018. If healthy and throwing well, Reed would be at the top of this list, since he's a veteran with an excellent track record and plenty of history closing games (125 career saves). But he's very far from throwing well right now, with 10 earned runs allowed in 5 1/3 innings this spring, and given that an offseason of rest didn't seem to help much, it's tough to imagine what non-surgical solution is going to get him back on track at this point. 7. Ryne Harper The sleeper. Enjoying a great spring, his odds of making the bullpen are greatly bolstered if Reed and Romero (or Matt Magill, who may also be ailing since he hasn't pitched in a week) do not. Harper's buzz isn't entirely a result of his strong work in eight innings this spring (11 strikeouts, zero walks, zero earned runs); he was also quite impressive between Double-A and Triple-A last year, posting an 86-to-10 K/BB ratio with only two homers allowed in 65 innings. Granted, he also turns 30 next Tuesday and hasn't yet pitched in the majors, which is why the sleeper label needs to be strongly emphasized. But if he shows well early, reserving him for those less intense save opportunities (multi-run leads, or bottom part of the order due up) would make plenty of sense, and would enable Baldelli to focus on keeping his most powerful arms available to put out fires.

Austin is among the Twins leaders in Grapefruit League plate appearances with 42, and in that sample he's batted .381 with a 1.024 OPS and three home runs. His easy power has been on display once again coming off a season where he launched 17 bombs in just 69 games between New York and Minnesota. Austin is out of options, meaning that he'll need to pass him through waivers in order to stay in the Twins organization if he doesn't make the 25-man roster out of camp. And since he's been outrighted in the past, Austin could elect free agency even if he goes unclaimed. So, if the Twins don't take the 27-year-old north, there seems to be a very good chance they'll lose him. And that's a disconcerting thought, because it's not hard to envision a scenario where he's one of the more intimidating (and affordable) power bats in the league over the next few years. Contemplating this dilemma, I asked two of the guys who will be primarily responsible for shaping the Opening Day roster about it. "Certainly it gets harder as you start kind of adding more people to the group of first base, DH," acknowledged Chief Baseball Officer Derek Falvey. He did note, however, that the flexibility across the rest of Minnesota's bench might make the notion more palatable. "We have a lot of multi-position players among the other bench-types that afford us an opportunity maybe, whereas a traditional bench you have your catcher, then you have your infielder, your outfielder, something like that." This is true. Through a pure roster-building lens, it's not infeasible you could carry Austin – while sending down a player with options remaining, like Jake Cave or Willians Astudillo – and still have all of your needs covered in terms of positional depth. But from a day-to-day operational standpoint? Things get trickier. "Tyler is certainly one of those guys that has put himself in a position where you are looking to find ways to get him in there," said manager Rocco Baldelli. "Because you know if you get him at-bats, that you feel good about him succeeding. So yeah, it's definitely something that I spend a lot of days thinking about, for sure." The caveat of his statement – IF you get him at-bats – reveals the ultimate problem. Here, the answers seem to run out. Where are Austin's at-bats coming from? C.J. Cron and Nelson Cruz are locked in as starters at first base and DH, which are the only positions Austin plays (the Twins clearly have no interest in using him as an outfielder). And both of those players swing from the right side, so you're not gaining any kind of platoon advantage that'd justify rotating him through those spots regularly. At best, Austin's probably starting once a week to spell one of those guys, while pulling in the occasional pinch-hit at-bat. Not only is this a suboptimal use of a roster spot, but it's also completely unfair to Austin. You can't expect a hitter to produce with such sporadic playing time, and this is quite problematic when said player's value is tied solely to his bat. From a logical view, I think we all have to acknowledge that as long as Cron and Cruz stay healthy for the next week, Austin isn't making this team. It's clear that both Falvey and Baldelli would love to keep him around, but neither could offer a specific rationale for doing so given the layout of the roster. And that's because there just isn't one to be found. The manager can keep spending his days thinking about it, but no answers are going magically emerge. So, with one week left to go before Opening Day, it comes down to figuring out what to do with him. Obviously the Twins want to avoid a scenario where they lose a talented player for nothing. But strikeout-prone sluggers with no positional flexibility aren't in demand these days. And perhaps this reality might portend our ideal outcome: Austin slips through waivers because other clubs are facing similar roster crunches, and he accepts the assignment to Triple-A because he recognizes an MLB job is not available at the moment. Minnesota's depth at first base and DH will look a whole lot better if Austin's a phone call away in Rochester.

Projected Bullpen: Taylor Rogers, Trevor May, Fernando Romero, Blake Parker, Addison Reed, Adalberto Mejia, Matt Magill Depth: Trevor Hildenberger, Tyler Duffey, Gabriel Moya, Andrew Vazquez, Ryne Harper, Tim Collins, Mike Morin Prospects: Jorge Alcala, Jake Reed, Tyler Jay, Jordan Balazovic, Tyler Wells THE GOOD The Twins have no closer. You might be confused reading that sentence under "THE GOOD" banner but to me, it really is a positive. We have no idea what to expect from Rocco Baldelli as a bullpen handler, but at least the rookie manager doesn't seem eager to constrict himself to rigidly defined roles. Despite its analytical awakening, Major League Baseball has lagged behind in terms of relief usage sophistication, plagued by the "save" and its overinflated prestige. If he simply makes a habit of using his best available arms in the highest-leverage spots – a formula that hasn't always taken hold in a game ruled by conventional hierarchies – Baldelli could find himself with an edge over opposing teams that reserve their best reliever until it's too late. And on any given day, the skipper might just find himself with multiple high-caliber arms available. Rogers, May and Romero are poised to form a fearsome trio in the late innings. Granted, only one of the three (Rogers) has already established himself as a top-tier reliever, but both May and Romero show all the ingredients. May flashed overpowering stuff as a full-time reliever in 2016, though he was hampered by back issues and inconsistent results. After losing his following season to Tommy John surgery, he came back last summer like a man on fire, piling up whiffs with mid-90s heat and powered-up secondaries. In 25 1/3 innings, he held opponents to a .221 average with a 36-to-5 K/BB ratio. Romero hasn't officially tried his hand as a reliever, but he has unsurprisingly taken well to the assignment this spring. His ferocious stuff seemed to play down as a starter, so the Twins are wagering it'll yield stronger results in short stints – a reasonable bet. In nine innings this spring, he has held opponents to a .188 average and .219 slugging percentage with heavy sinkers in the high-90s. He could be a hell of a weapon as a multi-inning fireman type, which appears to be the role Baldelli envisions for him. Behind the Big Three, the Twins have a couple of veterans with strong track records in Parker and Addison Reed, though each is coming off a down year. Mejia has been a competent major-league starter and could be a nice asset as a long man out of the pen if his repertoire levels up at all. Magill averaged a strikeout per inning as an out-of-nowhere rookie last year, and has been touching 96 on the radar gun this spring. Hildenberger is the big-time sleeper here. When he's on his game (as he was for his first 70 or so appearances as a Twin), he brings an ultra-reliable mix of grounders, strikeouts and control, but he was not on his game in the second half last year. That might leave him on the outside looking in when the spring training dust settles next week, but don't count him out as an important contributor to this bullpen. It's also possible a non-roster sleeper in camp could find his way into the picture, either at the outset or a short way into the campaign. Harper is the current favorite on that front. Collins, Morin and Jake Reed have also caught some eyes. THE BAD The Twins lost a critical piece of their 2019 bullpen when they traded Ryan Pressly to Houston last July, and they haven't done nearly enough to fill that enormous void. There is one reliever in this group that you can truly feel confident in based on his recent history: Rogers. That's it. Romero and May are full of potential but neither has really proven himself. Addison Reed was a mess last year and has been this spring too. Parker's performance in 2018 was uninspiring enough – despite the 3.26 ERA – that the Angels non-tendered him, and he went unsigned for six weeks until Minnesota inked him to a meager $1.8 million deal. Mejia and Magill? Both are on the fringe of major-league viability. What's worse: the depth isn't really there to plug holes as they emerge. The best hope for an impact prospect infusion is probably Alcala, who came over from Houston in the Pressly trade. The 23-year-old possesses a high-90s fastball and a slider with the makings of an out pitch, but he was underwhelming and injured after joining Minnesota's Double-A affiliate so it's tough to view him as a short-term difference-maker. The relegation of Jay, the club's top draft pick in 2015, to afterthought status looms very large here. This bullpen seems far more likely to turn into an unmitigated disaster than a competitive advantage. All it takes is an injury to one of those key late-inning linchpins, or a couple of critical guys failing to assert themselves, and Baldelli will quickly find himself short on options he can trust. THE BOTTOM LINE Last summer the Twins traded away one of the 10 most valuable relievers in baseball (according to fWAR), whom they still controlled in 2019. They dealt him to Houston, one of the teams they will ostensibly be competing against for the AL pennant this year. The Astros just signed him to a two-year, $17.5 million extension, indicating he'll be a building block for their elite bullpen going forward. And most damningly, the Twins failed to replace Pressly during the offseason with any kind of proven, high-impact asset to bolster the back-end of their pen. Their lone addition was a 33-year-old non-tender whose guaranteed salary was docked by health concerns. Oh, and the guy who will be pulling the strings has zero experience managing a bullpen. Same for both of his rookie pitching coaches. By nature, bullpens are highly volatile and unpredictable. There was nothing Minnesota's front office could've realistically done to establish this unit as any kind of "sure thing," but their efforts to shore it up seem woefully deficient. They are pinning their hopes on a whole lot of gambles playing out right, and Twins fans are too jaded from past trauma to feel much confidence in that outcome. What's most vexing about this situation is that the Twins have otherwise developed a pretty solid roster with legitimate potential. There ain't much more frustrating than building leads and watching them slip away in the latter parts of games. Unfortunately, this club seems destined to make that a routine occurrence if their planned power trio doesn't gel in the late innings, or the various questionable parts surrounding them fall the wrong way. The good news, I suppose, is that it's easier to upgrade relief pitching in-season than just about any other position. *** Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Catcher Twins 2019 Position Analysis: First Base Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Second Base Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Third Base Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Shortstop Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Left Field Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Center Field Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Right Field Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Designated Hitter Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Starting Pitcher

Leading Off: Max Kepler Kepler has started 375 major-league games, and he has batted leadoff in a grand total of zero. In fact, it's the only lineup spot where he's never seen his name written in. But this spring he has found himself atop the order frequently. He was there Monday in Fort Myers, and he will be again Tuesday in Sarasota when the Twins face Baltimore. In the past, Kepler has profiled as a poor fit for leadoff duties, so it's easy enough to see why he hasn't been used there. But his progression last year – namely in terms of plate discipline and at-bat quality, with his BB-rate rising dramatically – changes things. So does the lack of natural leadoff options elsewhere on the roster. After the game, Baldelli made it sound like this new assignment might stick. "We saw this as an opportunity to get him into a spot where we could take advantage of some of his strengths," he explained. "He’s taken to it very well, he’s had very positive comments and remarks with all of us on the idea, and I think it’s something that we’re gonna see going forward." Batting Second: Jorge Polanco Polanco is the other most logical leadoff option, but as a switch-hitter with excellent contact skills, he might fit better in the two-hole. At least, this appears to be Baldelli's leaning. Polanco leads all Twins hitters in sacrifice hits over the past two years with 10, which is helpful to the extent his manager wants to use that tactic. Last year at Baseball Prospectus, Aaron Gleeman wrote about the evolving view of #2 hitters around the league, noting that impact bats have replaced the conventional "bat handlers." In a sense, Polanco brings the best of both worlds. He has strong bat control and can lay down a bunt, but he's also a discerning hitter (he led the team in pitches per plate appearance last year, surpassing even Joe Mauer) with some pop. You really couldn't go wrong with either arrangement of Polanco and Kepler in the top two spots, but I can see the wisdom in Baldelli's thinking. Batting Third: Nelson Cruz Pretty simple and straightforward here. Teams usually bat their best hitter and run producer third, where RISP opportunities tend to be most plentiful. Cruz is clearly the Twins' best hitter and run producer, averaging an .873 OPS and 93 RBIs over the past 10 seasons. He still hasn't gone deep yet this spring – his opportunities have been limited as the Twins have eased the 38-year-old into action – but he came very close on Monday, driving a ball to the deepest part of the park in left-center and settling for an RBI double off the wall. Watching the guy take a few rounds of batting practice will leave no doubt that his prodigious power is still very much intact. Batting Fourth: Eddie Rosario Last spring, I noted that Rosario doesn't really fit the physical mold of a cleanup hitter. But Baldelli, like Paul Molitor before him, looks at Rosie and sees one. He might not have the imposing stature of a Cruz or Miguel Sano, but Rosario's incredible power remains undeniable. He led the Twins in home runs with 24 last year and he's tied for the team lead this spring with four. Here's how his first at-bat against Red Sox starter Nathan Eovaldi went on Monday: Pitch 1: Rosario is just early on a fastball and sends an absolute rocket down the right field line, but it twists foul and sails out of play. Pitch 2: Called strike Pitch 3: Rosario drives another one to right, but this one stays fair and travels forever, eventually bouncing off the rooftop of a bar well beyond the fence He's aggressive and highly dangerous. It also bears noting that Rosario grounded into just three double plays in 133 opportunities last year – the lowest percentage (3%) on the team after Robbie Grossman and Tyler Austin. So that's handy when coming up after potentially your three best OBP guys. Batting Fifth: Marwin Gonzalez On the surface, this seems like a somewhat odd choice. Gonzalez isn't the type of pure slugger you often find in the fifth spot in the order, but he does have power – he hit 16 homers last year after launching a career-high 23 in 2017. More importantly, he's a solid all-around switch hitter who's equally effective from both sides (.740 OPS as LHB, .730 as RHB). This creates late-game matchup problems for an opposing manager trying to navigate the middle of Minnesota's lineup. Wanna go with a righty to try and neutralize Cruz? Okay, the reliever will have to deal with lefties Rosario and Gonzalez next. Want to use a righty against Cruz, then swap in a lefty for Rosario? Okay, now you've got righty-swinging Gonzalez due up, followed by two more RH bats. Batting Sixth: C.J. Cron Next up is Cron, who's coming off a 30-HR campaign for Tampa. While Austin has commanded much of the attention this spring, with his towering blasts and precarious roster footing, Cron has actually outperformed him with an extremely well rounded effort; even after Monday's 0-for-3, he is batting .333 with a .981 OPS, and his four walks are second only to Kepler (5) among players likely to make the roster. Last year with the Rays, a majority of Cron's starts came in either the #2 or #4 spots, so if he's hitting sixth for the Twins regularly that's probably a pretty good sign. Last year, the #6 spot in Minnesota's lineup produced a .662 OPS, and in 2017 it was .705. Needless to say, getting a bat like Cron's (.816 OPS in 2018, .772 career) in there regularly could make a big difference. Batting Seventh: Jonathan Schoop In 2017, his best season as a big-leaguer by far, Schoop posted a .338 OBP, buoyed by a .293 average. Those were both career highs by a significant margin, so even if he rebounds, it's probably more realistic to expect something closer to his career .294 OBP. He can be a potent hitter when he's locked in, but generally Schoop makes a ton of outs, meaning it's only sensible to keep him lower in the order. Batting him seventh reduces the impact of all those outs while still enabling his power to shine behind a string of quality bats. Across MLB last year, #7 hitters slashed .240/.307/.390. Schoop seems like a reasonable bet to at least approximate that production. Batting Eighth: Jason Castro This is simple enough. Castro is the least proficient hitter in the Twins lineup (though not terrible by the standards of his position), so you hide him near the bottom of the order. There's a case to be made for batting him ninth but, for the time being, I like the approach Baldelli seems to be taking there... Batting Ninth: Byron Buxton The #9 spot is sometimes referred to as the second leadoff hitter, because he will frequently bat ahead of your finest bats atop the lineup. Buxton showed again on Monday why he's the kind of dynamic player you want on base for guys like Kepler, Polanco and Cruz – he collected two hits, stole two bases, and also tagged up to take third on a fly ball to right. He's an energizing force at the bottom of the order. "He's a really talented guy that can just do so many different things," Baldelli marveled after the game. At some point, he'll hopefully move up to a higher spot. But given Buxton's recent history of struggles and lapses, it makes sense to limit his exposure and pressure out of the gates. And even in a somewhat reduced capacity, Buck can still be the most exciting, riveting, must-watch #9 hitter in all of baseball.

Projected Starters: Jose Berrios, Kyle Gibson, Michael Pineda, Jake Odorizzi, Martin Perez Depth: Adalberto Mejia, Stephen Gonsalves, Kohl Stewart, Zack Littell, Chase De Jong Prospects: Brusdar Graterol, Jhoan Duran, Lewis Thorpe, Blayne Enlow, Gonsalves THE GOOD It's been a long time since the Twins have boasted this kind of quality atop their rotation. Berrios and Gibson each ranked among the top 15 American League starters in WAR last year (per FanGraphs), and both are poised to sustain their excellence on the backing of legitimate high-powered stuff. Their respective bursts of brilliance were balanced by stretches of steady solidness, leading to overall results that were well above average. And each proved admirably durable, answering the call every fifth day and setting new career highs for workload while tossing almost 200 innings apiece. A pair of stallions fronting the rotation is nice obviously, but it's not unprecedented for the modern Twins. Two years ago they had Berrios breaking out alongside Ervin Santana. Going back a little further, to the last playoff team, Carl Pavano and Francisco Liriano presented a memorable pairing. But what the Twins lacked in both those instances was a viable third horse. In Pineda, they might finally have one. After rehabbing him from Tommy John surgery in 2018, the Twins are now looking to cash in on their $10 million investment from a year ago. When healthy, Pineda is a big bad man pumping mid-90s heat from a 6-foot-7 frame, piling up whiffs and strikeouts at rates that overshadow Berrios or Gibson. The back part of the rotation is less distinguished, but not without intrigue. Odorizzi averaged a strikeout per inning last year and was perfectly serviceable in his worst MLB season. He's playing for a contract at age 29. Perez seemed like a low-wattage pickup but is raising eyebrows with mid-90s heat (and strong results) in spring camp. Even when accentuating their positives, we must acknowledge the uncertainty with players like Pineda and Perez, which is why depth looms large. And while you can knock the dearth of established credentials in Minnesota's second starter tier, the reality is that this inexperience is a necessary evil. If calamity strikes the Twins rotation, it's a sign the season is probably not headed anywhere meaningful. In that scenario, the team needs to get extended looks at pitchers like Gonsalves, Stewart, Mejia and Littell. These are all respectable talents with strong minor-league résumés, ready for their MLB shots. While contention is a hopeful aspiration for Minnesota this year, the absolute imperative is to gain more clarity around what they have going forward, especially in a rotation that is almost totally undefined after 2019. And these guys are no scrubs. Each of them offers his own legitimate level of promise, especially with an innovative new pitching coach on hand. Stewart is a former top draft pick with sinking stuff as heavy as any hurler you'll find. Gonsalves has a 2.46 ERA in the minors and is catching eyes with increased velocity this spring. Mejia has looked capable in every MLB stint. Littell pitched his way to a big-league debut at age 22. Thorpe, who has yet to get his first chance in the majors, is another prospect with real upside who's close. I can't remember the Twins ever having this degree of first-level depth. If multiple injuries strike the rotation there is certainly no assurance this starting corps will fare well, but there will at least be value in giving starts to the replacements. THE BAD Unless Berrios or Gibson take a step forward, there's no real ace in this deck. The Twins are lacking compared to pretty much every other contender when it comes to a #1 starter. One of their highest-ceiling options is evidently out of the picture for 2019, with Fernando Romero billed for the bullpen. Even the best-case scenarios for guys like Stewart and Mejia and Gonsalves slate them more as middle-of-rotation guys than frontliners. It wouldn't be stunning to see Berrios or Gibson (or even Pineda) graduate to that top tier of starters, but there's no tangible reason to expect it. And realistically, the Twins probably shouldn't be counting on much from Pineda or Perez, given their recent histories. You might lump Odorizzi into that group also. Their extended mix of starting pitchers is respectable, and very possibly the best Minnesota has carried into a season since the division title days. But it's not flashy or fierce, relative to those clubs the Twins are trying to pass – namely the Indians, who project as vastly superior. THE BOTTOM LINE Among players lined up for the Opening Day rotation, only one (Berrios) is under team control after this year. The Twins have an option on Perez, which could prove sneaky beneficial given that he's only 27 and throwing as well in camp as ever, but we're talking about a guy who posted a 6.22 ERA last year. If none of the expiring contracts (Gibson, Pineda, Odorizzi) prove worth extending, and no one emerges from the crop of borderline Triple-A arms, the Twins will find themselves searching for pitching answers via the free agent and trade markets that they steadfastly eschewed this past winter. So the long-term outlook here is somewhat questionable. But for the immediate future, this team has no shortage of worthwhile arms to trot out for starts. You've gotta really lean toward the bright side to see a unit that's anything more than average, but if the offense holds up its end, maybe that's all the Twins need. *** Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Catcher Twins 2019 Position Analysis: First Base Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Second Base Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Third Base Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Shortstop Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Left Field Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Center Field Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Right Field Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Designated Hitter

Projected Starter: Nelson Cruz Likely Backup: Willians Astudillo Depth: Miguel Sano, Tyler Austin, Wilin Rosario Prospects: Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, Brent Rooker THE GOOD Cruz projects as far-and-away the best hitter in the Minnesota lineup. His production last year alone – 37 home runs, 97 RBIs, .850 OPS – towers over any single season on the résumé of any other Twins hitter, and it was his "worst" of the last five. Even conservative projections foresee monster output from the veteran slugger in 2019. He's 38, so there are naturally questions about how age might factor, but he hasn't shown too many signs of slowing down. His average exit velocity was fifth-highest in the majors last year, and while his batting average did drop off (the result of a career-low .264 BABIP), there were no major changes in whiff rate or push/pull ratio to indicate his swing was falling behind. Additionally, metrics say he's far better suited to his new home at Target Field than Safeco. So, from all appearances, it is go time for one of baseball's most consistently excellent offensive players. The Twins signed him to a stunningly team-friendly pact, so they'll have the option to bring him back for $12 million in 2020. Even if decline sets in rapidly for Cruz, or his sparkling run of durability (144+ games in each of the past five years) comes to an end, the Twins have no shortage of bats waiting in tow. Astudillo is just itching for regular ABs anywhere he can get 'em. If the Twins can find a way to keep Austin, he's a tailor-made slugging DH. Jake Cave, who figures to be a fourth outfielder, could form a semi-platoon as he slashed .287/.335/.509 against righties as a rookie. Marwin Gonzalez will theoretically not have an assigned defensive position after Sano comes back. And Sano himself has always seemed destined for DH duty at some point. Kirilloff and Larnach both loom in the minors. THE BAD The Twins seem to have landed themselves one of the most respected, feared and reliable hitters in the league, at an unbelievable bargain. Which prompts the question: why? Cruz turns 39 in July. While there have been no conspicuous signs of breakdown, he's getting to that age where it can happen in a hurry. This surely played a part in his lukewarm market. So did his inability to play any defensive position, cutting out half of potential bidders. But still, the man leads baseball in home runs over the past half-decade and he was a monster last year. He's been consistently dominant, and has a tremendous clubhouse rep. Not only were the Twins able to get him on their desired one-year guarantee, but they tacked on a team option to make it even more favorable. It might just be a perfect confluence of circumstances, where the market was weird and every other AL team felt good enough about their DH situations to pass. But until we see Cruz get out there and pick up where he left off, we'll have to wonder why the lack of demand. Though the situations are wildly different, it's hard not to see some parallel with Logan Morrison a year ago. THE BOTTOM LINE The Twins have come a long way since the days of grasping for straws at the designated hitter spot. They honestly would've looked pretty decent here without Cruz, but needless to say, injecting one of the league's most respected bats brings the team's DH strength to a whole new level. The farm system is chock full of upcoming quality bats with positions TBD, so even if things don't work out with Cruz, there isn't much reason for concern. *** Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Catcher Twins 2019 Position Analysis: First Base Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Second Base Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Third Base Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Shortstop Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Left Field Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Center Field Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Right Field