Nick Nelson

Posed this question on Twitter, so figured I'd ask it here as well: Who was the best Twins player of the 2010s, in terms of performance? Personally, I go back and forth between Mauer and Dozier. Mauer spent much of the decade as an average 1B, but did have a few more years as elite catcher on the front end. Dozier was heart & soul of mid-decade teams, and his 2016 was the decade's best for any Twin. fWAR totals are very close. Mauer: 24.0 (9 yrs), Dozier: 22.6 (~7 yrs) Thoughts? Anyone else who should be mentioned in the conversation?

Much has changed over the past 10 years. The fact really hits home when you consider that, heading into this decade, Target Field had not yet opened its gates. As we turn the page on the 2010s, I thought it might be fun to reflect on some of the best and most memorable moments through 10 years at The Bullseye. Image courtesy of Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports Much has changed over the past 10 years. The fact really hits home when you consider that, heading into this decade, Target Field had not yet opened its gates. As we turn the page on the 2010s, I thought it might be fun to reflect on some of the best and most memorable moments through 10 years at The Bullseye. 10: Outdoor baseball returns to Minnesota (4/12/10) On April 12th, 2010, the Twins christened their new ballpark, hosting the Red Sox on a cloudy and cool Monday afternoon. It wasn't the team's first game at Target Field (a pair of exhibitions against the Cards had been played there 10 days earlier) but this one made it official. For the first time in almost 30 years, Twins fans were able to watch meaningful baseball at home under blue skies rather than a Teflon roof. It was a crisply played 5-2 victory for Minnesota, keyed by Carl Pavano's six strong innings along with three-hit games from Jason Kubel and reigning MVP Joe Mauer. The Twins went on to win their first four series at Target Field and finished 53-28 (.654) at home in the new stadium's inaugural season. 9: Byron Buxton races for record-setting inside-the-park home run (8/18/17) As with many of the moments on this list, I picked this one because it is emblematic of the man behind it. Buxton has had plenty of amazing moments at Target Field since debuting there in 2015, but his inside-the-parker against Arizona in August of 2017 epitomizes the electricity and incredible athleticism that make him such a tremendous joy to watch. Blazing around the bases in 13.85 seconds after his towering drive caromed off the wall in right-center, Buxton set a new Statcast record for the feat, breaking... his own. (Of course.) https://twitter.com/statcast/status/898722220096212992 8: Ben Revere channels Willie Mays in center field (8/22/11) Target Field has seen its share of phenomenal defensive plays, and Mr. Buxton has been responsible for quite a few of them. In my humble opinion, however, none can top this dazzling catch from Revere, which to me is one of those "You remember where you were and who were you with when you saw it" kinds of moments. Defensive play of the decade for Minnesota, from my view. 7: The Rally Squirrel becomes legendary (8/21/19) The beauty of outdoor baseball is that it brings so many variables into play: wind, weather, and the occasional wildlife. In the first year at Target Field, there was the famous moth-eating falcon, which came to be known as Kirby the Kestrel. But the most beloved unticketed visitor waited nearly until the end of the decade to make its appearance: The Rally Squirrel. https://twitter.com/cjzero/status/1163990505140752385 He (or a cohort) had scampered out the previous night, during a losing effort, but this time the squirrel's appearance coincided with a big comeback and flurry of runs for the Twins, who rallied to blow out the White Sox and earn the newly minted mascot its nickname. https://twitter.com/fsnorth/status/1164018758052007937 6: Eddie Rosario homers on first MLB pitch (5/6/15) From the Department of Can't-Make-This-Stuff-Up: Rosario's big-league debut. Stepping up for his first major-league at-bat in 2015, with his family watching from the Target Field stands, Eddie offered at the first pitch he saw from A's lefty Scott Kazmir and sent it over the left-field wall. For fans, it was the perfect introduction to Rosario, conveying his confidence, aggressive approach, and flare for theatrics. 5: Brian Dozier caps epic comeback against Tigers (7/10/15) Two months after his splashy arrival, Rosario played a role in one of the most exhilarating victories of the decade, setting the stage for Dozier's heroics. The Twins, flirting with contention for the first time in years, were looking to finish out the first half strong with a series against Detroit heading into the break. They'd fallen in the first game and were at risk of another setback, with a 6-1 deficit entering the bottom of the ninth. Rosario delivered an RBI single to bring Minnesota within four. A bases-loaded HBP from Kurt Suzuki and two-run single from Danny Santana trimmed the Tigers' lead to one. Then the lineup turned over and up came Dozier – days away from his first All-Star Game – with two on and one out. Joakim Soria hung a breaking ball, and he paid for it. Any "Best Twins Player of the Decade" discussion should probably start with Dozier. He was the beating heart of those upstart, fringy playoff teams in 2015 and 2017. His 42-homer outburst in 2016 was one of the sole positives in a trainwreck campaign. Twins Daily named Dozier team MVP three straight times. That walk-off shot was perhaps the most transcendent moment in a career full of special ones. 4: Johan Santana is elected to Twins Hall of Fame (8/4/18) While it's fun reminiscing about the last 10 years, and thinking back to the days of Ben Revere catching a Vladimir Guerrero drive off of Carl Pavano, it does emphasize just how LONG ago that was. As we head into the 2020s, distance grows from a bygone era of Twins baseball filled with so many great players, moments, and memories. Johan's Hall of Fame induction in August of 2018 was a big highlight of this decade for me, because it channeled so much of the franchise's past into Target Field – if for one fleeting ceremony. Santana will forever be one of the great success stories in Twins history, and to see him celebrated alongside many of those cherished fellow fixtures from the late Metrodome run – Brad Radke, Torii Hunter, Michael Cuddyer, Eddie Guardado – was cool. Especially on a day where Jose Berrios, who is striving to inherit Santana's mantle (an ace that can ACTUALLY beat the Yankees in October), was Minnesota's starting pitcher. 3: Glen Perkins closes out the 2014 All-Star Game (7/15/14) When he retired after the 2017 season, I wrote that if a Twins Daily Hall of Fame were ever established, Perkins would be the first inductee. He was one of the team's best players throughout the site's early years of existence. He once bought a round of beers from the bullpen for TD Pub Crawl attendees. He's an amazing homegrown success story. Oh, and in his post-playing days he's now being described as "Minnesota's Ron Swanson." Sadly, Perk's career peak aligned directly with the grimmest part of the decade for the club. He was an elite closer on a terrible team, and his shoulder gave out just as the Twins began to finally emerge from the struggle. Perkins flat-out deserved to have things play out exactly as they did when the All-Star Game came to Minneapolis in 2014 and shined a national spotlight on Target Field. Trailing early, the American League came back to take a two-run lead, setting up a save opportunity for Minnesota's shutdown closer. Perkins trotted out to his mound, with Twins batterymate and fellow All-Star Kurt Suzuki on the other end, and retired the side in order to seal a win for the AL. You could have hardly scripted a better sequence for his All-Star appearance in front of the home crowd. 2: Jim Thome blasts first Target Field walk-off HR against White Sox (8/17/10) Choosing just one Thome moment (Thoment?) for inclusion on this list was a challenge. In his brief but spectacular Target Field tenure to start the decade, the Hall of Famer gave us plenty of lasting memories, which would largely come to define the ballpark's early legacy. There was the against the Royals in September of 2010. There was his the next summer, estimated at the time as the longest in the stadium's short history at 490 feet. There were his two jacks against Tampa Bay in July of 2010 to tie and then surpass Harmon Killebrew on the all-time home run list. But for me, nothing can beat the clutch tater that Thome thumped against the White Sox in August of 2010. With the Twins down by a run in the bottom of the 10th, the slugger launched a majestic two-run bomb into the plaza, notching the first walk-off home run in Target Field history. That legendary blast sealed a key division win for a team just three games up in the standings, and led to one of the best photos in Twins history. It's a tough moment for any other to top. More than eight years would pass before it finally happened. 1: Joe Mauer dons catcher's gear for one last time (9/30/18) A lot of things needed to go right, and an array of carefully crafted plans had to reach fruition, for Mauer's farewell to play out as it did. Dan Hayes meticulously detailed the story for The Athletic, and it's one of my favorite things he's written. When everything fell into place on the final day of the 2018 season, pure magic was the result. Mauer hadn't explicitly confirmed he was playing his last game as a big-leaguer, but that , and became crystal-clear in the bottom of the ninth inning. With the Twins leading 5-4, Mauer stepped onto the diamond in catcher's gear for the first time in more than five years. He tearfully saluted fans during a lengthy ovation, received one pitch from Matt Belisle, and then walked off Target Field into the proverbial sunset, leaving behind an extraordinary 15-year career. https://twitter.com/fsnorth/status/1046519774287552512 Mauer's best days came in the Metrodome, no doubt. When Target Field was built, he was widely viewed as the best player in the AL, if not in all of baseball, a distinction he wouldn't hold onto for long. In the eyes of many, the portion of his career spent in Target Field will always be associated more with bilateral leg weakness and concussions and production that failed to live up to his mega-contract, signed a month before the park opened. But don't overlook the many moments he left his mark on Target Field. There was the in May of 2017. The ridiculous catch behind the foul net in 2010. The in 2018 – a seeing-eye single up the middle, naturally.It's only right that from 2020 forward, no Twins player will ever wear No. 7 again. Joe was one-of-a-kind, up until his last day and heartfelt final moments in the uniform. ~~~ I'd love to hear you all sound off. Did I miss any of your favorite moments? Would you change the order? Let's think back to our most cherished summer days as we experience the full brunt of Minnesota's winter. View full article

Then you have leverage to negotiate a long-term deal, or you get a draft pick. I'm just saying, I don't see the one year of control as a bad thing for someone who is something of a wild-card rebound candidate. Obviously the acquisition cost should be reflective though.

If the Twins find themselves in the same situation one year from now as they did with Odorizzi this offseason, is that such a bad thing? QO will be in play, which means another year or leverage for a long-term deal.

With most top free agents off the board, and Minnesota's pursuit of Hyun-Jin Ryu feeling somewhat hopeless, the front office will likely need to make a trade to add the requisite impact starter this offseason. Provided they are ready to pony up, the Twins could almost certainly acquire one of these two crowded-out left-handers. Image courtesy of Matt Kartozian and Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports With most top free agents off the board, and Minnesota's pursuit of Hyun-Jin Ryu feeling somewhat hopeless, the front office will likely need to make a trade to add the requisite impact starter this offseason. Provided they are ready to pony up, the Twins could almost certainly acquire one of these two crowded-out left-handers. Robbie Ray of the Diamondbacks was already being speculated upon as a trade candidate, even prior to the team's signing of Madison Bumgarner. Now, the rumors are ramping up, and with good reason: Ray has one remaining season under contract, and figures to make more than $10 million in his last turn at arbitration. This past season, Ray was above-average but not great, posting a 4.34 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in 174 innings. In the two years prior, his ERA+ was 134. He is an absolute strikeout machine, with the third-highest K/9 rate among MLB starters since 2017 (trailing only Chris Sale and Max Scherzer), and even during a relative down year in 2019 he still held opponents to a .234 average. He also, incidentally, has plenty of familiarity with Minnesota's new part-time catcher – Alex Avila spent the last two years in Arizona. To some, Ray wouldn't satisfy the threshold for rotation impact, given that he's been unable to pull everything together and pitch like an ace outside of 2017. But for me, he brings the upside and proven performance to be a transformative addition. There's no doubting his frontline capability. That argument might be a tougher sell with the other guy I'll mention here. Steven Matz doesn't offer the same clearly visible promise as Ray. In fact, he hasn't been very good since breaking onto the scene with a 3.16 ERA over his first 28 starts for the Mets in 2015 and 2016. But that ability is still in there, and he's only 28, with a fastball from the left side that sits in the mid-90s. Even with Zack Wheeler gone, the Mets have a more obvious rotation crunch than Arizona. New York has signed two free agent starters, Michael Wacha and Rick Porcello, to join a unit that already features Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergard, and Marcus Stroman. That leaves Matz – set to earn more than $5 million in arbitration coming off an underwhelming season, and two years away from free agency – as the evident odd man out. It'd be nice if the Twins could pry loose Syndergaard or even deGrom, but the Mets are unlikely to move one of their top dogs as they seem intent on making a push this year. Trading Matz, who currently appears to be their sixth starter, wouldn't inhibit that goal. It would also probably cost Minnesota significantly less in prospect capital than Ray. On that front, the good news is that New York's front office has plenty of familiarity with Minnesota's system, having scouted it thoroughly during Syndergaard trade talks last July. This could help facilitate a deal. Ray would be preferable to Matz, but either starter would add a left-hander with legit stuff to a rotation mix that is currently all right-handed with Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi, Michael Pineda, and Randy Dobnak. And in either case, it's pretty clear the Twins could make a trade happen tomorrow if they're motivated. And at this point... they should be motivated. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email View full article

Based on this story, it sounds like the Twins truly had no shot at Bumgarner. He wanted to go to Arizona so badly he turned down far more money elsewhere and took a team-friendly contract. https://theathletic.com/1469374/2019/12/17/the-number-one-place-the-diamondbacks-get-madison-bumgarner-on-a-second-hometown-discount/

Very reasoned and on-point take. I'd say this basically sums up my feelings. I have to believe that if the Twins offered the contract I suggested here, he wouldn't have opted for AZ. It's $10 million higher in total value, and it gives Bumgarner the chance to make a ton more in the first few years, then potentially opt-out and go sign with the D-Backs or whoever. If the front office didn't attempt something creative along those lines to lure him, it's disappointing. But it also wouldn't totally shock me if they did and he still said no. Like you said, we don't know what they offered, and by all accounts Bumgarner had his heart set on Phoenix.

According to Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com, the Minnesota Twins are finalizing an agreement with veteran reliever Sergio Romo, who came over ahead of the 2019 trade deadline. It's reportedly a one-year deal with an option. Image courtesy of David Berding-USA TODAY Sports According to Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com, the Minnesota Twins are finalizing an agreement with veteran reliever Sergio Romo, who came over ahead of the 2019 trade deadline. It's reportedly a one-year deal with an option. https://twitter.com/JesseSanchezMLB/status/1206719703684501504 Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reports that Romo's deal is for one year and $5 million, with a club option giving him the chance to earn $10 million total. https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/1206725275280662528 A reunion between Romo and the Twins has seemed likely all offseason, with both sides openly expressing interest. This qualifies more as another "stabilizing move" than an upgrade, but it's a welcome one nevertheless. The right-hander was a tremendous clubhouse fit and stellar performer after coming over from Miami in exchange for 1B prospect Lewin Diaz in July, posting a 3.18 ERA and 27-to-4 K/BB ratio in 22.2 IP for Minnesota. He'll turn 37 in spring training but doesn't seem especially prone to aging decline as a slider-slinging righty with an upper-80s fastball. Your thoughts on the signing? View full article

"Charlie Morton believes he found the perfect situation with the Rays. Not just in terms of money and location. Not just in environment and culture. In the end, he was able to check every box that was important to him." ^ The opening paragraph in the report after he signed. Again, free agency isn't an auction, there are other factors beyond money involved. Morton lives a half-hour from Tropicana Field. It's a perfect illustration of what I'm getting at in this piece.

Several teams and their fanbases came away from last week's Winter Meetings feeling happy and fulfilled – most notably the Yankees, Nationals, and Angels, who scored the top three prizes. The Twins, however, were left out cold in San Diego, underscoring the uphill battle they face in the coming weeks. Image courtesy of Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports Several teams and their fanbases came away from last week's Winter Meetings feeling happy and fulfilled – most notably the Yankees, Nationals, and Angels, who scored the top three prizes. The Twins, however, were left out cold in San Diego, underscoring the uphill battle they face in the coming weeks. By all accounts, the Twins entered this offseason – and these Winter Meetings – with legitimate intentions to aggressively pursue high-end talent. They've come up empty thus far, despite their efforts to follow through. The Twins reportedly extended to Zack Wheeler a nine-figure offer, which would've doubled their highest previous free agent commitment, but the right-hander chose Philadelphia. This exercise served to remind the Twins, and their fans, of two disadvantages working against the front office as it wades into the deeper waters: Money and Minny. Money. It's the sole focal point for some fans, which has become draining. Yes, the Twins (and many other suitors) were outbid for Wheeler. They never could've even dreamed of approaching the contracts handed out to Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, or Anthony Rendon. While this will inevitably invoke utterances of "Cheap Pohlads" from a certain crowd, those folks need to face facts: The Twins are never going to have the uninhibited spending flexibility of a Philadelphia, New York, Washington, or Los Angeles. Minny. Look, I know most Minnesotans hate this shorthand but I needed it for the wordplay so please let it slide. As much as I love Minneapolis, I recognize that we're not the most appealing destination for high-profile free agents and their families. Money talks, but it's narrow-minded to believe that's the overriding factor in every decision, especially for the most in-demand players. All four of the aforementioned free agents – Wheeler, Cole, Strasburg, Rendon – went from famed big-market cities to other famed big-market cities. Wheeler, from what I've heard, notified the Twins more or less that he wasn't interested. Lament and loathe these realities all you want, but they are the hindrances faced by this organization, and they've become unignorable in the early stretch of this offseason. As the latest example of uncontrollable influences, Madison Bumgarner signed with Arizona yesterday for five years and $85 million. That's a price point the Twins – who were said to be heavily interested in the left-hander – could've matched, if they pleased, but it sounds like Bumgarner had his heart set on Arizona from the jump. He doesn't have horses in the Minneapolis area. What are ya gonna do? https://twitter.com/AaronGleeman/status/1206377554820550656 Money isn't an overwhelming encumbrance – ownership's willingness to spend was made clear by the apparent green-lighting of a massive offer to Wheeler, which healthily exceeds the amount Bumgarner got – but the Twins can't endlessly outbid competitors with deep pockets and built-in preference. I'm not sure why fans would yearn for it. There's truth to this quote from Dodgers president Andrew Friedman a few years back: "If you're always rational about every free agent, you will finish third on every free agent." That speaks somewhat to the Twins' dilemma this winter. But it's much easier said by a guy whose virtually unlimited resources enable him to absorb irrational long-term deals with high risk. Friedman's Dodgers came up short in their pursuit of top names on the market, so now they've got money to burn as they train their gaze on the next tier of free agents, for whom the Twins are also trying to compete. Incidentally, Los Angeles faces its own perception issues (Rendon cited LA's "Hollywood lifestyle" in opting for Anaheim) but needless to say, the Twins will struggle to woo Hyun-Jun Ryu, whom they continue to target... https://twitter.com/JonHeyman/status/1205868202279886848 ... Or even a significant offensive upgrade like Josh Donaldson ... https://twitter.com/DWolfsonKSTP/status/1205934607264288768 I believe the Twins are serious about doing everything within their power to strike a sensible deal with these players. And maybe, with the right guy, they'll go well beyond the point of rationality to do so. (One comment from Derek Falvey at the Winter Meetings I found interesting: "Sometimes you’re a little more risk-seeking, sometimes you’re a little more risk-averse ... But I think we try to evaluate each decision on its own merits.") Maybe in spite of that, it still won't be enough. That is the nature of free agency, which gets oversimplified by the subset of fans who view every free agency pursuit as the equivalent of an open auction, where teams are raising cards and bidding solely based on price. If they can't find a fit on the free agent market, then the Twins will have to turn their full focus toward a trade. Here, the overpay will hurt even more, but that'll be necessary if they want to acquire a real difference-maker. Teams are protecting the kind of controllable rotation-fronters Minnesota desires more than ever, and execs have remarked on the generally steep asking prices. (The light return Cleveland got for Corey Kluber would seem to contradict this thinking... or maybe it just means the league is generally convinced the soon-to-be 34-year-old's days as an ace are finished.) A trade like Jake Cave for Elieser Hernandez could make sense on its own merit – just as the "stabilizing" additions of Jake Odorizzi, Michael Pineda, and Alex Avila do – but it's not the needle-moving splash this offseason seems to need. At least, not on the surface. And this is the developing reality Twins fans may need to come to grips with: An offseason defined more by savvy than splash. Few outsiders viewed the original Odorizzi acquisition as a bold one, but he quickly transformed into one of the American League's better starters. Ditto for Pineda. Last offseason's splashiest free agent pitcher, Patrick Corbin, certainly delivered during his first year in Washington, but his 4.8 fWAR ranked third among newly signed pitchers, behind the decidedly less splashy Lance Lynn (6.8) and Charlie Morton (6.1). The Twins were known to be interested in Morton before he signed in Tampa Bay, and had signed Lynn the previous spring (unseating Anibal Sanchez, who ended up being a key contributor in Washingnton's World Series run this year alongside Corbin). This front office has shown a keen eye for pitching talent, and a special ability to develop arms. Three years after taking over a 103-loss team with chronic and pervasive pitching issues, their 2019 staff ranked third in the majors in fWAR, right between the Dodgers and Astros. We should show some faith in their ability to find the next Lynn or Morton, while acknowledging their limitations when it comes to landing the next Corbin. Chilly as it may feel to some at a time where baseball's Hot Stove is being revitalized, the reality of that path as the one the Twins need to follow has become increasingly evident. (If you're feeling aggrieved about this and wish to find guidance, our guy Stu's got you covered.) MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email View full article

Fans and writers aren't "conditioned to protect the Pohalds' pocketbook." They are accustomed to the realities of this team and its constraints, and don't find it productive or interesting to reduce everything to "ownership should spend more." Instead, they try to operate within reality, analyze, and offer creative solutions under this framework, as Patrick did in this great piece. To answer your question, the opposite is pretty much true. Fans in almost every market feel their ownership underspends, hoards money, doesn't fulfill promises, etc. Some Mets fans refer to their owners as the "Wilponzies." Great comment. It's just amazing to me how we go from "Joe Mauer's contract is an inexcusable albatross" to "Sign Ryu or Bumgarner for whatever it takes." The disconnect here is that 2020 payroll isn't the concern. There is no reason to think the Twins have any major limitations in terms of spending next year. It's a matter of strategic team-building, and piling up payroll commitments around the time your core starts hitting free agency. Fans can afford to be short-sighted in this regard; the front office can't.

One example involving the Twins, in the last 2 years*

To the people who think I'm projecting some sort of super-theoretical, implausible upside... just take a look at the example referenced in the article. Anibal Sanchez has a 3.39 ERA in 300 IP since being signed under similar circumstances.

Those guys are still around. If the player you sign isn't up to the task (which presumably would be clear in spring training) you pull the plug and go with someone else. The Twins' impact starters (Graterol, Balazovic, Duran) are still a little ways away. I'm not concerned about robbing Smeltzer or Thorpe of opportunity for a few weeks. (Again, those guys will likely be competing with Dobnak for the fifth spot as is. You're telling me you want two of them in the rotation to start the year?)

Because any of these players, if they can stay healthy and/or iron out some issues, are vastly better than the internal options?

This is not being suggested as an alternative to signing higher-caliber starters. It's for a very specific usage; the Twins aren't going to sign Bumgarner to make 8 starts until Pineda is ready. If you'd rather go with an internal option to fill that need (while understanding that one such player will probably occupy the fifth rotation spot full-time), then... ok. I'm not really sure I understand it. Those guys will be here anyway, they're not going anywhere. These free agents are upside plays carrying almost zero risk. All are 30 or below and clearly talented. If they don't work out, those internal options are still there to fall back on. If the internal options are your first choice... then what? It's pretty said that many people are so singularly obsessed with finding a premier top-of-rotation talent that we can't even discuss creative solutions for filling in the fringes. These are still discussions worth having. Every roster spot matters.

In covering the handful of starts Michael Pineda will miss in 2020 while he serves his suspension, the Twins could simply turn to an internal option. Or, they could leverage their unique situation to lure that most intriguing of free agent specimens: the reclamation project. Image courtesy of Ray Carlin-USA TODAY Sports (Shelby Miller) In covering the handful of starts Michael Pineda will miss in 2020 while he serves his suspension, the Twins could simply turn to an internal option. Or, they could leverage their unique situation to lure that most intriguing of free agent specimens: the reclamation project. In general, Minnesota isn't the most attractive destination for free agent players who have their pick out of numerous suitors. But for one specific profile, the Twins are a particularly appealing choice. That profile? Formerly successful veteran pitchers with talent who are, for whatever reason (usually health-related), simply looking for a chance to bounce back, even if on a non-guaranteed deal. Anibal Sanchez was one such example in spring of 2018, though he slipped away. There are a few potentially similar names in this year's free agent crop that stand out to me, and I'll zero in on three of them below. Based on their track records, and relative youth, these free agents will surely have markets of their own – especially given the low risk – but the Twins can make a simple differentiating pitch: You don't even really have to compete for a job. Come to camp, show us something, and the gig is yours for at least six weeks – a rotation spot on a team that should be pretty good, with a cutting-edge pitching coach at your disposal. Once Pineda returns, if you've performed, you'll have a role (or at worst, you'll be an in-demand trade candidate). On those terms, I like the potential with these three. Matt Moore, LHP There are two reasons you might know the name. The first is that it belongs to the backup Chiefs QB who took down the Vikings at Arrowhead several weeks back. But that isn't who we're talking about here. Instead, it's another professional thrower, far removed from his glory days. When Moore arrived on the scene as a full-timer for the Rays in 2012, the left-hander was ranked by both MLB.com and Baseball Prospectus as the No. 1 prospect in all of baseball. He backed up the hype as a rookie, posting a 3.81 ERA and averaging a strikeout per inning at age 23. The next year, Moore fully blossomed. He won 17 of his 27 starts with a 3.29 ERA and was named to the All-Star team. But from there, it was all downhill. The next April he tore his UCL, requiring Tommy John surgery. He came back in 2015 and struggled mightily. In 2016 he returned to form somewhat, but was shipped from Tampa to San Francisco at the deadline. The 2017 season was a complete disaster as Moore went 6-15 with a 5.52 ERA for the Giants, who then flipped him to Texas for a minimal return in the offseason. The Rangers couldn't work their magic on Moore in 2018 as he stumbled to a 6.57 ERA in 102 innings split between the rotation and bullpen. This year, he landed with Detroit on a $2.5 million deal but suffered a season-ending knee injury in his second start. Through all of this, Moore is still only 30. His velocity hasn't diminished. And, to the extent that you can draw any positive conclusions from a two-start season, Moore did look sharp in 10 scoreless innings for the Tigers, allowing just three hits and a walk with nine strikeouts. Shelby Miller, RHP Much like Moore, Miller was a highly touted prospect who burst onto the scene at a young age and then faded. In this case, however, the drop-off was even more severe. A consensus Top-25 prospect heading into 2013, Miller finished third in Rookie of the Year voting as a fixture in the Cardinals rotation, finishing with a 3.06 ERA in 31 starts. He was good again in 2014, got traded, and then followed with a stellar showing in Atlanta: 205 IP, 3.02 ERA, 3.7 fWAR (and a 6-17 record, oddly). Miller was dealt again in the ensuing offseason – this time to the desert, where his effectiveness dried up. He posted a 6.15 ERA over 20 starts in 2016, and then threw only 38 innings over the next two seasons, besieged by elbow issues. Last year Miller inked a $2 million deal with Texas, but was cut loose ahead of the All-Star break. The Brewers brought him in for a look and released him a month later. It's not a good sign when both those teams fail to make anything work with an arm, but perhaps Miller just need another few months of rest to get right (and the Wes Johnson touch?). He'll still be 29 next year. Drew Smyly, LHP Smyly really intrigues me as a fit for the Twins. He struggles with one very specific thing – the long ball – and "struggles" is putting it lightly. In 2016 with Tampa, the southpaw allowed 32 home runs over 175 innings. His HR/9 rate (1.64) was fourth-highest in baseball. He then missed the next two seasons entirely due to injuries (including Tommy John). When he returned this year, he once again gave up 32 home runs, but this time in just 114 innings for the Rangers and Phillies – a league-leading 2.5 HR/9 rate. When you get past the egregious gopher ball woes... there's definitely something here. Through his struggles this year, Smyly struck out 120 batters in 114 innings with his quality cutter-curve mix. The former second-round draft pick was once a young standout for the Tigers and Rays, posting a 3.24 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 395 innings over his first four campaigns. The Twins have some cred when it comes to curing the home run bug. Smyly's former rotation-mate with the Rays, Jake Odorizzi, came to Minnesota and turned that same weakness into a strength. Historically HR-prone Michael Pineda also seemed to turn a corner midway through his Twins tenure, allowing 14 bombs in his first 10 starts this year and nine in his last 16. As a staff, Minnesota had the fourth-lowest HR rate in the majors despite ranking 24th in grounders. They're doing something right. Smyly's a gamble, just as Miller and Moore would be. But in each case, there's a non-trivial chance the Twins come up with a real asset by opening the floor to a quarter-season audition as they await Pineda's activation. Which one of these three interests you most? Or is there another reclamation project with real upside that strikes your fancy as an early-season plug? MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email View full article

Minnesota's interest in Madison Bumgarner is very real, based on what Jon Heyman is hearing at the Winter Meetings. However, he adds that location and league are working against the Twins. (Note: not money.) Of note: Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area intriguingly chimes in: "Some people who know Bumgarner have pointed to Twins as a nice landing spot. He loves to hit but won’t make a big deal out of it if he’s in AL." Could the Twins make it happen with Bumgarner this week? It sounds like the Dodgers have turned their attention to him, with Cole off the board.

It might be a stretch to say Michael Pineda was pitching like an ace before being hit with a season-ending suspension. But it's definitely no stretch to say that he had become the team's best starter, and was shaping up as a credible choice to start Game 1 of a playoff series. Now, Big Mike is back, on a deal that seems almost too good to be true. Image courtesy of David Berding, USA Today It might be a stretch to say Michael Pineda was pitching like an ace before being hit with a season-ending suspension. But it's definitely no stretch to say that he had become the team's best starter, and was shaping up as a credible choice to start Game 1 of a playoff series. Now, Big Mike is back, on a deal that seems almost too good to be true. When the Twins originally signed Pineda, almost exactly two years ago, the appeal was obvious: frontline upside at a very good value, with the caveat of a built-in delay. Now, the same dynamics are essentially at play, except the wait is much shorter and the payoff is much less theoretical. This time around, the Twins aren't gambling on Pineda returning after a full year off and multiple surgery recoveries. He was healthy and strong before the suspension dropped in September, and while no one would frame his costly lapse as a good thing, there is a clear benefit in terms of workload management. Pineda threw 96 innings for the Yankees in 2017 before requiring Tommy John surgery. He spent most of 2018 on the rehab trail, totaling only 12 innings in the minors before suffering a season-ending knee injury. Due to this lack of build-up, the Twins were very cautious with the right-hander's workload in 2019 – he reached triple-digit pitch counts only twice in 26 starts, and had multiple phantom stints on the injured list – but despite these efforts, he was on track to approach his previous career high (175 IP, in 2016). At that point, you're worried about how the arm is going to hold up in the highest-stress of settings – the postseason – while entering unprecedented territory for innings pitched. Now, with this prorated deal, the innings management basically takes care of itself. Pineda's late start means his innings cap for the regular season is around 150, helping him stay strong into October. With two reigning All-Star starters already locked in, and plenty of flexibility to add more, the Twins can now view Pineda as an impactful low-cost reinforcement for the back of the rotation rather than a critical linchpin for the top. It took Pineda a while to settle into his groove this year – understandable given the layoff – but after shaking off some early long-ball issues, his consistency was unparalleled on the staff. After the end of April, Pineda posted a 3.46 ERA and 1.08 WHIP over 117 innings, adding a spectacular 118-to-22 K/BB ratio. He allowed more than three earned runs just twice in 20 starts over this span, with the Twins going 13-7. That overall level of performance would make Pineda one of the best No. 3/4 starters for any rotation in the American League. But it sure feels like he has another level, and was just beginning to unlock it before his season reached a sudden halt. In his final 10 starts he went 6-1 with a 2.88 ERA. In his two September turns just before the suspension, he struck out 19 over 12 frames. The Twins' offseason will be a massive letdown if they don't add at least one more starter who slots ahead of Pineda on paper. But it's entirely possible Pineda emerges as a No. 2 or even No. 1 caliber piece in the rotation – I mean, he's already pretty much done it, ranking among the AL's top dozen starters in fWAR over his final 20 starts of 2019. Pineda's 5.0 K/BB ratio in 2019 was bested by only these eight bona fide studs: Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Shane Bieber, Zack Greinke, Walker Buehler, Jacob deGrom. For anyone who feels a player is irredeemably sullied after a PED-related ban, I call your attention to Jorge Polanco and Nelson Cruz, who moved past such mistakes to become arguably the team's two most valuable players in 2019. Pineda's transgression was deemed by the league to be clearly accidental. There's really no reason think it'll be a further concern. But if it does, or – more likely – Pineda's longtime durability issues resurface, the Twins are well-set with a contract that secures the mountainous hurler at an effectively trivial cost through 2021, at which point he'll be naturally built back up to a 200-IP workload. Pineda's deal almost certainly won't be the biggest move made by the Twins this offseason, but I'd wager we look back on it as their best. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email View full article