Nick Nelson

The Twins are going to make a trade this offseason. They will very likely make several. And you'd be hard-pressed to find a single player more likely to be moved – or at least dangled – by Minnesota than Eddie Rosario. What does his market look like, realistically?Yesterday Cooper Carlson published a good piece on Rosario's downward trend, which basically makes the case for a trade on Minnesota's end. But to sum it all up, here's why the Twins likely view Rosario as an expendable piece: Top prospects Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach and Brent Rooker have all reached either Triple-A or Double-A. It's all but certain at least one of these advanced bats will be ready for the big-leagues by the middle of next summer, if not sooner.Jake Cave and LaMonte Wade, Jr. have both proven capable of filling in until a prospect arrives. Marwin Gonzalez can also play in left. All are superior defensively to Rosario.Entering his second turn at arbitration, Rosario is only two seasons away from free agency, and his salary is going to rise significantly from this year's $4.2 million. The extent of his raise could become a point of contention, for the same reason his trade market is so tough to peg: Rosario epitomizes the philosophical divide between traditional and modern schools of performance evaluation.Batting cleanup all year for the most powerful offense in baseball history, Rosario launched 32 homers and drove in 109 runs, both career highs. But these baseball-card fixtures overstate the quality of his performance. Rosario made outs in 70% of his plate appearances. Statcast's Outs Above Average metric rated him as the worst defensive outfielder in baseball. He ranked 11th among Twins hitters in fWAR and his wOBA sat in the vicinity of Jason Castro, Ehire Adrianza, and C.J. Cron. Having said all that, Rosario's strengths and track record should not be entirely downplayed. Paul Molitor liked to say you always want one guy in your lineup who can thwart a pitcher that is totally dialed in. Eddie brings that "strike anytime" dynamic. When he gets on a hot streak, he borders on unstoppable, leaving pitchers with nowhere to hide. He's also a charismatic fan favorite, an energizer in the clubhouse, and a relentlessly fierce competitor. Although his reputation as Mr. Spotlight felt a bit miscast in the second half – amid futile "Eddie" chants – it is a well earned one. His pinch-hit walk-off homer at Target Field and game-ending gundown at Fenway were among the unforgettable 2019 highlights. He batted .340 with runners in scoring position and had a .983 OPS in Close & Late situations. Count the Twins and their analytically-inclined rookie manager among those who buy into Rosario's mystique: Rocco Baldelli wrote Rosario's name into the cleanup spot for all but five of his starts (he batted third in those). To what extent is this sentiment shared around the league? Do other increasingly sophisticated front offices view Rosario as a player whose presence and impact transcend the overall numbers and analytical conventions? It's no secret to anyone that his defense and speed have declined sharply, but Eddie is still only 28. His athleticism is still high, and he hasn't quite reached his ceiling. Any team acquiring him gets the two final years of his 20s. It seems fair to say that Rosario will be an appealing trade target – for the right buyer – but his market will be tempered. Who is that right buyer, and what might they be willing to offer? Let's try and whittle down to some prospective trade partners that make sense. Presumably they won't trade him within the division. That removes CLE, CWS, KC, DET. It can't be a team that has no real hope of contending during Rosario's remaining two years of control. Cross off BAL, SEA, MIA, PIT, CIN. We'll dash every team that is already loaded on offense, and/or easily capable of spending freely to get more of it: NYY, BOS, HOU, LAD, ATL, CHC, WAS, PHI, NYM, STL, COL. Okay, that leaves us with nine teams. I'll go through them one-by-one to assess the specific matches. TAMPA BAY RAYS Tough to see the team that viewed Corey Dickerson as expendable giving up much for Rosario. This just isn't a Rays-like move, and they've got ample outfield depth anyway. No match. TORONTO BLUE JAYS I was tempted to include them among hopeless non-contenders, but they have enough young talent that they could turn the corner in a hurry, particularly if they address the pitching staff with gusto. Problem is, left fielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. was their best hitter this year, and right fielder Randal Grichuk (a very similar player to Rosario) is under contract through 2023. No match. OAKLAND ATHLETICS This one rather intrigues me. Oakland's primary corner outfielders – Robbie Grossman and Stephen Piscotty – combined for 19 homers and 1.4 fWAR in 2019. The A's have no outfielders among their top eight prospects, per MLB Pipeline. There's a fairly obvious need here, and acquiring Rosario would enable them to make an impact add without tying themselves up in a bulky free-agent contract. The A's are deep in arms that could appeal to the Twins. Maybe Chris Bassitt? Keep in mind that Rosario is pretty much the antithesis of a Billy Beane "Moneyball" specimen.. TEXAS RANGERS I'm sure Eddie would LOVE to play in this park 160 times before hitting free agency. He's a career .328/.349/.517 hitter in Arlington, a notorious hitter's haven when the temps heat up. Unfortunately for him, it's tough to see the Rangers having a need, with solid corner outfield depth headed by Joey Gallo and Willie Calhoun. No match. LOS ANGELES ANGELS Hmmmm. Urgency is increasing for the Angels to do SOMETHING during Mike Trout's fleeting prime, lest they carry the burden of wasting one of baseball's greatest careers ever. Kole Calhoun is a free agent. They're gonna making some moves to set up new manager Joe Maddon for success; wouldn't be crazy to see a Rosario acquisition among them. Would reliever Cam Bedrosian plus a low-level prospect be a sensible return? MILWAUKEE BREWERS The thought of Rosario playing opposite Christian Yelich is fun. Only one problem: Ryan Braun, who remains under contract through next year, with a 2021 option. No match. ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS Rosario's old partner in the Ed-n-Eddie duo, Eduardo Escobar, thrived during his first year in the desert with 35 homers and 118 RBIs. The D-backs, who sorely lacked for corner OF punch this year, could well be interested in reuniting them. Were Arizona to be open to something involving closer Archie Bradley, who like Rosie has two years of control remaining, this could be a good fit. SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS If there's no bad blood from the Sam Dyson fiasco, this could work. I'm not sure the Twins would be enticed by anyone on San Francisco's big-league roster, but the Giants have a number of promising arms in the minors – some close to MLB-ready. SAN DIEGO PADRES Over the past two winters, the Padres invested $450 million Eric Hosmer and Manny Machado. The returns thus far have been less than great. Nevertheless, GM A.J. Preller is now tasked with building around them in a reasonably efficient way. Above all, this team needs cost-efficient offensive production, although their decision to give up Franmil Reyes at the deadline in July clashes with this assumption. If they're high on Rosario, I'm sure they could easily put together a package of arms to make it worth Minnesota's while. If you had to put your money a landing spot for Rosario, where would it be? (And that can definitely include "Minnesota.") Click here to view the article

The World Series might end on Tuesday night. The release of the 2020 Offseason Handbook is imminent. Today, we're providing a glimpse of everything that awaits in this robust guide to the months ahead.We are working hard to finish up this year's edition of our annual Offseason Handbook. It will be released to preorders later this week. Anyone who does NOT preorder by the last out will have to wait unhappily for an extra three days. So preorder your digital copy now, and join the early birds. (Disclosure: If you do choose to wait, you can download it free, or $1, or $5, instead of paying the $10 preorder minimum. Pay whatever you're comfortable with, including nothing. We just want you to get it.) Here's what you'll find inside this downloadable PDF once it hits your inbox: Foreword, by R.T. Rybak: We sampled the former Minnneapolis mayor's poetic prelude last week.Introduction: You can read the entire thing in our post setting up the 2019-20 Twins offseason.Five Offseason Focuses: These stand out as the five most critical areas to address in the next few months.40-Man Roster: A snapshot of the Twins' roster as it stands heading into the offseason.Organizational Depth Charts, by Seth Stohs: Breakdowns of the system's current depth, and most promising upcoming prospects, at each position. This is what you're working with.Arbitration Decisions: With 10 Twins players eligible for arbitration, we analyze their situations and project a 2020 salary. Stay or go? That's up to you.Payroll Analysis, by John Bonnes: Geek presents all the details around spending in 2020: what's committed, what's realistic in terms of flexibility, what's possible if the purse strings really open up. He goes into greater depth on the #3Pitchers70Million framework shared here.Free Agents: Profiles and blurbs on dozens of available free agents, along with estimated contracts. We dive deep on the clear positions of need – catcher, rotation, bullpen – while also touching on other noteworthy names.Trade Targets, by Jeremy Nygaard: The creator of our Roster & Payroll tool, Jeremy has a strong grasp of MLB rosters and their technical management. We asked him to come up with some trade targets and scenarios for the Handbook, and he came through with 16 names. You can warm up with my list of four off-the-radar pitching targets not on Jeremy's list."Could the Twins Actually Sign Gerrit Cole?" by me: Even if he ends up receiving the biggest free agent pitching contract in MLB history, it's not totally outlandish to envision the Twin as realistic players for the crown jewel of the market. I'll examine this topic from five angles: the player, the need, the fit, the cost, and the impact."Could the Twins Find the Next Gerrit Cole?" by Tom Froemming: Offering the flipside of the previous feature, Twins Daily's head editor states his thesis off the bat. "Gerrit Cole was built, not bought." Tom follows with a thoughtful look at how the Twins might uncover the next rotation revelation, rather than paying the highest of premiums."Breaking Down the Bullpen Picture," by Glen Perkins: Third on the all-time Twins saves list, number one in our hearts. Who better to weigh in on the state of the Minnesota bullpen than a man who was recently its chief ambassador? Since retiring two years ago following a 12-year playing career spent solely wearing the TC, the three-time All-Star closer now lends insight as a TV and radio analyst. We appreciate him weighing in on the current setup."Fickleness of Free Agent Relievers," by me: As we put together another list of enticing-on-the-surface free agent relief options this year, I felt compelled to include a "buyer beware" warning. So I went back to last year's Handbook and reviewed how each one panned out: where they signed, for how much, and the ROI on their cost relative to their production. Not to get all clickbaity but... the results may shock you."How Rest, Rocco and Recovery Won Over Mitch Garver," by Dan Hayes: The Athletic's Twins beat writer delivers an extremely informative story on the team's enlightened handling of catcher workload. You'll learn why Mitch Garver played in just over half the team's games, and how his initial reluctance turned to advocacy by season's end. This dynamic will greatly affect offseason planning at catcher, with Jason Castro heading to free agency."The Revamped Twins Pitching Development Engine," by Parker Hageman: Building a championship-caliber staff is about more than trades and signings. It's about embedding an infrastructure that maximizes what you have, and unearths hidden gems. Through his uniquely perceptive lens, Parker unpacks the franchise's systematic overhaul in arms development under Derek Falvey."Shifting Plans for the Twins Defense," by Matthew Trueblood: Improving run prevention isn't exclusively the domain of pitching. Minnesota's defense struggled in the second half of 2019, contributing to key losses (especially in the ALDS). Matthew, a staple at Baseball Prospectus and welcome addition to our writing rotation here at Twins Daily, submits a data-packed rundown on the team's defensive strategy.Twins Daily Cheat Sheet: The Handbook closes with an open-ended exercise. Using all the preceding information (plus your own unrepresented ideas), create an offseason blueprint that turns the Twins into a World Series contender, while adhering to reasonable parameters. Share it here on the site.Preorder your digital copy now and be among the first to explore all this awesome content! If you have any questions, check out the Offseason Handbook FAQ or shoot us an email at twinscentric@gmail.com. Click here to view the article

That's the problem in adding impact starting pitching via free agency. Which is the premise of this article! The Astros got Cole for 2 years and $20 million. The Red Sox got Sale for 3 years and $40 million before they extended him. Trades are where the value is found. If you think 3 of the 4 guys in the article are nonstarters, I won't argue with you. You're probably right. But the point is that the Twins should aim high, and be open to giving up a "king's ransom" for the right player.

I've heard his name mentioned a lot, but I guess I just don't see why the Rockies would trade Gray. They don't exactly come up with pitchers of his caliber often.

Sorry to hear that. Just trying to generate some fun discussion as we wait for the offseason to actually get started. If you want, you can submit some of your own names and rationales here in the comments. I bet people will be nicer to you even if they find 'em implausible!

Probably true. I'm not entirely closed off to that route. It depends on how much you trust the systems the Twins have put in place to continually develop that pipeline. Parker has a really great story in the Handbook exploring the transformation that's taken place. Count me as a believer.

Free agency is clearly an avenue the Twins need to explore this offseason in their efforts to upgrade the rotation. The financial flexibility is there, with plenty of impact talent to be had. But if the American League's recent history is any indication, it is the trade market that's most instrumental to building a championship-caliber rotation. What opportunities await Minnesota on this front?The Astros have assembled a two-headed monster atop their rotation through trades, acquiring both Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole. Last year's World Series champs, the Red Sox, landed their ace Chris Sale in a deal with Chicago. Boston's 2016 Cy Young winner Rick Porcello was also a trade pickup, but that year it was Cleveland winning the AL pennant, led by trade acquisitions Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, and Trevor Bauer. Previously, James Shields pitched the Royals into a World Series after coming over from Tampa. Free agents and internally developed talent have played a part too, of course, but it's fair to say that trades have been massively influential in building the rotations that are running the league over the past half-decade. In the 2020 Offseason Handbook (now available for preorder!), Jeremy Nygaard presents cases for 16 different players (mostly starting pitchers) the Twins could target via trade in the coming months. There are plenty of logical names on his list, and I'm sure we'll be hearing several of them discussed repeatedly as the offseason gets underway. Today, I'm going to dig a little deeper and highlight four players who aren't on his list, and aren't being mentioned much in connection with the Twins generally. It might be a stretch to believe some of these players are available (particularly the last one), but then again, if there's a will there's a way. 4 OUTSIDE-THE-BOX TWINS ROTATION TARGETS Chris Paddack, RHP Team: Padres 2019 Stats: 146 IP, 3.33 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 9.8 K/9, 2.0 BB/9 Contract Status: Under team control through 2024 Most of the names covered here will be established veteran players, whose value lies in their immediate and short-term impact potential. Paddack, conversely, is more of a big-picture target – the kind that jibes with this front office's thinking. He was ranked by MLB.com as the 34th-best prospect in baseball ahead of the 2019 campaign, and dubbed by Prospects Live as a future ace. Paddack looked the part as a 23-year-old rookie for the Padres, posting those numbers you see above. You might read those numbers, in combination with the five remaining years of team control, and ask, "Why on Earth would San Diego even think about trading this guy?" It's a fair question. Fresh off signing Manny Machado to a $300 million mega-deal, the Padres are not in the business of shipping off key pieces and rebuilding endlessly. Thing is, even with Machado, they still finished in last place in 2019 with one of the league's least potent offenses – both familiar scenarios. Despite routinely sporting solid-to-great pitching staffs, the Padres can't escape the NL West cellar, in large part because they haven't had a 700-run season in more than a decade. They need offensive firepower, and with Machado and Eric Hosmer consuming a huge portion of payroll for the next many years, they need it at controllable cost. The Twins can help in that area. Start with Royce Lewis, Alex Kirilloff, or Byron Buxton. Perhaps even dangle Max Kepler and his highly attractive contract, if the Padres demand proven production and durability. Throw in another top-tier prospect or two and you've got a valid offer for Paddack at the very least. The price will hurt, but he could be a franchise-altering addition for the Twins. Sonny Gray, RHP Team: Reds 2019 Stats: 175.1 IP, 2.87 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 10.5 K/9, 3.5 BB/9 Contract Status: Signed through 2022 ($10M/yr) w/ $12M option in 2023 Download attachment: USATSI_13408569_154617946_lowres.jpg Photo by David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports Formerly a young rotation-fronter for the A's, Gray took a major step back from 2016 through 2018, posting a 4.59 ERA and 1.38 WHIP during a three-year period that included a tumultuous stint in New York. The Yankees dealt him to Cincinnati in January with his value depressed, and the deal proved to be a coup for the Reds. In the National League, Gray returned to form and then some. He posted a career-high strikeout rate, made the All-Star team, and held opponents to a .196 batting average (.165 in the second half). Best of all, he remains under control at a reasonable rate for three more years. Yep, the Reds did quite well for themselves, and now they could complete the act by selling high after buying low. Cincinnati's 26-year-old rotation centerpiece, Luis Castillo, probably isn't going anywhere, but the club might be open to listening on the historically volatile Gray, who has three (cost-efficient) years left on his deal. He underwent arthroscopic elbow surgery in September, which adds to his uncertainty. The operation was considered minor, and if he continues to pitch like he did this year, the righty makes a quality complement to Berrios afront the rotation, while also leaving plenty of flexibility to commit big dollars to a top free agent who can slot ahead of them. Gray won't come cheap in prospect capital. If Eddie Rosario is in the package, it's as no more than an add-on. You'll need to be ready to part with good young talent to sway the Reds, who will surely have multiple bidders if they make Gray available. Kirilloff or Trevor Larnach might need to be in play. Chris Archer, RHP Team: Pirates 2019 Stats: 119.2 IP, 5.19 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 10.8 K/9, 4.1 BB/9 Contract Status: Club options for 2020 ($9M) and 2021 ($11M) Download attachment: USATSI_13236658_154617946_lowres.jpg Photo by Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports Whereas the Twins would be buying high on Gray, the opposite is true of Archer. Pittsburgh gave up big prospect talent to acquire him from Tampa in July of 2018, and the move has been nothing short of disastrous for them. Tyler Glasnow and Austin Meadows, whom the Pirates gave up in the swap, are emerging as young stars for the Rays. Archer has been sub-mediocre for Pittsburgh. A cautionary tale for a team like the Twins, to be sure. But Archer's still got some game in him, provided he can get past the shoulder inflammation that shut him down in September. At 31, he's far from ancient. He still brings heat in the mid-90s regularly, with a dirty slider, and struck out 27% of the batters he faced in 2019. (Michael Pineda led Twins starters at 23%.) I'd be curious to see what Wes Johnson and Company could do with him. Much like Gray, Archer has a very appealing contract, with two years of optional control at below-market rates. Unlike Gray, he likely wouldn't cost one of Minnesota's most coveted prospects. You'll have to do enough to entice Pittsburgh, naturally, but coming off a last-place finish the Pirates should be open-minded. Clayton Kershaw, LHP Team: Dodgers 2019 Stats: 178.1 IP, 3.03 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 9.5 K/9, 2.1 BB/9 Contract Status: Signed through 2021 ($31M/yr) Download attachment: USATSI_13490232_154617946_lowres.jpg Photo by Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports Okay. This one may seem like a reach. A healthy Clayton Kershaw has an argument as the best pitcher in the game, and maybe in modern history. He's already a Hall of Fame lock at age 31. And the championship-thirsty Dodgers have him under control for another two years. Would Los Angeles even dream of listening on this legendary southpaw? Maybe not. Probably not. But hear me out. The Dodgers have one sole aspiration that overrides all else: winning a World Series. The franchise hasn't hoisted a trophy since the Kirk Gibson Series in 1988. It's not for a lack of spending or trying. They've gone to the playoffs seven straight years, and continually come up empty in their quest. Despite the unparalleled excellence of Kershaw over this entire span, they just keep on falling short. And as weird as it is to say for an eight-time All-Star, three-time Cy Young winner, former MVP, etc.: Kershaw has himself been somewhat culpable. His body hasn't held up of late, as he's missed time in each of the past four seasons (albeit never hugely significant time). More pertinently, he has failed to match his regular-season dominance in October, and most recently he gave up back-to-back homers in the most crucial of Game 5 spots to effectively punch LA's ticket for an early exit in the NLDS. No one is gonna be fooled by this unfortunate blip, or by Kershaw's "career-worst" season (quotes added to emphasize the relativity of this statement), into thinking he's anything less than a premier starting pitcher in the game. The cost to acquire him would be off-the-charts – we're probably talking Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff, as a starting point. But, I dunno. if you're the Dodgers, and you have a chance to make that deal while reinvesting Kershaw's salary into signing Gerrit Cole or Stephen Strasburg... don't you do it? And if you're the Twins, ready to push your chips in, confident in your ability to develop more future stars... don't you do it? Kershaw is a legend in Los Angeles. Rightfully so. But the city's faith in him has to be at an all-time low right now. And the Dodgers are primed for a big shakeup of some sort this winter. They've been attempting to ride Kershaw to a championship unsuccessfully for a decade, and now might represent their last chance to recoup maximum value in a trade before he returns to free agency. The Twins would need to be supremely confident in Kershaw's ability to sustain ace-like performance, and keep his chronic back issues at bay. But if so, and the Dodgers are actually open to such an idea, this is an opportunity you can't pass up. Right? Share your thoughts in the comments and keep the discussion going by sharing your favorite outside-the-box pitching trade targets for the Twins. Why might they be available? What would it realistically take to acquire them? It's a good way to warm ourselves up for the 2020 Offseason Handbook, which those who preorder will receive this week! Click here to view the article

We'll get you squared away. I just sent you a DM.

Weird. If it happens again, do you wanna take a screenshot of what you're seeing and send me a direct message? We'll get it figured out for ya. Thanks!

We all know the quest for pitching is storyline 1a, 1b, and 1c this offseason. But the Twins also need to think about who's going to be receiving from all these hurlers, new and returning. With Jason Castro hitting free agency, and little certainty behind him in the system, catcher is definitely the next-biggest narrative after the arms race. For the soon-to-be-released 2020 Offseason Handbook, we enlisted Dan Hayes of The Athletic to give this nuanced subject the proper treatment.When The Athletic venture was first announced a few years back, I was excited to the core. Their model just made so much sense to me – subscription-based premium content, from destination writers. It was exactly where I felt sports journalism needed to go. I know all too well the fickleness of ad-based revenues, and the painful trade-offs that must be made in terms of user experience to actually monetize it. This was the future. Beyond the hope it gave me for digital sportswriting, The Athletic's advent also enthused me for a more basic reason: Twins coverage was going to get a major jolt of energy. As big-name hires popped up for various local beats, I waited eagerly to see who would be tabbed for the Twins, envisioning all sorts of fun possibilities. When the news finally came, I gotta admit: I was nonplussed. Who is this Dan Hayes guy? I've never heard of him. He's from Chicago? He spent a half-decade covering the friggin WHITE SOX?! I dunno about this... Fortunately, my initial reservations proved to be laughably misplaced. Dan soon became a regular must-read for me. He covers stories the other mainstream outlets miss (an aspiration that basically willed Twins Daily into existence), and he's a tremendous writer, bringing an excellent mix of reporting, analysis, and wit. Those strengths are fully on display in his feature for the Handbook, entitled "How Rest, Recovery and Rocco Won Over Mitch Garver." The lengthy piece features viewpoints from Garver, Rocco Baldelli and Thad Levine, and explores the very deliberate handling of a 2019 catching corps that set the major-league record for home runs. Here's a quick excerpt from his story: The third-year catcher’s showing vaulted Garver past Jason Castro this season in the team’s catching hierarchy. Yet even as the Twins are now faced with a decision on whether or not to bring back Castro, who is headed to free agency, Garver is clear about where he stands – he either wants Castro back or someone else competent enough to share the catching workload. “There were times throughout the season where you were like, 'Man, I kind of want to play right now,’” Garver said. “I feel good whether I'm hot with the bat or we're winning a bunch of games and we're on a roll. Those are the days you want to play more. But when you get to the end of the season, you realize how appreciative you were of that extra rest and being able to feel good when it got toward the end of the season.” Rocco’s rest and recovery model isn’t going anywhere. In the full Handbook, you'll learn much more about the strategic thinking behind this model, and how it affects the coming winter's decision-making equation. It's a great sampling of what Dan Hayes brings to the table. I subscribed to The Athletic shortly after he came aboard and haven't regretted it since; that investment feels all the sounder now that our guy Aaron Gleeman has joined him on staff. If you can spare the monthly six bucks, I highly recommend it. Unsolicited plug aside, we really appreciate Dan lending his skills for this product, and can't wait for you to get the full scoop. Preorder your digital copy now and you'll receive it early. Click here to view the article

Twins Daily was conceived, above all, as a platform to elevate Twins fan/writing communities. In line with this vision, we try to infuse our annual flagship product – the Offseason Handbook – with a variety of new and exciting voices. Today we're pleased to announce our foreword contributor for the 2020 Offseason Handbook: R.T. Rybak!First, a little background on Mr. Rybak. Those in the Twin Cities are likely familiar with the name at least, because he spent 12 years as mayor of Minneapolis, from 2002 through 2013. To say he was popular among his constituents would be an understatement – Rybak was elected in 2001 by the widest margin of victory in the city's history, and he won reelection twice in resounding fashion. While "three-term mayor" is quite the distinction, R.T. might characterize himself as a Twins fan first and foremost. He is an unabashed DIEHARD – exactly the type of passionate baseball nut this site was built for. Those of us who follow him on Twitter have come to cherish his whimsical postgame poetry. Examples below: We at Twins Daily are grateful and humbled to say that R.T. is also an openly avid fan of our site and community. (If you came to our Game 1 ALDS viewing party at Brother's, you might've spotted him and said hi.) When we asked if he might have interest in contributing to this year's Handbook, he was eager to step up to the plate. R.T. came through with a longform of his classic Twins balladry, this one serving to set up the many winter story lines as foreword for the Handbook. He knocks it out of the park. Below, as a sampler, the first three stanzas: If winter dreams have you pining For some new Twin-for-hire A free agent to help Beat the Yankee Empire Take the day off of work Stay home, play hooky Imagine managing the Twins Like Rocco, no longer a rookie Know offseason moves Have supporters and critics Get it right with this Handbook Filled with stats and analytics .... This is merely a small taste of what you'll find at the outset of the 2020 Offseason Handbook, now available for digital preorder! As R.T. alludes, we'll be covering all the moves and decisions that lie ahead in this critical offseason, with plenty of supporting stats and analytics. Secure your digital copy now, and you'll get it before it's officially available to the public (ETA is around the conclusion of the World Series). You can name your price but the minimum for preorders is $10. After the official release there will be no minimum. Click here to view the article

Now that the Yankees have been vanquished, soothing the postseason angst of the pettiest among us (myself included), we Twins fans can fully turn our attention to the coming offseason. Once the World Series gets sorted out, Twins Daily will be ready to deliver you the 2020 Offseason Handbook, and you can be among the first to dive in by preordering your digital copy now.This week, we'll be offering up a few details and excerpts from this year's Handbook to whet your appetite. We'll also be unveiling our lineup of featured guest writers, starting tomorrow. But today, we're giving you the full setup. The image above shows the introduction to the Twins Daily 2020 Offseason Handbook, and you can also find the full text below. This is but one page of many in what will surely be a robust read (last year's edition checked in at 72 pages), but it should give you a clear idea of the general angle and outstanding visuals you can expect. ~~~ Foot, Meet Throat In January of 2019, at TwinsFest, general manager Thad Levine grabbed a microphone before an assembled crowd of fans and addressed the notion of signing top-tier free agents in the class of Bryce Harper or Manny Machado. "My view is, the best time to acquire players of that magnitude is when your window to win is wide open,” Levine asserted. "Not when you’ve got your fingers underneath the window and you’re trying to jam the window open. I want to do it when we’re projected to win the Central and we’re ready to put our foot on someone’s throat." Well... here we are. The window is wide open, no doubt, as the Twins will be favored by most to win the division again in 2020. They already have a foot on payroll-conscious Cleveland's throat. The question, following another crushing postseason sweep at the hands of the Yankees, is how they can use their other foot to take the next step. As you'll learn in the coming pages, the front office enters this offseason with a wealth of resources at its disposal, with which to pursue a bevy of appealing options on the free agent and trade markets. As you proceed through this Handbook, you'll get a full lay of the land, along with analysis and breakdowns from a variety of voices in the local writing community (and even a former three-time Twins All-Star). This is your definitive guide. Dig in and craft your own blueprint for avenging the ALDS defeat and bringing a championship back to Minnesota. Click here to view the article

The 2019 Twins were propelled to 101 victories by a wide range of contributions, and that dynamic was reflected in our polling for team MVP, which brought out a crazy amount of variance from our esteemed panel. You can scroll down to see the individual tallies, but here's the rub: Across 18 ballots, six different players were selected at No. 1. And you know what? You can make a valid case for any of them, depending on your perspective.Here's a rundown of all the Twins players who received at least one first-place vote in our balloting: Taylor Rogers, ranked at the top of one ballot, was the glue that held a shaky bullpen together in the first half, and he remained steady down the stretch. He led all Twins pitchers in Win Probability Added and ranked second among American League relievers.Byron Buxton, also ranked at the top of one ballot, was arguably the biggest difference-maker for the Twins whenever he was on the field. They were a vastly better team with him out there, going 62-25 (.713) in games he played, compared to 39-36 (.520) without him – not including a playoff sweep where his absence was deeply felt.Mitch Garver, ranked No. 1 on two ballots, almost certainly delivered the most qualitative value, mashing 31 home runs and producing 3.9 fWAR in just 93 games as the Twins carefully managed his workload behind the plate. The combination of offensive and defensive impact he brought to the field was transformative for the Twins.Jorge Polanco, also ranked atop a pair of ballots, led the team in bWAR (5.7) and recorded the highest mark for a Twin by Baseball Reference's metric since Brian Dozier in 2016. FanGraphs wasn't quite so accepting of his defensive shortcomings (4.0 fWAR) but from any perspective, Polanco was adequate at shortstop and was the team's iron man, playing in 153 games and making 100 more plate appearances than the next-highest player.Nelson Cruz, picked as Twins MVP on three ballots, was a dominating force at the plate like we've rarely seen before. Overcoming a wrist injury that plagued him for much of the summer, he still bashed 41 homers with 108 RBIs while registering a career-high 1.031 OPS. He provided zero defensive value but the sheer offensive production and leadership were more than enough to offset it.Like I said, the Twins received vital contributions from across the board, and it's hard to single out one most essential player. However, the guy that ultimately rose to the top – and the only remote source of consensus for our panel, landing No. 1 on nine ballots and among the top two in all but one – is Max Kepler. Whether due to stylistic adjustments, changes in the baseball, or simply the developmental emergence of a 26-year-old with three seasons of experience under his belt – possibly all three – Kepler turned the corner in a big way: OPS+ 2016: 96 2017: 95 2018: 97 2019: 122 HR 2016: 17 2017: 19 2018: 20 2019: 36 fWAR 2016: 1.3 2017: 1.5 2018: 2.7 2019: 4.4 That fWAR led all Twins players, and was influenced heavily by his strong defensive ratings: Kepler posted a career-high 12.7 Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) and was credited with 10 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS), leading the team in both categories. He was exceptional in right field (third-best in baseball, according to UZR/150) and, crucially, also proved capable as fill-in center fielder – a role made necessary by Buxton's frequent unavailability. If the Twins don't have Kepler ready to step in for 53 starts and 459 innings at the position, Buxton's injuries take a much greater toll on the team. Speaking personally, this played a big part in my placing Kepler atop the ballot. But even when you take away that contextual wrinkle, Kepler was just a tremendously productive player all year long, setting the tone as unconventional leadoff hitter for one of the league's best lineups. He amassed 32 doubles in addition to 36 homers, drove in 90 runs, scored 98 times, and had the second-highest WPA among Twins hitters (behind Cruz). Unfortunately he succumbed late to a shoulder issue that had plagued him for much of the year, costing him the last two weeks of the regular season and seemingly turning him into a nonfactor in the ALDS, but the inauspicious finish doesn't offset the outstanding production Kepler delivered throughout the majority of a true breakout campaign. THE CANDIDATES It's an impressive bunch. Cruz, who finished second in our balloting, was officially named team MVP earlier this week and it's tough to knock that choice. Ultimately, Kepler's huge advantage in defensive value gave him an edge in our vote. Meanwhile, Polanco's defensive struggles likely dinged him in the eyes of many, even though he delivered high-caliber offensive output at a premium position – albeit output that tailed off in the second half. Garver, Buxton and Miguel Sano were bona fide stars when on the field, but a lack of volume detracted from the ultimate value provided. Jake Odorizzi and Jose Berrios got some love as leaders in a resurgent rotation, as did Rogers and Tyler Duffey in the bullpen. One nugget of the final tallies I found surprising, yet telling: Eddie Rosario, last year's Twins Daily MVP recipient, received only one sixth-place vote, despite putting up 32 home runs and 109 RBIs. The misleading nature of his raw totals didn't fool our panel, and unfortunately, probably won't fool potential trade partners this winter. THE BALLOTS Here’s a look at the ballots from our 18 voters. Seth Stohs: 1) Jorge Polanco, 2) Max Kepler, 3) Nelson Cruz Nick Nelson: 1) Max Kepler, 2) Jorge Polanco, 3) Nelson Cruz John Bonnes: 1) Max Kepler, 2) Nelson Cruz, 3) Taylor Rogers Tom Froemming: 1) Max Kepler, 2) Nelson Cruz, 3) Jorge Polanco Cody Christie: 1) Max Kepler, 2) Jorge Polanco, 3) Nelson Cruz Ted Schwerzler: 1) Max Kepler, 2) Nelson Cruz, 3) Mitch Garver Steve Lein: 1) Nelson Cruz, 2) Max Kepler, 3) Jorge Polanco S.D. Buhr: 1) Mitch Garver, 2) Max Kepler, 3) Nelson Cruz Matt Braun: 1) Byron Buxton, 2) Max Kepler, 3) Nelson Cruz Cooper Carlson: 1) Nelson Cruz, 2) Max Kepler, 3) Miguel Sano Andrew Thares: 1) Max Kepler, 2) Nelson Cruz, 3) Mitch Garver JD Cameron: 1) Max Kepler, 2) Jorge Polanco, 3) Mitch Garver AJ Condon: 1) Max Kepler, 2) Jorge Polanco, 3) Taylor Rogers Matt Lenz: 1) Mitch Garver, 2) Max Kepler, 3) Jorge Polanco Nash Walker: 1) Jorge Polanco, 2) Max Kepler, 3) Nelson Cruz Patrick Wozniak: 1) Nelson Cruz, 2) Max Kepler, 3) Jorge Polanco Thieres Rabelo: 1) Taylor Rogers, 2) Nelson Cruz, 3) Jose Berrios Sabir Aden: 1) Max Kepler, 2) Mitch Garver, 3) Jorge Polanco POINTS Max Kepler: 96 Nelson Cruz: 78 Jorge Polanco: 65 Mitch Garver: 51 Taylor Rogers: 31 Jose Berrios: 21 Miguel Sano: 18 Byron Buxton: 7 Jake Odorizzi: 5 Luis Arraez: 3 Tyler Duffey: 2 Eddie Rosario: 1 Previous Twins Daily MVP Winners 2015: Brian Dozier 2016: Brian Dozier 2017: Brian Dozier 2018: Eddie Rosario Click here to view the article

In many ways, the Twins have changed radically under this front office regime. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine ushered an era of historically elite slugging and high-velo power pitching. The team has also been noticeably splashier on the offseason market, but one thing that remains – and will always remain – constant for Minnesota is a foremost reliance on internal pipeline to fuel sustained success. Players like Luis Arraez are the lifeblood of this model. And if he follows in the footsteps of past TD Rookie of the Year winners, Arraez is destined to play a major role in the Twins' story for years to come.Since our site started handing out awards five years ago, the picks for top rookie have been Miguel Sano (2015), Max Kepler (2016), Trevor Hildenberger (2017), and Mitch Garver (2018). While Hildenberger has faded, the other three were key contributors to a 101-win team this year, with each ranking among Minnesota's top five position players in WAR. Arraez was just behind that pack, at No. 7. Sano, Kepler, and Garver are now foundational building blocks for the Twins going forward, and now the latest TD Rookie of the Year is poised to join this esteemed core. PROVING IT ON THE FIELD In some ways, Arraez is similar to our pick from a year ago. Not in terms of being a late bloomer – Garver was 27 by the time he broke through as a full-time big-leaguer, while Arraez is now firmly entrenched as a 22-year-old – but in terms of being slept on. Both players were somewhat overlooked on the prospect scene, due to ostensible limitations that capped their ceilings. For Garver, it was defensive shortcomings behind the plate, and middling potential with the bat. He dented this narrative as a rookie, and fully obliterated it as a sophomore. For Arraez, it's always been a lack of power and prototypical physical tools overshadowing his undeniably impressive production at every level. Following a spectacular debut in the big leagues, there's no more doubting the viability of Arraez's game. A DISCIPLINED HITTING MACHINE He's always been tough to peg. In our preseason prospect rankings, Arraez didn't make the Top 20 cut, falling into the Honorable Mentions; as Seth put it: "Luis Arraez gets his own category. While he isn’t a great athlete, doesn’t have great speed or power and profiles as maybe a second baseman, Arraez can flat-out hit. He has hit at every level." We weren't alone in our uncertainty on Arraez. He never appeared in a prominent national ranking, even after batting well above .300 at almost every stop in the minors. While Arraez's bat-to-ball skills and advanced discipline were always plain to see, the diminutive 5-foot-7 infielder packed little punch with the bat. Typically what you see with such players is pitchers at the highest levels attacking them and accentuating their weaknesses. Nevertheless, the intrigue was clear, and it prompted Minnesota to add him to the 40-man roster last winter rather than expose him to the Rule 5 draft. And from the moment Arraez arrived in Minnesota in mid-May, after batting .344 through 41 games at Double-A and Triple-A, it was clear he's no novelty act. Bringing keen discipline to an aggressive slugging lineup full of established big-leaguers, the rookie second baseman quickly carved out his niche, immediately dazzling with his tremendous strike zone control and ability to spray line drives everywhere. He batted .375 with five walks and one strikeout through 10 games, went back to Rochester at the start of June in a roster crunch, and then was back for good two weeks later. Arraez returned with an eight-game hitting streak out of the gates, including a four-knock effort in Kansas City, and that was that. He was an everyday player the rest of the way, supplanting Jonathan Schoop at second base in a season where Schoop hit 23 homers. Among players with 300+ plate appearances, Arraez finished first on the Twins in batting average (.344) and on-base percentage (.399). In fact, he ranked third and ninth among all MLB players with 300+ PA in those categories, respectively. As a 22-year-old. Among Twins hitters, Arraez swung at the third-fewest pitches outside the zone, but made the highest percentage of contact on non-strikes. In the rare instances where he chased, he got the bat on it. His astonishing 2.8% whiff rate was the lowest on the team (beating even La Tortuga), and in all the majors. GRITTY FINISH Betraying the notions of pitcher adjustments and regression to the mean, Arraez just kept on raking. He batted .438 in June, .321 in July, .293 in August, and .340 in September. He kept chugging all the way up until suffering a scary ankle injury in the season's second-to-last game, when he went down in a heap after colliding with Astudillo on an infield fly ball. Seeing Arraez carted off the field, tears in his eyes, was uniquely traumatizing to watch because he had ingratiated himself to the fan base so deeply with his infectious energy, amusing quirks, and consistently outstanding play. At that moment, there seemed to be almost zero chance he would be able to aid the club's postseason run, but in borderline miraculous fashion, Arraez got right enough in one week to start all three ALDS games. Granted, like many of his teammates, the second baseman appeared hobbled and at far less than 100%, but simply making it back onto the field is one of those things that strengthens the budding bonds of comradery. FUTURE FIT Rocco Baldelli mostly stuck with this plan of leading off Kepler and Garver this year, but Arraez sure has the look of a No. 1 hitter in the lineup. It seems likely he'll be there and starting at second base on Opening Day next year. It's also conceivable he could shift to third base, where he made 15 starts as a rookie, with Sano sliding across the diamond – if not next year then at some point. But one thing is for sure: Arraez is locked in. OTHER CANDIDATES As you can see by checking out the individual ballots below, Arraez was a unanimous No. 1 selection. Zack Littell was the clear-cut second choice with his 2.68 ERA in 29 appearances, including 0.88 in his last 27. Ryne Harper's inspiring first-half placed him third. Other deserving recipients of votes included Devin Smeltzer, Cody Stashak and Randy Dobnak, who all had encouraging showings on the pitching staff but didn't amass large enough samples. THE BALLOTS Here’s a look at the ballots from our 18 voters. Seth Stohs: 1) Luis Arraez, 2) Zack Littell, 3) Randy Dobnak Nick Nelson: 1) Luis Arraez, 2) Zack Littell, 3) Devin Smeltzer John Bonnes: 1) Luis Arraez, 2) Zack Littell, 3) Devin Smeltzer Tom Froemming: 1) Luis Arraez, 2) Ryne Harper, 3) Zack Littell Cody Christie: 1) Luis Arraez, 2) Ryne Harper, 3) Zack Littell Ted Schwerzler: 1) Luis Arraez, 2) Devin Smeltzer, 3) Randy Dobnak Steve Lein: 1) Luis Arraez, 2) Devin Smeltzer, 3) Randy Dobnak S.D. Buhr: 1) Luis Arraez, 2) Zack Littell, 3) Randy Dobnak Matt Braun: 1) Luis Arraez, 2) Cody Stashak, 3) Zack Littell Cooper Carlson: 1) Luis Arraez, 2) Zack Littell, 3) Cody Stashak Andrew Thares: 1) Luis Arraez, 2) Ryne Harper, 3) Randy Dobnak JD Cameron: 1) Luis Arraez, 2) Devin Smeltzer, 3) Cody Stashak Matt Lenz: 1) Luis Arraez, 2) Zack Littell, 3) Ryne Harper Nash Walker: 1) Luis Arraez, 2) Devin Smeltzer, 3) Cody Stashak Patrick Wozniak: 1) Luis Arraez, 2) Zack Littell, 3) Ryne Harper Thieres Rabelo: 1) Luis Arraez, 2) Ryne Harper, 3) Willians Astudillo Sabir Aden: 1) Luis Arraez, 2) Willians Astudillo, 3) Ryne Harper AJ Condon: 1) Luis Arraez, 2) Randy Dobnak, 3) Cody Stashak POINTS Luis Arraez: 54 Zack Littell: 17 Ryne Harper: 12 Devin Smeltzer: 10 Cody Stashak: 6 Randy Dobnak: 6 Willians Astudillo: 3 How would your ballot look? Leave a comment and make your case. Previous Twins Daily Rookie of the Year Winners 2015: Miguel Sano 2016: Max Kepler 2017: Trevor Hildenberger 2018: Mitch Garver Click here to view the article

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